West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Iran Warns To Invade Dubai If Trump Launches Ground Attack: Reports | Firstpost Live
Reports claim that Iran has issued a sharp warning, saying the UAE and Bahrain could face attacks if the US launches a ground invasion. Tensions are rising despite a ceasefire, with US naval blockades on the Strait of Hormuz disrupting. Iran has also laid out four key red lines, including control over Hormuz and a strong response to any ground attack. With global oil supplies at stake and diplomacy stalling, the risk of a wider regional war continues to grow.
Reports claim that Iran has issued a sharp warning, saying the UAE and Bahrain could face attacks if the US launches a ground invasion. Tensions are rising despite a ceasefire, with US naval blockades on the Strait of Hormuz disrupting. Iran has also laid out four key red lines, including control over Hormuz and a strong response to any ground attack. With global oil supplies at stake and diplomacy stalling, the risk of a wider regional war continues to grow.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
https://x.com/i/status/2047927211068436674
@Sputnik_India
Full blockade of the Strait of Hormuz might choke India?
Not so fast. India has a powerful ace up its sleeve: the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor.
This ambitious sea route is now one of the top strategic priorities for both Russia and India. It’s designed to slash dependence on traditional chokepoints and unlock direct, reliable trade between the two nations.
The corridor will boost joint projects in Russia’s Far East while dramatically expanding trade in crude oil, metals, machinery and equipment.
Signed back in September 2019 at the Eastern Economic Forum, the route stretches over 10,000 kilometres. It officially began operations in early 2024 and is already changing the game.
While the world watches tensions in the Middle East, India and Russia have built a vital alternative that keeps energy and goods flowing no matter what happens in Hormuz.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=18051

@Sputnik_India
Not so fast. India has a powerful ace up its sleeve: the Chennai-Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor.
This ambitious sea route is now one of the top strategic priorities for both Russia and India. It’s designed to slash dependence on traditional chokepoints and unlock direct, reliable trade between the two nations.
The corridor will boost joint projects in Russia’s Far East while dramatically expanding trade in crude oil, metals, machinery and equipment.
Signed back in September 2019 at the Eastern Economic Forum, the route stretches over 10,000 kilometres. It officially began operations in early 2024 and is already changing the game.
While the world watches tensions in the Middle East, India and Russia have built a vital alternative that keeps energy and goods flowing no matter what happens in Hormuz.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=18051

Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
President Trump just said he has unilaterally cancelled Witkoff and Kushner’s trip to Pakistan to meet with the Iranians.
"I've told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, 'Nope, you're not making an 18 hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you're not going to be making any more 18 hour flights to sit around talking about nothing

"I've told my people a little while ago they were getting ready to leave, and I said, 'Nope, you're not making an 18 hour flight to go there. We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you're not going to be making any more 18 hour flights to sit around talking about nothing
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
US should be heartened by the fact that Iran continues to engage with its proxy even after obvious tells
Iran cannot afford offering more concessions to the US after the loss of 3000+ lives and decimation of its old leadership.
US cannot afford not getting substantially more than the 2015 JCOPA.
A lose-lose situation for both at this point.
- Pak PM tweet
- Trump's dismissal of 10-point Iranian agenda for the first round as incorrect
- more recently when Aragchi offered to open the SOH in very loose language, which was probably engineered by Pakistan on the basis (if not an assurance to Iran) that it would evoke a conciliatory response regarding the blockade from the US.
Iran cannot afford offering more concessions to the US after the loss of 3000+ lives and decimation of its old leadership.
US cannot afford not getting substantially more than the 2015 JCOPA.
A lose-lose situation for both at this point.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
This is the News Article on Angry Pakistani Shias that Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir got deleted from the Pakistani version of The New York Times yesterday..

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Manish_Sharma
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2048 ... 21740?s=20
Take a close look at this.
NBC News published a major investigation this afternoon. Six reporters. Six named sources inside the US government. The story breaks open something the Trump administration has been hiding for two months.
