The physics, politics and myths of fission

[shiv]

I guess everyone on here knows that atoms consist of a central core called a nucleus where the balls of the atom reside. Most atoms have more balls than any human, Pakis included. (The latter statement is debataball)

It so happens that some atoms with lots of balls tend to split apart without provocation into atoms with fewer balls. This is called fission. Each time this happens some energy is released and if you can tap that energy - you can power your toaster with it.

Out of sheer jealousy and spite - some atoms that split apart also spit out a couple of balls that go and hit other atoms and make their balls split apart and release energy for your toaster. If there is a runaway splitting apart of all atoms in a short time you get a nuclear bum and you will be toast along with your bread. However - if you keep traffic policemen to slow down the balls that are being spit out, then you can slow the reaction down to a manageable pace and use the power.

The most commonly used candidate for an atom that splits by itself to produce power is Uranium. Uranium occurs naturally as ore that contains a mixture two cousins of Uranium. One cousin has 235 balls and the other has 238 balls. These are affectionately referred to as U235 and U238.

Of the two cousins - it is U 235 who is trying to break up and get rid of his balls and we need to get him if we need to power our toasters. Unfortunately the bugger is elusive and in Uranium ore you get 99% of Uranium 238 and less than 1% U235.

So you need to use various processes, including Xerokhanism to increase the amount of U235 from less than 1% to about 5% for your nuclear reactor. If you increase the amount of U235 to 90%+ - you can have your bum.

This is what most of the world does. So what is India's problem?

India does not have too much Uranium, and if it wants to import Uranium everyone thinks we need it for bum. But India has a lot of Thorium. Thorium has 232 balls and is called Thorium 232. If Thorium is standing around when Uranium is throwing his balls around, he picks up one extra ball and gets 233 balls. he then becomes a cousin by marriage and is now called Uranium 233. Uranium 233 is as enthusiastic as naturally occurring U235 to get rid of balls and power your toaster.

There are other complexities involved. What does cousin U238 do when cousin U235 is splitting and spitting his balls? He sometimes gets in the way and swallows a ball and gets 239 balls. He is then called Plutonium 239. The name Pu239 is no coincidence because Pu239 is continuously trying Pu-ke out his balls, just like U 235 (and U233). That is why Pu 239 is also good for bum or toaster.

Pu 239 forms within a reactor when the existing U238 gets in the way of ball-breaking U235. When the reactor fuel is spent - the Pu 239 can be extracted for bum or for "otherwise purpose" to paraphrase my fizzics teacher. If you design your reactor right (as the DAE in India probably have done) - you can get one heckuva lot of Pu out of your reactor.

So what is India's "grand plan" that has been going on since 1960 and is still going on and on onlee?

India said in 1960 that we would use thorium to produce power.

How?

First you need to convert Thorium232 to U 233

This has to be done in 3 stages - lasting several Kaveris (a Kaveri is a unit of time lasting decades) and this is the crux of Indian "Fast Breeder Reactor" (FBR) program. Note that the term "Fast" does not mean that the reactor is fast or that the process is fast. It only means that "Fast" Neutrons are needed and used to convert Thorium to U233. It's always the fast guys that get the gals right?

In the first stage a whole lot of Plutonium is extracted from spent Uranium fuel.

In the second stage, that Plutonium is packed with Thorium in a reactor that powers your toaster. And while your toaster is being powered - the Thorium232 is picking up Plutonium's balls and becoming U233. India is now in stage 2

When enough U233 collects you then pack it with more thorium and use it in a reactor, The reactor powers your toaster, and the Thorium232 picks up U233's extra balls and forms even more U233 that you can use for future reactors. This will be stage 3 of India's Fast Breeder Reactor program.

So do you see the link now?

First stage - use up enriched natural Uranium to make Plutonium. Next stage use the Plutonium to create Uranium from Thorium. Third stage used the newly created Uranium to power a reactor AND make even more Uranium (from Thorium). The "fast neutrons" "breed" Uranium from Thorium in the reactor.

None of this should ever come under existing safeguards. Nobody else in the world is doing it and no one else really has a clue. Not even France. Not the US. Nobody has come as far as India down this route and there is nothing to suggest that it will not continue.

