Caucasus Crisis

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svinayak
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by svinayak »

Lalmohan wrote:from the pictures...

1. the regular russian troops are looking leaner and meaner than they used to, i guess the transformation is progressing well
2. a number of ERA equipped T90's appeared to have brewed up, we need to understand how
3. the irregulars look scary, russia needs to control these goons quickly before their atrocities overtake the georgian ones
4. in most cases, the georgians appear to be outgunned and had their musharraffs kicked big time
Russian army in a news report said this is the first voluntary army unit for combat.
They are moving from conscripts to voluntary army

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... dersen.jpg
Russia shows who's the boss

Lynn Berry on why Moscow has sent its troops into Georgia

Russia has made clear it calls the shots in this part of the world, a message other former Soviet Bloc countries cannot ignore. Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili has been a loyal US ally and has portrayed his nation as a beacon of democracy. But when he tried to stand up to his country's former masters in Moscow, he faced the full wrath of the Russian Army.

Washington could do little but spout angry words as Russian tanks rolled across Georgia's borders last week and its aircraft began dropping bombs on villages and towns. Russia was punishing Georgia for moving into the separatist region of South Ossetia to claim back territory that has been effectively under Russian control since 1992 - but also for turning its back on Moscow and throwing in with the West, seeking to join NATO and cozying up to Washington.

Russian leaders had seethed as Georgia brought in Americans to arm and train its troops. One of the first spots hit by Russian aircraft was a military base outside the capital where more than 1,000 US Marines and soldiers led exercises last month. In ordering a halt to military action on Tuesday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Georgia had been punished enough. "The aggressor has been punished and suffered very significant losses. Its military has been disorganised," Mr Medvedev said.

The overwhelming use of force caused alarm in other eastern European countries that aspire to NATO membership, like Ukraine, or have recently joined the alliance. Russia has threatened to target ballistic missiles at them if they allow the US to base a missile defence system on their territory. After the attack on Georgia, the threat is likely to be taken more seriously.

The leaders of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia rushed to Mr Saakashvili's defence on Tuesday, travelling to Georgia and appearing together at a mass pep rally in the center of Tbilisi, the capital. "We came to fight since our old neighbour (Russia) thinks that it can fight us," Polish President Lech Kaczynski said. "This country thinks that old times will come back, but that time is over. Everyone knows that the next one could be Ukraine, then Poland."

But Georgia's experience shows the US can do little in Russia's neighbourhood when Russia feels its interests are threatened. A US State Department envoy who was in Tbilisi, has all but acknowledged as much.
Two ancient Georgian states were the Kingdoms of Colchis and Iberia. The latter, one of the first countries in the world to adopt Christianity as an official religion early in the 4th century, subsequently provided a nucleus around which the unified Kingdom of Georgia was formed early in the 11th century. After a period of political, economic and cultural flourishing, this kingdom went into decline in the 13th century and eventually fragmented into several kingdoms and principalities in the 16th century. The three subsequent centuries of Ottoman and Persian hegemony were followed by a piecemeal absorption into the Russian Empire in the 19th century. After the Russian Revolution of 1917, Georgia had a brief period of independence as a Democratic Republic (1918-1921), which was terminated by the Red Army invasion of Georgia. Georgia became part of the Soviet Union in 1922 and regained its independence in 1991. Early post-Soviet years were marked by a civil unrest and economic crisis. Georgia began to gradually stabilize in 1995, and achieved more effective functioning of state institutions following a bloodless change of power in the so-called Rose Revolution of 2003.[4] However, Georgia continues to suffer from the unresolved secessionist conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Relations with Russia remain tense over these issues as well as Georgia’s aspiration of NATO membership.[5] In early August 2008, Georgia was engaged in armed conflict with separatists and the state of Russia.
svinayak
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by svinayak »

surinder wrote:The US "humanitarian" aid to Georgia is a good masterstroke. I am sure Putin wasn't expecting it. He had called America's bluff, now America has called his. Let us see who will blink? I think the Russi's will.
Russia has announced $400m is aid.
There will be some mediation and country will be under some peace keeping with Russia holding south ossetia.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by John Snow »

The Russian army is still very indisciplined. They are still in the mindset of WWII peasant wars.