The damage Iran did to American military bases in the opening phase of the war is far worse than the Pentagon has admitted.
Repairs will cost billions of dollars.
Here is what NBC found.
Iran hit American bases across seven Middle East countries. Iranian missiles and drones struck warehouses, command headquarters, aircraft hangars, satellite communications, runways, high-end radar systems, and dozens of American aircraft.
In one strike at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Iran destroyed an E-3 Sentry. That is a flying command and control plane. It is one of the most important aircraft in the American military for tracking enemy threats. The tail was blown off. The plane is on the ground in pieces.
In the opening days of the war, an Iranian F-5 fighter jet broke through American air defenses and bombed Camp Buehring in Kuwait. Two US officials told NBC this is the first time an enemy fixed-wing aircraft has hit an American military base in years.
A single Iranian jet got past American air defenses and dropped bombs on an American base.
The Pentagon has not publicly acknowledged that.
Here is what the administration has said publicly during this same time.
President Trump told Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business this month that the United States has "totally beaten" Iran "militarily."
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the operation "the most lethal, most complex, and most-precision aerial operation in history."
Yesterday in the Oval Office, the President told reporters: "It's not a big war for us, but it's a war."
Now here is the part I want you to sit with.
Six American government sources just told NBC News that the war damage is far worse than the President has admitted. Damage that will cost billions to repair. A flying radar plane destroyed. A fighter jet getting through American air defenses. Strikes across seven countries.
For two months, the public was told the operation was a clean victory.
For two months, the families of US service members were told everything was under control.
For two months, the President called this "not a big war."
Tonight at the Washington Hilton, that same President will sit through the White House Correspondents' Dinner. The Wall Street Journal will receive the Katherine Graham Award for breaking news the administration tried to suppress. The President will leave before the award is presented.
Six NBC reporters and six government sources just made it harder for him to leave the rest of the story buried.
This is why we have a free press.
This is why those 250 journalists signed a petition this week.
This is why anonymous sources still talk.
The President says it is not a big war.
The Pentagon says repairs will cost billions.
One of them is lying.
Never stop connecting the dots.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Ukraine (and Europe) is paying the expenses of the Russia war.
Saudi, UAE will pay the expenses of the Eyeran war.
Saudi, UAE will pay the expenses of the Eyeran war.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Josh Marshall of talkingpointsmemo.com opines thus:
As the Iran war drags on, I wanted to share some thoughts on the proper context in which to see the conflict. Donald Trump lost this war in its very first days. Everything that has happened in recent weeks — the threats, the negotiations, the live-on-social-media breakdowns — has simply been a matter of trying to get free of that fact. This isn’t a political attack. It’s simply an accurate appraisal of what we all see. More importantly, it is the only way to understand what is happening now. Everything that’s happening today and for weeks has been focused on breaking Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz, something it didn’t have before the war started. That’s the definition of failure: fighting a war and continuing a war to clean up the mess the war of choice actually created. By this measure, the best way to achieve what is now the central war aim — opening the Strait — would have been simply not to start the war in the first place.
You can see the reality of the power balance in the visible fact that Trump wants negotiations and an end to the conflict more than Iran does. He keeps asking for them or demanding them. Iran holds back. They have the upper hand, notwithstanding all the vast damage to infrastructure, civilian and military, Iran has suffered.
