West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

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SRajesh
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by SRajesh »

This war on Eyeran : what is the real motive??
1. Regime change: not achieved
2. BM and Drone power depletion: not achieved
3. Breaking up of IRGC and Military hold: not achieved
4. Eradication of theocratic rule: not achieved
5. Erasure of Shia might: not achieved
But what if the real purpose was totally different???
Just a thought:
Three of top 6 economies lies to the east of Hormuz.
None have worthwhile fossil fuels reserves
All dependent on ME oils and GCC making huge profits from them
All three are looking to take over the lead role
One lost badly in WW II and still sulking from the dep
One feels it’s ordained by the Heavens to lead
And the third preaches of world being one happy family
What if the reason was two fold:
1. Denying cheap oil for these countries
2. Break GCC cheap profits and make them pay for costly military toys
3. Keep the Shia Sunni pot stirring
4. And as a sweetener: hand Hormuz to Eyeran to raise tolls and replenish their stocks
And most importantly keep Pax America numero uno for decades to come
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Iran War Reveals Delhi as World’s 1st Genuine Connector Power: Israeli Analyst
The war with Iran did not change the world. It exposed it. It peeled away layer after layer of assumptions about deterrence, freedom of navigation, dependence on energy, and loyalties, and left behind one reality: whoever cannot speak with everyone will have influence over no one.

Superpowers are no longer enough. A different kind of power is beginning to shape the system. In that space, India is no longer just another major player. It is the only point of connection that did not burn.

Delhi did not present itself as a mediator. It did not need to. It did not cut a single line. While others chose a side or were forced to explain why, India kept working with Washington, Jerusalem, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Moscow, and Tehran.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by skumar »

Iran is enjoying some quiet support as the country standing up to a bully and the illegal nature of the war. However, Iran may lose that support in a couple of weeks if it seeks to punish the rest of the world wrt Hormuz as a proxy for the US when it cannot directly impose costs on the US.

All the F35s/F15s, drones, C130s, AWACS, radar systems cited as losses constitute a third or fourth decimal percentage of the US forces.

What can deter the US -
  • The biggest factor would be human losses which have been understated so far and is managing to keep the pressure off.
  • Losing MAGA support and the pressure is telling in Trump's unhinged statements. The 6 weeks deadline mentioned earlier is already past. His promise to not get into any new wars is broken and can never be reclaimed.
  • Internal dissent within Trump cabinet with the NYT story on JD Vance "advising against the war but promising to support it" - JD did not deny the story.
The Islamabad initiative is about two sides talking big but not able to force the issue. Given the gap between the positions of the two sides, the result is a foregone conclusion. Either side making a concession to the other's demands will be seen as the loser, which neither side can afford. Any reprieve will be temporary.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Sharing: From Barry Rosen
(Barry Rosen is a former American diplomat who was one of the 52 hostages held for 444 days during the Iran Hostage Crisis (1979–1981).At the time of the crisis, he served as the U.S. Press Attaché at the embassy in Tehran. Because of his background as a Peace Corps volunteer in Iran and his fluency in Farsi, he was specifically targeted by his captors as a "spy and plotter.

Current Context & Background: He remains an active voice on U.S.-Iran relations. He recently described the current escalation and potential war as a “lose-lose situation” for the United States...I share some of these views)
I was thirty-something years old when Iranian students dragged me into a room and told me I wasn't going anywhere. Four hundred and forty-four days later, I walked out. I've spent the decades since trying to make sense of what happened — and what keeps happening — between our two countries.

So don't talk to me about Iran like it's an abstraction. I lived inside that confrontation. I felt it.
Which is why I'm not ready to write off this ceasefire, even though everything about it is maddening.
Negotiations in Pakistan may produce nothing. The talks could collapse before they get started. I've seen American diplomacy with Iran fail more times than I can count, and usually for the same reasons — too much pride, too little patience, and Israel holding a match in the corner of the room.

