Indian Nuke News & Discussion Thread-June 18 2008

Duangkomon · Post by **Duangkomon** » 10 Jul 2008 06:47

ramana wrote:Obviously logic wasnt his strong point.

Anyone care to see how his statemetns fit the standard model for logic?

LinkLogical Fallacy

Why don't you point out the fallacies yourself instead of insinuating AK is illogical?

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 10 Jul 2008 06:53

The logical fallacy in Kakodkar's argument is that he says "Everyone agrees with X, so Y is okay." This is known as the Fallacy of False Cause or Non Sequitur.

X in this case is the need for nuclear power and Y is this particular deal, which involves certain costs in return for access to power.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 10 Jul 2008 07:52

The lefties are devastated?

ROFLMAO!

Losers with a capital L!

What have they ever achieved in the history of the world? NOTHING!

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Jul 2008 07:52

I predict a sudden loss of interest in this thread.

Raju · Post by **Raju** » 10 Jul 2008 07:54

Back home, Mulford works on envoys of NSG nations
10 Jul, 2008, 0443 hrs IST, ET Bureau

NEW DELHI: The US has already started aggressively lobbying with the Nuclear Suppliers Group countries to support the Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement and grant a waiver to India for engaging in international nuclear commerce.

US ambassador David C Mulford met ambassadors of around 25 NSG countries here on Monday to explain the finer points of the nuclear deal and the need for India to be integrated into the nuclear mainstream. Mr Mulford, who has been actively involved in guiding the nuclear deal through the various stages, also explained the different stages that the deal would now need to pass through before it can be operationalised, diplomatic sources said.

The meeting, which took place over lunch, is significant as it shows that India and the US have decided to simultaneously push the NSG countries and work towards getting the India-specific safeguards agreement passed by the IAEA board of governors. The US ambassador organised the meeting on the day PM Manmohan Singh declared his government’s plans to approach IAEA for wrapping up the safeguards agreement.

The urgency of the meeting is understandable as the US has very little time in which to convince the remaining skeptics within the NSG who believe that granting an exemption for India would be tantamount to weakening the Non-Proliferation Treaty. With the NSG operating on a consensus, it is crucial for the US to get each of the 44 members on board before the crucial vote.

The IAEA board of governors meeting is scheduled for July 28. After it approves the India specific safeguards agreement, the US will call a meeting of the NSG countries to vote on a waiver for India. Though India will do its own lobbying among NSG countries, it is the US which will do the heavy lifting to ensure a consensus.

Government sources admit that getting this exemption from the NSG will not be smooth sailing. With the lapse of a considerable amount of time due to India’s domestic wrangling, countries that had started coming round to the Indian point of view have gone back to raising questions about the nuclear deal.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/New ... 216536.cms

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 10 Jul 2008 07:56

RajeshA wrote:Sharing these documents with the Left would have brought nothing, rather it would have furnished the Left with still more ammunition to keep on bombarding the government.

Why should the UPA government provide Left with ammunition against itself? Left's position is not based on technicalities but rather as they have often said, it is based on the context of Indo-US strategic alliance.

So it is the right thing, that the Government did not disclose the contents of the safeguards to the Left.

However I solemnly protest. The Government should have at least posted the contents of the safeguard agreement here on BRF. We could have dissected here the pros and cons and had a good discussion in the name of national interests and the best part is, it would not have bothered the government the least.

Wicked Government!

Post of the day!

Bravo!

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 10 Jul 2008 08:02

paramu wrote: Do we still need to hold our horses with the latest revelations?

What revelations have happened which are relevant to my post? My post simply said that GOI will not formalize the agreement with IAEA without proving its majority in Parliament and that this vote will be tantamount to the *ratification* which people here have been clamouring for the last 2-3 years. If the UPA cannot get a majority in this vote, the 123 agreement will the least of its problems.

So hold on to your horses..... until then.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 10 Jul 2008 08:05

The timing of this push to IAEA so late after much dilly dallying with the left (drama) seem to be only to give as little time as possible to the NSG countries to sign in their approval.

Seems all well orchestrated in advance by the GOI babus with GOTUS consent.

Raju · Post by **Raju** » 10 Jul 2008 08:11

Bade wrote:The timing of this push to IAEA so late after much dilly dallying with the left (drama) seem to be only to give as little time as possible to the NSG countries to sign in their approval. Seems all well orchestrated in advance by the GOI babus with GOTUS consent.

yes Bade, this seems to be the right conclusion.

