West Asia News and Discussions

[chetak]

<img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HDSYg_3aIAA ... name=large[img>

Pakistan And USA Now:
Hold the rare distinction of loosing HVAA in any war!

Amber ji

The fatalities in this crash have now been revised upward from four to six

no further details

[g.sarkar]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/ ... t-violence
Trump calls Iran leaders ‘deranged scumbags’ as Middle East violence spirals
Tehran residents report relentless bombing with US and Israeli planes launching wave of attacks
Jason Burke in Jerusalem and Deepa Parent, Fri 13 Mar 2026
Donald Trump has said Iran will be hit “very hard” in the coming days, describing leaders of the regime as “deranged scumbags” who it was a “great honor” to kill, as Tehran residents reported relentless bombing and violence continued to spiral across the Middle East.
The US president’s comments, which signaled an intensification of the US-Israeli campaign, came as Israeli and US warplanes launched successive waves of attacks on the Iranian capital and elsewhere on Friday. One strike reportedly hit close to a square near Tehran University where crowds were gathered in support of Iran’s regime. The area is home to many government buildings.
Video published by the semiofficial Tasnim news agency showed a plume of grey smoke rising as demonstrators screamed “Death to Israel!” and “Death to America!”
Across the region, there was more chaos, bloodshed and destruction, with further Israeli strikes in Lebanon, where 800,000 people have been displaced; new missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah and Iran on targets in Israel; and fresh Iranian attacks on civilian infrastructure in Gulf states.
The US said six servicemen were killed in an accident involving a tanker plane used for mid-air refuelling, which crashed in Iraq. Also in Iraq, a French soldier was killed in a drone strike by a pro-Iranian militia group.
In a post on social media, Trump wrote: “Watch what happens to these deranged scumbags today … They’ve been killing innocent people all over the world for 47 years, and now I, as the 47th President of the United States of America, am killing them. What a great honor it is to do so!”
Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, told a press conference in Washington on Friday that Iranian leaders were “desperate and hiding, they’ve gone underground”.
.......
Gautam

[A_Gupta]

The US 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit is being deployed to the Gulf.
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/us/u ... 830117/amp

[bala]

The following is strait of hormuz. Note the hilly terrain shown.



Q: is it possible to cut a canal in the land mass and allow ship traffic via the short stretch of the canal. This would provide safe passage for all oil tankers and others like gas, food and so on.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

The following is strait of hormuz. Note the hilly terrain shown.



Q: is it possible to cut a canal in the land mass and allow ship traffic via the short stretch of the canal. This would provide safe passage for all oil tankers and others like gas, food and so on.

Short answer. No. Plus if you look closely the area is a mix of UAE and Oman. Enclaves.
So long answer. Very difficult physically and politically
A close look at this topography map will show that average height there is above 200 m easily and the mix of igneous and sedimentary rocks are not easy to excavate. Even if you solve the political and geographical challenges even them you will end up with a canal which is vulnerable to middle strikes on success of the gorge which can block it anytime.



Edited later- Better visualization here.

[Amber G.]

Pakistan And USA Now:
Hold the rare distinction of loosing HVAA in any war!

Amber ji

The fatalities in this crash have now been revised upward from four to six

no further details

Meanwhile : Iranian Sabereen News claims this is the “Exclusive footage of the downing of the American KC-135 aircraft west of Iraq, which the Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced as their target.”.
G
(From Ohio National Guard is saying (3 of the airmen who died belong to Ohio National Guard) and Ohio Governor is officially saying that two air crafts (Both KC-135) collided/had accident , one was able to land but the other did not.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: Donald Trump claims the U.S. carried out a major bombing raid on Iran’s Kharg Island, saying U.S. forces “totally obliterated” military targets there... and this and that..

[uddu]

The following is strait of hormuz. Note the hilly terrain shown.



Q: is it possible to cut a canal in the land mass and allow ship traffic via the short stretch of the canal. This would provide safe passage for all oil tankers and others like gas, food and so on.

