Caucasus Crisis

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 20 Aug 2008 18:25

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01755.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4871368.stm

On Schroeder's job.

He is right - it is dreamers that talk of energy independent for Western Europe from Russia - but thankfully the rulers in Europe are not all working for Gazprom, and they are dreaming big. Germany is already a leader in solar, despite bad weather, and it is rethinking the anti-nuclear policy. Other European nations are looking at nuclear power in big way, swallowing a lot of their earlier anti-nuclear big talk.. It will take decade or more, but you have to start dreaming first.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 20 Aug 2008 18:45

India should not side with US, as the troubled days are ahead in our neighborhood. We don't want troubles to spill over in our subcontinent. Good relations with neighbors will help India, but India can co-operate with US where it can gain economically / technologically.

IMHO, India should plan carefully. Entering this side or that side may not help much unless it ends up on the victor's side.

Arming all my enemy's enemies with advanced weaponry and nuke bums is not going to happen. The worst outcome will be for Iran or Syria to sneak a couple of these to the Lashkars and we know where they will end up. And Russia must not risk such an eventuality in the process of standing up to the west. At the most Russia should ask for permanent bases in Iran, Syria, Cuba, Venezuela and so on and deploy its nuclear forces there.

We already established that Russia’s permanent interests are in congruence with Europe’s. A prudent approach at this point for Russia would be to stand firm in Georgia and Ukraine while giving long rope for France and Germany in EU to mediate on its behalf. Perhaps it should support America/Israel’s plans on Iran and Syria. It is a fair price to pay for Russia to save its ultimate interests and win a better and bigger friend, the west.

For India, the strategic rival is China. Not because china can invade India. But it will hurt Indian interests perpetually by supporting vassal states such as BDland, Pakiland, Srilanka and Maldives. So it is in India’s interest to understand and eliminate this threat scenario. The first step in this direction should be to win over POK, and make friendship treaties with Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Burma

One thing India can definitely afford at this point and should do immediately is to offer ~$1B/yr friendship grants to each of these nations for the next 10 years and build universities, hospitals, and infrastructure in those countries besides selected military solutions. For example India can offer 20 LCAs, 20 LAHs, and 100 Arjuns for each of those countries (in the next 5 years) on the condition that these air forces will augment IAF in times of war, something similar to NATO.

raji · Post by **raji** » 20 Aug 2008 18:49

Who cares about the Caucasus ? India has no leverage there............even if Russia re-emerges as a power, the man who is architecting that comeback (Putin) has nothing but contempt for India.........India has nothing to gain by it.......discussing Caucasus is nothin but intellectual masturbation as far as Indians are concerned.......

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 20 Aug 2008 19:03

Who cares about the Caucasus ? India has no leverage there............

If you have nothing to say, then not saying anything makes you wiser than others.
Take a hint from Dr. Tim, he said nothing so far.

"wise men conceal their ignorance"

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 20 Aug 2008 19:05

raji wrote:Who cares about the Caucasus ? India has no leverage there............even if Russia re-emerges as a power, the man who is architecting that comeback (Putin) has nothing but contempt for India.........India has nothing to gain by it.......discussing Caucasus is nothin but intellectual masturbation as far as Indians are concerned.......

Raji.. i think it is the otherway around...

None of us know whether Putin is really anti-Indian or not.

It is a fact that Russia demanded renegotiations on many of our military deals in the recent past. I would equally blame Indian negotiators for this charade. If someone offers to a private jet for $0 and seeks a $100k to refurnish it, what would you think? The Indian side should have seen it coming. And must have included necessary contractual controls and hedges accordingly.

The current Indian administration has spent the past five years pursuing one and only one international deal. The nuke deal. We have seen the articles about the additional three phases of Kundankulam project and Russia’s offers etc. Perhaps Russia/Putin realized our focus and made sure that they got the premium for standing by for 5 years. Without the nuke deal, the IAF preference for MRCA would mostly be a Russian fighter. That is a $10B deal and 5 years of waiting results in approximately $3-4B value. That is the money value of time (reversing the original equation).

Forget about being a global power, even if India aspires to be a regional power, Caucasus must appear on its strategic radar in bold fonts. See the map and you will understand what I am talking about.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 20 Aug 2008 19:09

India is involved. Directly and indirectly. Directly if Russians ask us to take sides as 'repayment' of past assistance or worse, advance payments for future unknown favors. Indirectly if by silence or complicity we allow map-redrawings and 'self determination' to become established principles and precedents. Kosovo was bad enough and gave enough heart-burns in India. If we repeat the Non-aligned farce of the earlier Cold war and selectively condemn the west for exactly same behaviour as we congratulate the russians for, let us also be prepared to be again on the losing side.

Since none of us are Prime Minisiters or global leaders, at least not openly

all forum activity is intellectual anyway.

raji · Post by **raji** » 20 Aug 2008 19:16

RamaY wrote:
raji wrote:Who cares about the Caucasus ? India has no leverage there............even if Russia re-emerges as a power, the man who is architecting that comeback (Putin) has nothing but contempt for India.........India has nothing to gain by it.......discussing Caucasus is nothin but intellectual masturbation as far as Indians are concerned.......
Raji.. i think it is the otherway around...

None of us know whether Putin is really anti-Indian or not.