While as the Left seems to have been kept out of this deal just as a domestic political gesture in view of upcoming elections. Gives them something to cry about to their captive audience in WB, Kerala & Tripura. So both sides are happy.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Jul 2008 08:13

But then why did Left leave? I don't see how they can now suddenly rejoin the govt. That would be very had for H&D. So you say that the COMMUNISTS sacrificed their closest approach to ruling India, just for the same of the nation? If I believe that, I can sleep easy, knowing that I can safely send my savings account number to Colonel Mohammed Abdul of the Nigerian Army as the emails plead.

pradeepe · Post by **pradeepe** » 10 Jul 2008 08:15

Now that the text of the agreement is out, I would suppose arguments implying hidden sinister clauses within it would be laid down. For the left, that would a further red flag and I can fully undersand it if they start heading out to the nearest CPR units.

Raju · Post by **Raju** » 10 Jul 2008 08:21

Just one more year of rule left, every side is posturing for elections. If the Govt wins the forthcoming vote of confidence then they can rule unchallenged for 6 months even if they are minority govt or support is withdrawn by minor coalition partners. The Left can stay outside the Govt for 6 months and claim we opposed the govt to their votebank in WB, Kerala etc.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 10 Jul 2008 08:29

Sounds plausible. So no loss of H&D for the left when they face their vote banks. Since, they also do not want elections anytime soon ( which was more true the further one goes back in time for the last 4 yrs) and there is still enough time for a patch up before the elections next summer. Who remembers the details...even I don't

in a few months time.

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 10 Jul 2008 08:51

Seems like India negotiated a very sound accord with IAEA. You can see the displeasure of non proliferation people:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080710/ ... 346ad.html

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 10 Jul 2008 08:58

Ambiguity in India IAEA nuclear text raises concern

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 10 Jul 2008 09:06

Seems like everyone and his grandmother are game when it comes to taking digs on the Leftists. This is what Outlook came up with in its latest issue, Chinese flag et al

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Jul 2008 09:42

Very crucial to up security at all N-Plants so no repeat of kabul Embassy happens. My spider sense says TSP will be like Yosemite Sam- hopping mad. Even PRC as part of G-8 is agreeing to the waiver. They will do anything to thwart the NSG waiver..

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Jul 2008 10:03

ramana wrote:SAD should have argued for their decision on its own merits and not seek a clutch from paraochial regional leaders.

They have to use language of Indian politics to make others in the NDA understand, especially the aspects of the analogy, that as with Shiv Sena, this will a one-issue betrayal, and then they will return to the "fold", and they should be allowed back into the fold, without any residual ill-will.

The analogy of Shiv Sena's "betrayal" in Presidential Election is necessary, as NDA (read BJP) would have little to offer as argument or protest in this case. NDA's cynical minds (actually pertains to all political parties in India) wouldn't buy the thinking, that nuclear energy is really needed by Punjab.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Jul 2008 11:07

Left queries on safeguards thrust spotlight on ‘corrective measures’

The Classical Debate -

Ambiguity is used to find a balance between two extremes, but pressure to clarify threatens to destroy that balance.

What to do???

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Jul 2008 11:21

pradeepe wrote:Now that the text of the agreement is out, I would suppose arguments implying hidden sinister clauses within it would be laid down. For the left, that would a further red flag and I can fully undersand it if they start heading out to the nearest CPR units.

Its early days yet but it seems IMO, the Congress has manouvered both the BJP and Left into a rather tight corner.

It kept quite at best and at worst looked guilty for months as speculation was rife that they were selling the faimly silver and bums to get this deal. And this created an impression of weakness which prompted an upping of rehtoric on the part of both the BJP and the Left.

And at the last minute when both the BJP and Left have taken unequivocal stands from where it would be difficult for them to come back without a major loss of face, the IAEA draft is released and prima facie it does not have any hidden demons or sell out clauses written into it. As Rangudu guru says, when the NPA Ayotollahs are hopping mad there must be something very good in the draft.

The voting in Parliament will, willy nilly be a sort of ratification for the N-deal. The Left will have to vote against the government and then it opens itself to the stigma of being a spoiler for more electricity and development. Trust its politcal opponents to use that to the hilt during the polls.