Short answer. No. Plus if you look closely the area is a mix of UAE and Oman. Enclaves.
So long answer. Very difficult physically and politically
A close look at this topography map will show that average height there is above 200 m easily and the mix of igneous and sedimentary rocks are not easy to excavate. Even if you solve the political and geographical challenges even them you will end up with a canal which is vulnerable to middle strikes on success of the gorge which can block it anytime.



Edited later- Better visualization here.

They could agree to let Oman have a share in the oil and gas business by completing the Pipeline and let the oil and gas be loaded at Duqm port rather than have complete control of the loading at their own ports, which are in the strait of Hormuz. Especially during such situations, the pipeline will come of good use and is very cheaper to lay and maintain rather than a new canal which can get disrupted if one missile hit one tanker or get mined somehow.
Even the IMEC can have a link from Oman to Saudi Arabia along with the UAE one. It seems the UAE did not agree to such a situation because it will make them lose a major part of the business.

[chetak]

An Arab gentleman is sitting in a millionaire’s restaurant in Dubai having lunch when a disheveled homeless man walks in and sits down next to him. The man says, “I have a golden lighter. You're gonna want to buy it, but I should warn you, it costs a million dollars.”

The Arab laughs and says, “Have you lost your mind old man? A million dollars? That lighter isn’t even worth one dollar!”

The homeless man calmly clicks the golden lighter. Suddenly, a genie pops out and says, “Sir, what do you wish for?”

The whole restaurant goes quiet as the man tells the genie, “Bring me a cup of tea with sugar.” The genie claps his hands and—poof!—with a flash of fire, a glass of tea appears on a tray with sugar and a spoon.

The Arab rubs his eyes, stunned by what he just saw. Without hesitation, he grabs the lighter and writes the man a check for one million dollars.

“Not so fast,” says the homeless man. “How do I know this check is good?” So they both go to the Arab’s bank and cash the check. After the money is confirmed, they shake hands and go their separate ways.

The Arab rushes home to his palace, excited. Sitting at his grand table, he clicks the golden lighter. Sure enough, the genie appears again. “Sir, what do you wish for?”

The Arab smiles and says, “First, I want the million dollars I paid for you back. Then I want a new super yacht, my own Lear private jet, the latest Rolls Royce in my garage, and a foolproof iron-dome to protect them from Iranian missiles.”

The genie looks embarrassed and says, “I’m very sorry, sir… I can only serve tea or coffee. Would you like sugar with that?”

This is exactly what the US has done with the Arabs

[bala]

Another roundup of things happening in the area

Iran War Day 14: US Hits Kharg Island, Gives Iran a Final Hormuz Warning • Lt Gen Ravi Shankar

On Day 14 of the escalating conflict, the United States executed a major military operation targeting Kharg Island, the strategic epicenter of Iran's oil export economy. Authorized by President Donald Trump under Operation Epic Fury, US Central Command deployed B-2 stealth bombers to systematically obliterate military installations on the island.

[uddu]

How US Air Tanker Crash?

[uddu]

Trump avoided another headache for India by not naming India in the list of countries that he expect will send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The Anti-India, Repeat Trump Opposition must have had a field day claiming Modi send Warship because Trump asked.

It is expected of Japan, Korea to send their warships to escort their tankers. They will not be able to hold out for long without oil. France also got good Anti-Air capable warships. The others like Germans may not come. Trump is forcing this action by not deploying U.S warships in the Strait. Eventually more countries could end up joining the war along with U.S if the Iranians target any of these warships.

Donald Trump says he hopes UK and China will send warships to Strait of Hormuz
In a post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump claims "many countries" will send warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz.

He wrote "hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK" will be among them.

"In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water."

[Kati]

WSJ reporting:

Five Air Force Refueling Planes Hit in Iranian Strike on Saudi Arabia

By Lara Seligman and Shelby Holliday

Five U.S. Air Force refueling planes were struck and damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia, according to two U.S. officials.
………

[Amber G.]

As someone posted: White house has spoken- வாயில்லைனா நாய் கவ்விட்டு போயிடும்!
One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!" - President DONALD J. TRUMP

Meanwhile:

[Amber G.]

US citizens should leave Iraq now, US embassy in Baghdad issues advisory on a day strikes happened on its compound.