It is a fact that Russia demanded renegotiations on many of our military deals in the recent past. I would equally blame Indian negotiators for this charade. If someone offers to a private jet for $0 and seeks a $100k to refurnish it, what would you think? The Indian side should have seen it coming. And must have included necessary contractual controls and hedges accordingly.

The current Indian administration has spent the past five years pursuing one and only one international deal. The nuke deal. We have seen the articles about the additional three phases of Kundankulam project and Russia’s offers etc. Perhaps Russia/Putin realized our focus and made sure that they got the premium for standing by for 5 years. Without the nuke deal, the IAF preference for MRCA would mostly be a Russian fighter. That is a $10B deal and 5 years of waiting results in approximately $3-4B value. That is the money value of time (reversing the original equation).

Forget about being a global power, even if India aspires to be a regional power, Caucasus must appear on its strategic radar in bold fonts. See the map and you will understand what I am talking about.

Point well made and well taken. I respect your assertions. However, in the spirit of a genuine discourse, may I ask you this:

1) No doubt our relations with Russia are important, but what does this particular Caucusus crisis have to do with us ? This crisis has no lessons and no implications for our strategic posturing vis-a-vis Russia or other Central Asian states. What happens in Pak, China, Iran and even Turkey have far more implications for our options in the Central Asian states than Georgia or even Ukraine.......

2) One can glean the mindset of a person from small signs......I remember reading about Putin bringing his own Vodka and washing the silverware supplied by Ashoka Hotel in Delhi with it (he wouldnt even trust Indian vodka to wash the silverware with)........before he would use the silverware.......and all the time he was washing the silverware with his own hands, he was making derogatory and highly insulting comments about Indians........to his subordinates in his suite....

3) It is indisputable that the Russians have cozied upto China big time since Putin came to power, and it is no accident. In fact, I think it is a deliberate policy of Putin to trade India for Chinese favors........and a hidden defacto alliance with the Chinese against the West, which manifests itself all the time in international forums, most recently when they together opposed the West on Iranian sanctions in the security council and an even more recent opposition to sanctions against Mugabe in the security council........I also happen to think that from a Russian perspective, it is a wise policy to jettison India in favor of China........

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 20 Aug 2008 19:22

raji wrote: Point well made and well taken. I respect your assertions. However, in the spirit of a genuine discourse, may I ask you this:

Like John Snow saar said it...

think sometime and you will get the answers yourself...

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 20 Aug 2008 20:18

the Bush administration continues to rush headlong towards humiliating and threatening the Russians, and its not clear that this has been thought through properly yet. is this the last chapter in the neocon playbook?

a chankiyan mind might think that the US and Ru's are fed up of pampering the islamists and want to get back to business as usual, relegate the beards to irrelevance, unless the GOAT is already won and we haven't been told yet...

krish.pf · Post by **krish.pf** » 20 Aug 2008 21:00

I've been watching the last weeks developments on Caucasus. Very dangerous indeed.. But NATO couldn't do much anyway. Here are some regions of the world in which NATO should stay away from and this is certainly one of it.
I'm also very amazed on the amount of hypocrisy from NATO. Just goes to show you that every one act on their personal interests and not on High Morals.

Directly if Russians ask us to take sides as 'repayment' of past assistance

I wouldn't be surprised.. but it's mostly the U.S which does this more often.

f we repeat the Non-aligned farce of the earlier Cold war and selectively condemn the west

We condemned the Soviet's actions in Czechoslovakia/Poland IIRC.

1) No doubt our relations with Russia are important, but what does this particular Caucusus crisis have to do with us ? This crisis has no lessons and no implications for our strategic posturing vis-a-vis Russia or other Central Asian states. What happens in Pak, China, Iran and even Turkey have far more implications for our options in the Central Asian states than Georgia or even Ukraine.......

First there is the military aspect. The hardware used by both sides are Russian. And it seems SA-11 was combat proven.
Second is the indirect political effect which could be caused in the future as a result of this. For example China could be supporting Russia's stand on the break away region's independence and this would affect India's relations with the Russians. With China doing it it would be in India's interests if India does it too.
Third is the U.S' response. This goes to reinforce the proof that U.S cannot be trusted as an ally.
Fourth, India should have ICBM's to get it's own respect. the only way the hypocritical west is going to take India seriously is when we have Nuke Tipped ICBMs targeting their cities. But with our great and dear leader MMS virtually sleeping with the U.S and signing an important deal which will reduce our sovereignty, I don't know if we can ever build an ICBM.. not to mention upgrading our Nukes with a better design.

One can glean the mindset of a person from small signs......I remember reading about Putin bringing his own Vodka and washing the silverware supplied by Ashoka Hotel in Delhi with it (he wouldnt even trust Indian vodka to wash the silverware with)........before he would use the silverware.......and all the time he was washing the silverware with his own hands, he was making derogatory and highly insulting comments about Indians........to his subordinates in his suite....

The president washing his own plates and insulting Indians? Have you got any source for this?

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 20 Aug 2008 21:10

RamaY wrote: Forget about being a global power, even if India aspires to be a regional power, Caucasus must appear on its strategic radar in bold fonts. See the map and you will understand what I am talking about.

