West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

[drnayar]

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/2043356943801274534

[bala]

JPCOA deal with iran and usa during obama

Krisna saar,

This was a useless deal with Iran. They quietly did things in deep mountain hide-outs away from IAEA etc. Delivery mechanisms like missiles were worked upon since Obummer gifted some Billions in cash to Iran as part of the deal. Monitoring known nuclear centers is skirting the issue of nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons development.

1971 was brilliant military victory.

Interesting. Military victory was one thing but settlement of issues with Shittistan and now BD over-weighs such dubious victories. India had 90+K surrended POWs with around 5K as afsars from the military. We should have returned the soldiers but kept the afsars until Shittistan removed itself from POK and agreed to international borders. With BD we should have taken out the chicken neck area upto ganges river and chittgong should have been made a Indian naval port. No army is permitted for BD and India could have offered military cover in case of foreign attack. BD can have only police, no airforce, no army no navy. That would have been the real victory.

[bala]

https://x.com/ShivAroor/status/2043356943801274534

Don OM is keeping the media people entertained in knots and also driving the TDS people nuts, some are on this forum. US El presidente are hollywood cut-outs like the previous ones were, but this El Presidente is keeping everyone entertained while the US Deep State operatives execute the plan for world dominance. Hormuz under US control means all the wannabe powers in the world will have to bow down to Don OM for some munificence of the US. Interesting times are ahead.

[A_Gupta]

KootNiti:

"अनवरुद्धपूर्वां जलडमरूमध्यं राज-ऐच्छिक-युद्ध-हेतुना निरुध्यमानं रोधं रोद्धुं अन्य-रोधः। एषा हि कूटनीतिः॥"

Translation: "A blockade to block the blockade that's blocking the Strait that wasn't blocked before being blocked due to war of choice launched by a Raja. This is Strategy!'

+100

[A_Gupta]

@HouseForeign (US- House Foreign Affairs Committee -Dems )

JD Vance says the goal is getting Iran to commit to not build a nuclear weapon.

It already made that commitment in 2015 under the JCPOA—a deal Trump tore up.

1. To note, that under JCPOA, Iran shipped over 11 tons of low-enriched uranium out of the country.
2 Under JCPOA, Iran dismantled 13,000 centrifuges.
3. Iran was limited to 300 kg of uranium hexaflouride.
4. Iran was required to eliminate its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium.
5. All accounts were that Iran kept to the agreement until the US walked out of it.
6. The Obama Administration was unable to get the JCPOA ratified in the US Senate - they had lost control to the Republicans. So, in the US, it came into force as a Presidential Executive Order.
7. The Obama Administration also therefore was unable to keep the US side of the treaty of unfreezing Iranian assets.
8. And finally, Trump walked the US out of the JCPOA.

9. The February offer that Iran made just before the US pulled out of talks and started bombing Iran was to not stockpile enriched uranium, to down blend existing enriched uranium back to low levels and to have IAEA inspection.

10. But as a commentator said, having rejected the JCPOA, Trump and the Republicans need JCPOA++; and they need the agreement of the Netanyahu Israeli faction/lobby.

11. There is little reliable news about the negotiations in Islamabad. If we go by what Vali Nasr of John Hopkins University says - he may have an inside line to the Iranians - the denuclearization is still open for a deal -- however, the US cannot be trusted and must find a way to give iron-clad guarantees that it will not attack Iran again; and then Iran will be happy to discuss denuclearization.

12. What little news is there from Pakistan that might be vaguely reliable is that Kushner and Witcoff were jubilant that no deal was reached; the saving grace may be now it will be J.D. Vance rather than those two who will tell Trump what happened at then talks.

So, on Feb 27th, the US was on the verge of getting what it wanted regarding Iran's nuclear program; and also the Hormuz Strait was open. As far as I can tell, any deal with Iran was not acceptable to the pro-Israel lobby of the type headed by Kushner.

[ShauryaT]

@HouseForeign (US- House Foreign Affairs Committee -Dems )

1. To note, that under JCPOA, Iran shipped over 11 tons of low-enriched uranium out of the country.
2 Under JCPOA, Iran dismantled 13,000 centrifuges.
3. Iran was limited to 300 kg of uranium hexaflouride.
4. Iran was required to eliminate its stockpile of 20% enriched uranium.
5. All accounts were that Iran kept to the agreement until the US walked out of it.
6. The Obama Administration was unable to get the JCPOA ratified in the US Senate - they had lost control to the Republicans. So, in the US, it came into force as a Presidential Executive Order.
7. The Obama Administration also therefore was unable to keep the US side of the treaty of unfreezing Iranian assets.
8. And finally, Trump walked the US out of the JCPOA.

9. The February offer that Iran made just before the US pulled out of talks and started bombing Iran was to not stockpile enriched uranium, to down blend existing enriched uranium back to low levels and to have IAEA inspection.

10. But as a commentator said, having rejected the JCPOA, Trump and the Republicans need JCPOA++; and they need the agreement of the Netanyahu Israeli faction/lobby.

