Caucasus Crisis

[NRao]

American precedents in both the former Yugoslavia and Iraq have perhaps given Russia a blank cheque on a far more moral footing. Russia will carve out a space for itself (per rules applied in the Balkans) and now that she has a good reason (as opposed to one cooked up in the case of Iraq) RU will (and rightfully so) deal with Georgia as a future threat that RU needs to control for her own survival.

[Kati]

If I were Putin/Medvedev, Id as for at least:

1. Total change of leadership, resignation of the cabinet and parliament, and fresh elections

2. Handover of Sakashvili and others, determined to be involved in this assault, to Russian authorities

3. Reparations to be paid annually for rebuilding Tskhinvali and to pay the families of the deceased

4. Restriction of Georgian military to 4000, infantry only

5. An undertaking from the new government not to join NATO, and complete right of refusal to Russia of any training activities to be undertaken by Georgian military by foreign forces

Add number 6:
Baku-Ceyhan BP pipeline under full Russian control.

IMHO, Russia doesn't want to destroy the pipeline, and if it did it would have taken less than 51 missiles
targetting the pipeline. Probably it's just scaring BP and others away. From Russia's point of view, saving
the pipeline and controlling it will be more useful in days to come. It'll dominance over Azheri oil and
making the west Europe pay for any further misadventure will enhance. So, right now it's showing off a bit of 'shock and awe'.

Great going Putin boss!

[rsingh]

Strange there are no Western media presence in South Assteia. So CNN,BBC, SKYNEWS are showing human suffering from Geogian side only..........that much for impartiality. How come none of the European intellectual is not questioning the presence of EU flag behind that CIA trained maroon.
I am not racist but anybody who has crossed road with a Georgian.........will be happy with the state of Georgian affairs now. In 90's Georgians ( with Ajarbizanians) were dons in Moscow. I personally was offered by them " Red Murcury (Hg) and Bazooka" in 1992. One of my friend who annoyed them was tied up on his bed and burned with Iron. They wanted to kill him but one of them liked Hindi films and spared his life. Again bad guys are in every society but Georgians are special..........as demonstrated by El Presedente.

[ramana]

Not to mention Stalin was a Georgian!

[Rahul M]

Not to mention Stalin was a Georgian!

that's enough example to convince me !

[satya]

Russia bids to rid Georgia of its folly

One word explains why the United States, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union have obliged themselves to sit on their hands, while Russia's defends its citizens, and national interests, in the Caucasus, and liberates Georgians from the folly of their unpopular president, Mikheil Saakashvili. That word is Kosovo.

Russia sent troops into the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia to take on Georgian troops that had advanced into the territory. Four days of heavy fighting have seen thousands of casualties and the Georgian forces withdrawing. Russian troops were reported on Monday to be continuing fighting in parts of Georgia, including around the capital Tbilisi. Eight hundred years of Caucasian history explain why Saakashvili has brought such destruction and ignominy on his countrymen over the past few days. Queen Tamar, the greatest of the Georgian sovereigns (1184-1213), is responsible for the habit Georgian rulers have displayed for the past millennium of treating neighboring Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ossetia and the Black Sea coast of Turkey as protectorates. But as Tamar also taught her countrymen, Georgian ambition always runs out of gas when the neighbors prove to be just as ambitious, richer or tougher. The number 300 explains what tougher means - that's the count of Russian artillery pieces that have been deployed to South Ossetia alone, once Saakashvili dispatched his United States and Israel-trained troops into action at Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. That push, according to Russian military thinking, was not intended to hold Tskhinvali for Georgia, but to destroy it, and withdraw swiftly back into Georgia - ending the South Ossetian secession by liquidating its people.

Just how tough Russia's war aims are now - as distinct from the methods - remains to be seen. According to Georgian sources, there is no safe haven for the attackers in Georgia itself, as Russian artillery pounds Georgian military units within range; the Russian air force bombs every military unit and depot on Georgian territory; and the Russian Black Sea fleet counter-fires against Georgian naval vessels off Ochamchire, the Abkhazian regional port.
For all Russians, not only those with relatives in Ossetia, the near-total destruction by Georgian guns of Tskhinvali is a war crime. The deaths of about 2,000 civilians in the Georgian attack, and the forced flight of about 35,000 survivors from the town - the last census of Tskhinvali's population reported 30,000 - has been described by Russian leaders, and is understood by Russian public opinion, as a form of genocide. Ninety percent of the town's population are Russian citizens.