But here's what I know in my bones: another war won't break Iran. We just tried. It didn't work. Iran doesn't break — it absorbs, it adapts, and it waits. I watched that stubbornness up close for 444 days.

What bothers me most isn't that Iran is winning this moment — it's that we handed it to them. Tehran's framework is running these negotiations. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz. Still collecting tolls. Trump looked at their proposal and called it workable. I never thought I'd see the day, but here we are.

Iran wants everything on the table — sanctions, enrichment rights, American troops out, and a deal that covers what's happening in Lebanon and Gaza too. That's a lot to swallow. And Israel, which wasn't invited to this conversation, is already making clear it has no intention of being constrained by it.

That's the part that worries me the most. Because if Israel keeps bombing and Washington can't or won't stop it, none of this holds.

And yet — and I say this as someone who has every reason to distrust Tehran — I don't think we go back to all-out war. Not because anyone has suddenly gotten wise, but because the math doesn't work. A second round ends the same way. Iran still controls the Strait. The global economy still flinches when Tehran flexes.
What we're heading toward isn't peace. It's something smaller and more precarious — two countries silently agreeing not to destroy each other today, with no paperwork and no guarantees.

I know what it's like to survive on something that fragile. For 444 days, that's all I had.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

krisna wrote: 11 Apr 2026 07:30
Amber G. wrote: 11 Apr 2026 05:33 <snip>
It has been said by many but I will say it again: why is Jared Kushner able to represent the U.S. in these negotiations??

He was not elected, he was not confirmed, he has no security clearance, he has no background in diplomacy, & and he has ENORMOUS conflicts of interest. His knowledge about nuclear physics is close to ZERO.
kitchen cabinet I alluded to in one of my previous posts. :rotfl: This is a part of any POTUS since the dawn of america as a country .
@krisna gaaru, I want to add my reading FWIW.

1. First kitchen cabinet was by JFK (in recent times). He appointed RFK as his AG.
2. Bill Clinton had HiC. For all practical purposes, they were a team during Clinton years.
3. Bush jr. was a dynast and Cheney was Bush Sr.'s man.
4. There was no doubt Michelle O had outsized influence on BHO.
5. OM first term, he had Ivanka and Jarred as his close advisors.
6. We all know how intrusive Dr. Jill Biden was in Biden's administration.
7. Now this.
------------------------
Another point I want to make is this.
(CC @balaji gaaru)

We should look at the team that was constituted to represent the US - one Catholic, two Jews. They are meeting two Shia in Sunni shittistan.

Internal squabbles within the Abrahamic fold.

Had the talks happened during Biden, a baptist (nominally hindu background) would have led. They also would have met in Shittistan onlee.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote: 10 Apr 2026 13:13 https://newrepublic.com/post/208815/tru ... -ceasefire
Bombshell Report Reveals Trump Was Begging for Iran to Join Ceasefire

Recent reporting from the Financial Times reveals it was President Trump, not the Iranian government, who was begging for a ceasefire.

FT reports that the Trump administration had been privately pushing for a ceasefire
FT is a London-based newspaper probably run by some hedge funds and international wheelers and dealers operating out of London. 'nuff said.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

Financial Times wikipedia page says this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial ... s_politics
United States politics

In the 2008 United States presidential election, the Financial Times endorsed Barack Obama. While it raised concerns over hints of protectionism, it praised his ability to "engage the country's attention", his calls for a bipartisan politics, and his plans for "comprehensive health-care reform".[81] The FT favoured Obama again in the 2012 United States presidential election.[82] The FT endorsed Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton in the run-up to the 2016 United States presidential election, Joe Biden in the 2020 United States presidential election, and Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election.[83][84][85]
It is but natural to be suspicious of a newspaper that shows bias against Trump.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

I am sure the Financial Times would have had a bias against Stalin, and Mao, and Franco, and Mussolini and Hitler.
Curse it, why can't we find a publication without a bias??????
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

