enqyoob wrote:Returning to your nuke nude hypothesis, I would like to see the reasoning on which it is based.
Ha! Unlike Pashtuns that may or may not have been beaten in the past, the nook-nood certainty is, well, 450% certain. Pls kindly google "Has Pakistan Lost its Nuclear Weapons?" With proof like that, how can I fail to believe that hypothesis?
I went through that
article. While it is interesting, it is far from convincing.
When you think of all the ****DEMONSTRABLE** truths since that time (forget all the nonsense articles on the dire threat of Pak new clear detergent etc that come out every week), you will see that the evidence cited in that article has been vastly reinforced since 2002. Consider:
1. US/India nuke deal
If the US is keen on signing this nuclear deal with India, it is doing so because it is desperate to create allies in a region where it is widely despised and not trusted.
The US has lost its friends in Russia. It is afraid of China and its future moves in the Pacific. The Saudis and Gulf states, while being nominally friendly to the US, are increasingly seen as not as reliable, and in any case, do not possess the technical, populational and military muscle. In any case, their populations are extremely hostile to the US. Israel is too far away to be of much use. More problematically, Pakistan is finally being seen as an old ally that is a part of a problem rather than a solution.
The US leadership instinctively does not like India. But it has no choice. I remember reading that nuclear deal idea was floated by us initially in discussions with the US (the Singh-Talbott discussions).
2. Lack of real US concern about the chaos in TSP. Put urself in the position of US ppl charged with the security of the CONUS, where they really take things seriously, unlike the security of Eyerakis etc. which they leave to neocon nuts and foggy bottom clueless types to develop. Would YOU sit back HOPING that TSP's nukes don't get slipped to someone willing to kill AmirKhans? This far worse than smoking in bed, which, as they say, may result in:
the ashes falling on the floor may be ur own
So there is no way that Dubya or his Pentagon commanders are going to take that sort of chance. Remember what they did to Eyerak on the **CLAIM*** that Saddam **MAY** have WMD. In TSP, there is absolutely no chance that the nuke "scientists" WON'T leak the stuff to the anti-AmirKhani suicide types.
It is refreshing to discuss things with someone with such a sunny outlook on life
I think that you are giving way too much credit to the US leadership. Do not forget that it is the same leadership that has led the US into its worst ever military and strategic misadventure (Iraq). While the doomed Iraq project might currently have only necocons as its starry eyed supporters, the fact of the matter is that this US leadership spurned a geopolitics changing offer from Iran soon after the Iraq invasion which would have changed things completely.
The reason why Americans appear to be relatively unconcerned is purely PR - they, being stuck in the endless quicksand that is Iraq, simply do not have the boots on the ground to take over Paki nukes if things go tits up. All they can do is to lie to their own people and pretend that things are under control. Neither lies nor pretense are strangers to US admininstrations in general and this one in particular.
It is the same game that Reagan, Bush Sr. and Clinton played when Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons - lie through their teeth until the truth blows up in Chagai hills.
With justifiable reason, US leaders think that their voters are stupid (what can you expect from a populace brought up on a steady diet of fairy tales and lost dog, found girl stories from CNN or Fox ?) and they can lie until some future President has to clean up the mess by doling out more borrowed dollars.
Where do you think the Pukis get their innate "tactical brilliance" from ? It is a result of far too many late night pegs with their pals in the US.
It is the same attitude that makes US leadership borrow from its kids and grandkids. Postpone the problem to tomorrow or next week is the prime directive of the way the US government works. The last US President to actually pay down the US debt was Andrew Jackson, way back in the 1820s. Think about it.
3. Release of F-16s after all these years. Remember, the reason why they stopped the F-16 deal was that they were banned under US law from sending nuclear-capable delivery systems to places that had nukes.
The reason for selling F-16 is the same self-delusion that has characterized US relations with Pakistan for the past 60 years. It runs like this :
"Holy shit, we need Pakistan to do our dirty work. Pakistan is not a very nice country but what the heck, I will pretend that it is ("Frontline state", "major non-NATO ally", "bulwark against terrorism"). Ahhh, this alternate reality is so niiice ! Its so real. What ? That think tank fellow says things are bad in Pakistan ? Nah. Tell him to listen closely to the White House press secretary and watch CNN or Fox (who cares if he is a liberal or a conservative as long he is in this alternate reality with me ?). <a few years pass and a few press secretaries later> Pakistan is a delicate situation but we must remember what a difficult position than President Gola#3478 is in. We think he deserves our support. <a few years pass and there is a new President>. The ******** messed it up for me. Holy shit, we need Pakistan to do our dirty work. ..."
There have been plenty of pointers from the **censored** TSP media that also confirm that the top opposition leaders are pretty sure they have no golas. But do the GOOGLE search and think about the evidence yourself. This is a key ingredient in figuring out the tamasha in TSP.
I have and find it utterly unconvincing. I could be wrong, but I think that the nukes are there, and there are many officially relaxed people in Washington who are not sleeping too well at night.