If they had any strategic planning they would have held all major airports where a C5A galaxy kind (big planes)transport could land , examine the cargo and then let them in to show they are not vindictive but came in with a geniuine purpose.

Alternatively they could have bombed the airports to unservicable condition so that the blocakade is complete in all aspects.

They did not even use graphite wire to disable the electric cable.....

Long ways to go Ivans.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

I think they kept tbilsi airport off the target list to allow
foreign diplomats and negotiators access.

the US could anyway ship materials via the turkish border
if need be.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by NRao »

I think the Russians do not need to use any high tech stuff. What purpose does it serve?

As some articles have stated, Russia can do as they please in Georgia - on their timeline. Agree to a peace treaty and break it too.

I just do not see Europe having any stomach to do anything. I can have a bet that they will encourage all of those bordering countries to pipe down. The West is strong, but in no shape to broaden this conflict. On the flip side RU is ready and prepared to bleed a wee bit.

Given one report that Putin was livid in Beijing, anyone in the West should have known better than their current talk.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Singha »

noticed many troops had new sports sneakers. must have looted a large godown or shop
somewhere.

EU for all its hu-ha can barely deploy a divisions worth given some warning, by ship.
their strategic airlift is minuscule compared to Unkil. their tanker situation is even worse.
they have little ability to fight their way in anywhere from the sea or air.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Roop »

Vladimir Putin's mastery checkmates the West
The cartoon images have shown Russia as an angry bear, stretching out a claw to maul Georgia. Russia is certainly angry, and, like a beast provoked, has bared its teeth. But it is the wrong stereotype. What the world has seen last week is a brilliant and brutal display of Russia's national game, chess. And Moscow has just declared checkmate.
Gerard
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

For Georgian president:

I could not work,
I dared not rob.
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
Tell me; what lies shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?

Rudyard Kipling "Epitaph for A Dead Politician"

Alexey Vasilyev, St. Petersburg, Russia
enqyoob
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by enqyoob »

The US "humanitarian" aid to Georgia is a good masterstroke. I am sure Putin wasn't expecting it. He had called America's bluff, now America has called his. Let us see who will blink? I think the Russi's will.


If you control the country, and its foreign-trained goon gang has just handed over their tanks, military bases, rifles, uniforms and underwear and run away in burkhas, why should you object to their sugar-daddy dumping another few loads of nice jeeps, HumVees, pressed suits and new underwear? They'll hand it over to you anyway.....

Are the Russian soldiers also wearing new watches and Garmin GPS PDAs to match their Nike sneakers?
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by enqyoob »

Russian soldiers sport new cameras and cars too 8)
When Ward asked one of the Russians soldiers at a checkpoint how long they were going to stay there, one answered sarcastically, "A year." "Why are you filming us?" said another. "There's nothing to see."

Other TV footage shot today outside Gori shows what appears to be Russian and Ossetian soldiers chasing reporters away at gunpoint. Some of the reporters' cars and cameras were confiscated. One soldier can be heard yelling in Russian, "Give me your camera you jerk, I'll kill you."
These guys are just like Americans!
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by rsingh »

US and Poland sign Missile defence bla bla.........so quickly?
Does this mean
- That Geogian misadventure was NOT sole decision of Georgian Musharraf but it was well planned trick to provoke Russia to invade Georgia. Bush playing beachball, Condi giving Piano lesson when Russians were advancing in Georgia.......they wanted Russia to be well dug-in in Georgian territory.
-Even Ukrainian are talking nonsense.............when they know that winter is not very far and they have to stay warm
-Iranians President in Turkey...........US attempt to take IRAN INTO FOLD...........IN CASE OF HOSTILITIES WITH RUSSIA?

