PRC Political News & Discussions

[ramana]

What are the names of PRC officials involved in the post quake relief ops? Could be future leaders. Also whats the PLA response to the damage?

[Sanjay M]

CHINA'S CLASS DIVIDE
Xenophobic nationalists?
By Daniel A. Bell
Published: May 21, 2008

[Sanjay M]

China blocks Hindus from traditional pilgrimage to Tibet
By Heather Timmons and Hari Kumar
Published: May 21, 2008

[vsudhir]

3 nuclear facilities under rubble, 12 inaccessible in China

[Karan Dixit]

Couples whose only child was killed, severely injured or disabled in the quake can get a certificate allowing them to have another child, the Chengdu Population and Family Planning Committee, which oversees the policy in the capital of Sichuan Province, said Monday.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/26/asia/child.php

(Chinese officials sound like if they are talking about replacing a dead house pet. To them humans are just numbers and therefore can be manipulated by addition and subtraction.)

[Tilak]

China blocks Hindus from traditional pilgrimage to Tibet
By Heather Timmons and Hari Kumar
Published: May 21, 2008

Trust your own eyes
26 May 2008, 1620 hrs IST,Tarun Vijay

Sometimes to make a headline hit, we tend to break the bridge.

The passionate offensive that we saw in news reports about China changing the dates of the Kailash Mansarovar pilgrimage tells the same sad story about us –dependence on secondary sources to make news that is music to the hawks and TRP retailers but bad in intent and wrong in content.

The pilgrimage was not cancelled, it continues after a certain period. The facilities and infrastructure provided by China is good, our Ministry of External Affairs is painstakingly organising the yatra to the satisfaction of most pilgrims, bilateral trade has shown an extraordinary rise even during the Tibet imbroglio and both nations are signing new agreements signalling warmth and mutual understanding. Yet, news items appearing on Indian television channels and print media reflect lack of objectivity, often toeing the blind anti-China attitude of the embedded US journalists.

Have we become addicted to a negatively nuanced fixation with China?

I have never read any news about Hindu pilgrims in New York Times, a paper that loves to publish Delhi's secular Taliban practicing academic shamanism and looking at Hindu right from a fundamentalist mindset of Marthas and Witzels. So, I was surprised to find its interest in reporting the 'plight' of Hindu pilgrims, awaiting a call for a Kailash Mansarovar sojourn through the Tibet region. The report doesn't quote either Indian or Chinese foreign ministry sources but draws its conclusion in a way that would target the Chinese and give them a negative image in the western world, and of course transfer that to Indian readers too.

Unfortunately we don't have enough reporters in Beijing and depend on just two people to present China with an Indian perspective. I wonder why we are allowing ourselves to be a playground of American games against China. Our bilateral issues should be seen and tackled from Delhi's eyes and not through the western media known for its coloured blinkers. There are a number of Indians, who like any other copycat, blindly follow Capitol Hill’s perspectives and should be left at their place. But why does the mainline Indian media, which prides itself on being “objective, transparent and ethicalâ€

[Nayak]

Exclusive: India throws open Arunachal to tourists

New Delhi: The Indian Government wants to tell the world that it is not worried by China's claims over Arunachal Pradesh and so, it's opening up the state in a big way and inviting foreign tourists.

It is the Tourism Ministry's way of doing it bit to send the message that no one can question India's sovereignty in Arunachal Pradesh.

After Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's very important trip to Arunachal Pradesh two months ago, the Home Ministry has eased restrictions on foreign tourists there and the message is clear — "visit Arunachal. Eveything is normal there and the picturesque state is an integral part of India".

The Tourism Ministry also has a new tagline: Visit the unexplored paradise of India.

Jonit-Secretary, Tourism Ministry, Leena Nandan says, "The Ministry is enthused with this. We had been asking for this for a long time. It was a long felt need.''

The new guidelines are:

* Foreignors can now stay in Arunachal for a month. Earlier their visit was restricted to 10 days at a time.

* They can now go in small batches of two instead of four.

* Most of the new tourist circuits being opened up are right on the Sino-Indian border.

Leena Nandan says, "Allowing tourists into sensitive tucked away areas makes it a never before experience.''

The new destinations being thrown open includes the monastery towns of Monpas and Tawang, with an international convention center and a wellness park.

