Caucasus Crisis

Locked
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Bush team bungled big time on Georgia fiasco
Third, the Georgian army did not stand and fight: It fell apart. It had the advantage of several immensely strong bottleneck defense positions, such as the Roki Tunnel and the Kodori Gorge, where it could have made a stand. It could have fought hard in the town of Gori, as Palestinian forces fiercely contested the Israeli army in Jenin on the West Bank in 2002. It did none of those things: Its remnants simply fled back to Tbilisi in panic.
Raju

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Raju »

The Ongoing War Against Reason
American Mercenary Captured By Russians


NATO instructor taken hostage with Georgians amid reports of U.S. military commanding thousands of mercs in proxy war
Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
Monday, August 11, 2008

An American mercenary has been captured by Russian forces along with a number of Georgian soldiers according to a report from the Russian news website Izvestia, providing more evidence that the U.S. and NATO are covertly supporting the Georgian army in a proxy war with Russia.

According to the report, the mercenary is an African-American who is a NATO instructor and an ordinance specialist. He has now been transferred to the Russian base of Vladikavkaz.

The story also backs up previous reports of dead black Americans having been found in Tskhinvali, the capital city of South Ossetia.

U.S. soldiers recently conducted training programs where they instructed Georgian soldiers how to deal with unexploded ordinance as part of the Georgia Train and Equip Program.

Another report from the Russia daily Kommersant states that thousands of mercenaries from numerous different countries are fighting on the Georgian side and are being “commanded by the U.S. military instructors.”

“The U.S. military instructors directly command and coordinate actions of mercenaries without being involved in actual fighting, the source specified. According to intelligence data, there are roughly 1,000 military instructors of the United States in Georgia,” states the report.

“Task force of Russia has annihilated a few groups of mercenaries. Some of mercenaries have been captured, and investigators are working with them, the source said.”

In a related development, Russia FSB has detained 10 Georgian intelligence service officers who were allegedly preparing terrorist attacks inside Russia.

“We have detained 10 agents of the Georgian special services who were spying on military facilities and preparing terrorist attacks, including on Russian territory,” Alexander Bortnikov said at a meeting with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
http://startnow72.wordpress.com/2008/08 ... -russians/
Johann
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2075
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Johann »

A few basic observations

- The current Georgian leadership has *completely* misunderstood what US support for Georgian membership in NATO is about. The Bush administration has to ask itself what sort of partner it chose in this government.

- The Caucasus are traditionally a very, very nasty place when it comes to ethnic conflicts, but historically not as bloody as the Balkans in the scale of the killing. Much of the Caucasus remains essentially organised along clan and tribal lines.

- If the Russians are thinking clearly (and they seem to be), they will pull their troops back largely to areas where the local population is anti-Georgian in sentiment. That would be a replay of Transdniestria (Moldova) and Abkhazia in the early 1990s. Anything else will lead to a *very* costly insurgency of the sort Russia can not afford to fight on multiple fronts.

- The size of Russia's sphere of influence along its Western edge has always been contested by Western Europe. The only exception was when Western Europe itself was threatened by local hegemons such as Napoleonic France, or the Kaiser's Germany.

Russia's imperial expansion in to non-Slavic areas from Peter the Great's time onwards have always taken tremendous repression to maintain. Poland and Finland were the first to regain independence, and the Baltics followed. Finland has maintained independence by keeping relations with Russia friendly. Whatever route the Baltics and other non-Slavic states follow, the most Russia can realistically hope to regain eventually is Belarus and Ukraine.

- There are hawks and doves in both Russia and the West. At the end of the day, Russia is now driven by economic rather than ideological forces. While looking strong is politically good for Mevedev/Putin and the Kremlin, they have to keep the cost of all conflicts reasonable.

p.s. Dear Spinster, what would you like to know?
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by svinayak »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSVEckdNOFk

Very Simple. Georgia attacked S. Ossetia. Russia defends Russian citizens and peacekeepers in S. Ossetia.
Secretary Rice visited Georgia just last month (on the web, see U.S. State Department's press release "Remarks With Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, Tbilisi, Georgia, July 10, 2008"). While she called for a "basis of principles that respect that territorial integrity,
that respect the need for them to be resolved peacefully," the next phrase was a kind of slip of the tongue: "We have noted concerns that violence should be -- should not be carried out by any party." I think her visit waved a green light for Georgia to do as it pleased. It reminds me of another American envoy who visited Saddam Hussein right before he invaded Kuwait. It looks like the Secretary used Georgia to test Russia at this particular moment, distract the campaign season and reboost oil prices just as they were beginning to fall. It seems selfish and inhumane.

Stuart M. Leiderman
Vick
BRFite
Posts: 753
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Vick »

From all accounts, the Georgian govt gave a poor showing of itself, from top to bottom. From Saakashvili's gross misjudgement in initiating combat to the Georgian army's downhill skiing.

But can we realy blame the Georgians? Better armies with better training and better leadership have succumbed to the Russian army through out history.

Major Georgian mistakes:
- Thinking that NATO/US will initiate combat with Russia on Georgia's behalf
- Authorizing the killing of civilians
- Killing Russian soldiers (definite Russian redline)
- Not demolishing the Roki tunnel at the onset of hostilities

US will go to war if Georgia is invaded, just not that Georgia.

From FT
Why Russia's response to Georgia was right
By Sergei Lavrov
August 12, 2008 7:52:00 PM



For some of those witnessing the fighting in the Caucasus over the past few days, the narrative is straightforward and easy. The plucky republic of Georgia, with just a few million citizens, was attacked by its giant eastern neighbour, Russia. Add to this all the stereotypes of the cold war era, and you are presented with a truly David and Goliath interpretation – with all its accompanying connotations of good and evil. While this version of events is being written in much of the western media, the facts present a different picture.