And what about the BJP? If they now vote to boot out the UPA government, they will for a long time to come burn its bridges with the US - whom Vajpayee called India's natural ally. And for sure it can never negotiate a new nuclear deal as it will have to deliver something that is substantially better than what's in this one. I don't see how that would be possible in the next five-six years (that is assuming the NDA comes to power after elections).

And finally all manner of fence sitters like SAD now will clamour on the the N-deal bandwagon for sure. I'm pretty confident that Mamata Banerjee will veer towards the Congress. Considering their showing in the panchayat elections, the Left Front is not going to be very pleased at the prospect of facing a united Congress and Trianmool in the West Bengal elections.

NDA will have its work cut out for itself. It will have to oppose the government in the debate prior to the no-confidence motion and then it will have to seriously decide if it will vote for the motion or stage a walk out. BTW which party will bring in the No-Confidence motion? The Left or NDA?

Either way both the Left and the BJP will have to live down the stigma of voting together to bring down the government if they decide to do so.

*#*#*#*#*#*#* (please fill in with your most favourite of the invectives that have been hurled on this thread) Manmohan Singh and #*#*#*#*#* (same here please) Sonia Gandhi seem to have played their cards rather well. IMVHO offcourse.

Amitayus · Post by **Amitayus** » 10 Jul 2008 11:32

I have one question, simply from cost-benefit angle.

Two days ago, Prakash Karat said in an interview in CNN-IBN that after the operationalization of the deal, nuclear power which is now 3% of the total power generation will be 6% by 2016 and maximum 8-9% by 2020 or so. For that India needs to spend thrice its annual budget to increase the share of nuclear power from 3% to 6%.

What is the basis of this statement? Is there any available data on it? I have not checked this thread frequently, but has there been any cost benefit analysis (purely on economic terms) done earlier in BR?

This is what CPM says
http://www.cpim.org/nuclear/articles/09 ... prabir.pdf

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Jul 2008 11:52

narayanan wrote:So, as CRamS says, there may be treachery involved, and I agree there is, if China and the Commies are involved. What is their game, and why did the Left go so far out on a limb for this if China is going to agree? is it timing?

You know I really wonder if the Left – as in the CPI (M) and CPI as political parties (the others don’t matter) – were really working with a definite game plan on this. I suspect that the whole Left manouvering over the past few months were dictated by the two ideologues Prakash Karat and AV Bardhan. I know Bardhan is as hardcore Stalinist as they come and Karat is also a great admirer of Stalin. Both approaced the deal from an ideological perspective as opposed to the pragmatic approach popularised in Left circles by Jyoti Basu and Surjeet.

Why I suspect this? That’s because this is the first time I’ve seen different CPI (M) leaders issuing contradictory statements. That happens often for the normal political parties like the Congress or BJP but never in a cadre based party like CPI (M) or for the matter CPI.

Note that Buddhadev Bhattacharya – who’s by no means a dove – has come out more than once in indirect support of the nuclear deal. You even had the Power Minister in West Bengal – off hand I forget his name – making an astonishing statement some months ago in the State Assembly in West Bengal to the effect that nuclear power is the way to go as our coal reserves are of inferior quality (high ash content etc) and wouldn’t fulfil our energy needs. He gave a number of stats to confirm this. Gerard posted the link if I remember correctly.

Contrast that with Karat’s stand that even solar power and wind power and off course gas supply from Iran flowing through “peaceful” Pakistan were good substitutes to Nuclear power.

IMO, Karat went out on a limb on this one and will pay the price (internally off course, the Commies never make public a rapping on the knuckles) if the CPI (M) suffers electoral reverses. Bardhan in any case is an has been leader, belonging to an has been party and so doesn’t matter as much as Karat does.

I’m sure there are many in the CPI (M) who are livid that Karat blew this wonderful arrangement of ruling the country without having to bear the responsibility just to satisfy an ideological whim.

All this is off course just my very humble thoughts.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Jul 2008 12:21

This has only indirectly to do with nuclear issues, but rather on the stability of the government to that end:

I suspect that Andhra Pradesh CM, Shri Rajasekhara Reddy would soon be taking a delegation of Andhra MLAs (Congress and TRS) to New Delhi to plead with the PM for the establishment of Telangana. PM will then proclaim, that he is in favor of Telangana and would be setting up a commission to look into the matter. Thereby it would not look, that PM yielded to blackmail from TRS for PM to support Telangana in exchange for support on the nuclear deal and confidence vote in Loksabha.

