Caucasus Crisis

[Gerard]

He has got to be a reincarnated Paki leader. He begs just like them.
Conflict with Russia cost us $2.3bn: Mikheil Saakashvili

Mr Saakashvili told the Financial Times that in addition to cash for reconstruction, Georgia needed "insurance" from the US and Europe to allay the fears of overseas investors.

[ramana]

Let him whine. The fool didnt know he was being used as gambit for opening up Eastern Europe and is paying the price for being a patsy. If the Georgians replace him they wont get the patsy price even for the US will walk away and claim no responsibility.

[krish.pf]

The Nato ships in the Black Sea are carrying more than 100 'Tomahawk' cruise missiles, with more than 50 onboard the USS McFaul alone that could hit ground targets, reported RIA news agency, quoting unnamed sources in Russian military intelligence.

Things are certainly getting more exciting and dangerous. One wrong move or a misfire can trigger...
I wonder if there are some subs in the area.

So nothing has changed as far as this Parliament resolution goes - it is meaningless - it only makes backing down more difficult for Putin and what he can offer to the west in a future bargain. I doubt if GOI and such other friends of Russia would recognise this independence of SO and shoot itself on its foot, even if Russia gives away a couple of aircraft carriers free. US was at least able to arm twist a few into recognising Kosovo.

Why should Medvedev & Putin back down in the first place? It is abundantly clear now that U.S and it's pets are playing the game by the old rule "Might is Right". After deliberately breaking the promise that NATO wouldn't expand to former soviet states and knocking on Russia's doorsteps, it is abundantly clear now that the U.S lead circus is indeed planning on a Global Checkmate by strategically positioning forces facing the strongest nation which is capable standing up to Western Whims & Desires.

I hope the M.P combo repeats the same in Ukraine. Annex Crimea & the East Ukraine.

We all have SO's and Abkhazia's buried in our closets and that makes the general pro-Russian reaction all the more surprising. Perhaps we will come to our senses if one day China announces anyone with oriental features living in North East or Arunachal is free to apply for Chinese passports to gain leverage in future negotiations.

Wrong analogy.

1# India is not Georgia & China is not Russia.

2# There are no Chinese Consulate officials and Chinese Peacekeepers running around and distributing passports in settled areas in the N.E. It's our Army which is there.

3# Even if the Chinese somehow manage to do that, majority of people there are not pro-chinese.

Also, Russia will condemn it because they know their far-east is next if this succeeds. So the U.N security council will not recognise it.

BTW, you still haven't answered my previous question. You're most probably avoiding it, and I can guess the reasons why.

[ramana]

The analogy is Georgia is like TSP. TSP joined Western alliances- SEATO, CENTO as a bulwark against Soviet Union but with India on its mind. In 1965 it got into a war with India and was shocked when the US cut off arms supplies. Same way Georgia attacked Ossetia and was shocked when Russia retaliated and the West stood by. The problem is that of a small neighbor who confronts a big neighbor with the help of far away powers. Classic balance of power dynamics gone wrong.

[krish.pf]

I agree with the above analogy.
The Chinese-N.E analogy was wrong.

[Igorr]

Independence!

Statement by President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev, August 26, 2008

My dear fellow countrymen, citizens of Russia!

You are no doubt well aware of the tragedy of South Ossetia. The night-time execution-style bombardment of Tskhinval by the Georgian troops resulted in the deaths of hundreds of our civilians. Among the dead were the Russian peacekeepers, who gave their lives in fulfilling their duty to protect women, children and the elderly.

The Georgian leadership, in violation of the UN Charter and their obligations under international agreements and contrary to the voice of reason, unleashed an armed conflict victimizing innocent civilians. The same fate lay in store for Abkhazia. Obviously, they in Tbilisi hoped for a blitz-krieg that would have confronted the world community with an accomplished fact. The most inhuman way was chosen to achieve the objective – annexing South Ossetia trough the annihilation of a whole people.