To Russians, the Georgian attack of August 8 looks like the very same "ethnic cleansing", which the US and European powers have treated as a crime against humanity, when committed on the former territory of federal Yugoslavia.

But Russians view the international war that broke up Yugoslavia as a practice run for breaking up the Russian Caucasus, first by arming the Chechen secessionist Dzhokar Dudayev; then by financing anti-Russian terrorism in the Russian provinces of Chechnya and Ingushetia; and now by the Georgian military thrust against South Ossetia.

Since the US and the European Union have so recently compelled Serbia to accept the Albanian takeover of Serbia's Kosovo province, the overwhelming Russian view is that this will not be allowed to happen again. "Ossetia is not Kosovo" is a widespread refrain in Moscow today.

"If [former Yugoslav president] Slobodan Milosevic should be put on trial, the opinion here is - so too should Saakashvili," says a leading Moscow analyst.

But is it now a Russian war aim to drive Saakashvili from power? Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly told US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice over the weekend that Saakashvili "must go". Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, on a mediation mission on Monday between the Georgian and Russian capitals, will hear the same view in Moscow.

The Russian argument is that, since coming to power in 2003, Saakashvili has militarized his country with US, NATO and Israeli arms, military training and money, for no purpose except to threaten Russia, and the minority nationalities of the region, who seek the protection of Moscow - the Abkhazians and the Ossetians.

Saakashvili, the Russian argument runs, has initiated military escalation over the past year because his political base has cracked and his domestic support is dwindling. The Georgian political opposition at home, and in exile abroad, agrees. They charge the president and his family, including the powerful Timur Alasaniya, Saakashvili's uncle, of growing corruptly rich off the arms trade and of seizing the country's resource, port and trading concessions for themselves and their supporters. Alasaniya, brother to Saakashvili's mother, holds the official position of Georgian representative to a United Nations Commission on Disarmament in New York (no relation to Irakly Alasaniya, Georgia's ambassador to the United Nations).
The leaders of the Georgian opposition nearly succeeded in toppling Saakashvili last autumn. The president was forced to impose military rule in Tbilisi, while his former defense minister, Irakly Okruashvili, publicly accused him of murder and corruption. Okruashvili is currently in Paris, where he has been granted political asylum by the French government. In June, a French court rejected Saakashvili's warrant for the arrest and extradition of his former friend and now bitterest critic. Okruashvili is uncompromised by early career links to Moscow, unlike a number of political party leaders in Tbilisi. Okruashvili is a likely candidate to replace Saakashvili, if and when Georgian public opinion turns against the president.
But this cannot happen while Russian military operations continue against Georgian targets. Leading opposition figures inside the country, like Shalva Natelashvili, head of the Georgian Labor Party, believe they must remain silent for the time being. According to Irakly Kakabadze, an independent opposition organizer based in New York, "Once the bombing stops, I believe Saakashvili will not survive." In the spring, Kakabadze was arrested and imprisoned in Tbilisi by Saakashvili security men trying to disrupt a street protest against the president's regime.

Public opinion in Georgia already pins the blame on Saakashvili for the folly and loss of the Ossetian adventure. Even before it began last week, opposition leaders were calling for an end to the militarization of the country. However, as one opposition leader said on Monday, the bombing has to stop, "Otherwise, the Russians are making Saakashvili the victim."

The problem for Russians is that halting the military campaign doesn't put a stop to Saakashvili's menaces. Nor is there any confidence in Moscow, on either side of the Kremlin wall, that Rice and Kouchner can be trusted to control Saakashvili, even if they promise to do so.
If a ceasefire is agreed this week, Georgians and Russians might then be able to agree that Saakashvili bears personal responsibility for the war that began on August 8. However, neither Saakashvili's domestic critics, nor the Russian government, expect the Americans to abandon their man now - let alone escort him to the war crimes tribunal at The Hague.
With the Georgian presidential alternative Okruashvili under their wing in Paris, what the French do next may bridge the gap which Saakashvili's artillery tore apart last Friday.

[Paul]

Bush's relationship with Putin has been the subject of intense speculation ever since that first meeting in 2001, when Bush reported favorably on Putin's soul. In particular, there's been some concern -- see, for instance, Jonathan S. Landay writing for McClatchy Newspapers in October 2007 -- that Putin reeled Bush in using techniques honed during his days with the KGB.

