West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[uddu]

They have two realistic videos.
How a US F-15 Jet Was Shot Down & it's Pilot Rescued
How exactly did an F-15 E Strike Eagle get hit while flying a routine mission.

just one of the nearly 13,000 combat sorties flown by the U.S. military

However, it was on this day that Iranian forces successfully targeted an American jet with a Russian-made missile.

Traveling at Mach2.8,

It is specifically designed to engage low-altitude aerial targets by activating a proximity fuse upon arrival Exploding near the rear of the Jet.

But there's one strict code in the U.S. military that overrides everything else: nobody gets left behind.

An A-10 Thunder bolt flew in to the rescue, shredding an approaching ::ee-RAY-nee-uhn:: convoy before they could reach the American pilot.

But this aggressive maneuver came with a massive risk.

Because the A-10 was flying at such a low altitude, Iranian forces armed with thousands of Man pads were able to launch a Chinese-made, shoulder-fired missile.

It found its mark, crippling the A-10's engine.

But this single incident triggered a massive chain reaction.

When two rescue helicopters launched to recover the downed pilot,

they flew right into an ambush taking heavy fire from a Soviet-era ZU-23 anti-aircraft gun."


Surviving Iran: The Insane F-15 Rescue Mission Explained
How did the US pull off one of the most daring rescue operations in history, deep behind enemy lines
It comes down to a strict code the US military lives by: leave no man behind.
They will literally send dozens of attack helicopters and over a hundred Special Forces and Delta operators just to bring one person home.
The mission started when an aircraft went down.
After both crew members ejected, the pilot was successfully extracted, but the Weapons Systems Officer
was injured and stranded. His survival training instantly kicked in. He trekked all the way up to a rugged, mountainous ridge and activated his beacon, just as IRGC militias began closing in on the crash site.
But the CIA was one step ahead.
They initiated a massive deception tactic—a ruse designed to make the IRGC search entirely the wrong location.
When the enemy forces finally realized they had been tricked, all hell broke loose. They swarmed the mountainous ridge, surrounding the injured officer.
Just in time, Special Forces swooped in on Little Bird helicopters, laying down heavy covering fire alongside A-10 Thunderbolts and MQ-9 Reaper drones.
But as they moved toward the extraction point, everything went wrong...
proving the military is willing to burn a $100 million aircraft just to save a single fallen comrade.

[uddu]

Why Iran's Missiles Can't Reach US Navy's Lincoln or Tripoli
Iran's state media claimed USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Tripoli were being targeted. We can't verify that claim. But we can run the physics. And the physics tells a more interesting story than the headline does.

A US Carrier Strike Group is not a target. It is a moving fortress with four concentric layers of defense, each one engineered to kill the threat before it reaches the next. To put a missile on Lincoln, you have to breach all four simultaneously, in real time, under fire. And that's only if your targeting chain is still intact. Iran's isn't.

This episode runs three cold equations: the missile that can't find a moving ship, the magazine that is too empty to saturate, and the one weapon Aegis was never designed to intercept.

#usnavy #ussabrahamlincoln #AegisDefense #NavyDecoded #persiangulf

Timestamps:
0:00 Iran said it. The physics said something different.
1:09 The fortress they claim to have targeted.
2:43 SM-6 kills at 130 miles. What follows is worse.
4:56 Iran called Tripoli soft. It carries 20 F-35s.
6:52 No lock. No coordinates. No missile.
11:40 Four layers stop missiles. Nothing stops a signal.
13:04 The physics is settled. The question is not.

[A_Gupta]

Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump • Truth Social icon Truth Social • April 12, 2026 @ 8:53 AM ET

So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP

——
How should India respond to this?

[uddu]

Iranian President must have had the shock of his life reading this line
and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President
Then went phew...not me

[uddu]

Till now we have to fight the Iranians to get our oil. Now we have to fight the Iranians and the American's to get our oil.

[A_Gupta]

American military personnel seem to be equipped with IoT type devices that monitor health signs and have a range of a one to two hundred meters.

[Lisa]

Strange, MSM who had so much to say about internet interruption in Kashmir is virtually silent on Iranian blackout.

[A_Gupta]

If Trump blockades ships other than Iranian-flagged ships or ships of other countries that touched Iranian ports, that is an act of war against more than Iran.

