Operation Sindoor - Analysis on Future Scenarios

[williams]

I'm not sure if I'm getting accurate information, but it looks like India is inducting very potent long-range anti-ship and anti-submarine missiles. The ramjet 155mm artillery shells in a few years will render much more of Pakistan within the range of cross-border firing. Indian air offensive and defensive systems already are very formidable.

I imagine that technology to reliably intercept hypersonic missiles is years away (if at all possible) and Pakistan will need to get it from China or the US, it cannot achieve those technologies on their own.

It seems to me that Pakistan's only reliable way to inflict damage on India before its defense abilities get knocked out in Op Sindoor 2 is to have an effective large sleeper cell network in India that can kill people and blow up things. For that, the eastern borders of India are of prime importance - penetration through the western borders of India is much harder, so I believe.

Therefore, the center of action is going to switch to Bangladesh, and Op Sindoor 2 will be primarily intelligence agencies fighting it out in Bangladesh -- the Pakistanis seeking to create assets there, and Indian intelligence trying to neutralize these assets. If Pakistan succeeds in penetrating India with jihadi cells, then a massive coordinated jihadi attack is to be expected. Massive visible damage in India will allow the Pakistani Army to sell its story of "victory" no matter how devastating the Indian retaliation is.

Pakistan may be expected to try what Ukraine did in Russia - smuggle in drones and position them close to Indian military assets for a surprise attack, with the drones too close for effective defensive measures.

They have decided to go the Jihadi route long time ago, so nothing new in that approach. Question is what new capabilities do they bring to the table that our strategic planners have not thought through. Things like Ukraine style drone attack is out of question since that operation had the backing of Khan's exotic surveillance tools. Americans like the Pakis to stay put, but they have no motivation to provide such tools to the Pakis. Same goes with the Chinese.

[VinodTK]

Please do not watch if you are not open to listen to contrary views



Colonel Rajesh Pawar (retd) is a former officer of the Indian Army and is now a seasoned war correspondent and defense journalist for India Today. He is best known for his fearless ground reporting from some of the most volatile conflict zones in recent history.

His expertise lies in global geopolitics, modern warfare tactics, and defense strategy. Most notably, he provided extensive on-ground coverage of the Russia-Ukraine war, reporting live from Kyiv even as the city was under siege.

More recently, he has covered the Israel-Hamas war, reporting from locations like Tel Aviv and the Dead Sea to analyze the conflict's military and human impact. His work often focuses on the intersection of military action and its geopolitical ripple effects, making him a critical voice for understanding how global conflicts impact India's strategic interests.

0:00 Trailer
1:18 Introduction
2:55 Why Col Rajesh resigned from Army
3:42 NATO broke its promise to Russia
6:51 CIA’s regime change in Ukraine
8:25 Ukraine’s new regime’s atrocities on citizens
11:04 How Russian invasion changed Ukrainians
14:05 Russia’s new strategy in Ukraine
16:56 Why Russia-Ukraine war will not end soon
20:04 USA’s new strategy - dump Europe for Russia
26:28 Why India is not part of Trump’s China plan
31:26 Will Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine?
33:20 Cracks in NATO
36:56 India badly lost Narrative war in Op Sindoor
40:28 PM Modi should stop politicising everything
43:07 Women shouldn’t be allowed in combat roles
45:51 Future of warfare
47:34 How Army is preparing after Op Sindoor
49:20 Should India buy Rafale?
54:10 Indian soldiers still don’t have good equipment
1:02:02 India needs to invest in asymmetric weapons
1:03:32 ‘Make in India’ scam in Armed forces
1:07:31 Lesson from Ukraine’s drone innovation
1:09:42 Should armed forces hire coders and gamers
1:13:56 India now faces 3.5 front war
1:18:15 Bangladesh & Modi’s Nehru syndrome
1:21:54 Lesson for India from Israel’s Mossad
1:23:17 Why India can’t kill Asim Munir
1:26:00 Problem with India’s foreign policy

[A_Gupta]

They have decided to go the Jihadi route long time ago, so nothing new in that approach. Question is what new capabilities do they bring to the table that our strategic planners have not thought through. Things like Ukraine style drone attack is out of question since that operation had the backing of Khan's exotic surveillance tools. Americans like the Pakis to stay put, but they have no motivation to provide such tools to the Pakis. Same goes with the Chinese.

Sending jihadis across the border is a familiar jihadi route.
Sending jihadis by sea caught India by surprise on 26/11 - it too was a jihadi route.
The recent Delhi blast network - that was caught by happenstance, starting with an investigation into pamphlets in Kashmir. That too was yet another jihadi route.
So I don't think "our strategic planners" have anticipated everything, even though Pakistan has decided to go the Jihadi route.

