India-US relations: News and Discussions IV

[Tanaji]

There is nothing else for it. The IN has to escort Indian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman. If IN cannot secure India's shipping interests in India's own neighbourhood, what is the use of it? To scare the puny Pakis?

What is the plan should US decide to interdict the Indian convoy? Or if Iran decides to fire some drones to involve India? Or more likely a false flag attack by any of the actors in the region?

[Rudradev]

For drones (either Iranian or fired by Pakistan/Pak-proxies), I'm sure the IN has countermeasures. That would actually be the point of an armed escort.

If the USN decided to interdict an IN-escorted convoy, that would result in a standoff and a major international incident. The US would be forced to confront whether it's worth going to war against India in its present situation. There are military, commercial, diplomatic, and political pressure points within the US system that can be leveraged to resolve the outcome in India's favour. The record suggests that Trump would publicly fulminate and throw a tantrum, but ultimately back down. There would simply be too much for the US to lose vs. the probability of a conclusive gain towards its current priorities.

The USN's current willingness to interdict Indian shipping is only because the Trump administration has calculated that India will do nothing. IN escorts would be an unmistakable signal that India is willing to fight to preserve its core interests in its near abroad.

[A_Gupta]

No Indian-flagged merchant ship has been hit so far. The ownership of merchant ships in shadow fleets is typically opaque. “Operated under opaque international maritime ownership structures typical of sanctioned networks.”

[Lisa]

https://x.com/rishibagree/status/2065329204535898358

Some facts that you should Know :

The tragic loss of 3 Indian sailors off Oman is an unfortunate case of collateral damage. The Modi govt issued multiple travel advisories urging citizens to vacate the war zone. Yet, some chose to sail for foreign-flagged shadow fleets. It was the Palau-flagged MT Settebello that ignored US Navy orders to stop, not an Indian vessel.

The Indian crew became tragic collateral damage due to the reckless decisions of foreign ship operators

[chanakyaa]

https://x.com/rishibagree/status/2065329204535898358

...
The Indian crew became tragic collateral damage due to the reckless decisions of foreign ship operators

This character Rishi Bagree on X has demonstrated his extreme loyalty to BJP IT cell. Just read comments to his posts.

Simple web searches indicate that the ship "Settebello" is owned by Aqua Aurora Shipping Lines based in India.
And, its operator IOS Marine FZE is managed by Dubai based Indians. Just because it wasn't flying Indian flag does not mean anything.

Characterizing the killings as "Collateral Damage" thru its IT cell and hiding behind "Palau-flagged" blah blah is pathetic. What if the roles were reversed?

[krithivas]

The loss of three Indian lives is unacceptable, period. No amount of explanation will rationalize this loss of Indian life as many of us have merchant seamen in our families. This reckless action requires an immediate public measurable response beyond demarche. Examples, Issue an arrest warrant for the captain/crew of the ship, summon secretary of war, ban that ship from anywhere closer to Indian waters etc.

As I mentioned before - This war has already had material cost-of-living impact on 1.4B Indian people. And now the violent death of three of them.

If you don't act now, screw your strategic autonomy.

https://x.com/rishibagree/status/2065329204535898358

...
The Indian crew became tragic collateral damage due to the reckless decisions of foreign ship operators

This character Rishi Bagree on X has demonstrated his extreme loyalty to BJP IT cell. Just read comments to his posts.

Simple web searches indicate that the ship "Settebello" is owned by Aqua Aurora Shipping Lines based in India.
And, its operator IOS Marine FZE is managed by Dubai based Indians. Just because it wasn't flying Indian flag does not mean anything.

Characterizing the killings as "Collateral Damage" thru its IT cell and hiding behind "Palau-flagged" blah blah is pathetic. What if the roles were reversed?

[Jay]

The loss of three Indian lives is unacceptable, period. No amount of explanation will rationalize this loss of Indian life as many of us have merchant seamen in our families. This reckless action requires an immediate public measurable response beyond demarche.

Sure. Are we going to do the same for lives lost in UAE, and Kuwait because of Iran's actions? In Russia because of ukraines's actions?

Yeah, this is a reckless reactions, but these guys are just in the wrong place at the moment and they are not even on an Indian flagged carrier, and not employed by GOI, or any Indian companies.