SRajesh wrote: 11 Apr 2026 21:02 This war on Eyeran : what is the real motive??
1. Regime change: not achieved
2. BM and Drone power depletion: not achieved
3. Breaking up of IRGC and Military hold: not achieved
4. Eradication of theocratic rule: not achieved
5. Erasure of Shia might: not achieved
But what if the real purpose was totally different???
Just a thought:
Three of top 6 economies lies to the east of Hormuz.
None have worthwhile fossil fuels reserves
All dependent on ME oils and GCC making huge profits from them
All three are looking to take over the lead role
One lost badly in WW II and still sulking from the dep
One feels it’s ordained by the Heavens to lead
And the third preaches of world being one happy family
What if the reason was two fold:
1. Denying cheap oil for these countries
2. Break GCC cheap profits and make them pay for costly military toys
3. Keep the Shia Sunni pot stirring
4. And as a sweetener: hand Hormuz to Eyeran to raise tolls and replenish their stocks
And most importantly keep Pax America numero uno for decades to come
If any of this happens, it is because of the law of unintended consequences. "God laughs at the plans of man" has real meaning, in that no human and no AI could compute the consequences, let alone plan them.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Latest: (From News Sources) Islamabad Talks will continue for another round based on a Pakistani proposal, with the approval of both the Iranian and US delegations, the Iranian government has said.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Trump before the War:
We will free the Iranian People from the Iranian Regime by Op Epic Furry.
Trump 45 days later:
We will bomb you if you don’t free the Strait of Hormuz.
(Strait of Hormuz was open and free before the war began.)
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

A_Gupta wrote: 12 Apr 2026 03:08 I am sure the Financial Times would have had a bias against Stalin, and Mao, and Franco, and Mussolini and Hitler.
Curse it, why can't we find a publication without a bias??????
I forget the name of that law but this will end the discussion here. For those who want to have a law from Indic sources, I call it "The Law of Ashwatthaama Using Brahmastra".

(added later): From Wikipedia
Godwin's law (or Godwin's rule), short for Godwin's law of Nazi analogies,[1] is an Internet adage asserting: "As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one."[2] The law's creator, Mike Godwin, maintains these comparisons often trivialize the Holocaust. It is an example of the reductio ad Hitlerum fallacy.
Last edited by Vayutuvan on 12 Apr 2026 05:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

A_Gupta wrote: 12 Apr 2026 03:14 If any of this happens, it is because of the law of unintended consequences. "God laughs at the plans of man" has real meaning, in that no human and no AI could compute the consequences, let alone plan them.

"The best laid schemes o' mice an' men / Gang aft agley" ("The best-laid plans of mice and men / Often go awry") - Robert Burns
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

A_Gupta wrote: 12 Apr 2026 03:08 I am sure the Financial Times would have had a bias against Stalin, and Mao, and Franco, and Mussolini and Hitler.
Curse it, why can't we find a publication without a bias??????
Reminds me of this famous Subhashita (The Bee vs. The Fly). It compares the seeker of virtue to the seeker of faults:
मक्षिका व्रणमिच्छन्ति मधुमिच्छन्ति षट्पदाः।
नीचाः दोषमिच्छन्ति गुणमिच्छन्ति साधवः॥

(Rough translation)
The fly seeks out the wound (the sore). ; But the honeybee seeks only the honey."
Some people seeks only the faults/biases ;" The wise person seeks only the substance (virtues).
(ignoring the actual reporting /facts because one has found a "wound" (.. bias of the FT)..

PS - Sky News also exposing => absolute panic inside the White House..
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

<video>McGowan nailed it. Trump inherited a deal that blocked Iran's nukes. He ripped it up for nothing. No better deal. Just chaos. He went to war for another country. He spent billions. He killed thousands. He threatened genocide. And he asking his supporters to call him a negotiator.

McGowan: Can just let me speak for like one fricken second, bro?

Rothman: Sorry.