Other circuits include the border locations of Mechuka, Pasighat, Tuting, Nacho and Seppa. Not just that, the Government has allocated Rs 100 crore for developing the destinations.

With this decision and monetary grant, New Delhi is sending out a strong signal to China, which is perhaps greatly timed with the Dalai Lama accepting Chief Minister Dorjee Khandu's invitation to inaugurate a hospital in Tawang in the latter part of 2008.

For Arunachal though, this will only be a new beginning.

We have those insect-eating-monkeys quaking in their togas now.

[ramana]

we need to study PRC just as we studied TSP. Am working on a template and will post the stuff bye and bye after bay Area BRF peer reviews.

[Paul]

We need to stuady the situation in Nepal too. I am afraid we have missed the bus here already.

We have not been able to evolve a consensus on the monarchy's continuance and it's position on indian interests.

[amit]

Since the facinating thread which was trying to understand the Chinese mind is not moving much nowadays, I'm posting this here. This is from National Geogrpahic's May issue which is a special on China.

It has some interesting insights which I found useful to get a sense of the new China that's emerging.

China's Middle Class

and

Inside the Dragon

[derkonig]

Chinese media management reg. the Sichuan earthquake

[Sanjay M]

China's new embassy in U.S. reflects growing clout



An artist rendering of the new Chinese Embassy, which will be the largest embassy in Washington, D.C., when it is finished in August. (Pei Partnership Architects with I.M. Pei Architect)

[Karan Dixit]

Chinese have done a methodical job on ensuring the kind of news about China gets into U.S. Very well done!

Here is an interesting news:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080530/ap_ ... hacking_16

[Bade]

All quake images coming out of china are quite limited. Very few with any panoramic views, despite all the PRC helos that must be in the air and ferrying soldiers and material, especially at the dam sites. They have really clamped down on the media, despite putting up an image to the contrary.

[Raju]

a few panoramic views on this page

http://pinewooddesign.co.uk/2008/05/12/ ... rediction/

[Sanjay M]

China May 30, 2008, 6:59AM EST
China: Multinationals Hear It Online
From Tibet to Olympic torch protests to Sichuan earthquake relief, the Chinese blogosphere is giving companies an angry earful

[Karan Dixit]

In the joint communiqué issued at the end of the meeting, Chinese delegates scotched Russian proposals of supporting India's cause of entering the elite league at the Council.


http://www.worldpress.org/Asia/3161.cfm

[Karan Dixit]

We seem to be doing awful lot for a country which does not return the favor:

http://www.outlookindia.com/pti_news.asp?id=576009

[Karan Dixit]

Google Earth strikes again, with the revelation of a major ballistic missile launching facility in Central China. The missiles appear aimed at targets in Russia and India, and are fired from roadside launching areas.

http://www.strategypage.com/dls/article ... 101946.asp

[wamanrao]

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/st ... _eye/print

Rolling Stone Magazine writes about China's Panopticon-like experiment called 'Golden Shield' taking place in Shenzhen using technology supplied by companies such as IBM, Honeywell, and General Electric. Klein writes: 'Chinese citizens will be watched around the clock through networked CCTV cameras and remote monitoring of computers. They will be listened to on their phone calls, monitored by digital voice-recognition technologies. Their Internet access will be aggressively limited through the country's notorious system of online controls known as the "Great Firewall." Their movements will be tracked through national ID cards with scannable computer chips and photos that are instantly uploaded to police databases and linked to their holder's personal data.' According to Klein, this is more than just a Chinese experiment, it's also one that holds ramifications for America and elsewhere: '...the most efficient delivery system for capitalism is actually a communist-style police state... The global corporations currently earning superprofits from this social experiment are unlikely to be content if the lucrative new market remains confined to cities such as Shenzhen.

[Vikas]

China: The Indian Airbase gets their goat

NEW DELHI: That India and China are going through an unusually rough patch in their relations will be reflected in the talks Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee holds with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi when he arrives in Beijing on Wednesday.

China has "expressed unhappiness" to India about the reopening of its old Ladakh airbase on the India-China border. This protest, made after India operationalized the base on Saturday, has been informally transmitted through officials.