That was not the first attempt to do this. In 1991, President Gamsahourdia of Georgia, having proclaimed the motto "Georgia for Georgians" – just think about it! – ordered attacks on the cities of Sukhum and Tskhinval. The result then was thousands of killed people, dozens of thousands of refugees and devastated villages. And it was Russia who at that time put an end to the eradication of the Abkhaz and Ossetian peoples. Our country came forward as a mediator and peacekeeper insisting on a political settlement. In doing so we were invariably guided by the recognition of Georgia's territorial integrity.

The Georgian leadership chose another way. Disrupting the negotiating process, ignoring the agreements achieved, committing political and military provocations, attacking the peacekeepers – all these actions grossly violated the regime established in conflict zones with the support of the United Nations and OSCE.

Russia continually displayed calm and patience. We repeatedly called for returning to the negotiating table and did not deviate from this position of ours even after the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo's independence. However our persistent proposals to the Georgian side to conclude agreements with Abkhazia and South Ossetia on the non-use of force remained unanswered. Regrettably, they were ignored also by NATO and even at the United Nations.

It stands quite clear now: a peaceful resolution of the conflict was not part of Tbilisi's plan. The Georgian leadership was methodically preparing for war, while the political and material support provided by their foreign guardians only served to reinforce the perception of their own impunity.

Tbilisi made its choice during the night of August 8, 2008. Saakashvili opted for genocide to accomplish his political objectives. By doing so he himself dashed all the hopes for the peaceful coexistence of Ossetians, Abkhazians and Georgians in a single state. The peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have several times spoken out at referendums in favor of independence for their republics. It is our understanding that after what has happened in Tskhinval and what has been planned for Abkhazia they have the right to decide their destiny by themselves.

The Presidents of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, based on the results of the referendums conducted and on the decisions taken by the Parliaments of the two republics, appealed to Russia to recognize the state sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Federation Council and the State Duma voted in support of those appeals.

A decision needs to be taken based on the situation on the ground. Considering the freely expressed will of the Ossetian and Abkhaz peoples and being guided by the provisions of the UN Charter, the 1970 Declaration on the Principles of International Law Governing Friendly Relations Between States, the CSCE Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and other fundamental international instruments, I signed Decrees on the recognition by the Russian Federation of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's independence.

Russia calls on other states to follow its example. This is not an easy choice to make, but it represents the only possibility to save human lives.

[Igorr]

Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
26-08-2008

Russia has recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, mindful of its responsibility for ensuring the survival of their fraternal peoples in the face of aggressive, chauvinistic policy pursued by Tbilisi.

That policy is based on the slogan "Georgia for Georgians" advanced in 1989 by Zviad Gamsakhurdia who tried to implement it in 1992 by abolishing the autonomies in the Georgian territory and ordering Georgian troops to take Sukhum and Tskhinval with a view to enforcing unlawful practices. It was as early as then, that South Ossetia was subjected to genocide. Ossetians fell victim to slaughter and mass expulsion.

Due to self-sacrificing actions by the peoples rising in revolt against the aggressor and efforts undertaken by Russia, it became possible to stop the bloodshed, to negotiate a cease.fire and to establish mechanisms to maintain peace and to address all aspects of the settlement.

Peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia and Abkhazia were created, respectively, in 1992 and 1994, along with the institutional infrastructure to facilitate, with Russia's mediation, confidence building, social and economic rehabilitation and the solution of issues related to political status. Those steps were supported by the UN and the OSCE which got involved in the work of the relevant mechanisms and sent their observers to the zones of conflict.

In spite of certain difficulties, peacekeeping and negotiating mechanisms did work helping to bridge positions and to achieve concrete agreements.

However, prospects for settlement which was already in sight were ruined when, at the end of 2003, the political power in Georgia was taken, by way of revolution, by Mikhail Saakashvili who immediately started to threaten to use force to solve the South Ossetia and Abkhazia problems.