Let me be absolutely clear. This is not a conflict of Russia's making; this is not a conflict of Russia's choosing. There are no winners from this conflict. Hours before the Georgian invasion, Russia had been working to secure a United Nations Security Council statement calling for a renunciation of force by both Georgia and South Ossetians. The statement that could have averted bloodshed was blocked by western countries.

Last Friday, after the world's leaders had arrived at the Beijing Olympics, Georgian troops launched an all-out assault on the region of South Ossetia, which has enjoyed de facto independence for more than 16 years. The majority of the region's population are Russian citizens. Under the terms of the 1992 agreement to which Georgia is a party, they are afforded protection by a small number of Russian peacekeeping soldiers. The ground and air attack resulted in the killing of peacekeepers and the death of an estimated 1,600 civilians, creating a humanitarian disaster and leading to an exodus of 30,000 refugees. The Georgian regime refused to allow a humanitarian corridor to be established and bombarded a humanitarian convoy. There is also clear evidence of atrocities having been committed – so serious and systematic that they constitute acts of genocide.

There can be little surprise, therefore, that Russia responded to this unprovoked assault on its citizens by launching a military incursion into South Ossetia. No country in the world would idly stand by as its citizens are killed and driven from their homes. Russia repeatedly warned Tbilisi that it would protect its citizens by force if necessary, and its actions are entirely consistent with international law, including article 51 of the UN charter on the right of self-defence.

Russia has been entirely proportionate in its military response to Georgia's attack on Russian citizens and peacekeepers. Russia's tactical objective has been to force Georgian troops out of the region, which is off limits to them under international agreements. Despite Georgia's assertion that it had imposed a unilateral ceasefire, Russian peacekeepers and supporting troops remained under continued attack – a fact confirmed by observers and journalists in the region. Russia had no choice but to target the military infrastructure outside the region being used to sustain the Georgian offensive. Russia's response has been targeted, proportionate and legitimate.

Russia has been accused of using the conflict to try to topple the government and impose control over the country. This is palpable nonsense. Having established the safety of the region, the president has declared an end to military operations. Russia has no intention of annexing or occupying any part of Georgia and has again affirmed its respect for its sovereignty. Over the next few days, on the condition that Georgia refrains from military activity and keeps its forces out of the region, Russia will continue to take the diplomatic steps required to consolidate this temporary cessation of hostilities.

Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's president, has stated that "unless we stop Russia, unless the whole world stops it, Russian tanks will go to any European capital tomorrow", adding on a separate occasion that "it's not about Georgia any more. It's about America". It is clear that Georgia wants this dispute to become something more than a short if bloody conflict in the region. For decision-makers in the Nato countries of the west, it would be worth considering whether in future you want the men and women of your armed services to be answerable to Mr Saakashvili's declarations of war in the Caucasus.

Russia is a member of the Security Council, of the Group of Eight leading industrialised nations and partner with the west on issues as varied as the Middle East, Iran and North Korea. In keeping with its responsibilities as a world power and the guarantor of stability in the Caucasus, Russia will work to ensure a peaceful and lasting resolution to the situation in the region.

The writer is minister of foreign affairs of the Russian Federation
I'm inclined to agree with the bolded portion. NATO/US should not put itself on the line for a leader who has demonstrated a definite lack of strategic insight. Which is even more interesting as someone who's met the man told me that she thought Saakashvili seemed smart.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

there have been some bomb explosions in Sochi in past few days.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Sky News reporter Stuart Ramsay was in Gori yesterday

Panicked Army Beats Hasty Retreat
The rumours spread quickly that the Russians were coming. They weren't, the Russians had bombed the Georgians from the positions that could still fire on the breakaway region of South Ossetia. What was remarkable was the speed of the withdrawal.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

Jovial Russians mount deep incursion into Georgia

Dispatch: Vladimir Putin shows West he can do whatever he wants, whenever he wants. But there are echoes of Balkan-style atrocities in a lawless zone near South Ossetia


By Adrian Blomfield in Orsojani
Last Updated: 6:34PM BST 13 Aug 2008

The Russian soldiers were unusually jovial, waving their hands and pumping their fists at western reporters as their military convoy roared along the highway towards the Georgian capital city of Tbilisi.

This may have been the deepest Russian military incursion into foreign territory since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and yet these soldiers acted as though they were going for a Sunday afternoon jaunt.

In a way, they were.

The moment a 70-strong convoy of infantry fighting vehicles, field guns, military transport trucks and armoured personnel carriers turned out of the strategic town of Gori and onto the main road to Tbilisi, Georgia and many western observers erupted in panic.

No one knew what the Russians were doing or where they were going. Wearing broad smiles and winking conspiratorially, the Russian troops denied they knew their destination until the convoy suddenly rumbled off the highway and down a track towards the village of Orsojani, about 40 miles north of Tbilisi.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister, knew exactly what he was doing. This little incursion was clearly designed to taunt the Georgian president Mikheil Saakasvili, whose air force has been largely destroyed after a humiliating defeat after just five days of war, and mock the West.

Just the night before, Moscow agreed to a ceasefire brokered by Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, who confidently predicted that Russia had "no intention" of remaining in Georgia.

Yet, taking advantage of the first day of peace, Russian troops penetrated deeper into north-eastern Georgia than at any time during the conflict.

Mr Putin was essentially telling the West that he could do whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted. There was also serious intent. By briefly threatening Tbilisi, Mr Putin may have been hoping to distract Western attention from serious Russian breaches of the ceasefire agreement. Russia had already occupied Gori and severed the country's main trade route to the Black Sea. South Ossetian irregulars also took advantage of the chaos to commit civilian killings in Georgian villages, eye witnesses said.

