West Asia News and Discussions

[Cyrano]

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/2031035745193070819
@ShivAroor
THAAD radar, Jordan
THAAD radar, Al Ruwais, UAE
THAAD radar, Al Sader, UAE
THAAD radar, Pr Sultan Base, Saudi
Ballistic Missile EW Radar, Qatar

Iran’s strikes on giant U.S. missile defence radars in the region are sounding a massive alarm:

All that for a drop of blood as Thanos pointed out.

Even if these reports are accurate. The Iranian ability to lob missiles has been degraded to a point that the attached have reduced by 90%. Uae and Saudi report 95% success rate in interceptions. Some will get thru but so far it's been ridiculously lop sided despite the reporters excitement.

How are they intercepting with all those big radars gone?!

[uddu]

How are they intercepting with all those big radars gone?!

Probably the AN/TPY-2 radar and also the Aegis on ships. The big ones are mostly needed for long range detection like from Russia or China.
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ ... ams-glance

[uddu]

Defence pact and instead of coming in support of Saudi Arabia, they are congratulating Iranian leadership.
https://x.com/i/status/2031387584790700220
@majorgauravarya
Shehbaz Sharif, the PM of Pakistan, just congratulated the man who is bombing Saudi Arabia, the country with whom Pakistan has a defence pact that basically says that an attack on Saudi Arabia is an attack on Pakistan. Well done

[Amber G.]

US, Israel actions are "violation of the fundamental principles and rules of the United Nations Charter and international law", Iran FM tells EAM Jaishankar (From Iran Readout)

[Kati]

https://youtube.com/shorts/NLefTeViIB4? ... 29yXR4VbJF

[Lisa]

US, Israel actions are "violation of the fundamental principles and rules of the United Nations Charter and international law", Iran FM tells EAM Jaishankar (From Iran Readout)

People who live in glass houses.......

[Cyrano]

How are they intercepting with all those big radars gone?!

Probably the AN/TPY-2 radar and also the Aegis on ships. The big ones are mostly needed for long range detection like from Russia or China.
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ ... ams-glance

Same as the ones that got Sindoored?

[uddu]

Probably the AN/TPY-2 radar and also the Aegis on ships. The big ones are mostly needed for long range detection like from Russia or China.
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/ ... ams-glance

Same as the ones that got Sindoored?

Larger one is the AN/FPS-132. The AN/TPY-2 are mobile truck mounted.
https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/iran ... ddle-east/
Both got attacked

Iranian Attacks On Prized Missile Defense Radars Are A Wake-Up Call
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/ira ... 52758.html
Based on the information at hand, it appears that Iran has been able to destroy one U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar in Jordan and damage the massive American-made AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar

[uddu]

There seems no gas pipeline all the way to Oman's Duqm port. IF they had it, the loading can be done there and the ships need not have to enter Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Oil ... _372240169

[uddu]

'$500,000 Per Day': Why Shipping Tycoon Is Sending Tankers To Strait Of Hormuz Despite Iran's Threat

[uddu]

INS Rana armed with VLSRSAM can be deployed with other warships to escort Indian bound vessels.

[chetak]

vi@WA

*The seafarers will understand*

*"SHOW SOME GUTS"*

Donald Trump just went on Fox News and told oil tanker crews to "show some guts" and sail through the Strait of Hormuz while missiles are literally flying overhead.

Let me just paint this picture for you.

Seven sailors are dead. Multiple tankers have been hit by drones and missiles. Every major maritime insurer on earth has cancelled war risk coverage for the entire Persian Gulf. The strait wasn't shut down by Iran's navy. It was shut down by insurance companies going "yeah, nah, we're not covering that." One withdrawal of a piece of paper and 20% of the world's oil supply stopped moving overnight.

Retired Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, a bloke who actually sailed through this strait under fire in the 1980s, says Iran has over 5,000 mines ready to deploy. He says clearing them could take months. There are 20,000 sailors trapped in the zone right now.

And here's the real kicker. The tankers going through Hormuz are almost entirely crewed by Filipino, Indian, Greek and Pakistani sailors on foreign flagged ships. American crewed tankers make up 0.6% of the global fleet. Zero point six. He's not asking Americans to show guts. He's asking poor blokes from Manila and Mumbai to die so his polling numbers stop cratering.

Oil was $64 a barrel ten days ago. It hit $119 on Sunday. US gas is up 50 cents in a week and heading for $4 a gallon. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is sitting at 58% capacity because Trump never refilled it like he promised. Schumer's begging him to release it. Trump's response? "There's a lot of oil out there. That'll get healed very quickly."