[S_Madhukar]

Americans are always trigger happy … their cops are also trigger happy what to expect of their frustrated navy crews.. expect more tamasha …
Best is to issue advisory to Indian crews as well. If their owners don’t listen then let them strike abandon ship etc

[S_Madhukar]

I am reminded of that strike on Chinese embassy during Serbia operation in 90s. Don’t know if they were up to some thing but it seems like now it is our turn to take the punishment even though indirectly. I hope we resolve to strengthen our IN and reach from these lessons.

[A_Gupta]

So if Indian nurses/healthcare workers in Israel get killed or injured, well, it is their fault, they are in a known war zone.

The rationalizations on BRF are mind-boggling; my guess is this is odds with both India public opinion and GoI opinion - that is why the GoI issued a demarche.

[Manish_Sharma]

Rubio actually came for rare earth minerals

He sealed the deal of our national wealth

This is what you were talking about?
_________⬇

https://x.com/USAndIndia/status/2065083 ... 20424?s=20

The United States and India signed a bilateral Critical Minerals Framework, marking a milestone in the strategic partnership between the U.S. and India. This sets us on a path toward reliable & resilient mineral supply chains, reinforcing key objectives established by @POTUS
.

[Amber G.]

Jaishankar speaks to Rubio, lodges strong protest over U.S. Navy attacks that killed three Indians

“Spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio this evening. I reiterated India’s strong protest at the attacks by the U.S. Navy in the Gulf that killed three Indian mariners,” Mr. Jaishankar said.

Also:

India summons U.S. Deputy Chief of Mission again after another attack on merchant ship with Indian crew

“Yet another vessel with 20 Indian crew on board came under attack. The U.S. envoy was called in by Additional Secretary (Americas) in the Ministry of External Affairs,”

[A_Gupta]

Also to note, under international law, firing on a ship is legally considered an act of war on the flag State, not the owner’s State.

So, so far the US has not committed an act of war against India.

[krithivas]

The world was, is and will always be lawless. India needs to be a bit more Chanakyan, and little less Harishchandra.

Thanks to Copilot, make a claim or a law that states === "The presence of [x] Indian nationals aboard a vessel located in international waters shall, for all legal, jurisdictional, and enforcement purposes, be deemed to vest the vessel with the character and status of an extension of the territory of the Republic of India. The burden of due diligence and verification regarding the composition, nationality, and status of the crew—irrespective of the vessel’s flag, registry, or ownership—shall rest exclusively upon any State or entity undertaking or initiating hostile, coercive, or otherwise aggressive action against said vessel.”

People of Indian origin scouring the world for opportunities are an extension of the Indian economy. GOI must be assertive in protecting their right to life and property.

Also to note, under international law, firing on a ship is legally considered an act of war on the flag State, not the owner’s State.

So, so far the US has not committed an act of war against India.

[S_Madhukar]

Rubio actually came for rare earth minerals

He sealed the deal of our national wealth

This is what you were talking about?
_________⬇

https://x.com/USAndIndia/status/2065083 ... 20424?s=20

The United States and India signed a bilateral Critical Minerals Framework, marking a milestone in the strategic partnership between the U.S. and India. This sets us on a path toward reliable & resilient mineral supply chains, reinforcing key objectives established by @POTUS
.

And we got CJP as Thank You? Or was it that they deported a useless Dipke to our shores? In my mind I have no doubt our system will bend to the hegemon but I wonder how long his checklist is before we get anything like GE engines etc.
Not to forget that JS and AD have US family members, hope they are able to manage this skillfuly.

[chetak]

Americans are always trigger happy … their cops are also trigger happy what to expect of their frustrated navy crews.. expect more tamasha …
Best is to issue advisory to Indian crews as well. If their owners don’t listen then let them strike abandon ship etc

S_Madhukar ji,


This is a specifically targeted reprisal and is definitely related to India's refusal to allow starlink operations in India

starkink is a major security risk and is being pushed by a huge Indian conglomerate (not adani) with links to the amriki national damaad

the amrikis are upset that India has called it out

check out the major role that starlink plays in the ukr war, all the very deep strikes into russki territories are dependant on starlink generated inputs that guide the drones

many illegal starlink terminals have been confiscated in the NE, but many more are already in country

that culinary institute swine who was recently captured was doing exactly this with the separatists in the NE, he was training them in the use of weaponized drones linked to starlink generated guidance data

[ricky_v]

no red lines, only higher tolerance lines. This too shall pass as one of the forgotten little nuisances in front of the grander scheme.