On a day of surreal irony, Mr Putin must also have taken satisfaction from the fact that Chechen troops from the Russian army's 42nd division led the push to Orsojani. Many of these men had fought against Mr Putin when he launched the Second Chechen War in 1999. The Chechens may have been battle hardened, but they were hardly organised. There was an air of chaos in this advance, just as there had been with the Georgian army's headlong retreat two days earlier.

Many of the soldiers in the advance seemed more interested in the western photographers hanging out of windows from cars that careered back and forth along the long, slow line the convoy took.

"Where are you going," the reporters shouted. "To see Saakasvili," one Chechen shouted.


Adding to the chaos, civilian cars and even a horse and cart belonging to fleeing residents of nearby villages tore through the dirt, wending their way manically through the column. Others stood in disbelief and fear, watching the Russian flags fluttering above military trucks pulling anti-aircraft guns and artillery.

At one point, the Russians nearly did make an unintentional advance on Tbilisi with a group of five military trucks missing the turn off to the village of Orsojani. An accident that could have provoked the resumption of war was averted, however, as the Russian soldiers realized they had gone wrong and asked journalists if they had a map.

Further towards the Ossetian frontier, two Russian armoured personnel carriers guarded a checkpoint manned by Chechen soldiers tasked with stopping traffic passing from Georgia's Black Sea ports to Tbilisi.

The Chechens, who were behind trees above the roads, lolled in the shade smoking cigarettes.

"You got any American cigarettes," one asked. "Russian ones are dreadful." From beyond them, smoke rose into the air from burning villages and bursts of automatic gunfire could be heard further down the road.

An old woman stumbled down the road, running painfully in the direction of Tbilisi, blood oozing from her eye. :(

"Chechens and South Ossetians are killing people in the villages," she shouted as she slowly hobbled into the distance.

Russian soldiers claimed that their intervention was motivated by a desire to provide humanitarian assistance. There was little sign of that as Russian tanks destroyed a deserted military base in Gori, again in contravention of the terms of the ceasefire, and turned a blind eye as South Ossetian irregulars looted the town. According to eye-witnesses, there were sprees on villages between Gori and the border.

South Ossetian fighters, their faces covered in balaclavas, also robbed at least three western news teams of their cars at gunpoint.

The official fighting might be over, but the plight of both Georgian and Ossetian civilians could become far more desperate. With some Georgian civilians picking up arms and heading to the front line, the buffer zone protecting South Ossetia that Russia is establishing risks become a scene of Balkan style atrocities.
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

I think point being proven the ossetian and chechen militias need to be kept on
a tighter leash , else atrocities are just going to mount and become uncontrollable.
Vick
BRFite
Posts: 753
Joined: 14 Oct 1999 11:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Vick »

Care must be taken to make sure the Janjaweed effect doesn't occur else, the Russian high moral ground of stopping the civilian killings would be greatly diminished.
pradeepe
BRFite
Posts: 741
Joined: 27 Aug 2006 20:46
Location: Our culture is different and we cannot live together - who said that?

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by pradeepe »

As I have pointed out earlier, both sides are capable of unimaginable brutality. All of oirope has a medeival streak just beneath their renaissance exterior.
Johann
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2075
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Johann »

Pradeep, until the Russian advance in to the area in the 18th century the Caucasus was essentially part of the greater middle east, the battleground between Persia and the Ottoman Empire.

Similarly the entire Balkans, including Greece thanks to the Ottoman Empire, as well as other links had far more in common with the middle east than Europe.

When you mix tribal identities with modern nationalism *without* the restraining effect of liberal values, the effect is usually horrific. Its happened on every continent at some point or another in the last century.
surinder
BRFite
Posts: 1464
Joined: 08 Apr 2005 06:57
Location: Badal Ki Chaaon Mein

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by surinder »

Johann,

You offered to answer Spinster's questions, can I ask some too?



Can you give your view on the origin of the current problem?

Do you think that Russia has called America's bluff? Is that a satisfactory goal of the current campaign?

What is it about Russia's drive into Georgia that attracts more opprobrium than American attacks on Iraq or other places? Is it just US propaganda or there is more to it?
Nayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2552
Joined: 11 Jun 2006 03:48
Location: Vote for Savita Bhabhi as the next BRF admin.

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Nayak »

Ny Times uvacha
Peace Plan Offers Russia a Rationale to Advance

* Sign In to E-Mail or Save This
* Print
* Reprints

Article Tools Sponsored By
By ANDREW E. KRAMER
Published: August 13, 2008

TBILISI, Georgia — It was nearly 2 a.m. on Wednesday when President Nicolas Sarkozy of France announced he had accomplished what seemed virtually impossible: Persuading the leaders of Georgia and Russia to agree to a set of principles that would stop the war.

Handshakes and congratulations were offered all around. But by the time the sun was up, Russian tanks were advancing again, this time taking positions around the strategically important city of Gori, in central Georgia.

It soon became clear that the six-point deal not only failed to slow the Russian advance, but it also allowed Russia to claim that it could push deeper into Georgia as part of so-called additional security measures it was granted in the agreement. Mr. Sarkozy, according to a senior Georgian official who witnessed the negotiations, also failed to persuade the Russians to agree to any time limit on their military action.

By mid-morning, European officials were warning of the risks of appeasing Russian aggression, while Georgian officials lamented the West’s weak leverage.

“I’m talking about the impotence and inability of both Europe and the United States to be unified and to exert leverage, and to comprehend the level of the threat,” said the senior Georgian official, who had sat in on the talks between Mr. Sarkozy and Georgia’s president, Mikheil Saakashvili.