11. There is little reliable news about the negotiations in Islamabad. If we go by what Vali Nasr of John Hopkins University says - he may have an inside line to the Iranians - the denuclearization is still open for a deal -- however, the US cannot be trusted and must find a way to give iron-clad guarantees that it will not attack Iran again; and then Iran will be happy to discuss denuclearization.

12. What little news is there from Pakistan that might be vaguely reliable is that Kushner and Witcoff were jubilant that no deal was reached; the saving grace may be now it will be J.D. Vance rather than those two who will tell Trump what happened at then talks.

So, on Feb 27th, the US was on the verge of getting what it wanted regarding Iran's nuclear program; and also the Hormuz Strait was open. As far as I can tell, any deal with Iran was not acceptable to the pro-Israel lobby of the type headed by Kushner.

It is true that Iran did sign a JCPOA, which restricted Iranian enrichment (for 10 years) and indeed degraded their enriched stock piles. But the issue is not as clean as it looks.

While the deal capped the number of centrifuges (limiting them to the inefficient IR-1s), it permitted ongoing research and development on advanced centrifuges (IR-6s and IR-8s). This allowed Iran to refine the "software" of enrichment so that when the deal was breached (or expired), they could deploy much faster, high-bandwidth hardware.

The "Sunset" Clauses: The restrictions were essentially "Time-Bound Permissions." Iran knew that after 10–15 years, the caps on centrifuge counts and enrichment levels would automatically "deprecate," allowing them to legally return to an industrial-scale nuclear program.

As the Mossad heist of the Tehran warehouse revealed, they maintained the design specifications for a warhead.

The funds received under JCPOA were heavily tilted towards proxy warfare, the missile and drone programs and internal security instead of the domestic economy.

The intent to build a nuclear bomb never changed. They accepted a delay, upgraded the hardware. The JCPOA was a Patch, not a Fix. It gave the regime the "Grease" (cash) to survive a systemic crash and allowed them to keep their "R&D" active. This is why, the moment the deal was "teared up," they were able to jump from 3.67% enrichment to 60% HEU almost overnight—they already had the advanced code ready to run.

The Bottom Line: The JCPOA effectively funded the terror infrastructure that the U.S. is now having to "Hammer" at a much higher cost in 2026.

From an Israeli national security perspective, especially after Oct 7, they would be unwilling to live with such a threat, even if US does. India and S.Korea chose not to address these threats by their chief enemies at their inceptions, permanently hampering their securities.

[Amber G.]

@HouseForeign (US- House Foreign Affairs Committee -Dems )

1. To note, that under JCPOA, Iran shipped over 11 tons of low-enriched uranium out of the country.
2 Under JCPOA, Iran dismantled 13,000 centrifuges.
<snip>

So, on Feb 27th, the US was on the verge of getting what it wanted regarding Iran's nuclear program; and also the Hormuz Strait was open. As far as I can tell, any deal with Iran was not acceptable to the pro-Israel lobby of the type headed by Kushner.

Thank you. This is a really insightful breakdown of the situation. It’s a message that cuts through the noise.

To your point, adding e a few technical specifics from the original JCPOA—and the current "missed opportunities"—that highlight just how close a deal might have been from a physics and engineering standpoint:

• One of the most critical parts of the JCPOA was the agreement to redesign the Arak heavy water reactor. Originally, it was capable of producing enough weapons-grade plutonium for several bombs a year. Under the deal, it was to be converted to a 20 MW research reactor, with its original core removed and filled with concrete, making it physically impossible to produce plutonium. This essentially closed the "plutonium pathway" to a bomb entirely.

• There is a huge difference between Uranium Hexafluoride (UF_6) and Uranium Metal. Enrichment happens while the uranium is in a gas form ($UF_6$), but to make a weapon, you must convert it into a solid metal. The JCPOA (and the reported February offers) strictly limited Iran’s work on "uranium metallurgy." IOW this creates a "speed bump" that makes a sudden "breakout" much harder and more detectable.

• The reports coming out of Oman and Islamabad suggest Iran was indeed ready to down-blend its existing 60% enriched stockpiles back to low levels. As the physics shows, 99% of the work to get to weapons-grade is already done once you reach 60%. Offering to dilute that material is a massive technical concession that would have essentially reset the "breakout clock."

It seems clear that Iran was ready to bargain on these reasonable technical terms. However, as you noted, technical logic often fails when it meets the political requirements of figures like Netanyahu, or when negotiators like Witkoff and Kushner prioritize a "total capitulation" model over a functional non-proliferation one.

[bala]

The Bottom Line: The JCPOA effectively funded the terror infrastructure that the U.S. is now having to "Hammer" at a much higher cost in 2026.

From an Israeli national security perspective, especially after Oct 7, they would be unwilling to live with such a threat, even if US does. India and S.Korea chose not to address these threats by their chief enemies at their inceptions, permanently hampering their securities.

Exactly and well said. Israel wanted to take out Shittistan's nuclear stuff in the 80s but some Indian idiot squealed and the mission was cancelled. Had India allowed this then Shittistan would never have a chinese nuclear weapon.