[A_Gupta]

Freedom House
Iran’s Internet Blackout and the Authoritarian Playbook
Jamie Fly ... In announcing the start of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump urged the people of Iran to “seize control of your destiny” and “take over your...
.
3 weeks ago


DW.com
Iran’s internet blackout fuels fear and isolation
Iran's internet blackout fuels fear and isolation ... As Israeli and US strikes continue to hit Tehran and the regime has imposed an internet blackout, locals say...
.
2 weeks ago


The Japan Times
How Iranians are communicating through internet blackout
Phone calls. Many with ties to Iran are still receiving landline phone calls from inside — "quite surprising" given the blackout, said Mahsa Alimardani of...
.
4 weeks ago


The Guardian
Internet blackout is tool of desperate regime to isolate Iranians, say experts
Internet blackout is tool of desperate regime to isolate Iranians, say experts ... Roughly four hours after the first strikes hit Iran, the country was again...
.
1 month ago


The New York Times
Internet Blackout Keeps Iranians From Reaching Loved Ones During New Year Holiday
Iran has a history of shutting down the internet. In January, the government imposed a nationwide blackout as it sought to suppress massive anti-government...
.
3 weeks ago


CNN
Iranians faced near-total internet blackout for over two weeks
Iranians faced near-total internet blackout for over two weeks ... It has been over two weeks since the US and Israel attacked Iran, and Iranians say they're...
.
4 weeks ago


Northeastern Global News
How Iran cut the internet at the flip of a switch
Iran's nationwide internet shutdown has surpassed its 130th hour as tensions in the Middle Eastern country continue to escalate.
.
Jan 14, 2026


CNBC
Iran's internet blackout extends into second week: NetBlocks
Iran's internet blackout extends into second week: NetBlocks · Data monitoring site says Iran remains in a "regime-imposed national internet blackout".
.
1 month ago


Middle East Eye
How Iranians get around the internet blackout despite the risks and cost
According to NetBlocks, a group that monitors internet access worldwide, Iran has experienced a near-total blackout for 20 consecutive days. Connectivity has...
.
3 weeks ago


Al Jazeera
Iran’s economy falters as internet shutdown hits people, businesses hard
Tehran, Iran – Iran's economic outlook appears increasingly grim more than three weeks after the start of what became one of the most comprehensive and...
.
Feb 2, 2026



The Cloudflare Blog
What we know about Iran’s Internet shutdown
Cloudflare Radar data shows Internet traffic from Iran has effectively dropped to zero since January 8, signaling a complete shutdown in the country and...
.
Jan 13, 2026


WIRED
Iran’s Internet Blackout Adds New Dangers for Civilians Amid Israeli Bombings
Iran's Internet Blackout Adds New Dangers for Civilians Amid Israeli Bombings. Iran is limiting internet connectivity for citizens amid Israeli airstrikes—...
.
Jun 18, 2025


NPR
Iran offline: How a government can turn off the internet : Short Wave
There's an ongoing, near-total blackout of the internet in Iran. The shutdown is part of a response by the government to ongoing protests against rising...
.
Jan 26, 2026


The Record from Recorded Future News
Iran internet blackout reaches 6th day as rights groups call for end to digital shutdown
Iran internet blackout reaches 6th day as rights groups call for end to digital shutdown. The internet shutdown in Iran that began at the start of the war with...
.
1 month ago


www.arabnews.jp
How Iranians are communicating through internet blackout
PARIS: Iran's latest internet blackout has lasted more than 14 days, connectivity monitor Netblocks said on Friday. The nature of the limits on internet...
.
1 month ago


Amnesty International
Iran: Internet shutdown hides violations in escalating deadly crackdown on protesters
Following an internet and telecommunications blackout imposed by Iranian authorities on 8 January 2026, as nationwide protests intensified since erupting on...
.
Jan 9, 2026


Committee to Protect Journalists
Iran’s internet blackout tightens information chokehold amid spreading protests
Share this: ... Paris, January 13, 2026—Iranian authorities have imposed a near-total internet shutdown as nationwide protests intensify, severely restricting...
.
Jan 14, 2026


Council on Foreign Relations
Iran’s Protests and the Internet Blackout That Followed
Iran's authoritarian regime cut internet and phone services in response to nearly two weeks of antigovernment demonstrations that have overtaken the country.
.
Jan 15, 2026


The New York Times
Iran Maintains Near-Total Internet Blackout Amid U.S.-Israeli Strikes
Iran Maintains Near-Total Internet Blackout Amid U.S.-Israeli Strikes. As the war has stretched into its third week, the Iranian government has blocked internet...
.
3 weeks ago