The senior Georgian official later made a copy of the deal available to The New York Times with what he said were notes marking changes the Georgians had asked for but failed to attain.

Of gripping importance to the Georgian government now, Western diplomats and Georgian officials said, is whether the agreement gave the Russians room to interpret the occupation of Gori and a zone around the city as agreed upon in the cease-fire, thus allowing them to control the main east-west road through the country, isolating the capital, Tbilisi, from the Black Sea coast and cutting off important supply routes.

In response, the United States began sending troops to Georgia to oversee aid to the capital on Wednesday.

France brokered the deal as the country holding the rotating presidency of the European Union. Bernard Kouchner, the foreign minister of France, visited Tbilisi and left with a four-point cease-fire plan.

The conditions were: no use of force; cease hostilities; open humanitarian corridors in the conflict areas; and Georgian and Russian troops withdraw to their pre-war positions.

In meetings in Moscow, the Russians insisted on two additional points, the Georgian official said, and Mr. Sarkozy carried these demands to Georgia, landing shortly after 10 p.m. Wednesday and driving straight to the Parliament building to meet Mr. Saakashvili.

Negotiating from a position of strength, the Russians demanded the fifth point, allowing their troops to act in what was termed a peacekeeping role, even outside the boundaries of the separatist enclaves where the war began, with an understanding that later an international agreement might obviate this need.

The vague language of the fifth point allows Russian peacekeepers to “implement additional security measures” while awaiting an international monitoring mechanism.

The Georgians asked that a timeline be included in the language for these loosely defined Russian peacekeeping operations, but the Georgian official said Mr. Sarkozy’s response was that without an agreement, a Russian tank assault on the capital could ensue: “He was saying it’s a difficult situation. He said, ‘Their tanks are 40 kilometers from Tbilisi. This is where we are.’ ”

Mr. Sarkozy then tried to call Dmitri A. Medvedev, the Russian president, to amend the point with a timeline. The adviser, who was present, said the Russians did not take the call for two hours. When the French president got through, the proposal was rejected. :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

In the sixth point, both sides agreed that the status of the contested separatist regions would be pursued the future.

A senior American official familiar with the talks also said that the Russians insisted on the fifth point about the so-called additional security measures. “I think it was presented as, ‘You need to sign on to this,’ ” the official said of Mr. Sarkozy’s appeal to the Georgians. “My guess is it was presented as, ‘This is the best I can get.’ ”

French and Russian officials were unavailable to comment on the Georgian official’s account of how the negotiations unfolded.

Mr. Sarkozy and Mr. Saakashvili announced the agreement around 2 a.m., and Russian tanks and troops moved toward Gori soon afterward. The Russians cited the fifth provision, saying they had identified a threat to the local population that justified their troops assuming a peacekeeping role in the city.

A spokesman for President Medvedev said they took up positions around the town to protect locals from South Ossetians bent on revenge against ethnic Georgians for what Russia says was Georgia’s wholesale destruction of Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia, and its inflicting of civilian casualties. It said it was also there to dispose of weapons left unattended by Georgian troops.

And, in an apparent swipe at the retreat of the Georgian army, which received supplies from the United States, the Russian general commanding the town, Vyachislav N. Borisov, noted in particular the risk if looters seized what he said were thousands of abandoned, American-made assault rifles at a military base. General Borisov spoke at an impromptu news conference on a road congested with Russian military trucks and armored vehicles outside Gori on Wednesday evening.

Russian troops have the right to take any actions necessary to prevent hostilities, said a Kremlin spokesman, Alexei Pavlov, including inside Georgia.

He said the fifth point of the agreement included this right but added that Russia would consider such actions justified “without any agreement at all.”

One senior American official said the fifth point in the cease-fire agreement could lead to further Russian advances, including feints on Tbilisi, to create panic and undermine support for Mr. Saakashvili. This official said international acceptance of Russians as peacekeepers in Georgia “is absurd at this point.”
More Articles in World » A version of this article appeared in print on August 14, 2008, on page
Nayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2552
Joined: 11 Jun 2006 03:48
Location: Vote for Savita Bhabhi as the next BRF admin.

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Nayak »

Wapo article which shows how impotent the bestern countries are when facing resurgent Russia
How to Stop Putin

By Charles Krauthammer
Thursday, August 14, 2008; Page A17

The Russia-Georgia cease-fire brokered by France's president is less than meets the eye. Its terms keep moving as the Russian army keeps moving. Russia has since occupied Gori (appropriately, Stalin's birthplace), effectively cutting Georgia in two. The road to the capital, Tbilisi, is open, but apparently Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has temporarily chosen to seek his objectives through military pressure and Western acquiescence rather than by naked occupation.

His objectives are clear. They go beyond detaching South Ossetia and Abkhazia from Georgia and absorbing them into Russia. They go beyond destroying the Georgian army, leaving the country at Russia's mercy.

The real objective is the Finlandization of Georgia through the removal of President Mikheil Saakashvili and his replacement by a Russian puppet.

Which explains Putin stopping the Russian army (for now) short of Tbilisi. What everyone overlooks in the cease-fire terms is that all future steps -- troop withdrawals, territorial arrangements, peacekeeping forces -- will have to be negotiated between Russia and Georgia. But Russia says it will not talk to Saakashvili. Thus regime change becomes the first requirement for any movement on any front. This will be Putin's refrain in the coming days. He is counting on Europe to pressure Saakashvili to resign and/or flee to "give peace a chance."
ad_icon

The Finlandization of Georgia would give Russia control of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is the only significant westbound route for Caspian Sea oil and gas that does not go through Russia. Pipelines are the economic lifelines of such former Soviet republics as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan that live off energy exports. Moscow would become master of the Caspian basin.