It all comes back to the foundational fact that Trump lost control of the situation and lost the conflict itself in the first days. Everything since has simply been an effort to ignore or bluster through or deny that fact. Trump wants out of the war so he’s not willing to use the level of force that might prevail over the Iranian blockade. The Iranian leadership sees that just as clearly as everyone else. And as he waits he and the global economy sustain damage. He’s stuck and since he won’t recognize that fact the conflict and the massive damage to the global economy continues, even if the scale of the fighting, for the moment, doesn’t.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Using this as a basis to counter all the claptrap about US involement in Iran war. The basics for Iran are the China factor while Ukraine was about the Russia factor. In the US, obumber & bidenwa were sold out to the Chinese similar to billy boy during Pak nuclearization. The Baksheesh trail is huge by the Chinese to the Dems. Iran is another sinister China play to nuclearize Iran and thereby threaten the GCC players which has now been halted by DJT. These over-arching political considerations outweighs all other tawdry details of who won or lost including severe TDS syndrome in this forum. GCC nations are on the hook to pay for Iran war like they did for Saddam's war with the US in 90s by Bush Sr.
Currently Iran has lost its edge in most domains - leadership devastated and becomes chaotic. Iran is reeling in economic chaos, its air force and navy have been wiped off. Most of Iran's missile, drone manufacturing have been bombed out. China and Russia are providing targeting information to the Iranians. Hormuz strait control is gone and the US has control on who goes in and out. The devastation is complete and thorough but there are hold outs in pockets here and there. The pukes are looking silly with their double crossing of all parties.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
The damage the US-Israel bombings caused to Iran was estimated to be at least USD 300 billion. The continuing blockade is also costing Iran dearly.Manish_Sharma wrote: ↑26 Apr 2026 10:51 https://x.com/allenanalysis/status/2048 ... 21740?s=20
The damage Iran did to American military bases in the opening phase of the war is far worse than the Pentagon has admitted.
...
The Pentagon says repairs will cost billions.
...
As for "cost billions" - phaw - DoW talks in terms of hundreds of billions, if not a trillion or two. Billions are peanuts.
There is news that Lufthansa is cancelling upwards of 20K flights due to mounting losses. That is not the case with US-based airlines. Some will go under, but Americans have to travel between coasts via Chicago or NYC-Florida via DC or Seattle-San Diego via San Jose.
The GOP will "borrow and spend". If Dems were to come back, which is AS, they will "tax and spend".
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Trump recently said the federal government cannot afford to fund child care. That is $30 billion per year, that goes into subsidies for daycare and such.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Also this 'stable genius': (xpost) can not afford ..
This does not making America great again.:
News from Science: U.S. President Donald Trump has fired all 24 members of the National Science Board, the body that oversees the National Science Foundation. Many science advocates see it as the latest step by his administration to erode—some would say destroy—the independence of the 76-year-old research agency.
This does not making America great again.:
News from Science: U.S. President Donald Trump has fired all 24 members of the National Science Board, the body that oversees the National Science Foundation. Many science advocates see it as the latest step by his administration to erode—some would say destroy—the independence of the 76-year-old research agency.
Last edited by Amber G. on 28 Apr 2026 02:32, edited 1 time in total.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Italy's PM Meloni says, "Italy is not taking part and does not intend to take part in US-Israeli-Iran war."
She also calls the war on Iran ILLEGAL--"unilateral interventions conducted outside the perimeter of international law".
She also calls the war on Iran ILLEGAL--"unilateral interventions conducted outside the perimeter of international law".
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Pakistan reportedly has opened an overland transit corridor to Iran -- goods from third countries can land at Karachi or Gwadar ports and from there go over land to Iran via routes through Balochistan.
What is the game Pakistan is playing, and is it with the consent of Massa?
What is the game Pakistan is playing, and is it with the consent of Massa?
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
I am not buying the fact that the Hormuz Strait is controlled by the USN. The strait is still closed to most traffic. All the USN is trying to do right now is shut down the Iranian shadow traffic that is supplying China with some crude. The hope here is that Iran collapses economically and surrenders to the US demands. In the meantime, gas prices in the US are 30 to 40% higher, and the economic impact will persist for some time. No matter what people say that will have a political impact in the US.bala wrote: ↑26 Apr 2026 21:46 Currently Iran has lost its edge in most domains - leadership devastated and becomes chaotic. Iran is reeling in economic chaos, its air force and navy have been wiped off. Most of Iran's missile, drone manufacturing have been bombed out. China and Russia are providing targeting information to the Iranians. Hormuz strait control is gone and the US has control on who goes in and out. The devastation is complete and thorough but there are hold outs in pockets here and there. The pukes are looking silly with their double crossing of all parties.