[A_Gupta]

AI Overview

Indian-owned ships are often registered under "flags of convenience" (e.g., Panama, Liberia, or Guinea-Bissau) instead of the Indian flag to avoid higher domestic taxes, bypass strict national labor laws, and navigate complex international trade zones more flexibly.

Key reasons for this practice include:

Tax Optimization: Under Indian law, ships are considered depreciating assets, and selling an Indian-flagged vessel triggers short-term capital gains tax. Foreign registries offer more favorable corporate tax environments.

Operational Flexibility: The Indian government has regulations on freight rates and commercial destinations. Registering under a foreign flag allows owners more freedom to negotiate terms and trade routes globally.

Manning & Crew Regulations: Indian-flagged ships are restricted in their ability to hire foreign crew members, whereas foreign registries allow shipowners to hire diverse, cost-effective international labor.

The "Sanctions Gray Zone": For owners transporting controversial or embargoed goods (such as oil in restricted zones like the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman), flying foreign or "flag of convenience" registries helps obscure ownership.

While flying a foreign flag gives operators certain commercial and logistical benefits, it also carries significant risks. In geopolitically volatile regions, the flag a ship flies dictates its legal protections and diplomatic standing, meaning foreign-flagged ships rarely enjoy the same level of safety interventions that an Indian-flagged vessel does during naval standoffs or blockades.

[chetak]

The amrikis seem to have hit a fourth Indian crewed ship in the gulf.

There is a pattern to it and it is beyond being a coincidence

[vijayk]

Possibly to intimidate India into accepting Starlink

[SRajesh]

First Bilateral Meet with OM since Feb 2025
After that Pehalgam and Op Sindoor happened
IWT suspended/kept in abeyance/scrapped call what you may
Gulf turmoil and now India ships getting hit
I wonder what joint communique will be all about??
Hmm i wonder if Katora Sharif has wormed his way to the meeting.
Bibi is not going to join OM and the Arabs for signing the deal (if one is reached!!)
I just wonder what Katora S has asked for OM to get from India??
El Niño surely happening and Jihadi will not have Roti to eat, No water either or clean their butts and definitely no electricity to Keep the Ayeshas cool in the Pillboxes
I just hope NaMo doesnt give too many concessions here!!
Historically we have squandered all advantages vis-à-vis Jihadi at the behest of Goras reading us the Ahimsa paat and making a fool us time and again.
I sincerely hope that the AD part of the MAD troika's input is taken rather than baboos who will sell us down the river for Green Cards and cosy sinecure post retirement!!!

[S_Madhukar]

US is being maximalist. We accept one demand they say Muji is my friend then before the next demand they do this shenanigans. I hope we are aware of this tactic.

It is also time to learn and claim Arabian Sea. Start doing missile tests there. Anyway they are using Paki sea borders
. Let there be an awareness in their minds while doing ops that there is another major power in the region

Board some US flagged ships and check in the area.

And “suspend” logistics help to USN till they are in Hormuz. Clearly they are getting help from other ports in the area, they don’t need us

Doubt that RM will do this except Kadi Ninda whatever happened to IN being net security provider in region ? SpaceX launched first Baki satellite, hope they are banned as well

[S_Madhukar]

The amrikis seem to have hit a fourth Indian crewed ship in the gulf.

There is a pattern to it and it is beyond being a coincidence

Seems to extract meeting with PM also

[bala]

There is a pattern to it and it is beyond being a coincidence

Make no mistake that the US Deep State is dictating terms to DJT. The idea is to squeeze supply to both India and China. The US is making sure that they control supply of crude at their terms and also in dollar terms. That is one reason why Indian rupee has been hammered a lot lately. The venezuela crude is at a higher price than ME crude and dollar rates prevail. With ME, India was swapping rupee with nations. Now that leverage is gone. The Cheens were of course lifting crude from Iran at throwaway prices if not free since they gave Iran help in missiles and nuclear. The only silver lining for India is Russia continues its supply and sanctions are being kept in abeyance for the moment.