It also comes after China's reported claim to a small area on the Sikkim border that put the Indian government in a spot because this was a part of the border that was supposedly no longer a contentious issue. While Beijing remained silent, the foreign ministry weakly suggested it was "minor and local". Sources said the actions would be attributed to the personal behaviour of the Chinese commander in the area.

However, India's decision to reopen the 4,960-metre Daulatbeg Oldi airbase in Ladakh after 43 years apparently has spoken louder than words. The base gives India coverage over Aksai Chin as well as the Karakoram highway, which connects China with Pakistan. India now plans to open two other airbases in Chushul and Fukche in eastern Ladakh, also on the Chinese border.

China has emerged as India's greatest strategic concern, having for years worried only about Pakistan. But because China and India are two rising powers in Asia, India's larger aim will be to ensure that China and India don't go bump in the night. Relations will never be comfortable, but the idea, in New Delhi, is to ensure that they don't go bad.

India's methods for doing this are not encouraging. There is a growing perception that India is bending over backwards to an increasingly aggressive China. Indian officials say that dealing with Chinese counterparts is more difficult these days because they have become more belligerent across the table that makes India's polite diplomats more than a tad uncomfortable.

On India's part, there is increasing concern about China building up road and rail capabilities that connect it with Nepal as well as proposed rail routes that will bring China close to Nathu La, the Arunachal Pradesh border as well as the Myanmar border junction.

Besides, the long series of incursions across the LAC over the past few months has upset this country, though India has not officially protested about it. Essentially, what this amounts to is the fact that both countries are ramping up their border capabilities, though India is still many years behind China in this regard.

Meanwhile, there is little or no progress on a boundary settlement. It is likely that dates would be set for another meeting of the special representatives, but basically, that's where things will stand. Neither government is in any position to show substantive movement on the boundary issue at this moment. China has taken an aggressive position on its territorial claims, which means a resolution is far away at this point.

Chinese foreign minister, Yang Jiechi, will pay a return visit to India later this year, said sources, just ahead of a planned high level visit by Wu Bangguo, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) and China's top lawmaker, towards the end of this year. Meanwhile, India and China are slated to hold their second joint military exercises, also towards the end of the year.

[Karan Dixit]

BEIJING, China (AP) -- Foreigners attending the Beijing Olympics better behave -- or else.

or else China will teach them athletes a lesson?

link

[Karan Dixit]

"The time for the Chinese government to provide the fullest possible public accounting of the thousands killed, detained, or missing in the massacre that followed the protests is long overdue," Sean McCormack said in a statement on the eve of the 19th anniversary of what China has called the "June Fourth incident."

link

[Karan Dixit]

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan told China on Saturday it remained concerned about its ballooning defense expenditure, an official said, as the two countries sought to build military and other ties following a historic visit by Chinese President Hu Jintao last month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080614/wl_ ... china_dc_1

[Karan Dixit]

"We say for instance to the Chinese, very clearly so, that their blocking of certain Internet content is absolutely unacceptable," said Viviane Reding, the European Commissioner for Information Society and Media.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080620/tc ... 0620160035

[Karkala Joishy]

50 years and China will be enslaved by this cult of phony pastors just like other nations of Greece, Iraq, Iran Pakistan etc who have been forced to take on an alien culture kicking out their own.

Jesus in China

BEIJING - Rev. Jin Mingri peered out from the pulpit and delivered an unusual appeal: "Please leave," the 39-year-old pastor commanded his followers, who were packed, standing-room-only on a Sunday afternoon, into a converted office space in China's capital. "We don't have enough seats for the others who want to come, so, please, only stay for one service a day."

A choir in hot-pink robes stood to his left, beside a guitarist and a drum set bristling with cymbals. Children in a playroom beside the sanctuary punctuated the service with squeals and tantrums. It was a busy day at a church that, on paper, does not exist.

Christianity — repressed, marginalized and, in many cases, illegal in China for more than half a century — is sweeping the country, overflowing churches and posing a sensitive challenge to the officially atheist Communist Party.

By some estimates Christian churches, most of them underground, now have roughly 70 million members, as many as the party itself. A growing number of those Christians are in fact party members.

[Sanjay M]

China demolishes mosque for not supporting Olympics: group

[ramana]

That TOI article on DBO airfield was written by an Indian or a RNI(Resident Non Indian)? Looks strange in its construction. Appears written for a faraway audience and not for locals.

