West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Jay »

bala wrote: 30 Apr 2026 02:21
Its worse than that. They emptied the coffers for their lame duck initiatives like Woke themes, Immigration and so on. In Kalifornia they spent 150 B on high speed rail from Los Angeles to the Bay Area and none of this fructified, however they are out of money since they funded their useless causes and supporting illegal immigration. Every pet scheme of the Dems is a money siphoning scheme, including day care, children health and so on. The actual people who need the help never get 1 penny of the money, instead it goes into unknown officials pockets.
:rotfl:

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-sta ... l-revenue/

California sends over $275 billion more to the federal government than it receives back in federal spending, a larger gap than any other state.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

This observation came my way and I verified it, and now I'm puzzled.

The day before the war started till today:

Feb 26, 2026 : 1 USD = 279.45 PKR
Apr 29, 2026 : 1 USD = 278.84 PKR
PKR appreciated marginally against USD.

Feb 26, 2026 : 1 USD = 90.993 INR
Apr 29, 2026 : 1 USD = 94.917 INR
INR depreciated against the USD and by around 4%.

Meaningful explanation would be welcome.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by bala »

Jay wrote: 30 Apr 2026 05:17 https://usafacts.org/articles/which-sta ... l-revenue/

California sends over $275 billion more to the federal government than it receives back in federal spending, a larger gap than any other state.
BTW this is OT compared to the thread heading and needs to be removed, similar to the TDS oriented drivel.

Pretty silly to compare federal stuff. High networth individuals pay federal taxes.
:rotfl:

What is more important is state level affairs:

From google AI:

California, after experiencing a record $97.5 billion surplus in 2022, quickly shifted to a projected $73 billion deficit by early 2024, representing a $175 billion fiscal swing in roughly two years.

As of April 2026, California is managing a roughly $35 billion budget deficit, prompting discussions on spending cuts to key services and projects. The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) projects ongoing structural deficits between $20 billion and $30 billion annually through 2030, driven by rising costs for services, healthcare, and debt, despite recent revenue.

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2026/ ... c-deficit/
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Hi everyone,

I started this thread about a month ago with a specific vision for our dialogue (see my opening post), and I am thrilled to see how it has grown. We have surpassed 700 posts already—the depth of insight here is excellent. Thank you all for your active participation!

To ensure the thread remains a valuable resource for everyone, I’d like to share a quick reminder:
  • Please keep all contributions focused on the West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy, as outlined in the opening post..
  • While all perspectives are welcome, a small number of posts (from just one or two people) have drifted away from the primary topic. If you have thoughts on other geopolitical matters or general debates, please move those discussions to a more appropriate thread.
Let’s keep our energy focused on the strategic developments and analysis that make this thread impactful.

Thank you for your cooperation in keeping this discussion high-quality and on track!
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

A_Gupta wrote: 30 Apr 2026 05:36 This observation came my way and I verified it, and now I'm puzzled.

The day before the war started till today:

Feb 26, 2026 : 1 USD = 279.45 PKR
Apr 29, 2026 : 1 USD = 278.84 PKR
PKR appreciated marginally against USD.

Feb 26, 2026 : 1 USD = 90.993 INR
Apr 29, 2026 : 1 USD = 94.917 INR
INR depreciated against the USD and by around 4%.

Meaningful explanation would be welcome.
AI's 'thoughts':
"The INR’s depreciation is a sign of an economy that is "breathing" with the global market—it takes the hit now to stay flexible. The PKR’s appreciation suggests a "shield" is being held up by the central bank. While the shield keeps the price stable for now, it usually comes at the cost of depleting foreign reserves or increasing national debt."
..Additiona thoughts/explanations ..welcome..
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Adam Kinzinger @AdamKinzinger on X (Retweeted by Gary Kasparov)
Trump, after having a 90 min phone call with Putin, puts out a truth social that he is considering withdrawing all troops from Germany. Something sinister is going on between them. It’s time for “concerned” Republicans to speak out
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Trump says Putin offered help with Iran enriched uranium: Why Russia wants Iranian uranium?
450 kg enriched to 60%.
1,000 kg enriched to 20%.
8,500 kg enriched to 3.6
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

