Nuclear Discussion - Nukkad Thread: 13 Apr 2008

[SaiK]

oops!.. I thought there are only subtle nuances between disagreements. Now its world and space apart!. .

Lets take China for example.. If they want it certain way.. they just do it., no matter whatever agreement they sign. Why not consider China as role model, and where it applies. Of course it does not apply for many cases (OT).

Signing the deal is all about the what?, we are still in analysis that just describes the "what" is the problem? now, we are giving up our efforts, and not getting into design of the deal, ie. "how" it is going to solve problems. This is the problemo with babooze.. they are only interested in the whats, as election banner statements.

[Katare]

And Unkil is going to sit by and watch it being undercut so India can buy from non-US companies after all the mid nght oil burnt by Nickie & Co. Nice try Ram NarayanJi, in theory you may be right, but in the real world of the US empire, Unkil is rule maker, Unkil is the rule breaker, Unkil is the judge, Unkil is the jury, Unkil is a saint when he wants to be, and a thug when need be ... . And Unkil will bring to bear all these attributes of his with full fury once MMS signs the dotted line.

What else can unckil do? besides competitive bidding and full guarantee of viability (political and economic) there is no way any bank will finance the project worth billions of dollars.

The whole problem is this assumption that unkil can arm twist everyone and all without any legal basis or reason to any nation. India is not a NK or Iran we are a democratic nation of a billion people with great future and past with huge worldwide support. We must learn to realize and use that advantage.

Also we can always backtrack (terminating the treaty with US, NSG or any other nation) sighting any violation.

There is huge economic and political cost for US to play spoil sport

It is in US/western economic interest to ease pressure on fossil fuel by promoting cleaner nuclear energy especially in India and China

The biggest advantage of the deal comes from India coming out of the non-nuclear tech-denial dog house that it has been put into since Pok-1.

Just last week my company trained me (again) on "global technology control" laws of United States. The course was very basic and meant to just sensitized scientists (or lab rats as marketing folks like to call us) to ask legal dept's help when getting in a situation where they are working with international clients/subsidiaries. The one thing that struck me most was that numerous examples that the online course used had sentences like ".....when dealing with countries such as Iran, China, Pakistan, North Korea and India........". We have nothing in common with those countries except the nuclear monkey. We do not belong in that club and must get out of it if possible and cost is reasonable. We should be clubbed with countries like Japan, SK, Aus, Brazil and EU where will of citizens of their respective countries is supreme.


I don't want to see an Indian getting arrested for shipping couple IC chips to India or domestic companies going great lengths to develop $100 part for $10Million for a total production run of 100 parts spread over a decade.

Although I see a lot of people are worried about a lot of things in Hyde act and even in 123 agreement which worries me to no end think what if they were right and I was wrong?

But in any case I don't beleive that this is a dead end leading to the house of dark loard in mordor with gates behind us completely shuts once we enter.

[Raju]

The one thing that struck me most was that numerous examples that the online course used had sentences like ".....when dealing with countries such as Iran, China, Pakistan, North Korea and India........".

they didn't mention Israel ?

[SaiK]

Raju, wake up. you can't fix Israel to be a muslim country.

[Katare]

Arun,
Calling duly elected Prime Minster of India a rat is unbecoming of a gentleman BRFite. While couple of admins are cautioning against name calling you as an admin is promoting/encouraging name calling.

It seems like time for


IB4TL

[Raju]

China, North Korea are muslim countries ?

Countries names that are being mentioned do not necessarily align with US worldview. That is the reason for their names being singled out, and not observance of rules.

[satyarthi]

Katare,

That was a good post.

But all the pointers suggest that India's position wrt world and US will improve over the next few years. so what if we can't gt a "deal" with a new democrat dominated US presidency. Why can't we wait few more years when the incentives for US and the west to co-opt India will be even more stronger?

Despite all the talk of India behaving like a strong country, pointers are not very reassuring. India IS a strong country but hardly behaves as one. Even though we may say that in future India can walk away when needed, do you seriously expect a MMS type personality to have that kind of nerve. Even Vajpayee was accused of, and rightly so, of wobbly knees. Only strong leader able to comprehend AND play the international realpolitic was Indira Gandhi and to some extent Rao. The present ruling combine is most weak kneed dispensation we have had so far.

The present leadership doesn't inspire confidence. Just yesterday two of the most senior leaders of Congress, Arjun Singh and Pranab Mukherjee were competing to kiss crown prince Rahul Gandhi's bottom cheeks and were mildly rebuked by the United Queendom of India. If such worthies can see no harm in that despicable spectacle they made of themselves, why should we expect them to be able to do otherwise for India? A person who can't respect himself enough can not respect anything else, let alone the country.