That's the plan. Vibes.

Meanwhile his big solution was announcing that the US Development Finance Corporation, which is a development lending agency, would magically become a maritime war risk insurer overnight. At "a very reasonable price." Details to follow. Presumably never.

Now look. If there's one thing Donald Trump's got, it's plenty of guts. He's ****** full of them. The man is 60% guts by volume. He's carrying more guts than a butcher shop skip bin on a Tuesday afternoon.

But you want to talk about guts? Real guts? Then lead by example, mate. Send your lanky dopey son Barron through the Strait of Hormuz. Send Eric and the other bozo Don Jr. What about Jared Kushner? Maybe Jared could lead the artillery convoy through. He solved Middle East peace last time, didn't he? Let him have a crack at navigating a supertanker through a minefield while Iranian drones are buzzing overhead. Get all those tough guys on a VLCC and point it south.

Five draft deferments. Exposed bone spurs. And now Captain Courageous is on Fox and Friends telling merchant sailors from developing nations to risk their lives because oil hit triple digits and the midterms are eight months away.

This is a man with no plan. The "show some guts" line is the tell. When the President of the United States is reduced to trash talking civilian sailors on morning television because the global insurance market collapsed on his watch, that's not strength. That's panic wearing a red tie.

The cost exchange asymmetry is the whole game. Iran didn't need a navy. A handful of drone strikes and one announcement from the IRGC was enough to collapse the entire marine insurance framework that underpins 20% of global oil. Trump sunk their ships and they shut down global energy with fear, physics and a $20,000 drone.

Show some guts. From the bloke who showed bone spurs.
~Gman

[Cyrano]

There seems no gas pipeline all the way to Oman's Duqm port. IF they had it, the loading can be done there and the ships need not have to enter Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Oil ... _372240169

Exactly what I was thinking. Perhaps in the future such pipelines will be built to derisk from Hormuz.

[VKumar]

A passage like the Panama canal or the Suez canal should be made to bypass the Hormuz straits

[Mukesh.Kumar]

There seems no gas pipeline all the way to Oman's Duqm port. IF they had it, the loading can be done there and the ships need not have to enter Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Oil ... _372240169

Exactly what I was thinking. Perhaps in the future such pipelines will be built to derisk from Hormuz.

20 years ago Duqm was planned exactly for this. KSA pipelines were supposed to connect to it. Somehow the UAE and KSA didn't go as per the plan and today they are paying the price.

Duqm was a strategic call decades ahead of its time. That oil taking terminal can handle up to 12mn bpd if not more. That's would truly be the equivalent of total oil production for KSA -9 mmbpd, UAE- 3 mbpd and Oman- 1 mbpd.

Missed opportunity for KSA and UAE because they wanted to remain aloof of Oman.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

A passage like the Panama canal or the Suez canal should be made to bypass the Hormuz straits

What are you talking of? Have you seen the topography? Are you going to drill through mountains or escape a 1500 km channel across the desert?

A pipeline makes sense, but even that has challenges. Any petroleum engineer can elaborate how difficult it is to pump crude over large distances.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ ... e-conflict
‘The shine has been taken off’: Dubai faces existential threat as foreigners flee conflict
Hannah Ellis-Petersen, 11 Mar 2026
In the playground of the rich, nobody wanted this war. For decades, Dubai built itself up as a sanctuary of unadulterated consumerism visited by tourists the world over.
But now, the city in the United Arab Emirates faces an existential threat, as the war between the US and Israel and Iran has shaken the foundations of the “Dubai dream” that so many foreigners had bought into.
The UAE has borne the brunt of more than two-thirds of Iran’s strikes; the state targeted in part, say analysts, for its deep military and intelligence partnerships with western powers, and Dubai’s reputation as a favoured centre for global finance and western holidays.
“The shine has definitely been taken off,” said John Trudinger, a British resident of Dubai for 16 years, who is a headteacher at an Emirati school in Dubai. He employs more than 100 teachers from the UK and said most have been so “deeply traumatised and really struggling to cope” with the sudden arrival of war in Dubai that they have left and won’t come back.
They are among the tens of thousands of residents and tourists that have fled Dubai since the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran almost two weeks ago. The city’s large population of migrant workers largely don’t have that option.
On a daily basis, alerts ping on everyone’s phones, warning of “potential missile threats” and telling them to seek safety and stay away from windows. More than 90% of the 1,700 Iranian projectiles have been rebuffed by UAE’s defence systems, but some have struck significant targets, including military bases, industrial complexes and Dubai airport, shutting down one of the busiest aviation hubs in the world. Attacks on two datacentres briefly left Dubai residents unable to use their phones for digital payments.
......
Gautam
Also:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ ... e-iran-war
Thousands of pets being abandoned in Dubai as owners flee over Iran war