The Iran War is beginning to bite India, e.g., the Hindustan Times reports:
Indian airlines warn Centre of flight cancellations over fuel crisis amid West Asia conflict
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 45238.html
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by SRajesh »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 593667.cms
Loss of US assests in the current conflict.
This is quite eye opener and an extensive loss isnt it?? :shock:
Question to Deansji and others in the forum:
1. Is this a real assessment or some sort of Dems iniitiative to embarrass OM
2. If true this amount of loss : what is the reason : a. Underestimating Iranian capabilities b. Poor protection of ground assessts in these bases due to improper infrastructure put in place or c. sheer stupidity of the US CENTCOM!!
Now that the cats out of the bag, is this reason for some of the heads rolling in the recent past??
Did the Top Brass really mess up the preparation or are they now dumbing down like Chinese Lordlings and Pakis Strategic AnalCysts !!!
This reflects poorly on the US might.
Especially if one takes into account how India fared against Pakis last year, giving them a proper Ass-whipping!!
In days to come I am pretty sure this comparision will be brought up by the Eurotrash now that OM is giving them a hard time.
Or we should bring this up to remind CNN, NYT, WaPo about their so called almighty army. :D
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ two unnamed Congressional aides, one named official, and a review of satellite photos by the news outlet are the sources of these damage estimates.

Trying to search deeper for the credibility of all this.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

Question: Various news outlets have estimated the damage inflicted by Iran on US bases in the GCC countries. What is the basis of these estimates, how many independent sources and independent lines of evidence are there?

Google Gemini:

Estimates regarding the damage inflicted by Iran on U.S. and allied bases in GCC countries during the 2026 conflict are based on a convergence of internal government leaks, independent satellite analysis, and reporting from several major international news organizations. As of May 2026, these estimates typically range from **$5 billion** for immediate repairs to over **$50 billion** for total asset replacement and base reconstruction (CNN, 2026; Middle East Monitor, 2026).

### **1. Basis of the Estimates**

The estimates are derived from four primary methodologies:
* **Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) Leaks:** Intelligence officials and "informed sources" within the Pentagon have provided specific breakdowns of destroyed infrastructure to outlets like NBC and the Wall Street Journal. These include damage to runways, command centers, and satellite communications at bases in **Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar** (NBC News, 2026).
* **Congressional Budget Requests:** The Pentagon’s request for over **$200 billion** in emergency funding and internal pushback from lawmakers (such as Rep. Ro Khanna) have served as a financial proxy for assessing the scale of the damage. Lawmakers have argued that the official $25 billion "war cost" figure is a "lowball" that excludes major reconstruction needs (CNN, 2026).
* **Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) & Satellite Imagery:** Independent think tanks, most notably the **International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)** and the **American Enterprise Institute (AEI)**, have conducted mapping of the strikes. IISS reported at least **48 confirmed hits** on strategic sites using commercial satellite imagery to verify damage to high-value assets like the THAAD radar system in Jordan and facilities in the UAE (IISS, 2026).
* **Local Reporting & Visual Evidence:** On-the-ground photography from agencies such as **Anadolu Agency** has provided visual confirmation of smoke and structural damage, particularly at the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet headquarters in Manama, Bahrain (Middle East Monitor, 2026).

---

### **2. Independent Sources and Lines of Evidence**
The reporting relies on at least **five distinct lines of evidence** and several primary independent sources:

| **Source/Line of Evidence** | **Primary Independent Sources** | **Key Evidence Provided** |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Investigative Media** | NBC News, CNN, Wall Street Journal (WSJ) | Citing anonymous US officials; reported destruction of E-3 Sentry aircraft and radar systems. |
| **Analytical Think Tanks** | IISS, American Enterprise Institute (AEI) | Mapping of 48+ hits; verification of "qualitatively different" Iranian strike patterns compared to 2025. |
| **Legislative Oversight** | House Armed Services Committee | Public testimony regarding the $11 billion cost of the first six days of the war. |
| **International Agencies** | UN Security Council / IAEA | Resolutions and reports regarding the escalation and site inspections. |
| **Combatant Claims** | IRGC (Fars News), U.S. CENTCOM | IRGC claims of destroying AN/TPY-2 and THAAD radars; CENTCOM’s refusal to comment on BDAs (Battle Damage Assessments). |