Very important point. Rama, thanks for highlighting this aspect. Indians are notorious in not using the map to get even a basic glimpse of how things are aligned. Literature will be studied with maps that are simply of local significance and whole lot of details will be gleamed. But will fail to see the forest completely.
In fact, I would recommend as STEP 0 for any aspiration about being any sort of power is to take a look at the globe. Yes not just the map with Mercator projections (although it is useful), which provides disjointed representations. One has to look at globe which provides right proportions and provide context on the whole. This alone will help set the priorities and provide significance of what is India's near abroad and what needs to be done.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 20 Aug 2008 21:14

We condemned the Soviet's actions in Czechoslovakia/Poland IIRC.

India deplored the intervention and overthrow of Dubcheck Govt in Czechoslovakia, in Poland we did not make any statement as Gen Jaruzalski ( sp?) took over after the strikes by Solidarity (leader Lech Walesa).

mayurav · Post by **mayurav** » 20 Aug 2008 21:15

JwalaMukhi wrote: In fact, I would recommend as STEP 0 for any aspiration about being any sort of power is to take a look at the globe.

Excellent point. I use google earth.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Aug 2008 21:20

On India Forum a thread was created for important maps. Maybe some of us should create an atlas of important maps from Indian prespective?

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 20 Aug 2008 21:21

Suppiah wrote:Karan, I agree. For Russia to build a military-economic eco system around itself, it should first work on its image in its own backyard. Its actions in Georgia, and vulgar threats to Poland, to put it mildly, dont help. Its image is already bad and you have its neighbours falling over each other courting the west.

There is nothing wrong with Russia's image at least to those who have real grasp of world politics. I never said there was an issue with Russia's image. Russia's misfortune is similar to India's in a regard that both have Paki like neighbors. There is not much a country can do if it has Paki like neighbors.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 20 Aug 2008 21:23

In telugu there is saying
"Chaduvu rani vadu vinta pasuvu" which can be extended as
"Chaduvu vachhi charitra teliniyani vadu pamarudu"
meaning
'Illiterate citizen is a strange animal"

the second one is my extension of the first
'Literate but illiterate in history is a savage'

"A nation is preserved or destroyed by knowledge or ignorance of world history by its people." Spinster

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Aug 2008 21:30

This map posted on page 12 of this thread is interesting as it shows the earlier history of the region.

Map of Clochis and Iberia

One notices that Ossetia was called Sarmatia. If anyone cares the Sarmatians were excellent horsemen and were recruited into Roman Legions and posted in far of places like England. The Sarmatians were captured/ensalved as youngsters and brought up in the Roman Legions like proto-Jannissaries.

When Rome collapsed due to attacks, the Sarmatians bands were left in England and maintained law and order. In fact they are the basis of the legends of the Arthurian Knights of the Round Table. The latest version of King Arthur with Keira Knightley as Queen Guinivere is based on this truth.

Shows how the Caucasus is related and important even when the links are not explict.

Back to regular programming.

krish.pf · Post by **krish.pf** » 20 Aug 2008 21:34

India deplored the intervention and overthrow of Dubcheck Govt in Czechoslovakia, in Poland we did not make any statement as Gen Jaruzalski ( sp?) took over after the strikes by Solidarity (leader Lech Walesa).

Ah.. fine diplomatic words. Well atleast we did something. I also remember some statements regarding the Hungarian Revolution which were not toeing the line of the Soviets.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 20 Aug 2008 21:36

ramana wrote:On India Forum a thread was created for important maps. Maybe some of us should create an atlas of important maps from Indian prespective?

Ramanaji, superb idea. Agree, should have a one stop source, either as a thread or as a link on the BRF providing summary (encyclopedic style) of various regions of the globe as seen from Indian Interests. Willing to contribute as time permits.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 20 Aug 2008 21:37

John Snow wrote:

'Illiterate citizen is a strange animal"

the second one is my extension of the first
'Literate but illiterate in history is a savage'

"A nation is preserved or destroyed by knowledge or ignorance of world history by its people." Spinster

Good word
They are the most likely to talk about conspiracy

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 21 Aug 2008 00:28

Things are getting interesting.

Norway: Russia to cut all military ties with NATO 33 minutes ago

Norway's Defense Ministry says Russia has informed it that it plans to cut all military ties with NATO.

Ministry spokeswoman Heidi Langvik-Hansen says the country's embassy received a telephone call from Russia's Defense Ministry on Wednesday, saying Moscow plans "to freeze all military cooperation with NATO and allied countries."

Norway was told in the telephone call a written note about this would be sent out shortly.

Russian officials were not immediately available to confirm the information and officials at NATO headquarters said they have not been informed of any such moves.

NATO foreign ministers Tuesday suspended formal contacts with Russia as punishment for sending troops into Georgia.

India can scrap the 123-deal, and approach RU to provide Uranium dierectly.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 21 Aug 2008 04:24

The most worried man must be Karzai.

The most elated man is John Mcain.

The most puzzled man Barak Obama.

The most intrigued woman Hillary clinton.

The most satisfied at the turn of events CIA.

The most opportunity knocks on PRC.

The most pre occupied and not capitalizing are our babus with chai pani and samosa discussions.

The most insulted man is Mushy and is indeed proven to be a condom collector of unkils GUBO.