Considering the nervousness of UPA because of the upcoming confidence vote in Loksabha, they do not want to take any chances.

Amitayus · Post by **Amitayus** » 10 Jul 2008 12:45

amit wrote: Note that Buddhadev Bhattacharya – who’s by no means a dove – has come out more than once in indirect support of the nuclear deal. You even had the Power Minister in West Bengal – off hand I forget his name – making an astonishing statement some months ago in the State Assembly in West Bengal to the effect that nuclear power is the way to go as our coal reserves are of inferior quality (high ash content etc) and wouldn’t fulfil our energy needs. He gave a number of stats to confirm this. Gerard posted the link if I remember correctly.

WB Govt has always been a strong advocate of nuclear power. In the 80s it tried to set up a power plant in Purulia, then shelved it due to water shortage. In the 90s it planned a nuke plant near the Sunderbans which had to be shelved due to opposition from other LF constituents as well as the locals. In 2005, Buddhadev B'charya announced setting up of a nuke plant at Haripur near Digha. Subsequently NPC made preliminary survey work. However there was strong resistance from the locals who would be evicted due to the plant. After the Nandigram fiasco, Haripur project (which is close to Nandigram) has been shelved although not officially scrapped. It won't be surprising if the Haripur project is resuscitated after the turmoils of Nandigram dies down.

And the Power Minister's name is Mrinal Banerjee.

vina · Post by **vina** » 10 Jul 2008 13:00

BR Ahead of the curve, (as always ?) ..Rangudu posts the full draft IAEA text here at BR and then NDTV immediately jumps in claiming a "scoop" , claiming it has "exclusive access" (duh, it is available on the internet and that it was posted on BR is probably what tipped NTDV , so much of "exclusive" and "scoop") and then Al-TOI (let) , finally posting a link saying Govt Unveils IAEA Text.

I guess this is how it happened. Rangudu posts it here and gets the "scoop". Poor DDM are left to scramble to cover their echhanndee (H&D) , with NDTV rushing to post a "scoop" and the govt wisens up to the fact that the document is available on the internet "unveils" it.

BR ahead of the curve as always. Scoop to Rangudu and the Arms Control site which posted it. Shame on DDM for failing acknowledge that fact you dorks.

Prabu · Post by **Prabu** » 10 Jul 2008 13:23

Manny wrote:
RajeshA wrote:Sharing these documents with the Left would have brought nothing, rather it would have furnished the Left with still more ammunition to keep on bombarding the government.

Why should the UPA government provide Left with ammunition against itself? Left's position is not based on technicalities but rather as they have often said, it is based on the context of Indo-US strategic alliance.

So it is the right thing, that the Government did not disclose the contents of the safeguards to the Left.

However I solemnly protest. The Government should have at least posted the contents of the safeguard agreement here on BRF. We could have dissected here the pros and cons and had a good discussion in the name of national interests and the best part is, it would not have bothered the government the least.

Wicked Government!

Post of the day!

Bravo!

1) It is a clear breach of trust by the congress ! Its a mere cheating !
2) GOI constituted a panel of LEFT & CONGRES members as COMMITEE to evaluate the Nuke deal implication and NOT sharing the IAEA draft does NOT make any sense, after forming a commite !
3) What and How do we expect the commitee to evalluate ? the paintings in the conference halls walls then ? ??
4) Mr.Pranab told on Tuesday that theY will NOT go ahead without prooving the strength in the floor of parliment. See now what has happend ? GOI has gone ahead to IAEA ! iF U WANT TO GO AHEAD PLEASE DO SO, BUT WHY TO TELL A GREEN LIE !!??
5) GOI has NO JUSTIFICATION WHAT SO EVER, TO HIDE THE IAEA agreement from the LEFT and also the Indian public. IAEA oficails have made it clear that NO PROTOCOL prevents its all member states,(including GOI) from circulating the Draft agreement !! Againa BIG lie there !! we DO NOT understand WHY ??? WHY SO MUCH OF SECRECY WHICH IS UN WANTED !! These actions DOES NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE !!!!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Jul 2008 13:31

It is a good thing, that UPA Government has decided to publish the safeguards agreement only now. Had they done it, in the Left-UPA Committee, then the Left would probably have said:

"it is a very technical agreement, and it would take at least till May '09 before we can start understanding it. In the meantime, the government should show patience. There is no need to hurry. We have already custom-ordered a very fine comb from China to go through the agreement."