[pravula]

A passage like the Panama canal or the Suez canal should be made to bypass the Hormuz straits

What are you talking of? Have you seen the topography? Are you going to drill through mountains or escape a 1500 km channel across the desert?

A pipeline makes sense, but even that has challenges. Any petroleum engineer can elaborate how difficult it is to pump crude over large distances.

And don’t forget the Houthis, Iranian proxy who have been practicing and have real experience hitting ships.

[Amber G.]

U.S. at Fault in Strike on School in Iran, Preliminary Inquiry Says

[Amber G.]

xpost - I may discuss it more later - But IMO very important
This is a story with stunning strategic implications. It seems US launched a massive war because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff lacked the technical expertise to even understand , basic physics .. what the Iranians were offering in negotiations.

Absolute idiocy.

Nuclear experts undercut White House claims about Iran reactor at heart of case for war

(The article argues that the Trump administration’s public justification for military action against Iran relied heavily on claims about Iran’s Tehran Research Reactor, but that nuclear experts say the claims lack evidence or technical grounding. IMO that is *very* true. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff becoming 'nuclear experts' like RFK are becoming health experts in US. Very dangerous.

[drnayar]

xpost - I may discuss it more later - But IMO very important
This is a story with stunning strategic implications. It seems US launched a massive war because Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff lacked the technical expertise to even understand , basic physics .. what the Iranians were offering in negotiations.

Absolute idiocy.

Nuclear experts undercut White House claims about Iran reactor at heart of case for war

(The article argues that the Trump administration’s public justification for military action against Iran relied heavily on claims about Iran’s Tehran Research Reactor, but that nuclear experts say the claims lack evidence or technical grounding. IMO that is *very* true. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff becoming 'nuclear experts' like RFK are becoming health experts in US. Very dangerous.

Well no one has yet forgotten Iraqs "weapons of mass destruction" .. also this is well known in policy makers of most western countries , bharat, china etc. US does not really need a reason to go to war., they get into one by "culinary means" ., the CIA is very much the vanguard of any war America does

I think Modijis "keeping silent" and working while sharpening the sword arms make ample sense

[RCase]

Medtech Firm Stryker Disrupted by Pro-Iran Hackers

https://www.govinfosecurity.com/medtech ... rs-a-30980

Michigan-based Stryker just after midnight East Coast time on Wednesday experienced an organization-wide systems outage disruption, including some mobile devices being wiped, and some log-in screens replaced with the logo of Handala, as first reported by The Wall Street Journal.

A newly registered account on social platform X, apparently run by Handala, claimed its Stryker disruption affected 79 offices across the world, resulting in "over 200,000 systems, servers and mobile devices" being wiped and 50 terabytes of data stolen. Stryker is among the top global manufacturers of medical devices, earning $22.6 billion in sales in 2024, producing equipment that spans robotic surgery systems to hospital beds.

Healthcare systems are very susceptible to being hacked. The lack of understanding to address vulnerabilities and lackadaisical attitude is staggering. Hackers are exploiting weaknesses in the security architecture to infiltrate malware.

One such area that a lot of them are not paying attention to is medical imaging (X-rays, MRIs etc.). They are a huge vulnerability that can be used to compromise the entire health network systems. Over 45% of the servers that house these images (PACS) can be accessed from the internet! A majority of healthcare networks do not have any scanning of files brought over from third parties (CD ROM, USB or electronically transferred). In fact anti-virus software are unable to detect malware in these files (less than 10% interception rate). This is ticking time bomb waiting to happen.

[Amber G.]

US does not really need a reason to go to war., they get into one by "culinary mean

True..but I think JCPOA was incredibly successful deal - too bad it didn't turn out so (mainly due to Trump's idiocracy)

Basically (less known out side) - during the 2015 Iran nuclear negotiations, MIT-trained Iranian nuclear physicist Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, held critical, direct, and technical, discussions with U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz, a former MIT physics professor. Their mutual academic background enabled them to bypass political stalemates, resolving complex technical obstacles regarding uranium enrichment and centrifuge technology.