( Bush declined to take repeated calls of mushy crying the plastic is not coming out of my musharough)

All due to Georgian presidents adventure and playing to script handed over by his masters.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Aug 2008 04:35

John Snow gaaru... god bless you!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Aug 2008 05:01

Which side the Chinesse Camel sit?
Will they stand by Russia or Join WEST ? They loose either way. Babus need to think like Baniyas and exploit the oppertunity to extract maxmum out these 3 parties.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 21 Aug 2008 05:30

Prem wrote:Which side the Chinesse Camel sit?
Will they stand by Russia or Join WEST ? They loose either way. Babus need to think like Baniyas and exploit the oppertunity to extract maxmum out these 3 parties.

IMO, they will sit tight and join the winner at the tail end. Before that they will create a pretext (are you listening India?) to enter the winning team...

Ortmann · Post by **Ortmann** » 21 Aug 2008 05:46

Suppiah wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01755.html
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4871368.stm

On Schroeder's job.

He is right - it is dreamers that talk of energy independent for Western Europe from Russia - but thankfully the rulers in Europe are not all working for Gazprom, and they are dreaming big. Germany is already a leader in solar, despite bad weather, and it is rethinking the anti-nuclear policy. Other European nations are looking at nuclear power in big way, swallowing a lot of their earlier anti-nuclear big talk.. It will take decade or more, but you have to start dreaming first.

The situation in Germany is like this:

crude oil: fuel, basic chemicals

natural gas: heating, cooking, few basic chemicals, peak demand electricity production (not base demand)

charcoal: Imported, important part of electricity & industrial heat production

brown coal: own resources, important part of electricity & industrial heat production

nuclear power: important part of electricity & industrial heat production (but actually just a couple per cent)

solar: important for distributed electricity in small applications, small part of household warm water supply, marginal contribution to electricity production

water power: fully exploited, several percent of constant electricity production, few reservoirs pump water up to store energy for peak demand times

wind power: big deal, several per cent of electricity production (not constant or controllable), offshore wind power might become an even bigger deal soon

biofuels: rapeseed and biodiesel, unsustainable, insufficient agricultural areas available for further exploration, but several per cent of automotive fuel (5% mixed iirc) and a large share of truck diesel fuels are biofuels

Liquid natural gas (LNG) facilities are planned for Wilhelmshafen harbour and might be realized (for import of natural gas from overseas by ship) as alternative to pipelines

Nuclear energy technology has made advances and inherently stable nuclear power plants are attractive, but we have at this time a coalition that does not include the greens and still don't cancel the old plan to get existing powerplants out of service and not build any new ones. Future coalitions on federal level will likely include the greens, which pretty much excludes the possibility of new nuclear powerplants in the next ten to 15 years.

By the way; coal liquidification (as done in South Africa and in Germany during WW2 on large scale) is economically advantageous at oil prices of about 40-60 USD/barrel. Our own charcoal reserves are expensive, but the whole charcoal liquidification technology pretty much ensures that prices as today cannot be sustained over decades. The same applies to exploitation of dependency on Russian oil (the Russians are btw dependent on oil revenues, it's no one-sided problem).
Substitutes do exist.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 21 Aug 2008 07:03

IIRC Germany/Italy's dependency is to the tune of 40% on Russian imports. That explains their cautious reaction to Georgian events, in fact they should be congratulated even for saying so much. In this globalised era it is not a question of bringing it to 0% but to bring to a level where Europe can take a stand on issues without worrying about asking voters to spend the winter in freezing homes. They were already working on it, both for Russian reasons and global warming plus ME reasons, now Russia has given them a huge kick it in the rearside to get it going faster.

That in of itself is a major failure for the Ruskies unless they do some serious damage control in coming months. Any amount of Georgian territory they may capture will not be worth it. China can be a buyer but on much worse terms.

Have you noticed one strange thing - the entire leftist media goes bonkers over ex-oilmen Cheney and Bush and starts spinning all kinds of conspiracy theories using that excuse. But it has absolutely no problem to have one running Russia - or have they silently accepted that Medeyev is just a puppet and Putin is the one holding the strings?

Talking of puppets on strings, Schroeder's unsolicited and over zealous endorsement of Putin-Medeyev combo in that interview should have raised eyebrows and lead to questions even before the intelligent Spiegel reporter talked about his Gazprom job.

Karan Dixit · Post by **Karan Dixit** » 21 Aug 2008 10:18

Prem wrote:Which side the Chinesse Camel sit?
Will they stand by Russia or Join WEST ? They loose either way. Babus need to think like Baniyas and exploit the oppertunity to extract maxmum out these 3 parties.

China will sit on its own side. China will extract maximum benefits from both sides particularly from USA. As the crisis between USA and Russia deepens, we will see vigorous courting of China by USA.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 21 Aug 2008 11:00

What about the Islamists, the Saudis, the Pakis etc... They are the ones who gain the most in a USA -West spat with Russia. I hope the US does not turn a blind eye and aid thier activities resulting in anther horrible 9/11.

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 21 Aug 2008 11:22

After Georgia, it's Ukraine's turn to fear Russia

The former Republic of the Soviet Union has reason to worry about Moscow flexing its muscles and showing who is the boss, writes Olga Bondaruk

Tensions flared on Tuesday between Kiev and Moscow over Russia's invasion of neighbouring Georgia amid fears that Moscow might next set its sights on Ukraine, another ex-Soviet Republic whose Government is seeking NATO membership. The two countries sparred over Russia's use of a naval base in the port of Sevastopol that Moscow is renting from Ukraine.