[Lisa]

https://x.com/sidhant/status/2065795704761553116

Violations of the U.S. blockade and the illicit transport of Iranian oil will not be tolerated: US Secretary of State Rubio to EAM Dr Jaishankar during ystyd talks after killing of Indian sailors

[Lisa]

On a sidebar. Is there anyone here suggesting that Indian crews should disobey legal/illegal instruction given by the Americans?

[Manish_Sharma]

On a sidebar. Is there anyone here suggesting that Indian crews should disobey legal/illegal instruction given by the Americans?

Ji you are here by normalising the role here of "USA as instruction giver" & "Bharatiyas as Obeyers" ?

https://x.com/KanwalSibal/status/206580 ... 93250?s=20

Kanwal Sibal: A very harsh response from Rubio. Implicitly justifying the killing of Indian mariners.

The US is not upholding peace and security in the Strait. Iran may not be innocent but It is the US that is the cause of disturbing peace and security there by its initial attacks on Iran.

India has to tolerate the killing of its mariners because the US will not tolerate the violation of its unilateral blockade.

Not even a pro forma regret at the killing of civilian unarmed nationals of a friendly country.

Rubio has raised the ante. He has snubbed us.

[Rudradev]

Here is a potential response.

The Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman are critical routes of transit through which the Indian economy receives vital inputs (oil/gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and more). This is not something India can make compromises on.

India should license any tanker or cargo ship whose route originates from any port in the Persian gulf (from Shuwaikh up to Bandar Abbas/Jebel Ali) and terminates in any Indian port to fly the Indian flag for the duration of its transit. This should include white fleet, shadow fleet, or any other kind of vessel as long as it's going from a port in the Persian Gulf to a port in India. License to fly the Indian flag is invalid before and expires after any such transit is complete.

Previously, when only Iran was enforcing a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, the involvement of Indian naval assets to escort vessels through the SoH could have been perceived as taking sides in the ongoing war. But now, both sides are enforcing blockades, one in the SoH and the other in the Gulf of Oman. Therefore, India can adopt military measures as needed to preserve its economic interests without signaling that it is taking any side in the US-Iran conflict.

Given the above, India should deploy IN assets out to escort convoys of India-flagged vessels to ensure their safe and unrestricted passage to India.

As a prelude to operationalizing this policy, there should be diplomatic outreach from India to both Iran and the US along the following lines.

IRAN:
1) We have no interest in becoming involved with your current conflict.
2) We do have an interest in preserving maritime trade with you as well as with all your neighbours. We hope you recognize that this is in your interest as well.
3) We are not concerned with the effects on your SoH blockade on shipping bound for any third country. We are concerned with Indian shipping, and that is all.
4) Therefore, kindly cooperate as our naval ships escort cargo and tanker vessels bound for India from Iranian ports as well as ports in your neighbouring countries.
5) It would certainly not be in your interest to interfere with these operations as you have quite enough of a conflict on your plate already.

UNITED STATES:
1) Trump mentioned in March 2026 that other countries must act to secure safe passage for their own critical economic inputs through the Strait of Hormuz.
2) That is exactly what we are doing. We are sending Indian navy escorts to secure critical economic inputs for India, and only India. We have no interest in participating in any international coalition to restore freedom of navigation for everybody, or in interfering with your counter-blockade in the Gulf of Oman as it pertains to any other country.
3) However, we need what we need, and we will deploy any military assets required to ensure that we get it. We are as determined to pursue an India first policy as you are to pursue an America first policy.
4) We strongly suggest you do not interfere with our operations in this regard. It would be a shame if you jeopardize our rapidly improving trade relations and security partnership by pushing a policy that has a direct negative impact on both our economy and our security environment.

This may seem cold blooded, and I am as sorry as anyone else for the families of Indian sailors who were killed while working for foreign employers. But that is not the core interest here. Securing India's sea lanes in India's near abroad is the core national interest. I understand that evoking sympathy for the martyred sailors makes for better news media ratings, but actual policy must be formulated with the core interest in mind; everything else is a distraction.