JCPOA is a completely non-sensical agreement that Obummer thrust upon the world and conned everyone. To use a US euphemism, "Putting lipstick on a nuclear pig called Iran". Iran was hellbent on getting a nuclear device to blow up Israel and that will not happen.

Here is DJT reiterating the same point: No nuclear weapon for Iran. Brahman/Krishna bless him.

[Amber G.]

<snip>
..
It is true that Iran did sign a JCPOA, which restricted Iranian enrichment (for 10 years) and indeed degraded their enriched stock piles. But the issue is not as clean as it looks.

While the deal capped the number of centrifuges (limiting them to the inefficient IR-1s), it permitted ongoing research and development on advanced centrifuges (IR-6s and IR-8s). This allowed Iran to refine the "software" of enrichment so that when the deal was breached (or expired), they could deploy much faster, high-bandwidth hardware...
<skip>

Thanks ShauryaT, Good discussion and points. Allow me to add/clarify a few point..

A Physicist’s Reality Check on the "JCPOA was a Patch" Argument

I get the skepticism. When you’re dealing with a regime that has a history of "creative" disclosures, being wary is just good engineering. But if we’re going to talk about the physics of the deal, we need to separate political intent from atomic reality.

Here’s the blunt, my scientific take on why the "it was just a patch" argument misses the forest for the trees:

1. You Can’t Bomb Knowledge:

The Mossad heist found warhead designs. Okay... and? You can seize all the blueprints you want, but you cannot make the physics go away. You can’t "un-know" how to build a trigger, and you certainly can’t force a country to get rid of its PhDs and nuclear scientists.

In the world of non-proliferation, you don't try to delete the "code" (the knowledge); you control the "hardware" and the "RAM" (the centrifuges and the enriched uranium). The JCPOA didn't pretend Iran was naive; it just made sure they didn't have the physical materials to execute the "code."

2. The "Overnight" Jump Proves the Point:

The post mentions that Iran jumped to 60% enrichment "almost overnight" after the deal was torn up. Exactly. That isn't a failure of the JCPOA; it’s a confirmation of its effectiveness.

• While the deal was active, that 60% was physically impossible because the hardware was in crates and the UF_6 levels were capped at 3.67%.

• The moment the U.S. walked out, it gave them the green light to use the "advanced code" they’d had all along.

• Physics 101: It’s much harder to stop a car that’s already going 60 mph than one that’s locked in a garage with the spark plugs removed.

3. Arak: The Plutonium "Dead End"

• People forget the Arak reactor. This wasn't a "time-bound" fix. By filling that calandria with concrete and forcing a redesign to 20 MW using LEU fuel, Moniz and Salehi essentially killed the plutonium pathway. To go back, they’d have to build a brand-new reactor from scratch—which is a massive, multi-year construction project that’s impossible to hide from satellites. That’s not a "patch"; that’s a structural barrier.

4. The "Grease" vs. The "Hammer"
The argument that the deal funded "terror infrastructure" is a political one, not a scientific one. From a pure security physics perspective:

• With JCPOA: You have a 12-month "breakout" window.

• Without JCPOA: You have a 1-week "breakout" window.

If you’re the guy holding the "hammer," would you rather have a year to see a threat coming, or six days? In 2026, we’re finding out the hard way that "Maximum Pressure" just resulted in "Maximum Enrichment."

--
Netanyahu and the hawks might want a world where Iran forgets nuclear physics, but that world doesn't exist. You can't negotiate away a nation's brainpower. Unfortunately, we currently have the scientifically illiterate Witkoff and Kushner heading up negotiations on behalf of our "stable genius" President. They seem to think you can treat a nuclear program like a real estate foreclosure.

You can't "bluff" your way past isotopes. You can only negotiate the physical bottlenecks. The JCPOA was the best set of bottlenecks we ever had. If you tear down a dam because it "only" holds back the water for 15 years, don't be surprised when you get a flood in year six.

---

Quick question for the room: If the goal is truly "denuclearization," how do we plan to address the enriched stockpile we have right now in 2026 without a technical agreement to down-blend it back to 3.67%? Hammering the infrastructure doesn't make the gas disappear.

-- Amber G.

[chetak]

JPCOA deal with iran and usa during obama

Krisna saar,

This was a useless deal with Iran. They quietly did things in deep mountain hide-outs away from IAEA etc. Delivery mechanisms like missiles were worked upon since Obummer gifted some Billions in cash to Iran as part of the deal. Monitoring known nuclear centers is skirting the issue of nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons development.

1971 was brilliant military victory.

