Caucasus Crisis
Re: Caucasus Crisis
So who was in charge of the downhill skiing training?
Re: Caucasus Crisis
This one is a keeper. Brfee-Pandoo RM would have put "UNACCEPTABAL LANGUAGE ONLEE" on it, but apparently the Russian foreign minister does not hesitate to hurt the tender feelings of the morons in Tbilisi. BTW, what are Russian tanks doing 20 miles SOUTH of Tbilisi? That means they have cut off Tbilisi's access from the south, meaning Armenia?
Russian president slams Georgia's 'morons'
* Story Highlights
* NEW: Pentagon official: Little evidence that Russian troops leaving Georgia
* Russia begins Georgia troop "pullback," military chief says
* Russian tanks pushed through a Georgian police road block, witnesses say
* Human Rights Watch: This conflict has been a disaster for civilians
MOSCOW, Russia (CNN) -- Russia's president launched a verbal volley at Georgia's leaders on Monday, as Georgia hit back with renewed accusations that the Russian invasion was premeditated.
President Dmitry Medvedev said: "The world has seen that even today, there are political morons who are ready to kill innocent and defenseless people in order to satisfy their self-serving interests, while compensating for their own inability to resolve complicated issues by using the most terrible solution -- by exterminating an entire people.
"I think that there should be no mercy for that. We will do our best not to let this crime go unpunished."
He was speaking at a visit to the military headquarters at Vladikavkaz, near the Russian-Georgian border.
Each side accuses the other of "ethnic cleansing" during the conflict over South Ossetia, which erupted August 7.
In Washington, Georgia's ambassador to the United States said the Russian push into Georgia the following day had been long planned.
"You just don't move more than 1,200 tanks and 15,000 soldiers into a country within 12 hours without previous planning," Ambassador Vasil Sikharulidze said.
(OK, Musharraf has been replaced by a worthy successor. This guy could be Brigandoo Rashid Qureshi..) I thought Russia only sent 1,200,000,000,000 tanks and 15,000,000,000,003,0027 soldiers within 12 seconds?
The conflict began more than a week ago when Georgian troops entered the breakaway territory of South Ossetia to attack pro-Moscow separatists. Russia responded by invading the country on August 8, prompting heavy fighting with Georgian forces that spread to another breakaway territory, Abkhazia.
The Georgian troops withdrew and Russian forces took control of several areas -- prompting an international outcry. After diplomatic efforts led by France on behalf of the European Union, Georgia and Russian signed a cease-fire. France is the rotating EU head.
Russia's military says its withdrawal from Georgia has begun, but a senior Pentagon official told reporters Monday evening that there has been little evidence of Russian troops pulling out. The official did not want to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. VideoWatch more on Russian withdrawal »
"We're talking about pulling our troops away to the borders of South Ossetia. They will not be on Georgia territory," Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn, the Russian armed forces deputy chief of staff, said Monday.
White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said Russia needs to start pulling back "without delay," saying the "Russians have committed to withdrawing, and they need to withdraw. And so that is what we are looking for."
A Georgian Interior Ministry official said there have been "no signs" of a Russian troop withdrawal despite Russia's pledge to start moving back on Monday.
News footage showed Russian tanks pushing away Georgian police cars about 20 miles (32 km) south of Georgia's capital, Tbilisi.Video: Watch tanks deal with the police car »
Witnesses said Georgian police cars had been blocking the road and the police told Russian tank commanders that they were carrying out orders. The tanks proceeded to plow ahead, damaging the police cars in the process.
The Georgian Foreign Ministry said a Russian armored column had been seen moving a bit deeper into Georgian territory, traveling south from Kashuri to Borjomi. Kashuri is about 10 miles (16 km) south of South Ossetia. Another column was moving north from the Kashuri area to Sachkhere.
Nogovitsyn told reporters Russian troops were leaving Gori on Monday, the Interfax news agency said.
He did not say how many troops were withdrawing or how many would return to South Ossetia or Russia.
However, CNN journalists in Gori, near South Ossetia, said it was still under Russian control and there was no evidence the Russians were pulling out. Also, Russian tank and artillery positions were seen extending nine miles (15 km) south of Gori.
Nogovitsyn said Russia was not yet moving vessels in the Black Sea from their positions near Georgia, but they would return to Sevastopol after the settlement of the conflict.
He said Russia's deputy foreign minister had presented the U.S. ambassador to the country with a timetable of the events that led to Russia's actions and clearly indicated Georgia's responsibility.
He said a prisoner exchange involving the transfer of 12 Russians and 15 Georgians had been set up.
"We were all set and then the Georgians came up with a bunch of new requirements with no time for us to act so the time to exchange prisoners was interrupted," Nogovitsyn said.
Georgia said Russia was spreading "false" accusations and that it was ready to pursue an exchange.
The six-point deal gives no timetable for a Russian withdrawal, nor any other specifics, according to a copy of the agreement provided by Georgia's government.
A U.S. defense official told CNN about evidence of Russian SS-21 missiles and launchers in South Ossetia. Lt. Gen. Nikolai Uvarov, a Russia Defense Ministry spokesman, disputed that, telling CNN that "no, they are not present."
The U.S. official said while "Russian forces continue to consolidate their enclaves in South Ossetia and Abkhazia," they "are expected to slowly remove forces from Georgia."
...
The OSCE is working on a plan to increase its observers in the region to 100 people.
...(garbage deleted)
The conflict has devastated parts of Georgia and South Ossetia, with many casualties reported. The U.N. refugee agency said more than 158,000 people had been displaced by fighting in Georgia, mostly from districts outside the breakaway territories where the fighting began.
CNN's Bruce Conover, Jill Dougherty and Max Tkachenko in Moscow, Fred Pleitgen in Tbilisi, Georgia, Tommy Evans and Michael Ware in Gori, Georgia, and Barbara Starr at the Pentagon contributed to this report.
Find this article at:
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08 ... index.html
Re: Caucasus Crisis
the CNN report showing the BMP's pushing police cars away was filed from Gori, which was I thought north of Tbilisi...
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Bear will remain in Georgia till direction of wind becomes favorable in Brussels both at EU & NATO HQs.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
indeed. perhaps the prolonged stay is designed to humiliate NATO further. except for the
daily wailing for withdrawal there is nothing brussels can do.
winter is approaching and europe is cold...cold...with gas and heating oil
daily wailing for withdrawal there is nothing brussels can do.
winter is approaching and europe is cold...cold...with gas and heating oil
Re: Caucasus Crisis
georgia is complaining that 100s of hectares of forest is being burned by the russians.
so it looks like a 20km wide "security zone" south of the ossetian border is being studied
and built up...keeping it clear of forest would be part of the job.
NYT
On the ground in Georgia, about 25 miles outside the capital along the main highway, the four Russian armored personnel carriers passed the Russian checkpoint at Igoeti and headed in the other direction, toward Tbilisi. Soldiers were piled on top, cradling Kalashnikov rifles.
As they drove by, one old man, Koba Gurnashvili, stepped into the road and yelled at them, “Where do you think you’re going!” One of the soldiers yelled back, “To Tbilisi.”
But they did not, instead turning up a side road leading to a village near the border with South Ossetia. They stopped at an intersection blocked by Georgian police cars.
The Russian commander climbed off his tank and began arguing with the Georgian police officers. He said he had orders to move up the road; a Georgian officer said he had orders to remain on the road, and asked to call his superiors for guidance. The Russian said, “You have three minutes to move your cars.”
The two argued for a few minutes more. Then the police officers stepped away from their cars, stone-faced, with their keys. The tank smashed aside the cars and kept going.
At the entrance to the central city of Gori, which has been in Russian hands for days, Russian soldiers sat on armored personnel carriers, smoking or napping in the heat of the afternoon.
Soldiers held the main bridge and the military base, and were running checkpoints on the roads. Convoys were shuttling to Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. Some soldiers, grubby after days in the field, were swimming naked in rivers.
so it looks like a 20km wide "security zone" south of the ossetian border is being studied
and built up...keeping it clear of forest would be part of the job.
NYT
On the ground in Georgia, about 25 miles outside the capital along the main highway, the four Russian armored personnel carriers passed the Russian checkpoint at Igoeti and headed in the other direction, toward Tbilisi. Soldiers were piled on top, cradling Kalashnikov rifles.
As they drove by, one old man, Koba Gurnashvili, stepped into the road and yelled at them, “Where do you think you’re going!” One of the soldiers yelled back, “To Tbilisi.”
But they did not, instead turning up a side road leading to a village near the border with South Ossetia. They stopped at an intersection blocked by Georgian police cars.
The Russian commander climbed off his tank and began arguing with the Georgian police officers. He said he had orders to move up the road; a Georgian officer said he had orders to remain on the road, and asked to call his superiors for guidance. The Russian said, “You have three minutes to move your cars.”
The two argued for a few minutes more. Then the police officers stepped away from their cars, stone-faced, with their keys. The tank smashed aside the cars and kept going.
At the entrance to the central city of Gori, which has been in Russian hands for days, Russian soldiers sat on armored personnel carriers, smoking or napping in the heat of the afternoon.
Soldiers held the main bridge and the military base, and were running checkpoints on the roads. Convoys were shuttling to Tskhinvali, the capital of South Ossetia. Some soldiers, grubby after days in the field, were swimming naked in rivers.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Georgia Says 230,000 Ha of Forest Destroyed in Fire Caused By Russian Bombs
Posted on: Monday, 18 August 2008, 06:00 CDT
Text of report by private Georgian news agency Kavkas-Press
Tbilisi, 18 August: A fire at Georgia's Borjomi-Kharagauli nature reserve has been partially contained and no longer threatens to spread towards settled areas, Environment Minister Irakli Ghvaladze, who is at the scene, told journalists today.
"New groups of fire-fighters, local residents and rangers have been trying to extinguish the fire since morning," he said. The minister added that two planes were expected to fly in from Turkey with chemicals that would facilitate effective firefighting.
"The issue of receiving planes from Ukraine and Azerbaijan remains open, as certain problems have arisen," he said.
Ghvaladze stressed that a criminal case has been opened under the article on ecocide. "We are now gathering evidence that will prove the fire was the result of incendiary bombs and then we will file a suit against Russia for compensation of damages. This will be a significant sum, as 230,000 hectares of forest have been burnt," he said.
Posted on: Monday, 18 August 2008, 06:00 CDT
Text of report by private Georgian news agency Kavkas-Press
Tbilisi, 18 August: A fire at Georgia's Borjomi-Kharagauli nature reserve has been partially contained and no longer threatens to spread towards settled areas, Environment Minister Irakli Ghvaladze, who is at the scene, told journalists today.
"New groups of fire-fighters, local residents and rangers have been trying to extinguish the fire since morning," he said. The minister added that two planes were expected to fly in from Turkey with chemicals that would facilitate effective firefighting.
"The issue of receiving planes from Ukraine and Azerbaijan remains open, as certain problems have arisen," he said.
Ghvaladze stressed that a criminal case has been opened under the article on ecocide. "We are now gathering evidence that will prove the fire was the result of incendiary bombs and then we will file a suit against Russia for compensation of damages. This will be a significant sum, as 230,000 hectares of forest have been burnt," he said.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Looking at the Russian talk of pull back and movement in areas which are not that strategic and West's deperation for a Russian pullback. looks to me the Russians are searching for some men and equipment in Georgia which too heavy to remove without Miltary Helicopters. And course with Russia owning the airspace this equipment cant be removed by Nato. Looks like the Russians are looking for the smoking gun showing CIA involvement in Georgia
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Russian president Dmitry Medvedev vows further retribution against Georgia
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, said Georgian actions would not go 'unpunished' as the United States accused Moscow of deploying short-range missiles to positions within range of the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
By Adrian Blomfield near Gori
Last Updated: 7:49AM BST 19 Aug 2008
It is unclear whether Russian troops have started withdrawing from Georgia. ; http://link.brightcove.com/services/lin ... 1738780951 http://www.brightcove.com/channel.jsp?c ... 1139053637
Amid few signs that the Kremlin was honouring its latest pledge to withdraw troops, Mr Medvedev also threatened to "crush" any other ex-Soviet states that attempted to follow Georgia's example by killing Russian citizens.
For the first time since the conflict began 11 days ago, Mr Medvedev was allowed to stand in for Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, who has clearly been in charge of running Russia's war.
Giving a passable imitation of his predecessor, the president - who has been given coaching to imitate Mr Putin's abrasive style - adopted an uncompromising position that appeared designed to defy the United States, which has solidly backed Georgia during the conflict.
"What the Georgian authorities did exceeded human understanding," he told troops at a Russian military base in Vladikavkaz, a city in the Caucasus close to the Georgian border. "Their actions cannot be explained and moreover must not go unpunished."
Mr Medvedev gave no hint over what further retribution against Georgia he sought. Russia has already announced plans to launch a genocide investigation against the Georgian government, perhaps with the view to bringing war crimes charges against President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Meanwhile, Pentagon officials confirmed Russia had deployed short-range SS-21 missiles inside the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia, a move that is likely to unnerve Mr Saakashvili's government and undermine the already fragile ceasefire.
The SS-21 was used with devastating consequences during Russia's military campaign against separatist rebels in Chechnya.
Russia claimed it had begun to pull its troops out of undisputed Georgian territory, but if it was doing so the withdrawal seemed more cosmetic than substantial.
An American defence official said that Russia was actually sending more troops to South Ossetia and another pro-Russian enclave in Abkhazia.
"We're seeing them solidify their positions," the official was quoted as saying.
At a road junction 25 miles from Tbilisi, a confrontation brewed between Georgian policemen and Russian soldiers intent on entrenching themselves in new positions close to the capital.
A Russian commander broke the impasse by ordering the column of personnel carriers that he was leading to plough their way through two police cars blocking the track in front of them.
Asked where they were going, a Russian soldier on top of one of the carriers replied: "Tbilisi. Get your car out of the way before we crush it too."
There was little sign of redeployment from other major towns like Kaspi, Zugdidi and Senaki that have fallen under effective Russian occupation. Six Russian checkpoints blocked the route to the strategic town of Gori where Russian officers prevented journalists from entering to monitor the withdrawal.
In recent days Gori has increasingly felt as though it has become part of Russia. Mobile phones set to roaming receive messages welcoming their owners to Russia, while car radios can pick up Russian radio stations but not Georgian ones.
Despite US pleas to Mr Medvedev to keep his word after reneging on earlier promises to withdraw, there were further signs that Russia was preparing to bolster its forces in Georgia.
A battalion of Russia's 76th Guards Airborne Division was moved from Pskov to Beslam, a few miles on the Russian side of the Georgian border.
Several other battalions elsewhere in Russia have also been ordered to prepare for imminent deployment.
Russia insisted a withdrawal had begun but gave no time frame as to when it could be completed.
"I can only say we will not be leaving as fast as we came," said General Anatoly Nogovitsyn.
Mr Medvedev also sent an undisguised message to other ex-Soviet countries thinking of challenging Russia's authority.