[Lisa]

Manish_Sharma Ji, there is a reality of sorts. This is an instruction being given by a warship. Operative word is Warship - a vessel designed to fight other warships. What exactly do you think is going to happen when the warship has ORDERS to engage and you are aboard an UNARMED civilian ship?

[Rudradev]

This is why there need to be Indian warships in the picture. Also, Indian LR-LACM batteries operationalized to ready status along the Arabian Sea coast. The USN has become a little too comfortable issuing orders in India's immediate backyard.

[Lisa]

^Are you seriously suggesting that Indian warships attempt to contest space with the US Navy for ships that are not even registered in India? If you intend to say yes, then please tell me what exactly will the Indian Navy do if an Indian Navy warship is attacked?

There is surprisingly no comment or suggestion from anyone for the owners of these ships being told to stand down or cease their attempts to engage the USN.

[Rudradev]

I have outlined in some detail how the registration implications could be handled. Please go through my previous post.

[Lisa]

I have read your post. What I am about to say. is not aimed at you in particular.

There are no rules.

The American are going to do what they want. They are uninterested in anyone's objection or rights. If you contest that space they will act. Period. They have just laid to waste NATO. Does anyone really think they care for India? Ships are going to stop, like it or not. If they do not, the American will attack. International law can take a running jump. There are no rules.

[Rudradev]

International law can take a running jump. There are no rules.

Excellent point. And that is why, in its own immediate neighbourhood, and in its own critical interests, India has to write and enforce its own rules.

You previously asked:

^Are you seriously suggesting that Indian warships attempt to contest space with the US Navy for ships that are not even registered in India? If you intend to say yes, then please tell me what exactly will the Indian Navy do if an Indian Navy warship is attacked?

The "registered in India" part I've already addressed. But I submit that your question as phrased is encumbered by certain other baggage as well.

Firstly, if India-flagged vessels escorted by IN assets en-route to India are being interdicted, then it is the USN contesting space in India's security sphere. Therefore, it is incumbent on India to shape this space in ways that make the answer to your question (what exactly will the Indian Navy do if an Indian Navy warship is attacked) moot.

The proposed response I outlined would be accompanied by intensely stepped up activity by the IN and IAF in the Arabian sea. Increased submarine, surface, and aerial patrols among other things. All to ensure that vessels being escorted by the IN aren't interdicted by pirates or non-state actors, of course.

As a result, all USN vessels from Diego Garcia to Djibouti will be constantly aware that they're being tracked by a network of Indian assets-- on the surface, under the surface, airborne, on shore, and in space. They will never be confronted directly by IN vessels. But they will quickly realize that this is a very different operating environment than say the Caribbean or Eastern Pacific around Venezuela, or even the Persian Gulf at the time the Gerald R Ford received a rather nasty surprise.

It is in this environment that USN commanders will have to make a call whether to force a standoff with an IN-escorted convoy at any point. Yes, theoretically a IN escort at a given position could be confronted and sunk by an overwhelmingly stronger USN interdiction patrol. But retaliation could come from anywhere, against any target, throughout a much wider theatre. The awareness of this capability will always be with them.

The risk calculus therefore substantially increases for the USN, not only in terms of political and diplomatic implications but also military implications of interdicting and engaging an IN-escorted convoy. It could very likely mean an all-out littoral conflict against India, which again, is nothing to undertake lightly (especially in their present situation).

In this situation I expect Trump to behave exactly as he has whenever his bluster has been confronted. Praise India and make it seem as if IN escorts were the plan all along. Call on other countries to follow the Indian example, to also escort their commercial vessels with naval assets so the SoH remains free and open.

[Manish_Sharma]

https://x.com/Dig_raw21/status/2065578739598029142?s=20

US did not fire on their own citizens(Sailor) but on Indian sailors in Hormuz .

A Shadow fleet driven by American sailors attempted to evade U.S. sanctions and move illicit oil. By refusing lawful orders from the U.S. Coast Guard and leading them on a chase across the Atlantic Ocean

-------------------
https://x.com/JaidevJamwal/status/20656 ... 88273?s=20

>One Indian diplomat was arrested in USA over visa fraud and other charges.
Indian babooze revoked most privileges given to American embassy, caused massive long term rift in diplomatic relations and made the news run in media for weeks.

