SriKumar wrote:abhischekcc wrote:
The test is important because it forces our adversaries' to increase expediture by several orders of magnitude to maintain the same threat level to us. ************
I am wondering though, how does this really help India? Pakistan knows that they cannot wage a conventional war without getting their butts handed to them; and after Kargil they know they cannot win even a 'semi-conventional', deniable war. So now they send their terrorists across the border or activate their cells to blow up trains/people. Pakistan can very well stay with this 'tactic' whether or not India has a missile shield. I don't see this missile shield stopping Pakistan from doing this. What would India do with a missile shield that it would not do now? (I agree it would deter China from threatening a conventional war and any escalation beyond that).
Another point (not new, obviously), the fact that India will have a ballistic missile shield would only encourage them to look for other ways of delivery- high-tech or low tech. Finally, on the topic of kill ratios, is India willing to take a hit of even 1 (or 2) nukes on a major city? Is this a cost India is willing to bear? Under what circumstances? If war is thrust upon India, I'd say yes. I think there may be a Laxman rekha India will not cross (unless public opinion changes in the future).
Well!! whether anyone likes it or not, once a credible ABM or TMD is in place India's policy will and should change. It should become more like the Israeli one. There should be retaliations. We restrain ourselves a lot. But Track II can be used and we MUST tell Pakistan that the restraint will no longer be there.
Since they are a people who LOVE to protect their musharaffs, they will understand when the game has become too dangerous and then they will be FORCED to stop.
The feeling that they can keep sending jihadis must stop.