In May 2004, special forces and troops of the Internal Ministry of Georgia were deployed in the zone of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict, and in August that year Georgian troops shelled Tskhinval and tried to take it. With active mediation of Russia, the then Prime Minister of Georgia Zurab Zhvania and the leader of South Ossetia Eduard Kokoity signed a cease.fire protocol and, in November 2004, a document on ways to normalize relations in a step.by.step manner.

After the mysterious death, in February 2005, of Zurab Zhvania, who was a sensible politician, Mikhail Saakashvili categorically rejected all the previously achieved agreements.

That was also the case with regard to the Abkhazian settlement on the basis of the Cease.Fire and Disengagement Agreement signed in Moscow on May 14, 1994. In accordance with the Agreement, collective peacekeeping forces were deployed in the zone of the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict. In addition, the UN Observer Mission in Georgia and the Group of Friends of the UN Secretary General on Georgia were established.

Having brought, in 2006, the Georgian military contingent into the Upper Kodori in violation of all the UN agreements and decisions, Mikhail Saakashvili disrupted the emerging progress in the settlement process within these mechanisms, including the implementation of the agreements of March 2003 between Vladimir Putin and Eduard Shevardnadze on joint efforts to bring back refugees and establish the railway communication between Sochi and Tbilisi.

Mikhail Saakashvili continued to overtly ignore Georgia's commitments and arrangements within the UN and OSCE and established puppet administrative institutions for Abkhazia and South Ossetia so as to drive the final nail into the coffin of the negotiating process.

All years of Mikhail Saakashivili's rule were marked by his absolute inability to negotiate, continuous provocations and staged incidents in the conflict areas, attacks against Russian peacekeepers, disparaging attitude towards democratically elected leaders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Since the outbreak of the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in early 1990s, as a result of Tbilisi actions, Russia has been doing its utmost to contribute to their settlement on the basis of recognition of the territorial integrity of Georgia. Russia has taken this position despite the fact that the proclamation by Georgia of its independence violated the right of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to self-determination. In accordance with the Law of the USSR "On the procedure for addressing the issues related to the secession of a Union's Republic", autonomous entities that formed part of Union's Republics were entitled to resolve themselves the issues of their stay within the Union and their state legal status in case of the secession of the Republic. Georgia prevented Abkhazia and South Ossetia from exercising that right.

Nevertheless, Russia consistently followed its policy, performed its peacekeeping and mediating functions in good faith, sought to contribute to attaining peace agreements, showed restraint and patience in case of provocations. Our positions remained intact even after the unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo.

By the aggressive attack against South Ossetia on the night of 8 August 2008, which resulted in numerous human losses, including among the peacekeepers and other Russian citizens, and by the preparation of a similar action against Abkhazia, Mikhail Saakashivili has himself put paid to the territorial integrity of Georgia. Using repeatedly brutal military force against the peoples, whom, according to his words, he would like to see within his State, Mikhail Saakashvili left them no other choice but to ensure their security and the right to exist through self-determination as independent States.

It is hardly possible that Mikhail Saakashvili did not realize the consequences with which an attempt to resolve the Abkhaz and South Ossetian conflicts by force was fraught. As early as in February 2006, he said in an interview: “I will never give an order to start a military operation. I do not want people to die since blood in the Caucasus means blood not even for decades but for centuries”. Thus, he knew what he was doing.

One should not forget about the role of those who have been conniving all those years with the military regime of Mikhail Saakashvili, who have been supplying offensive weapons to him in violation of OSCE and EU rules, who have been discouraging him from assuming obligations not to use force, who have been fostering a feeling of impunity in him, inter alia, as regards his authoritarian actions aimed at stamping out dissent in Georgia. We know that at some stage the external patrons of Mikhail Saakashvili tried to prevent him from reckless military adventures; however it is obvious that he completely went out of control. We are concerned about the fact that some failed to draw objective conclusions from the aggression. The vague hopes for the implementation of the joint initiative of the Presidents of Russia and France of August 12, 2008, soon vanished into thin air when Tbilisi actually rejected this initiative and the advocates of Mikhail Saakashvili did his bidding. What is more, the USA and some European states promise Mikhail Saakashvili protection of NATO, call for rearming the Tbilisi regime and even start to deliver new shipments of weapons. This is an overt invitation to new reckless ventures.