[ramana]

X-Posted...

The article by Ashok K Mehta clarified some of my thoughts on 'why' the Chinese are acting up.

Namely, there is an internal power struggle going on in China, and the boundary issue is a fallout of that.

Members should note that as the market oriented group (marketists - my word) within CCP gained power (especially with the success of the market), it sidelined the socialists within the party. It also sidelined the PLA generals, but they were happy as long as the money kept buying new weapon for them. Also, the PLA itself took to the market in a big way, opening hotels, factories, whatnot.

The PLA is probably trying to reassert itself within the ruling hierarchy. By flaring up the border with India, this group is limiting the option for the othre group or groups.

A PLA-led group, possibly in alliance with the displaced socialists, may be trying to force the issue upon marketists.

This issue needs more watching to clarify.

I promise all BRFites that your friendly neighbourhood China-basher will do the needful.

So was there a similar tussle between two factions in 1960s that led to the border aggression? Can folks research this aspect.

I think Roderick Macfaraqhar is the Western expert to consult on this.

[ramana]

Is a pity that we lost the "Lets understand the Chinese" thread.

Roderick Maqfarquhar on Chinese political evolution at Harvard Uty.

and

Prespectives on China

[Johann]

So was there a similar tussle between two factions in 1960s that led to the border aggression? Can folks research this aspect.

I think Roderick Macfaraqhar is the Western expert to consult on this.

Are you talking about the 1962 war, or the scuffles in the late 1960s?

In 1962 the internal party struggle was between Liu Shaoqui and Deng Xiaoping one one side, and Mao and Lin Piao on the other. IOW, PLA commanders were also divided in the power struggle. This struggle culminated in the Cultural Revolution in 1966 that Mao launched first an foremost against his opponents within the CPC who had blocked his plans (Great Leap Forward, etc).

However the war with India does not seem to have been a result of this power struggle, but rather the inevitable outcome of the CPC decision back in the 1950s to take and hold Aksai Chin one way or another.

[Singha]

Nai Dilli has still not abolished the "inner line permit" needed by indian nationals to even visit arunachal!! people have to get this from D.C. office
in various places. who wants such a hassle to even visit a place.
I am ok with restrictions on outsiders buying land there or setting up shop but
a visitors visa to visit my own country is a shame.

[Lalmohan]

Since the "Understanding the Chinese" thread is no longer active, I am posting this here

Human flesh search engines: Chinese vigilantes that hunt victims on the web

this is not about vampires or flesh eating zombies (alas), but there are some very interesting psychological insights into the Chinese mindset here, not just the leading lady of the article, but the 'mob' that seeks vengeance on national slights. It seems that any Chinese person that says anything remotely nationally critical is immediately hounded by eager net volunteers. I suppose if they were Pakistanis they would be blowing each other up, but hey...

[RayC]

On Nov. 2nd, Professor Li Shi (李实) of the Institute of Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ( Peking ) gave a talk at the Centre. Prof. Li Shi publications include China's Retreat from Equality: Income Distribution and Economic Transition (with Carl Riskin and Zhao Renwei , M.E. Sharpe: New York , 2001).
Back to the early 1950s, the income gap between urban and rural households was much smaller compared to today. It began to rise due to the institutional changes implemented by the new Communist regime, and especially the hukou system that prohibited labor mobility and population migration. Later, during the Cultural Revolution, the gap grew larger because of the strict regulation on grains circulation and price policy in rural areas and the industrialization in urban areas.....

However, since the mid-1980s, because of the pricing policy on agricultural products and the speed-up in urban reform and foreign direct investments (FDI), that are mainly concentrated in the urban coastal China , the income gap started again to grow. ....

But since 1997, the income gap has constantly widened and it reached its highest level ever in history last year. In 2003, the ratio was 3,23. Not only the income gap widened, but also consumption expenditure between urban and rural households followed the same pattern...

Professor Li Shi provided numerous data based on his team's extensive filed work and surveys in order to show other aspects of the urban and rural divide, such as the gap in education attainment, health care expenditure and social security. What is most striking is that the income support program (dibao) from the central and local governments are fully implemented in the urban areas, whereas the rural poor receive almost nothing. ....