Subduing Georgia has an additional effect. It warns Russia's former Baltic and East European satellites what happens if you get too close to the West. It is the first step to reestablishing Russian hegemony in the region.

What is to be done? Let's be real. There's nothing to be done militarily. What we can do is alter Putin's cost-benefit calculations.

We are not without resources. There are a range of measures to be deployed if Russia does not live up to its cease-fire commitments:

1. Suspend the NATO-Russia Council established in 2002 to help bring Russia closer to the West. Make clear that dissolution will follow suspension. The council gives Russia a seat at the NATO table. Message: Invading neighboring democracies forfeits the seat.

2. Bar Russian entry to the World Trade Organization.

3. Dissolve the G-8. Putin's dictatorship long made Russia's presence in this group of industrial democracies a farce, but no one wanted to upset the bear by expelling it. No need to. The seven democracies simply withdraw. (And if Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, who has been sympathetic to Putin's Georgia adventure, wants to stay, he can have an annual G-2 dinner with Putin.) Then immediately announce the reconstitution of the original G-7.

4. Announce a U.S.-European boycott of the 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi. To do otherwise would be obscene. Sochi is 15 miles from Abkhazia, the other Georgian province just invaded by Russia. The Games will become a riveting contest between the Russian, Belarusan and Jamaican bobsled teams.

All of these steps (except dissolution of the G-8, which should be irreversible) would be subject to reconsideration depending upon Russian action -- most importantly and minimally, its withdrawal of troops from Georgia proper to South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The most crucial and unconditional measure, however, is this: Reaffirm support for the Saakashvili government and declare that its removal by the Russians would lead to recognition of a government-in-exile. This would instantly be understood as providing us the legal basis for supplying and supporting a Georgian resistance to any Russian-installed regime.

President Bush could cash in on his close personal relationship with Putin by sending him a copy of the highly entertaining (and highly fictionalized) film "Charlie Wilson's War" to remind Vlad of our capacity to make Russia bleed. Putin would need no reminders of the Georgians' capacity and long history of doing likewise to invaders.

Bush needs to make up for his mini-Katrina moment when he lingered in Beijing yukking it up with our beach volleyball team while Putin flew to North Ossetia to direct the invasion of a neighboring country. Bush is dispatching Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to France and Georgia. Not a moment too soon. Her task must be to present these sanctions, get European agreement on as many as possible and begin imposing them, calibrated to Russian behavior. And most important of all, to prevent any Euro-wobbliness on the survival of Georgia's democratically elected government.
ad_icon

We have cards. We should play them. Much is at stake.
Russia needs to be brutal and ensure that no more western supported puppet mouthing of democracy or human rights platitudes pops up in its periphery.
Karan Dixit
BRFite
Posts: 1102
Joined: 23 Mar 2007 02:43
Location: Calcutta

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Karan Dixit »

I think Russia will go for entire Georgia. As far as Georgian insurgency is concerned, it will have negligible impact on Russian forces in Georgia. Based on resources Georgia can muster, they will have no more than 500 insurgents after Russia is done dismantling Georgian armed forces.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60273
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by ramana »

By what logic does Georgia become part of Europe? If its part of Europe Turkey should be cake walk!

The map is quite strange. its surrounded by known Asian states.

Map of Georgia
vina
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6046
Joined: 11 May 2005 06:56
Location: Doing Nijikaran, Udharikaran and Baazarikaran to Commies and Assorted Leftists

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by vina »

Now that Russia has achieved it's strategic objectives of effectively splitting Georgia into two by isolating Tbilisi from the Black Sea, and made Saakashvilli's long term position untenable, they should just sit tight and take the case up of putting pressure on Saakashvilli by taking him to the Hague for war crimes trials.

Why indulge in regime change and get the bad "anti democratic" rep. The Georgian people would themselves vote that fool Saakahsvilli out the moment they get the next chance. Normal Georgian politics should be allowed to continue. The Georgians today have no money, no economy worth its name..nothing, except handouts from the west. Keep the pressure on. How long can the US keep propping up it's puppet against popular wishes.

Remove him of the legitimacy that elections confer. Let Saakashivili be defeated in Georgian elections and let him be sent to the Hague for war crimes. That will be fitting end to the crisis. A new leadership is needed to make peace with the Russians and remove the US puppet embrace that makes it tough for relations with Russia.
hnair
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4654
Joined: 03 May 2006 01:31
Location: Trivandrum

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by hnair »

Vick wrote:Care must be taken to make sure the Janjaweed effect doesn't occur else, the Russian high moral ground of stopping the civilian killings would be greatly diminished.
That mistake is made only by idiot abduls in nightgowns. Putin will name these death squads "Blackwaterski", make them wear well-trimmed goatees and order crates of Oakley sunglasses. He is on safe ground as long as the death squad goons dont look third worldly. Joe rednecks in those square red states of Amirkhan can't be easily trained to discern a ruskie from an okie. brain overload etc.

No sir, no one is going to bat an eyelid, whatever Putin-kutty does. Not while Blackwater bankrolls this Prez election and oil prices are high. Everyone in this venture has stuff to hide and everyone is mad at that idiot in Georgia.
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13257
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Lalmohan »

ramana wrote:By what logic does Georgia become part of Europe? If its part of Europe Turkey should be cake walk!

The map is quite strange. its surrounded by known Asian states.