Taking into account the appeals of South Ossetian and Abkhaz peoples, of the Parliaments and Presidents of both Republics, the opinion of the Russian people and both Chambers of the Federal Assembly the President of the Russian Federation decided to recognize the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and to conclude treaties of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance with them.

Making this decision, Russia was guided by the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations, the Helsinki Final Act and other fundamental international instruments, including the 1970 Declaration on Principles of International Law concerning Friendly Relations among States. It should be noted that in accordance with the Declaration, every State has the duty to refrain from any forcible action which deprives peoples of their right to self-determination and freedom and independence, to adhere in their activities to the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples, and to possess a government representing the whole people belonging to the territory. There is no doubt that Mikhail Saakashvili's regime is far from meeting those high standards set by the international community.

Russia has sincere good and friendly feelings towards the Georgian people, and is confident that Georgia will eventually find worthy leaders who would be able to show proper concern over their country and develop mutually respectful, equal, and good-neighbourly relations with all the peoples of the Caucasus. Russia will stand ready to contribute to this in every way.

[namit k]

Russia recognizes Georgia regions as Bush condemns

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/ ... 0420080826

SOCHI, Russia (Reuters) - Russia recognized two rebel regions of Georgia as independent states on Tuesday, driving up tension in the volatile Caucasus and putting Moscow on a collision course with the West.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tbilisi's desire to seize back Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force had killed all hopes for their peaceful co-existence in one state with Georgia.

But, leading a chorus of Western condemnation of the move, U.S. President George W. Bush said the two regions were part of Georgia and "they must remain so".

"Russia's action only exacerbates tensions and complicates diplomatic negotiations," Bush said in a statement.

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili called the Russian move "completely illegal" and the United States said any attempt to seek U.N. Security Council blessing would be "dead on arrival". NATO and European powers also criticized the decision.

Medvedev, in a statement from his summer residence in the resort of Sochi, accused Saakashvili of choosing "genocide" to solve his political problems.

"The peoples of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have more than once spoken in referenda supporting the independence of their republics. We understand that after what had happened...they have the right to decide their fate themselves.

Russian tanks and troops are still occupying parts of Georgia after a brief war over South Ossetia earlier this month -- the first time Moscow has sent troops into another country since the end of the Soviet Union in 1991. Continued...

seems like bear is very serious to expand
czar Medvedev is now looking to expand rus.
clear warning to poland and ukraine though, that is dont mess with russia
i imagine a emergency meeting in capitol hill amid election season
therefore Bear's luck is good,its prey attacked it, you can imagine the result-prey was pierced
i.e Tbilisi and bush are hard fools
medvedev also said in an interview that he does not likes a cold war and this time russias enemy would be in a greater loss so this seems a smart move by russians to stop a cold war from its neighbouring countries before it starts from there,
so russia is still playing chess with a baseball player in world games

[Igorr]

Hmm... something went wrong for them:

TBILISI (Reuters) - U.S. warships have scrapped a plan to deliver relief supplies to Georgia's flashpoint port of Poti on Wednesday, a source close to the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi said.

"The ships will not dock in Poti tomorrow," the source told Reuters, referring to a planned mission by the USS McFaul and another vessel.

Their presence would have been sure to enrage Russia, which has troops patrolling the port following a brief war with Georgia.

[namit k]

Hmm... something went wrong for them:

TBILISI (Reuters) - U.S. warships have scrapped a plan to deliver relief supplies to Georgia's flashpoint port of Poti on Wednesday, a source close to the U.S. embassy in Tbilisi said.

"The ships will not dock in Poti tomorrow," the source told Reuters, referring to a planned mission by the USS McFaul and another vessel.