The Kremlin has made it clear that it wants the Russian ships to remain in Sevastopol even when the current lease agreement expires in 2017. But Ukraine's pro-Western President Victor Yushchenko has sided with Georgia and moved last week to restrict the movement of Russian ships in the port, saying the vessels' movements were subject to Kiev's approval.

Officials in Moscow say Ukraine has no control over Russian ships under the current lease agreement. They say Russian ships do not need permission to enter the port and have sounded warning notes to Kiev.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov challenged the Kiev-imposed restrictions. The state-controlled ITAR-Tass news agency quoted him as saying the current lease agreement says "nothing about us needing to explain to someone why, where to and for how long the Black Fleet ships are leaving their walls." Ukraine's Defence Ministry said that it was considering Russia's request to allow four Russian ships to enter Sevastopol. Ukrainian media have reported that the ships had taken part in the fighting in Georgia.

Russia moved into Georgia earlier this month after Tbilisi tried to take the rebel province of South Ossetia by force. Despite a cease-fire agreement that promises a Russian withdrawal, Russian troops remain in control of large chunks of the small Caucasus nation.

Russia's critics say the conflict heralds a new, worrying era in which an increasingly assertive Kremlin has shown itself ready to resort to military force outside its borders in pursuing its goals. Many fear that the Kremlin's fierce opposition to Ukraine's drive to join NATO and Moscow's desire to regain control of the palm-lined Black Sea Crimea peninsula and its historic Russian naval base may put Ukraine at a risk of a military conflict with its giant neighbour. Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov has warned Ukraine that it still isn't too late to return "what doesn't belong to it." Ukraine is also strategically important to Russia because its pipelines carry Russian oil and gas westward. With its huge Russian-speaking population in its east and south, it also has immense emotional resonance for Russians.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister, Volodymyr Ohryzko, sought to cool tensions, saying Kiev wouldn't physically prevent Russian ships from entering and leaving the naval base. "Without a doubt, there won't be any mine fences or military collisions; one shouldn't even talk about that," Mr Ohryzko said in Kiev.

Ukrainian officials criticised Russia and sided squarely with Georgia, but acknowledged that Moscow's quick military victory exposed their nation's own vulnerability. Deputy head of the Presidential Secretariat Andriy Honcharuk said the events in Georgia showed Ukraine has no alternative but to further integrate with the West.

"The course of Ukraine's foreign policy was formed long ago -- integration with European and Euro-Atlantic institutions," Honcharuk said last week. "The situation in the Caucasus once again shows that there is no alternative to this course for the state and society."

As Russian troops showed reluctance to withdraw from Georgia, many Ukrainians worried about their country's future.

http://www.dailypioneer.com/indexn12.as ... nter_img=4

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Aug 2008 12:18

A hard and perhaps cruel fact of life to some who favour a close embrace with the west/US in particular,is that India cannot afford to antagonise Russia.Having said that,there is no need at all for us to do so as Russia is still the major supplier of advanced arms and weaponry to the armed forces.To name just a few,the much praised SU-30MKIs,now provocatively taking part in the US "Red Flag" (formerly anti-Soviet air war exercises),the Brahmos missile and the soon to be in IN clours Akula-2 nuclear sub are the most potent and visible symbols of Indo-Russian cooperation and friendship.Add to that the Russian civilian nuclear reactors coming up in TNadu and you get an excellent picture of an almost perfect strategic partnership.

What China is getting from Russia is technology that in key areas is below that given to India.In fact,the Russians are very sore at China's reverse engineering of Russian technology,which has made them almost self reliant in key spheres of defence production for which China is not paying a rouble in return.Our future areas of cooperation with Russia are for the 5th-gen fighter,the Future MBT,sub technology,etc.

Consider the facts of the US stance in S.ASia.Pak gets billions upon billions of aid for playing both sides in the so-called "war on terror".While US/NATO troops are being savaged in Afghanistan,thanks to the Taliban/ISI efforts,Pak gets more F-16s,AMRAAMs,P-3 Orions and more hardware and aid in the pipeline.India gets a "left-handed" N-deal if ever there was one,in which we have to sacrifice the sovereignity of 65% of our nuclear reactors to permanent foreign inspection and effective control,as all future fuel will come from abroad.We will never in future be able to test our nuclear warheads out of fear of sanctions,which is absoultely neccessary in the future for us to maintain and perfect our strategic deterrent,never be able to sell or export a "nuclear" nut or bolt to anyone in the world,thus at one stroke,sacrificing our hard earned indifenous nuclear technology for which the country has paid an enormpous price,and forever be harrassed to sign the CTBT and chained to any other restrictive nuclear treaty that the N-club decide to enforce upon the globe! In addition,we are commanded by the US as to slant our foreign policy in tune with the US,with no cooperation with those states like Iran with whom we have had age old ties,whom the US consider as their enemies.
As for buying US weaponry,the US will see to it that Indian gets no weapon systems that give us a clear advantage against Pak.It would like both states to be servile satellites and the leaders of both abject flunkeys.In India they have one excellent butler-cum-doorman and in Pak they now have to find a replacement for dear old Mushy.

Finally,when it come to talking,threatening ,pushing and shoving,from the recent Georgian crisis,it is quite clear who talks and who walks.Russia can be depended upon in a crisis,the US cannot even stand by its friends and the shoddy manner in which it refused Ge.Musharraf sanctuary in the US,as it did the Shah,Marcos,Pinochet,etc., speaks for itself.Uncle Sam's "friends" are to be used like condoms and discarded after the screwing is over.

krish.pf · Post by **krish.pf** » 21 Aug 2008 13:02

Looks like things have become interesting once again with Russia cutting defence ties with NATO.