I conclude that something has been planned for Russia. Picture will be clear when other central Asian countries show the cards. Russia is lucky to have sharp minds as heads of state. This is start of End of NATO or Russia and the way things are going Nukes might be used. Bear will never go down without fight and if Russia has survive as a superpower then it has to check NATO.

Next step
Russia courting Azerbaijan and Armenia for defense pact to get hold on Oil pipline.
EU starting fast-lane membership process (read buy-out) of Armenia......not surer about Armenia.
Chechens and Degistani separtist will find sympathy and funding in west
Russia talks to Cuba about missile base
Pakistan Sans Gola and overtaken by Talibunnies have even more IT expert but west is busy somewhere else and India has to face.
Afganistan lost to Talibunnies Americans go home.
IMO

And yes Quote of the year
"Georgian Territorial Integrity is irrelevant" Lavrov The Russian :mrgreen:
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Kati
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Kati »

The biggest beneficiary of the caucasus turmoil is Iran.
It has gotten another six months or so quiet time to make
progress on its paramanoo vigyan.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Yuschenko Cancels Agreement Of Cooperation In Use Of Radar Systems

Looks like Ukraine is turning off the missile warning radars on its territory
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Gerard
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

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Re: Caucasus Crisis

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niran
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by niran »

A bit off topic
Does any one have links to pictures displaying Merkava destroyed.
will be a good comparison with T series protection.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Rahul Shukla »

I am a bit too late in joining this party, been insanely busy and all... so I would keep it short and just say that it seems like the Ruskis have woken up, and it's about d@mn time they did.

Hail Putin!
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Kati »

RU is doing quite a good CNN work in its home turf:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 535173.ece
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by enqyoob »

Useless to talk about this on today's BRF, but what would be great is an article systematically documenting the media antics of both sides in this conflict, because most of us here have no emotional involvement in it one way or another. Both sides are anti-communist (hey, Russia is a great capitalist revisionist bunch now, aren't they?), both are same race, same religion, and neither is an enemy of India (the Georgian goon gang are like Pakis, and may have become real pains. But so far they were just interested in making deals and ripping off people, in international relations, and would do whatever Massa told them.

Now let's see the crux of it:
The old thinking finds more fertile ground now because, in the view of disillusioned Russians, President Bush relaunched the ideological war through a compliant American media, especially at the time of the invasion of Iraq.

“In the old days under Soviet rule we didn't believe a word of our own propaganda but we thought that information was free in the West and we longed for it,” said Katya, a middle-aged Muscovite. “But we have learnt since that the West has its own propaganda and in some ways it is more powerful because people believe it.”


So he has sense enough to understand why Russians find the western media dishonest.

Now let's see the utter Paki-like inability of western (read British and American) to see how ludicrous their own dishonesty looks:
The smiles and studio banter could come from BBC World or CNN but the story is unrelentingly the Kremlin version. Banners flash along at the bottom of the screen saying such things as “genocide” and “aggression” or “city turns into human hell, many people still trapped under rubble”. Recapping the conflict yesterday RT's presenter said that Georgia's “brutal assault” had killed 1,600 civilians in its breakaway province in a campaign that destroyed 70 per cent of the buildings in Tskhinvali, its capital. Russian forces had moved in only to bring peace as Georgian forces killed women and children who were trying to flee, it said. Throughout its rolling cover of alleged Georgian atrocities, there was no mention of the heavy Russian military offensive.
So you see that the western papparazzo is not DENYING that 1600 civilians were killed by the Georgians, triggering Russian intervention. He doesn't DENY that the Georgian goons killed women and children who were trying to flee.. but his readers, he is sure, care nothing about the murder of Russian or Ossetian civilians, as long as their murderers are American-backed, American-trained, American-funded, American-advised murderers.