"If anyone thinks that they can kill our citizens and escape unpunished, we will never allow this," he said. "If anyone tries this again, we will come out with a crushing response. We have all the necessary resources, political, economic and military."
Russia justified its invasion of Georgia in terms of defending its citizens of South Ossetia and Abkhazi - although it only gave Russian passports to the inhabitants of the two provinces five years ago. In the past week Ukrainian politicians have claimed that Russia has been doling out passports to residents of the Crimea, which has strong allegiances to Moscow, raising fears about the Kremlin's intentions in the region.
PS: Where can one get a Russian passport?Its citizens are the most protected and this passport is the most powerful of all today!
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, said Georgian actions would not go 'unpunished' as the United States accused Moscow of deploying short-range missiles to positions within range of the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
By Adrian Blomfield near Gori
Last Updated: 7:49AM BST 19 Aug 2008
It is unclear whether Russian troops have started withdrawing from Georgia. ; http://link.brightcove.com/services/lin ... 1738780951 http://www.brightcove.com/channel.jsp?c ... 1139053637
Amid few signs that the Kremlin was honouring its latest pledge to withdraw troops, Mr Medvedev also threatened to "crush" any other ex-Soviet states that attempted to follow Georgia's example by killing Russian citizens.
For the first time since the conflict began 11 days ago, Mr Medvedev was allowed to stand in for Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, who has clearly been in charge of running Russia's war.
Giving a passable imitation of his predecessor, the president - who has been given coaching to imitate Mr Putin's abrasive style - adopted an uncompromising position that appeared designed to defy the United States, which has solidly backed Georgia during the conflict.
"What the Georgian authorities did exceeded human understanding," he told troops at a Russian military base in Vladikavkaz, a city in the Caucasus close to the Georgian border. "Their actions cannot be explained and moreover must not go unpunished."
Mr Medvedev gave no hint over what further retribution against Georgia he sought. Russia has already announced plans to launch a genocide investigation against the Georgian government, perhaps with the view to bringing war crimes charges against President Mikheil Saakashvili.
Meanwhile, Pentagon officials confirmed Russia had deployed short-range SS-21 missiles inside the Georgian breakaway region of South Ossetia, a move that is likely to unnerve Mr Saakashvili's government and undermine the already fragile ceasefire.
The SS-21 was used with devastating consequences during Russia's military campaign against separatist rebels in Chechnya.
Russia claimed it had begun to pull its troops out of undisputed Georgian territory, but if it was doing so the withdrawal seemed more cosmetic than substantial.
An American defence official said that Russia was actually sending more troops to South Ossetia and another pro-Russian enclave in Abkhazia.
"We're seeing them solidify their positions," the official was quoted as saying.
At a road junction 25 miles from Tbilisi, a confrontation brewed between Georgian policemen and Russian soldiers intent on entrenching themselves in new positions close to the capital.
A Russian commander broke the impasse by ordering the column of personnel carriers that he was leading to plough their way through two police cars blocking the track in front of them.
Asked where they were going, a Russian soldier on top of one of the carriers replied: "Tbilisi. Get your car out of the way before we crush it too."
There was little sign of redeployment from other major towns like Kaspi, Zugdidi and Senaki that have fallen under effective Russian occupation. Six Russian checkpoints blocked the route to the strategic town of Gori where Russian officers prevented journalists from entering to monitor the withdrawal.
In recent days Gori has increasingly felt as though it has become part of Russia. Mobile phones set to roaming receive messages welcoming their owners to Russia, while car radios can pick up Russian radio stations but not Georgian ones.
Despite US pleas to Mr Medvedev to keep his word after reneging on earlier promises to withdraw, there were further signs that Russia was preparing to bolster its forces in Georgia.
A battalion of Russia's 76th Guards Airborne Division was moved from Pskov to Beslam, a few miles on the Russian side of the Georgian border.
Several other battalions elsewhere in Russia have also been ordered to prepare for imminent deployment.
Russia insisted a withdrawal had begun but gave no time frame as to when it could be completed.
"I can only say we will not be leaving as fast as we came," said General Anatoly Nogovitsyn.
Mr Medvedev also sent an undisguised message to other ex-Soviet countries thinking of challenging Russia's authority.
"If anyone thinks that they can kill our citizens and escape unpunished, we will never allow this," he said. "If anyone tries this again, we will come out with a crushing response. We have all the necessary resources, political, economic and military."
Russia justified its invasion of Georgia in terms of defending its citizens of South Ossetia and Abkhazi - although it only gave Russian passports to the inhabitants of the two provinces five years ago. In the past week Ukrainian politicians have claimed that Russia has been doling out passports to residents of the Crimea, which has strong allegiances to Moscow, raising fears about the Kremlin's intentions in the region.
PS: Where can one get a Russian passport?Its citizens are the most protected and this passport is the most powerful of all today!
Re: Caucasus Crisis
washingtonpost.com
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Is Ossetia Essential?
By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, August 19, 2008; A13
Last year, Brent Scowcroft described to the Council on Foreign Relations his "most difficult judgment call" as George H.W. Bush's national security adviser. It entailed preparing Bush for an early morning news conference regarding an attempted coup against Mikhail Gorbachev. Later on, Scowcroft was asked about the first Bush administration's decision to look the other way as Saddam Hussein's attack helicopters slaughtered Shiites in the south of Iraq. He seemed unmoved. It is not for nothing that he is called a "realist."
Now I, too, would like to become a realist -- if just for a day. I'd like to ask who among us is willing to fight to bring South Ossetia back into the Georgian fold? How about Abkhazia? These are the ethnic enclaves that Georgia claims and Russia -- not to put too fine a point on it -- supports. They are the immediate reasons for the recent war.
I ask my nasty little questions because it has been the policy of the current Bush administration to have Georgia as well as Ukraine admitted to NATO. This would mean that if either country got into a dust-up with its neighbor Russia, we would scramble the jets, stoke up the usual talk radio personalities and sally into yet another lovely war. Before this happens, can we at least debate whether this is a good idea? Cynic that I am, I have my doubts.
At the risk of sounding wishy-washy -- a cable news synonym for thoughtful -- I have not yet arrived at a position. I can see the virtue of NATO membership -- NATO's insistence on certain democratic standards, for instance -- and I don't for a moment think that every Russian objection has to be taken into account and honored. But the differences between Poland and the Czech Republic on one hand and Ukraine and Georgia on the other are considerable. The latter two either have the sort of ethnic troubles that have caused war after war in Europe or cannot yet be considered stable democracies.
Ukraine has a substantial Russian minority. It has a major (warm-water) Russian naval base. It has such an intimate relationship with Russia that Tchaikovsky, the most Russian of all composers, used Ukrainian folk songs in his Symphony No. 2, nicknamed the "Little Russian" -- the Russian nickname for Ukraine itself. As for Georgia, it doesn't have large numbers of Russians, but it does have other ethnic groups that prefer Russia to Georgia. This is not Denmark.
When Russia invaded Georgia, the brief war ignited an immense barrage of analogies and comparisons: It was Germany taking the Sudetenland (1938) or the Soviet Union rolling tanks into Czechoslovakia (1968) all over again. We will see which ones -- if any -- are apt. But one that occurs to me is the Hungarian revolt of 1956 and how the Soviets brutally extinguished it. Afterward, some inquiring minds in the U.S. government wondered whether the Hungarians had been led to expect U.S. help. They found, in the records of Radio Free Europe, several broadcasts that "implied that foreign aid would be forthcoming."
Yet another analogy occurs -- the speech that Secretary of State Dean Acheson delivered to the National Press Club in 1950 excluding South Korea from the U.S. defensive perimeter in Asia. Later that year, the North Koreans went over the 38th parallel and the Korean War began. Had the North Koreans been listening?
Both analogies -- Hungary and Korea -- are examples of the intense interest that foreign governments and other parties abroad show in the subtleties of American policy. In the case of Georgia, the body language of the Bush administration -- as well as of John McCain and others -- suggested an affinity that was unconnected to America's national interest. It's true that the Georgians might have been hearing what they wanted to hear -- or possibly thinking that the Russians were hearing something similar -- but Washington's support of NATO membership for Georgia is clear enough: We love you guys.
Just as Brent Scowcroft was not dismissing Saddam Hussein's atrocities, so, too, does wondering about further NATO expansion not take the side of Russia or excuse its inexcusable mauling of Georgia. But realism requires asking hard questions. NATO membership is a solemn commitment granted to stable democracies. Does Georgia fit that bill? How about Ukraine? Will NATO membership for those countries keep Russia in its place? And what if it doesn't? That raises the second most important question: Will we fight for Georgia? Here's the first: Can we talk about this?
Re: Caucasus Crisis
The "Big Chill" is on,with the US announcing that it is going to be "cool" towards Russia,but its NATO allies fear another kind of "big chill",that experienced every winter without Russia's oil and gas!NATO has left Uncle Sam alone to ranting and rave about Russia.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ussia.html\
US left isolated over Nato plans to maintain relations with Russia
The United States has been left diplomatically isolated after European members of NATO moved to reject an American proposal to scale back ties with Moscow following Russia's invasion of Georgia.
By Adrian Blomfield in Tbilisi
Last Updated: 3:22PM BST 19 Aug 2008
British foreign secretary David Miliband, Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State and Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister (centre) at the special meeting of the NATO council Photo: EPA
US diplomats attending an emergency NATO summit in Brussels had called on the alliance to suspend ministerial meetings with Russia, held twice a year, as a way of demonstrating the West's disapproval of the war.
But other members of the alliance, including Britain, rejected the plan, saying that it would be foolish to isolate Russia. Instead diplomats released their strongly-worded statement, stopping short of concrete action, at least for now.
David Miliband, the foreign secretary, implicitly criticized Washington's proposal to suspend the Nato-Russia council, established six-years ago to improve dialogue between Moscow and the West, as short-sighted.
"I am not one that believes that isolating Russia is the right answer to its misdemeanours," he said. "I think the right answer is hard-headed dialogue." A French diplomat, however, signaled that Nato was getting fed up with Russia's failure to carry out repeated pledges to withdraw its troops from Georgian territory and warned that the time could come for a re-examination of the West's ties with Moscow.
"We are at risk of entering, if there is not a very rapid evolution on the ground, into a relationship which will be of a different nature to what it was until now," he said.
Russia, however, seemed unfazed by the mounting criticism. Its troops smashed their way into the Black Sea port of Poti, blockaded it and then took 22 Georgian servicemen prisoner.
Russian forces last week used explosives to sink Georgian naval ships and coastguard vessels in the port as part of what appears to be a plan to damage the country's civilian and military infrastructure.
Russia has brought transport and the passage of goods, including oil bound for the West, to a halt by blowing up an important railway bridge, closing down the country's main highway and attempting to bomb a crucial BP pipeline.
There was also little sign of a Russian military withdrawal from other towns in undisputed Georgian territory where, far from pulling out, troops have been digging trenches and building concrete barricades.
Russia yesterday warned that its withdrawal was being hampered by Georgia's refusal to abide by the terms of a French-brokered ceasefire to pull back its own forces to positions held before the fighting erupted.
"Such actions seriously complicate the general situation and impede the withdrawal process," Gen Anatoly Nogovitsyn said.
With Russia in control of much of the country, there has been little sign of Georgian forces attempting to return to the positions they fled after suffering a crushing victory on the battlefield.
Russian troops, on the other hand, have taken advantage of the truce to advance within 25 miles of the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... ussia.html\
US left isolated over Nato plans to maintain relations with Russia
The United States has been left diplomatically isolated after European members of NATO moved to reject an American proposal to scale back ties with Moscow following Russia's invasion of Georgia.
By Adrian Blomfield in Tbilisi
Last Updated: 3:22PM BST 19 Aug 2008
British foreign secretary David Miliband, Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State and Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister (centre) at the special meeting of the NATO council Photo: EPA
US diplomats attending an emergency NATO summit in Brussels had called on the alliance to suspend ministerial meetings with Russia, held twice a year, as a way of demonstrating the West's disapproval of the war.
But other members of the alliance, including Britain, rejected the plan, saying that it would be foolish to isolate Russia. Instead diplomats released their strongly-worded statement, stopping short of concrete action, at least for now.
David Miliband, the foreign secretary, implicitly criticized Washington's proposal to suspend the Nato-Russia council, established six-years ago to improve dialogue between Moscow and the West, as short-sighted.
"I am not one that believes that isolating Russia is the right answer to its misdemeanours," he said. "I think the right answer is hard-headed dialogue." A French diplomat, however, signaled that Nato was getting fed up with Russia's failure to carry out repeated pledges to withdraw its troops from Georgian territory and warned that the time could come for a re-examination of the West's ties with Moscow.
"We are at risk of entering, if there is not a very rapid evolution on the ground, into a relationship which will be of a different nature to what it was until now," he said.
Russia, however, seemed unfazed by the mounting criticism. Its troops smashed their way into the Black Sea port of Poti, blockaded it and then took 22 Georgian servicemen prisoner.
Russian forces last week used explosives to sink Georgian naval ships and coastguard vessels in the port as part of what appears to be a plan to damage the country's civilian and military infrastructure.
Russia has brought transport and the passage of goods, including oil bound for the West, to a halt by blowing up an important railway bridge, closing down the country's main highway and attempting to bomb a crucial BP pipeline.
There was also little sign of a Russian military withdrawal from other towns in undisputed Georgian territory where, far from pulling out, troops have been digging trenches and building concrete barricades.
Russia yesterday warned that its withdrawal was being hampered by Georgia's refusal to abide by the terms of a French-brokered ceasefire to pull back its own forces to positions held before the fighting erupted.
"Such actions seriously complicate the general situation and impede the withdrawal process," Gen Anatoly Nogovitsyn said.
With Russia in control of much of the country, there has been little sign of Georgian forces attempting to return to the positions they fled after suffering a crushing victory on the battlefield.
Russian troops, on the other hand, have taken advantage of the truce to advance within 25 miles of the Georgian capital Tbilisi.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
The only alternative for Europe is to free up German power however theya re beholden to the Russians for energy!
I dont know what this angst about NATO and unstable countries. WHen TSP attakced India in 1965 they invoked SAETOand CENTO and no one responded. On the contrary US declared arms and spare parts embargo. Offcourse individuals meddlers like Shah of Iran sent supplies. And Turkey did something at that time.
So NATO inaction is quite understandable.
I dont know what this angst about NATO and unstable countries. WHen TSP attakced India in 1965 they invoked SAETOand CENTO and no one responded. On the contrary US declared arms and spare parts embargo. Offcourse individuals meddlers like Shah of Iran sent supplies. And Turkey did something at that time.
So NATO inaction is quite understandable.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Some military observations;
- Georgian air defence systems like the SA-11 performed fairly well, but were not nearly dense enough on the ground.
- The Georgian military communication system was completely overwhelmed by Russian physical and electronic attacks.