[g.sarkar]

https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/ch ... ce-176383/
Chinese satellite imagery spells end of US space intelligence dominance
Chinese satellite imagery highlights damage to US bases after Iranian missile strikes.
ABHINANDAN MISHRA, March 15, 2026
NEW DELHI: Chinese commercial satellites have been releasing satellite imagery indicating damage to US military assets and installations in the Middle East following Iranian strikes, underscoring a major shift in the balance of global satellite surveillance and challenging the long-standing dominance of American space-based intelligence.
Satellite images circulating in recent days show damage patterns and debris around US military infrastructure in the region, including radar installations linked to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system deployed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Analysts examining the images say the site appears to have sustained strike impacts during Iranian missile attacks earlier in the conflict.
The imagery has largely come from Chinese satellite networks and geospatial intelligence platforms that continue to release photographs of military installations, deployments and strike damage across the region.
At the same time, at least one major American commercial satellite imagery company temporarily restricted the release of certain photographs after satellite pictures revealed the impact of Iranian attacks on US bases. This was presumably done on the orders of the Pentagon.
Apart from the concerns that high-resolution imagery could enable Iranian adversaries to conduct battle damage assessment and refine targeting, the Pentagon, it is understood, wanted to keep a lid on the damages that its assets have suffered in the ongoing war that started on 28 February.
The contrast has drawn attention to the growing influence of China’s commercial earth observation industry, which operates outside the regulatory and political constraints affecting many Western providers.
Chinese firms have in recent days also published satellite imagery mapping US military assets across the Middle East, including aircraft positions at regional air bases, naval deployments and air defence systems. The images identify installations across several countries and have circulated widely among analysts and on social media.
......
Gautam

[Cain Marko]

WSJ reporting:

Five Air Force Refueling Planes Hit in Iranian Strike on Saudi Arabia

By Lara Seligman and Shelby Holliday

Five U.S. Air Force refueling planes were struck and damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia, according to two U.S. officials.
………

This was later refuted?

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-889882

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/just ... 260315.htm
'Just for fun': Trump warns of more strikes on Iran's Kharg Island
Hemant Waje, March 15, 2026
Donald Trump has hinted at potential further military strikes against Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub, raising concerns about escalating tensions in the Persian Gulf and the security of global oil supplies.
United States President Donald Trump stated that the country might conduct further military operations against Iran's Kharg Island oil export hub.
In an interview with NBC News on Saturday, Trump asserted that previous American strikes had "totally demolished" the majority of the island's oil infrastructure. He further remarked that the US "may hit it a few more times just for fun."
Throughout the ongoing hostilities, US forces have launched airstrikes against military installations on the island, striking numerous targets, including missile storage facilities and various defence sites.
While earlier reports suggested that the oil export infrastructure remained largely undamaged, Trump announced on Saturday that the US had indeed struck the island, which he described as a vital hub for Iran's oil trade.
The President claimed that US forces had "obliterated" military installations on Kharg Island. Located in the Persian Gulf, the site serves as the primary gateway for Iran's crude oil shipments to international markets.
Although the terminals themselves were not the primary focus of the recent strikes, Trump cautioned that energy infrastructure remains a potential target if Tehran continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
......
Gautam

[Amber G.]

Nations Respond With Caution to Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Strait of Hormuz

Nations Respond With Caution to Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Strait of Hormuz
President Trump has urged China, Britain, France, Japan and South Korea to send warships to help reopen the waterway, even though they were not involved in the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.

Here is how these nations have responded so far:

Britain: The British government was already looking at “any options” to help restart shipping in the region and was in talks with allies, Ed Miliband, the energy minister, said on Sunday, without disclosing details. “It is very important that we get the Strait of Hormuz reopened,” he told the BBC in an interview, but he reiterated Britain’s position that the “best and simplest way” for that to happen was to de-escalate the fighting.

Japan: Japan’s pacifist constitution limits military engagement in wars and a senior Japanese official warned that any decision to deploy warships would face “high hurdles.” Takayuki Kobayashi, policy chief of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, told the Japanese public broadcaster NHK on Sunday that the country would have to be cautious. The issue may come up when Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Mr. Trump meet in Washington on Thursday.