McGowan: There was a deal and Trump came in and said, I can get a better deal. And he ripped it up and he didn't get a better deal. And then he went into that country at the request of another country's leader, and he spent $50 billion and killed thousands of civilians and at least 13 American soldiers and hundreds of American soldiers are injured. We've hurt our bases. We've hurt our radar. People hate the country now. We had a president say that we're going to destroy an entire civilization…. That does not make you a good negotiator. That doesn't make you a good guy. It makes you psychotic.


The 'deal' is what I have posted about before was in Obama's era - formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was a landmark agreement reached in July 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, plus Germany) and the EU). Trump ripped it up.
Last edited by Amber G. on 12 Apr 2026 06:52, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

Amber G. wrote: 12 Apr 2026 06:14 (Rough translation)
The fly seeks out the wound (the sore). ; But the honeybee seeks only the honey."
Some people seeks only the faults/biases ;" The wise person seeks only the substance (virtues).
...
Exactly the point. TDS folks seek out the wounds of POTUS.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by vera_k »

I'll say the JCPOA deal was bad because India was not involved! So, great it was blown up.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Exactly the point. TDS folks seek out the wounds of POTUS.
Invoking 'TDS' is the ultimate काकदन्त-परीक्षा (Note**).. Labeling the observer doesn't change the observation.

*****
Note** - For those who have not heard the term, काकदन्त-परीक्षा or "Examining the Crow's Teeth," refers to a useless, exhausting inquiry into something that doesn't exist. Invoking "TDS" is exactly this—it’s an obsessive search for the critic's "teeth" (motives) to avoid acknowledging the "peck" (the facts) right in front of one's face.

I also like to talk about such labels - If every critique is labeled 'TDS,' then the term becomes 'केवल-अन्वयि '—a universal label that applies to everything and therefore explains nothing. It’s a convenient 'Brahmastra' to end a debate, but it doesn't actually answer the data.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Iran Amb Dr Md Fathali thanks the people of India for humanitarian aid.
"People of India, demonstrated that they are reliable, compassionate partners in difficult times, in times of hard ship...extend thanks to the Indian govt for facilitating'
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Saudi Official Blasts US Over Refinery Attack and Iran Peace Efforts

“When our refinery was hit, we asked America for help—they stayed silent. Now, as we pursue de-escalation with Iran, the US is sabotaging our efforts. They want war. America is a war empire that cannot survive without conflict.”
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by bala »

JD Vance says US and Iran did not come to a deal after a marathon session. So much for the fluff by Brit news media, Reuters (which is over-run by jihadi newspeople) and the usual BS spewing left leaning media garbage of the US.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCzV-SD9bVY

// the US will not agree to anything nuclear (JCPOA is dead and useless rubbish) and would want Hormuz free and clear. The rest like relaxing sanctions will be based on Iran's action record. Lebanon is off the table too.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

IDF Hunts Down Hezbollah Gunmen| On Cam: Terrorists Run For Cover Before Troops' Lebanon Strike
The IDF has published drone footage showing the military hunting down Hezbollah gunmen in southern Lebanon. The video shows the identification of armed Hezbollah operatives by the 146th Division, which is operating in the western sector of southern Lebanon. Some of the operatives were seen fleeing, before they were targeted in strikes. Watch this video for more information.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

US Destroyers Enter Persian Gulf - Strait Still Open? | Plus, Empty Supertankers Heading to the US
On April 11, 2026, US Central Command announced that two US destroyers - USS Frank E Peterson (DDG-121) and USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) - transited the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf. This is part of a broader mission to ensure that the Strait is fully clear of sea mines and reopen the Internationally recognized channel between Oman and Iran, vice the one that is controlled by Iran and the IRGC. This coincided with the opening of talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan. We also discuss the rerouting of empty Very Large Crude Carriers to loading ports outside of the Persian Gulf.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

This kind of technology developed inhouse will help hunt terrorists hiding in caves.
CIA’s TERRIFYING "Ghost Murmur" Weapon in Iran EXPLAINED
So, why exactly is this considered the CIA’s most powerful surveillance weapon to date.
Well it has The ability to track and lock onto the single heartbeat of one person friend or foe from forty miles away.