Under the Obama administration, the pair was pivotal in breaking through roadblocks in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations, focusing on the scientific realities of Iran's program.
Salehi, viewed as a trusted advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader, provided the necessary technical expertise to structure the, at the time, proposed, Iran nuclear agreement.
The JCPOA agreement was reached in 2015 .
( Salehi earned his Ph.D. in nuclear engineering from MIT in 1977, while Moniz joined the MIT faculty in 1973.. both have/had good reputation )
(Both these guys are still active, but obviously now do not have that much official voice in either government. )

Those who are interested may like to read up on that historic incident.

[uddu]

Cross posting from Modi 3.0
Big Diplomatic Win: Iran Allows Indian Tankers Pushpak, Parimal Through Hormuz
In a major diplomatic development amid the escalating West Asia conflict, the BJP has claimed that Iran has allowed Indian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz despite the ongoing blockade. According to the party, the breakthrough came after talks between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Iran has reportedly permitted Indian tankers Pushpak and Parimal to cross the strategic waterway, which remains a key flashpoint in the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global energy trade and for India’s imports of oil and LPG from Gulf nations. The move could ease immediate pressure on India’s energy supplies as the country faces concerns over LPG shortages and disruptions to shipping routes in the Gulf.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/iran ... 260312.htm
Iran allows Indian ships to pass through Hormuz: Sources
Utkarsh Mishra, March 12, 2026
With the West Asia conflict putting stress on fuel supply routes that use the Strait of Hormuz, sources said Iranian authorities have decided to allow Indian-flagged ships to pass safely through the strait, where maritime traffic has all but halted since the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
Earlier, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Naval Force said vessels seeking to sail through the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz must obtain Iran's approval; otherwise, they could become targets of Iranian attacks.
Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri said two ships that ignored Iran's warnings were targeted in the strait on Wednesday.
'Were the ships assured of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz? This should be asked of the crews of the vessels Express Rome and Mayuree Naree, who today, trusting in empty promises, ignored the warnings and intended to cross the strait but were caught. Any vessel intending to pass must obtain permission from Iran,' the Iranian general said in a post on X.
Iran to allow vessels 'not serving' US, Israel interests
According to Iranian state media, Tehran has intensified restrictions on ship movements through the Strait of Hormuz and said vessels not serving the interests of the United States and Israel can sail safely through the passage.
More than 20 million barrels of crude oil pass daily through the narrow channel separating the Iranian coast from Oman.
This volume represents roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and nearly a quarter of all seaborne oil trade.
A significant share of the world's liquefied natural gas also moves through the same route.
28 Indian vessels operating in Guld region
Meanwhile, India's Shipping Ministry said on Wednesday that 28 Indian-flagged vessels are currently operating in the Persian Gulf region.
Of these, 24 vessels are west of the Strait of Hormuz carrying 677 Indian seafarers, while four vessels are east of the strait with 101 Indian seafarers onboard.
The ministry said their safety and security are being actively monitored.
A 24-hour control room has been operational in the ministry and the Directorate General of Shipping since February 28, 2026, to monitor developments and coordinate assistance.
......
Gautam

[uddu]

It's not Iran allowing as it's not their territory. It's Iran not attacking Indian bound ships as it will bring the wrath of the Indian Navy on them if the Govt decides to do so.

[uddu]

Iran war briefing: Day 12 with Michael Clarke
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are escalating as ships come under attack and the US moves to counter suspected Iranian mine-laying operations, raising fears of further disruption to global shipping and energy flows.

Military analyst Michael Clarke explains.

[uddu]

Ghost Tankers Near Indian Waters Trigger Security Alert | Maritime Threat Update | News18
A new maritime security alert has been issued as unidentified “ghost tankers” have been spotted near India’s territorial waters. Authorities are closely monitoring these vessels, which show unusual movement patterns and are not responding to standard maritime communication protocols. The alert comes amid growing regional tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding seas, where threats to commercial shipping have been on the rise.

Officials say the presence of these ghost tankers could signal attempts to smuggle fuel, evade sanctions, or conduct reconnaissance. The Indian Navy and Coast Guard have heightened surveillance and are prepared to take necessary action to secure maritime borders and protect shipping lanes.

In this video, we break down the incident, explain the risks posed by ghost tankers, and explore what this means for India’s maritime security amid ongoing Gulf tensions.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Apparently the US is considering moving the 82nd Airborne Division. to the Middle East.