Map of Georgia
Georgia has long seen itself as the last bastion of Christendom in the face of the infidel and savages and saw itself allied to the Christian kingdoms to its west. In this light it took on the Mongol army of Sabutai Khan and was annihilated. Ofcourse, Sabutai's raid was an armed reconnaisance for the main horde, which only came much later to sack Kiev, but thats a different matter!
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

afaik the Turks murdered lakhs of armenian christians in early 20th century,
referred to as the armenian genocide.
did the georgians escape this bloodbath or suffer too?

are they eastern orthodox or catholic ? ukraine is eastern orthodox?

wrt to the mongol hordes were they staffed only with 'core' mongolian tribes
united under a great khan or also consisted of conquered peoples from the
CAR stans who joined the horde either for survival or gain ?

how much bloodline of the northern han is steppe mongol? are the mongols
blood related to manchus?
vina
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6046
Joined: 11 May 2005 06:56
Location: Doing Nijikaran, Udharikaran and Baazarikaran to Commies and Assorted Leftists

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by vina »

Georgians are orthodox. The west (catholic & protestant) vs east (orthodox) split in Christianity runs up the line along italy/austria/czech/poland . Poland though slavic is catholic and th underlying identity is "religious" ie. catholic rather than "ethnic /racial" (Slavic) and Poland always considered itself as the bastion of catholicism against the eastern "backward" /"barbarians"/whatever. Ukraine is split. Eastern and souther parts are Orthodox ,while the western parts are catholic. Ukraine is really split between "ethnic /racial" identity vs "religious" identity.

It is funny, after all those years of 100 year /1000 year wars and Westphalia treaty and all that, Oierope still has these primal /identity questions. And no , it is not confined to "backward" places like Caucasus or Balkans or Adriatic. Why just look at a country called Belgium. Again a classic cleft state like Samuel Huntington would state (well for him , conveniently west is homogeneous with catholic vs protestant stuff non event..just ask northern ireland ha ha.). Belguim is split on ethnic lines , but united on religous lines !. The entire rationale of belgium was catholicsm, with Dutch /Flemish catholics being together with Walloons (french catholics). Now with religion ceasing to be a force in western europe, you could see how the "ethnic" pull is breaking up belgium , with the Felmings feeling closer to their ethnic cousins up north and the Walloons with the Frenchies down south.

The northern hans have little or no mongol blood. The Manchus were always considered as "barbarian" outsiders who sinicised themselves though (correct me if I am wrong).
Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

but didnt chengis's grandson kublai khan sit in the peking throne. I was under
impression the real northerners had been driven down south and some of their
captured women intermixed with the mongol settlers to produce the modern Han.
mongols did pillage peking atleast once iirc.
women could in time breed warriors are were looked upon as a strategic resource
in that era just like camels, oxen or horses. without addl women a nation could
not hope to replenish the ranks of those fallen. thats why they were seldom
massacred (except the old ones) but always "carried off"
Igorr
BRFite
Posts: 697
Joined: 01 Feb 2005 18:13
Contact:

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Igorr »

A lot of pictures from S.Ossetia:
http://www.navoine.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?p=551#551
Johann
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2075
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Johann »

surinder wrote:Johann,

You offered to answer Spinster's questions, can I ask some too?



Can you give your view on the origin of the current problem?

Do you think that Russia has called America's bluff? Is that a satisfactory goal of the current campaign?

What is it about Russia's drive into Georgia that attracts more opprobrium than American attacks on Iraq or other places? Is it just US propaganda or there is more to it?
I think Spinster likes a good joke, and so do I.

+ As far as the origins of the situation, it boils down to this - the Caucasus is mile for mile the most ethnically complex place in the world. However warrior machismo and blood feuds are one thing they all have in common.

The Georgians like the Armenians have had a strong national identity as opposed to a purely tribal identity for over a millenia, but they've generally been surrounded by larger empires that occasionally ran over them - Pre-Islamic Persians, Islamic Arabs, Turks, Persians again, and finally the Russians, and then the Soviets. Like the Russians under the Mongols, the Serbs and Croats under the Turks in the Balkans or the Maronites in Lebanon they've survived as a goup in part by being a little crazy, but there's a point at which that becomes a liability.

The Armenians locked in their battles with the Turks until 1919, and more recently with Azerbaijan have always need Russian help to manage. The Georgians based on historical experience of their own kingdoms were confidant they could handle their neighbours in the Caucasus so long as they were left alone. That made Georgian nationalism a threat even in Soviet times. The Soviet response was to heavily favour autonomy within minority areas of the Georgian SSR, such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russian policy continued under Yeltsin, and of course Putin.

+ The Georgian offensive in to South Ossetia caught the Americans almost entirely unprepared.

If there is an American bluff that's been called, it is that Georgia is mature and stable enough to join NATO.

What the Americans were prepared for is a cold war type confrontation of the type seen over divided Germany. Often tense with mini-crises over feints and parries, but predictable.

Serious instability in the Caucasus is in no one's interest - there have been major Western investments in the billions in pipelines and now other areas of business in Georgia. The Russians are similarly not keen to repeat their Chechen experience at a time when the the North Caucasus is still simmering. They too have hopes for their own energy corridors.

+ There was no shortage of absolute hatred in the Muslim world over the US invasion of Iraq. There was no shortage of disgust in the EU and elsewhere.

In much of Europe the fear was that US unilateralism was going to unleash wider instability in the global system, plus of course that Europe would be much more directly affected by instability in the Middle East.

However, for all of the anxiety and anger in Europe, the US and European states remained in an alliance structure. The *principal* value of that alliance structure to Europe is to prevent the emergence of any single *national* hegemon within Europe and its periphery. The choice presented is to either integrate with the EU, or be deterred by NATO.

Russia since Peter the Great has always been a potential hegemon in Europe, and been treated as such, just like Napoleonic France and post-Bismarck Germany. Russia's sheer size in terms of geography and population, and to a lesser extent its mix of Orthodox and Mongol influences have made it difficult to fully integrate. Russia itself fluctuates between periods of intense desire for integration, and haughty dismissal of the goal of integration.