### **Summary of Evidence Reliability**
While the **U.S. Department of Defense** has been reluctant to release a full public ledger of the damage, the consistency across **three major independent media investigations** (NBC, WSJ, and CNN) and **two independent think tank assessments** (IISS and AEI) provides a high degree of confidence in the reported scale of the destruction. These sources collectively suggest that the strikes bypassed advanced air defenses in multiple instances, including a notable penetration by an Iranian F-5 aircraft and numerous drone strikes on command centers (Madhyamam Online, 2026; WION, 2026).

**References**
CNN. (2026). Repairing damaged US military bases will add billions to Iran war cost, sources say. [https://www.cbs58.com/news/repairing-da ... ources-say](https://www.cbs58.com/news/repairing-da ... ources-say)
IISS. (2026). Mapping the damage: Iranian strikes on the GCC. [https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/on ... n-the-gcc/](https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/on ... n-the-gcc/)
Middle East Monitor. (2026). Report reveals scale of damage to US bases in Gulf after Iranian strikes. [https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260 ... n-strikes/](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20260 ... n-strikes/)
NBC News. (2026). Iran inflicted 'extensive' damage to US bases than previously disclosed: Report. [https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/ir ... rt/3917950](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/ir ... rt/3917950)
WION. (2026). Iran War: Reports Suggest Extensive Damage to US Bases, Repair Could Cost Billions. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xnisi9C2nX0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xnisi9C2nX0)
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Trump Tells Congress Why He Doesn’t Need Its Authorization for the Iran War - The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/01/us/p ... -war.html

The Iran War Is Terminated Because Trump Said So!
"
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

US envoy Steve Witkoff sent a list of amendments on Monday to reinsert the nuclear issue into the agreement under discussion.
One of these amendments demands that Iran commit to not attempting to move any enriched uranium, reports US media citing an informed source.

*******
Based on recent reports from Axios and other U.S. media outlets, here are the details ..


-The primary objective of the amendments by Witkoff is to firmly reintroduce Iran's nuclear program into the current peace and ceasefire negotiations. Previous proposals from Iran had attempted to defer the nuclear issue to future discussions while focusing immediately on lifting the U.S. naval blockade and restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. is insisting that the nuclear issue must be addressed now.

- To prevent Iran from advancing its nuclear capabilities while talks are ongoing, the U.S. amendments include several strict, immediate demands:

- Iran must commit to not transferring or removing any of its existing enriched uranium stockpiles from its bombed nuclear facilities (such as the Natanz enrichment facility).

- Iran must pledge not to resume any nuclear-related research, enrichment, or operations at those targeted sites for the entire duration of the negotiations.
-
The U.S. is seeking verification measures to ensure compliance, including inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Iran submitted a revised counter-proposal to the U.S. (through Pakistani) --Trump told reporters on Friday that he was "not satisfied" :
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

Times of Israel reports:

US approves arms sales of over $8.6 billion for Israel, Qatar, Kuwait and UAE
Almost $1 billion okayed for laser-guided weapons kit for Israel; US said to warn European allies to expect delivery delays for weapons as Iran war drains stockpiles

https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-approv ... st-allies/
Friday’s announcements by the State Department included approving military sales to Qatar of Patriot air and missile defense replenishment services costing $4.01 billion and of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems (APKWS) — a laser-guided weapons kit — costing $992.4 million.

They also included approval of the sale to Kuwait of an integrated battle command system costing $2.5 billion and to Israel of Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems costing $992.4 million.

The State Department approved a sale to the UAE of APKWS for $147.6 million.

Meanwhile, Washington has warned European allies, including the UK, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia, to expect long delivery delays for US weapons as the war against Iran drains stockpiles, the Financial Times reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

American lives mean nothing to this regime.
Pete Hegseth call wounded soldiers liars and is asked to resig
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Vayutuvan »

That account is @Devin Nunes' Cattle Dog. DP has Pukraine, EU, US, and Canadian flags. This one wants American tax payers to pay for Pukraine's defense against ex-commie orthodox xtist Russia.