But recall that the FBR program is related to existing reactors in that the first and second stages use Plutonium created in reactors that use mined Uranium.

It turns out that you can play with reactor settings to create more Plutonium or less Plutonium depending on how much Plutonium you want. If you put in a lot of "policemen" to slow the neutrons, you get less Pu, and if you allow a lot more "fast neutrons" you get more Pu. The Pu also adds to powering your toaster - and you can fiddle with what you do to reduce the PU that is used up in this.

India may already have a whole lot of Plutonium stored up for this FBR plan, and once it starts creating Uranium - the need for this Plutonium will be reduced. Plutonium has a half life of 24000 years - and that is many Kaveris.

But if the US or any other entity supply India with Uranium for power reactors - they have to get their knickers in a twist because that Uranium will produce a whole lot of Plutonium. That is at least part of all the worries that people have about giving India Uranium.

It is possible that many of the worries expressed by people on here that "India needs 2000 warheads or 4000 warheads" may actually be a needless and naive diversion from real issues. With reports of many tons of Pu available to India and the fact that we have a unique process to isolate Tritium means that we can have more warheads carrying hydrogen bombs than we have the means to deliver. That is apart from the fact that the usage rate of nuclear warheads in the last 60 years is 2 used out of about 60 or 70,000 built (0.003%). Even HF 24s saw more action than that.

The idea that "India needs more bomb making material" could be a naive idea held both by BRF members and US senators (or other foreign entities).

India needs to speed up the rate at which it can build power plants to supply power to a billion plus people. All talk of hundreds of warheads and selling the country etc may possibly be naive and a complete deviation from real issues.

Remember the main actors in this Bum Soap Opera

1) Uranium 235 (occurs in nature - and used in bum)
2) Uranium 238 (occurs in nature)
3) Plutonium 239 (created in reactors using a mixture of U235 and U238 and used in bum)
4) Thorium 232 (occurs in high levels among Mallus)
5) Uranium 233 (created in FBRs)

[Nayak]

Wow, Thanks Shiv.

Something for us NON-SCIENCE guys (and babettes) to chew on.

[vsudhir]

Thanks Doc,

Was hajaar enlightening and all. For the first time, me moved beyond understanding to the over-standing stage, if i may say so

Expect a a lot of phoren lurking around this page (in addition to desi lurking) to understand (over-stand?) what the fuss is all about.

P.S.:
In this running soap opera, who's the bahu and who's the saans? me guess is its U233 and U238 respectively.

[aditya]

...to understand what the fuss is all about.

You mean, what the fiss is about.

[williams]

Is it possible to use u233 to create a bum??

[Alok_N]

Is it possible to use u233 to create a bum??

yes, but it is a painindabutt due to u232 presense which ia a gamma emitter and heats up any material you are working with ... the evil cousin unlike the benign u238 ...

in any case, it has a critical mass larger than pu239, so why bother?

[Shwetank]

very englightening, although with the terminology used it can be understood by any terrirists with ease now.

oh and what's the last part about thorium being found in mallus? does it mean it's in that region or actually INside mallus

[Alok_N]

does it mean it's in that region or actually INside mallus

only in those mallus who eat too much Ulli Thoriyal

[Nandu]

very englightening, although with the terminology used it can be understood by any terrirists with ease now.

oh and what's the last part about thorium being found in mallus? does it mean it's in that region or actually INside mallus

Region. The dark sands of Kerala's beaches is full of Thorium.

[vsudhir]

Also, exactly what % of the world's thorium supply is found in india? have heard estimates varying from 1/3 to 2/3

[saip]

World thorium resources
(economically extractable):

Country Reserves (tonnes)
Australia 300 000
India 290 000
Norway 170 000
USA 160 000
Canada 100 000
South Africa 35 000
Brazil 16 000
Other countries 95 000
World total 1 200 000


source: US Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 1999.

[Mort Walker]

I guess the question is, how long will it be until India has Th232 power reactors? 10 yrs, 20 yrs?

Until then the BRF jingos can develop a matter/anti-matter bum for the DOO deathstar.

[Gerard]

Actually the critical mass of U233 is quite close to Pu239 (unlike the case with U235).