Indeed, when the two meet, it's pretty clear who comes off as in charge. For instance, in 2005, a reporter asked Putin whether Bush's chiding about his anti-Democratic actions would result in any policy changes. Putin replied: "Some of his ideas could be taken into account in my work. And I will pay due attention to them. . . . Some other ideas I will not comment on." With that, Putin winked at Bush, and Bush chuckled.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... inionsbox1

Looks like Putin pulled off a Mush on Bush!!!

[Gerard]

The US ambassador to the UN Khalizidad was outside the UNSC room and said "the days of removing the leader of a country by force are over". It seems he then realized what he was saying and then ended it with "in Europe".


The Russian ambassador reminded them of NATO attacks on the bridges over the Danube and on Belgrade during the war in Kosovo.

[JaiS]

Thread cleaned up, unsourced posts removed.

Russia allegedly launches cyberattack on Georgia

As Russian tanks roll into Georgian territory, Georgian web sites are also under attack. The Georgian embassy in the United Kingdom has accused Russia of launching denial of service attacks against Georgian web sites, according to published reports.

Since Russian troops attacked the breakaway Georgian province of South Ossetia on Friday, Georgian sites have been hit with “denial of service” attacks that throw so many packets at the sites that they effectively shut them down.

In response, the Georgian government is posting updates on Blogger in hopes of stirring up sympathy for the former Soviet state in the Caucausus mountains. Poland has posted news from Georgia, including a statement from Georgia’s president, on Poland’s official web site. While there has been no confirmation yet of official Russian involvement, the attacks are similar to the May 2007 “cyber war” between Russia and Estonia.

Last year, I heard a speech at the Black Hat security conference about the matter by Gadi Evron, a former Israel government security manager who was in Tallin, Estonia, at the time of those attacks. He chronicled the attack where large numbers of hackers from Russia attacked Estonian government sites after that country removed a statue of a Russian soldier. The decision provoked rioting by ethnic Russians as well as DoS attacks. In the article, Evron said that NATO has agreed to do research on new ways to respond to future cyber attacks.

Apparently, that’s not going to help Georgia. But a Wired article notes that Georgia has received military training support from the U.S. for years.

[Gerard]

These Georgians could give the Pakis lessons in downhill skiing...

Georgian army flees in disarray as Russians advance

Georgia’s army was in complete disarray tonight after troops and tanks fled the city of Gori in panic and abandoned it to the Russians without firing a shot.

Residents watched in horror as their army abandoned its positions after a day of increasingly aggressive exchanges of fire along the border with South Ossetia, the breakaway region now fully under Russian control. Jeeps and pick-up trucks filled with Georgian soldiers raced through the streets, their occupants frantically signalling to civilians that they too should flee.

Soldiers left by any means available. Dozens of troops clung to cars on the back of a transporter lorry, while five other soldiers fled on one quad bike.

[Gerard]

As President Saakashvili looked up in terror at the Russian helicopter roaring over the besieged town of Gori, with his troops in retreat and Western allies offering no more than words against Moscow, the catastrophic consequences of his decision to take military action in South Ossetia last week could not have been clearer.

[Vick]

Hopefully NATO/US have enough of the right ELINT and SIGINT assets to sniff out Russian emissions from the region to add to the libraries.

[Gerard]

US military surprised by speed, timing of Russia military action

[asprinzl]

I think Putin/Medvedev combo is going for the whole of Georgia. It makes strategic sense in the scheme of the Great Game scenario. Limiting herself to holding sway over only Abkhazia and S.Ossetia does not make much strategic sense.

If Moscow controls Georgia via ala Kadyrov type leadership, Moscow would kill four birds with one stone.

1) If one look at the map of the oil pipeline crossing through Georgia, one would find that it would have costed BP and cohorts shorter route to build the pipeline from Azerbaijan to Armenia and then to Turkey. But there was a problem. Azeris and Armenians are enemies and Turkey is Turkic brother of the Azeris. Turkey has put Armenia on an economic blockade. Poor land locked Armenia survives on Russian largesses and money send from the diaspora. Thus Armenia is preety close to Russia. A pipeline crossing through Armenia would come under Russian sway. Thus the powers that be built the pipeline over Georgia. Russian jetx or long range artilery could have finished off the pipelines anytime they wanted. But this far they have "missed" despite firing nearly fifty missiles in the direction of the pipelines. Who are we kidding. The Russians are rattling the west. They don't want to destroy it but want to control it. The message is clear. Keep your anger on the level of verbal rhetorics or the pipelines would go up in flames.