South Korea: The office of President Lee Jae Myung of South Korea said in a statement that it would “communicate closely with the United States,” but did not make any commitments.

China: China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, has not publicly responded to Mr. Trump’s remarks but has previously called for the cessation of hostilities.

France: France has also not responded publicly. President Emmanuel Macron has said that his government would be willing to use its navy to escort ships but only if the conflict stabilized. Last week, Mr. Macron wrote on social media that he had spoken with President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran and told him that Tehran needed to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and reopen it to shipping.

[Cyrano]

[chanakyaa]

Nations Respond With Caution to Trump’s Call to Send Warships to Strait of Hormuz

There are repeated calls being made for countries including Asian countries to assist reopening of the strait. Visit of Sanae Takaichi this week will be key. It is possible that sends it ships with or without choice. Why ? It is viewed as an ally and its ships are not allowed to pass? Which means that the only way to be effective is if the countries are ready for conflict.

[chetak]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/uaes-bi ... r-11220357

UAE's Big Action Against 19 Indians Over 'Misleading' Posts Amid Iran War

UAE's Big Action Against 19 Indians Over 'Misleading' Posts Amid Iran WarIn the UAE, such acts constitute crimes punishable under the law by imprisonment for at least 1 year and a fine of at least AED 1,00,000.

[uddu]

Fauxy having fun
https://x.com/Being_Humor/status/2033218070828007650
@Being_Humor
Fauxy gave this news much before
https://x.com/the_fauxy/status/2033093427194376527



@netanyahu
https://x.com/i/status/2033190035764232360
אומרים שאני מה? צפו >>
Translated from Hebrew by
They say I am what? Watch >>

[g.sarkar]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... mp-failure
Here’s the news from Iran – Donald Trump is making America lose wars again
Simon Tisdall, 15 Mar 2026
Donald Trump menaces the world. He’s global public enemy number one. He’s steadily losing the illegal war with Iran he started but cannot stop. His violence-addicted Israeli sidekick, Benjamin Netanyahu, is terrorising Lebanon. And ordinary people everywhere, their security threatened, face a huge economic bill for his reckless folly.
Add Trump’s war-making to his daily debasing of democracy, appeasing of Russia, punitive tariffs, climate crisis denial and flouting of international law, and it’s clear this White House travesty has gone on long enough. Americans must put their house in order and act decisively to restrain someone who endangers us all.
Trump is a man without a plan. He hasn’t the foggiest what to do next in Iran, deluding himself that he is in control of events. The more the US and Israel batter Tehran and other cities, the more defiant is the odious, unvanquished Islamic regime. US regional bases and Gulf Arab partners are sustaining significant damage from retaliatory strikes.
Iran has succeeded in closing (and is now reportedly mining) the strait of Hormuz, which Trump, astonishingly, failed to defend. Rising oil and gas prices are driving a global energy shock that harms international trade, fuels inflation and creates food and medicine shortages. Poorer countries will suffer most. But few will escape the Trump plague. He’s the new Covid.
Netanyahu’s worst instincts have free rein as Trump flounders. Unceasing, disproportionate Israeli air attacks are hitting Iranian homes, utilities, banks, cultural heritage sites and mosques. The attacks are said to be counterproductively rallying nationalist support for the regime.
In Lebanon, it’s the same criminal story: civilians killed, hundreds of thousands of people displaced, destruction, occupation – all supposedly necessary to smash Hezbollah terror. But this is something worse: it’s state terror. Compare it with unchecked Israeli settler depredations in the West Bank. The “greater Israel” project advances on all fronts, olive grove by uprooted olive grove, village by depopulated village.
Taking fright as markets tumbled, Trump half-tried to declare victory last week, but even he couldn’t sustain so big a lie. At least George W Bush had the courage of his (foolish) convictions in Iraq in 2003. Bush knew only a land invasion would achieve his aims. Trump lacks the balls for that. In Iran, he sought swift, painless victory from the air.
What he – and the world – have got instead is, potentially, another forever war. The regime will keep fighting, increasingly by asymmetric means; there can be no popular uprising while this continues. Israel wants to make Iran and Lebanon like Gaza: permanent aerial free-fire zones. And thanks to Trump, the US is pig in the middle.
Trump and his Bible-thumping Pentagon mouthpiece, Pete Hegseth, would prefer to declare “mission accomplished” sooner rather than later. It’s undeniable Iran’s military capabilities have been severely degraded, however this will not end well for Washington.
Humiliating failure looms, prospectively as symbolically damaging to US global standing and national self-esteem as Afghanistan or Iraq. Body bags are coming home. And the war’s financial cost is running at more than $11bn a week. Midterm election voters, watching prices rise, will not easily forgive its careless architect. Donald J Trump: making America lose again.
......
Gautam