WIRED
The Future of Iran’s Internet Is More Uncertain Than Ever
For more than six days, almost 90 million Iranians have been living under a total internet blackout. The shutdown comes after Iranians endured a similar...
.
1 month ago


Access Now
Connect the population: Access Now demands end to Iran’s continued internet blackout amid war
As the war enters its 12th day, millions of people in Iran have been cut off from the global internet at a moment when access to communications and reliable...
.
1 month ago


Georgia Tech News Center
Iran’s Latest Internet Blackout Extends to Phones and Starlink
Iran's Latest Internet Blackout Extends to Phones and Starlink. The Iranian regime's internet shutdown, initiated on Jan. 8, 2026, has severely diminished the...
.
Jan 16, 2026


NPR
There's an internet blackout in Iran. How are videos and images getting out?
The Iranian leadership, which tightly controls the internet, has pushed back. The authorities tried to quash Starlink's use through regulation and legal...
.
Jan 15, 2026


Human Rights Watch
Iran: Internet Shutdown Violates Rights, Escalates Risks to Civilians
(Beirut) – Iranian authorities should immediately end the ongoing internet shutdown and communications restrictions, which place civilians at risk of...
.
1 month ago


The Conversation
Iran’s regime has shut down the internet in the middle of war – placing civilians in the crosshairs
Iran's regime has shut down the internet in the middle of war – placing civilians in the crosshairs ... On February 28, hours after the United States and Israel...
.
1 month ago


NDTV
30 Days Into Internet Blackout, Iranians Get War Updates From Friends
Iran's nationwide internet blackout was on its 30th consecutive day on Sunday, leaving millions cut off from information and communication since the war with...
.
2 weeks ago


RSF.org
Internet blackout in Iran: RSF condemns the information blackout orchestrated by the regime amid war with Israel
Internet blackout in Iran: RSF condemns the information blackout orchestrated by the regime amid war with Israel. RSF. Organisation: ... The internet has been...
.
Jun 20, 2025


The New York Times
Iran Is Cut Off From Internet as Protests Calling for Regime Change Intensify
Iran plunged into an internet blackout on Thursday, monitoring groups said, as nationwide protests demanding the ouster of the Islamic government spread to...
.
Jan 9, 2026


The New York Times
Iranians Find Pockets of Connection Amid Internet Blackout
Since at least Wednesday, the Iranian government has significantly restricted internet access across the country, with a government spokeswoman, Fatemeh...
.
Jun 21, 2025

etc.

------

If the issue is about the Indian Mainstream media raising the issue of the Kashmir internet blackout, it is entirely appropriate for the Indian media to pay a lot of attention to an issue in India, and much less so to that in a foreign country. India is not running the equivalent of USCIRF; its foreign policy does not involve trying to enforce human rights in other countries.

What about e.g., Bangladesh - India not dealing with the Yunus government? That was not about human rights, it was about the legitimacy of the government.

Similarly with Pakistan. Should India choose to enter serious talks with Pakistan (don't worry, it won't), the immediate problem is - who is the legitimate negotiation partner? The primary issue is terrorism of course, but "who is the legitimate authority in Pakistan, whose agreements will persist change of governments?" is a serious secondary issue.

[Tanaji]

If Trump blockades ships other than Iranian-flagged ships or ships of other countries that touched Iranian ports, that is an act of war against more than Iran.

Saar, this is weekend so market manipulation time. He will back off on TACO Tuesday.

[bala]

After failure of talks in Shittistan by US and Iran, everything is kaput for Iran. Iran had a chance and they blew it. The US will show them who is the boss.

Looks like Cheen is in a bind. Now ME oil going to cheen will be choked by US in return for their Rare earths and more. US will completely control the oil flow in ME and all players will toe the line laid out by US.

For Iran their outlook looks bleak. No nuclear stuff anymore, no oil revenues, most systems are damaged or useless in the military sense and their internal dissent will climb up as time goes by.

[A_Gupta]

The latest USD to Rial conversion I was able to find:
United States Dollar / Iranian Rial 1,316,125
Apr 10, 5:39:00 PM UTC

Feb 27, before the war started, the rate was 1310799.

Note that as a infrequently traded currency, the rates might be a record of one deal that was done around that date.

[srin]

The logic probably is that India, China & Japan (big customers) would put pressure on Iran but in the process, did he just screw over his GCC allies by announcing blockade of Hormuz ?
India and China can somehow manage with Russian oil, but Europeans wouldn't be happy at all.