2) Georgia had been the land route through which lots of military man power and war materiel from Islamic world and especially Turkey flowed to the Chechen rebels especially the Argun Gorge. Chechenya is by and large pacified now but that does not mean in the future there will not be trouble. Russian control of the territory through which war supplies flows would spell trouble for the rebellion. Orcourse Russian presence in Georgia would expose them to Georgian guerillas. On the other hand Russian absense from Georgia would expose them to guerillas in Chechnya. The lesser of the two evil probably is Georgia partly because Turkey and the west cannot live in uncertainty over the security of the pipelines caught in a proctracted guerilla warfare. It would be in the collective interest of all parties to have relative peace even if under Russian influence.

3) Russian control of Georgia would put Nato plans there in shambles. As of now, Nato has already lost credibility among many Georgians. Georgian blood expended on the sands dunes of Iraq in the name of Nato has been a waste. A controlled disemination of information in the long run and probably Russia would have Georgian on their side (my speculation).

4) As of now Nato's plan for a beachead for expansion into the CAR is on hold.

Without Russian cooperation, there is absolutely didly squat a non-military solution is possible on the Iran nuke question. As of now, Russian anger at western hypocrisy meant a non-military solution is not in the horizon. The crisis in Georgia only hastened a military solution in Iran but the USA is caught up in way too many webs to impose a military solution. That leaves Israel. Israel is not in position to antogonize Russia. Western hypocrisy on issues like Kosovo and Georgia complicates Israel's position.

When Iran captured a British ship and paraded british sailors, a timid Britain was in tears for a solution. If Iran had captured an American ship and paraded American sailors, America may or may not respond militarily. If Iran had captured Russian ship and paraded Russian sailors, I would bet my last dollar that Russia would definitely respond militarily even if the costs are high. Though weaker than the USA both economically and in conventional force, Russia is a nation of more resolve. It was this resolve we saw in the Beslan. They don't care for the cost. This is a nation Israel has not intention to antogonize. However, the crisis only makes an Israeli military action against Iran more certain.

Avram

[Vick]

Though weaker than the USA both economically and in conventional force, Russia is a nation of more resolve. It was this resolve we saw in the Beslan. They don't care for the cost. This is a nation Israel has not intention to antogonize. However, the crisis only makes an Israeli military action against Iran more certain.

Absolutely true!

[Gerard]

Russia gives Georgia an ultimatum

Russia issued an ultimatum to Georgia on Monday to disarm its troops along the boundary with the pro-Russian separatist enclave of Abkhazia as Russian tanks rolled across the internal border and occupied a military base in western Georgia.

[A_Gupta]

BRFers may enjoy these two pieces:

1. Dimitri Simes
Nixon Center President
http://www.thewashingtonnote.com/archiv ... st_by_d_1/

2. Professor Charles King and Glenn Greenwald
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/ ... ndex1.html

[NRao]

CNN has had - for the past 2-3 hours - a string of "experts" are blaming RU for the problem, when G sent American trained troops into action!! Some have even justified the attack on Iraq!!!!

This 3 AM predicament is showing how impotent some world leaders really are.

And considering the need for RU WRT Iran, etc, what was the need to stir the pot in some God forsaken place?

[Gerard]

It seems the BBC have edited the video of Saakashvili in Gori. The last two seconds, where he look upwards in sheer terror, have been removed.

[Shivani]

I think Putin/Medvedev combo is going for the whole of Georgia. It makes strategic sense in the scheme of the Great Game scenario. Limiting herself to holding sway over only Abkhazia and S.Ossetia does not make much strategic sense.

Agreed, this opportunity should not be missed.

1) If one look at the map of the oil pipeline crossing through Georgia, one would find that it would have costed BP and cohorts shorter route to build the pipeline from Azerbaijan to Armenia and then to Turkey. But there was a problem.

Here's the map we want to see:

• Russia isn't getting any oil from Baku.
• The Turkish section is out of order due to Kurdish attack. It will take them another couple of weeks to repair.
• Georgia's Supsa can carry only about half the amount of oil compared to BTC.
• Then there's the Sangachal terminal itself.

The common thread in all this is that British Petroleum is the company with most at stake. The government of Azerbaijan also has everything at stake because they want to be able to export the oil and gas. Chevron is minor partner in BTC pipeline but otherwise can recover even if the entire project collapsed.

Given that:

1. This entire project -the revolutions, the pipelines- were made possible by extremely close cooperation amongst BP on one hand and Governments of Azerbaijan, UK, USA on the other
2. The sheer suicidal and lunatic nature of Georgian agression, which has ensured that the entire project might crash, or survive on Russian largesse

A conspiracy theorist might begin to wonder whether this really is a hit job against British Petroleum rather than an attack on Russia.