Interesting. Military victory was one thing but settlement of issues with Shittistan and now BD over-weighs such dubious victories. India had 90+K surrended POWs with around 5K as afsars from the military. We should have returned the soldiers but kept the afsars until Shittistan removed itself from POK and agreed to international borders. With BD we should have taken out the chicken neck area upto ganges river and chittgong should have been made a Indian naval port. No army is permitted for BD and India could have offered military cover in case of foreign attack. BD can have only police, no airforce, no army no navy. That would have been the real victory.

bala saar,


the persians have always been devious. They still have grandiose geopolitical dreams, much like the idiot turks do. They don't understand that the world will not tolerate the mullahs controlling weapons of mass destruction

It's way past the point where what seems right for the mullahs is not something that sounds right with the rest of the world

these are ego driven megalomaniacs who are utterly unpredictable and can precipitate a global crisis at the drop of a hat, especially when they kill, maim, and butcher their own people, hang them from cranes in the public square

when mullah after mad mullah screams from every vantage point, that world domination is their goal, it's time we listened and organized a collective pest control effort to eliminate these cockroaches

It would be catastrophic to assume that eyeraan would not have quietly salted away enough weapons grade fissile material to build some warheads quickly enough. They already have the battle tested delivery system(s) to send the warhead to any address they choose in the gelf region

They could already have shipped such fissile material to either cheen or russia for safe keeping

Since the post WWII days, the amrikis, their politicos, and their deep state have consistently proved that they are not the sole repository of geopolitical "brains"

Every problem in the world today is because the amrikis did not know how to finish the jobs they had taken up. They have finally reached a state where they seem to have even lost the will to fight, as woke and LGBTQ have firmly taken over their militaries and many other vital state institutions

their actions have consistently been driven by greed for resources, and the insatiable hunger for power that dominates all other countries.

If this the mai baap that many countries are hoping to align with....

by and large, their presidents and their power entourages have their pants on if they are fighting wars, if not, they don't have their pants on, as lewenski and epstein would attest

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile: This evening, the president posted this, literally presenting himself as Jesus. He’s not doing anything to stave off the anti-Christ allegations. Not making it up, this is real, and a big story here (in US)


(Wonder he is so fan of Munir /Terroristan .may be they can influence him to pose himself as ...)


Also he does not like the Pope:

[Amber G.]

Also! Wow! This person's ego has no shame!

[A_Gupta]

Once the knowledge of how to make a nuclear weapon is acquired, it cannot be made to evaporate just like that. On one day Trump is confident that the June 2025 bombing has obliterated the necessary infrastructure and DNI Tulsi Gabbar testifies to Congress that US intelligence has not detected any attempt to reconstitute the program, and on the next day Trump avers that Iran was weeks from making a bomb, that was the imminent threat. In his shriveled mind he probably realizes that he cannot make the knowledge vanish.

A solution like make West Asia a nuclear-free zone is also politically impossible.

[SRajesh]

OM is the Organ Grinder or is he the Proverbial 'You Know what"!!
Me Personally think OM is being used.
But this maybe with his complete knowledge of the fact and in fact giving covering fire for the DS or NeoCon or whatever group you want to label them!!
Overall I feel this Presidency a dangerous one for us and the Eurotrash but more us!!
Our dream of 10 trillion is in serious trouble.
BRICS gone, MEC done and dusted, QUAD in threos of death (a more with me or against me )
So another two decades of this run
In this chaos around ME, EU and Asain gaints struggling with oil, the only calmer zone is : North America
Thye have the oil, the military heft, MIC and political will to sell whatever junk they want and put restrictions of what other will sell them in return.
Hmm
I dont know what our plans need to be .
US: seem to be following Commenterri de Bello Gallico : Ist BC century :Campaign, tactics, troop movements, sieges etc.
China: Sun Tzu: 5th Centruy BC: Avoiding conflict, psychological, adaptability, leadership yada yada, how to win without conflict
But we should : Kootaneti: 4th Century: More Prgmatic and Ruthless: economics, espionage, diplomacy, law, war. Running a country, Especially how to survive in a dangerous world.

[drnayar]

One thinks el presidente has all signs of frontotemporal dementia.

[srin]

Trump has amplified the existing system of perverse incentives towards nuclearization.

If you are a country that doesn't have nukes and not obedient to prevailing IS regime's wishes, they will bomb you. Iraq, Iran, Venezuela are the examples that come to my mind.

OTOH, if you have nukes, you are immune to invasion (they will still try flower revolution methods). NK figured this out.

The Saudis and Emiratis will be wondering when the "burra nazar" of the US will fall on them and they get onto the sh!t list. I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't clandestinely trying to get nukes. There's always bikaristan or NK in desperate need for cash.

[Cyrano]

Yes Chetak hi, I was referring to the heart beat thingy

[Anoop]

https://open.substack.com/pub/radmsudhi ... d&r=72cns1

Fascinating piece by R. Adm Pillai (Retd) that traces the historical and legal context of blockade. Of immediate concern to India:

The ceasefire technically expires on 22 April. Three questions require resolution before that deadline.

First, can India publicly affirm the non-suspension of transit passage at Hormuz and oppose both Iran’s closure and the U.S. blockade on a single consistent legal basis? The answer should be yes, and the framing is available without diplomatic aggression toward Washington. India is not accusing the United States of aggression; it is applying the same legal rule — UNCLOS Article 44, customary straits law, the Corfu Channel principle — to both parties. Delhi can acknowledge the legitimate operational objective of restoring free transit while insisting that interdiction of neutral shipping exceeds what international law permits for a belligerent power at an international strait. This is legal precision, not false equivalence.