- Most importantly, the Georgian army was not trained or organised for defence against a superior foe. Rather the emphasis was on building a light conventional force capable of defeating insurgents and paramilitaries. That is something that the US in particular must take blame for - it built a force that cleared jihadis out of the Pankisi gorge, and then could be deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan.
Saakashvilli will probably lose power, and while a sucessor government will be far more careful about escalating conflicts with Russia, the military lessons will remain.
The military model Georgia will have to adopt will have to be something between Yugoslavia and Hezb'allah - lots of mobile SAM systems, lots of ATGMs, lots of bunkers and concealed OPs, a flexible and redundant C3 system that gives autonomy to small units intimately familar with local terrain, and a robust reserve system that can be mobilised.
Of course, American bureaucrats and defence industry lobbyists will probably push hard to stick the Georgians with a force structure that is inappropriate for their needs.
Geopolitical observations;
- The Eastern European countries that had been forced in to satellite relationships by the Tsars and later Stalin are the ones most dependent on Russian energy supplies. They are also the ones the angriest and most willing to stick Russia.
- The hinge country when it comes to overall EU policy towards Russia is Germany. Not only are they most dependent on Russian energy of any of the 5 largest of the EU's national economies, they are also making huge and growing exports to Russia.
- The EU in 2006 made a strategic decision to minimise energy dependence on Russia. They are prepared to spend billions on building new pipelines that bypass Russia to tap Caspian oil and gas. This is precisely why they will *not* accept Russian control over Georgia outside Abkhazia and S.Ossetia.
- Once again in energy policy, Germany is a hinge country. Most EU countries are moving back towards expanding nuclear energy given greenhouse gas and energy security concerns. Germany has perhaps the most entrenched anti-nuclear sentiment of any country in the world - they have an ordinance which mandates the closure of all German nuclear power plants by 2020, so building additional capacity is out of the question. Attitudes in Germany are beginning to shift with Russian behaviour and high gas prices, but consensus building in Germany is a slow process.
- Georgian air defence systems like the SA-11 performed fairly well, but were not nearly dense enough on the ground.
- The Georgian military communication system was completely overwhelmed by Russian physical and electronic attacks.
- Most importantly, the Georgian army was not trained or organised for defence against a superior foe. Rather the emphasis was on building a light conventional force capable of defeating insurgents and paramilitaries. That is something that the US in particular must take blame for - it built a force that cleared jihadis out of the Pankisi gorge, and then could be deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan.
Saakashvilli will probably lose power, and while a sucessor government will be far more careful about escalating conflicts with Russia, the military lessons will remain.
The military model Georgia will have to adopt will have to be something between Yugoslavia and Hezb'allah - lots of mobile SAM systems, lots of ATGMs, lots of bunkers and concealed OPs, a flexible and redundant C3 system that gives autonomy to small units intimately familar with local terrain, and a robust reserve system that can be mobilised.
Of course, American bureaucrats and defence industry lobbyists will probably push hard to stick the Georgians with a force structure that is inappropriate for their needs.
Geopolitical observations;
- The Eastern European countries that had been forced in to satellite relationships by the Tsars and later Stalin are the ones most dependent on Russian energy supplies. They are also the ones the angriest and most willing to stick Russia.
- The hinge country when it comes to overall EU policy towards Russia is Germany. Not only are they most dependent on Russian energy of any of the 5 largest of the EU's national economies, they are also making huge and growing exports to Russia.
- The EU in 2006 made a strategic decision to minimise energy dependence on Russia. They are prepared to spend billions on building new pipelines that bypass Russia to tap Caspian oil and gas. This is precisely why they will *not* accept Russian control over Georgia outside Abkhazia and S.Ossetia.
- Once again in energy policy, Germany is a hinge country. Most EU countries are moving back towards expanding nuclear energy given greenhouse gas and energy security concerns. Germany has perhaps the most entrenched anti-nuclear sentiment of any country in the world - they have an ordinance which mandates the closure of all German nuclear power plants by 2020, so building additional capacity is out of the question. Attitudes in Germany are beginning to shift with Russian behaviour and high gas prices, but consensus building in Germany is a slow process.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
This is Cold War II. The Russians are going to lose this big time. They can grab a few small countries along the way and gloat about it, but without economic cooperation with West, Russia is toast. Its economy is basically a white-skinned version of Middle East economies. At least the Middle East is good in reproduction, something Russians cant seem to be doing enough.
The Chinese will eat away its Far East by gradual demographic invasion and occupation. West will one day, sooner than later, find an answer to oil slavery - already the ME barbarians are giving them enough reasons to do so, Al Gore needs to be shut up, now the Russians are at it. Huge renewable energy gains are around the corner.
The Chinese will eat away its Far East by gradual demographic invasion and occupation. West will one day, sooner than later, find an answer to oil slavery - already the ME barbarians are giving them enough reasons to do so, Al Gore needs to be shut up, now the Russians are at it. Huge renewable energy gains are around the corner.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
The above post is made due to lack of understanding what drives the Russians. Its Orthodox Christianity which is at their core. One way of looking at things is that the Russians took Communism as a vehicle to jump start their society from re-feudal to modern era and dumped it when they had found it no longer useful. Please read the works of the Doestovesky (sp?) and the agonised denabte on how to modernize Russia.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Suppiah
you have much to learn about Russia, and it would seem the Middle East!
you have much to learn about Russia, and it would seem the Middle East!
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Suppaiah,
Russia in 2008 is not same as the one of 1991. A lot has changed in the last seventeen years. They have a huge reserve of every raw material, mineral - including oil and gas. Also, hundreds of western cos are heavily invested in Russia now ( a lesson learned from China), and that's why the west is more nervous about the future policy. If Putin sticks around for another ten years, things will change in the world drastically, - worse for the US inevitably.
Johann,
There is a big IF in your suggestion about future of the georgian mil strategy. IF Russia allows georgia to have that much flexibility.
Two things are looking very clear:
1. Russia will use the russian minority in the neighboring ex-soviet countries to further its agenda. From Ukraine to Estonia, russian minorities in these countries vary from 10% to 40%. Ukraine has 11 million russians who can effectively split the country into two. All russia needs is to instigate these folks for a seperate "homeland" - just as US does in other countries (instigate some minority group to forment trouble). Big bald(bad?) eagle - uncle sam will be in a tough position to counter this move.
2. Russia understands one of its main handicaps - the declining population size. It has been declining at a rate of about 0.7 for the last several years. For the last two years, under Putin's direction, russian orthodox church has stepped in to promote "family values" and
encouraging families to have more children. On the economic front also, the improving economic condition is clearly visible from one parameter - stream of third world countries' labor/students/job seekers are crowding russian embassies now which was unimaginable even ten years ago. it'll be interesting to see how things evolve in the next ten years.
Russia in 2008 is not same as the one of 1991. A lot has changed in the last seventeen years. They have a huge reserve of every raw material, mineral - including oil and gas. Also, hundreds of western cos are heavily invested in Russia now ( a lesson learned from China), and that's why the west is more nervous about the future policy. If Putin sticks around for another ten years, things will change in the world drastically, - worse for the US inevitably.
Johann,
There is a big IF in your suggestion about future of the georgian mil strategy. IF Russia allows georgia to have that much flexibility.
Two things are looking very clear:
1. Russia will use the russian minority in the neighboring ex-soviet countries to further its agenda. From Ukraine to Estonia, russian minorities in these countries vary from 10% to 40%. Ukraine has 11 million russians who can effectively split the country into two. All russia needs is to instigate these folks for a seperate "homeland" - just as US does in other countries (instigate some minority group to forment trouble). Big bald(bad?) eagle - uncle sam will be in a tough position to counter this move.
2. Russia understands one of its main handicaps - the declining population size. It has been declining at a rate of about 0.7 for the last several years. For the last two years, under Putin's direction, russian orthodox church has stepped in to promote "family values" and
encouraging families to have more children. On the economic front also, the improving economic condition is clearly visible from one parameter - stream of third world countries' labor/students/job seekers are crowding russian embassies now which was unimaginable even ten years ago. it'll be interesting to see how things evolve in the next ten years.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Utterly pointless Europe
Chan Akya at Asia times rips into EU pretensions at seriousness and/or weight.
Fun read, with a pinch of salt though.
Chan Akya at Asia times rips into EU pretensions at seriousness and/or weight.
Fun read, with a pinch of salt though.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Has this been posted before? Class act.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 86,00.html
8/18/2008 SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH GERHARD SCHRÖDER
'Serious Mistakes by the West' Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder discusses the war in the Caucasus, the possibility of Germany serving as an intermediary in the conflict and his belief in a constructive role for Russia.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Schröder, who is at fault for the Caucasus war?
Gerhard Schröder: The hostilities undoubtedly have their historic causes, as well, and the conflict has had several historic precursors. But the moment that triggered the current armed hostilities was the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia. This should not be glossed over.
SPIEGEL: You see no partial fault on Moscow's part, no lack of proportionality in the actions of the Russian military?
Schröder: That is something I cannot and do not wish to judge. But we know, of course, that military conflicts develop their own dynamics. The crucial issue now is that all parties involved will take advantage of the French president's six-point plan.
SPIEGEL: Do you believe that the American military advisors stationed in Tbilisi encouraged Georgia to launch its attack?
Schröder: I wouldn't go that far. But everyone knows that these US military advisors in Georgia exist -- a deployment that I've never considered particularly intelligent. And it would have been strange if these experts had not had any information. Either they were extremely unprofessional or they were truly fooled, which is hard to imagine.
SPIEGEL: The US government claims that it warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili against taking military action. But wasn't the whole thing only too convenient for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin?
Schröder: These are speculations in which I prefer not to participate. I assume that no one in the Moscow leadership has an interest in military conflicts. There are enough internal problems in Russia that need to be solved. For instance, corruption and abuse of authority must be addressed. Russia has plenty of deficits, an issue I've addressed many a time. President (Dmitry) Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin are addressing these problems -- together, by the way, in friendship and mutual respect, not in competition with one another, as journalistic fortune-tellers often imply.
SPIEGEL: That may well be, but something else is now at stake: Russia has never overcome the loss of its superpower status, and in recent years it has felt cornered and humiliated by NATO. During the wars in the Balkans, the Iraq invasion by the "Coalition of the Willing" under Washington's leadership, the Kosovo declaration of independence ...
Schröder: ... don't forget the development of an American missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic ...
SPIEGEL: ... the Kremlin has been forced to look on. Isn't it possible that an economically and militarily strengthened Moscow now sees US friend Saakashvili as the best possible opportunity to retaliate against the West? And that Putin wants to assert imperial claims?
Schröder: In my view, there have indeed been serious mistakes made by the West in its policy toward Russia. Can we conclude that this bears some relationship to the recent events in the Caucasus, as Russia's response, so to speak, to the Georgian provocation? I think it's wrong to combine these two notions.
SPIEGEL: You don't share the newly erupted fear among many in the West of a "Russian threat?"
Schröder: No, not at all. There is a perception of Russia in the West that has very little to do with reality.
SPIEGEL: Could the new, highly self-confident leadership duo in Moscow feel that the West needs them more than they need the West?
Schröder: It is a mutual dependency. There is not a single critical problem in world politics or the global economy that could be solved without Russia -- not the nuclear conflict with Iran, the North Korea question and certainly not bringing peace to the Middle East. The set of problems relating to the climate can also only be addressed universally. Incidentally, Moscow ratified the Kyoto Protocol to fight global warming, while we are still waiting for Washington to do so. And when it comes to energy policy, only dreamers can pursue the idea that Western Europe could become independent of Russian oil and natural gas. On the other hand, the Russians need reliable buyers for their energy shipments.
SPIEGEL: You see no reason, in light of the harsh actions in the Caucasus, to terminate the special German-Russian "strategic partnership," or at least to put it on ice?
Schröder: No. I don't see why this concept should be jeopardized because of Georgia. Mutual dependencies also create mutual securities. I am also opposed to criticism of Russian investments in Germany. Who should have a problem with Mr. (Alexei) Mordashov investing in the (tourism company) TUI, Mr. (Oleg) Deripaska owning 10 percent of (the construction company) Hochtief or another oligarch owning a share of the fashion house Escada? I would like to see more and not less investment in the German economy. Historically speaking, such economic integration has proven to be politically beneficial.
SPIEGEL: Now you sound like (former US Secretary of State) Henry Kissinger. Have you always thought this way?
Schröder: Certainly not in my Young Socialist days. But ever since I became professionally involved in foreign policy as chancellor, this sober approach has always been my preference -- and it's certainly the most reasonable one.
SPIEGEL: With all due respect to cool-headed realpolitik: Don't we have to draw a red line now, one that Moscow cannot cross if it wants to continue playing a role in international institutions and as a partner of the West? Immediate withdrawal of all troops from Georgia, for example, and recognition of its territorial integrity, as US Secretary of State Rice has vehemently demanded?
Schröder: I do not believe that Russia is pursuing a policy of annexation. And I also do not believe that there can be a return to the status quo ante in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. It's out of the question. In my opinion, this has less to do with supposed Russian expansionist interests than with the wishes of the civilian population.
SPIEGEL: Should Germany participate militarily in a peacekeeping force in the Caucasus?
Schröder: The German foreign minister has long been involved in the search for political solutions through his shuttle diplomacy, and he has astutely said that if the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were to play a role in coordination with the parties to the conflict, Germany could not be uninvolved. However, if there is a mission without express Russian consent, I do not want to see any German soldiers stationed there. This is simply a matter of our shared history.
SPIEGEL: Does Georgia belong in NATO?
Schröder: I thought that the German government -- and I certainly wish to compliment Ms. Merkel and Mr. Steinmeier in this regard -- together with the French government, took the smart approach at the NATO summit in Bucharest in April ...
SPIEGEL: ... because they opposed the Americans' and the Eastern Europeans' desire for fast acceptance of Georgia and Ukraine, and instead shelved the issue with what amounted to vague promises.
Schröder: Imagine if we were forced to intervene militarily on behalf of Georgia as a NATO country, on behalf of an obvious gambler, which is clearly the way one ought to characterize Saakashvili. Georgia and Ukraine must first resolve their domestic political problems, and they are still a long way off. I see the chances of Georgian accession becoming even more remote as a result of the recent events in the Caucasus and, in this connection, I have great difficulties following the rather ostentatious promises made by the NATO secretary general a few days ago.
SPIEGEL: The Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, followed up by saying: "Today we're all Georgians."
Schröder: I am not.
SPIEGEL: Robert Kagan, an idol of the neoconservatives and still the Republicans' leading foreign policy thinker, has defined the day of Russia's invasion of Georgia as the beginning of renewed territorial conflicts between the major powers and "as a turning point no less significant than Nov. 9, 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell."
Schröder: I read that, but it too means nothing to me. Kagan, after all, was one of the men who strongly advised intervening in Iraq. The consequences were not pleasant, neither for America nor Europe. Perhaps one should simply not listen to his advice.