----

I also agree that India should not fall into the trap of U.S weapons.. (MRCA). All those AESA radars and AMRAAMs will be tempting but by buying those weapons we will lose part of our sovereignty. In order for the world to take notice of India we should build ICBMs and refine our Nuke designs. If we buy those weapons then we will never build ICBMs and even think about a Pokhran-3. Our long term vision is to see India as a power in Global stage and for that we need STRATEGIC weapons, Not AESA radars.

I hope we buy Rafale or Mig-35 in our MRCA.

I also hope the nuke deal does not materialize.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 21 Aug 2008 16:03

I think it is not realistic to presume that one superpower is a nice and reliable friend and another is not. Being a superpower means you have to do dirty things, both to friends and to rivals. It is like rising to top in a company - you cant get there without a fair share of back-stabbing, screwing around and so on. Once you get there you stay there by doing more of those until someone beats you at your own game.

Heck, even a super power wannabe like India, with cities full of slums and villages full of people scrapping by for a living at less than $1 a day, did so many things - just ask our neighbours. Perhaps there is a reason we are not so popular out there. Blockading Nepal, arming LTTE against Lanka, then invading them (which if reports in SL press are correct, led to the strange situation of Premadasa arming the LTTE to get rid of IPKF, ironically both Rajiv and Premadasa getting killed by the same snake they once fed milk.) God only kinows what our politicians and megalomaniac dynasties will do if we get stronger and wealthier!

So it is clear - everything comes at a cost and the cost is always paid in different ways - slavery, dependence etc. No one gives it away for nothing.

The deep friendship with Soviets was for ideological rivalry reasons. Yet we had to be their slaves and call it non-alignment. We condemned the US shooting of Iran civil jetliner but kept quiet when Russians did the same thing with KAL jet. Just to give one example. Had we fooled around with the Americans, I doubt if the Soviets would have remained reliable arms suppliers.

Talking of arms, practically every recent deal has run into difficulties with Russians demanding the roof and our military is not at all happy about the situation. And it is always known that we buy Russian because they are cheap though inferior and because earlier Americans would not supply.

IMHO it is best to pursue the policy of long-term indigenous sources for arms, energy and key strategic items as far as possible, even if that involves sub-optimal choices and keep everyone at safe distance and be friends. IE true non-alignment, practiced intelligently.

Furthermore the so-called screwing around that the Americans do is not with the core 'family'. But with allies of convenience. Mushy is just one. While only white states of Western Europe / OZ etc., are in that core and we cant get there even if we want to perhaps..

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Aug 2008 16:33

Russia military not quitting Georgia

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 04443.html

AP and Reuters
Thursday, 21 August 2008

Russia's military has no plans to leave Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia or the buffer zone around it, a senior Russian military official said today.

"We are not planning to leave anywhere...," Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the Russian military's General Staff, told a news conference, when asked if the Russian military would remain in South Ossetia and the surrounding zone.

Meanwhile, Russian forces today took up positions at the entrance to Georgia's main Black Sea port city, excavating trenches and setting up mortars facing the city despite Russia's promise to pull back troops from territory deep inside Georgia.

Several armored personnel carriers and troop trucks blocked the bridge that is the only land entrance to Poti and another group of APCs and trucks were positioned in a nearby wooded area.

Although Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has promised that his forces would pull back by tomorrow, Russian troops appear to be settling in for a long presence, raising concern about whether Moscow is aiming for a lengthy and intimidating occupation of its small, pro-Western neighbor.

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili told The Associated Press that Russia was thinning out its presence in some occupied towns but was seizing other strategic spots. He called the Russian moves "some kind of deception game."

"(The Russians) are making fun of the world," he declared.

An EU-sponsored cease-fire says both Russian and Georgian forces must move back to positions they held before fighting broke out Aug. 7 in Georgia's separatist republic of South Ossetia, which has close ties to Russia. The agreement also says Russian forces can work in a so-called "security zone" that extends 4.3 miles into Georgia from South Ossetia.

Poti, however, is at least 95 miles west of the nearest point in South Ossetia. It's also Georgia's key oil port.

Russian tanks, trucks and troops meanwhile continued to hold positions around the strategically key city of Gori and in Igoeti, about 30 miles west of the Georgian capital Tbilisi.

The warfare in a nation straining to escape Moscow's influence has sent tensions between Moscow and the West to some of their highest levels since the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her Polish counterpart signed a deal to build an American missile defense base in Poland. Last week, a top Russian general warned Poland was risking an attack, possibly a nuclear one, by developing the base.

"It's 2008, and the United States has a ... firm treaty guarantee to defend Poland's territory as if it was the territory of the United States," Rice said. "So it's probably not wise to throw these threats around."

A spokeswoman for Norway's defense ministry said Russia had told its embassy that Moscow plans to "freeze all military cooperation" with NATO and its allies. Officials at NATO headquarters said they had not been informed of such a move.

South Ossetia is recognized internationally as part of Georgia, but Russia says the future of the province is up to provincial leaders.

In a sign Russia plans to solidify its control of South Ossetia, Col. Gen. Anatoly Nogovitsyn said Russia would build 18 checkpoints in the security cordon around the province, with 270 soldiers manning front-line posts.