On April 2026, this concept became a reality.

With this classified tech, U.S. forces didn't even need a radio signal.
They could locate a single man hidden in a cave from forty miles out—just by zeroing in on his heartbeat.

Our 3D animators created a simplified model of this overclocked system to show how it works.

It uses engineered synthetic diamonds to create a long-range quantum sensor. Strapped to a helicopter, it can detect the tiny electromagnetic pulse of a beating heart from miles away.

So, why use this specific Technology to find the Missing Weapon System Officer instead of the usual tech.

Well it is Because infrared cameras and satellites are completely useless when your target is buried deep inside a mountain.

In short, the CIA can now track your actual heartbeat.

If you're an Friend , this tech could be the lifeline that brings you home.
But if you're the enemy

Not even the caves or the desert can hide you anymore.

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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

Amber G. wrote: 12 Apr 2026 07:20
Exactly the point. TDS folks seek out the wounds of POTUS.
Invoking 'TDS' is the ultimate काकदन्त-परीक्षा (Note**).. Labeling the observer doesn't change the observation.

*****
Note** - For those who have not heard the term, काकदन्त-परीक्षा or "Examining the Crow's Teeth," refers to a useless, exhausting inquiry into something that doesn't exist. Invoking "TDS" is exactly this—it’s an obsessive search for the critic's "teeth" (motives) to avoid acknowledging the "peck" (the facts) right in front of one's face.

I also like to talk about such labels - If every critique is labeled 'TDS,' then the term becomes 'केवल-अन्वयि '—a universal label that applies to everything and therefore explains nothing. It’s a convenient 'Brahmastra' to end a debate, but it doesn't actually answer the data.
I have a simpler saying - some people are beyond hope and beyond help.
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Post by uddu »

Pakistani Fauj will fight alongside Saudi's, American's and Israel, but the Political class will stand with Iran.
Is this not the story from the Mahabharata? :D
Pakistani Air Force to Saudi. Navy to Iran. Army will be split between two countries.
https://x.com/i/status/2042922128727581047
@sidhant
Pakistan has sent fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, says Saudi Defence Ministry
Image
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Post by uddu »

https://x.com/i/status/2043018364994621446
@DrSJaishankar
A real pleasure to meet DPM & FM @ABZayed of UAE in Abu Dhabi this evening.

Our conversation focused on the evolving regional situation and its implications.

Conveyed our deep appreciation for ensuring the well-being of the Indian community in the UAE.

Confident that our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership will advance further.

🇮🇳 🇦🇪
Image
Image
Image
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by williams »

IMO Trump can still achieve pyrrhic victory and decimate Iran. But he has already brought the whole world to deeply distrust America. He has already lost the young voters, Hispanic coalition, Reagan democrats and some of the Republican base. What is left is a percentage of Tea party crowd and some loyal and older conservatives. So from my understanding midterms is already a goner.

Israeli's have lost the world support for their cause already. They can use as much brute force they want but they are not going to gain legitimacy for any new settlements in Gaza or Lebanon. Their Jihadi problem will not vanish.

GCC has seen the limits of American security umbrella and Saudi's have seen the limits of the Paki pact.

So I am not buying the American deep state propaganda that they some how gained strategic advantage across the globe. In my mind the next step is going to a be a slow movement of global de-dollarization. Countries are going to seriously work on reducing middle east oil dependency. India has an unique opportunity to get out of a middle power status to a geopolitical pole.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

Asking to return the money worked. Few more for the Jernali's made Terroristan rush their forces to Saudi. American's can go home now.
Saudi Arabia Dumps US Protection As Pakistan Deploys Jets, Support Aircraft Under Defense Pact | MBS
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Jay »

uddu wrote: 12 Apr 2026 09:07 This kind of technology developed inhouse will help hunt terrorists hiding in caves.
CIA’s TERRIFYING "Ghost Murmur" Weapon in Iran EXPLAINED
So, why exactly is this considered the CIA’s most powerful surveillance weapon to date.