SPIEGEL: In an article in Die Zeit a few weeks ago, you wrote that the "transitional phase of American dominance" is now coming to an end. What exactly did you mean by that? And does this automatically lead to the conclusion of a multipolar, better world?
Schröder: The end of unipolar America is not just evident in the rise of a Democratic presidential candidate, Obama, but also in the policies of rationally thinking Republicans. If you read the nonpartisan Baker-Hamilton report on the future of Iraq, you will find it difficult not to recognize that the next US president will hardly have any other choice but to act in a multipolar way -- no matter what one politician or another says in the US election campaign.SPIEGEL: Regardless of whether the next man in charge at the White House is Barack Obama or John McCain?
Schröder: Of course that will make a difference. But I believe that even a Republican administration, which I certainly am not hoping for, could not avoid taking a more multipolar approach once again, involving allies and working together with international organizations. Apparently those in Washington have also understood that one can win wars alone, but not the peace.
SPIEGEL: What role should Europe play in this multipolar world? Isn't there a sharp division between countries like Germany, France and Italy, who are unwilling, especially now, to allow cooperation with Moscow to come to an end, and the Baltic states, Poland and the Czech Republic, all characterized by their fear of Russia (more...)?
Schröder: The process of European unification on foreign and security policy certainly has not become easier since I left office as chancellor in 2005. This also has something to do with the integration of the newly added states. This unification process must be understood as a historic opportunity, even if it has its price.
SPIEGEL: It is dragging on.
Schröder: That is precisely the price. Europe will only be able to play a true role in the context between America, on the one side, and Asia, on the other, if it manages to establish and maintain a strong relationship with Russia. I see Russia as part of Europe, more than as part of any other constellation.
SPIEGEL: And is that how Russia sees itself?
Schröder: At least it is the way the current leadership sees it. And we in Germany and Europe should interpret this as an opportunity. Russia has an Asian alternative, but Europe does not. Besides, such a constellation does not necessarily have to lead to Europe distancing itself from the United States.
SPIEGEL: This sounds very optimistic. You don't see a remake of the Cold War developing?
Schröder: No. At least it would not be in the Russian leadership's interest. I am completely opposed to demonizing Russia. And I believe that Moscow will soon see the need, once again, for greater integration into the international community.
SPIEGEL: And Washington will refrain from punishing the Kremlin leadership and forcing Russia out of organizations like the G-8?
Schröder: This narrow view, which McCain, for example, holds, will not prevail -- that's what I hope and expect.
SPIEGEL: Are you speaking in your capacity as former chancellor or as an employee of the Russian state-owned company Gazprom?
Schröder: SPIEGEL should not participate in the spreading of misinformation. I am not anyone's employee, but rather the chairman of the shareholders' committee of Nord Stream, a Dutch-German-Russian joint venture, whose sole purpose is to build a pipeline through the Baltic Sea that will make Germany's and Europe's gas supply significantly more secure.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Schröder, we thank you for this interview.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 86,00.html
8/18/2008 SPIEGEL INTERVIEW WITH GERHARD SCHRÖDER
'Serious Mistakes by the West' Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder discusses the war in the Caucasus, the possibility of Germany serving as an intermediary in the conflict and his belief in a constructive role for Russia.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Schröder, who is at fault for the Caucasus war?
Gerhard Schröder: The hostilities undoubtedly have their historic causes, as well, and the conflict has had several historic precursors. But the moment that triggered the current armed hostilities was the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia. This should not be glossed over.
SPIEGEL: You see no partial fault on Moscow's part, no lack of proportionality in the actions of the Russian military?
Schröder: That is something I cannot and do not wish to judge. But we know, of course, that military conflicts develop their own dynamics. The crucial issue now is that all parties involved will take advantage of the French president's six-point plan.
SPIEGEL: Do you believe that the American military advisors stationed in Tbilisi encouraged Georgia to launch its attack?
Schröder: I wouldn't go that far. But everyone knows that these US military advisors in Georgia exist -- a deployment that I've never considered particularly intelligent. And it would have been strange if these experts had not had any information. Either they were extremely unprofessional or they were truly fooled, which is hard to imagine.
SPIEGEL: The US government claims that it warned Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili against taking military action. But wasn't the whole thing only too convenient for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin?
Schröder: These are speculations in which I prefer not to participate. I assume that no one in the Moscow leadership has an interest in military conflicts. There are enough internal problems in Russia that need to be solved. For instance, corruption and abuse of authority must be addressed. Russia has plenty of deficits, an issue I've addressed many a time. President (Dmitry) Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin are addressing these problems -- together, by the way, in friendship and mutual respect, not in competition with one another, as journalistic fortune-tellers often imply.
SPIEGEL: That may well be, but something else is now at stake: Russia has never overcome the loss of its superpower status, and in recent years it has felt cornered and humiliated by NATO. During the wars in the Balkans, the Iraq invasion by the "Coalition of the Willing" under Washington's leadership, the Kosovo declaration of independence ...
Schröder: ... don't forget the development of an American missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic ...
SPIEGEL: ... the Kremlin has been forced to look on. Isn't it possible that an economically and militarily strengthened Moscow now sees US friend Saakashvili as the best possible opportunity to retaliate against the West? And that Putin wants to assert imperial claims?
Schröder: In my view, there have indeed been serious mistakes made by the West in its policy toward Russia. Can we conclude that this bears some relationship to the recent events in the Caucasus, as Russia's response, so to speak, to the Georgian provocation? I think it's wrong to combine these two notions.
SPIEGEL: You don't share the newly erupted fear among many in the West of a "Russian threat?"
Schröder: No, not at all. There is a perception of Russia in the West that has very little to do with reality.
SPIEGEL: Could the new, highly self-confident leadership duo in Moscow feel that the West needs them more than they need the West?
Schröder: It is a mutual dependency. There is not a single critical problem in world politics or the global economy that could be solved without Russia -- not the nuclear conflict with Iran, the North Korea question and certainly not bringing peace to the Middle East. The set of problems relating to the climate can also only be addressed universally. Incidentally, Moscow ratified the Kyoto Protocol to fight global warming, while we are still waiting for Washington to do so. And when it comes to energy policy, only dreamers can pursue the idea that Western Europe could become independent of Russian oil and natural gas. On the other hand, the Russians need reliable buyers for their energy shipments.
SPIEGEL: You see no reason, in light of the harsh actions in the Caucasus, to terminate the special German-Russian "strategic partnership," or at least to put it on ice?
Schröder: No. I don't see why this concept should be jeopardized because of Georgia. Mutual dependencies also create mutual securities. I am also opposed to criticism of Russian investments in Germany. Who should have a problem with Mr. (Alexei) Mordashov investing in the (tourism company) TUI, Mr. (Oleg) Deripaska owning 10 percent of (the construction company) Hochtief or another oligarch owning a share of the fashion house Escada? I would like to see more and not less investment in the German economy. Historically speaking, such economic integration has proven to be politically beneficial.
SPIEGEL: Now you sound like (former US Secretary of State) Henry Kissinger. Have you always thought this way?
Schröder: Certainly not in my Young Socialist days. But ever since I became professionally involved in foreign policy as chancellor, this sober approach has always been my preference -- and it's certainly the most reasonable one.
SPIEGEL: With all due respect to cool-headed realpolitik: Don't we have to draw a red line now, one that Moscow cannot cross if it wants to continue playing a role in international institutions and as a partner of the West? Immediate withdrawal of all troops from Georgia, for example, and recognition of its territorial integrity, as US Secretary of State Rice has vehemently demanded?
Schröder: I do not believe that Russia is pursuing a policy of annexation. And I also do not believe that there can be a return to the status quo ante in South Ossetia or Abkhazia. It's out of the question. In my opinion, this has less to do with supposed Russian expansionist interests than with the wishes of the civilian population.
SPIEGEL: Should Germany participate militarily in a peacekeeping force in the Caucasus?
Schröder: The German foreign minister has long been involved in the search for political solutions through his shuttle diplomacy, and he has astutely said that if the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) were to play a role in coordination with the parties to the conflict, Germany could not be uninvolved. However, if there is a mission without express Russian consent, I do not want to see any German soldiers stationed there. This is simply a matter of our shared history.
SPIEGEL: Does Georgia belong in NATO?
Schröder: I thought that the German government -- and I certainly wish to compliment Ms. Merkel and Mr. Steinmeier in this regard -- together with the French government, took the smart approach at the NATO summit in Bucharest in April ...
SPIEGEL: ... because they opposed the Americans' and the Eastern Europeans' desire for fast acceptance of Georgia and Ukraine, and instead shelved the issue with what amounted to vague promises.
Schröder: Imagine if we were forced to intervene militarily on behalf of Georgia as a NATO country, on behalf of an obvious gambler, which is clearly the way one ought to characterize Saakashvili. Georgia and Ukraine must first resolve their domestic political problems, and they are still a long way off. I see the chances of Georgian accession becoming even more remote as a result of the recent events in the Caucasus and, in this connection, I have great difficulties following the rather ostentatious promises made by the NATO secretary general a few days ago.
SPIEGEL: The Republican presidential candidate, John McCain, followed up by saying: "Today we're all Georgians."
Schröder: I am not.
SPIEGEL: Robert Kagan, an idol of the neoconservatives and still the Republicans' leading foreign policy thinker, has defined the day of Russia's invasion of Georgia as the beginning of renewed territorial conflicts between the major powers and "as a turning point no less significant than Nov. 9, 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell."
Schröder: I read that, but it too means nothing to me. Kagan, after all, was one of the men who strongly advised intervening in Iraq. The consequences were not pleasant, neither for America nor Europe. Perhaps one should simply not listen to his advice.
SPIEGEL: In an article in Die Zeit a few weeks ago, you wrote that the "transitional phase of American dominance" is now coming to an end. What exactly did you mean by that? And does this automatically lead to the conclusion of a multipolar, better world?
Schröder: The end of unipolar America is not just evident in the rise of a Democratic presidential candidate, Obama, but also in the policies of rationally thinking Republicans. If you read the nonpartisan Baker-Hamilton report on the future of Iraq, you will find it difficult not to recognize that the next US president will hardly have any other choice but to act in a multipolar way -- no matter what one politician or another says in the US election campaign.SPIEGEL: Regardless of whether the next man in charge at the White House is Barack Obama or John McCain?
Schröder: Of course that will make a difference. But I believe that even a Republican administration, which I certainly am not hoping for, could not avoid taking a more multipolar approach once again, involving allies and working together with international organizations. Apparently those in Washington have also understood that one can win wars alone, but not the peace.
SPIEGEL: What role should Europe play in this multipolar world? Isn't there a sharp division between countries like Germany, France and Italy, who are unwilling, especially now, to allow cooperation with Moscow to come to an end, and the Baltic states, Poland and the Czech Republic, all characterized by their fear of Russia (more...)?
Schröder: The process of European unification on foreign and security policy certainly has not become easier since I left office as chancellor in 2005. This also has something to do with the integration of the newly added states. This unification process must be understood as a historic opportunity, even if it has its price.
SPIEGEL: It is dragging on.
Schröder: That is precisely the price. Europe will only be able to play a true role in the context between America, on the one side, and Asia, on the other, if it manages to establish and maintain a strong relationship with Russia. I see Russia as part of Europe, more than as part of any other constellation.
SPIEGEL: And is that how Russia sees itself?
Schröder: At least it is the way the current leadership sees it. And we in Germany and Europe should interpret this as an opportunity. Russia has an Asian alternative, but Europe does not. Besides, such a constellation does not necessarily have to lead to Europe distancing itself from the United States.
SPIEGEL: This sounds very optimistic. You don't see a remake of the Cold War developing?
Schröder: No. At least it would not be in the Russian leadership's interest. I am completely opposed to demonizing Russia. And I believe that Moscow will soon see the need, once again, for greater integration into the international community.
SPIEGEL: And Washington will refrain from punishing the Kremlin leadership and forcing Russia out of organizations like the G-8?
Schröder: This narrow view, which McCain, for example, holds, will not prevail -- that's what I hope and expect.
SPIEGEL: Are you speaking in your capacity as former chancellor or as an employee of the Russian state-owned company Gazprom?
Schröder: SPIEGEL should not participate in the spreading of misinformation. I am not anyone's employee, but rather the chairman of the shareholders' committee of Nord Stream, a Dutch-German-Russian joint venture, whose sole purpose is to build a pipeline through the Baltic Sea that will make Germany's and Europe's gas supply significantly more secure.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Schröder, we thank you for this interview.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Ramana, the question is not what drives them, but where this drive is likely to end up.ramana wrote:The above post is made due to lack of understanding what drives the Russians.
Kati, yes Russia is and has always been resource rich. It has not found ways to use them well to raise living standards and become hi-tech economy like the west, hence the comparison to ME.
Anyway, the post is more in the nature of a prediction, so there is not much point arguing about it. Let us watch the events.
As to the one-line post by some self-proclaimed expert on ME/Russia, such idiotic,arrogant and i-know-it-all posts should not be given space on this forum.
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Karan Dixit
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- Location: Calcutta
Re: Caucasus Crisis
In order for Russia to successfully counter NATO alliance, it has to create a network of prosperous nations with Russia as the center of the network. This network will allow the countries to prosper together. And together these like minded countries can pose a challenge to NATO dominated world.
No country has all the resources needed to raise the standard of living to a desired level. That is where network comes in to play. One country may have agricultural resources, another may have cheap labor, another may have service based economy, another may have sound industrial strength and so on.
First Russia has to build sound economy and military only then Russia can act as a core around which the said network can be constructed.
No country has all the resources needed to raise the standard of living to a desired level. That is where network comes in to play. One country may have agricultural resources, another may have cheap labor, another may have service based economy, another may have sound industrial strength and so on.
First Russia has to build sound economy and military only then Russia can act as a core around which the said network can be constructed.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Karan, I agree. For Russia to build a military-economic eco system around itself, it should first work on its image in its own backyard. Its actions in Georgia, and vulgar threats to Poland, to put it mildly, dont help. Its image is already bad and you have its neighbours falling over each other courting the west. All said and done US has neutral states/friends in its backyard (barring mosquito bites like Cuba/Venezuela) so it can easily venture out and challenge others, whether it is morally justifiable or not. China too has that advantage. India doesn't unfortunately.
In Soviet days the oil and resource wealth was used on military hardware and launch expensive adventures like the one in Afghanistan. It left Russia with the ability to launch space stations and fighter jets but not able to make or sell a decent TV set, ballpoint pen or car. When economic reality started biting, aided by aggressive Reagnism, the whole system collapsed. Putin is setting the stage for a repeat of this.
One desirable outcome would be if due to decline of oil price, Russians get tired of Putin and his ways and ditch him for a more moderate pro-western leader. Overtime, like the British and French got used to life without colonies, if the Russians get used to reduce size and influence, this will happen. The present course would leave Russia at the mercy of China and that is not something a ultra-nationalistic leader can sell to his people.