Currently the EU's biggest anxiety is their energy dependence on Russia. India has had a hard time in the last few years with Russia in defence deals. *All* of Russia's energy clients, including allies like Belarus have had an even harder time dealing with them on the even more vital question of energy supplies.

The other major EU issue is the nature of the Russian political system. Spain, Greece and Portugal were all excluded as long as they were dictatorships. Turkey has had to systematically reduce the role of the army to move towards acceptance. In general the EU expects the worst from Russia as long as the Kremlin holds such uncontestable power within Russia - the EU although friendlier towards Yeltsin still had serious differences with him.

p.s. Sinha, yes the Mongols did use defeated Central Asian tribes like the Black Sheep and White Sheep Turks when they moved south and west to conquer settled societies.
Last edited by Johann on 14 Aug 2008 17:49, edited 1 time in total.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

The Russians are allowing the Georgian police to take control of Gori. Looks like they've had enough of the looters.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Bush needs to make up for his mini-Katrina moment when he lingered in Beijing yukking it up with our beach volleyball team while Putin flew to North Ossetia to direct the invasion of a neighboring country.
Image
George Bush with Misty May-Treanor and Kerri Walsh
Image
Misty May-Treanor asked George Bush to spank her on the bottom the president decided to get playful.
ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 60273
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by ramana »

Shades of Nero? and new Rome?
svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14222
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by svinayak »

ramana wrote:By what logic does Georgia become part of Europe? If its part of Europe Turkey should be cake walk!

The map is quite strange. its surrounded by known Asian states.

Map of Georgia
The NATO and EU is moving east ward. Historically this area
was supposed to be backward. Instability at the govt and social level is more in these regions and western NATO is not prepared for this kind of unpredictability. But they are still expanding. Why is that.

They have seen Russia becoming more powerful with its energy geo-politics which has scared the sh!t out of major powers. This is more powerful than during the Soviet cold war. It may put the certain regions of europe and developed area under strain and more backward than the asian countries. We could see the Asian economy and std of living rise more than certain regions of europe with the next 15-20 years.
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Russians begin Georgia handover
General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of staff of Russia's armed forces, told a news conference that Russian forces in the region were not ready to withdraw yet.

He said they were protecting abandoned weapons and ammunition, preventing looting and clearing mines left by Georgian forces. They were also liaising with local Georgian authorities and would ensure the security of humanitarian operations, he said.

Elsewhere, eyewitnesses in the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti said that Russian troops had entered the town in armoured vehicles. Moscow has denied the reports.
Rahul M
Forum Moderator
Posts: 17167
Joined: 17 Aug 2005 21:09
Location: Skies over BRFATA
Contact:

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Rahul M »

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66589
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

Russia: 'Forget' Georgian territorial integrity

By CHRISTOPHER TORCHIA, Associated Press Writer 14 minutes ago

GORI, Georgia - Russia's foreign minister declared that the world "can forget about" Georgia's territorial integrity on Thursday and Georgian and Russian troops faced off at a checkpoint outside the key city of Gori, calling an already shaky cease-fire into question.

In Washington, an American official said Russia appears to be sabotaging airfields and other military infrastructure as its forces pull back. The U.S. official described eyewitnesses accounts for The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The official said the Russian strategy seems like a deliberate attempt to cripple the already battered Georgian military.

The United States poured aid into the Georgian capital of Tbilisi on Thursday and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice launched emergency talks in France aimed at heading off a wider conflict.

The comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov appeared to come as a challenge to the United States, where President Bush has called for Russia to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia."

There were at least five explosions near Gori. It could not immediately be determined if the blasts were a renewal of fighting between Georgian and Russian forces, but they sounded similar to mortar shells and occurred after a tense confrontation between Russian and Georgian troops on the edge of the city.

The strategically located city is 15 miles south of South Ossetia, the Russian-backed separatist region where Russian and Georgian forces fought a five-day battle. Russian troops entered Gori on Wednesday, after the two sides signed the cease-fire that called for their forces to pull back to the positions they held before the fighting.

Georgia early Thursday said the Russians were leaving the city, but later alleged they were bringing in additional troops. In Washington, a Pentagon official said U.S. intelligence had assessed that the number of Russians in Gori was small — about 100 to 200 troops.

But the Russian presence in Gori, only 60 miles west of Tbilisi, was viewed as a demonstration of the vulnerability of the capital.

Russian deputy chief of General Staff Col.-Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn blamed the Georgians for Russia's decision to stay.

"The position of the Russia side is not proceed beyond the peacekeeping zone. But we have to respond to provocations," he said.

Georgian government officials who went into the city for the possible handover left unexpectedly around midday, followed by a checkpoint confrontation outside Gori which ended when Russian tanks sped toward the area and Georgian police quickly retreated.


A Russian general in Gori had said Wednesday it would take at least two days to leave the city. Lavrov said troops were evacuating Georgian weapons and ammunition from a military base there.

Some Georgian police said irregular fighters from South Ossetia had refused to leave Gori, where a BBC reporter saw them looting and burning Wednesday night.

Two planned U.S. aid flights arrived in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi late Wednesday and Thursday, carrying cots, blankets and medicine for refugees displaced by the fighting. The shipment arrived on a C-17 military plane, an illustration of the close U.S.-Georgia military cooperation that has angered Russia.

Besides the hundreds killed since hostilities broke out, the United Nations estimates 100,000 Georgians have been uprooted; Russia says some 30,000 residents of South Ossetia fled into the neighboring Russian province of North Ossetia.