[g.sarkar]

https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/ir ... uz-175919/
Iran-Israel War: Russia Reaping Up to $150 Million Daily Windfall From Oil as Iran War Disrupts Global Supply; Revenue Jumps 14% Following Closure of Strait of Hormuz
Prakriti Parul, March 13, 2026
Iran-Israel War Latest: According to reports, Russia pockets an extra €510 million ($550+ million) daily in fossil fuel revenues since US-Israel war against Iran began February 28 representing 14% jump over February averages. Strait of Hormuz effective closure slashed global supply 10 million barrels per day rocketing Brent crude past $100 per barrel. India China aggressively bought Russian crude after US Treasury issued 30-day waiver clearing stranded tankers while Moscow narrowed export discounts significantly.​
How Much Extra Cash Russia Gains Daily Now
Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) calculates €510 million daily fossil fuel windfall enough purchasing 17,000 Shahed drones every 24 hours at $35,000 unit cost. Oil price surge alone adds €45 million ($49 million) daily with cumulative two-week total hitting €6 billion ($6.9 billion). Tax revenues from oil exports jumped $1.3-1.9 billion since conflict ignition per separate estimates. Urals crude climbed toward $62 per barrel surpassing Russia’s $59 budget target dramatically.
Why India China Suddenly Buy More Russian Oil
Hormuz maritime blockade cut Middle East exports forcing major refiners seek alternatives immediately. US Treasury waived sanctions allowing India purchase previously “stuck at sea” Russian cargoes preventing global shortage catastrophe. Kpler data shows Russian crude tanker storage dropped 18-32 million barrels since late February signaling accelerated buyer uptake. China state firms reportedly secured long-term contracts locking discounted barrels through summer months preemptively.​
What Hormuz Closure Means for Global Oil Markets
Iranian IRGC tanker strikes maritime control claims removed 10 million barrels daily supply representing fifth global consumption instantly. Brent crude spiked 27% since war began despite minor Tuesday pullback after Trump de-escalation signals. Russia’s stable export infrastructure positions Moscow filling void other producers face force majeure declarations. Prolonged crisis risks multi-week GDP hits factory shutdowns worldwide as energy costs cascade through supply chains rapidly.​
......
Gautam

[Cain Marko]

All that for a drop of blood as Thanos pointed out.

Even if these reports are accurate. The Iranian ability to lob missiles has been degraded to a point that the attached have reduced by 90%. Uae and Saudi report 95% success rate in interceptions. Some will get thru but so far it's been ridiculously lop sided despite the reporters excitement.

How are they intercepting with all those big radars gone?!