In Soviet days the oil and resource wealth was used on military hardware and launch expensive adventures like the one in Afghanistan. It left Russia with the ability to launch space stations and fighter jets but not able to make or sell a decent TV set, ballpoint pen or car. When economic reality started biting, aided by aggressive Reagnism, the whole system collapsed. Putin is setting the stage for a repeat of this.
One desirable outcome would be if due to decline of oil price, Russians get tired of Putin and his ways and ditch him for a more moderate pro-western leader. Overtime, like the British and French got used to life without colonies, if the Russians get used to reduce size and influence, this will happen. The present course would leave Russia at the mercy of China and that is not something a ultra-nationalistic leader can sell to his people.
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pradeepe
- BRFite
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Re: Caucasus Crisis
IMHO, as the new oiropean cold war gains momentum between western oirope and Russia, egged on by the US (they need an enemy badly and China is not playing well enough) the ones who get smug once again are the mid-eastern states. I expect them to be once again to be courted by both sides like earlier in the century. They must be licking their chops. Both Oirope and Russia should watch out. Oirope more so IMHO. Their first moves would be into oirope.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Its no longer ideological as Fukuyama so eloquently said in 1988 in his book "End of History".. And if you go back in history it was Russia that stopped the Turks.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
IMO, Tough days ahead of Russia, if it pullsback from Georgia. Pullback from Georgia will encourage NATO block to arm eastern Europe. Russia should start arming every US enemy with nukes, if NATO block wants to arm Russian neighbours and use them as a base to attack Russia. Russians were soft powers stuck to ideologies. Time to act hard. Otherwise Russia will loose their battle and eventually the war with the west.
NATO pledges 'no business as usual' with Russia
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi- ... 2043.story
Georgia operations go on, despite deal
By Alex Rodriguez | Chicago Tribune correspondent
August 20, 2008
GORI, Georgia—With Russian forces dug into hilltops and along roads across Georgia despite a 3-day-old pledge to move troops out, NATO's top official said Tuesday that "there can be no business as usual" between the Kremlin and the Western alliance but stopped short of any concrete retaliation against Russia for its role in the 12-day crisis.
NATO pledges 'no business as usual' with Russia
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi- ... 2043.story
Georgia operations go on, despite deal
By Alex Rodriguez | Chicago Tribune correspondent
August 20, 2008
GORI, Georgia—With Russian forces dug into hilltops and along roads across Georgia despite a 3-day-old pledge to move troops out, NATO's top official said Tuesday that "there can be no business as usual" between the Kremlin and the Western alliance but stopped short of any concrete retaliation against Russia for its role in the 12-day crisis.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
I was thinking the same thing - look at where this game is going.
US starts new Cold War with Russia, pours high-tech military gear on Georgia, Poland, Ukraine, etc. Pushes NATO right up to the Russian border and works to isolate and punish Russia diplomatically.
Russia starts selling their best high-tech weaponry to Iran, Syria.
US\Isreal arm Chechens with Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stingers, etc - restart Chechnya war.
Russia supplies Iraqi resistance with their best anti-tank weapons and MANPAD's, EFP mines, etc. US troop losses go back up to pre-surge levels or higher, Iraq success story vanishes.
US\Isreal attack Iran, Syria, Hezbollah.
Russia picks a fight with Georgia or Ukraine, champions oppressed Armenians in Georgia or downtrodden Russians in Ukraine, or what have you.
Now you've got the US and Russia fighting wars all over the place while Islamists the world over are celebrating. This sort of scenario is all too likely given the way things are going. I'm dumbfounded by just how badly the neocons have managed to f**k up everything they touch. Not only have they failed miserably against "Islamofascism" but they've also managed to transform natural ally Russia into an enemy. Not just an enemy but a very pissed off one, full of righteous indignation at the blatant aggression and unfairness meted out by the US. They're not turning Russia into a lukewarm enemy - they're transforming those people into some truly passionate haters of the United States.
Of course, the US military-industrial-oil companies are loving it. US foreign policy disasters and endless war are these companies bread and butter. But when will the common US citizen figure this out?
US starts new Cold War with Russia, pours high-tech military gear on Georgia, Poland, Ukraine, etc. Pushes NATO right up to the Russian border and works to isolate and punish Russia diplomatically.
Russia starts selling their best high-tech weaponry to Iran, Syria.
US\Isreal arm Chechens with Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stingers, etc - restart Chechnya war.
Russia supplies Iraqi resistance with their best anti-tank weapons and MANPAD's, EFP mines, etc. US troop losses go back up to pre-surge levels or higher, Iraq success story vanishes.
US\Isreal attack Iran, Syria, Hezbollah.
Russia picks a fight with Georgia or Ukraine, champions oppressed Armenians in Georgia or downtrodden Russians in Ukraine, or what have you.
Now you've got the US and Russia fighting wars all over the place while Islamists the world over are celebrating. This sort of scenario is all too likely given the way things are going. I'm dumbfounded by just how badly the neocons have managed to f**k up everything they touch. Not only have they failed miserably against "Islamofascism" but they've also managed to transform natural ally Russia into an enemy. Not just an enemy but a very pissed off one, full of righteous indignation at the blatant aggression and unfairness meted out by the US. They're not turning Russia into a lukewarm enemy - they're transforming those people into some truly passionate haters of the United States.
Of course, the US military-industrial-oil companies are loving it. US foreign policy disasters and endless war are these companies bread and butter. But when will the common US citizen figure this out?
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Russia stopped many powerful people, including Nepolian and Hitler.ramana wrote:Its no longer ideological as Fukuyama so eloquently said in 1988 in his book "End of History".. And if you go back in history it was Russia that stopped the Turks.
People may be underestimating bear power.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Don't discount Saudi-Iran conflict in this scenario.Y. Kanan wrote:Now you've got the US and Russia fighting wars all over the place while Islamists the world over are celebrating. This sort of scenario is all too likely given the way things are going. I'm dumbfounded by just how badly the neocons have managed to f**k up everything they touch. Not only have they failed miserably against "Islamofascism" but they've also managed to transform natural ally Russia into an enemy. Not just an enemy but a very pissed off one, full of righteous indignation at the blatant aggression and unfairness meted out by the US. They're not turning Russia into a lukewarm enemy - they're transforming those people into some truly passionate haters of the United States.
I can smell a reason why US wants India on its side.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
I am not sure about what happened with Nepolean, but when Russia fought with Hitler, they were fighting alongside the allies (US/UK and west) in WWIIshyam wrote:Russia stopped many powerful people, including Nepolian and Hitler.ramana wrote:Its no longer ideological as Fukuyama so eloquently said in 1988 in his book "End of History".. And if you go back in history it was Russia that stopped the Turks.
People may be underestimating bear power.
Similarly, now Russia should use the neethi of enemy's enemy is a friend and start arming all enemies of the west (including US and its allies) with all sort of offensive weopanary including short / medium range missiles armed with nukes, if the west starts arming Eastern EU with defensive weapons. That's the only way the world can rest in peace. As some one said in the forum, Russia should build allies in terms of economy, military and to a degree technologically in countering the west. I am damn sure Russisa will get allies to counter US, as the US have earned several enemies due to their own follies. Russian technology armed with alllies manpower is the way to go for Russia.
Last edited by renukb on 20 Aug 2008 12:12, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
India should not side with US, as the troubled days are ahead in our neighbourhood. We don't want troubles to spill over in our subcontinent. Good relations with neighbours will help India, but India can co-operate with US where it can gain economically / technologically.shyam wrote:Don't discount Saudi-Iran conflict in this scenario.Y. Kanan wrote:Now you've got the US and Russia fighting wars all over the place while Islamists the world over are celebrating. This sort of scenario is all too likely given the way things are going. I'm dumbfounded by just how badly the neocons have managed to f**k up everything they touch. Not only have they failed miserably against "Islamofascism" but they've also managed to transform natural ally Russia into an enemy. Not just an enemy but a very pissed off one, full of righteous indignation at the blatant aggression and unfairness meted out by the US. They're not turning Russia into a lukewarm enemy - they're transforming those people into some truly passionate haters of the United States.
I can smell a reason why US wants India on its side.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
Why should Russia listen to west and withdraw from Georgia, while US and the west are in occupation of Iraq?
Re: Caucasus Crisis
China seeks Caucasian crisis windfall
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH19Ag01.html
.................
US's differentiated approach
A differentiated approach towards Russia and China is already apparent in the US agenda regarding the deployment of the missile defense system. As a Russian commentator put it, "An analysis of America's global missile defense system shows that Washington is deploying its elements primarily in Eastern Europe rather than Japan, or other Asian countries or Australia. This is probably because Washington does not want to irritate China, which could respond by stepping up the development of its own missile program and increasing the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles on combat duty."
China doesn't quite bleep on the US radar as a strategic power of consequence for another 20 years. But Russia has been yesterday's threat and today's challenge, and its resurgence promises to make it a potential threat tomorrow.
As well-known Sovietologist Professor Stephen Cohen wrote recently, "Despite its diminished status following the Soviet breakup in 1991, Russia alone possesses weapons that can destroy the United States, a military-industrial complex nearly America's equal in exporting arms ... and the planet's largest oil and natural gas reserves. It also remains the world's largest territorial country, pivotally situated in the West and the East, at the crossroads of colliding civilizations, with strategic capabilities from Europe, Iran and other Middle East nations to North Korea, China, India, Afghanistan and even Latin America. All things considered, our national security may depend more on Russia than Russia's does on us."
Therefore, the US is not going to limit itself to Poland and the Czech Republic, but once it refines the technology of creating a missile defense deployment in Poland, it will be on the lookout for building more positioning areas, and for the next few years at least, Washington will have its hands full confronting Russia with dozens of positioning areas on its borders. The big ticket will be Ukraine's induction, a country which already possesses advanced missile technologies of the Soviet era. In short, Washington's preoccupations on Russia's western and southwestern borders for the foreseeable future suit China perfectly well.
...........
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH19Ag01.html
.................
US's differentiated approach
A differentiated approach towards Russia and China is already apparent in the US agenda regarding the deployment of the missile defense system. As a Russian commentator put it, "An analysis of America's global missile defense system shows that Washington is deploying its elements primarily in Eastern Europe rather than Japan, or other Asian countries or Australia. This is probably because Washington does not want to irritate China, which could respond by stepping up the development of its own missile program and increasing the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles on combat duty."
China doesn't quite bleep on the US radar as a strategic power of consequence for another 20 years. But Russia has been yesterday's threat and today's challenge, and its resurgence promises to make it a potential threat tomorrow.
As well-known Sovietologist Professor Stephen Cohen wrote recently, "Despite its diminished status following the Soviet breakup in 1991, Russia alone possesses weapons that can destroy the United States, a military-industrial complex nearly America's equal in exporting arms ... and the planet's largest oil and natural gas reserves. It also remains the world's largest territorial country, pivotally situated in the West and the East, at the crossroads of colliding civilizations, with strategic capabilities from Europe, Iran and other Middle East nations to North Korea, China, India, Afghanistan and even Latin America. All things considered, our national security may depend more on Russia than Russia's does on us."
Therefore, the US is not going to limit itself to Poland and the Czech Republic, but once it refines the technology of creating a missile defense deployment in Poland, it will be on the lookout for building more positioning areas, and for the next few years at least, Washington will have its hands full confronting Russia with dozens of positioning areas on its borders. The big ticket will be Ukraine's induction, a country which already possesses advanced missile technologies of the Soviet era. In short, Washington's preoccupations on Russia's western and southwestern borders for the foreseeable future suit China perfectly well.
...........
Last edited by renukb on 20 Aug 2008 13:30, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
It is astonishing to see how petty CW attitudes persist in the west,especially in the US and UK (understandable as the establishment has never forgotten or forgiven Russia for the execution of the last Czar and his family,relatives of the British royal family),when engaging Russia economically,integrating its huge petro-mineral wealth into the EU makes sound economic and strategic strength.There is absolutely NO reason to encircle Russia by NATO expansion further east.Bringing in former Warsaw Pact states into the EU but not into NATO is preferable.Installing missiles in Poland with the lame excuse of detering Iran's missiles is simply ludicrous.As Iran would launch its missiles at NATO states (if at all) in a west,north-westerly direction and not north.
It is eminently clear that the architects of this dangerous policy sit in Washington and not at NATO HQ at Brussels.Moreover,NATO is now battling in Afghanistan,in South Asia and not fighting anyone in Europe! The US wants nothing less than global economic and military domination and therein lies the problem.Stealing Iraq's oil wealth has been achieved,but the failure of "capturing" Russia by Putin's crackdown on the greedy oligarchs who previously controlled the Russian economy and who live in the west,rankles in the conspiratorial minds of Washington.Like the "mouth of Sauron" emanating from the black gate of Mordor in the Lord of the Rings,so does Condy Rice ,the "dark witch" of US foreign policy mouth her warped,false view of Georgian adventurism in the Caucasus and threatening to punish Russia.First let the US deal with the footsoldiers of Taliban,who are advancing upon Kabul before it threatens the other superpower!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... -fashioned tank charge has brought allies closer together
Giles Whittell
The Nato chiefs who gathered yesterday in Brussels have reason to be dismayed — but only if they make the mistake of blurring tactics and strategy.
With a thoroughly old-fashioned tank charge, Russia has won a tactical coup in the Caucasus. It has rubbed salt in Georgian and American wounds by blindfolding Georgian troops in American Humvees in the port of Poti and forcing US officials to demand their vehicles back.
Farther east yesterday, Nato suffered another tactical setback with the loss of ten French soldiers to Taleban fighters.
The casualties were tragic and the timing unfortunate. But the two conflicts are separate. More importantly, the newer of the two, in Georgia, makes Nato expansion more likely rather than less. This is precisely the outcome that Russia had hoped to avoid. Two weeks ago Nato was divided not only on the question of Georgia’s headlong bid for membership, but also on the broader issue of whether it was worth antagonising Moscow with further expansion into the former Soviet Union. Germany, France and Italy argued against. At their request, Nato pointedly refrained from setting a timetable for Georgian membership at its summit in Bucharest in March.
Vladimir Putin's mastery checkmates the West
Michael Binyon says Russia has been biding its time - but its victory in Georgia has been brutal and brilliant
What a difference a short war can make. By sending its 58th Army through the Roki tunnel into South Ossetia, Moscow hoped at the very least to deepen Nato divisions.
The opposite has happened. Instead of arguing that the crisis proved her point about the need for restraint, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has explicitly endorsed Georgia’s bid for membership. France may still have its doubts. If so, they remain private. There are two main reasons for Nato’s newfound unity. First, there is a strengthening consensus that Moscow would have acted with more restraint had Georgia already been in Nato, protected by its principle of collective security.
As one expert with long experience of the region put it yesterday: “The thought of the US Air Force on its way would have deterred even Vladimir Putin.”
Secondly, the “frozen” conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that stood in the way of Georgian membership have, rightly or wrongly, unfrozen.