Second, what are the Indian Navy’s rules of engagement if U.S. forces attempt to board an Indian-flagged vessel operating under Urja Suraksha escort? This question should already have been thought through, and India should have an answer ready. If it does not, the next ten days are the window to formulate one. The response does not need to be confrontational — India can invoke flag-state rights, demand the legal basis for any boarding, and escalate through diplomatic channels. But improvised responses to a boarding in contested waters, with active mines, drones, and coastal missile batteries in range, are how incidents become crises.

Third, is Delhi prepared to articulate publicly that the rules-based maritime order it claims to champion constitutes binding legal obligations rather than a menu from which great powers select according to the alignment of their interests? The Hormuz crisis of 2026 is not the first test of this proposition. Russian actions in the Black Sea and Kerch Strait tested it too — that episode, and what it foreshadows for Malacca, is examined in another companion piece to this maritime law series, The Commons That Never Were. But Hormuz is the most visible, the most consequential for India’s direct energy security, and the one in which India has the largest immediate material stake. Strategic ambiguity has costs. At Hormuz in April 2026, those costs are being loaded onto Indian tankers.

Two wrongs at a chokepoint carrying a fifth of the world’s oil do not produce one legal right. They produce a maritime environment where the strongest boarding officer determines who moves.

[SRajesh]

A question:
Currently in the ME, who has the best mine sweeping capabilities.
How many of US ships currently deployed have that capability.
I dont know how many of GCC coubtries have that kind of capability.
We do have. Not sure how many Jihadi Navy possess.
Will US request like minded or even QUAD for this clearance ops??
But QUAD deployment would ( I know that its not a military alliance, but given that this is an energy issue) invite Eyeranian attacks.
Brithits wont send any and ditto with EUtards!!

[rajkumar]

JPCOA deal with iran and usa during obama

Krisna saar,

This was a useless deal with Iran. They quietly did things in deep mountain hide-outs away from IAEA etc. Delivery mechanisms like missiles were worked upon since Obummer gifted some Billions in cash to Iran as part of the deal. Monitoring known nuclear centers is skirting the issue of nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons development.

Then care to explain why every single person responsible for monitoring JPOCA testified before the US Senate that Iran was following the agreement

[Manish_Sharma]

OM is the Organ Grinder or is he the Proverbial 'You Know what"!!
Me Personally think OM is being used.
But this maybe with his complete knowledge of the fact and in fact giving covering fire for the DS or NeoCon or whatever group you want to label them!!
Overall I feel this Presidency a dangerous one for us and the Eurotrash but more us!!

You're right!
It's all deliberate, as Krisna saar has put succinctly :

orange monkey because of his known boorish behaviour and mad persoanlity is the perfect POTUS for this harakiri. he will take the fall. he is too nationalist american and is ok with it. he is already 80s in age . he will be protected . he may be impeached if all come together. This is just to protect america as country reputation- if OM is removed , -- all accolades-- america is a peace loving country- will do this that ---- blah blah ........ if he survives and lasts 4 years -- still america will celebrate-- we have removed one of the worst POTUSes in its history. we are back in business. All media will go to town with this. This is all virtue signalling and moral grandstanding.