>Russians fraudulently entrapped and caused deaths of dozens of Indian citizens in their war.
All lips sealed.

>USA deliberately fired on civilian ships causing death of 3 Indian citizens and injuries to more. What are our babooze doing now?
Calling American ambassador for chai-biskoot and optics. Indian babooze-neta cabal cares only when their own asses are on fire. Lives of regular citizens and national interests don't matter that much.

[Lisa]

Rudradev Ji, Would you have an issue with the Indian Government ordering Indian ship owners from not attempting to call on Iranian ports?

[williams]

https://www.state.gov/releases/office-o ... shankar-4/

^^^ Official link. I think we need to address this very deftly at the appropriate time. If this is not an Indian flagged vessel then they could have sorted this out privately why would you talk about it with Indian EAM and then announce it in public? I am seeing this with the overall behavior of the US including the way they behaved post Op Sindoor, followed by tariffs and Visas. They are targeting us at every possible forum. This sort of behavior is unwarranted and will be remembered. They will feel the cost for it at some point. Right now escort of Indian flagged ship is a must.

I agree with Rudradev Ji 100%. We need to show we are damn serious about securing our sea lanes.

[SRajesh]

^^ May I ask forum members especially those with more experience in Strategic Deployment and Deterrence.
Why US, especially the DS, is very upset with India??
Please consider these :
1.Induction and Operationalisation of SSBN
2. Near independent FP and EAM in every forum reminding the West and the Rest Your War is Yours and I wont interfere.
3. I buy Oil and secure my energy source
4. Op Sindoor Happened and we have hit soimething significant that no party wants to admit openly
5. NaMo's refusal to visit WH
6. Now SPIRI reporting our N assets have increased and most importantly we have deployed warheads (And i dont think the so called 800km range yada yada about SLBM, they are substantive and deliberately kept vague)
7. Our growing closeness to Maruitius and Chagos and Deigo Garcia
8. Jihadi N counting not raising as npern SPIRI for the first time and not mated ( I just wonder if we have done something to them because they are buried and irreretrievable or something else has happened)
Given the above, maybe the DS feels that India is getting big and may turn dangerous, hence they are not leaving any stone unturned to rub our nose in the dirt. And the sametime they are Desperately Seeking Susan in way (trying to find a effective opposition leader to challenge NaMo) but struglling to find one.
No wonder, NE was set alight and Beedis and Nepalis turned so called Rangila Reforms!!
To give credit toi MAD and EAM, they have countered every one these moves with alacrity and not folded.
I just wonder if the meet is going to be a patch up job and a possible revival of QUAD (just as a sop to fool us and wind the Dragon)
Sorry for the long post, but my question is this : Is US and thereby the DS is worried about N independence and deployment of N heads on active duty??
Do they feel that such acts should have been first approved and actively monitored by them. And since that has not happened they are going about to put us in place!!

[chetak]

Lisa ji,

the ships are sailing under the flag of a third country

They can hire any crew, including Indian passport holders, and no one is holding a gun to the head of these Indian crews to force them to sign on

The owners of the ships tell the ship's captain where to go and what cargo(s) to load and where to deliver those cargo(s)

the owners pay for the fuel, food for the crew, crew salaries, war risk insurance, maintenance, spares, repairs and many other mandatory charges

But ship owners with long term contracts may not have the luxury of refusal to load cargo from eyeraanian and the GCC ports because to break such iron clad contracts is a very expensive proposition

a great many ship owners with alternate options are already avoiding the straits of hormuz and the ports connected with the straits

BTW, if Indian flagged vessels are attacked, it will, by law, be considered as an act of war against India.

The amrikis, so far, have been very careful not to do that

[SRajesh]

^^Chetakji
Also worth noting is :
1. who has insured the Vessel??
2.is it just Marine Cargo & Hull insurance or the whole thing
3. Who is doing the Vessel Chartering and Frieght Brokerage
4. What about the Crew Insurance and who holds the policy
As you know LLyods are foremost or as its called i think Hapag-LLyods in this business.
The shipe may be registered in Timbuktu but who owns it?? and if its a Gora Company why are they resorting to Gun-running (for want of better word) if Unkil says no movements in Hormuz!!
We are complaining about loss of life our Nationals and the US ae saying the ships are resorting to Gun Running !!