[A_Gupta]

Question to Trump: Thank you. Uh you were talking about Iran a couple times today and what they did after Epic Fury began. You said they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked. Are you surprised that nobody briefed you ahead of time that that might be their retaliation?

Trump: Nobody. Nobody. No, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/16/nx-s1-57 ... z-iran-war
Trump demands NATO and China police the Strait of Hormuz. So far they aren't joining
NPR Staff, March 16, 20266
......
President Trump on Monday continued to press other countries to join U.S. efforts to secure a critical shipping route off the coast of Iran.
Iran's ability to threaten slow-moving oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has become a headache for the Trump administration as it creates a stranglehold on a passageway through which roughly 20% of the world's oil trade typically passes.
On Saturday, President Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and others to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump warned that "it will be very bad for the future of NATO" if countries fail to police the strait.
"I'm demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory, because it is their own territory," Trump said aboard Air Force One on Sunday.
"Whether we get support or not, I can say this, and I said it to them: We will remember," he said.
But foreign nations have reacted cautiously, with several outright rejecting Trump's request.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer rebuffed Trump's demands, telling reporters on Monday he is working with allies on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it won't be a NATO mission.
"While taking the necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies, we will not be drawn into the wider war," he said.
Most Britons oppose the war. The British government says it has given the U.S. access to its military bases only for what it calls "limited defensive action."
Germany also sees no role for NATO in policing the strait.
"As long as this war continues, there will be no involvement, not even in an option to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military means," Stefan Kornelius, a spokesperson for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, said in Berlin on Monday.
"I would also like to remind you that the U.S. and Israel did not consult us before the war, and that Washington explicitly stated at the start of the war that European assistance was neither necessary nor desired," he added, according to Politico.
"It's not our war, we didn't start it. We want diplomatic solutions and a swift end," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.
Spain and Italy also said they would not send ships to the strait.
"Italy is not at war with anyone and sending military ships in a war zone would mean entering the war," said Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini.
China called for an end to hostilities but would not say it would help secure the strait.
......
Gautam

[ashthor]

After their bases getting hit will the US dial down a bit in west asia or dial up?

[Aditya_V]

Dial up, and Brr Israeli Air force Bases and 1 Commercial Airport are still operational, so much of PLARF- IRAN BM accuracy and strength.

This build up is very tiny compared to 1991 GW, It will take 2 months of air strikes, Western Media will build IRGC for the "Mother of All Battles".

Iran has hit US Naval Bases in Bahrain, Buildings but 0 American Ships- I dont there were any USN Ships in the Persian Gulf when this battle has started, While Iranian Surface fleet has been sunk , no news about at least 2 Kilo Submarines, they probably pretty deep running silently slowly at 1 or 2 Knots waiting for Targets to Show up, US will wait 20 days before Battery power/ Food run a bit lower and then need to come up and snorkel before taking these on.

US has been very risk averse so far in this war.

Slowly, they will be grid by grid taking out the BM launchers. We probably don't enough news, this war will end like it started with a sharp announcement. At some point the Oil, Electricity and food supplies in Iran will become a problem, in spite of public posturing US Israel will have access to Nato production and supplies of Air delivered ordinance.

It will go on longer than people think, earliest I see this ending is 15 April 26

[uddu]

https://x.com/the_fauxy/status/2033499124876955791
@the_fauxy
#𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚: 𝗡𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘆𝗮𝗵𝘂 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗩𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗼 𝘁𝗼 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗛𝗲 𝗜𝘀 𝗔𝗹𝗶𝘃𝗲

[Amber G.]