Not that I like this war either. The US should have no case to meddle in other countries' affairs.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

The clearest indication that the GOTUS has not told the public the full story of what has happened in the war with Iran is that GOTUS says the war has cost $25 billion, but is asking Congress for $200 billion as emergency supplemental funding --- not an advance on the $1.5 trillion budget request, but in addition.

Why would they need 8 times the amount they have spent so far? Even if we go with public interest groups' estimate of around $50 billion, why would they want 4 times what has been spent so far? That too, when POTUS says that the war is over - at least, the kinetic part of it.

Prudence might dictate, get money for the costs incurred so far, and for another sixty days, i.e., $50-$100 billion at most. It therefore remains plausible that a lot of damage is being covered up.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by williams »

Amber G. wrote: 30 Apr 2026 07:51
A_Gupta wrote: 30 Apr 2026 05:36 This observation came my way and I verified it, and now I'm puzzled.

The day before the war started till today:

Feb 26, 2026 : 1 USD = 279.45 PKR
Apr 29, 2026 : 1 USD = 278.84 PKR
PKR appreciated marginally against USD.

Feb 26, 2026 : 1 USD = 90.993 INR
Apr 29, 2026 : 1 USD = 94.917 INR
INR depreciated against the USD and by around 4%.

Meaningful explanation would be welcome.
AI's 'thoughts':
"The INR’s depreciation is a sign of an economy that is "breathing" with the global market—it takes the hit now to stay flexible. The PKR’s appreciation suggests a "shield" is being held up by the central bank. While the shield keeps the price stable for now, it usually comes at the cost of depleting foreign reserves or increasing national debt."
..Additiona thoughts/explanations ..welcome..
IMO - living breathing economy vs about to die economy. It sounds like the world is trading more in USD and less with INR. So the supply/demand curve is real. PKR value is a lot more stable and cheap since it had hit the bottom already and nothing can change that fact.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

https://x.com/i/status/2050616958416998402
@RT_com
IRAN DROPS HAMMER on Hormuz Strait with new orders

NO Israeli ships allowed to pass — EVER

Hostile nations blocked unless they pay WAR REPARATIONS

All others need Tehran’s approval

NO return to pre-war normal

Draft law READY — Al Jazeera citing Parliament VP
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Deans »

Part 2 of my Iran war blog series.
I look at why American assumptions about Iran's ability to withstand the blockade may be misplaced and it is the Gulf states that will be
hit more.

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/ir ... storm.html
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

The supply chain disruptions that happened during the COVID pandemic taught countries that they must diversity their supply chains, too much reliance on any one country, China specifically, made them vulnerable.

The move to that diversification is a slow, long process and further complicated by the trade disputes that the US has created under Trump. But I think the lesson, once learned, will not be forgotten easily.

Similarly, the recent actions of the US have taught its allies - almost everyone sheltered under its security umbrella - that such an arrangement makes them vulnerable. They will change, and the change is going to long and slow; and will be complicated by any aggressive moves by China or Russia; and unresolved issues with Iran and so on; but I think the lesson, once learned, will not be forgotten easily

--
As noted by many analysts, the lesson to China of the Strait of Hormuz is that they do not need to invade Taiwan; they just need to restrict traffic to/from Taiwan; and since Taiwan is the provider of electronics chips to the world, China has a stranglehold on the world similar to that of Iran.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by uddu »

Iran Claims Hits on US Navy Ships, US Launches Project Freedom, Actions Begins I Aadi
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by ShauryaT »

Uddu: Please check source veracity. We live in a world of fake news. Let us all try to reduce noise here.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Deans »

SRajesh wrote: 01 May 2026 22:00 https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 593667.cms
Loss of US assests in the current conflict.
This is quite eye opener and an extensive loss isnt it?? :shock:
Question to Deansji and others in the forum:
1. Is this a real assessment or some sort of Dems iniitiative to embarrass OM
2. If true this amount of loss : what is the reason : a. Underestimating Iranian capabilities b. Poor protection of ground assessts in these bases due to improper infrastructure put in place or c. sheer stupidity of the US CENTCOM!!
Now that the cats out of the bag, is this reason for some of the heads rolling in the recent past??
The US losses are real. There is enough Chinese satellite evidence of damages to bases and aircraft on the ground.
There is one Chinese satellite being used (as per US intel) for Iran related purposes.
US satellite image firms have been banned from selling this data.