US ISR assets are insane. Combined with Israel + GCC networks, I doubt there's not enough redundancy to handle a few radar losses.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/what-endgame-iran
What Is the Endgame in Iran? Trump Needs to Figure Out What He Wants—and Quickly
Colin H. Kahl, March 10, 2026
he fog of war is thick in Iran, but two things are already crystal clear. No one can question the unrivaled military prowess displayed by the United States and Israel. Since February 28, U.S. and Israeli forces have killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, struck thousands of military targets across Iran, and significantly degraded the country’s missile launchers, drone stockpiles, and naval assets. Nor should anyone doubt the cruelty of the Iranian regime they are targeting, which has spent decades killing Americans, brutalizing its own people, threatening its neighbors with missiles and terrorist proxies, and racing to build up its nuclear program.
But so much else about this war of choice remains unclear, and the biggest questions have gone unanswered by the Trump administration. In particular, how will this war end? And what will be the ultimate strategic implications of the Iran gamble? The history of American military intervention offers a consistent lesson: wars begun without clear political objectives rarely end well. When political goals are undefined or contested, the war lacks a logical stopping point. Tactical successes raise questions of what comes next, while tactical setbacks become justification for doing more. The mission expands, the timeline stretches, and the original rationale fades into the background as the war gains its own momentum. The nineteenth-century Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz famously argued that war is politics by other means. But the corollary is equally important: without a clear political purpose, war becomes an end in itself.
BYSTANDER’S DILEMMA
Washington’s objectives for launching the war in Iran are far from clear. The Trump administration started the war with the stated goal of regime change. “Take over your government,” U.S. President Donald Trump said in a video posted to Truth Social on February 28. “This will be probably your only chance for generations.” Yet in the days since, administration officials have been all over the place. Is the goal to select a more “acceptable” government, as the United States did in Venezuela? Is it “unconditional surrender”? Is it to destroy the nuclear program? Or is it simply to leave whoever survives incapable of projecting military power and declare victory? Clearly defining objectives matters because achieving regime change, behavior change, ending Iran’s nuclear program, and degrading Iran’s ability to project power are not variations on the same goal. They require fundamentally different wars, with different resources, timelines, definitions of victory, and postconflict planning.
This uncertainty has been reinforced in recent days with Trump sending conflicting signals about the war’s duration. On Monday, he sought to calm markets and slow surging oil prices by hinting that the U.S. military was “very far ahead of schedule” and the war could end soon. But hours later, he backtracked. “We have won in many ways, but not enough,” he told a gathering of Republican lawmakers, adding, “We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.”
Strategic ambiguity leaves both the Iranian people and the U.S. military in a quandary. Many Iranians celebrated Khamenei’s death and want to see the regime gone. U.S. intelligence officials reportedly see regime change as unlikely. But what happens if courageous Iranians seize the historic opportunity Trump claims to have provided, and the regime responds with extreme violence, as it did in January when it killed thousands of civilian protesters?
Wars begun without clear political objectives rarely end well.
History offers grim warnings. After the 1991 Gulf War, U.S. President George H. W. Bush encouraged Iraqis to rise up—and then watched from the sidelines as Iraqi President Saddam Hussein slaughtered them. In Libya in 2011, the Obama administration did the opposite—intervening to protect civilians challenging the dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi, only to see regime change descend into state failure and civil war. Today, if Iranians rise up and the regime cracks down, Trump would face a similar dilemma: stay out at tremendous cost to American credibility or go all in and risk mission creep, entanglement, and chaos.
Instead of grappling with this dilemma, the Trump administration appears to be making it more acute. As the prospect of near-term regime change fades, both the United States and Israel seem to be flirting with fomenting internal fragmentation as a fallback. Reports indicate that the CIA is arming Iranian Kurdish militia forces in northern Iraq, while Israel bombs frontier posts, police stations, and military positions along the northern Iran-Iraq border to clear a path. In recent days, Trump has suggested he is backing away from this scheme, but Israel has not. Indeed, Israeli leaders seem to view the destabilization of Iran as a preferable backup if regime change proves impossible, potentially pushing Iran into the kind of state fragmentation seen in Libya, Syria, and post-2003 Iraq. In a country of 90 million people at the crossroads of Eurasia, that outcome would be profoundly destabilizing, not just for Iranians but for U.S. interests in the region and beyond.
......
Gautam
This is a "free" article.

[uddu]

By continuing to block the strait of Hormuz, Iranians are handing over billions of dollar to the U.S. The U.S will never want the Hormuz strait issue to end. The more they keep it open, the more the U.S oil stored will flow freely into the world and they can keep drilling and make more money.
Ed Conway breaks down the impact of the latest attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz

[Cyrano]

It's not Iran allowing as it's not their territory. It's Iran not attacking Indian bound ships as it will bring the wrath of the Indian Navy on them if the Govt decides to do so.

I'm afraid this may just be engineered by forces that do not want this conflict to stop.

[chetak]

[drnayar]

It's not Iran allowing as it's not their territory. It's Iran not attacking Indian bound ships as it will bring the wrath of the Indian Navy on them if the Govt decides to do so.

I'm afraid this may just be engineered by forces that do not want this conflict to stop.

If my reading is correct, IN will only escort ships and intervene if necessary at any incoming missiles [ false flag ops courtesy US/Culinary institute is a likely event]

[tandav]

https://www.republicworld.com/world-new ... tly-denies

IRGC claims strike rendering USS Abraham Lincoln inoperable

[Amber G.]

<img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDSYg_3aIAA ... name=large[/img>

Pakistan And USA Now:
Hold the rare distinction of loosing HVAA in any war!

[Amber G.]

I'm afraid this may just be engineered by forces that do not want this conflict to stop.

If my reading is correct, IN will only escort ships and intervene if necessary at any incoming missiles [ false flag ops courtesy US/Culinary institute is a likely event

Iran's Ambassador to Bharat Mohammad Fathali CONFIRMS safe passage deal
- India's govt AIDS us big time, we MUST RECIPROCATE cuz shared BELIEFS & GOALS bind us tight!"

[Amber G.]

Amid West Asia War, India clamps down on fake news, & deep fake videos.