The parliament of another pro-Russia separatist region, Abkhazia, urged Russia yesterday to recognize its independence. Fighting flared in both regions before Georgia and Russia agreed to a cease-fire.

Western leaders have stressed that Georgia must retain its current borders.

"South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia," US President George W. Bush declared Wednesday in Florida.

In Gori, no Russian troops or heavy weaponry could be seen Wednesday evening, including on the bridges and main access points. Earlier in the day, Russian troops had been strictly limiting access to Gori to residents and turning away foreign journalists.

Shota Abramidze, a 73-year-old retired engineer, said Gori residents wanted the Russians out.

"They've stolen everything. They've bombed everything. This is fascism, that's what this is."

Along the main highway from Gori to Tbilisi, Russian peacekeepers stopped cars and checked documents of passengers. In Gori itself, Russian troops limited access to residents and turned away foreign journalists. In a back alley, dozens of people waited for promised food.

At a military training school in the mountain town of Sachkhere, a Georgian sentry said Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers had shown up the day before and demanded to be let in, leaving only after a 30-minute standoff. He said the Russians vowed to blow up facilities in the village of Osiauri.

Yesterday, Georgia said Russian soldiers destroyed military logistics facilities in Osiauri, but the claim could not immediately be confirmed.

About 80,000 people displaced by the fighting are in more than 600 centers in and around Tbilisi. The United Nations estimates 158,000 people in all fled their homes in the last two weeks — some south to regions around Tbilisi, some north to Russia.

PS:Latest Bushism."S.Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of Georgia..",what about Kosovo and Serrbia?

krish.pf · Post by **krish.pf** » 21 Aug 2008 18:02

Yet we had to be their slaves and call it non-alignment.

Slaves? BS! If we had been slaves then we would have had soviet bases here. The soviets were desperate for a warm water base on the head of the Indian ocean.

I doubt if the Soviets would have remained reliable arms suppliers.

They were aware of our Democratic credentials and a foreign policy which were not toeing the Soviets line, yet they remained a reliable Arms partner. Compared with Pakistan which has been a CENTO partner and yet got embargoed. The Russians' friendship is on a whole different level than the American's can ever be.
But with our recent dear leader's short sightedness I don't know if this friendship will hold for long.

Talking of arms, practically every recent deal has run into difficulties with Russians demanding the roof and our military is not at all happy about the situation. And it is always known that we buy Russian because they are cheap though inferior and because earlier Americans would not supply.

The difficulties which had been resolved although it costed a billion more. On the other hand there is no escaping an U.S Arms Embargo or sanctions.

Fact is the Russians will remain as friends(May be because there is money) even if we don't toe the their line on key decisions, while the Americans will back stab us if we don't. And example of key decisions would be ICBMs, Pokhran-3 and some foreign relations.

I agree that our Armed force should accept our "inferior" indigenous weapons so that our defence capability grows.

BTW, what's your Location? Where are you typing this from?

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Aug 2008 19:25

A great act of humkanity from him!I wish the concert was available live on telly.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 579829.ece

LSO conductor Valery Gergiev to lead defiant South Ossetia concert
(Universal)
Valery Gergiev. Photo: Marco Borggreve for times arts courtesy of universal classics

Chris Smyth

The Principal conductor of the London Symphony Orchestra will lead a defiant performance from the shattered steps of the South Ossetian parliament tonight celebrating the defeat of Georgian forces at the hands of Russian troops.

Valery Gergiev, an ethnic Ossetian who has been an outspoken critic of Georgia's action during the conflict, will conduct the Mariinsky Theatre of St Petersburg in a performance that is expected to feature Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister, as guest of honour.

Mr Gergiev has close personal ties to Mr Putin - they are godfather to each others' children - and in May the Russian Prime Minister awarded the Order for Service to the conductor.

The concert in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvalii is expected to coincide with rallies demanding the recognition of South Ossetia as an independent state, a move confirmed today by the separatist leader Eduard Kokoity.

Moscow says pullback underway as troops dig in
Syria-Russia deal threatens 'Cold War'
Russia to back region's breakaway

The performance would be "a requiem for those who died at the hands of the aggressors, for those who sacrificed their lives defending their homeland from a treacherous attack by Georgia", a South Ossetian spokesman said.

Mr Gergiev, feted as one the world's leading conductors, recently defended Russia's military response to Georgia's action in South Ossetia as the international community condemned it.

"The world should know what is happening. There were a thousand or more South Ossetians were killed at that time," he told the BBC last week. "The arrival of Russian troops saved maybe a thousand or more lives."

He blamed the fighting on the actions of Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvilii. "The President of Georgia had no right to order his army to go and crush and use Grad missiles against peaceful civilians," he said, calling it "the mistake of his life".

"You cannot imagine the scale of this tragedy," he added. He has also said that people in the West "don't understand who bombed Tskhinvali. The city was totally destroyed."

In the aftermath of the Beslan school massacre in North Ossetia in 2004, Mr Gergiev appealed for peace and led emotional memorial concerts for the victims.

Mr Gergiev describes Mr Putin as "my friend", and has praised him for bringing stability to Russia. Mr Putin's support has in turn helped bolster and raise funds for Mr Gergiev's Mariinsky Theatre, which recently opened a new £20 million, 1,100-seater concert hall.