U233 pits need to be 'clean'. They require additional shielding and cooling (they produce 100W as opposed to 15W for a Pu239 pit).

Separation of U232 isn't possible with a centrifuge cascade so cleaning of the U233 would have to be done with Laser enrichment - AVLIS or MLIS.

U-232 and the Proliferation-Resistance of U-233 in Spent Fuel
By Jungmin Kang and Frank N.von Hippel

http://www.princeton.edu/~globsec/publi ... _1kang.pdf

[quote]The fast critical mass of U-233 is almost identical to
that for Pu-239 and the spontaneous fission rate is much lower, reducing to negligible levels the problem of a spontaneous fission neutron prematurely initiating the chain reaction -- even in a “gun-typeâ€

[Alok_N]

Actually the critical mass of a U233 is quite close to Pu239 (unlike the case with U235).

thanks ... that paper lists bare critical masses as pu239 (7.5 Kg), u233 (8.4 Kg) and u235 (21 Kg) ...

I was going by the spontaneous fission rate which is similar to U235 ... one Kg of U233 will producs only 0.5 neutrons/sec ... compare that to 24,000 neutrons/sec/Kg of Pu239 ...

it is ideal for a JDAM ...

[neutron detection is one the ways to catch a JDAM]

[Arun_S]

Re JDAM detection. Actually a neutron source (lamp) along with an array of neutron detector will be very discriminative of JDAM core. A.k.a A deep-blue lamp and CCD camara pair searching for flouroscent thief.

[hnair]

does it mean it's in that region or actually INside mallus

only in those mallus who eat too much Ulli Thoriyal

It is spelled "Ulli Theeyal" and it takes a number of Cauverys in dog years to cook. "Shrimp Theeyal" also causes Mallu counters to click furiously.

Whenever one goes by NH47 near the city of Kollam (Chavara is the actual locality) there is this big-ass plant of the Indian Rare Earths Corporation. I remember being told by a certain gentleman from BARC that "one day we will be frying them pellets in a 'naadan' Dragon". (naadan=local in mallu). That was a long long time ago. Other than the experimental IGCAR one, are we anywhere close to having 500 MW+ reactors?

Also knowing it is Kerala, the DAE planners need to factor in the heat from the Left fulminates on the ground, who are triggered easily by the Karats of the world. One already hears about how "Kerala's mineral sands are being mined by exploitative foreign firms" nonsense a lot. Right now the situation is kind of managed by the local leaders of both fronts. However if the sands provide energy independance, Beijing will be tempted to let loose a flood of sneaky grants/fellowships for these leaders and their families.

So till that time when the reactors fireup, we mallus are forlornly fabricating those Petromax lantern mantles from the thorium. Not cool

[Alok_N]

only in those mallus who eat too much Ulli Thoriyal

It is spelled "Ulli Theeyal"

I know ... the food and wine thread is very educational ... I followed the sambhar wars in lurk mode ...

I was taking liberties with that question from Shwetank that seemed almost serious ... apologies to all mallus ...

btw, I believe in Bengal "Thor" is banana ... now bongs can be activated ... apologies for off-topic stuff ...

Other than the experimental IGCAR one, are we anywhere close to having 500 MW+ reactors?

the program has been delayed mostly because dae boss log have been stockpiling pu that goes boom ... once the funding is diverted towards thorium, progress will be made on that front ... read Arun_S analysis posted in the nuke thread ...

[ArunK]

Up

[deWalker]

India needs to speed up the rate at which it can build power plants to supply power to a billion plus people. All talk of hundreds of warheads and selling the country etc may possibly be naive and a complete deviation from real issues.

Indeed, this is the key - building power plants that can bring light (and employment, and education, and prosperity) to rural India, outside the miserable influence of the SEB's, is the key to the long-term rise of opportunity and wealth. Keying on the weaponry aspects only (which are important) neglects the opportunity cost of not building these power sources.

There is still a big hurdle for me, which is the potential arbitrariness of the US in denying us fuel for the civilian plants for some unrelated difference - Iran for example. If we integrate these plants into our economy, and then the fuel stops coming, that could bring the grand plan to it's knees.

D/

[milindc]

.... that could bring the grand plan to it's knees.