Trump’s chief of the National Counterterrorism Centre Joe Kent quits, saying he cannot support the U.S. war on Iran “in all conscience” and says there was “no imminent threat from Iran”.

[Amber G.]

No country wants to join Trump led initiatives on Hormuz safe passage.
Trump goes to social media for an outburst:

[bala]

One of the things that DJT has brought about is the transparency of US policy. All El Presidente of US are briefed by the same entities - CIA/FBI/Pentagon etc. The discussions are quite candid and of course they produce colorful language. Most general communication is a sanitized version of what takes place in private. The degree of shaping public versions varies but behind the scene the same nonsense is talked about, which is in the interest of the nation. All this stage managing is for public consumption. Currently the world is getting the unvarnished truth, which clearly states where the US is on most things in the world.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Increasingly, I am coming to view this war as America's Suez moment. Britain and France could have carried the Suez campaign militarily through, but it was their ally America, which withdrew support, and that signaled world opinion turning decisively against them. And so it feels about the US now.

No one will go against the US and Israel, but in capitals across the world US envoys seeking support for keeping Hormuz Strait open will find colder responses.

Two articles that caught my eye on this:

1. In Fortune-Ray Dalio warns a brutal ‘final battle’ for the Strait of Hormuz is coming—and losing could end the American empire. I will pay attention becuse it came out in Fortune and the guy headed one of the largest hedge funds. This is Capital sounding the bugle
2. How America’s War on Iran Backfired-Tehran Will Now Set the Terms for Peace-Published in Foreign Affairs and authored by an old State Department hand. It's kind of like parts of the establishment sending out indirect signals that US has overplayed its hand. And he was on Trump's Iran negotiation team for Iran last year. He highlights a fact that I had sensed talking to my Iranian friends earlier-

   In 2023, while serving as Iran director at the National Security Council, I attended a diplomatic meeting with an Iranian official in the aftermath of a major protest. Surprisingly, the official acknowledged strong opposition to the Islamic Republic. Yet he cautioned that the United States failed to understand that an equal number of Iranians were prepared to die for the regime and pointed out that most Iranians just wanted a better day-to-day life. Although he didn’t break it down into numbers, I began thinking of this as the 20-20-60 ratio. Twenty percent of Iranians are dedicated to the downfall of the Islamic Republic, 20 to its preservation, and the remainder to a better life.
   
   I long assumed that after Khamenei died, the Iranians who wanted a better life would join forces with those strongly opposed to the Islamic Republic and force the country’s leaders down a different path than the one the supreme leader had charted. But the bitter irony is that the U.S. and Israeli approach to the recent war afforded Khamenei a martyr’s death—a gift to the regime, as it diverted attention away from the Islamic Republic’s failures.

What will happen of the war are not the main questions anymore. We need to think what this means for India in terms of:

1. Energy security
2. Technological security
3. Relationship with GCC and Israel
4. Multilateral fora like the UN
5. Decoupling from an ebbing US Economy and the USD
6. Conversely, how to manage Co-Opetition with China for Russian fuel, economy, influence
7. Impact on repatriations from GCC

[bala]

India's Quiet Game in Iran Israel & Strait of Hormuz, Arab Nations React I Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan

Rajiv says 3 nations are profitting - Russia, India and US from this skirmish/war.



// one thing we need to keep in mind: Iran theocracy is a detriment to the world. The nuke angle is even worse. Getting this defanged is a good goal. The redrawing of boundaries in the ME is highly possible. Oil and gas supply from this area affects everyone in the world.