Re: Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb, there is no evidence of American involvement; in fact the risk of an American leak to the Russians was too high. India's population density and the difficulty of doing something unnoticed does make a similar operation much more difficult in India compared to Russia, IMO.

[S_Madhukar]

Recently boats of illegal BDs crossing into East coast have already been seen and captured in some cases… EU style migration may be attempted, Khangressis get ideas from there only. Plus the LeT cadre training in water all point to the sea route not sure how aware eastern states are..,

[kancha]

There was an extract from the speech of ADG Strat Communications in some forum that was tweeted by ANI last week. He talked about the sheer deluge of cyber attacks and 'Misinformation, Disinformation and Malinformation' by Pakistan right from the word go. 3 crore cyber attacks on NSE itself were recorded. I think it is time to consider the Pakistani Info and Cyber Warfare setups also as legitimate targets for kinetic operations in the next round.
Have shared some thoughts on that along with some media.

Twitter Link
Blog Link

On Blurring the Line Between Cognitive and Kinetic Warfare


What caught my attention was the very specific statistics that General Sharda put out in his talk.
However, the most interesting part was the fact that the attacks were launched within 30-40 minutes.
THIS is what caught my interest.
Let me explain why.
The sheer numbers of attacks and their ‘bombardment’ through cyberspace within 30-40 minutes means that the Paakis were already prepared even before the first Indian munition was fired on 7th May 2025.
They knew India would attack. And they were prepared for it.
They were prepared not only militarily, but also in terms of info warfare and cyber attacks. I think it would be a fair assumption that such planning would already have been in place since long. And when the time came, it all was let loose in a torrent.
This was the same template that they let loose during Balakot when the then Propagandu-in-Chief was the first one to announce the strikes, thereby taking the initiative in the war of narratives.

First ‘true visuals’ of the strike too were let out on social media by the same Propagandu-in-Chief soon thereafter. In doing so, Bhikharistan took a lead on the narrative front.
How effective that was the long run, I shall discuss later in this article.

My reason for bringing that out all over again was to highlight the fact that Paakis flooded the social media landscape with so many falsehoods and different versions of actual truth that true facts virtually drowned in that deluge.
As Maj Gen Sharda mentioned in his video embedded in the first tweet, we were bombarded with ‘Misinformation, Disinformation and Malinformation’ on the first day of Op Sindoor.
Hereinafter, as per Paaki plan, we were to once again be playing catch-up on narrative front while military facts would get obliterated under this flood of ‘Misinformation, Disinformation and Malinformation.’
Unfortunately, Paakis were once again caught fighting the previous war!
This time, there was no questions of missing visuals of Indian attacks and utter and complete impotence of the Brown Panted Ones to either prevent them or retaliate against them.
This time the Awaam themselves provided proof.
.
.
Btw, don’t miss what is said in the video above.
A minister in Pakistan Govt announces publicly in their very SENATE that they have attacked Indian Dams via a cyber attack.
What bigger a smoking gun can we ask for?
IMO, in this instance of Op Sindoor, the battle was convincingly won by India both in the Kinetic as well as the Cognitive Domain.
However, fact remains that even though Kinetic engagements may have petered down, attacks in the Cognitive domain still continue. The good General himself says so.
This is where I come to the question that triggered this chain of thoughts :
Is it time to consider Kinetic actions against warriors of the Cognitive domain as well, whenever the inevitable next round comes?
Mull over it for a moment before moving ahead.
Personally, I most definitely believe that time has come to physically eliminate the IW infrastructure, including its manpower, whenever the next opportunity presents itself.
A keyboard warrior in today’s world is just as lethal as one with a rifle in his hand.
Period.
.
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It is a given that info warfare is a highly delegated operation with multiple nerve-centres feeding millions of individual social media users. However, fact remains that nerve centres play a highly important role in setting narratives and giving course-corrections wherever needed. While Info Warfare goes on unabated across national boundaries and without any distinction between uniformed and non-uniformed ‘warriors’, official information channels still play a key role in providing critical raw material for manipulation on social media.
These nerve-centres are what are identifiable on ground & should ideally form part of the target list whenever the next Indian missiles & bombs fly Westwards. By choking the flow of info from official channels thru physical elimination, Info Ops on the other side will definitely be hobbled.
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The beast needs to be dealt with, not just in the same coin, but with brute physical force.
Once again, as General Sharda mentioned in the video above : ‘War is about making the adversary submit to your Will.’
To that I shall add that any & every means towards achieving that end is justifiable. Even if it means physically destroying the network supplying narratives & inputs to Info Warriors, as well as Info Warriors themselves.
THIS is the sum total of what I want to say via this blog post.
As far as the ‘FANTASTIC’ Bhikharistani win of Feb 2019 goes, it did them a fat load of good barely 6 months later when India abrogated Article 370 and all that they could do was make a song and dance about it!