Who resents BP, and wants it cut down to size?

[Karan Dixit]

I think Georgians are worse than Pakis. Pakis were able to put up a fight for two weeks. These guys surrendered within a week.

[Baljeet]

There are two crisis happening in this world, One in Georgia and other in India. In georgia, russian citizens were killed, Russia came out to kick ass of culprit and murderer. In India, Free Loaders of Kashmir are harrassing their own citizens and our own Army is shooting their own citizens and protecting Kritdhan Kashmiris. The Indian Political leaders want to sit on Gaddi no matter what cost, they will sacrifice this nations majority dignity just to look good even though Pakis are violating and killing our soldiers, but no retaliation can be ordered because MMS brain is clogged by his pagri, defacto PM is in China, Advani can't makeup his mind, commies are licking their chops. What a nation called India--it can't be called a soft nation but a limp nation.

[Shivani]

These guys surrendered within a week.

Don't be so harsh to Saakashvili & Co. Running away from the Russians is the only rational thing they have done in the past few days.

[Karan Dixit]

but no retaliation can be ordered because MMS brain is clogged by his pagri,

It seems like you are engaging in insulting "pagri". I found it offensive and I am not even a Sikh. Sikh members will definitely find it offensive. (My humble opinion.)

[Singha]

Putin criticized the United States for viewing Georgia as the victim instead of the aggressor, and for airlifting Georgian troops back home from Iraq on Sunday.

"Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying several Shiite villages," Putin said in Moscow. "And the incumbent Georgian leaders who razed ten Ossetian villages at once, who ran elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilian alive in their sheds — these leaders must be taken under protection."

[asprinzl]

My Israeli sources told me that the US plane(s) transporting the 2000 Georgian soldiers back to Georgia did not only had soldiers on board but a lot of air defense equipments. Cannot confirm it but take it for what it is worth.
AS

[Muppalla]

Stratfor acknowledges Russia defeated US, not Georgian army in South Ossetia

The USA acknowledged that Russia had virtually defeated the US, but not the Georgian army in South Ossetia. US instructors have spent four years training the Georgian army for an attack against Russian citizens. The US administration refused to help Saakashvili, because the true goal of the new game in the Caucasus is absolutely different.

Experts of Stratfor, the so-called Shadow CIA, stated that the Russian army had not only preserved its battling capacity but also proved to the whole world that was it capable of defeating an armed enemy, trained by US instructors.

A report from Stratfor particularly mentions that the operation in South Ossetia has exercised three things. First off, Russia has proved to have the army capable of conducting successful operations, in which many Western observers doubted before. Secondly, the Russians have showed that they can defeat the forces trained by US advisors. Finally, Russia has shown that the USA and NATO do not find themselves in the situation when they can interfere into a conflict from the military point of view.

At the same time, the experts consider it to be a military demonstration of Russia to former republics of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine, the entire Caucasus and Central Asia. In addition, they see a hidden warning to Poland and the Czech Republic against the background of a possible deployment of elements of the US missile defense system in those countries. However, the experts exclude an opportunity for Moscow to organize an intervention against some of the above-mentioned countries.

Stratfor’s statement means that the fight is over for Georgia and that the US administration is not going to cross the red line in its relations with Russia. Saakashvili’s hopes for NATO to become involved in a conflict with Russia went up in smoke.

The USA is pursuing absolutely different goals, and the creation of the Great Georgia is surely not on its list. The Republicans organized the provocation to portray Russia as a monster on the globe on the threshold of the November elections. This plays into the hands of John McCain, who openly says that “Russia’s imperial ambition” needs to be curbed.

This way or other, the USA has used the small country of Georgia as a toy.
Sergei Balmasov
Pravda.ru

[Gerard]

Georgia: Vladimir Putin sends emphatic message of global importance

[Gerard]

Russian pushes rocket launchers, tanks to Georgia

Russia's military is giving priority to Uragan (Hurricane) multiple rocket launchers on the serpentine mountain roads near Buron, just north of the Russian border with South Ossetia, the Reuters reporter said.

[NRao]

AS,

What purpose would such toys serve? Even at the start, IMHO, they would not have served any purpose.

This is perhaps the biggest miscalculation, on the part of Georgia, after the Iraq incident. Even "miscalculation" is an under word/statement.