Another reason is that public expenditure is favorable to urban areas....

Thirdly, the anti-poverty program should target more the rural poor (the funds allocated to those programs should not be used by local government officials to renew their offices and purchase new cars, as it is too often the case)

http://www.cefc.com.hk/fr/cefc/seminaire.php?idsem=64

[RayC]

China is an interesting subject since it is different from the world. It is even more different than the USSR (though both were/ are Communist totalitarian regimes) owing to their very interesting and complex history that gave rise to many a phenomenon that is different from the world.

The issue of Tibet and Xinjiang and China is an interesting subject for analysis since these are two totally different peoples who are holding out against being assimilated by the Han culture, which in itself is an exciting and vast canvas.

Why do I say assimilated by the Han culture?

It is said that the Manhcus were assimilated by the Han Culture, even though the Hans were ruled by the Manchus (Qing Dynasty).

And yet, there is a school of thought that suggests that China's 1911-12 Revolution is primarily a change in governmental style, from imperial to republican, traditional to modern. But given that the dynasty that was overthrown-the Qing-was that of a minority ethnic group that had ruled China's Han majority for nearly three centuries, and that the revolutionaries were overwhelmingly Han, to what extent was the revolution not only anti-monarchical, but also anti-Manchu?

The interesting aspect that is of contemporary interest is the fate of the Manchus in Machukuo, is strikingly similar to what is happening in Tibet and Xinjaing. The Manchus were reduced to a minority in Manchukuo through the Han migration and they were forced to accept the Han culture.

It is said that except for the Xibes in Xinjaing and a very elderly people in the North, the Manchus have forgotten their language.

Similar is the process in action in Tibet and Xinjiang where beyond a certain level, the medium of instruction is in Mandarin. It is no secret that there is a full throated drive to debunk the Dalai Lama and Tibetan Buddhism as is in Xinjaing to suppress the UIghurs.

Children in Xinjaing are not allowed to attend the Mosque till they are 18.

Here are the links:

http://www.forum18.org/Archive.php?article_id=411&pdf=Y

http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/a ... _in_china/

http://www.cecc.gov/pages/hearings/072403/armijo.php

And yet China claims to allow freedom to the minorities to pursue their culture and religions!

[ramana]

I wrote this for BRM in 2000

Challenge of China

The Challenge of China

D. Ramana

The end of Cold War and followed by the collapse of Soviet Union have transformed the geo-politics globally. Consequently, ideological confrontation has been reduced to a competition between states. While the prospect of nuclear confrontation in Europe has significantly diminished, there remains the problem of reforming of Asian socialism, limited as it may be to China, Vietnam and North Korea. Recent initiatives by the United States to draw North Korea into the world community are encouraging and should be continued. However the moves seem to be driven by need for reducing instability in the Pacific Rim due to continuation of intransigence of the North Koreans. The impact of North Korean behavior in other regions due to propensity to proliferate WMD technology should be taken into account. They have been a source of missile proliferation to rogue states in the Middle East and South Asia (Pakistan). The profile of these transfers notwithstanding, North Korea was and remains a surrogate of People’s Republic of China, and it the latter that requires a closer examination.

The Chinese Challenge

In order to understand the challenge that China represents, one needs to understand the challenge that the Soviet Union, another totalitarian state, once posed. The superpower label used to describe the Soviet Union was misleading, in that Soviet Union was chiefly an ideologically driven military and political power. Despite its prodigious output during World War II and after, the Soviet Union was by no means an economic power. Its inability to successfully transition from a war economy to a peacetime consumer economy ultimately proved to be its undoing. The West, led by United States, formulated the ‘Containment’ policy in order to contain the spread of Soviet power with its system of alliances. However one has to realize that the Soviet Union had already reached its limits of its power soon after end of WWII. Its expansion in Eastern Europe was due to the quest for buffer territory from Germany and later Western Europe. Its forays out of its ‘near abroad’ were limited and reciprocal. The Afghan war stretched its resources and sapped its morale. The economic collapse that followed the intervention led to its implosion and collapse as the ‘other superpower’.