China has enough cash to diversify its supply. I think China's biggest issues are internal political turmoil and the limits of its export-driven economy. She still controls 90% of the global rare earth supply, and America is not going to gain any upper hand soon because of this adventure in Iran. Trump's tariff strategy is in tatters, and there is no plan to reduce the American debt. Until that debt is paid off, China can play all sorts of games.
Now, coming down to Bharat's strategy. It looks like our folks want to stay neutral while shielding the economy from the economic impact of crude and gas supply disruptions. To an extent, they have managed the impact. However, the uncertainty will definitely impact already fragile private capital investment. That means a slower growth rate.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
With 3,000 containers stuck in Pakistan, Iran explores more land routes
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2 ... and-routes
Notification says new transit routes announced under order; Gwadar, Karachi and Taftan designated for cargo movement
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2604934/pa ... -territory
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/2 ... and-routes
Pakistan allows transit of foreign goods to Iran through its territoryThe US naval blockade didn’t just hurt Iranian exports – the Trump administration effectively controls Iran’s ability to import goods it desperately needs. Analysts say, in some ways, that economic chokehold could exert even more pressure on Iran than the American military might.
Notification says new transit routes announced under order; Gwadar, Karachi and Taftan designated for cargo movement
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2604934/pa ... -territory
The government has notified the Transit of Goods Order 2026, formally allowing the transportation of goods to Iran through Pakistan under a defined legal and regulatory framework, a notification said on Sunday.
Issued under the Imports and Exports (Control) Act, 1950, and in pursuance of the 2008 Pakistan-Iran agreement on international transport of passengers and goods by road, the order has come into force immediately.
“The Transit of Goods through the territory of Pakistan Order 2026 shall come into force at once,” the notification stated.
According to the notification, new transit routes had been announced under the order, with Gwadar, Karachi and Taftan designated for transit cargo movement.
The order defined transit as the movement of goods through Pakistan as part of a journey that began and ended outside the country, and transit transport corridors as specified routes for such movement.
...
The scope of the order applied to goods consigned from third countries and destined for Iran via Pakistani territory.
Multiple transit corridors have been designated for cargo movement, including routes linking Gwadar to Gabd; Karachi and Port Qasim through coastal and inland corridors such as Ormara, Pasni and Khuzdar to Taftan; and additional routes passing through Turbat, Hoshab, Panjgur, Quetta, Nokundi and Dalbandin.
....
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Your assumptions on gasoline prices in the US is better shown in US Gasoline Prices over time which is different than your conclusions. The price dependence solely on global crude prices is exaggerated. Kalifornia gas prices are out of whack mainly due to taxes and non-availability of Kalifornia formulation of gasoline.
Please see this on USN control of Hormuz
On China: I suggest you see some YTs from Lt. Gen P R Shankar's take on China and what ails them currently.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
In Texas (where I live) avg gas price is 3.70. I understand CA gas prices are crazy. However in other states It is a dollar more than what it was before the war started. It does hurt the working class coalition that makes a difference in polarized elections. BTW my point is not that American power cannot manage this crises. I don't agree that this is some grant American strategy to contain global power centers. It is a impulsive war that the current Admin thought it will get them a quick win and are now struggling with a clean exit strategy.bala wrote: ↑28 Apr 2026 07:13Your assumptions on gasoline prices in the US is better shown in US Gasoline Prices over time which is different than your conclusions. The price dependence solely on global crude prices is exaggerated. Kalifornia gas prices are out of whack mainly due to taxes and non-availability of Kalifornia formulation of gasoline.