Now it does not matter, if it becomes public. Now the Left can shout as much as they want, nobody will listen to them. They do not have a veto on the matter any more.

"privileged", "classified", "confidential", "nuclear terrorism danger", etc, etc. is simply hogwash to put up a brave face against Left's accusations. The whole circus was to hoodwink the Left, but not necessarily the nation. In the end, it was obvious that sooner or later, the document would be in public domain.

vina · Post by **vina** » 10 Jul 2008 13:35

Ha. Ha Ha

Karat Blasts UPA Govt Over IAEA Draft

[quote]Reacting to the unveiling of the IAEA safeguards draft text, CPM leader Prakash Karat has lashed out at the UPA government saying it has lost credibility over the issue.

Speaking to journalists here, Karat said it is strange the government, that was till Wednesday convinced that the text of the draft was confidential, had now put it up on the Ministry of External Affairs website. He wondered what had happened between Wednesday and now that warranted such a turnaround [/url]

Oh, Karat and credibility! Talk of chalk and cheese.

As for the "turnaround" zimble onree no ? . The draft is available on the Internet and where it is available became public thanks to Rangudu . and once the genie was out of the bottle and duplicated in a hundred file sharing sites, it could not be put back in the bottle again!.

If only Karat had read BR , instead of the tomes in the JNU library and his copy of the Economic and Political Weekly and other Marxist pamphlets, he would have gotten his hands on the draft earlier than and could have caught Pranabda unawares!

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 10 Jul 2008 13:42

vina wrote:Ha. Ha Ha

Karat Blasts UPA Govt Over IAEA Draft

If only Karat had read BR , instead of the tomes in the JNU library and his copy of the Economic and Political Weekly and other Marxist pamphlets, he would have gotten his hands on the draft earlier than and could have caught Pranabda unawares!

The safeguards draft is in the public domain only since today, after it was decided to circulate it amongst the IAEA board members. But that is just the serious take of your point.

On the lighter side, even if Karat had it earlier, it doesn't mean he would have understood it to rub Pranabda something under the nose.

vsudhir · Post by **vsudhir** » 10 Jul 2008 15:43

IAEA says won't interfere with India's military programme

"....India shall file with the Agency (IAEA) a declaration, based on its sovereign decision, to place voluntarily its civilian nuclear facilities under Agency safeguards in a phased manner," it says.

".... the Agency (IAEA) shall implement safeguards in a manner designed to avoid hampering India's economic or technological development, and not to hinder or otherwise interfere with any activities involving use by India of nuclear material, non-nuclear material, equipment, components, information or technology produced, acquired or developed by India independent of this Agreement for its own purposes," it says.

The provision about not interfering with aspects of India's nuclear programme other than safeguarded nuclear facilities is significant in the context of apprehensions from various quarters, including political parties and some scientists, that the country's military programme could be affected by the pact.

The draft agreement, which is to be approved by the IAEA Board of Governors, envisages support for Indian effort to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel for safeguarded facilities to guard against any disruption of supply over the life time of India's reactors.

India may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies, it says without elaborating.

The agreement recognises India's commitment to the full development of its national three-stage nuclear programme to meet the twin challenges of energy security and protection of the environment.

Have long been sceptical about the deal's benefits. But if the NSG waiver language is as clean as this OAEA draft appears to be, more power to those who negotiated it. And credit be given where it is due - to MMS and SG. Too early for that, though. Lets see how this plays out first.

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Jul 2008 15:49

vsudhir wrote:IAEA says won't interfere with India's military programme

Hmm, interesting how the above link reads with this:

Scientists wary of India-specific IAEA text

Former Atomic Energy Commission Chairman P K Iyengar and former Atomic Energy Regulatory Board Chairman A Gopalakrishnan said the draft text was identical to the IAEA Circular 66 on safeguards to non-weapon states and that it provided no assurance on fuel supply.

And

"There is nothing India-specific except that IAEA has not made objection to India's strategic programme," Iyengar said.

Dunno for sure but would have thought no mention about the strategic programme is quite an achievement?

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Jul 2008 15:55

Amitayus wrote: And the Power Minister's name is Mrinal Banerjee.