The only outrage that comes within their narrow mental vision is that RUSSIA HIT BACK.

What would they have had Russia do instead? Wring their hands at the UN while 30,000 civilians were being butchered?

Excuse the bad language, but I DO have to call these western reporters and their sh1t-swallowing readers what they are: utter OISEAULES.

This is exactly what we saw in 1970-71. The oiseaules could see very clearly that hundreds of thousands of innocents were being murdered by the Pakistan Army, yet all they could do was attack India for finally going to their help and whipping the Pakis' musharrafs. Don't you remember all the demands that India should IMMEDIATELY ceasefire, withdraw from East Pak, etc. etc? Never in there did the oiseaules ever admit that what India was doing, needed doing.

Same when the Kargil war broke out and Indian soldiers were dying and the Pakis were entrenched in the high peaks. The glee was palpable, until it became obvious that the Pakis were getting pulverized.

I pray that "Great Britain" get what it deserves, in one way or another, for several centuries now of crimes against humanity.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Deans »

Some extracts from the Russian press and blogs on the Military operations:

Russian casualties (official) are 74 KIA, 19 MIA & 174 WIA.

The Operation was planned in the midst of a reshuffle of the Russian top brass and the holiday season. When the Georgians attacked, President Medvedeev was on holiday &
Putin in Beijing. The C-in-C of the Army was new, his Chief of Staff had earlier been fired
with no replacment in place. Finally, the Head of Russian ground forces had only taken over on 05th Aug! For a very centralised command structure, the speed of decision making was z
surprisingly fast.

Operation considered a success. What went right was:

1. Speed of deployment - which surprised the Georgians and presumably the US.
(very fast - even assuming some units were in their jumping off positions).
2. Russian Navy got into the act fast as well.
3. Good performance at a tactical level, by a largely conscript force (only the Chechen
unit and some Sp forces were volunteers).

Some surprises and areas for improvment:

1. Communications & EW were a weakness. One SU-25 was shot down by friendly fire.
2. Israeli upgraded T-72's of Georgia performed better than the Russian T-72's, particularly
in night fighting.
3. S-200 SAM's `lent' by Ukraine were apparently a surprise. Apart from the loss of a TU-22
2 more were damaged. Russian SEAD activity considered inadequate.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by pradeepe »

narayanan wrote: I pray that "Great Britain" get what it deserves, in one way or another, for several centuries now of crimes against humanity.
Amen to that N^3 ji. These gents have pillaged and plundered with a tight arse and straight face while all along tut-tutting the rest of the world.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by svinayak »

narayanan wrote:U

This is exactly what we saw in 1970-71. The oiseaules could see very clearly that hundreds of thousands of innocents were being murdered by the Pakistan Army, yet all they could do was attack India for finally going to their help and whipping the Pakis' musharrafs. Don't you remember all the demands that India should IMMEDIATELY ceasefire, withdraw from East Pak, etc. etc? Never in there did the oiseaules ever admit that what India was doing, needed doing.

Same when the Kargil war broke out and Indian soldiers were dying and the Pakis were entrenched in the high peaks. The glee was palpable, until it became obvious that the Pakis were getting pulverized.

I pray that "Great Britain" get what it deserves, in one way or another, for several centuries now of crimes against humanity.
This is known as the right history in both the Christian and Islamic world view. That means what ever the ruling govt does and says about any event in its rule then that is the truth. The dissident voice is not given any space in the official history.
There is no concept of human rights.

A selective use of the human rights judgment is part of this world view.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Deans »

Aircraft used by the Russians.
4th Air Army & PVO (Strategic bomer force) comprising approx:

60 SU-24, 30 SU-24MP (EW aircraft), 100 Mig-29, 100 SU-25, 60 SU-27 & 40 L-39 (light attack). Also used in the attack role: 75 MI-24 & the TU-22MP.