[A_Gupta]

To put it as concisely as I can - given India's increasing edge in military power over Pakistan, Pakistan's future attacks on India:

1. Will use novel attack vectors or existing ones used in novel ways.

2. Will require early images of damage and chaos caused by the attacks. The military significance of the attacks is not relevant - it must generate lots of images, video and headlines. It must occur across the geography.

3. Will assume that Pakistan will absorb and suffer through whatever India does in retaliation, with the key assumption that India will not do any decapitating strikes. By decapitation here I mean anything that hurts the corp commanders and above, or anyone of significance in their federal government.

4. It will probably also proceed under the assumption that India. will not change the international border or the Line of Control. This might be the assumption that proves to be false.

[S_Madhukar]

Expect them to launch ballistic missiles on day 1 itself.. there won’t be any strategy to outlast the conflict. Like Saddam and his Scuds in ‘91. Create ruckus and hope desi sellout media will do ronadhona at global scale. Plus .5 to do spectacular sabotage on infra and property. Chief mullah will have his Gulfstream ready and loaded to flee. They can at best be a mix of Iran and Iraq

[drnayar]

They have decided to go the Jihadi route long time ago, so nothing new in that approach. Question is what new capabilities do they bring to the table that our strategic planners have not thought through. Things like Ukraine style drone attack is out of question since that operation had the backing of Khan's exotic surveillance tools. Americans like the Pakis to stay put, but they have no motivation to provide such tools to the Pakis. Same goes with the Chinese.

Other than the Turkey, both America and China would be loath to provide high end weapons to porkiland due to fears of tech leak to the other country.

[A_Gupta]

The motive for Pak to attack is, along with all the jihadi rewards, that the Indian response tends to unite Pakistan’s fractured society. One day, it will fail to do even that, and that is finis for Pakistan as we have come to know it.

[Aditya_V]

It depends, on 27 Feb 19 capture Group Captain Abhinandan was a victory, Operation Sindoor has been a dividing force since the heartland saw the defeat. The destruction in Balakote on 26 Feb 19 was hidden from the public. So it costs both ways.

In a way it helped us, since most Pakis were out at Night trying to be the first to capture an IAF pilot, started taking Videos of PAF incapability

[Rakesh]

WHAT IS THE COLD START DOCTRINE AND WHY PAKISTAN IS “SHIT SCARED” OF IT
https://issf.org.in/2026/02/what-is-the ... red-of-it/
February 2026

[A_Gupta]

I am very charmed by this dry and sarcastic narration of a future conflict where the lumber one air force is demolished.

Gems like “strategic depth of a parking lot”, “ The speed of the R37M makes the JF17 look stationary, bypassing the lighter fighters like the first wife of a PAF general who just brought his fresh 20-year-old fourth wife home.”, “ . A Pakistani tanker pilot discovers he has become a static target for a missile system. The S400 remains indifferent to his bravery or his cinematic slow motion social media uploads.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdg1ux4Tgvc

[A_Gupta]

LeT threat to Delhi?

Posted also in Internal Security thread.

The Hindustan Times reports, using unnamed sources:

Delhi on high alert over LeT's terror plan to 'avenge' Pak mosque blast, temple near Red Fort on hitlist

Sources reportedly indicated that the outfit is allegedly seeking to avenge a February 6 blast at a mosque in Islamabad, Pakistan.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 54914.html

A terror alert has reportedly been sounded for Delhi over threat of attack plans by Pakistan-based terrorist outfit Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) targeting religious places, particularly a temple near Red Fort, to “avenge” a recent blast in Islamabad.

At least two senior Delhi Police officers, who asked not to be identified, told HT that the first set of inputs regarding terror attacks by LeT in Delhi, especially at religious places, were received before the Republic Day celebrations. Accordingly, high alert was sounded across the city and security arrangements in and around religious establishments were increased. The first meeting of special cell officers happened around the time the terror attack alerts were received, planning the security apparatus and other anti-terror measures to tackle possible attacks.

The officers said that similar terror attack threat inputs were received after the February 6 suicide bombing attack in a Shia mosque in Pakistan’s Islamabad that claimed at least 31 people and left dozens injured.

Meanwhile, specific intelligence inputs, reported by ANI and PTI news agencies on Saturday, suggested that the group may be plotting an improvised explosive device (IED) attack and that a temple in the Chandni Chowk area could be a potential target.

[drnayar]

I am very charmed by this dry and sarcastic narration of a future conflict where the lumber one air force is demolished.

