Understanding the US - Again

[drnayar]

After Beijing, the World Looks Different - By Prof Robert Pape

Posting this article from Prof Robert Pape's substack with conclusions similar to what KL Dubey ji posted in his post above. It is worth spending a few minutes to read it and digest its conclusions. Posting his final conclusion below for the benefit of interested readers.

If you found this analysis useful, please consider sharing it with others trying to understand how the Iran war is reshaping not only the Middle East, but the future balance of global great power politics itself.

I am worried about how China will view this new order wrt to its designs to undermine India to become numero Uno in Asia and the world. Will it become more aggressive or encourage its lapdogs to become aggressive?

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

[A_Gupta]

Me, I just want a deal that puts India back on track.

I am not sure what "deal" you are referring to, and why India "needs a deal" to be "back on track".

India’s economy is negatively impacted by the war.

Quote(AI summary, but you can put together the picture yourself too)

The macroeconomic impact of the war involving Iran on the Indian economy acts primarily as a severe supply-side shock transmitted through energy markets, trade bottlenecks, and labor disruptions. Because India relies on imports for roughly 85% to 90% of its crude oil and a significant portion of its natural gas, the disruption of regional shipping routes—particularly the Strait of Hormuz—has triggered substantial inflationary pressures and a widening current account deficit. Estimates indicate that a prolonged conflict keeping oil prices elevated could pare India's GDP growth by 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points.

Furthermore, the macro-shocks are compounding across several domestic and external sectors:

Currency and Capital Flight: Increased dollar demand to cover costlier oil imports, coupled with foreign investors fleeing emerging markets, has depreciated the Indian rupee to record lows. This weakens import purchasing power and worsens imported inflation.

Trade and Manufacturing Costs: Skyrocketing maritime insurance premiums and freight costs—caused by vessels bypassing blockades and rerouting around Africa—have squeezed margins for key Indian export sectors like textiles, leather, and handicrafts. Industrial sectors like steelmaking are simultaneously facing localized production cuts due to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shortages.

Labor and Remittances Strain: The economic slowdown in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region has choked off a vital employment engine for millions of Indian blue-collar expatriates. This has led to a deceleration in recruitment and a notable drop in inbound foreign remittances, adding further structural strain to India's domestic job market and foreign exchange reserves.

[Kanoji]

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

Thank you drnayar ji. Could I request you yo post links on the underlined part above?

[A_Gupta]

Just one statistic: India’s wholesale manufacturing prices increased 4.62% year-on-year in April 2026, accelerating from a 3.39% rise in March, and marking the fastest growth since September 2022.

Unlike the UPA which did growth for growth’s sake, Modi sarkar’s policy is to provide macroeconomic stability and let growth come as it may. This is what is at risk.

To put it another way, PM Modi made an "austerity" speech. That was serious.

[Cyrano]

What a rant! A lot of it is justified.

[drnayar]

Both. America and China are opportunistic. As long as Indians keep their sanity and invest in stable governance , both will keep their distance. India with each passing day , is a power too big to ignore, too big to fight against directly [ and indirectly as well ! .. i am impressed how the cockroach party has been dealt with behind the scenes ] .. and the only power in the world that can go toe to toe with them., it may not win but it will drag the other down !

Thank you drnayar ji. Could I request you yo post links on the underlined part above?

there is no one post ., just take it fwiw for now. X has some posts where cockroach websites have been taken down , their social media accounts now propped up by paki handles etc. Will post as soon as some more news come out in open source.

[KL Dubey]

India’s economy is negatively impacted by the war.

That wasn't the question I asked. The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them. Hoping for anything concrete from any of these fake-ass "deals" is foolhardy. As mentioned in other posts above, Bharat should continue on its path (most notably renewables deployment), with additional oil supplies short term, austerity measures as needed, etc. And Bharat continues to ink proper and tangible agreements with other countries, not "deals".

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. Anyone coming with the word "deal" in any document or message should be summarily rejected. Acceptable words should be enquiry, proposal, negotiation, documentation, and agreement. IOW, "Deal" with your shyte before showing up at Bharat's door.

[Vayutuvan]

What a rant! A lot of it is justified.

[youtube...]j9MubNsh3rs[/youtube]

British? Pot kettle black AKA guruvedna ginja

[Vayutuvan]

PS: I would also say that the word "deal" should be banned from Indian diplomatic/international trade parlance. ...

MoU should also be banned. If it is not enforceable, then it is not a legal contract with contractual obligations and a redressal mechanism in case the contract is broken.

MoU is BS weasel phrase. Indian babus love it as much as the Amrus love the word "Deal".

[A_Gupta]

The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them.