On a separate note, a bunch of Chinese satellites could not find wreckage of any IAF aircraft to back up Pak claims during Op Sindhoor.

The heads rolling in the Pentagon are not related to this, but just Hegseth throwing his weight around (officially sacked by Trump or asked to retire). He has sacked some very reportedly very competent generals (19, since he took over)
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Deans »

A_Gupta wrote: 01 May 2026 05:27 The Iran War is beginning to bite India, e.g., the Hindustan Times reports:
Indian airlines warn Centre of flight cancellations over fuel crisis amid West Asia conflict
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 45238.html
There will be a problem from June. Consider Crude oil (my figures are approx.)

We import 5 million barrels a day. 40% crosses the Strait of Hormuz
Thus we lost 2 million Barrels /day (2 MBD) since the war began.

Of this shortfall, 1 MBD has been made up by Russia.
0.3 MBD from Venezuela, since Reliance can process their heavy crude (most refineries cant).
0.2-0.3 MBD from Brazil/ US etc. Giving a shortfall of about 0.5 Mbd. However.

When the war began, we had roughly 42 million barrels of Hormuz oil at sea.
We bought about 30 million barrels of Iranian oil at sea (where US waived sanctions). This is usually transferred from 3rd country tankers at sea.

Russian/Venezuelan oil started reaching us from April. In March, from the stock at sea (72 Mil barrels) we used up 50-60 mil barrels.
The remaining stock at sea would have been used up by now.

Thus, from May, we have a daily shortfall in oil of about 0.5 MBD and an increase in price in US$ AND a depreciation in the Rupee.
We can manage the shortfall either by drawing from our strategic reserve (probably 60-70 mil barrels) or getting more crude from existing suppliers, or trying to buy from Iran through 3rd party sales at sea (as China is doing), but we don't have the clout to challenge US sanctions.
Now that the elections are over and we are facing a depletion in our strategic reserve of oil, I expect a significant price hike.

There is a similar problem with gas, fertilizer and helium.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile - Gas prices rose about $1 per gallon in just last week in Cincinnati, Ohio.
>The average price rose 96.3 cents to $4.79 per gallon, up 99.5 cents from a month ago and $1.69 higher than a year ago, based on a survey of 637 stations.
(Across the river, in Northern Kentucky the average price shot up $1.06 to $5.00 per gallon, and $1.96 higher than a year ago.)

Remember getting gas of under $2/gallon (with frequent buyer card - giving about savings if $1/gallon) in those dumbocrats time..)
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

Meanwhile: The UAE must be so shattered reading this.. from these Pakistanis ...
Image
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Trump says the war on Iran is over now and then so that the 60 days limit/leeway for emergency war powers can be reset, escaping congressional approval. He hasn't really declared war, and has won it multiple times already so no one is sure how to pin him on this :rotfl:

Rupee depreciation against the dollar reflects the market's assessment/understanding of India's vulnerabilities dueto this war on Iran, energy security, food security (fertilizers), trade disruptions due to impact on exports to the region, expat community exposure, remittance impact etc. India's overt closeness with Israel also makes the market evaluation as risky.
Rupee falling of course makes exports more competitive, but how far we will let it drop and at what point it will make our imports unaffordable and cause inflationary pressure is hard to determine.

Mostly the GoI keeps its cards close to it's chest and is difficult to prognosticate.

As our economy is growing bigger and bigger, hedging is expensive and shielding is not easy.

Net net it's all maya, we can only place some (blind) trust in the GoI.