Please see this on USN control of Hormuz
On China: I suggest you see some YTs from Lt. Gen P R Shankar's take on China and what ails them currently.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Israel Military Kills At Least 5 Dozen Hamas Gunmen & Wipes Out 14 Kilometers Of Gaza Terror Tunnels
Wicked Hamas refuses to mend its ways. Israeli Forces kill at least 5 dozen Hamas terrorists. 14 kilometres of Hamas tunnels destroyed in North Gaza. IDF soldiers also uncover living quarters and weapons. Big IDF action in Beit Hanoun area east of the Yellow Line. 'Yellow Line' - Israeli-marked military zones & buffer areas. Gazans pay the price for a war evil Hamas started. Hamas promised to 'liberate' Palestine. Instead, the terror group has enslaved Gazans. So-called 'liberation movement' killing Gaza civilians. The implosion of a failed political project. Hamas built its rule on terror and intimidation. Hamas' power came from the gun, not the ballot box. Analysts: Hamas was never a governing movement. Gazans used as human shields & bargaining chips
Wicked Hamas refuses to mend its ways. Israeli Forces kill at least 5 dozen Hamas terrorists. 14 kilometres of Hamas tunnels destroyed in North Gaza. IDF soldiers also uncover living quarters and weapons. Big IDF action in Beit Hanoun area east of the Yellow Line. 'Yellow Line' - Israeli-marked military zones & buffer areas. Gazans pay the price for a war evil Hamas started. Hamas promised to 'liberate' Palestine. Instead, the terror group has enslaved Gazans. So-called 'liberation movement' killing Gaza civilians. The implosion of a failed political project. Hamas built its rule on terror and intimidation. Hamas' power came from the gun, not the ballot box. Analysts: Hamas was never a governing movement. Gazans used as human shields & bargaining chips
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
IDF DESTROYS 1,000+ HEZBOLLAH SITES IN LEBANON, Weapons Cache Seized As Israel Expands Operation
The IDF dismantled over 1,000 Hezbollah terror infrastructure sites across southern Lebanon, the military. The soldiers, operating under the 91st Division, dismantled the sites, which included booby-trapped structures and buildings where terror weapons were found. IDF soldiers conduct counterterror operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, published April 28, 2026. The military said the sites were used to plan attacks against IDF troops operating in the area.
The IDF dismantled over 1,000 Hezbollah terror infrastructure sites across southern Lebanon, the military. The soldiers, operating under the 91st Division, dismantled the sites, which included booby-trapped structures and buildings where terror weapons were found. IDF soldiers conduct counterterror operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, published April 28, 2026. The military said the sites were used to plan attacks against IDF troops operating in the area.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
How An Iranian F-5 Tiger Attacked Camp Buehring | Real Life Mission Impossible - Behind Enemy Lines
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
That could well end up being the corridor the culinary institute supplies arms to rebels inside IranA_Gupta wrote: ↑28 Apr 2026 06:07 Pakistan reportedly has opened an overland transit corridor to Iran -- goods from third countries can land at Karachi or Gwadar ports and from there go over land to Iran via routes through Balochistan.
What is the game Pakistan is playing, and is it with the consent of Massa?
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S_Madhukar
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
News trickling in that UAE will leave OPEC on May 1st.. Saudi feud or need $$ to make up for losses ?
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Pakis being Pakis, they are playing both sides of the field so to speak.
Only issue is OM is a very vindcitive and overtly transactional person.
So he might extracted his pound of flesh
Only issue is OM is a very vindcitive and overtly transactional person.
So he might extracted his pound of flesh
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Make up losses. UAE had be chafing at Opec production assigned levels especially given the fact that other Opec members had been violating their production quota's.S_Madhukar wrote: ↑28 Apr 2026 18:41 News trickling in that UAE will leave OPEC on May 1st.. Saudi feud or need $$ to make up for losses ?