Their presence would have been sure to enrage Russia, which has troops patrolling the port following a brief war with Georgia.

fear of tee you twentee too-M

[enqyoob]

isn't Poti in Abhkazia? Sorry, jee-o-grafikkally challenged. Maybe the dockworkers ran away? Or dockworkers turned up wearing red star on their caps?

(Posted later... scratch that, but I think the port still has a large presence of tourists from Russia who came in tracked all-terrain SUVs, all eager to help unload the American ships, missiles and all. )

[Arun_S]

seems like bear is very serious to expand

No sir, Russia is just defending its interest, just as US is expanding its interest by noodling its toe in Georgia; to join in heart and soul USA Georgia state with its namesake in central Asia.

If the next longing and pang is to join in heart and soul with Georgian school/facility in South-Asia, will India act any differently! We know that India will not because of its secular philosophy and socialist religion, it continues to vacate against its interest in neighboring territories. Nepal and North east are moving borders.

India ignored Chankya and real-politics to become a pgymy shadow of itself; compared to Greater India extending from Central Asia to what is left of it today.

Ignore History & real-Politics/Chanakya and it will continue to shrink. India should act as other big countries do.

[enqyoob]

Someone moi knows was at a presentation by a senior AmirKhani diplomat/phoren polijy sbejialist. He was giving the usual patriotic spiels about Russia's "unacceptable invasion" and the fact that Russia has outright rejected all contacts with NATO.

But his heart was not in it. At the end one of the questioners phrased a question starting with a mumbling about how Shalikaashvili had done something so stupid.... but he didn't take the bait.

Our friend went up to him later and asked him:

Didn't Russia just do to Georgia what the US should have done to Iraq in 1990?

Expression on his face was worth seeing.

NO, BECAUSE I DON'T AGREE THAT THE US SHOULD HAVE DONE THAT TO IRAQ! 'BYE,

But it was very very obvious that the question had hit home. He had said earlier that he had written a few years ago, advising that the expansion of NATO was a really stupid idea. So overall, my take is that the "party line" is how bad Russia is, but the real sense is one of huge relief. One of his earlier comments:

Now consider what would have happened, had Georgia actually been admitted into NATO... the treaty is that "an attack on one is an attack on all" so can you imagine American troops being injected into Georgia to fight Russia?

Then he reasoned that this would still not have happened, because the treaty also says: "each state will respond consistent with its own constitutional processes"

IOW, real support for the Georgian Yahya is rather low.

[svinayak]

The analogy is Georgia is like TSP. TSP joined Western alliances- SEATO, CENTO as a bulwark against Soviet Union but with India on its mind. In 1965 it got into a war with India and was shocked when the US cut off arms supplies. Same way Georgia attacked Ossetia and was shocked when Russia retaliated and the West stood by. The problem is that of a small neighbor who confronts a big neighbor with the help of far away powers. Classic balance of power dynamics gone wrong.

Indians should not use analogy for European situation.
This book should be read to understand the real history and also the mind of the western leaders at that time. They have never forgiven themselves for putting Poland and Ukraine inside Stalins Soviet state for over 50 years after WWII. To make amendments they are ready to take risk now to guarantee Poland security with NATO membership.

Churchill, Hitler, and "The Unnecessary War": How Britain Lost Its Empire and the West Lost the World
by Patrick J. Buchanan (Author)
Among the British and Churchillian blunders were:

• The secret decision of a tiny cabal in the inner Cabinet in 1906 to take Britain straight to war against Germany, should she invade France
• The vengeful Treaty of Versailles that muti- lated Germany, leaving her bitter, betrayed, and receptive to the appeal of Adolf Hitler
• Britain’s capitulation, at Churchill’s urging, to American pressure to sever the Anglo- Japanese alliance, insulting and isolating Japan, pushing her onto the path of militarism and conquest
• The 1935 sanctions that drove Italy straight into the Axis with Hitler
• The greatest blunder in British history: the unsolicited war guarantee to Poland of March 1939—that guaranteed the Second World War
• Churchill’s astonishing blindness to Stalin’s true ambitions.