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/report/as-i ... 260413.htm
As Iran Tensions Surge, India Leans On UAE
Archis Mohan, April 13, 2026
For India, much is at stake: Crucial energy supplies traversing the Strait of Hormuz, the fate of its 10 million citizens living and working in West Asia -- who send generous remittances home -- and its major trade links with the region.
The collapse of the US-Iran talks in Islamabad on Sunday vindicated South Block's assessment that Pakistan, run by military and civilian leadership utterly pliant to Washington, was unlikely to be a credible mediator that Tehran could trust.
However, New Delhi, closely monitoring developments in West Asia, remained optimistic that future rounds of parleys between Iran and the US, including backchannel talks, during the tenuous fortnight-long ceasefire would yield peace in the region.
For India, much is at stake: Crucial energy supplies traversing the Strait of Hormuz, the fate of its 10 million citizens living and working in West Asia -- who send generous remittances home -- and its major trade links with the region.
India's Engagement in West Asia
On Sunday, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar met United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and conveyed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's message and India's appreciation for the manner in which the 'UAE looked after' the 3.5 million-strong Indian community during the 'difficult period' of the 42-day conflict.
Jaishankar sought to understand the UAE's perspective on the conflict and discussed other aspects of India-UAE ties, including energy cooperation.
'Obviously, India has a major stake and a big interest in the stability and security of this region. I am pleased to have an opportunity to come here, sit down directly, express our interests, and share the feedback of the Indian community,' Jaishankar told a news agency in Dubai after his meetings with the Emirati leadership.
Jaishankar was on a two-day visit to the UAE, during which he also met Deputy PM and Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Dubai Crown Prince Hamdan bin Mohammed.
The UAE foreign minister discussed with Jaishankar the 'repercussions of the brutal and terrorist Iranian missile attacks that targeted' the UAE.
The UAE has emerged as India's closest partner in the region over the past decade, and Jaishankar's visit underscored New Delhi's view that 'friends should hold each other's hand' during difficult times.
New Delhi has also remained engaged with Tehran. On Saturday, Shipping Minister Sarbananda Sonowal announced that the Indian-flagged vessel Jag Vikram, with 24 Indian crew members and carrying 20,412 million tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas, successfully sailed out of the Persian Gulf region on April 11 and is expected to reach an Indian port on April 15.
India also sent a second shipment of medical supplies to Iran, the Iranian embassy in New Delhi said.
Pakistan's Financial Struggles
Meanwhile, Pakistan, which has teetered on the brink of bankruptcy and holds the dubious record of receiving International Monetary Fund assistance 25 times, is set to receive $5 billion in financial support from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, according to a Dawn report citing sources in Pakistan's finance ministry.
The development coincided with Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb's visit to Washington for the IMF-World Bank spring meetings.
Recently, the UAE asked Islamabad to repay the $3.5 billion it owes in loans. The IMF has stipulated that Pakistan's three key bilateral creditors -- Saudi Arabia, China, and the UAE -- must maintain their cash deposits with the country until the completion of the ongoing three-year programme.
Dawn reported that Qatar is likely to replace the UAE as one of Pakistan's creditors. Pakistan has said it will repay $3.5 billion to the UAE by the end of April, a liability rolled over since 2018.
......
Gautam

[g.sarkar]

https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/i ... 260413.htm
Iran War: 'US Doesn't Depend On Strait of Hormuz For Oil'
ARCHANA MASIH, April 13, 2026
'Neither do the Israelis. The two attacking parties have very little economic interest in Hormuz.'
"Most Gulf countries would realise that American defences are mainly for Israel, not for them. The Gulf countries would want their business models to come back to life and create certainty again," says Ambassador Gurjit Singh, India's former envoy to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia and ASEAN.
"That certainty cannot come from the Abraham Accords or with the US. It has to come with their relationship with Iran," Ambassador Singh tells Rediff's Archana Masih in the concluding part of the interview on the Iran war.
Would it be fair to say that the single most positive development that will have far reaching global impact will be the opening of the Strait of Hormuz that has held the world in panic?
Certainly opening of the Strait of Hormuz is critical for global energy supply chains.
It is important to note that the Americans don't depend on the Strait of Hormuz for oil supplies. Neither do the Israelis. The two attacking parties have very little economic interest in Hormuz.
However, the rest of the world like Europe, Japan, countries like ours -- have huge interests in Hormuz. The war has caused great sufferance and disruptions there's strong global pressure to open the Strait.
There's also been a shift in Iran's stance. Earlier, they said that America should pay for the reconstruction of Iran. But now they are saying they will charge every ship passing Hormuz -- 2 million dollars per ship -- and share it with Oman. They want to fund reconstruction that way instead of relying on American reparations.
But that creates another imbalance. Since US ships don't use the Hormuz, they will avoid the cost altogether. Meanwhile, the rest of us who rely on that route would effectively be paying for Iranian reconstruction when we have not caused the destruction.
What should India be more cautious about China's quiet game during this conflict?
We should be cautious about China gaining greater influence in this region. They have been working in the past with Saudi Arabia and UAE.
China has been trying to play a bigger role in this region. But they also did not take sides because they were drawing oil from Iran and also from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
They did not come out with pro-Iranian statements, but behind the scenes, they were helping Iran.
And now, they are trying to use Pakistan. The Chinese would want reduced American influence, which will give them an opportunity to expand theirs.
What will the reconstruction of Iran entail?
The reconstruction will be very expensive. They will need a lot of help and one wonders where will this help come from?
China and Russia do not have the wherewithal right now neither do other countries.
They would all be interested in the contracts to rebuild Iran, but not the money to rebuild Iran.
Therefore, they (Iran) are trying to get the money from the Strait of Hormuz.
......
Gautam

[chetak]

Gautam saar,


The clown who wrote the above missed one vital point

The gelf states, by and large, need India's supply chains as a staunch, reliable and trustworthy source of food grains and other agri products to sustain themselves, without any backchat about politics whatever.