Also, if Iran's Houthi allies can turn up heat in the Red Sea by mining the Bab al-Mandab strait...

[krithivas]

GoI must articulate a position now. Silence is not an option at this point in time. IMO.

[Vayutuvan]

... It’s a convenient 'Brahmastra' to end a debate, but it doesn't actually answer the data (1).

I have a simpler saying - some people are beyond hope and beyond help(2).

1. What data was provided other than an assertion that Trump wanted the ceasefire? I provided data that FT endorsed every opponent of Trump.

2. "A basket full of diplorables"?!!! Americans have to hear it from FT, a British newspaper? Why are they in the endorsing business? Aren't they supposed to be reporting on matters of finance? Also what is their standing in the American elections? Why should Americans listen to some a paper published from the City which is the fount of all kinds of scams and schemes?

[Vayutuvan]

Next up, some folks here will stand up for FT even if they endorse Rahul Gandhi. They might have done it already. One can find out easily enough.

[Vayutuvan]

Saar, this is weekend so market manipulation time. He will back off on TACO Tuesday.

That too. But the long-term play is to pump money into MIC and create jobs in the supply chain industries. Probably it is some kind of stupid Keynesian theory being pushed by some in the American administration.

[Vayutuvan]

This is a little OT but let me post this here and invite those interested to discuss it further in some other thread.

AI Overview

The Financial Times (FT) generally presents a mixed, analytical view of India, recognizing its potential as a rapidly growing major economy while frequently scrutinizing its democratic health, geopolitical choices, and economic inequality. As of 2025-2026, the publication has highlighted India’s strategic importance and economic opportunities, while also questioning trade choices and democratic standards.

Key aspects of the Financial Times on India include:

Economic Outlook: The FT strongly highlights India's potential, with experts like Martin Wolf stating it is "overwhelmingly certain" that India will be the fastest-growing big economy for the next 10-20 years.

Geopolitical Positioning: The FT reports on India's complex role as a crucial strategic partner, particularly with its participation in the Quad, while sometimes questioning its independent stance on issues like Russia.

Democratic and Social Concerns: The publication frequently raises concerns about the erosion of civil and political rights, freedom of expression, and rising autocratic trends.

Investigative Focus: The FT has shown a critical eye toward large Indian conglomerates, notably refusing to retract reports on the Adani group.

Challenges Highlighted: FT analysis often touches upon the need to create more jobs for the youth and challenges in the agricultural sector.

Disclaimer: This summary is based on search results and reflects the general tone and content regarding India in the Financial Times.

[Amber G.]

KootNiti:

"अनवरुद्धपूर्वां जलडमरूमध्यं राज-ऐच्छिक-युद्ध-हेतुना निरुध्यमानं रोधं रोद्धुं अन्य-रोधः। एषा हि कूटनीतिः॥"

Translation: "A blockade to block the blockade that's blocking the Strait that wasn't blocked before being blocked due to war of choice launched by a Raja. This is Strategy!'

[Amber G.]

A Tweet from G. Conway:

Blockading a blockade is the work of a pure stable genius like no one has ever seen before. Only @realDonaldTrump
could have thought of this.

It's like, "You think you can shoot at us? Well, we'll show you—we'll shoot ourselves!!"

We should all have tears in our eyes.

[Amber G.]

GoI must articulate a position now. Silence is not an option at this point in time. IMO.

I said this in the opening of this threa:

But India (Bharat) strategy — makes sense

Energy diversification (clean + nuclear + strategic reserves)
Strategic autonomy (not picking rigid sides)
Supply chain leverage (food, pharma, services)

(Also these align with India’s long-term policy anyway.)

....

A more realistic playbook:, IMO:

Maintain ties with:
Iran (connectivity, Chabahar)
Israel (defense, tech)
United States (strategic partnership, Manage Trump wisely )
Gulf states (energy + diaspora)

Avoid direct entanglement
Focus on economic + technological resilience
Quiet diplomacy instead of overt positioning

I still think Modiji's approach ("दर्दुरा यत्र वक्तारस्तत्र मौनं हि शोभनम् = in public - Silence is a good. option).

and

"The US will show them who is the boss..."

..

I think leave this to Trump for "I was thinking about it's gonna be called the Gulf of Trump"< watch this 10 second clip>"

[Amber G.]