All the more reason to have Agni 3+ and horde credible stock of Pu...
Why do you assume that 10 years from now, we are just going to keep quiet and not react if the fuel supply is stopped.

The whole Indian ocean is going to come to stand still, if Elephant is being starved...

[Bade]

The standard butter or guns debate. Well to use the anecdote Alok_N quoted in another thread, need to make the country worth defending first.
So power, power and more power before bums, bums and more bums.

[shiv]

.... that could bring the grand plan to it's knees.

All the more reason to have Agni 3+ and horde credible stock of Pu...
Why do you assume that 10 years from now, we are just going to keep quiet and not react if the fuel supply is stopped.

How much Pu do we have stockplied?

How much more do we need for weapons?

How much is "enough"?

Exactly what/how many nuclear weapons have ensured that countries get scared enough to export their goods to other countries that hold those weapons?

Since Pu can be used for powering toasters, the greater our stockpile - the greater the incentive for unkil and others to say "Bugger off - you can use your weapons Pu for power"

Sholud we stockpile 1000 nukes and say "OK that is enough?". Or do we need 4000? Or 20,000?

Are there any lessons to learn from history? How many weapons were enough for the Japanese? How many for the USSR?

[Bade]

If one goes for an estimate for city buster type devices in the arsenal then we need around 3 times the number of cities in the world one would like to target to give a safe margin. Since in all of the developed world cities will end up with 70-80% of the population this would be a good enough deterrent.

But if your weapons are the puny subkiloton ones meant for use for a localized war theatre then might need those in much larger numbers, since they are going to be even more widely dispersed thoughout the various bases for redundancy. The number here would depend on strategies used by enemy powers and would need extensive modeling of various scenarios.

[shiv]

If one goes for an estimate for city buster type devices in the arsenal then we need around 3 times the number of cities in the world one would like to target to give a safe margin. Since in all of the developed world cities will end up with 70-80% of the population this would be a good enough deterrent.

Absolutely.

What are we "deterring" by threatening the whole world?

Would the US be more deterred by 200 nukes aimed at 200 US cities than 5 nukes aimed at 5 cities?

Would an insane leader be threatened at all by any number of nukes if their use brought the world economy to a grinding halt? What would he care - as long as he was pulling the world down with him?

[milindc]

All the more reason to have Agni 3+ and horde credible stock of Pu...
Why do you assume that 10 years from now, we are just going to keep quiet and not react if the fuel supply is stopped.

How much Pu do we have stockplied?

How much more do we need for weapons?

How much is "enough"?

Exactly what/how many nuclear weapons have ensured that countries get scared enough to export their goods to other countries that hold those weapons?

Since Pu can be used for powering toasters, the greater our stockpile - the greater the incentive for unkil and others to say "Bugger off - you can use your weapons Pu for power"

Sholud we stockpile 1000 nukes and say "OK that is enough?". Or do we need 4000? Or 20,000?

Are there any lessons to learn from history? How many weapons were enough for the Japanese? How many for the USSR?

Shiv,
I listed credible horde of Pu, what credible is up for interpretation and I leave that to GOI's analyst community. I'm in no position to come up with that number.

The reason I commented is that , somehow, folks against the nuclear deal , state that after X years down the line after investing Y billions in building power reactors that produce Z% of our electricity requirements, US and others can simply bring our economy to knees whenever they want...

I have listed deWalker's complete quote on this....

I'm trying to agrue that it's not simple. With our current 9+% economic growth... and a credible deterence, we can also bring the world economic activity to halt..if anyone tries to do that.

[Bade]

Would the US be more deterred by 200 nukes aimed at 200 US cities than 5 nukes aimed at 5 cities?

The minimalist approach exposes one to a pre-emptive cleanup strike. So 5 is too low. So it has to be 3X100 for US cities + 3x100 for china + 3x100 for old oirope. Very zimble number only of ~ 1000 bums each of which can create havoc of 6.0 scale earthquake and more.

What are we "deterring" by threatening the whole world?

If one does use the bum option against any nation then it is even more necessary to make sure that the rest of the world does not gang up on you to defang you for good. So need the extra insurance to strut ones bums as well as use them if need be.