Moscow’s coup is to have seized de facto control of these two tiny provinces. It has done so at huge cost to its diplomatic standing and may yet suffer serious economic isolation as a long-term result of the conflict.
Nato was wrongfooted but not substantially weakened. It may have struggled to gain the upper hand against the Taleban but, as the Cold War showed, nothing unites the West’s otherwise quarrelsome democracies quite so effectively as a nuclear superpower.
Have your say
In 1990 NATO pledged not to expand its frontiers to the East, and has been expanding ever since: 10 new members, now Georgia and Ukrain lined up. Georgia's membership is now less likely than ever. Poorest country in region, disorganized army, lots of ethnic problems, uncontrollable leader.
Rusty, Columbus, USA
According to the latest census in 1998 there were about 80.000 Alanians (Ossetians) and nearly 20.000 Georgians to live in S. Ossetia. A number of both nationalities reduced significantly after the 1991-92 war. It would be well to note a big number of Alanians from inner regions of Georgia escaped in N. Ossetia that time.
Alexey, Moscow,
We are all being treated as idiots by the Georgians. They invaded, without asking NATO's agreement, Russian ethnic provinces that had legitimately and democratically seceded long ago. Now they expect NATO to protect them from the justified retribution and protective action of the Russians.
Tom MacIntrye, Ottawa,
This "small beautiful democracy" Georgian style is what Nato really needs. Saakashvili has been treating his domestic critics in no better way than Putin his. That is, with teargas and rubber truncheons. Him being a democrat means him hating Russia and speaking English fluently, period.
Van Zong, Berlin,
Russia will never suffer any economic isolation, 'cause she can send all that oil and gas to the China instead. West will loose any way!
Alex Iatskovski, New York, USA
It is eminently clear that the architects of this dangerous policy sit in Washington and not at NATO HQ at Brussels.Moreover,NATO is now battling in Afghanistan,in South Asia and not fighting anyone in Europe! The US wants nothing less than global economic and military domination and therein lies the problem.Stealing Iraq's oil wealth has been achieved,but the failure of "capturing" Russia by Putin's crackdown on the greedy oligarchs who previously controlled the Russian economy and who live in the west,rankles in the conspiratorial minds of Washington.Like the "mouth of Sauron" emanating from the black gate of Mordor in the Lord of the Rings,so does Condy Rice ,the "dark witch" of US foreign policy mouth her warped,false view of Georgian adventurism in the Caucasus and threatening to punish Russia.First let the US deal with the footsoldiers of Taliban,who are advancing upon Kabul before it threatens the other superpower!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... -fashioned tank charge has brought allies closer together
Giles Whittell
The Nato chiefs who gathered yesterday in Brussels have reason to be dismayed — but only if they make the mistake of blurring tactics and strategy.
With a thoroughly old-fashioned tank charge, Russia has won a tactical coup in the Caucasus. It has rubbed salt in Georgian and American wounds by blindfolding Georgian troops in American Humvees in the port of Poti and forcing US officials to demand their vehicles back.
Farther east yesterday, Nato suffered another tactical setback with the loss of ten French soldiers to Taleban fighters.
The casualties were tragic and the timing unfortunate. But the two conflicts are separate. More importantly, the newer of the two, in Georgia, makes Nato expansion more likely rather than less. This is precisely the outcome that Russia had hoped to avoid. Two weeks ago Nato was divided not only on the question of Georgia’s headlong bid for membership, but also on the broader issue of whether it was worth antagonising Moscow with further expansion into the former Soviet Union. Germany, France and Italy argued against. At their request, Nato pointedly refrained from setting a timetable for Georgian membership at its summit in Bucharest in March.
Vladimir Putin's mastery checkmates the West
Michael Binyon says Russia has been biding its time - but its victory in Georgia has been brutal and brilliant
What a difference a short war can make. By sending its 58th Army through the Roki tunnel into South Ossetia, Moscow hoped at the very least to deepen Nato divisions.
The opposite has happened. Instead of arguing that the crisis proved her point about the need for restraint, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, has explicitly endorsed Georgia’s bid for membership. France may still have its doubts. If so, they remain private. There are two main reasons for Nato’s newfound unity. First, there is a strengthening consensus that Moscow would have acted with more restraint had Georgia already been in Nato, protected by its principle of collective security.
As one expert with long experience of the region put it yesterday: “The thought of the US Air Force on its way would have deterred even Vladimir Putin.”
Secondly, the “frozen” conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia that stood in the way of Georgian membership have, rightly or wrongly, unfrozen.
Moscow’s coup is to have seized de facto control of these two tiny provinces. It has done so at huge cost to its diplomatic standing and may yet suffer serious economic isolation as a long-term result of the conflict.
Nato was wrongfooted but not substantially weakened. It may have struggled to gain the upper hand against the Taleban but, as the Cold War showed, nothing unites the West’s otherwise quarrelsome democracies quite so effectively as a nuclear superpower.
Have your say
In 1990 NATO pledged not to expand its frontiers to the East, and has been expanding ever since: 10 new members, now Georgia and Ukrain lined up. Georgia's membership is now less likely than ever. Poorest country in region, disorganized army, lots of ethnic problems, uncontrollable leader.
Rusty, Columbus, USA
According to the latest census in 1998 there were about 80.000 Alanians (Ossetians) and nearly 20.000 Georgians to live in S. Ossetia. A number of both nationalities reduced significantly after the 1991-92 war. It would be well to note a big number of Alanians from inner regions of Georgia escaped in N. Ossetia that time.
Alexey, Moscow,
We are all being treated as idiots by the Georgians. They invaded, without asking NATO's agreement, Russian ethnic provinces that had legitimately and democratically seceded long ago. Now they expect NATO to protect them from the justified retribution and protective action of the Russians.
Tom MacIntrye, Ottawa,
This "small beautiful democracy" Georgian style is what Nato really needs. Saakashvili has been treating his domestic critics in no better way than Putin his. That is, with teargas and rubber truncheons. Him being a democrat means him hating Russia and speaking English fluently, period.
Van Zong, Berlin,
Russia will never suffer any economic isolation, 'cause she can send all that oil and gas to the China instead. West will loose any way!
Alex Iatskovski, New York, USA
Re: Caucasus Crisis
A new world order: The week Russia flexed its military muscle
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 02741.html
A six-day conflict in the Caucasus mountains has transformed the international balance of power, with Russia now looking stronger than ever. But what sparked it? Diplomatic Editor Anne Penketh reveals how the Georgian government walked straight into a trap set by Moscow – and considers the consequences of the first war in Europe for a decade
Wednesday, 20 August 2008
Ukraine risks wrath of Russia as Yushchenko sides with the West
Nato freezes ties with Moscow
Denis MacShane: The mood has darkened across the whole of Europe
The Georgian president was on vacation in Italy. The defence minister and foreign minister were away on holiday too. The world's attention was riveted on the Olympic Games in Beijing, where the preparations for the lavish opening ceremony were in full swing.
Days later, the forces of the small, mountainous republic of Georgia, trained by American and Israeli experts, were fighting for the survival of their country against Russia's army in a vicious six-day war that brought Russia and the US into direct confrontation for the first time since the Cold War and led to a threat of nuclear conflagration.
The outcome was the humiliating rout of the Georgian army, pushed back by a huge Russian land, air and sea assault, and the loss of Georgia's two breakaway territories over which the government had intended to assert central control. And Russia is back at the forefront of a new world order in the dying days of the Bush presidency.
Few would have predicted that the firefights in Georgia's breakaway territory of South Ossetia between ethnic Ossetians and Georgian forces in the first week of August would escalate into a David versus Goliath combat in the Caucasus on 8 August. On that day, Vladimir Putin and George Bush were sitting only a few feet apart at the Olympic ceremony. The US president watched events through binoculars. He remained a spectator during the conflict, too, watching closely but letting it be known that the US would not intervene militarily to save Georgia.
As the dust begins to settle, it is becoming clear – based on accounts from Georgian officials, Russian officials and Western diplomats – that the pro-Western government of Georgia fell into a trap set by Russia following Nato's loss of nerve at a summit in April, when Nato leaders declined to offer Georgia a firm timetable for membership. And when Russia hit back with overwhelming force, the West was caught napping.
The Rose Revolution, 2003: the root of the conflict
The peaks of the Caucasus mountains rise like a giant barrier between Russia and Georgia, which under Soviet rule had tense relations with its powerful neighbour to the north. But relations between the Kremlin and Georgia deteriorated sharply after the election of President Mikheil Saakashvili in the "Rose revolution" of 2003. The enmity between Georgia's pro-Western leader, whose ambition is to take his country into the European Union and Nato, and the then Russian president, Putin, became personal. The US-trained Saakashvili upset the Kremlin with his election pledge to bring the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia back under Georgian rule.
The Russian peacekeepers deployed in both regions for 16 years had long been accused of firing up the separatists. But the roots of this month's conflict lay in the Western-backed declaration of independence by Kosovo last February, fiercely opposed by Russia on the grounds that it would unilaterally change the borders of Europe. Russia threatened to recognise the breakaway regions in response, and had tightened links with ethnic Ossetians and Abkhaz by handing out Russian passports.
For Russia, Nato's encroachment on its borders has long been of supreme strategic importance. On 20 April, following Nato's decision to offer Georgia and Ukraine eventual membership but not a timetable after yielding to Russian pressure, the Georgians accused Russia of shooting down an Israeli-made drone over Abkhazia. Other provocations followed. Saakashvili says that every time he sounded the alarm in the West, he was told: "Oh no, no, the Russians would never bomb anybody."
In July, the local South Ossetian leader, Dmitri Sanakoyev, was the target of an assassination attempt. The same month, while the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, was in Tbilisi warning Saakashvili not to respond to Russian provocations, two Russian fighters violated Georgian airspace and Russia didn't even bother to deny it. Yet Rice's presence is Tbilisi might have sent another mixed message to Georgia about the strength of US support.
1 August 2008: The trap is set
According to the Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, "a decision was made for the war to start in August. The war would have happened regardless of what the Georgians did. Whether they responded to the provocations or not, there would have been an invasion of Georgia. The goal was to destroy Georgia's central government, defeat the Georgian army, and prevent Georgia from joining Nato."
On 1 August, tensions deepened when six Georgian police officers were attacked, and five badly wounded, by two remote-controlled explosions in South Ossetia. The Georgians, who according to diplomats were spoiling for a fight, say they did not retaliate. However, according to the Russians, the South Ossetian capital and other villages were hit by "massive fire" that night by Georgian forces, causing the first fatalities.
The next day, six civilians and a Georgian policemen were injured during the shelling of Georgian villages in South Ossetia. According to the Georgian prime minister, it was the first time since the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping mission in South Ossetia that the separatist rebels had used heavy artillery, in violation of accords. The Georgians accused Russia of using the two-and-a-half-mile Roki tunnel, connecting North and South Ossetia through the mountains, to supply the rebels with arms and munitions.
On 6 August, a foreign visitor who spent two hours with the Georgian president described him as ready for the fight, diplomatically and militarily. He was "not depressed, but under huge pressure". "He has been calling [Angela] Merkel, [Nicolas] Sarkozy and Rice for months and they have all been telling him to stop worrying, that the Russians won't do anything, and they've basically been ignoring him."
On 7 August, the day before the Olympics began, the Georgian negotiator, Temuri Yakobashvili, went to the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali for direct talks with the de facto separatist leader and a Russian envoy. Yakobashvili recalls that Tskhinvali already looked like a ghost town. But the Russian diplomat, Yuri Popov, failed to show up for the meeting at a Russian military base, saying that his car had a flat tyre. "Can't you change the tyre?" the incredulous Georgian negotiator asked the Russian who was supposed to be chairing the talks. No, he replied, as he did not have a spare.
Then, the South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity failed to show up. Yakobashvili asked the Russian general who headed the joint peacekeeping commission what to do, and was told: "Declare a ceasefire." So, that night at 7 pm, Saakashvili went on television and declared a unilateral ceasefire. But by that time, Georgian tanks and troops were on the move.
At 10.30pm, two Georgian peacekeepers were killed and six injured when the rebels opened fire on Georgian positions. But the attack that prompted Georgia's full-scale attack, at about midnight on 7 August, was a bombardment of the villages of Tamarasheni and Kurta, close to Tskhinvali.
Then, the Georgians say, came the "tipping point". They say the US showed them satellite photographs of 150 Russian tanks entering the Roki tunnel, although the Georgians have refused to provide such evidence. The Russians insist their build-up through the tunnel came only after the Georgians attacked Tskhinvali, killing 15 Russian peacekeepers. "This was a heavy armoured Russian column, moving slowly, on very rugged terrain in the highest mountain range in Europe," says Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze of Georgia. "Think how many hours of preparation, assembly, then marching, it would take for that column, moving at that speed on rugged terrain, to be at the Kurta bridge at six in the morning. If that isn't a premeditated invasion, I don't know what is." They were regular Russian troops, not peacekeepers, heading to Tskhinvali.
As the skirmishes grew, the Georgian president decided against travelling to the Olympics, got off his plane 15 minutes before take-off, and began calling Western allies, although he did not ask for military support. Saakashvili says he was also "frantically" calling Moscow – but Prime Minister Putin's secretary "told me to call back".
Just before midnight, Saakashvili spoke with his military commanders and the Georgian forces let rip with the Grad rockets – known as Stalin's organ – which lit up the night sky in a massive offensive on Tskhinvali, which lasted four to five hours. The initial 3,000 Georgian soldiers were not prepared for the punitive response, in which Russia poured in thousands more troops to Tskhinvali, saying they were acting to protect their own citizens after Russian peacekeepers were killed in the Georgian blitz. The firepower of the Russian bombers and infantry in the city was so intense that the Georgians had to retreat twice on 8 August. But the day after the offensive, Saakashvili said it was ordered "to restore constitutional order" – in other words, according to Western diplomats, he had confirmed that the attack was a Georgian aggression. The Russian deputy military chief of staff, General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, claimed the city had been flattened by the Georgian attack. "Tskhinvali doesn't exist, it's like Stalingrad was after the war," he said.
Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov, expressed astonishment to a BBC interviewer at the international reaction to the Russian invasion of Georgia proper in the wake of the Tskhinvali fighting. "Any civilised country would act the same way. I may remind you [that on] September 11, the reaction was similar. American citizens were killed. You know the reaction."
8 august: Olympic diplomacy
President Sarkozy of France learnt of the Georgian offensive at the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, where he and his 11-year-old son Louis bumped into Vladimir Putin. The French President, whose country holds the EU presidency, decided to get involved in the increasingly urgent search for a ceasefire after Bush told Putin at the Olympics that Russia's "disproportionate" response was "unacceptable".