Mr Gergiev was born in Moscow to Ossetian parents and grew up in the town of Vladikavkaz in Russian North Ossetia. He was appointed Artistic Director of the Mariinsky Theatre Opera Company in 1989, at the age of 35, and is principal guest conductor of the Rotterdam Philharmonic Orchestra in addition to his post with the LSO. He was principal guest conductor of the Metropolitan Opera in New York,1997-2002.

Kathryn McDowell, Managing Director of the London Symphony Orchestra commented: "We understand that Valery Gergiev feels passionately about the current situation in South Ossetia and Georgia and are aware that he has in the past created music as an ambassador for peace; we send our good wishes to him for a significant and successful concert."

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 21 Aug 2008 21:42

Fear of new Mid East 'Cold War' as Syria strengthens military alliance with Russia

Kevin O’Flynn in Moscow and James Hider, Middle East Correspondent

Syria raised the prospect yesterday of having Russian missiles on its soil, sparking fears of a new Cold War in the Middle East. President Assad said as he arrived in Moscow to clinch a series of military agreements: “We are ready to co-operate with Russia in any project that can strengthen its security.”

The Syrian leader told Russian newspapers: “I think Russia really has to think of the response it will make when it finds itself closed in a circle.”

Mr Assad said that he would be discussing the deployment of Russian missiles on his territory. The Syrians are also interested in buying Russian weapons.

In return Moscow is expected to propose a revival of its Cold War era naval base at the Syrian port of Tartus, which would give the Russian Navy its first foothold in the Mediterranean for two decades. Damascus and Moscow were close allies during the Cold War but the Kremlin’s influence in the region waned after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yesterday’s rapprochement raised the possibility that Moscow intends to re-create a global anti-Western alliance with former Soviet bloc allies.

Many in Israel fear that the Middle East could once again become a theatre for the two great powers to exert their spheres of influence, militarily and politically. And with Israel and the US providing military backing to Georgia, Russia appears set to respond in kind by supporting Syria.

Already, Israeli observers worry that the chaos in the Caucasus may disrupt gas supplies to Europe and Turkey from the Caspian Sea region, creating a greater energy reliance on Iran and its vast reserves. The crisis could in turn allow Tehran to exploit splits in the international community and use Russia as a backer to advance its nuclear programme. Russia has wooed Syria in recent years, as it has tried to increase its influence in the Middle East and increase arms sales.

Syria and Israel recently confirmed they had been holding indirect talks to reach a peace deal after decades of hostility. Part of Syria’s motivation was to break the international isolation it has suffered for its strategic alliance with Tehran. A closer alliance with a resurgent Russia could afford Mr Assad a way out of any binding commitment. Some Israeli analysts even fear that it could encourage Syria to try to take back the Golan Heights, captured by Israel in 1967, by force.

The Georgia conflict sparked a mocking speech with Cold War rhetoric by Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, over the performance of Israeli-trained Georgian troops. One of the Israeli military advisers there was reserve Brigadier-General Gal Hirsch, who commanded a division in Israel’s inconclusive war with Hezbollah in 2006, and who resigned his commission afterwards.

“Gal Hirsch, who was defeated in Lebanon, went to Georgia and they too lost because of him,” the Shia leader taunted. “Relying on Israeli experts and weapons, Georgia learnt why the Israeli generals failed.

“What happened in Georgia is a message to all those the Americans are seeking to entangle in dangerous adventures.”

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 21 Aug 2008 23:04

- Iran is the biggest winner of NATO-Russia tensions. This is very different from the Cold War

- Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states rather than lining up behind the US have been courting Russia since 2002 in order to wean the Russians away from Iran. Again, very different from the Cold War.

- The Taliban is a smaller but signficant winner, thanks to the vital importance of NATO-Russian cooperation in reducing Pakistan's control over Anti-Taliban logistics. However Afghanistan is the area of common interests that will *compel* NATO and Russia to rebuild a working security relationship.

- Russia's sense of insecurity is incredibly deeply ingrained. It has always tried to create a security belt around it. More often than not it has done so through either outright conquest, or through regimes propped up by Russian troops.

It has not had much success in creating voluntary partnerships on its western borders in part because of its sense of ideological entitlement first from the idea of a semi-divine Tsar (Caesar), and then through the internationalist mandate of communism.

NATO allies looked weak in the 1940s, 50s and 60s when the Soviet Union first engineered communist coups in Eastern Europe, and then later when the Soviets bloodily intervened to prevent those peoples from chosing their own governments. Despite that, it is the NATO alliance that has endured and grown. Nobody actually *in* NATO has ever been let down or abandoned during any European crisis. Although all are certainly not equals, decision making is genuinely collective, based on common interests.

Nobody can hold together an alliance, or an empire that is largely sustained through coerscion.

Russia's security strategy in the West and the Caucasus will continue to produce more losses than gains in the long run unless it gives up Soviet and Tsarist models, especially when something like the EU and NATO offer both greater political independence, and broader socioeconomic benefits.

Igorr · Post by **Igorr** » 22 Aug 2008 01:48

"Free" media liars about Russia action in Georgia:
http://wagthedogreality.wordpress.com/

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 22 Aug 2008 06:23

some photo psy-ops from georgian MOD.

http://www.mod.gov.ge/2008/bombing/phot ... oto-E.html
http://www.mod.gov.ge/2008/bombing/bombing-E.html