This is what I wrote. (Below, emphasis added). I thought it was obvious that “deal” referred to any kind of US-Iran agreement that brought back normal operations to the Gulf. Since the war began at the end of February 2026 (or June 2025) I don’t understand what you mean by January 2025, unless it was a trade agreement between India and the US.

Trista Parsi of the Quincy Institute said that the way you can know that the US is actually close to a deal with Iran is that the war hawks in the US will start criticizing the deal and/or Trump.

Sure enough, Senator Ted Cruz is criticizing the proposed deal. Lindsay Graham also is a war hawk, but he is also incapable of being critical of anything Trump does.

—-
Me, I just want a deal that puts India back on track. Trump can have a Nobel Prize a year for all I care.

You then began as below, and I thought, since the deal I was talking about was obviously a US-Iran deal, that you might be under the impression that India being able to obtain petroleum meant that all was well. But it is not, it just means no shortages. That oil is coming in at a much higher price, widening India’s current account deficit. The government is eating that cost to spare the Indian consumer, and that is putting a strain on its finances. If the US-Iran stand-off continues for another few months, the Indian economy will reach a bad place.

Helium, urea, natural gas are also an issue. If the GCC economies contract (Qatar at 8%, Dubai 7%, UAE overall 4.8%), the Indian workers there are going to earn less, and there will be pressure on remittances. If I am spelling out the obvious, it is because I was mistaken that in my previous post it was obvious the “deal” referred to a US-Iran deal.

I am not sure what "deal" you are referring to, and why India "needs a deal" to be "back on track".

- Russian oil (regardless of any US sanctions/waivers) and Venezuelan oil are flowing to India. In fact the latter was one of our largest oil suppliers until Trump first-term sanctions. Reliance built its refineries to be able to refine heavy sour Venezuelan crude. GCC and Iran oil flows will resume and prices will resume a downward trend for a while.…

[A_Gupta]

The Times of Israel reports:
Trump links Abraham Accords to Iran deal, says joining should be ‘mandatory’ for 6 Muslim nations, tells Saudis and Qataris to go first

US President Donald Trump ties the emerging Iran deal with the Abraham Accords normalization agreements with Israel and says joining it should be “mandatory” for six Muslim nations, telling Saudi Arabia and Qatar to sign up first.
...
He specifies those countries as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Jordan, and also lists the UAE and Bahrain while noting they are already members.

[KL Dubey]

The question was what "deal" are you referring to, and why does India need this "deal". There are no "deals" on the table, it is all complete BS. There is nonstop talk about "deals" since January 2025, but none of these "deals" mean anything and there is no documentation to support any of them.

This is what I wrote. (Below, emphasis added). I thought it was obvious that “deal” referred to any kind of US-Iran agreement that brought back normal operations to the Gulf. Since the war began at the end of February 2026 (or June 2025) I don’t understand what you mean by January 2025, unless it was a trade agreement between India and the US.

[/quote]

OK, I get that. But there is no such "deal". Like I said, after 1.5 years of this "deal" drama, putting any stock in such thing is a waste of time.

I've mentioned multiple times Bharat sarkar has seen through the "deal" tamasha and instead focused on strengthening Bharat without any "dealbaazi".

Dealwale dulhaniya nahi le jaayenge...bas shehnai bajaate rah jaayenge.

[A_Gupta]

^^^ India has zero to do with any US-Iran deal that results in a cessation of hostilities and a resumption of commerce in the GCC states; but India will benefit from it. Even it is for 30 days or 60 days or otherwise temporary. It will be a relief to India's current account and government deficit, to inflation and to the foreign exchange situation. I don't see what any dealbazi or dulhaniya or shehnai has to do with it, or why trust or lack thereof comes into the picture. But OK, whatever.

[uddu]

Those countries that were linked to the U.S by the hip are derisking and doing Multialignment.
EU and Mexico seal trade deal to reduce reliance on US | DW News
Facing pressure from Donald Trump’s tariffs, the European Union and Mexico are turning to each other. A newly finalized trade pact aims to cut barriers and boost investment—but also signals a broader effort to reduce reliance on the United States. The deal reflects shifting global alliances, though Mexico must tread carefully as it renegotiates its crucial trade relationship with Washington.

Chapters:
0:00 EU and Mexico finally finalize trade deal
2:48 Irene Banos Ruiz, Journalist
3:57 How important is deal for both markets?
5:33 The deal's anti-Trump aspects
7:50 When does the deal start?

[uddu]

https://x.com/i/status/2058927256052117814
@Chopsyturvey
Hilarious

[uddu]

Those foolish Indian's who think the U.S is ranked above India in Press Freedom don't understand U.S properly. Common man cannot utter a word against the establishment.
Woman arrested after Facebook post over water concerns


The kind of craziness happening in the U.S is unparalled anywhere in the world
Detective Realizes He’s Interrogating The Victim