http://www.opinionasia.org:80/ASchoolofRedHerrings
OPINION ASIA -- GLOBAL VIEWS ON ASIA
The Indo-US Nuclear Deal: A School of Red Herrings
Sumit Ganguly | 04 Aug 2008
On August 1, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) unanimously voted in support of the US-Indian civilian nuclear agreement. Now the agreement goes before the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) on August 21 for a second approval before the final nod from the United States Senate. Already a small handful of members of the NSG, most notably, Austria, Brazil, Iraq, Japan and Switzerland have expressed some reservations about the deal because of India’s failure to accede to the long-stalled Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
As the agreement makes its way to the NSG, the ardent members of the nonproliferation brigade are now gearing up for a last-ditch effort to hobble it from reaching the United States Senate for final ratification. To that end they have gathered a school of red herrings that they intend to let loose in an effort to prevent the deal’s passage to its final destination.
Their arguments are tired and specious. Nevertheless, unless they are forthrightly addressed they could easily sway popular and elite opinion in a number of key countries thereby contributing to the demise of this revolutionary agreement. What exactly are the dubious claims that are trotted out with predictable regularity?
First and foremost, the critics claim that this deal rewards India despite its unwillingness to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). This is perhaps the most tired argument amongst those that have been arrayed to undermine the deal. As the NPT was being negotiated in Geneva under the auspices of the Eighteen Nation Disarmament Committee (ENDC), India vigorously stated its objections. The India delegate, Vishnu Trivedi, forcefully argued that India would not be a party to a multilateral agreement that created a fundamentally discriminatory regime. In the end, the regime placed no constraints on the nuclear weapons states but prohibited others from acquiring nuclear weapons. Consequently, when the NPT went into force on January 1, 1970, India chose to stay outside its ambit. Since India was never a signatory to the NPT, there is no reason for it to adhere to its expectations.
Second, the critics argue that making an exception for India will weaken the NPT regime. They contend that other states which chose to enter the regime may now re-consider their choices if similar exceptions are not made for them. This argument also defies logic. These states, of their own accord, chose to accede to the NPT. If they now find the demands of the NPT regime too onerous, they can invoke “the supreme national interest” clause in the NPT and withdraw from it after a span of six months. They will then be at liberty to pursue any bilateral nuclear deal that they can negotiate.
Third, in a similar vein, it is now alleged that Iran, Pakistan and North Korea, are now demanding that they too be allowed to pursue nuclear commerce alluding to the exception that is about to be granted to India. It is hardly surprising that these states have resorted to this ploy. However, they are in no position to place themselves on an equal diplomatic and moral footing with India.
Iran has been playing a game of deception and dissimulation with the IAEA and the international community about its nuclear enrichment program. North Korea has been an egregious proliferator of both weapons designs and ballistic missiles. Pakistan, of course, was the source of the infamous A.Q. Khan network. Unlike India, both Iran and North Korea, were signatories to the NPT but chose, knowingly and willingly, to violate its terms. Consequently, they cannot expect the same treatment from the global community. Pakistan, while not an NPT member, has nevertheless been a feckless proliferator of nuclear weapons technology. In this connection, it needs to be underscored that despite offers of oil and natural gas from Iran and Libya, India, an energy-starved state, firmly rebuffed their offers to provide them with nuclear weapons technology. A less scrupulous regime would have gleefully pursued these possibilities to alleviate acute energy shortages.
Fourth, some critics contend that the Indo-US nuclear deal not only undermines the cause of nonproliferation, but is actually a ruse for bolstering India against a resurgent People’s Republic of China (PRC). This may or may not have been the goal of some members of the Bush administration. However, discussions with members of India’s diplomatic and strategic community makes clear that they have do not share this goal despite their deep misgivings about the PRC’s growing military capabilities and its future strategic intentions.
A fifth and final objection needs to be addressed. Critics with long memories are fond of dredging up an allegation that India diverted spent nuclear fuel from a Canadian supplied nuclear reactor to pursue its initial nuclear test in 1974. There may be some element of truth to this allegation. However, even if this did occur, India violated the spirit but not the letter of the Indo-Canadian nuclear agreement. In any case, because of this putative violation, the major industrial powers formed the NSG in 1975. The NSG then proceeded to place the most draconian restrictions on any form of nuclear commerce with India and also denied it various forms of dual-use technology. If India did violate the spirit of the agreement, it has paid a very high price indeed for its actions.
Far from undermining the cause of nonproliferation, this deal has the potential for bringing India into the ambit of the legal regime governing nuclear commerce. It will make the workings of 14 out of 22 of India’s nuclear reactors subject to IAEA inspections and also lead India to tighten its existing export controls. Most importantly, according to some estimates, it may enable the country to generate as much as 25 percent of the nation’s electricity by 2050.
It is time to ignore the partisan carping of the nonproliferation community which fails to recognise India’s unique credentials. It can only be hoped that the 45-nation NSG will speedily grant its imprimatur to this extraordinary agreement. Failing to do so would do little to further the cause of nonproliferation.
Sumit Ganguly is a Professor of Political Science and Director of Research of the Center on American and Global Security at Indiana University, Bloomington.