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Stupidity of the American's once again proven. They intervened during Op Sindoor on behalf of Pakistan to ensure transit route to the Russians and Chinese.
https://x.com/i/status/2049246530184605799
@itswpceo
Pakistan Has Officially Fooled Trump and the USA.
Pakistan has now opened six corridors with Iran to bypass the U.S. blockade.
More than 3,000 containers are already moving through these routes.
Iran can now connect directly by land to Russia and China and the US can’t stop them.
6 Opened Pakistan-Iran Transit Corridors:
1. Gwadar – Gabd
2. Karachi/Port Qasim – Lyari – Ormara – Pasni – Gabd
3. Karachi/Port Qasim – Khuzdar – Dalbandin – Taftan
4. Gwadar – Turbat – Hoshab – Panjgur – Nagg – Besima – Khuzdar – Quetta – Dalbandin – Nokundi – Taftan
5. Gwadar – Liari – Khuzdar – Quetta – Dalbandin – Nokundi – Taftan
6. Karachi/Port Qasim – Gwadar – Gabd
https://x.com/i/status/2049246530184605799
@itswpceo
Pakistan Has Officially Fooled Trump and the USA.
Pakistan has now opened six corridors with Iran to bypass the U.S. blockade.
More than 3,000 containers are already moving through these routes.
Iran can now connect directly by land to Russia and China and the US can’t stop them.
6 Opened Pakistan-Iran Transit Corridors:
1. Gwadar – Gabd
2. Karachi/Port Qasim – Lyari – Ormara – Pasni – Gabd
3. Karachi/Port Qasim – Khuzdar – Dalbandin – Taftan
4. Gwadar – Turbat – Hoshab – Panjgur – Nagg – Besima – Khuzdar – Quetta – Dalbandin – Nokundi – Taftan
5. Gwadar – Liari – Khuzdar – Quetta – Dalbandin – Nokundi – Taftan
6. Karachi/Port Qasim – Gwadar – Gabd
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
https://x.com/i/status/2049032065879040410
@ARanganathan72
Bahrain has stripped 69 individuals of their citizenship for sympathising and publicly praising as well as voicing support for Iran while the latter was at war and attacking Bahrain.
Officials added that the revocation order extends to the immediate families of those accused.

@ARanganathan72
Bahrain has stripped 69 individuals of their citizenship for sympathising and publicly praising as well as voicing support for Iran while the latter was at war and attacking Bahrain.
Officials added that the revocation order extends to the immediate families of those accused.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Why has the UAE decided to quit OPEC now?
OPEC, the global cartel of oil-producing nations, operates a quota system that limits how much oil each member can produce.
For years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has clashed with Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s most powerful member, over these quotas. The UAE has invested heavily to expand its oil industry and grow its market share, but OPEC limits have repeatedly held it back.
Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told the New York Times on Tuesday: "The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and [the] UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups."
The UAE is now betting it can sell more oil once the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz crisis ends, both in the medium and the longer term. Analysts, meanwhile, see the move as a calculated step by a producer ready to act independently.
"Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group's [OPEC] hands," said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at research consultancy Rystad Energy.
"With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table."
The UAE, which joined OPEC in 1967 through Abu Dhabi, will leave both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, on May 1.
The UAE currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd, Reuters news agency reported. Plans call for a hike in output toward 5 million bpd by next year.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
A good overview of OPEC and oil prices/cartel etc., by Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan
UAE Quits OPEC: Can Gulf Unity Survive This Shock? • Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan
The United Arab Emirates’ reported move to step away from OPEC could mark a major turning point in Gulf geopolitics, oil pricing power, and regional alliances. Is this purely an economic decision, or does it signal deeper cracks within Gulf unity?
In this discussion, Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan examines:
• Why UAE may want greater production freedom
• Impact on Saudi Arabia and OPEC cohesion
• Can Qatar, Kuwait, Oman or others rethink alignments?
• What this means for global crude prices
• China, US and India stakes in Gulf energy flows
• Could this reshape Middle East power equations?