India has been that partner for several hundreds of years but now her robust grain production, as well as, the huge surpluses held in storage is the comfort that they seek during these rough times

[g.sarkar]

https://sundayguardianlive.com/world/la ... ke-183798/
Latest War News: US Begins Blockade Targeting Iran-Linked Ships Near Strait of Hormuz After Talks Collapse, Oil Prices Surge & Global Tensions Spike
US begins blockade targeting Iran-linked ships near Strait of Hormuz after talks fail, triggering oil price surge and raising fears of global conflict and supply disruption.
Dikshant Sharma, April 13, 2026
The United States has begun enforcing a naval blockade targeting maritime traffic linked to Iran in and around the Strait of Hormuz, marking a major escalation in the ongoing conflict with Tehran. The move follows the collapse of diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending weeks of hostilities between the two countries.
According to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the blockade came into force on April 13 and applies to all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports across the Gulf region. However, U.S. officials clarified that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz to non-Iranian destinations will still be allowed to pass.
Latest War News: What the Blockade Covers — And What It Doesn’t
While widely described as a “Strait of Hormuz blockade,” the operation is more narrowly focused on cutting off Iran’s maritime trade rather than fully shutting down the strategic waterway.
– Ships linked to Iranian ports may be intercepted, diverted, or seized.
– Neutral vessels crossing the Strait without Iranian destination are permitted.
– Humanitarian cargo is allowed but subject to inspection.
This selective enforcement aims to pressure Iran economically by disrupting its oil and gas exports, a key pillar of its economy.
Latest War News: Oil Prices Surge, Global Markets React
The announcement has already sent shockwaves through global markets. Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions, given that roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Analysts warn that prolonged disruption could fuel inflation, strain global supply chains, and increase energy costs worldwide.
......
Gautam

[g.sarkar]

Gautam saar,
The clown who wrote the above missed one vital point
The gelf states, by and large, need India's supply chains as a staunch, reliable and trustworthy source of food grains and other agri products to sustain themselves, without any backchat about politics whatever.
India has been that partner for several hundreds of years but now her robust grain production, as well as, the huge surpluses held in storage is the comfort that they seek during these rough times

Boss,
You are right. India will export food, other products and manpower to the Middle East, who produce nothing other than oil. That will happen after this war is over. But the current problem is that India, along with other nations (Europe, China etc.) are not able to stop this war that is against their basic interests. I hope that the military alliance between Europe and the US, that existed from WWI, will now end quietly. Over here, I can already feel the inflation in the US, as every thing is transported by road and the price of petrol has gone up tremendously. As someone who lives off a fixed pension, I can see my earnings being eroded quickly. I can imagine what the situation is in other countries that must import oil to survive.
Gautam

[A_Gupta]

4. Major Goods Exports by Country (2025–2026 Trends)

Country Primary Goods Exports
Saudi Arabia Crude oil, refined petroleum, plastics (polymers), and industrial chemicals.
UAE Crude oil, gold, refined petroleum, broadcast equipment (re-exports), and aluminum.
Qatar Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), helium, crude oil, and fertilizers.
Kuwait Crude oil, refined petroleum, and organic chemicals.
Oman Crude oil, petroleum gas, iron ore, and fertilizers.
Bahrain Refined petroleum, raw aluminum, and iron ore.

[Vayutuvan]

...
The intent to build a nuclear bomb never changed. They accepted a delay, upgraded the hardware. The JCPOA was a Patch, not a Fix. It gave the regime the "Grease" (cash) to survive a systemic crash and allowed them to keep their "R&D" active. This is why, the moment the deal was "teared up," they were able to jump from 3.67% enrichment to 60% HEU almost overnight—they already had the advanced code ready to run.
...
The Bottom Line: The JCPOA effectively funded the terror infrastructure that the U.S. is now having to "Hammer" at a much higher cost in 2026.
...

Well said. Obama was desperate to have a deal with Iran. How else could he have justified his getting a Nobel, sight unseen?

WSJ Editorial Opinion wrote that (I am paraphrasing) "When Iranian Foreign (?) minister walked out of the room, Kerry ran after him and pleaded him to come back to the table".

[Amber G.]

The US president is praising Allah and Iran is defending the Pope, welcome to 2026!

[Amber G.]

One thinks el presidente has all signs of frontotemporal dementia.

OTOH He claims He is a doctor (Not kidding.. please see this clip -- can't even makes such things up -
"Trump says his AI picture was not he as Jesus Christ but as a doctor since 'he makes people better'."
"
As cardiologist :""I found 3 blockages in your heart's arteries. My plan is to create 3 more blockages to treat the exisiting blockages."

[drnayar]

One thinks el presidente has all signs of frontotemporal dementia.

OTOH He claims He is a doctor (Not kidding.. please see this clip -- can't even makes such things up -
"Trump says his AI picture was not he as Jesus Christ but as a doctor since 'he makes people better'."
"
As cardiologist :""I found 3 blockages in your heart's arteries. My plan is to create 3 more blockages to treat the exisiting blockages."
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HFy_8fmbMAA ... me=360x360[/img

Who knew watching the news can be so entertaining but seriously ., if only lives were not at stake !

[Amber G.]

Not only this type of views are common in Munir and Trump's echo system, there are a few of posts like these in this dhaga too..

The Hormuz strait has gone to the US ..
Those who believe otherwise can day dream as much as they want. Iran will have to give up its nuke ambition.

A. different perspective -- on "The Hormuz strait has gone to the US ."

Iran Ambassador @Iran_in_India

says no toll charged on Indian vessels thru Hormuz; Points to "good relations" between the 2 countries

[Amber G.]