Thanks Amitayus. And yes I agree with the rest of your post.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 10 Jul 2008 16:04

Former Atomic Energy Commission Chairman P K Iyengar and former Atomic Energy Regulatory Board Chairman A Gopalakrishnan said the draft text was identical to the IAEA Circular 66 on safeguards to non-weapon states and that it provided no assurance on fuel supply.
A third scientist, former BARC Director A N Prasad, however, said the text is generally all right but there is nothing India-specific.

But NNWS NPT signatories can no longer use INFCIRC66. They must accept the additional protocol INFCIRC540.
And the IAEA isn't in the business of supplying fuel.

Wasn't the whole point about the IAEA negotiation to avoid the INFCIRC540 measures and get INFCIRC66? It seems AK has done exactly this.

R Vaidya · Post by **R Vaidya** » 10 Jul 2008 16:12

I am not a nooclear expert nor for that matter my dear friend Bush.
There are certain things which puzzles me--
1. CPM is against the deal --means it is good to the country
2. US nooclear Ayatullas are angry --Means all the more good to India.
3. If India bursts it will face sanctions--It can happen with or without the deal.
4. the text give "blank"-- against names of installations --Our Babus are never dumb may be deaf to criticism.
5. it gives loophole to India to organise its affairs if there is stoppage of fuel. Babus again score
6. Left anyhow wanted to withdraw since they need at least six months to remove the "stain" of association with the unpopular UPA.
7. China may oppose it in NSG which will make left situation very difficult.
8. If PVN is the PM --BJP would have found reasons to abstain from voting!! Sonia/MMS could have been smart enough to have the UPA/NDA coordination committee to discuss the deal instead of with left whose position was very clear. For them USA and Bush are both four letter words--give or take one.

The most important point I am thinking is--- is this deal so big to be made to bring down a Governments;create chaos in markets [since it has become the war of the brothers--except both on kAurava side!] and do horse trading . Remember earlier Governments have been brought down shouting Bofors [justifiably] and Enron--But after that nothing happened--except Black Swans are made common.

There are thousands of such deals in different Ministries made every year--which are not even read by the public.
Maybe I should not say all this now on a lively and lovely thread going on from June--
But whoever told you professors are always smart!!
R Vaidya

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 10 Jul 2008 16:23

It is not a done deal yet. But I think things look reasonably positive.

>>more power to those who negotiated it. And credit be given where it is due - to MMS and SG.

Let us not forget to credit the BJP (so far). While they have been sniping a bit, you cannot seriously fault their role. They have never presented an insurmountable obstacle (yet). You cannot expect them to fall completely and publicly in line. And there were always positive notes as well. It is not inconceivable (I would suggest that, in fact, it is certain - without any evidence whatsoever) that they were fully in the loop in terms of the negotiations/drafts for the past several months at least.

The losers? Karat primarily and his wife Brinda (in a more indirect way). Do not assume that the Communist high command was not unaware that their failure to block the deal would help to take him down a notch. They are politicians, like the rest.

All this, from the fact that this was a "done deal" to the fact that Karat would be the main loser, was predicted on BRF. It would be interesting if someone could trawl back and get those posts...

But as I said, this thing is not yet past the ribbon.

amit · Post by **amit** » 10 Jul 2008 16:32

JE Menon wrote:It is not a done deal yet. But I think things look reasonably positive.

>>more power to those who negotiated it. And credit be given where it is due - to MMS and SG.

Let us not forget to credit the BJP (so far). While they have been sniping a bit, you cannot seriously fault their role. They have never presented an insurmountable obstacle (yet). You cannot expect them to fall completely and publicly in line. And there were always positive notes as well. It is not inconceivable (I would suggest that, in fact, it is certain - without any evidence whatsoever) that they were fully in the loop in terms of the negotiations/drafts for the past several months at least.

The losers? Karat primarily and his wife Brinda (in a more indirect way). Do not assume that the Communist high command was not unaware that their failure to block the deal would help to take him down a notch. They are politicians, like the rest.

All this, from the fact that this was a "done deal" to the fact that Karat would be the main loser, was predicted on BRF. It would be interesting if someone could trawl back and get those posts...

But as I said, this thing is not yet past the ribbon.

JEM,

It could very well be, as you speculate, that the BJP was in the loop. But there's likely to be a No-confidence motion in Parliament, which would be a sort of referendum on the deal. I really wonder how the BJP will handle that? I suspect it could be fiery speeches and a walk-out.

All in all it would be interesting to see how this goes.