[Cain Marko]

Many fear this could bog down America indefinitely, particularly if fighting stretches out.Yet consider this alternate angle where it becomes a strategic play for Washington.
Ground troops seem unnecessary—the goal was neutralizing Iran's capacity for major threats like WMD strikes, and that's mostly done.
Near-term, Iran might disrupt the Strait of Hormuz to inflict regional headaches.Prolonged conflict erodes that leverage, thanks to superior U.S.-Israeli-GCC surveillance and strike capability.
Low-cost drones like Shaheds falter against defenses such as APKWS rockets, as India proved last year repelling Pakistani swarms with adapted old Soviet gear like Schilkas and ZSUs.
Persistent Hormuz trouble would quickly draw in more players—European, Japanese, South Korean fleets—whose oil-dependent economies can't tolerate the chaos for long.Facing leadership flux, financial strain, public discontent, and crippled arms production, the regime looks primed to buckle imho.
Reports hint the Larijani brothers are souring on the new Ayatollah's selection.Worst case might yield a Larijani-style milder theocracy akin to Saudi Arabia or the Emirates—maybe the ideal? if they drop ambitions for a militarized powerhouse, integration becomes viable—with power centralization, prosperity, and global relevance up for grabs.Expect a symbolic religious overlay atop hardcore capitalism.
Zero U.S. infantry needed, Tehran cornered, Beijing's regional sway diminished—what's not to like?
The one wrench... China exploiting the distraction for a Taiwan grab, turning this into a real headache.

Jmtp.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/special/ira ... 260317.htm
Iran Rewrites Rules of War
PREM PANICKER, March 17, 2026
US Relies on Precision Airpower
Seventeen days in, it is becoming clear that the United States and Iran are not fighting the same war.
Washington is fighting the war it knows how to fight: Precision airpower, target sets, degradation of military infrastructure.
By its own metrics, it is winning that war comprehensively.
Seventy percent of Iran's missile launchers destroyed; Iran's supreme leader killed; airspace effectively owned; US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth crowing about 'death and destruction from the sky all day long'.
Iran Shifts to Economic Warfare
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous.
Not a war of armies and airfields, but a war of markets and chokepoints.
Robert Pape, the University of Chicago political scientist who has spent decades studying coercive strategy, laid out the logic with clarity in this post (external link).
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Strategy
Economic warfare, Pape argues, unfolds in three stages: disruption, economic shock, political pressure.
Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest.
Oil Prices Surge Amid Conflict
The numbers tell that story. Daily oil exports from the Middle East have fallen by at least 60 percent.
Oil is hovering over $90 a barrel -- a 40 percent rise since the war began.
Iran hasn't closed the Strait of Hormuz with mines or blockades.
It has simply made the passage feel unsafe through little acts (little, in comparison with the US-Israel blitz): A drone near a tanker off Fujairah, a strike on an oil pipeline at the Fujairah oil industrial zone, a fire at a storage tank near Dubai international airport.
Each incident ripples through shipping schedules and insurance contracts long before it shows up on a military balance sheet.
The 1973 oil shock, when Arab producers cut output after the Arab-Israeli war and oil prices quadrupled, is the relevant precedent Pape cites.
The oil producers paid little or nothing in the way of political price because the world still needed their oil.
Iran is betting on the same arithmetic. [Robert A Pape on Twitter (external link), elaborate analysis on Substack (external link)]
......
Gautam

[A_Gupta]

Russia's Epic Roast of Arabs on Cam: Lavrov’s Brutal Takedown Goes Viral Amid Iran Vs US-Israel War
A past exchange featuring Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is going viral again as Iran steps up its retaliation in the war with the U.S. and Israel. In the remarks, Lavrov pushed back against Arab calls for Moscow to pressure Iran alone, arguing that Gulf states should also condemn U.S. and Israeli attacks if they want a credible regional push for de-escalation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U10WYOOf40

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2034037815718088846
@DrEliDavid
Israel's intelligence is next-level:

4 IRGC commanders in Lebanon tried to hide. They booked 15 hotel rooms under false names, and used only 1 room. They disabled all hotel security cameras.

All 4 were killed today with a single missile to their room. No hotel guest was harmed.

[uddu]

https://x.com/OpIndia_com/status/2033868446736519638
@OpIndia_com
Israel claims two big hits in Iranian leadership.

"Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and the regime’s effective leader, has been eliminated."

"Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of Basij unit, has been eliminated", claim
@IDF

[A_Gupta]

"The Iranian regime has told Sky News if you put boots on the ground in Iran, it will be another Vietnam. Are you afraid of that?" a reporter asked. "No, I'm not afraid of, I'm really not afraid of anything," the president {Trump} responded.