China in contrast is both a rising economic and political power. Its military though modernizing is limited to strategic weapons and does not have any real capability to influence any major event in the near term. Unlike Soviet Union, which was implementing a Western ideology, China's political thought is rooted in nationalism. It has been beating back invaders for over 3000 years. Few nations can boast of its continuity in history and a track record of survival. It has absorbed many invasions and has survived each of them. Its interlude with Communism should be seen in that light as another invasion – an invasion of ideas.

China’s evolution today represents the vision of two individuals- Mao Ze Dung and Deng Xiao Peng. The Mao’s contributions are many, but key among them is his role as nation builder. In particular, he unified China under communist rule, obtained nuclear weapons, and consolidated China’s place in the world. It took the Soviet Union seventy years to realize the folly of its economic policies. China, on the other hand, realized this in about thirty years and Deng launched the four modernizations to transform it. Significant among them is the absence of any devolution of political power. In fact soon after the modernization program was launched, the regime suffered a jolt in the form of political dissent form of the Democracy Movement and led to the Tienannmen Square massacres. This event shook the very core of the regime and hardened its attitudes towards political dissent. The West hopes that by constructive engagement it can bring about gradual changes to the Chinese polity. The hope is that the government will transition from totalitarianism to authoritarianism to eventually democracy. The adoption of pragmatic policies by Deng Xiao Peng, and end of Cold War show that it is making the transition to authoritarian state. In all possibility this could be the most that will happen. Engagement with the West is bringing about tremendous pressure for political change from the newly rich. However, the regime in Beijing wants to keep all political freedoms in control while it leapfrogs from ox-carts to a modern economy without giving up anything on the political side. It fears democratization could derail the process of modernization and undermine the authority of the Communist Party. Consequently, economic liberalization has not been accompanied by political liberalization.

The challenge of Taiwan to the Chinese political system

Taiwan’s democratic transformation throws up a major ideological challenge to the mainland’s political system. Many mainlanders would question the authoritarian nature of their state if the Taiwan experiment succeeds. The mainland is tackling the challenge in two ways- by treating Taiwan as a renegade province it questions the legitimacy of that political system which could undermine it- this is accompanied by keeping up the military pressure and numerous threats. The second way is that of proposing ‘one country two systems’ type of government. Both these paths appear to be aimed at buying time while it grows stronger. As can be seen the fight is internal and will get resolved with the march of time. However it is in the interest of the world community that Taiwan exists as an example of contrast to the people of China.

China and the World

China is a member of many of the power bodies of the world. Its pretence at being a responsible international player is not matched by its actions on the ground. Despite being a member of the UN Security Council its participation in peacekeeping missions are few and that too in non-combatant roles. Despite being a member of many international treaties it has proliferated weapons of mass destruction in its own strategic interest and has thus spread suffering.

In order to understand its policy of proliferation, one must understand that this constituted practicing war by other means. Realizing that direct war can be costly, China has found the asymmetric weapon of proliferation to tie down its challengers- declared and potential. Its nurturing the North Korean regime to tie down South Korea and principally Japan has backfired. The latter is drawn more closely into security arrangements with the US than during the Cold War. And possibly that could be a goal of the Chinese- a Japan tied up in a relationship with the US is better than an autonomous Japan. And North Korean belligerent moves have prompted the neighbors into participating in US theater missile defenses, which in turn degrade China’s posture. Its proliferation to Pakistan has prompted India to unveil its nuclear capability and it is a matter of time for the Indian posture to build up sufficiently to dissuade China. It is contributing to the instability in the Middle East by proliferation and hopes to weaken the US based alliances in the region. One has to see how this turns out in the future.

Taking a long view of China’s history, the nearby regions have suffered whenever China had a weak center. From the time of the Mongol invasions to the colonial era, there has been negative fallout in the region whenever China had weak regimes. However strong centers have also resulted in a spillover of hegemonistic tendencies prompting a former Thai minister to say, "The best thing China can do is stay together and stay at home!" What is desirable is a benign son of heaven in Beijing for peace and prosperity in Asia and now in a globalized world. However till that happens, one has to be on guard.