Lost: 1 TU-22 & 4 SU-25.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Igorr »

The 'freedom of speach' on FoxNews. The Ossetian refugee interview:
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Lalmohan »

Singha wrote:wrt to the mongol hordes were they staffed only with 'core' mongolian tribes
united under a great khan or also consisted of conquered peoples from the
CAR stans who joined the horde either for survival or gain ?

how much bloodline of the northern han is steppe mongol? are the mongols
blood related to manchus?
this is an aside...

Sabutai's raid of 12 tumans (12,000 men) would have been mostly mongols - this was still in the time of Genghiz. He was sent on an armed exploration of the west because the mongols had no idea what was beyond the kazakh steppe. Sabutai undertook a sweep through the caucasus. Its possible that he 'recruited' some of the turkic tribesmen as guides, but the core force is likely to have been mongols. Either way, he returned to the Altai and Khingan ranges (the homeland) with the surrender of a number of tribes and kingdoms in the lands he had explored and the decimation of the georgian host.

the later attack of Russia and the Ukraine, which eventually thunders on to Hungary and the eventual Christian disaster on the field of Mohe would most likely have seen the Mongol core army augmented with Chinese engineers and sappers as well as several Turkic tribes to bulk up the army. There is talk of deploying 'chemical weapons' against the europeans - likely to be Chinese brains. Over time, these turkic peoples become intertwined with the mongols particularly in central asia (once the heirs of Genghiz split up the world) and from them come the Mughals amongst others - much more central asian than north asian.

In northern china, despite the large scale slaughter, rape and pillage by the mongols, the Han continued to dominate the population and the mongols forever remained as foreigners (Kubilai Khan founds the Yuen dynasty - but remains a foreigner). This same population dynamic is seen in India, where invaders are absorbed by a more populous and culturally 'superior' host.

Amongst the minorities left over in the Caucasus are the tartars - mongol people who migrated during these times
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Lalmohan »

I am suddenly reminded of the 10 sec shot during the olympic ceremony of Putin walking across to Dubya for a chat and the two of them nodding their heads as if agreeing to something. Dubya must have known that the russkies were steaming into georgia, putin must have told him - "arre yaar, apun ka ilaka hai, vaart lagena ka hai" and dubya musta said "chal thik hai, kar le, phir upar se mujhe gussa dikhana hai"

right now unkil is showing upar walla gussa
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

Kati
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Kati »

Candid admission by Stratfor on NPR

http://www.npr.org/templates/player/med ... m=93619367
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by SwamyG »

The old thinking finds more fertile ground now because, in the view of disillusioned Russians, President Bush relaunched the ideological war through a compliant American media, especially at the time of the invasion of Iraq.

“In the old days under Soviet rule we didn't believe a word of our own propaganda but we thought that information was free in the West and we longed for it,” said Katya, a middle-aged Muscovite. “But we have learnt since that the West has its own propaganda and in some ways it is more powerful because people believe it.”
I so want to print, frame and display that.

For all its accusations of being a liberal media, the USA media has been used by GoU to achieve its agenda.

It is so amazing to see the citizens lamenting that USA gets blamed for everything and anything. They look at the Constitution fathers (and framers), look at the Federalist Papers and talk about the separation of Church and State, State vs Federal, Freedom, Liberty, Rights (yeah no duties though).... They are not made aware what their Government has to do to provide these things to their citizens.

The Media (including the Hollywood) has been very effective in creating a holier than thou attitude in the citizenry. But the Republicans and Libertarians talk about how the role of government needs to be reduced.

It is like watching the movie "The Truman Show".
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by ramana »

SawmyG, Its called the Fourth Estate. The first three are - Elected Representatives, Executive, and Judiciary.

In the West the press is part of the governing elite. In India the press is antagonisitic to the government as it feels it can sit in the tent and criticise it. This came about as business men owned the press(*) and when the govt pursued anti-business policies the press took up anti-govt stance. Now with foreign ownership the situation is even worse for a traditional arm of governance is institutionalized to be anatagonistic to the government.