Russian troops also appeared to be settling in elsewhere in Georgia outside the breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"One can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity because, I believe, it is impossible to persuade South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree with the logic that they can be forced back into the Georgian state," Lavrov told reporters.

The Georgian Foreign Ministry said Russian troops remained in Poti, a Black Sea port city with an oil terminal that is key to Georgia's fragile economic health.

An APTN crew in Poti saw one destroyed Georgian military boat, about 60 feet long, two Russian armored vehicles and two Russian transport trucks inside the port. They were blocked from moving closer by soldiers who identified themselves as Russian peacekeepers.

Earlier Thursday, on Poti's outskirts, the APTN crew followed a different convoy of Russian troops as they searched a forest for Georgian military equipment.

Another APTN camera crew saw Russian soldiers and military vehicles parked Thursday inside the Georgian government's elegant, heavily-gated residence in the western town of Zugdidi. Some of the soldiers wore blue peacekeeping helmets, others wore green camouflage helmets, all were heavily armed. The scene underlined how closely the soldiers Russia calls peacekeepers are allied with its military.

"The Russian troops are here. They are occupying," Ygor Gegenava, an elderly Zugdidi resident told the APTN crew. "We don't want them here. What we need is friendship and good relations with the Russian people."

Georgia, bordering the Black Sea between Turkey and Russia, was ruled by Moscow for most of the two centuries preceding the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.

A steady, dejected trickle of Georgian refugees fled the front line in overloaded cars, trucks and tractor-pulled wagons, heading to Tbilisi on the road from Gori. One Soviet-era car carried eight people, including a mother and a baby in the front seat. The open back door of a small blue van revealed at least a dozen people crowded inside.

The Russian General Prosecutor's office on Thursday said it has formally opened a genocide probe into Georgian treatment of South Ossetians. For its part, Georgia this week filed a suit against Russia in the International Court of Justice, alleging murder, rape and mass expulsions in both provinces.

More homes in deserted ethnic Georgian villages were apparently set ablaze Wednesday, sending clouds of smoke over the foothills north of Tskhinvali, capital of breakaway South Ossetia.

One Russian colonel, who refused to give his name, blamed the fires on looters.

Those with ethnic Georgian backgrounds who have stayed behind — like 70-year-old retired teacher Vinera Chebataryeva — seem increasingly unwelcome in South Ossetia.

As she stood sobbing in her wrecked apartment near the center of Tskhinvali, Chebataryeva said a skirmish between Ossetian soldiers and a Georgian tank had gouged the two gaping shell holes in her wall, bashing in her piano and destroying her furniture.

Janna Kuzayeva, an ethnic Ossetian neighbor, claimed the Georgian tank fired the shell at Chebataryeva's apartment.

"We know for sure her brother spied for Georgians," said Kuzayeva. "We let her stay here, and now she's blaming everything on us."

North of Tskhinvali, a number of former Georgian communities have been abandoned in the last few days. "There isn't a single Georgian left in those villages," said Robert Kochi, a 45-year-old South Ossetian.

But he had little sympathy for his former Georgian neighbors. "They wanted to physically uproot us all," he said. "What other definition is there for genocid
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Surya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5030
Joined: 05 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Surya »

Warning: Graphic content

http://www.navoine.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?t=112


war is brutal
Lalmohan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13257
Joined: 30 Dec 2005 18:28

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Lalmohan »

from the pictures...

1. the regular russian troops are looking leaner and meaner than they used to, i guess the transformation is progressing well
2. a number of ERA equipped T90's appeared to have brewed up, we need to understand how
3. the irregulars look scary, russia needs to control these goons quickly before their atrocities overtake the georgian ones
4. in most cases, the georgians appear to be outgunned and had their musharraffs kicked big time
surinder
BRFite
Posts: 1464
Joined: 08 Apr 2005 06:57
Location: Badal Ki Chaaon Mein

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by surinder »

Johann,

Thanks for explaining the situation.

You wrote: "Like the Russians under the Mongols, the Serbs and Croats under the Turks in the Balkans or the Maronites in Lebanon they've survived as a goup in part by being a little crazy, but there's a point at which that becomes a liability."

Can you explain what exactly you menat by the bolded part? How have they been a little crazy?

Thanks.
Surya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5030
Joined: 05 Mar 2001 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Surya »

One thing for sure the Russians have the most expensive trucks for sure - BMPs!!!!!

I hope our troops never ride inside them -
Gerard
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8012
Joined: 15 Nov 1999 12:31

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Rejuvenated Georgian President Cites U.S. Ties as ‘Turning Point’ in Conflict
Moments after President Bush appeared at the Rose Garden to say that the Pentagon would begin a humanitarian aid mission to support Georgia, Mr. Saakashvili was on the phone with a Western reporter, talking fast. “This is a turning point,” he said. Soon he appeared on national television, his tousled hair combed back flat and wearing a freshly pressed suit, assuring his country that the worst had passed.
He added, “We will fight to the end, until the last Russian soldier leaves Georgian soil and this country is not going to be brought to the knees anymore. We are not surrendering, no matter what.”
“We already saw U.S. Air Force landing in Georgia despite Russians controlling the airspace,” he said, after a C-17 had touched down. “And we will see U.S. military ships entering Georgian ports despite Russians blocking it. That we will see.” He added, “These will be serious military ships.”
surinder
BRFite
Posts: 1464
Joined: 08 Apr 2005 06:57
Location: Badal Ki Chaaon Mein

Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by surinder »

The US "humanitarian" aid to Georgia is a good masterstroke. I am sure Putin wasn't expecting it. He had called America's bluff, now America has called his. Let us see who will blink? I think the Russi's will.
Locked