[Alok_N]

Bade,

1000 bombs is an easier problem than the requisite number of delivery systems for such far flung places ...

that's where the focus should be ... nuclear maal is there ... the raakets need to be developed, produced and deployed ...

[Alok_N]

So it has to be 3X100 for US cities + 3x100 for china + 3x100 for old oirope.

btw, interesting to note that our diyar neighbor needs none ... poo is enough for them, no pu required ...

[Arun_S]

My Afghan double agent just passed this message for you.

Bade mian,
Aadaab Arz Hai.
Why such disdain of the Arabic land mass? As if we do not exist. At least repay with interest for all the nuisance & pain? Pls set aside a reservation quota of 100 for the Naacheez;

Aur zanaab kam se kam bada Zalzala to hona hee chahiye. Hamain badaa wala chahiya, kam se kam Paki par jo istamal kiya us-se badaa; Nahin to to kya izzat reah jayegee, jub duniya ki taareekh likhee jayegi.

-Abu-bakr Wahaab-el musharraf Institute.

[shiv]

The reason I commented is that , somehow, folks against the nuclear deal , state that after X years down the line after investing Y billions in building power reactors that produce Z% of our electricity requirements, US and others can simply bring our economy to knees whenever they want...

This is currently untrue.

Only the US China and Russia can come anywhere near doing this by lobbing 200 nukes on India.

But I find that this whole nuke deal issue has ended up being a "torn shirt vs open fly argument" in which forum members and others are unwilling to talk about negotiating a deal with the US because

1) The US is all powerful and will always checkmate India

2)The US will always reserve a method to bring India to her knees

3) Indian leaders are out to sell India

4) The US has the capability to paralyse India or get someone else to paralyse India and therefore we must not talk or act about accelerating growth beyond their current hobbled levels (we are quite happy with 7+ percent a year for 5 years) until we have the ability to bring the US and China to their knees with nuclear weapons.

To me, the thought processes that spark such arguments sound like those of an insecure enslaved people - but that is my opinion.

We are after all only getting into negotiation. We have come this far with everyone believing that points 1 to 4 above are true. Can we not step outside this box for a while and think what could happen if even one of those four points was NOT true?

We do seem to have the mentality of a dog that does not realize that it is no longer chained.

[ldev]

[ So it has to be 3X100 for US cities + 3x100 for china + 3x100 for old oirope.

You forgot the large continent of Africa. And what about the Arabs whose idealogy has caused India so much grief? And while you are at it, you should not forget the Japanese either. Maybe they will regain some of their imperial ambition and wish to remarch onto Eastern India. And you must have a reserve of bums in place in case some of the remmnants of these places escape to Antartica.

[Bade]

ldev, these quick and dirty estimate is for the short term onlee, next 20-30 years threat levels, no ? Beyond 2030 all can be revised upward. Yes, Japan can be formidable within this span but wont be a bigger player on its own, part of a US-Aus bloc. Give and take a few more cities...the extra hundred within the hajjar maal should take care of the outbackers too.

[ldev]

To me, the thought processes that spark such arguments sound like those of an insecure enslaved people - but that is my opinion.....

.....We do seem to have the mentality of a dog that does not realize that it is no longer chained.

Very true Shiv. But happily I have to say that the actual people of India that I meet when I visit the *old country* have a very different *can do* attitude especially those in business and industry that I meet - and its a dramatic positive difference especially in the last 5 years. They are ready to take on the world and are brimming with self confidence and their ability to slug it out toe to toe with anyone, individually and as a country. That is in stark contrast with some of the *we are in this hole in the ground and the whole world is our enemy* kind of siege mentality one sees often on BRF. I wonder why? Is is that a particular kind of individual is drawn to becoming an armchair warrior - one who revels in typing out their deepest fears and insecurities behind the annonymity of a forum name and a keyboard? But hey, you are the piskological expert - so I leave the conclusions to you

[Bade]

nuclear maal is there ... the raakets need to be developed, produced and deployed ...

or is raakeet development just pysops too...media disinformation as part of defence ministry managers...

[rocky]

When you have the ability and means to wipe out planet earth many times over, you attain super-powerdom. Otherwise you are just a nuke power.