A report from Stratfor particularly mentions that the operation in South Ossetia has exercised three things. First off, Russia has proved to have the army capable of conducting successful operations, in which many Western observers doubted before. Secondly, the Russians have showed that they can defeat the forces trained by US advisors.

I find this astounding.

RUians WERE drained and to some extent they are catching up, but, by no stretch of anyone's imagination is their army incapable. One could, perhaps, make an argument for their navy and perhaps the air force.

May be this way the seed to their miscalculation, in addition to the "training" the Georgian army(?) received.

Amazing that trained, professional people would even think like this.

(On TSP, I think their army is capable, it is their leaders (including armed forces) that are suspect.)

[Vick]

That Pravda piece is hilarious! This Georgian episode is reason enough for Ukraine and Poland to head westward.

By most counts, this looks like Saakashvili over interpreted his importance in the West. The US won't stand by an ally that goes rogue and does something stupid like provoke the Bear. Also, the US only provokes the Bear in ways that the Bear can't respond back effectively, ie the missile defense. By Giving Russia this opportunity on a platter, Saakashvili dug his own grave, figuratively, if not literally.

[Gerard]

Georgia: Chaos and panic as people flee the Russian advance

However, the retreat seemed inexplicable. Thousands of Georgian troops were on the move, but the enemy chasing them seemed invisible. There were thousands of Russian troops near Gori, the Georgian soldiers said. But there was no sign of them.

Some of them seemed most angry with Mr Saakashvili for starting an assault on South Ossetia. “Saakashvili is responsible for 2,000 deaths,” said one old man. “He needs to be killed like a chicken.” Eteri said: “Who’s to blame more: Saakashvili or Putin? It’s hard to differentiate between the two, to be honest.”

[Gerard]

‘Where Is Bush?’

Georgian military officials and civilians ask why the West hasn't intervened as Russia moves in.

Err...

[NRao]

I wonder who else had a finger in the pie!!

IF this is a pure Georgian miscalculation, then we better learn to live with a trigger on the price of oil. This is no simple miscalculation. With hundreds of advisors and trainers, something had to give.

G,

That pic is not right.

[Gerard]

The head of Georgia's National Security Council, Alexander Lomaia, told NEWSWEEK on Monday, "If all countries together said [to Russia], 'We are not buying your gas and we'll exclude you from all international organizations, you will be an international pariah,' [then] they would stop."

Reminds me of the Paki fantasy that the OIC will impose an oil embargo on India.... an exaggerated sense of self importance, of nurtured grievance, of entitlement...

[Satya_anveshi]

Guys: here's a scenario: Which way does the wind blow if Sakashvilli, a guy dumped by the west, meets his maker. Will this be a shot in the arm for the CNN propagandus? If he lives longer, it will only exacerbate the situation some of you have rightly mentioned and which we always knew that west givest two hoots for its chamchas when the going gets tough. Will sympathy revert in favor of Georgian "people" by this event.

Musharraf might be exactly in the same boat, let's see on Aug 11 when the impeachment is supposed to happen.

Just a scenario and thinking out loud.

Admins: If this kind of scenario post isn't kosher, please delete it. Thanks.

[Singha]

Thousands of Georgian troops were on the move, but the enemy chasing them seemed invisible. There were thousands of Russian troops near Gori, the Georgian soldiers said. But there was no sign of them.

shades of Asimov's The Mule....invisible but ever present...inspiring mental
collapse by the mere mention of his name.

going by the headlong panic in georgia you'd think chengis khan himself and a
million horsemen were riding hard from the steppe.

[Gerard]

The National Security Council's Lomaia said the Russians have bombed at least 15 Georgian sites including military bases, cities and villages. He said he was most concerned about the Russian Army's Tochka missile, which was deployed in Tskhinvali and shown on Russian TV. "In Georgia, the Tochka can reach the five largest cities," Lamaia explained. "They have not shot it yet, but why did they bring it?"

[Singha]

One of suspected uses of the OTR-21 Tochka in combat came on October 21, 1999 during the Second Chechen War. On that date U.S. military surveillance systems tracked a launch of five to six short-range missiles from within Russia that landed in the city of Grozny. The missiles struck a marketplace and maternity ward, resulting in at least 143 fatalities. [1] A Russian spokesman said the busy market place was targeted because it was used by rebels as an arms bazaar

[enqyoob]

Looks like Russia will occupy the western half of Georgia, connect South Ossetia and Abkhazian and Armenia, and leave Saakashvili cowering behind his bunker wall inside Tbilisi.

Avraam: Why didn't the Russians hit the transports returning from Iraq, full of soldiers?