The good thing is that this is a great time for NRI investments in India, before the rupee starts appreciating again :)
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by drnayar »

Amber G. wrote: 05 May 2026 00:22 Meanwhile: The UAE must be so shattered reading this.. from these Pakistanis ...
[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HHc5_XCaEAA ... name=small[/img
:rotfl:

The paks are a class all by themselves :mrgreen:
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by drnayar »

Hope we increase those oil reserves when it's feasible .. need at least 10x the quantity in storage now !
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

It's being done, and for a few years now. Underground storage facilities take time. Different types of crude cannot be mixed together, can release noxious fumes, highly inflammable, and need extensive safety planning and engineering to be stored in large quantities ug.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by KL Dubey »

Cyrano wrote: 05 May 2026 04:39 Different types of crude cannot be mixed together, can release noxious fumes, highly inflammable, and need extensive safety planning and engineering to be stored in large quantities ug.
It all takes time, but this art/science is very well established. Different crudes can be mixed for storage (whether short term as feedstock for refining or for longer term storage) in a scientific way. E.g. we are getting light sweet Russian crude which is ideal for mixing with the heavy sour crude from Venezuela.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

@SRajesh, some buzz is there that the leaks about damage to US bases in the GCC countries were orchestrated by J.D. Vance, in part because he wants the US out of this war and partly some byzantine calculation about his political future.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by A_Gupta »

US Treasury: April 28:
Treasury Warns of Sanctions Risks Linked to China-Based Independent “Teapot” Oil Refineries
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0476
WASHINGTON—The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is alerting financial institutions to the sanctions risks associated with independent “teapot” oil refineries in China, primarily in Shandong Province, given their continued role in importing and refining Iranian crude oil.
Al Jazeera: May 3:
China blocks US sanctions against five ‘teapot’ refineries
Ministry of Commerce says sanctions against refineries accused of importing Iranian oil violate international law.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/ ... refineries
China has announced an injunction to block US sanctions placed on five Chinese refiners accused ‌of buying oil from Iran.

The US sanctions announced by the Department of the Treasury late last month bar the refiners from the US financial system and seek to penalise anyone doing business with the firms.

In a statement on Saturday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said the sanctions “improperly” restrict business between Chinese enterprises and third countries “in violation of international law and the basic norms governing international relations”.

The Commerce Ministry said it had issued a “prohibition order” stipulating that the sanctions “shall not be recognized, enforced, or complied with,” calling the order a move to “safeguard national sovereignty, security, and development interests”.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

US intelligence indicates limited new damage to Iran's nuclear program, sources say

According to this report- intelligence assessments:

Despite recent operations, Tehran’s potential timeline to produce a nuclear weapon remains largely unchanged. The program's overall trajectory—specifically the time required to accumulate enough material for a nuclear device—is considered "broadly intact."
- While earlier strikes on key facilities (such as Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan) in 2025 reportedly set the program back by several months, the most recent round of strikes has failed to significantly extend that delay.

- Intelligence suggests that much of the critical underground infrastructure survived previous "obliteration" attempts. Iranian authorities were also reportedly successful in moving a portion of their highly enriched uranium stockpile to secure locations before strikes occurred.

The assessment contradicts more optimistic public statements from some U.S. and Israeli officials who had claimed the nuclear program was "destroyed" or "brought to ruin."
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Rudradev »

If the US really wants to strike these deeply buried facilities to intended effect, it will have to revive something like the 2003 RNEP programme.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Deans »

https://rpdeans.blogspot.com/2026/05/th ... risis.html

My blog post on an energy crisis that is already in our midst. My sense is the govt is not taking this seriously enough - at least going by the media. Yesterday, I did a short post with some numbers on this and I had a feeling that things were under control, but a deeper dive into the data suggested they are not.
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by Amber G. »

kamikaze dolphins?
Hegseth: I can't confirm or deny whether we have kamikaze dolphins, but I can confirm they dont'
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by ShauryaT »

Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. President DONALD J. TRUMP
IOW: US cannot execute the FON or we get a deal tomorrow?
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Re: West Asia Crisis — Discussion, Developments, and Bharat’s Strategy

Post by S_Madhukar »

Amber G. wrote: 05 May 2026 21:06 kamikaze dolphins?
Hegseth: I can't confirm or deny whether we have kamikaze dolphins, but I can confirm they dont'
Come on Pete admit it that the orca from Free Willy was a US trained hunter killer ! :lol: Don’t fool MAGA with dolphin stories !
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