Does India want to be a super-power? Doesn't seem possible in my lifetime atleast, but this doesn't mean we should constrain our future generations to come into tight situation.

The circumstances and/or pussyfooting of the ruling powers in India in the 60s locked us into this current situation where we have to beg to others to be able to generate power with our own money, and at the same time guard our own safety and existence with our own money.

At the same time, locking a significant amount of fissile material into nuclear weapons ready-to-deliver isn't exactly economically smart either.

The best bet is to have fissile weapons grade plutonium readily available at our disposal for fabrication into nukes; and yet such enough economic juice out of it through power generation.

This is where the FBR is our trump card. It allows us to not completely commit our entire fissile inventory exclusively to power generation or exclusively to weapons fabrication.

[NRao]

What am I missing.

Nukes were supposed to be Chicom centric at best. And, IMHO, the capping of Indian nukes are also Chicom centric. Of course, Chicom means without a doubt that it includes her satellites - no one should be confused about that.

Outside of that nukes need not be pointed anywhere else. Specially if the rest (NAPs included) understand this math, why point anywhere?

From what (little?) I have read so far, it seems that the constraining factor is a viable delivery system. If so, we just need to wait till early 2007.

BTW, IF other nations supply Uranium (legally I may add) what happens to the end product? Since none of them want this to be routed to making nukes - understandably - what would they want to do with it? The assumption is that they do not want us to reprocess.

Secondly, this math - how come the rest of the world does not know? And, if they do, why would they pretend that they do not know?

(I think I can understand why Indians are faking it - Alok had once before alluded to it - I think.)

[Theo_Fidel]

Can I point out the advantage of a multiple warhead vehicle. Say with 12-15 warheads each.

About 20 such vehicles would be enough for any eventuality.

Also a few tactical nukes for Mad Hatter next door.

I've heard about this Thorium thing forever. But seriously a lot of very smart people tried to make it work in the US and Russia. Never got a productive system going and got shut down in the 50's & 60's. Why do our scientists thing they have this thing crack. They havn't go a working system after all.

[deWalker]

But I find that this whole nuke deal issue has ended up being a "torn shirt vs open fly argument" in which forum members and others are unwilling to talk about negotiating a deal with the US because

Shiv,

I think you and I are on the same side of this debate, i.e. no amount of Pu backup can guarantee a smooth funcitoning of the civil plants: however, the negotiations that you recommend are only as useful as the reliability of the partner: the US has not always proven to be a Boy Scout in such matters.

Perhaps the key to the whole thing is to use the US agreement as a lever to strike similar deals with others like Australia, France and Russia: so that even if the US support evaporates, then we have successfully balanced risk with a large number of other supplier states. The key to long-term success in such risky endeavors is to spread risk. I hope the folks in South Block (or is it North?) are seriously considering such a path.

D/

[Raju]

nuclear maal is there ... the raakets need to be developed, produced and deployed ...

or is raakeet development just pysops too...media disinformation as part of defence ministry managers...

it could very well be psy-ops !

[milindc]

I've heard about this Thorium thing forever. But seriously a lot of very smart people tried to make it work in the US and Russia. Never got a productive system going and got shut down in the 50's & 60's. Why do our scientists thing they have this thing crack. They havn't go a working system after all.

First point, need
US and Russia had and have access to cheap Uranium, we don't and we have been slogging at it for last 25 years in isolation.

We developed 500MW FBR tech as well in isolation , now what makes you think they will not crack it.

Article below is not archived

HindustanTimes.com
Indian reactors gear up for a safer future

Reshma Patil

Mumbai, December 23, 2006

Inside the high-security Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) off Mumbai’s northern fringe, nuclear scientists are designing next-generation nuclear reactors with a target lifespan of 100 years. Apsara, the oldest research reactor, turned 50 this year and reactors worldwide usually survive 40 to 60 years.

They are also currently trying to convince atomic regulatory experts that a prototype 300 MW reactor — under design since the ’90s — can be operated, for the first time, without the mandatory protective barrier of a 1.6-km no-man’s land or radiation exclusion zone.

The site search and safety review for the prototype are currently going on.

“A 100-year lifespan is one of our reactor design objectives. It is achievable,â€