There is a fifth column that is foreign spies or agents who influnec and subvert the government. The press in the third world is moving down a notch and mission from Fourth estate to Fifth column.


(*)
- Hindustan Times was/is a Birla owned paper
- Indian Express was/is/ Goenka paper
- TOI is a Jain paper. Not religion but owner's name.

And so on.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by SwamyG »

I know a bunch of co-workers who lean towards the Conservative or Libertarian sides. They are so incensed at what Russia is doing to Georgia. Some of the knowledgeable even talk about Russia wanting to control the oil pipeline. The Conservatives thought the preemptive strike of Iraq was right, the Libertarians, that I know, are not supportive of the war.

The folks failed to recognize the similarities and dissimilarities between the two.

Both USA and Russia were aggressive towards a far smaller country. Both the big powers cited reasons for the aggression. Both the smaller countries' records were not that great when it came to handling dissent among its autonomous/ethnic citizens. Both the smaller countries were strategically placed. While Russia could claim Georgia was in its backyard, USA could not claim the same for Iraq; but when it comes to security backyard or front yard or street does not really matter. A country is bound to consider its national interests.

Right or wrong, the big powers are looking for their own interests. Except in the Georgia-Russia case, USA is making noises in such a manner that even comedians like Jon Stewart are noticing how hypocritical some of the rhetoric are.

The West is so effective in making noises; but Russia and China have realized that they must go about their own business without heeding to these noises.

Neither the West nor the Reds are right or wrong; I am not sure in the matters of national interest certain things take the back seat.

It is just that when the Elephants grapple, the grass gets trampled. It is funny when one elephant points out to the spectators that the other elephant is hurting the grass.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by svinayak »

NRao
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by NRao »

SwamyG,

The problem is rules. The US (all perhaps) has one for itself and another for the rest of the countries.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Gerard »

BBC just ran a short clip of Saakashvili behind his desk with his tie in his mouth, busy chewing away. :eek:
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by ramana »

Naraynan, its still not late to document the media analysis. We need volunteers to fill in the outline you have posted.

acharya, Even the Commies have the same view about their leadership version of the story.
This is known as the right history in both the Christian and Islamic world view. That means what ever the ruling govt does and says about any event in its rule then that is the truth. The dissident voice is not given any space in the official history.
There is no concept of human rights.

A selective use of the human rights judgment is part of this world view.

The extreme right wingers say" My country right or wrong". No dharma.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

Post by Roop »

Who got Georgia into this?

(emphasis mine)
So where did the Georgians get the silly idea that the U.S. would bail them out?

Maybe from John McCain, Republican heir apparent, whose top foreign policy advisor, Randy Scheunemann, also just happens to be a highly paid lobbyist for the Georgian government. Whoops -- correction! Scheunemann usedto be a highly paid lobbyist for Georgia. The McCain campaign says Scheunemann hasn't taken a dime from the Georgians since May 15. (Which is lucky for the Georgians, who are going to need all the spare cash they can get to rebuild all the stuff the Russians just bombed.)

According to the Washington Post, the relationship between Scheunemann and Georgia used to be very cozy (not to mention lucrative for Scheunemann). Between Jan. 1, 2007, and May 15, 2008, while Scheunemann was also a paid McCain advisor, "Georgia paid his firm $290,000 in lobbying fees."
The Bush administration supported the "color revolutions" in Russia's backyard and denounced antidemocratic crackdowns in Russia -- while making excuses for "friendly" authoritarian regimes elsewhere. The administration also virtually shut down extensive multi-issue dialogues with Russia that had been maintained by previous administrations, hammering in the message that we didn't care much about good relations with Moscow.
But it's all gone disastrously wrong for our best buddies, and we're sitting on the sidelines, offering empty reassurances to the Georgians and empty threats to the Russians.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis

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Re: Caucasus Crisis

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