Gems like “strategic depth of a parking lot”, “ The speed of the R37M makes the JF17 look stationary, bypassing the lighter fighters like the first wife of a PAF general who just brought his fresh 20-year-old fourth wife home.”, “ . A Pakistani tanker pilot discovers he has become a static target for a missile system. The S400 remains indifferent to his bravery or his cinematic slow motion social media uploads.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sdg1ux4Tgvc

i like mapreaders dry sarcastic humour

[ramana]

As per request of Ramana-ji, this thread has been created to do a holistic study of Operation Sindoor using the recently released citations and information released on the targets that the Indian Armed Forces successfully engaged.

I want to expand the scope of this thread to be more broad based
I would like you to write down the key lessons of the wars of this decade starting with Ukraine, Gaza, Sindoor, the US-Israel wars on Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria. Add US-Israel twin wars on Iran.
Please put a hashtag
#Ukraine, #Sindoor, #HAMAS etc to collect the thoughts.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

#EpicFury #Sindoor

The Iranian low cost Shaheed drone (USD 20K) seem to be overwhelming the defenses of the GCC countries. It is not about the success rates, but the cost imposed on the enemy. Apparently the UAE for example is spending about USD 1 bn/ daily in trying to stop them. In fact for every $1 Iran spends on attacking UAE, they are spending $15 odd defending.

The cost of the drones is based on estimates of $20,000-50,000 per unit, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

In contrast, UAE defense costs are significantly higher. Each PAC-3 MSE interceptor used against ballistic missiles costs $3-5 million, according to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance.

For ballistic missiles alone, 152 intercepts multiplied by two shots each totals $966 million-$1.61 billion. Drone defense adds further costs: interceptors averaging $500,000-1.5 million per drone killed 506 drones, costing roughly $322.5-967.5 million.

The total UAE expenditure on air defense has been so far estimated at $1.31-2.61 billion, around three to 13 times the amount Iran spent on the attacks. For drones specifically, every $1 Iran spent prompted an estimated $15-35 in UAE defense spending, underscoring the extreme imbalance.

Times like this that I appreciate the big leap that Indian Air Defence displayed during Sindoor by incorporation L-70'S, Shikas and Tungushkas into Akashteer. It's an upgrade we are not fully appreciative of till now.

Also, one more lesson that needs to be taken away and hardwired into the minds of India planners is the need for low cost blunt weapons like Shahed drones. Even when you are getting pounded so badly by the US and Israel, proliferation of low cost weaponry can deny enemy victory. We need anti-fragile systems.

And ironically, it is a lesson Pak has already taught us with their asymmetric warfare already- using cheap terrorists to cause trouble in India. The cost of deployment of CAPF, RR is economically unwise. Just because our economy is doing well now doesn;t mean that this solution is feasible in the long-term. Tomorrow, a poorer Pakistan, can be bought out with fewer dollars, to send more terrorists. And similarly impoverished trouble makers from Myanmar. We will be looking at financially ruinous wars. We really need to learn to fight different wars differently and not opt for uber- duper gold plated solutions to everything. Match horses to courses. Else we end up making the same mistakes that the US made. How MUTU will that be?

[Mukesh.Kumar]

The other learning Area for India should be how Iranians have kept a coherent strategy despite losing a large number of senior political and military officials.

A large community line India needs centralization, yes. But I have a feeling we're too person driven and over centralized. This is ab areas thatneeds introspection

[Avinandan]

#EpicFury #Sindoor

The Iranian low cost Shaheed drone (USD 20K) seem to be overwhelming the defenses of the GCC countries.

Times like this that I appreciate the big leap that Indian Air Defence displayed during Sindoor by incorporation L-70'S, Shikas and Tungushkas into Akashteer. It's an upgrade we are not fully appreciative of till now.

Just because our economy is doing well now doesn;t mean that this solution is feasible in the long-term. Tomorrow, a poorer Pakistan, can be bought out with fewer dollars, to send more terrorists. And similarly impoverished trouble makers from Myanmar. We will be looking at financially ruinous wars. We really need to learn to fight different wars differently and not opt for uber- duper gold plated solutions to everything. Match horses to courses. Else we end up making the same mistakes that the US made. How MUTU will that be?

100 percent agree.
And now I dhoti shivering at the thoughts of future conflicts. Pakistan had only launched few hundred drones. Just imagine them sending 1000 to 1500 drones ( price of roughly 1 high end jet like J10).

1. Would India be able to defend itself ?
2. If yes, would be better able to sustain such attacks repeatedly say for continuous 7 to 10 days ?

IMHO, India should double down and procure greater than 500 L&T Sudarshan CIWS ( L70 replacement ) instead of just 240 (Is there a better way to know the exact number to procure).

God knows why they are not expediting this procurement.


Courtesy: iadb.in