On Saturday 9 August, Putin was in the southern Caucasus hearing refugees' tales of a "genocide" against the South Ossetians. For their part, the Georgians were condemning "ethnic cleansing" by the Russians. Claims and counter-claims of thousands of casualties were made by both sides. The French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, was dispatched to Tbilisi on the Sunday as he initiated a shuttle diplomacy between Georgia and Russia without the usual diplomatic nicety of securing an EU mandate. He travelled with the Finnish Foreign Minister, Alexander Stubb, the acting president of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
Anxious for credibility as honest brokers, the pair visited Ossetian refugees at a camp in North Ossetia, which is part of the Russian Federation. They travelled with Saakashvili to Gori, where Russian tanks had taken up position, but had to be hustled to safety in a security scare before leaving for Moscow.
Sarkozy was determined to talk to the Russians directly but, with his foreign minister in Moscow on 11 August, he made it clear to President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia that he would refuse to go if the Russians were insisting on the removal of Saakashvili. Sarkozy flew to Moscow the next day, where Putin – who clearly remains the Russian leader despite switching jobs in May – joined the negotiations with Medvedev.
12 August: The ceasefire deal
At a news conference with Sarkozy after several hours of talks, Medvedev announced that Russia had agreed to a six-point peace plan, starting with a ceasefire in Georgia. He read out the details, which consisted of an agreement on the non-use of force and a cessation of hostilities. The plan provided for humanitarian access, and the return of the Georgian armed forces to barracks. The Russian army was to pull back to lines held prior to the hostilities, while Russian peacekeeping forces would take additional security measures "pending an international mechanism". Finally, the agreement called for international discussions on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Sarkozy arrived in Tbilisi that night with the document in his pocket. Rather than appear at a rally with the Georgian leader, he ducked into the parliament building where they huddled with advisers to discuss the agreement. It became apparent to Saakashvili that the Russians held all the cards. However, he refused to agree to the sixth point calling for international discussions on the status of the breakaway territories. It took another phone call from Sarkozy to Medvedev, who agreed new wording providing for international talks on "security and stability arrangements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia".
The French and Georgian presidents then went out and addressed the crowds in Tbilisi, where the presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Ukraine were on hand in a show of solidarity with Saakashvili. The deal was done. However, neither the Russian nor the Georgian leader had actually signed the ceasefire agreement. And the Lithuanian President, Valdas Adamkus, was already comparing the pact to the 1938 Munich agreement.
The next day, Bernard Kouchner flew to brief EU foreign ministers in Brussels, where it had already become apparent that the accord contained a significant loophole enabling the Russian "peacekeepers" to remain in Georgia proper, pending the arrival of international monitors. The French negotiator admitted to his colleagues that the agreement "isn't perfect" and still needed "clarification" despite going through three or four versions.
The EU ministers approved the main principles of the accord, which was only clarified after a further round of talks involving Condoleezza Rice, Sarkozy and the Russian leaders at the end of last week. Europe was split among the hardliners (such as Poland and the Baltic states) demanding a tough line, and those who believed this was counterproductive when military action was not being contemplated (such as the French and the Germans). But the ministers agreed to insert the principle of Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity into their final communiqué.
What happens next?
But it was too late; the damage was done. Saakashvili, who dared to stand up to the Russian bear, is defeated and isolated. He is bitter and has accused the West of betrayal. The Russians did not even have to physically remove him from power; their destruction of his country's infrastructure and military capability will see to that. They have made it clear that he can forget about ever recovering Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The Georgian opposition, whose leaders kept silent while Russian tanks were pounding their cities, have begun to speak out. The woman tipped as a leading contender to succeed Saakashvili as president, the former parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze, predicts a thorough analysis of "what happened, and why it happened".
Beyond Georgia's borders, the conflict has revived fears of a new Cold War. It sent Poland rushing to sign a missile defence pact with America that had bogged down in negotiations amid fierce Russian opposition. But the agreement prompted an immediate warning from Russia's General Nogovitsyn that the missile sites would be added to Moscow's list of nuclear targets.
Ukraine, the other former Soviet republic that aspires to become a Nato member, has also raised the stakes by offering to co-operate with the US on the missile defence shield. Nato yesterday reaffirmed its offer of eventual membership to both Georgia and Ukraine.
But the Kremlin, and the rest of the world, now know that the democracies of the West do not have the appetite to force through such a decision. They have received loud and clear the message marked on the Russian bombs that fell on Georgia: "This is for Nato."
Additional reporting by Shaun Walker and Kim Sengupta in Tbilisi
The key players
Vladimir Putin
The Russian Prime Minister and former president has eclipsed his successor as president, Dmitry Medvedev, by his handling of the war and involvement in negotiations.
Nicolas Sarkozy
The French President launched a diplomatic mission for a ceasefire on behalf of the European Union while the UN was paralysed.
Bernard Kouchner
The French Foreign Minister did much of the important legwork in the negotiations through his visits to Georgia and Russia, accompanied by Alexander Stubb.
Alexander Stubb
The Finnish Foreign Minister is chairman of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which led negotiations with Georgia and deployed observers.
Mikheil Saakashvili
The President of Georgia, whose pledge to bring Georgia's breakaway regions under central control brought him into conflict with Moscow.
Yuri Popov
The Russian special envoy heads his country's delegation to a joint commission for the settlement of the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict. The commission has not met formally since last year.
Temuri Yakobashvili
The Georgian special envoy is also Minister of State for the Reintegration of Georgia; his job is to recover the breakaway regions. His ministerial title has proved unpopular with the Russians, who support the separatists.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 02741.html
A six-day conflict in the Caucasus mountains has transformed the international balance of power, with Russia now looking stronger than ever. But what sparked it? Diplomatic Editor Anne Penketh reveals how the Georgian government walked straight into a trap set by Moscow – and considers the consequences of the first war in Europe for a decade
Wednesday, 20 August 2008
Ukraine risks wrath of Russia as Yushchenko sides with the West
Nato freezes ties with Moscow
Denis MacShane: The mood has darkened across the whole of Europe
The Georgian president was on vacation in Italy. The defence minister and foreign minister were away on holiday too. The world's attention was riveted on the Olympic Games in Beijing, where the preparations for the lavish opening ceremony were in full swing.
Days later, the forces of the small, mountainous republic of Georgia, trained by American and Israeli experts, were fighting for the survival of their country against Russia's army in a vicious six-day war that brought Russia and the US into direct confrontation for the first time since the Cold War and led to a threat of nuclear conflagration.
The outcome was the humiliating rout of the Georgian army, pushed back by a huge Russian land, air and sea assault, and the loss of Georgia's two breakaway territories over which the government had intended to assert central control. And Russia is back at the forefront of a new world order in the dying days of the Bush presidency.
Few would have predicted that the firefights in Georgia's breakaway territory of South Ossetia between ethnic Ossetians and Georgian forces in the first week of August would escalate into a David versus Goliath combat in the Caucasus on 8 August. On that day, Vladimir Putin and George Bush were sitting only a few feet apart at the Olympic ceremony. The US president watched events through binoculars. He remained a spectator during the conflict, too, watching closely but letting it be known that the US would not intervene militarily to save Georgia.
As the dust begins to settle, it is becoming clear – based on accounts from Georgian officials, Russian officials and Western diplomats – that the pro-Western government of Georgia fell into a trap set by Russia following Nato's loss of nerve at a summit in April, when Nato leaders declined to offer Georgia a firm timetable for membership. And when Russia hit back with overwhelming force, the West was caught napping.
The Rose Revolution, 2003: the root of the conflict
The peaks of the Caucasus mountains rise like a giant barrier between Russia and Georgia, which under Soviet rule had tense relations with its powerful neighbour to the north. But relations between the Kremlin and Georgia deteriorated sharply after the election of President Mikheil Saakashvili in the "Rose revolution" of 2003. The enmity between Georgia's pro-Western leader, whose ambition is to take his country into the European Union and Nato, and the then Russian president, Putin, became personal. The US-trained Saakashvili upset the Kremlin with his election pledge to bring the territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia back under Georgian rule.
The Russian peacekeepers deployed in both regions for 16 years had long been accused of firing up the separatists. But the roots of this month's conflict lay in the Western-backed declaration of independence by Kosovo last February, fiercely opposed by Russia on the grounds that it would unilaterally change the borders of Europe. Russia threatened to recognise the breakaway regions in response, and had tightened links with ethnic Ossetians and Abkhaz by handing out Russian passports.
For Russia, Nato's encroachment on its borders has long been of supreme strategic importance. On 20 April, following Nato's decision to offer Georgia and Ukraine eventual membership but not a timetable after yielding to Russian pressure, the Georgians accused Russia of shooting down an Israeli-made drone over Abkhazia. Other provocations followed. Saakashvili says that every time he sounded the alarm in the West, he was told: "Oh no, no, the Russians would never bomb anybody."
In July, the local South Ossetian leader, Dmitri Sanakoyev, was the target of an assassination attempt. The same month, while the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, was in Tbilisi warning Saakashvili not to respond to Russian provocations, two Russian fighters violated Georgian airspace and Russia didn't even bother to deny it. Yet Rice's presence is Tbilisi might have sent another mixed message to Georgia about the strength of US support.
1 August 2008: The trap is set
According to the Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer, "a decision was made for the war to start in August. The war would have happened regardless of what the Georgians did. Whether they responded to the provocations or not, there would have been an invasion of Georgia. The goal was to destroy Georgia's central government, defeat the Georgian army, and prevent Georgia from joining Nato."
On 1 August, tensions deepened when six Georgian police officers were attacked, and five badly wounded, by two remote-controlled explosions in South Ossetia. The Georgians, who according to diplomats were spoiling for a fight, say they did not retaliate. However, according to the Russians, the South Ossetian capital and other villages were hit by "massive fire" that night by Georgian forces, causing the first fatalities.
The next day, six civilians and a Georgian policemen were injured during the shelling of Georgian villages in South Ossetia. According to the Georgian prime minister, it was the first time since the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping mission in South Ossetia that the separatist rebels had used heavy artillery, in violation of accords. The Georgians accused Russia of using the two-and-a-half-mile Roki tunnel, connecting North and South Ossetia through the mountains, to supply the rebels with arms and munitions.
On 6 August, a foreign visitor who spent two hours with the Georgian president described him as ready for the fight, diplomatically and militarily. He was "not depressed, but under huge pressure". "He has been calling [Angela] Merkel, [Nicolas] Sarkozy and Rice for months and they have all been telling him to stop worrying, that the Russians won't do anything, and they've basically been ignoring him."
On 7 August, the day before the Olympics began, the Georgian negotiator, Temuri Yakobashvili, went to the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali for direct talks with the de facto separatist leader and a Russian envoy. Yakobashvili recalls that Tskhinvali already looked like a ghost town. But the Russian diplomat, Yuri Popov, failed to show up for the meeting at a Russian military base, saying that his car had a flat tyre. "Can't you change the tyre?" the incredulous Georgian negotiator asked the Russian who was supposed to be chairing the talks. No, he replied, as he did not have a spare.
Then, the South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity failed to show up. Yakobashvili asked the Russian general who headed the joint peacekeeping commission what to do, and was told: "Declare a ceasefire." So, that night at 7 pm, Saakashvili went on television and declared a unilateral ceasefire. But by that time, Georgian tanks and troops were on the move.
At 10.30pm, two Georgian peacekeepers were killed and six injured when the rebels opened fire on Georgian positions. But the attack that prompted Georgia's full-scale attack, at about midnight on 7 August, was a bombardment of the villages of Tamarasheni and Kurta, close to Tskhinvali.
Then, the Georgians say, came the "tipping point". They say the US showed them satellite photographs of 150 Russian tanks entering the Roki tunnel, although the Georgians have refused to provide such evidence. The Russians insist their build-up through the tunnel came only after the Georgians attacked Tskhinvali, killing 15 Russian peacekeepers. "This was a heavy armoured Russian column, moving slowly, on very rugged terrain in the highest mountain range in Europe," says Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze of Georgia. "Think how many hours of preparation, assembly, then marching, it would take for that column, moving at that speed on rugged terrain, to be at the Kurta bridge at six in the morning. If that isn't a premeditated invasion, I don't know what is." They were regular Russian troops, not peacekeepers, heading to Tskhinvali.
As the skirmishes grew, the Georgian president decided against travelling to the Olympics, got off his plane 15 minutes before take-off, and began calling Western allies, although he did not ask for military support. Saakashvili says he was also "frantically" calling Moscow – but Prime Minister Putin's secretary "told me to call back".
Just before midnight, Saakashvili spoke with his military commanders and the Georgian forces let rip with the Grad rockets – known as Stalin's organ – which lit up the night sky in a massive offensive on Tskhinvali, which lasted four to five hours. The initial 3,000 Georgian soldiers were not prepared for the punitive response, in which Russia poured in thousands more troops to Tskhinvali, saying they were acting to protect their own citizens after Russian peacekeepers were killed in the Georgian blitz. The firepower of the Russian bombers and infantry in the city was so intense that the Georgians had to retreat twice on 8 August. But the day after the offensive, Saakashvili said it was ordered "to restore constitutional order" – in other words, according to Western diplomats, he had confirmed that the attack was a Georgian aggression. The Russian deputy military chief of staff, General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, claimed the city had been flattened by the Georgian attack. "Tskhinvali doesn't exist, it's like Stalingrad was after the war," he said.
Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov, expressed astonishment to a BBC interviewer at the international reaction to the Russian invasion of Georgia proper in the wake of the Tskhinvali fighting. "Any civilised country would act the same way. I may remind you [that on] September 11, the reaction was similar. American citizens were killed. You know the reaction."
8 august: Olympic diplomacy
President Sarkozy of France learnt of the Georgian offensive at the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, where he and his 11-year-old son Louis bumped into Vladimir Putin. The French President, whose country holds the EU presidency, decided to get involved in the increasingly urgent search for a ceasefire after Bush told Putin at the Olympics that Russia's "disproportionate" response was "unacceptable".
On Saturday 9 August, Putin was in the southern Caucasus hearing refugees' tales of a "genocide" against the South Ossetians. For their part, the Georgians were condemning "ethnic cleansing" by the Russians. Claims and counter-claims of thousands of casualties were made by both sides. The French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, was dispatched to Tbilisi on the Sunday as he initiated a shuttle diplomacy between Georgia and Russia without the usual diplomatic nicety of securing an EU mandate. He travelled with the Finnish Foreign Minister, Alexander Stubb, the acting president of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
Anxious for credibility as honest brokers, the pair visited Ossetian refugees at a camp in North Ossetia, which is part of the Russian Federation. They travelled with Saakashvili to Gori, where Russian tanks had taken up position, but had to be hustled to safety in a security scare before leaving for Moscow.
Sarkozy was determined to talk to the Russians directly but, with his foreign minister in Moscow on 11 August, he made it clear to President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia that he would refuse to go if the Russians were insisting on the removal of Saakashvili. Sarkozy flew to Moscow the next day, where Putin – who clearly remains the Russian leader despite switching jobs in May – joined the negotiations with Medvedev.