Iranian State Media Press TV Exclusive: “US destroyers' Strait of Hormuz transit stunt failed, came close to destruction”.

[Amber G.]

@HouseForeign (US- House Foreign Affairs Committee -Dems )

JD Vance says the goal is getting Iran to commit to not build a nuclear weapon.

It already made that commitment in 2015 under the JCPOA—a deal Trump tore up.

Now this admin has dragged the country into a pointless war to recover ground it gave away—and American families are paying the price.

{This is what most scientists (including USA) also say - see my post at the start of this thread}

[chanakyaa]

If Trump blockades ships other than Iranian-flagged ships or ships of other countries that touched Iranian ports, that is an act of war against more than Iran.

So, Indian oil/gas carriers, if try to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, will be blocked/bombed by the US?? Okay, so this talk drama in Islum-a-bad was, as expected, staged to officially prepare for an excuse to completely block the Strait of Hormuz. Now oil/gas from US, Venezuela, Guyana will flow at much higher prices. Barron gold-spot is genius. Cui Bono??

[Amber G.]

Donald Trump
@realDonaldTrump • Truth Social icon Truth Social • April 12, 2026 @ 8:53 AM ET

So, there you have it, the meeting went well, most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not. Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL! Iran knows, better than anyone, how to END this situation which has already devastated their Country. Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti Aircraft and Radar are useless, Khomeini, and most of their “Leaders,” are dead, all because of their Nuclear ambition. The Blockade will begin shortly. Other Countries will be involved with this Blockade. Iran will not be allowed to profit off this Illegal Act of EXTORTION. They want money and, more importantly, they want Nuclear. Additionally and, at an appropriate moment, we are fully “LOCKED AND LOADED,” and our Military will finish up the little that is left of Iran! President DONALD J. TRUMP

——
How should India respond to this?

Consistent with I have said previously and strongly endorsing Modiji's current actions - My Take:

India (Bharat) shouldn’t get swept into maximalist theatrics around the Strait of Hormuz.

Principles are straightforward - freedom of navigation, no endorsement of blockades, no tolerance for “toll/extortion” either.

Engage all—United States, Iran, Israel, Gulf states—without becoming anyone’s instrument.

Protect core interests quietly - energy flows, shipping lanes, and assets like Chabahar Port.

- No military entanglement. Defensive posture only.

Meanwhile, do the real work:
- diversify energy, build reserves, accelerate nuclear + clean energy, strengthen supply chains.

In a world of loud posturing (see Donald Trump), India’s edge is simple—stay calm, stay useful, stay independent.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile another feather in Trump's cap - JD Vance went to Islamabad just after he campaigned (not making it up) for Orban in Hungary .. Breaking news:

"Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat to Peter Magyar after "painful" election result, ending 16 years in power."

[chanakyaa]

...
How should India respond to this?[/i][/b]

Amber G., sorry but, all this Non-Alignment things and principled positions are fine, but in the near-term there will oil/gas/LPG shortages. Energy hostage situation can't be acceptable to any country, let alone world's most populous country. Consumers and economy in the West are paying slightly higher for oil/gas but no one is standing in line for LPG. I doubt any BRFites are standing in line.

India must to send its oil/gas through the Strait of Hormuz. I'll go even a step further. Not just take vessels thru the Strait, each vessel must carry Nooks and Brahmos.

What is the point of keeping an F*#king Navy, if you can't use it when needed?

If energy access for US or Russia was blocked, do you think they will—stay calm, stay useful, stay independent?

[bala]

The Hormuz strait has gone to the US read more here
Those who believe otherwise can day dream as much as they want. Iran will have to give up its nuke ambition.

[Amber G.]

...
How should India respond to this?[/i][/b]

Amber G., sorry but, all this Non-Alignment things and principled positions are fine, but in the near-term there will oil/gas/LPG shortages. Energy hostage situation can't be acceptable to any country, let alone world's most populous country. Consumers and economy in the West are paying slightly higher for oil/gas but no one is standing in line for LPG. I doubt any BRFites are standing in line.

India must to send its oil/gas through the Strait of Hormuz. I'll go even a step further. Not just take vessels thru the Strait, each vessel must carry Nooks and Brahmos.

What is the point of keeping an F*#king Navy, if you can't use it when needed?

If energy access for US or Russia was blocked, do you think they will—stay calm, stay useful, stay independent?

"Principled position doesn’t mean a 'candlelight vigil.' It means Credible Action over Social Media Bravado.