I think this is all cloak and dagger. Every pilot ejects the plane with a secured link beacon and the US would have known where he was to a couple of square miles.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

The Ceasefire must have given the U.S the ability to have a relook at the strategy and the current strength of the Iranian's. Seems they are confident and ready to take on Iran in round 2. Probably the Drama of Ceasefire and talks were a cover to gain some time and re-strategize and Pakistan played along.
OPEN IMMEDIATELY: US Did Something Huge to OPEN the Strait of Hormuz…


Iran-US War: US Navy Begins Mine-Clearing Ops In Strait Of Hormuz Amid Iran War Tensions
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

Jay wrote: 12 Apr 2026 10:38 I think this is all cloak and dagger. Every pilot ejects the plane with a secured link beacon and the US would have known where he was to a couple of square miles.
Seems so. Tech though is quite interesting if developed.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by williams »

https://hormuzstraitmonitor.com

^^^ Best way to monitor how open is the Strait :).

And also average gas price in the US: https://gasprices.aaa.com

^^^ These two numbers are the key. Rest is all spin.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

Lebanon & Israel to hold direct talks on peace; Iran violates the ceasefire TV7 Israel News 10 Apr.
1) The IDF Chief of Staff asserts that Hezbollah, which is Iran’s terror proxy in Lebanon, is experiencing deep shock – as the war persists.
2) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announces direct negotiations with the Lebanese government – as Jerusalem and Beirut aim to disarm Hezbollah.
3) The Ayatollah regime in Iran is in breach of the ceasefire – as the Strait of Hormuz remains inherently blocked.

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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

BREAKING: Trump Shares Article Suggesting He Has The Option of Enforcing a Naval Blockade on Iran
Amber G.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

uddu wrote: 12 Apr 2026 10:41
Jay wrote: 12 Apr 2026 10:38 I think this is all cloak and dagger. Every pilot ejects the plane with a secured link beacon and the US would have known where he was to a couple of square miles.
Seems so. Tech though is quite interesting if developed.
Okay, read if interested..

Let\. me be blunt - The viral story about the CIA’s "Ghost Murmur" tracking heartbeats from 40 miles away is absolute hogwash. It’s a classic "tall tale" dressed up in phony-sounding military jargon to bait clicks.

Here is the reality check
  • The "Real" Science: The mention of synthetic diamonds with nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers is actually based on brilliant, Nobel-prize-adjacent physics. These sensors are real, but their sensitivity (of the *best* kind) is in the picotesla (pT) range. They are marvels of engineering, but they aren't magic. Heart also produces magnetic dipole field and they can be measured by such sensitive equipments.

    For reference Earth Magnetic field ~50,000,000 pT, Typical Refrigerator Magnet ~5,000,000,000 pT
    Human Heartbeat (at the chest) ~10 to 50 pT -- so these sensor are *very* sensitive.
  • The Math Problem: Physics has a strict rule called the Inverse Cube Law for magnetic dipoles. A heart's magnetic field is tiny at the source; by the time you reach 40 miles out, that signal has decayed into a literal nothingness (10^(-17)) that is physically impossible to recover.
  • The Noise Floor: Even if you had a "super-sensor," the electronics and engines of a helicopter would generate magnetic noise trillions of times stronger than a human heart. It would be like trying to hear a single ant walking. 1000 Km away .. while standing next to a space shuttle launch.
  • Current Limits: The best quantum magnetometers we have today can measure a heart from a few centimeters away in a controlled lab, not from across a mountain range.
The Likely Origin: This story is likely a "hallucination" of real tech—specifically the Quantum Magnetometers for Inertial Navigation (INS), If I have to guess, :) may from this post from BRF :) As noted in that post the Pentagon is using these sensors to navigate by the Earth's magnetic field (which is massive), not to spy on your pulse. (India is working in similar models)