And also if the deal passes muster without any major problems and ambush at the NSG stage, it would be another feather in the cap for the Indian system. It may seem chaotic and without purpose but at the end of the day it delivers. More power to unruly Indian democractic system!

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 10 Jul 2008 16:53

To create a positive atmosphere for the nuclear deal I think Indian government has to announce some reduction on Petrol prices (ofcourse it means a lot of sacrifice) and also do some measures publicly to contain inflation. This will defeat all those who are opposed to the deal and reduce the heat of it.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 10 Jul 2008 17:00

With the fleeting clarity that comes with morning coffee, I too agree that this is the right explanation for Why The Left Left:

From Vaidyaji:

6. Left anyhow wanted to withdraw since they need at least six months to remove the "stain" of association with the unpopular UPA

Their vote bank is not in UP or MP (there they use Naxals) or Maharashtra. In Kerala, the fact that they stood on principle and opposed the Running Dogs of the Paper Tigers of Capitalist Imperialist Kuttaka Vyaparis (monopoly traders), will be regarded as heroic. The ONLY party that put principle over power-hunger (i.e., political, not electric). Ppl here who say that their obstruction of progress and specifically of electric power progress, should please check into the history of the Idukki project, which was supposed to make electric power so plentiful in Kerala that we didn't even need lines and switches any more, so the Commies stole all the metal in the wires and transformers.

Nuclear power will make no difference in Kerala, since the wires will be stolen and the KSEB will still be run by the Marxists, so that baksheesh collection will continue unabated at every level (in all fairness, baksheesh in Kerala has no politics, only difference is that the Marxists are more organized about it). So the Commies' interest in this was to oppose the Deal 400% regardless of its content, because they needed a good way to disassociate from the Congress before the next election.

The Congress will come tail-wagging back to the Commies in the next election, because the only reason for the INC/CPIM/"OtherCommnityVoteBank" alliance is their common fear of "communalism". So ironically, the Nuke Deal may have ensured the INC returning to "power".

And I forgot, but there was a bit more coffee left: In Kerala now, the real political battle is not CPIM vs. INC, but CPIM vs. Muslim League. (BJP are complete non-entities in Kerala except to get beaten up or cut to death by Commies, Islamists and Congressies and anyone else). So now the Commies have the means to cut into the exploding (no pun intended, see "Coimbatore Blasts") Muslim League votebank, by being the only party that stood up to the "anti-Muslim" India-US-Israel YYY Arms Deal. NOW I see the reason for those posters that Acharya posted saying "NO TO US-INDIA ARMS DEAL". It's all intended for the Kerala voters.

joshvajohn · Post by **joshvajohn** » 10 Jul 2008 17:22

Sri Sri Ravi Shankar asks opposition parties to back N-deal
http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news ... -b/333942/

Washington, July 10: Invoking national interest, renowned spiritual guru, Sri Sri Ravi Shankar, has appealed to all Indian political parties to display ‘magnanimity’ and support the troubled Indo-US nuclear deal.

"All parties must support the deal that is beneficial to the country," he said.

India has always had a tradition of the government and opposition coming together in national interest whenever a crisis of war befall on the nation, he said, appealing to all the political parties to display magnanimity on the issue.

"At a time when the country is faced with severe energy shortage, the government has negotiated a nuclear deal with the US, which can augment sustainable energy sources," he said in a statement issued in Seattle.

"The opposition need not oppose everything that the government does," Sri Sri added.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 10 Jul 2008 17:32

As a votary of sustainable enrgy achieved through holistic efforts,from all the available disciplines of power production,despite the zillions of words on the N-deal,the inescapable fact remains that even at full stretch we will be able to achieve not more than 7% through nuclear power.Where is the rest going to come from?So far the govt. has been totally silent on a complete energy plan for the country (only Tamilnadu has said anything and come out in favour of offshore windmills) and our dearly beloved PM has only pleasing Dubya Bush on his mind.While I personally have my reservations and suspicions about the larger implications connected with this deal and the role and motives of the good apothecary of Nuclear-snake-oil,Dr.Singh; who has not been completely honest with the country on the details,nuclear power which is a key component of our energy production,can bring us neither energy salvation nor security.It also baffles me why our strategic nuclear programme and foreign policy has been mentioned so many times,as if it were part of the iceberg unseen below water.