• Is this temporary leverage or long-term strategic divorce?
UAE Quits OPEC: Can Gulf Unity Survive This Shock? • Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan
The United Arab Emirates’ reported move to step away from OPEC could mark a major turning point in Gulf geopolitics, oil pricing power, and regional alliances. Is this purely an economic decision, or does it signal deeper cracks within Gulf unity?
In this discussion, Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan examines:
• Why UAE may want greater production freedom
• Impact on Saudi Arabia and OPEC cohesion
• Can Qatar, Kuwait, Oman or others rethink alignments?
• What this means for global crude prices
• China, US and India stakes in Gulf energy flows
• Could this reshape Middle East power equations?
• Is this temporary leverage or long-term strategic divorce?
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Meanwhile: Trump's new remark on Iran:

Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
peanuts for america, no doubt..
According to UNDP estimates, the war could push 32 million people into poverty worldwide, with significant impacts on food and energy costs across Africa and Asia
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
“But that figure falls far behind many outside estimates, given the torrid pace of air and sea operations and the costs to restock expensive air defenses.” — from the link above.
—-
Also keep in mind that there is an existing and public record of Trump firing government officials who produce numbers that he doesn’t like.
—-
And regarding “peanuts for America” Trump is on record saying that the US federal government cannot afford the $30 billion per year it spends on childcare.
Last edited by A_Gupta on 30 Apr 2026 00:35, edited 2 times in total.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Penn-Wharton budget model
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/blog/
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/blog/
Projected Two-Month Cost of Operation Epic Fury
PWBM
·
Apr 1, 2026
PWBM estimates Operation Epic Fury has cost $27–28 billion in the first 32 days, with projected two-month direct costs of $38–47 billion if fighting continues to the end of April, with another $5 billion in indirect costs.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
But some here have no objection to supporting Ukraine to the tune of 100s of billions USD. They were with their DNC leaders on that one.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
Its worse than that. They emptied the coffers for their lame duck initiatives like Woke themes, Immigration and so on. In Kalifornia they spent 150 B on high speed rail from Los Angeles to the Bay Area and none of this fructified, however they are out of money since they funded their useless causes and supporting illegal immigration. Every pet scheme of the Dems is a money siphoning scheme, including day care, children health and so on. The actual people who need the help never get 1 penny of the money, instead it goes into unknown officials pockets.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
One of things that Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan confirmed is that India has 10 day supply of oil stored (around 50 million barrels). India consumes around 5 million per day. The other thing Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan said is that UAE is more diversified in its GDP compared to the rest of GCC which depend wholly on oil revenues. UAE is also building a supply route away from the Hormuz bottleneck and ships can offload away from Hormuz. It has a capacity to supply around 5M barrels per day. Saudi A can also divert away from Hormuz. Only Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar are stuck with Hormuz.
BTW Oil companies controlled by the US are gloating about breakup of OPEC. Already Venezuela's oil is under the US (150 million barrels sold since Maduro ouster). Narayanan says that Deep State is also glad. BTW Iran has huge amount of damages, pounded by the US and Israel. Some in Iran are seeking asylum in Russia.
BTW Oil companies controlled by the US are gloating about breakup of OPEC. Already Venezuela's oil is under the US (150 million barrels sold since Maduro ouster). Narayanan says that Deep State is also glad. BTW Iran has huge amount of damages, pounded by the US and Israel. Some in Iran are seeking asylum in Russia.
Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy
I am not the one saying the US cannot afford this war or the support of Iran, it is Trump that is saying he cannot afford childcare ($30 billion) but can afford that magnitude of money for a war of choice with Iran, and twenty times that amount as an **increase** in annual defense budget.
Unfortunately I cannot put it in King Charles’ type language, but both your reading and reasoning skills could use a “go back to school” refresher.
And whichever country you reside in, you greatly contribute to that country’s stupidity. I will gladly commend you for a Trump-style medal on this count.