As someone with a Medtronic Reveal loop recorder implanted in my chest, I find this particularly *interesting. (This loop recorder does not work as a magnetometer but on a much simple principles, but still)..If the CIA really had a heartbeat-tracking helicopter, I wish I knew it. I could have saved myself the surgery and just waved at the sky for my check-ups! ;)
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Here it the earlier post I referred in my post above - for ease to access. I am posting it here, as this is technology is quite helpful in the era of GPS spoofing which is becoming very common;

Here is the post from "Root Cause Analysis of the Delhi ATC / GPS Interference Incident"
Amber G. wrote: 23 Nov 2025 23:23 Saw this in WSJ article - here’s a short summary + (my analysis/thoughts -
“The Pentagon Can’t Trust GPS Anymore — Is Quantum Physics the Answer?”

-The Pentagon is testing quantum-based navigation sensors — specifically, a quantum magnetometer that measures Earth’s magnetic field by shining lasers on rubidium atoms.

- In a recent trial (in Griffith, Australia), this quantum sensor performed significantly better than traditional inertial navigation over long flights, staying stable without signal drift.

-Quantum sensing is being funded seriously by the U.S. DoD — seen as a key part of a multi-layered navigation strategy for contested environments where GPS may be denied.
---
I seems that isn’t a “just a research toy” — it’s potentially a real operational fallback for drones, ships, and aircraft in GPS-denied zones. No it’s not a drop-in replacement yet still for countries thinking about GPS security (like India), this kind of quantum navigation capability is something to watch...


To put the "Ghost Murmur" claim into perspective:
1. The Background Noise: You are standing in a field of 50 million pT (the Earth).
2. The Target: You are looking for a signal of 50 pT (the heart).
3. The Distance: That 50 pT signal is only that "strong" right against the skin. By the time you are 40 miles (64,000 meters) away, the signal has dropped by a factor of roughly 10^{17} due to the Inverse Cube Law.

Mathematically, trying to detect a heartbeat from a helicopter 40 miles away is like trying to hear a single ant's footsteps while standing next to a roaring jet engine—from three states away. The Quantum Magnetometers used for Inertial Navigation (INS) tha I mentioned from the WSJ story are designed to track the 50 million pT "map" of the Earth, which is a much more realistic (though still incredibly difficult) task!

(Along with NavIC, and use of such use in INS are needed to have redundant navigation when GPS/GNSS are spoofed.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Jay wrote: 12 Apr 2026 10:38
uddu wrote: 12 Apr 2026 09:07 This kind of technology developed inhouse will help hunt terrorists hiding in caves.
CIA’s TERRIFYING "Ghost Murmur" Weapon in Iran EXPLAINED
So, why exactly is this considered the CIA’s most powerful surveillance weapon to date.


I think this is all cloak and dagger. Every pilot ejects the plane with a secured link beacon and the US would have known where he was to a couple of square miles.

I think so too. More ridiculous than mission impossible movies.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote: 12 Apr 2026 17:08
Jay wrote: 12 Apr 2026 10:38

I think this is all cloak and dagger. Every pilot ejects the plane with a secured link beacon and the US would have known where he was to a couple of square miles.
I think so too. More ridiculous than mission impossible movies.



Cyrano ji,


With so many MIL satellites over eyeraan, it would be very easy to triangulate the distress signal and have a precise lock on it


they would have known at all times as to where exactly the downed airman was


The standard amriki GPS signal is purposely contaminated during transmission, with a "jitter" that wilfully introduces inaccuracies. This degraded signal is good enough for use by commercial aircraft, merchant ships and is commonly available even on mid range watches, garmin type devices etc. People use them for trekking and such types of recreational use


This same signal, with the jitter removed, is the highly accurate MIL grade GPS signal, used by military flights, missiles, USN ships, submarines, culinary institute, special forces, drug smugglers, gun runners, terrorists, human traffickers et al


The jitter is removed at the receiving end and the output is the accurate MIL grade GPS signal
Last edited by chetak on 12 Apr 2026 18:08, edited 1 time in total.
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