Can anyone point to anything done by this government that can be hailed as a nationalist stance? On the other hand we all know MMS' peacenik tendencies.

The present bunch has failed to convince the country of what they are up to. And despite all possible good arguments that can be proffered for the deal, this one bothers people the most.

IMHO we can wait, till a next Bush clone ascends to presidency in USA. skies won't fall in the next 5 years. In fact as argued so convincingly by others, India's position will be even stronger then.

[ShauryaT]

Arun,
Calling duly elected Prime Minster of India a rat is unbecoming of a gentleman BRFite. While couple of admins are cautioning against name calling you as an admin is promoting/encouraging name calling.

It seems like time for


IB4TL

Boooo! What next, ban RK Laxman cartoons in the TOI!

There is a fine line between criticising Government officials and using adjectives such as a (traitor, without substantiation). Articualting a message through analogies of a Mouse and a Lion to personalities, should be par for the course unless BRF intends to be a "Whatever my Governemnt does" is fine and Any one who criticises the Government or its head, is BRF's enemy!

Let us grow up, shall we!

[SaiK]

Raju, its all how Unkill views the world. If the thinks Texas is a muslim country so be it!. if he thinks India is a christian country, he will make it so!. you see where you get by power of economics and weapons can get to.

BTW, I am asking basic questions here. Why are people so inflamed about discussing the realities here?

[Katare]

China, North Korea are muslim countries ?

Countries names that are being mentioned do not necessarily align with US worldview. That is the reason for their names being singled out, and not observance of rules.

No Israel, they haven’t openly tested and none of the US president has any desire to antagonize Jews lobby in congress.

We have been living in a looser club of despotic/authoritarian countries led by ruthless thug(s) and juntas just because Pundit JLN didn't test the devise in time.

India having nukes doesn't really radically change US security threat analysis, most worrying factor for them is our nuke position and defiance (which is legal and justified) weakens the NPT/CTBT regime which is so central to US/western and even global security. Once they help us attain some sort of legal status among the nations of the world it becomes much more easier for them to focus on real trouble Childs and tin-pot dictators and Juntas.

[SaiK]

Exactly, the culture matters. With modern western thoughts, its all about being a sinner or saved type(binary). There is nothing called "analog values" applied for defiance of treaties.

Bottomline (since we are in sinners club, with a built in analog values), India is only an irritation for the biggies and their treaties. So, why certain Indians are so much behaving immature, for extending this deal such that the irrirations are cleared in a gradual setup.

hyde-unhyde cycle is required to get there.. and in the meanwhile, we are also equally thoriumized.

[Raju]

No Israel, they haven’t openly tested and none of the US president has any desire to antagonize Jews lobby in congress.

So wherever it is convenient for them, they can make exceptions without countries being bound in a legal framework. Extend the same facility for India as well, if they are so concerned on focusing on 'real trouble makers'.

After all this is the same country that framed evidence to attack and invade a sovereign nation. Nothing should be beyond realm of possiblity for them. bas thoda dil rakho aur kaam ho jayega.

India having nukes doesn't really radically change US security threat analysis,

that is your perception.

[SaiK]

ramana, thanks and good pointers. I agree on the RC's decision to present the case of scalable TNs (s1).. and I am still wondering if it was BR that was more interested in TN rather the shakti team themselves, as we are racing to fill our missile sections with various types of weapon configurations [imaginary budget] . But, believe me, BR is quite a deterrent for BiRadhers!

My point is, are we over blowing what RC said, and interpreting to a better deterrent presentations [just to cr@p the hell out of pakis?]. I am sure, defence wise, its unwise. I am seeing the truth somewhere in between, hence we have to agree with Arun says, that fizzle could have happened [my understanding of things work from fusion-fission].

Even logically agreeing that our TN did was configured to a lower scaled down version, there is no data that said, it was a failure from the perspective of explosion itself, but only the yield being reduced [based on the seismics]. Hence, the doubts are there as to if

1. the s1 was designed for that x yield.
2. yield was not obtained due to some issues.

let say, if we take positives from the both these arguments, that is, it is a scaled down TN, and yield was not up to what we expected, we still need to rework on the tests again.

I am only basing on discussions here in BR and other places. There is no emphatic answers. I am not a physics biggie as well, but have some fundamentals to understand to retain how things work, but poor memory and applications.

I wish to read some BR paper on the various analysis from Arun et al, and make a layman's perspective of things, who understand logic. There is nothing wrong is saying, ours need more work. nobody is perfect.