The 1971 / Operation Sindoor Logic: We didn’t win by making 'Locked and Loaded' posts on Truth Social or issuing empty threats from Rawalpindi. We used the Indian Armed Forces because it was necessary to secure a specific objective. That is the definition of 'Direct Action'—not a mindless, escalatory war that burns the neighborhood down, but the surgical application of force to keep the lanes open.

Force vs. Noise: Trump and Munir specialize in noise. Bharat’s strategy is about being the 'Silent Professional.' If our energy security is choked, the Navy isn't there to 'stay calm'; it’s there to break the chokehold—quietly, effectively, and without becoming a tool for someone else's regional circus.

Securing the Strait of Hormuz requires a scalpel, not a sledgehammer. We do what is necessary to keep the oil flowing. Everything else is just expensive theater.

(Hint: Bharat was one of the few countries whose oil passed through Hormuz when most ships were not able to pass - - just because of 'clout' and soft power - and one does not get soft power by making brave statements alone.)

[krisna]

Attack on iran

< snip >

Continuing on the above




regarding JPCOA deal with iran and usa during obama admin.


Lot of facts are not mentioned.

Iran is for all purposes NOT a NORMAL country because of its open threat to annihilate isreal/jews.

1. obama admin went for the deal - JCPOA with iran. It narrowly focussed on nuke program only.
2. It did not address the ballisitc missiles and targeting of isreal with it. There is clear irrefutable evidence that iran maximised production of misisles ( this is targeting isreal mainly)
3. Iran increased funding for terr0ists - 3 Hs targeting isreal and others with release of sanctions.
4. Iran did keep its promise of halting uranium enrichment at IAEA facilities but not its threat of destruction of jews. It was huge win for iran.
5. Isreal was completely against this deal as usa under obama admin did not address this open threats . No guarantees on its open threats to isreal addressed and its binding just like nuke program was done. No wonder isreal was hopping mad. Its existence was at stake. (This is deadly serious for isreal).

———————————————
China and Russia helped iran to block any mention of missiles and its development. obama admin went with the flawed deal because it wanted nuke deal to be done irrespective of however it is weak or strong it is. Iran easily agreed to it as it had the winning hand ably helped by dragon and bear. Obama admin was more focussed elsewhere in baiitng russian bear.
———————————————

trump as potus during 1 term broke the deal

1. trump admin agreed that iran was holding its bargain wrt nuke deal.
2. trump admin mentioned that deal was too narrow and it was a win for iran which is true. It wanted to address more issues with iran like the threat of missiles and threats to isreal. in 2018 broke the treaty.
3. OM did launch some mijjiles and issued theats to iran.
4. Other issues took over inclduing covid in 2019 later period.

Severe consequences of this flawed deal.

1. massive increase in ballistic missiles which usa and the world is now seeing in full effect.
2. relief of sanctions which helped iran to increase its 3Hs funding on terr0sist attacks on isreal. The october attack 2023 on isreal by hamas , actions of houthis and hezbollah attacks are the direct result of this deal with relief of sanctions.
3. Iran increased the uranium enrichment as expected . This is the least of all severe consequences currently as it is still has not mastered it completely. This is dangerous later.
4. With advnaced capability of misisles This has become severe and can cause all out war with disastrous consequences. Hence iran has to be stopped due to increased threat to isreal and usa itself. Better do it now than later with more advanced iran capabilities.


—————————————————

Flawed approach of usa during previous usa admins--

Initial plan was keep the MENA region in chaos. But obama and biden admin flirted with eastern europe and soft underbelly of russsian bear in targeting and lost focus on iran. obama admin simply did a nuke deal to buy time. Iran capitalised on it.

-----------------------------------
Long term approach of usa admins till the present TACO--

Oil producing regions of the world are in North America , west Asia and Russia.

1. North America is under usa control with venezuela added. Rest of the countries like canada surinam guyana are ok but not out of the grip of usa. canada for all its bravado will sulk for now till orange moneky is there for next 2-3 years, will come back to its embrace later.
2. Russia is a pole apart. This will remain as it is.
3. west asia is destroyed - keep it in choas- orginal plan since the time of post-reagan bush onwards to maintain its petrodollar supremacy.

-----------------------
consequences of actions in venezuela and iran attacks by usa


---- Removal of west asia from global oil markets will cause a sharp economic downturn in asian markets.
dragon, elephant , tiger economies japan korea etc affected badly. These are the challengers. and also hold lot of american treasuries. They have been trying to offset the dollars bond in the market. By destroying the arab lands , economies of asia - challenegers and asain tigers will get a big hit . BRICS is in this mix.