Threat to India and responses

The post Cold War was hoped to give rise to multiple poles. China sees for itself a bipolar role globally and a unipolar role regionally. It is in this aspect that its moves to check India’s rise to power should be seen. Most Indian observers state that the loss of Tibet as a buffer has brought about problems in the Indo- Sino relationship. However it is not understood that the occupation of Tibet was an essential element of the Chinese worldview for gaining domination in Asia. It is the desire to dominate and play a zero sum game that drives the dissonance in the relationship and than mere border disputes. Here again it has taken advantage of the confusion among the Indian elite in recognizing the challenge it presents to them. Here is an instance of Sun Tzu’s precepts in practice to confuse the challenger in order to achieve strategic surprise.

Ever since Sumdrong Chu, China seems to have decided that direct confrontation is not a feasible option and has propped up Pakistan as a surrogate. The proliferation of delivery systems started in late 1988 along with the declarations of peace. It is notable that these transfers took place after the Cold War was waning and appears to be part of a long-term strategy to tie up India locally. The hoped for response did not materialize as India took steps to protect its strategic autonomy.

The potential areas where China could cause direct problems for India are mainly two – proliferation of WMD to Pakistan and support for insurgencies in the North- East region. It can cause indirect problems through dragging its feet on the unsettled border and veto India’s membership in world councils. Proliferation of weapons and delivery systems to Pakistan increases instability and causes resources diverted to defense related systems. The umbilical can only be cut by forceful posture with Agni-III deployment and a visible the C3I system put in place. The nuclear tests in the late nineties and the deployment of the deterrent will contribute in mitigating the effects of the proliferation. Active dialog and steps have to be taken to raise the costs to the proliferators to dissuade them. Pursuing peace efforts in Kashmir with the local militants will go a long way to diffuse the situation and remove the rationale for Pakistan to offer ‘moral ‘ support to the militancy.

The trouble in North East and an unsettled border lead to increase or sustained military/paramilitary expenditure, which reduces economic growth. These could be accompanied by encouraging intransigence in neighbors- Myanmar etc. Here again a mixture of economic and political measures should tackle the internal troubles. Integrating the North East into the mainstream of the Indian economy is an urgent and required step and should be pursued regardless. As regards the neighbors, expansion of BMIST, and a new regional economic integration are needed to ensure ASEAN type of system. This should go a long way in discouraging the propensity to support such behavior in neighbors.

Conclusion

Its threat is mainly an indirect one through proliferation to Pakistan and support of insurgencies in the North East. It could also harass India by prolonging the border settlement and oppose entry into world bodies. The response has to be increased economic growth and regional integration to reduce propensity for conflict accompanied by a watchful eye on defense related systems. As China eventually resolves for itself the role that it wants to play in the world, India has to be on its guard. China’s attempts to constrain India are doomed to fail for India has historically never taken a back seat to China. The realization should be that it is not that China directly threatens India but rather it reduces and diminishes India’s power.

[John Snow]

Johann, Raman et al, I very well remember the power tuzzle between Lin Pao ( also called Lin bao), I used regularly listen to BBC, Radio Natherlands, VOA, Radio Mascow and Radio Bejing. ( at that time Peking), actually some of these sations used to marked out on the dials of SW radios. ( I used to listen to them on 1944 model GEC radio 5 valves ac/dc set).

I recall that Lin Pao was killed in air crash while fleeing as Radio Peking announced some time in 1966/1967?

The cultural revolution was one way of purging the factions split along Mao and Lin Pao groups.

[ramana]

X-posted...
Every Indian op-ed writer of all shades is convinced that the Leftists are carrying the message of the PRC. And all uniformly decry the Leftists for thwarting the deal.

In all this unified opposition to the deal from the Commies and Leftists are we seeing a subtle message from the PRC that nuclear India is acceptable but not an India allied with the US even if its at whatever level?

[Rishi]

X-posted...
Every Indian op-ed writer of all shades is convinced that the Leftists are carrying the message of the PRC. And all uniformly decry the Leftists for thwarting the deal.

In all this unified opposition to the deal from the Commies and Leftists are we seeing a subtle message from the PRC that nuclear India is acceptable but not an India allied with the US even if its at whatever level?

http://www.covert.co.in/150508/prakash.htm
The CPI(M) General-Secretary refutes the allegation, repeated during the Indo-US nuclear deal negotiations, that Indian Marxists are more loyal to China than India. From the 1st issue of Covert, MJ Akbar's new mag. May 2008;

[ramana]

I read that already. My point is something more. Is PRC sending a message which is being ignored in the din?