We are going to pay for a very hefty sum if we go the whole hog as mentioned for this imported nuclear fuel and power plant technology,costing billions and producing power at a questionable cost.It also through these imports threatens to derail us from our indigenous ,nuclear independence plan proposed by Dr.Homi Bhabha using the FBT route.The unmentioned,unspoken worry is that if we do anything (exploding N-bombs,devloping ICBMs with a range that can reach the US) that goes against the "spirit" of the deal,which is not mentioned in words,we will have to pay the penalty through sanctions,etc. at a later date,with demands for the return of fuel,eqpt.,etc.,which would cripple the new plants and send the billions spent,like Enron at Dabhol ,into the septic tank.Like the good mahatma,we will from now on have to be nuclear celibates,having castrated ourselves in the bargain,thanks to Dr.Singh.

The sound and fury generated by our politicos in the process,if only was somehow convertable into energy,would suffice for all our power needs! The fun and games going on right now in the headcount of farm animals truly displays the choice characteristics of Indian democracy.
Excerpt below from veteran politico Natwar Singh from the NIEexp.
http://www.newindpress.com/newspages.as ... in+Article&

PM out of tune with reality
Thursday July 10 2008 10:07 IST
K Natwar Singh

The main topic being discussed in urban India in general and metropolitan India in particular is the nuclear deal with the United States of America. Only three parties that have seriously analysed, discussed and to a great degree understood the wider implications and ramifications of the nuclear deal are the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Left Parties.

The regional parties in reality have not even studied the text of the deal. The leader of the Samajwadi party was candid enough to declare on TV that he had not read the document.

The Prime Minister is desperate. Had he discussed the deal with all political parties six months earlier he would not have been in the corner he now finds himself in. The moment the Samajwadi Party asked for some details on the nuclear deal he immediately sent his National Security Adviser to brief the leaders of the Samajwadi Party.

My sincere and unsolicited suggestion to the Prime Minister is to get a national consensus on the deal. He says he will come to the Lok Sabha for its “approval”after going to the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group—NSG. This is not acceptable to the CPM and other leftist parties and the Bharatiya Janata Party. By going to the IAEA and the NSG the Prime Minister shall partly operationalise the deal. The Left parties have rightly rejected this prime ministerial sleight of hand.

The other point which the Prime Minister put out that he would face a very awkward and embarrassing situation in Japan, —without an assurance that the deal would go through. Since such assurance was forthcoming, he said he would go ahead with the deal and would tell that to George W Bush, who is now worldwide (except with Manmohan Singh) a lame duck President, with a popularity rating of 29 per cent.

I might here add that Manmohan Singh went to the G-8 as a second class invitee. Only full G-8 members sit on the main table. India is not a full member of the G-8. With a first class political crisis on his hands the Prime Minister should be in India and have not gone on a three- day jaunt at the tax payers expense on a 747, with a team of nearly a hundred people, most of them from his security detail.

Now, the Prime Minister has one more stone round his neck: Congressman Ackerman from the US House of Representatives. He announced on Thursday night in New Delhi, that it might already be too late for the nuclear deal to go through the US Congress. So why this hurry on the part of the Prime Minister? He owes it to the country to explain the rationale for this unseemly hurry. One fact glares in the face of the Prime Minister. His authority is vastly eroded. His writ does not even run with his senior cabinet colleagues. The UPA may carry on till November or February 2009, but it has for practical purposes become a lameduck outfit. That is, regrettably the bottom line.

Instead of spending so much time and energy on a dubious nuclear deal, he, his finance minister and the deputy chairman of the planning commission should be working over time to bring down inflation and the price rise which is making life so very difficult for the aam admi. All three are obsessed with the 9 per cent growth mantra. But this economic bubble of 9per cent is going to burst sooner than later. The rise in oil prices is going to hit us very hard. Some drastic and serious austerity measures are overdue.

The Prime Minister has been in office for four years and one month and fifteen days, what has he done to meaningfully improve infrastructure, education, power, removal of slums, (nearly 20% of the citizens of the four metropolitan cities live in slums). Millions of Indian do not have potable water, medical facilities in rural India are almost non-existent.

Five northern Indian states go to the polls in less than six months: Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jammu and Kashmir. The Congress faces an uphill task in all five states. Karnataka proved decisively that Sonia Gandhi is no longer an electoral asset. Himachal and Gujarat proved that some time ago. Inflation and the rise in prices will bring the Congress down.