--- removal of russian oil from european markets will hit europe as it is now dependent on arab lands. Current OM admin tried to stablilise europe - thru deals with ukraine russia but failed due to stupidity of 3 of them--- OM along with jokersky and europe stubbornness. All are paying for this now. Putin kaka is in driver position. He is fine to contiue the war for long. here obama and biden admin erred - not knowing how long russia will survive and no good plan. Russia actually became much stronger. By targeting russain assest in western countries, biden admin helped in loss of trust in dollar and accelrated de dollarisation. All countries esp BRICS understood the ficklesness of usa with its stupidity.


----Russia bear got the bad end of the stick with all previous POTUSes not helping them post cold war break up of USSR. Worst was holding russian assests in dollars etc in europe and elsewhere by previous admin. The Minsk treaty by europe (with usa) and russia was a sham. No wonder putin kaka does not believe usa. No wonder whatever OM tried dioplomatically failed. ( OM is a monkey whatever - but uncle is not to be trusted is the key point here).
----------------------------------

Only North America has oil now with venezulea and other countries- windfall for canada usa and other oil producing countries in this region. All under usa control. (North America for all practical purposes is self sufficient . If eurpoe and asia go to dogs , usa will remian top dog and north america will sit pretty)


All countries of the world have to pivot towards North america for oil and keep their economies running--IOW another USA petro dollar diplomacy with military as its side kick to enforce it . Russia and china influence is minimal compared to iran support. (distancve and no land connection relatively) Dollar remains the reserve currency. All countries will depend on it ,american debts become more manageable as every country will depend on it for few more years /decades -- as long as it takes.

- orange monkey because of his known boorish behaviour and mad persoanlity is the perfect POTUS for this harakiri. he will take the fall. he is too nationalist american and is ok with it. he is already 80s in age . he will be protected . he may be impeached if all come together. This is just to protect america as country reputation- if OM is removed , -- all accolades-- america is a peace loving country- will do this that ---- blah blah ........ if he survives and lasts 4 years -- still america will celebrate-- we have removed one of the worst POTUSes in its history. we are back in business. All media will go to town with this. This is all virtue signalling and moral grandstanding.


---------------------------------------------

Net effect will be --


--- arap lands - saudi kuwait iran qatar bahrain etc oil producing capacity destroyed- will take years or decades to be rebuilt.
----safe heaven of UAE- dubai etc damage is collateral. This area is unique with minimal oil trade.

Only beneficial effect will be some reduction in moneies flowing to terr0r groups across the world and to isreal.
------------



Will have to later address from russian dragon perspxcectives --how they see it and their responses.

[krisna]

<snip>

The 1971 / Operation Sindoor Logic: We didn’t win by making 'Locked and Loaded' posts on Truth Social or issuing empty threats from Rawalpindi. We used the Indian Armed Forces because it was necessary to secure a specific objective. That is the definition of 'Direct Action'—not a mindless, escalatory war that burns the neighborhood down, but the surgical application of force to keep the lanes open.

<snip>

(Hint: Bharat was one of the few countries whose oil passed through Hormuz when most ships were not able to pass - - just because of 'clout' and soft power - and one does not get soft power by making brave statements alone.)

AMberji with due respects few comments --

1) 1971 was brilliant military victory . This is only small consolation. We lost geopolitically and are paying a heavy price despite a upper hand due to weak leadership material at that time.

2) Post 2014 - lot of efforts done to reverse the weak incompetent leadership with false prestige and moral grandstanding -- Recent operation Sindoor , balakot strikes URI ones including the return of our IAF pilot was much better . suspension of Indus treaty, removal of MFN, making ISI look stupid and ineffective and RAW look much better

3) I dont want to go into weak policies before 2014 which helped India look stupid and weak. ISI was made into a monster and RAW as weak ineffcetive.

Thanks

[Amber G.]

The Hormuz strait has gone to the US read more here
Those who believe otherwise can day dream as much as they want. Iran will have to give up its nuke ambition.

Not only all this He also saved 30 to 50 Million lives in War with India !!!!


Strange, but not surprising, there are still worshippers of Trump. .. Wonder how long will they still talk about him missing a Noble Peace price. Kid you not in his latest post where he talks about Hormuz and nuke which gets repeated
here..he talks again about greatness of Munir, and Him and saving 30 to 50 Million lives.