नशे की रात ढल गयी, अब खुमार ना रहा
ज़िंदगी हमें तेरा, ऐतबार ना रहा, ऐतबार ना रहा.
दोस्त दोस्त ना रहा, प्यार प्यार ना रहा
ज़िंदगी हमें तेरा , ऐतबार ना रहा, ऐतबार ना रहा

NATO allies refuse to join Trump's Iranian port blockade

[Amber G.]

India plays an important role in supporting global efforts and ensuring the continued openness of vital maritime corridors, including the Strait of Hormuz says UAE minister:

Link:UAE minister calls for open Strait of Hormuz, hails India ties amid West Asia conflict

UAE Minister of State Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan Al Nahyan says EAM Jaishankar's visit to Abu Dabhi "demonstrates the importance of close coordination at a time of heightened tensions".- in an interview.

[Amber G.]

India, France discussed the "ways and means of restoring freedom of navigation" in the Strait of Hormuz.
War in Ukraine, doubling trade discussed during India France Foreign Secretary level talks:

[Amber G.]

For reference:
13th April (Day 45)
-Trump's blockade comes into force
-Trump vs Pope as latter slams him
-Iran Envoy in Delhi: No toll on Indian vessels in Hormuz
-Delhi exhibition pictures by Minab students
-EAM Jaishankar speaks to Kuwait, Singapore FM
-Pak FM speaks to Chinese FM, UK FS
-3rd consignment of humanitarian support of 20 Tonns being sent from India to Iran via Mahaan air. The humanitarian aide was bought by donations from India.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile another feather in Trump's cap - JD Vance went to Islamabad just after he campaigned (not making it up) for Orban in Hungary .. Breaking news:

"Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat to Peter Magyar after "painful" election result, ending 16 years in power."

Narendra Modi X:

Translated from Hungarian
I wholeheartedly congratulate Mr. Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party on their resounding election victory. India and Hungary share a friendship rooted in deep historical ties, shared values, and enduring mutual respect. I look forward to our joint efforts, in which we will further strengthen our bilateral cooperation and tap into the opportunities of the India-EU strategic partnership for the prosperity and well-being of our peoples.

[Vayutuvan]

Now, now, let us not equate Alex Soros + HiC to PM Modi, who is a statesman.

[Amber G.]

Krisna saar,

This was a useless deal with Iran. They quietly did things in deep mountain hide-outs away from IAEA etc. Delivery mechanisms like missiles were worked upon since Obummer gifted some Billions in cash to Iran as part of the deal. Monitoring known nuclear centers is skirting the issue of nuclear proliferation and nuclear weapons development.

Then care to explain why every single person responsible for monitoring JPOCA testified before the US Senate that Iran was following the agreement

@Rajkumar:

FWIW, while this likely won’t satisfy the "true believers" or the Trump-bhakts here—and ignoring the habitual trolling from the usual few—the following points address why monitoring officials stood by the agreement

Official and Scientific Validation: Many credible figures, including then- (Trump appointed) DNI Tulsi Gabbard and the nuclear scientists directly responsible for monitoring the JCPOA, testified clearly to the US Senate that Iran was following the technical requirements of the deal.

Rhetoric vs. Reality: Claims regarding "Obummer" or secret "deep mountain hide-outs" are old techniques designed to sway those already convinced of a conspiracy. From a technical standpoint, the deal's physical constraints—such as limiting Uranium Hexafluoride UF_6 and concrete-plugging the Arak reactor—created high-visibility bottlenecks that made any actual "breakout" easily detectable by monitors.

[Amber G.]

Pointing out the obvious (Context in this thread):

From what reports I have seen about fHungarian parliamentary elections, there is no recored of Donald Trump has congratulated Péter Magyar.While Viktor Orbán (a close ally of Trump) personally called Magyar to concede and congratulate him, the reaction from the Trump administration has been described by international media as a "setback" and a "shockwave" through his political circles.

Key Context: Péter Magyar's Tisza Party won a landslide victory, securing a two-thirds supermajority and ending Orbán’s 16-year rule.Trump's Stance: Throughout the campaign, Trump and J.D. Vance openly backed Orbán. Magyar’s win is widely viewed by analysts as a loss for the global far-right movements aligned with the current U.S. administration.

International Reactions: While European leaders celebrated the win as a victory for liberal democracy and the EU, and Modiji Tseet I posted, formal outreach from the White House to Magyar has not been publicized.

Meanwhile another feather in Trump's cap - JD Vance went to Islamabad just after he campaigned (not making it up) for Orban in Hungary .. Breaking news:

"Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán concedes defeat to Peter Magyar after "painful" election result, ending 16 years in power."

Narendra Modi X:

Translated from Hungarian
I wholeheartedly congratulate Mr. Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party on their resounding election victory. India and Hungary share a friendship rooted in deep historical ties, shared values, and enduring mutual respect. I look forward to our joint efforts, in which we will further strengthen our bilateral cooperation and tap into the opportunities of the India-EU strategic partnership for the prosperity and well-being of our peoples.