uddu wrote: ↑21 Mar 2026 08:24
This was expected. Now what they could not achieve is to claim victory the way they wanted. The expectation was to get the Arab states and allies to do the ground war and then claim victory once they win the ground war. They will act but they wanted foot soldiers to manage the captured territory. The Arabs were not keen who could not get the Pakistanis to die for them.
There is diplomatic action going on between India, Arab states and French and Malaysia. They are seeking PM Narendra Modi's help in resolving the matter.
The U.S and Israel has also achieved their objectives to a large extend. From nothing they made what Trump claimed. That's true too.
Now what need to be looked at is what the Iranians will say. Things will pan out based on their decision.
If Iran agrees for peace, it's business as usual for others with a weak Iran in their neighborhood. Iran will go and dig out the IRGC boats and Missiles and in about 6 months or a year, it's rinse and repeat but with a much more weaker Iran. Chinese missiles and systems will get replaced with Russian ones by Iran. Arab states could also bring in alternatives like Akash, VSHORADS, VLRSAM etc to take out the cheaper drones being launched at them. They will diversify a section of their weaponry to Indian and South Korean. Once war is over, there is peace Akash, QRSAM, VLSRSAM, VSHORADS etc can move to UAE and Oman. These two countries being our tradition partners in West Asia should be protected.
Some of the reality I thought through.
US options:
1. Bring in real number of ground troops, capture some strategic shores and Islands around Hormuz. Capture and hold Kharg Island and then let Iran do what ever it wants.
Risks
1. Iran knows this already and will make sure the operations to capture these strategic spots as painful as possible.
2. The cost of capturing and holding these spots is so high that it becomes a political nightmare for DJT to win the confidence of congress to fund the operation for the desired amount of time.
3. What starts as a limited operation becomes a full fledged ground invasion and becomes an Afghanistan redux.
2. Do exactly what Trump says and leave the area. Other countries will make a deal with Iran and move on with their lives.
Risks
1. Israel may continue to hit Iran and Iran continues the current strategy and the strait continues to be closed.
2. Other countries start buying oil and gas from other sources and the gulf economy collapses and that will have direct impact the value of the dollar (petro dollar collapse).
So IMO everything hinges on Israel and Iran coming to some sort of compromise to stop the war. None of the above scenario is helpful for Trump and by extension Republican party political life for the next 4-6 years.