Added later: Trump continues to keep Terror Sponsor Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir in his good books. One day American will regret being in bed with a terror sponsor.

[vera_k]

If the blockade continues, then the Iran war, twitter, white house press briefings are all best termed a red herring. The outcome is highly favorable for the US while the rest of the world suffers.

[S_Madhukar]

The Hormuz strait has gone to the US read more here
Those who believe otherwise can day dream as much as they want. Iran will have to give up its nuke ambition.

ALSO there will be no BRI and no BRICS. If you can’t resolve Hormuz then you are not a superpower

[S_Madhukar]

If GCC is damaged then who will fund Greater Israel? It will take time for the Mediterranean oil to become profitable.

Also by screwing up Hormuz and wrecking regional economies is US trying to do Arab spring? GenZ revolution etc ?

[Amber G.]

Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, upon returning from his trip to Pakistan:

-We need to continue our presence in the streets to strengthen our diplomacy of power and authority.

-We do not trust the Americans; the wall of distrust between us is 77 years old.

-Trump's threats have no effect on the Iranian nation.

-The only way for America to find an exit window for itself is to gain Iran's trust.

-To America: If you choose to fight, we will fight. If you approach us with logic and reason, we will respond with logic and reason.

-We will not submit to any threats. Let them test our will once again so that we can teach them a bigger lesson.

Source: Iran Media

[chanakyaa]

So, what was the point of meeting in e-slum-a-bad? If Iran's position, on nooks, WAS and IS clear that they don't want to give up noo-clear material, what was the point of sending Vance there? A simple phone call would have been more productive. Was the plan to negotiate to resolve the strait situation or to ensure the Strait remains closed for a very long time? Cui bono?

[Amber G.]

So, what was the point of meeting in e-slum-a-bad? If Iran's position, on nooks, WAS and IS clear that they don't want to give up noo-clear material, what was the point of sending Vance there? A simple phone call would have been more productive. Was the plan to negotiate to resolve the strait situation or to ensure the Strait remains closed for a very long time? Cui bono?

Iran's position (official) has been consistent - see - "It already made that commitment in 2015 under the JCPOA—a deal Trump tore up." Iran is ready to commit to no nuclear weapons..(nuclear material for civil use only) and what it says (and many believe can be verified that it will stick to it by international community) that it give that guaranty if reasonable US (Instead of people like Vance - some body knowledgeable and reasonable) really wants...

Donald Trump’s own words don’t add up. In June 2025, and repeatedly afterward, he claimed U.S. strikes had “totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program—setting it back for *decades*. Yet now he warns that Iran is once again on the verge of nuclear capability and uses that as justification for escalation. If the program was truly “obliterated,” how does it reappear so quickly as an imminent threat?

Of course, he—and people like Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner—know little about enrichment and simply echo what Trump says, who in turn hails Munir as the “greatest Field Marshal.”

BTW: The treaty Trump tore it up (and did NOT get any better deal) said "i

ii. Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.'

And why did this trio go to Islamabad? Read his praise of Munir and the terrorist establishment here.

[Vayutuvan]

"Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat to Peter Magyar after "painful" election result, ending 16 years in power."

Guess what? Both HiC and Alex Soros (hubby of HiC's adoptive daughter Huma Abedin) posted Congratulatory messages on X to Peter Magyar.

[Manish_Sharma]

- orange monkey because of his known boorish behaviour and mad persoanlity is the perfect POTUS for this harakiri. he will take the fall. he is too nationalist american and is ok with it. he is already 80s in age . he will be protected . he may be impeached if all come together. This is just to protect america as country reputation- if OM is removed , -- all accolades-- america is a peace loving country- will do this that ---- blah blah ........ if he survives and lasts 4 years -- still america will celebrate-- we have removed one of the worst POTUSes in its history. we are back in business. All media will go to town with this. This is all virtue signalling and moral grandstanding.


---------------------------------------------

Net effect will be --


--- arap lands - saudi kuwait iran qatar bahrain etc oil producing capacity destroyed- will take years or decades to be rebuilt.
----safe heaven of UAE- dubai etc damage is collateral. This area is unique with minimal oil trade.

Only beneficial effect will be some reduction in moneies flowing to terr0r groups across the world and to isreal.
------------



Will have to later address from russian dragon perspxcectives --how they see it and their responses.

viewtopic.php?p=2678031#p2678031