12 August: The ceasefire deal
At a news conference with Sarkozy after several hours of talks, Medvedev announced that Russia had agreed to a six-point peace plan, starting with a ceasefire in Georgia. He read out the details, which consisted of an agreement on the non-use of force and a cessation of hostilities. The plan provided for humanitarian access, and the return of the Georgian armed forces to barracks. The Russian army was to pull back to lines held prior to the hostilities, while Russian peacekeeping forces would take additional security measures "pending an international mechanism". Finally, the agreement called for international discussions on the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Sarkozy arrived in Tbilisi that night with the document in his pocket. Rather than appear at a rally with the Georgian leader, he ducked into the parliament building where they huddled with advisers to discuss the agreement. It became apparent to Saakashvili that the Russians held all the cards. However, he refused to agree to the sixth point calling for international discussions on the status of the breakaway territories. It took another phone call from Sarkozy to Medvedev, who agreed new wording providing for international talks on "security and stability arrangements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia".
The French and Georgian presidents then went out and addressed the crowds in Tbilisi, where the presidents of Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Ukraine were on hand in a show of solidarity with Saakashvili. The deal was done. However, neither the Russian nor the Georgian leader had actually signed the ceasefire agreement. And the Lithuanian President, Valdas Adamkus, was already comparing the pact to the 1938 Munich agreement.
The next day, Bernard Kouchner flew to brief EU foreign ministers in Brussels, where it had already become apparent that the accord contained a significant loophole enabling the Russian "peacekeepers" to remain in Georgia proper, pending the arrival of international monitors. The French negotiator admitted to his colleagues that the agreement "isn't perfect" and still needed "clarification" despite going through three or four versions.
The EU ministers approved the main principles of the accord, which was only clarified after a further round of talks involving Condoleezza Rice, Sarkozy and the Russian leaders at the end of last week. Europe was split among the hardliners (such as Poland and the Baltic states) demanding a tough line, and those who believed this was counterproductive when military action was not being contemplated (such as the French and the Germans). But the ministers agreed to insert the principle of Georgian sovereignty and territorial integrity into their final communiqué.
What happens next?
But it was too late; the damage was done. Saakashvili, who dared to stand up to the Russian bear, is defeated and isolated. He is bitter and has accused the West of betrayal. The Russians did not even have to physically remove him from power; their destruction of his country's infrastructure and military capability will see to that. They have made it clear that he can forget about ever recovering Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The Georgian opposition, whose leaders kept silent while Russian tanks were pounding their cities, have begun to speak out. The woman tipped as a leading contender to succeed Saakashvili as president, the former parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze, predicts a thorough analysis of "what happened, and why it happened".
Beyond Georgia's borders, the conflict has revived fears of a new Cold War. It sent Poland rushing to sign a missile defence pact with America that had bogged down in negotiations amid fierce Russian opposition. But the agreement prompted an immediate warning from Russia's General Nogovitsyn that the missile sites would be added to Moscow's list of nuclear targets.
Ukraine, the other former Soviet republic that aspires to become a Nato member, has also raised the stakes by offering to co-operate with the US on the missile defence shield. Nato yesterday reaffirmed its offer of eventual membership to both Georgia and Ukraine.
But the Kremlin, and the rest of the world, now know that the democracies of the West do not have the appetite to force through such a decision. They have received loud and clear the message marked on the Russian bombs that fell on Georgia: "This is for Nato."
Additional reporting by Shaun Walker and Kim Sengupta in Tbilisi
The key players
Vladimir Putin
The Russian Prime Minister and former president has eclipsed his successor as president, Dmitry Medvedev, by his handling of the war and involvement in negotiations.
Nicolas Sarkozy
The French President launched a diplomatic mission for a ceasefire on behalf of the European Union while the UN was paralysed.
Bernard Kouchner
The French Foreign Minister did much of the important legwork in the negotiations through his visits to Georgia and Russia, accompanied by Alexander Stubb.
Alexander Stubb
The Finnish Foreign Minister is chairman of the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which led negotiations with Georgia and deployed observers.
Mikheil Saakashvili
The President of Georgia, whose pledge to bring Georgia's breakaway regions under central control brought him into conflict with Moscow.
Yuri Popov
The Russian special envoy heads his country's delegation to a joint commission for the settlement of the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict. The commission has not met formally since last year.
Temuri Yakobashvili
The Georgian special envoy is also Minister of State for the Reintegration of Georgia; his job is to recover the breakaway regions. His ministerial title has proved unpopular with the Russians, who support the separatists.
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Re: Caucasus Crisis
It looks to be like you state. The real bad asses will get away and grow in strength. Goes back to my question- why is the US needling Russia so much? They didnt let them alone even after comprehensively defeating them. Its almost as if it needs them as an enemy. China and the real bad asses dont seem to be enough or wont do. They dont fight the way the US wants them to. They want someone who will slug it out in their way and thats the Russians.Y. Kanan wrote:I was thinking the same thing - look at where this game is going.
US starts new Cold War with Russia, pours high-tech military gear on Georgia, Poland, Ukraine, etc. Pushes NATO right up to the Russian border and works to isolate and punish Russia diplomatically.
Russia starts selling their best high-tech weaponry to Iran, Syria.
US\Isreal arm Chechens with Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stingers, etc - restart Chechnya war.
Russia supplies Iraqi resistance with their best anti-tank weapons and MANPAD's, EFP mines, etc. US troop losses go back up to pre-surge levels or higher, Iraq success story vanishes.
US\Isreal attack Iran, Syria, Hezbollah.
Russia picks a fight with Georgia or Ukraine, champions oppressed Armenians in Georgia or downtrodden Russians in Ukraine, or what have you.
Now you've got the US and Russia fighting wars all over the place while Islamists the world over are celebrating. This sort of scenario is all too likely given the way things are going. I'm dumbfounded by just how badly the neocons have managed to f**k up everything they touch. Not only have they failed miserably against "Islamofascism" but they've also managed to transform natural ally Russia into an enemy. Not just an enemy but a very pissed off one, full of righteous indignation at the blatant aggression and unfairness meted out by the US. They're not turning Russia into a lukewarm enemy - they're transforming those people into some truly passionate haters of the United States.
Of course, the US military-industrial-oil companies are loving it. US foreign policy disasters and endless war are these companies bread and butter. But when will the common US citizen figure this out?
Way back in one of the threads a point was made that christendom would consolidate for the real fight. The pope seems to have made some noises IIRC. Looks like its playing out in just the opposite way.
Re: Caucasus Crisis
The latest sting in the tail! Will our MEA follow suit or will we have to wait for MMS to get his orders from "Bush House"?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 572733.ece
Russia to recognise breakaway region's independence
(Vladimir Popov/AP)
Russian troops in Abkhazia. Georgia claims Russia is deliberately undermining its sovreignty in the territory
Tony Halpin in Tbilisi
US and Poland sign controversial defence deal
Georgia's breakway region of Abkhazia declared today that it would ask Russia to recognise its independence in a move that threatens to trigger a new crisis in the Caucasus.
The Abkhaz parliament said that it would send a formal request for recognition to President Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow tomorrow. Deputy speaker Vyacheslav Tsugba said: "The people of Abkhazia intend to ask the Russian leadership to recognise Abkhazia."
The Speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, said that legislators were ready to support the request and to extend recognition to South Ossetia too. Sergei Mironov told the Interfax news agency: "The Federation Council is ready to recognise the independent status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia if that is what the people of these republics want and also if there is a corresponding decision by the Russian president."
Related Links
Mr Mironov's deputy, Svetlana Orlova, announced an emergency session of the Federation Council for Monday to discuss recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognised internationally as parts of Georgia, although both have been de facto independent since breaking away from the central government in Tbilisi in vicious wars during the early 1990s.
Abkhazia wants independence and South Ossetians want to reunite with their ethnic kin inside Russia in North Ossetia.
Moscow has funded both for years and distributed Russian passports to their residents, justifying its intervention in South Ossetia last week by the need to protect Russian citizens.
Mr Medvedev has already pledged to "make the decision which unambiguously supports the will of these two Caucasus peoples". But any Kremlin move to recognise the breakaway regions would trigger condemnation in the United States and Europe, which have repeatedly insisted on respect for Georgia's territorial integity.
It would almost certainly lead to a fresh confrontation, as President Mikheil Saakashvili appeals for international aid to prevent Russia annexing Georgian land. Nato declared its support for "Georgia’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity" at yesterday's emergency meeting of foreign ministers.
But President Medvedev and his mentor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, will point to the precedent established in Kosovo, despite continuing Kremlin opposition to its independence from Russia's ally Serbia. Mr Putin has already warned the West that Kosovo would set an example for separatists in the countries of the former Soviet Union.
Temur Yakobashvili, Georgia's Minister for Reintegration, sought to play down the development, saying: "It's the police who must deal with people like the leaders of separatists in Abkhazia, not me."
Mr Saakashvili has long argued that any declaration of independence by Abkhazia is meaningless because at least 200,000 ethnic Georgians were expelled from the region after the war 16 years ago and remain refugees. He has insisted that they be allowed to return home, a move rejected by the separatists who argue that the Abkhaz would be a minority in their own homeland.
Thousands of Georgians have fled or been driven from their homes in South Ossetia since the conflict broke out last week. Aid agencies estimate that more than 100,000 people have been displaced by the fighting and Russian occupation of the Georgian city of Gori.
Russian forces continued to man checkpoints on the main road out of Gori today, the nearest just 25 miles from Georgia's capital Tbilisi. Foreign Secretary David Miliband, visiting Tbilisi, accused Russia of "not living up to its word" in pledging to withdraw troops.
Mr Medvedev has now said that all but 500 soldiers would be pulled out of Georgia by Friday, though Russia has insisted that it will continue to patrol a buffer zone of Georgian territory seven kilometres beyond the border of South Ossetia.
The deputy head of general staff, Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, told reporters in Moscow that 64 Russian soldiers had died and 323 had been wounded in the fighting with Georgia. Russia had previously declared that it lost 74 soldiers, with 170 wounded.
Abkhazia stretches along 137 miles of stunning Black Sea coastline as the western fragment of Georgia's border with Russia, backing onto the Caucasus mountains in a total area of just over 3,000 square miles. The Russian ruble, not the Georgian Lari, already circulates there and many Abkhazians stream across the border each day to seek work on construction projects in the nearby resort of Sochi, which will host the 2014 Winter Olympics.
Abkhazia was a Russian protectorate from 1810 until the Red Army incorporated the Caucasus into the Soviet Union after the Bolshevik revolution. Joseph Stalin merged Abkhazia into Georgia in 1931, although it enjoyed a degree of autonomy within the unified Soviet republic.
When Georgia declared independence in 1991 as the Soviet Union was collapsing, Abkhazia sought to break free from Georgia to establish its own state. Georgian forces were driven out, but the region has remained unrecognised since a ceasefire in 1993.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 572733.ece
Russia to recognise breakaway region's independence
(Vladimir Popov/AP)
Russian troops in Abkhazia. Georgia claims Russia is deliberately undermining its sovreignty in the territory
Tony Halpin in Tbilisi
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Georgia's breakway region of Abkhazia declared today that it would ask Russia to recognise its independence in a move that threatens to trigger a new crisis in the Caucasus.
The Abkhaz parliament said that it would send a formal request for recognition to President Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow tomorrow. Deputy speaker Vyacheslav Tsugba said: "The people of Abkhazia intend to ask the Russian leadership to recognise Abkhazia."
The Speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, said that legislators were ready to support the request and to extend recognition to South Ossetia too. Sergei Mironov told the Interfax news agency: "The Federation Council is ready to recognise the independent status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia if that is what the people of these republics want and also if there is a corresponding decision by the Russian president."
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Mr Mironov's deputy, Svetlana Orlova, announced an emergency session of the Federation Council for Monday to discuss recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.
Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognised internationally as parts of Georgia, although both have been de facto independent since breaking away from the central government in Tbilisi in vicious wars during the early 1990s.
Abkhazia wants independence and South Ossetians want to reunite with their ethnic kin inside Russia in North Ossetia.
Moscow has funded both for years and distributed Russian passports to their residents, justifying its intervention in South Ossetia last week by the need to protect Russian citizens.
Mr Medvedev has already pledged to "make the decision which unambiguously supports the will of these two Caucasus peoples". But any Kremlin move to recognise the breakaway regions would trigger condemnation in the United States and Europe, which have repeatedly insisted on respect for Georgia's territorial integity.
It would almost certainly lead to a fresh confrontation, as President Mikheil Saakashvili appeals for international aid to prevent Russia annexing Georgian land. Nato declared its support for "Georgia’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity" at yesterday's emergency meeting of foreign ministers.
But President Medvedev and his mentor, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, will point to the precedent established in Kosovo, despite continuing Kremlin opposition to its independence from Russia's ally Serbia. Mr Putin has already warned the West that Kosovo would set an example for separatists in the countries of the former Soviet Union.
Temur Yakobashvili, Georgia's Minister for Reintegration, sought to play down the development, saying: "It's the police who must deal with people like the leaders of separatists in Abkhazia, not me."
Mr Saakashvili has long argued that any declaration of independence by Abkhazia is meaningless because at least 200,000 ethnic Georgians were expelled from the region after the war 16 years ago and remain refugees. He has insisted that they be allowed to return home, a move rejected by the separatists who argue that the Abkhaz would be a minority in their own homeland.
Thousands of Georgians have fled or been driven from their homes in South Ossetia since the conflict broke out last week. Aid agencies estimate that more than 100,000 people have been displaced by the fighting and Russian occupation of the Georgian city of Gori.
Russian forces continued to man checkpoints on the main road out of Gori today, the nearest just 25 miles from Georgia's capital Tbilisi. Foreign Secretary David Miliband, visiting Tbilisi, accused Russia of "not living up to its word" in pledging to withdraw troops.
Mr Medvedev has now said that all but 500 soldiers would be pulled out of Georgia by Friday, though Russia has insisted that it will continue to patrol a buffer zone of Georgian territory seven kilometres beyond the border of South Ossetia.
The deputy head of general staff, Colonel General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, told reporters in Moscow that 64 Russian soldiers had died and 323 had been wounded in the fighting with Georgia. Russia had previously declared that it lost 74 soldiers, with 170 wounded.
Abkhazia stretches along 137 miles of stunning Black Sea coastline as the western fragment of Georgia's border with Russia, backing onto the Caucasus mountains in a total area of just over 3,000 square miles. The Russian ruble, not the Georgian Lari, already circulates there and many Abkhazians stream across the border each day to seek work on construction projects in the nearby resort of Sochi, which will host the 2014 Winter Olympics.
Abkhazia was a Russian protectorate from 1810 until the Red Army incorporated the Caucasus into the Soviet Union after the Bolshevik revolution. Joseph Stalin merged Abkhazia into Georgia in 1931, although it enjoyed a degree of autonomy within the unified Soviet republic.
When Georgia declared independence in 1991 as the Soviet Union was collapsing, Abkhazia sought to break free from Georgia to establish its own state. Georgian forces were driven out, but the region has remained unrecognised since a ceasefire in 1993.