[Vick]

The Truth About Russia in Georgia

But when the Soviet Union collapsed it became an essential Russian policy to weaken the states on its periphery by activating the ethnic fuses they planted.

Inside the Battle for the Black Sea

"We took up station guarding the opposed landing on the Abkhaz shore when all of a sudden four high speed targets were detected. We sent out an IFF signal and the targets didn't react. Receiving a command from the flagship, we got into formation and right at that moment the unidentified targets opened fire on the ship formation and flagship. The cruiser [Moskva] was damaged and a small fire broke out aboard. Then, fearing for seaworthiness, the flagship withdrew from the firing area."

There are reports that contradict what this Russian sailor said about the Moskva being damaged.

S. Ossetia To Ask Russia For Base: Report
agence france-presse
Published: 26 Aug 11:22 EDT (15:22 GMT)

MOSCOW - South Ossetian leader Eduard Kokoity said Aug. 26 he would ask Russia to set up a military base in the Georgian separatist region, Interfax news agency reported.

"We are ready to reach a friendship agreement with Russia," Kokoity was quoted as saying after President Dmitry Medvedev announced that Russia will recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another rebel region, as independent countries.

"I also will propose that Russia station a Russian military base in South Ossetia," Kokoity said.

[Suppiah]

BTW, you still haven't answered my previous question. You're most probably avoiding it, and I can guess the reasons why.

I dont understand your obsession with my location. These days it does not mean anything. It does not indicate nationality, passport or ethnic origins.

In this very page you have posted this idiotic question and the stupid statement about assuming something, practically none of the posters, including yourself have posted the location. So what assumption shall I make? Why dont you go after all of them!

[Y. Kanan]

seems like bear is very serious to expand
czar Medvedev is now looking to expand rus.
clear warning to poland and ukraine though, that is dont mess with russia
i imagine a emergency meeting in capitol hill amid election season
therefore Bear's luck is good,its prey attacked it, you can imagine the result-prey was pierced
i.e Tbilisi and bush are hard fools
medvedev also said in an interview that he does not likes a cold war and this time russias enemy would be in a greater loss so this seems a smart move by russians to stop a cold war from its neighbouring countries before it starts from there,
so russia is still playing chess with a baseball player in world games

Pfft... troll. You're not fooling anyone you know.

If you're going to pretend to be an Indian, at least work on the grammar you illiterate.

[Suppiah]

seems like bear is very serious to expand

Ignore History & real-Politics/Chanakya and it will continue to shrink. India should act as other big countries do.

India has been playing Chanakya, but not backed by economic and other muscles, it has largely failed. Bases in Uzbek, playing around in Afghan, controlling Nepal, interfere in SL etc. Net net result is two bit terrorist states like TSP/BD as well as others like Nepal, SL etc., openly flirt with China and dont care a damn. (To quote the Mahabharath, our astras are failing us, just as the wife of a man that has lost his fortune refuses to listen to him). We are unfortunately neither feared and respected as a big bag goonda nor liked as a genial and harmless uncle next door.

IMHO India should quietly build muscle before playing Chankya. Same goes for Russia. It has hardly recovered from crisis years and it is too early to take on the west brazenly, simply because it has nukes. My feeling is they will realise this folly sooner than later, with or (more likely) without Putin. It is irrespective of the moral rights and wrongs of the situation. Both India and Russia can learn from China which is playing its cards very carefully even as it builds muscle.

[Y. Kanan]

The Truth About Russia in Georgia

The truth? Though presented in a very convincing fashion, most of the proof and accusations presented in this article are in fact nothing more than subjective opinion. I can find any number of identical articles from the other side, which are just as effective at molding your opinion.

For example here's a nice account of Georgia's measured and humane response in Tskhninvali:
http://www.iwpr.net/?p=crs&s=f&o=346117 ... te=henpcrs

I take all this sort of propaganda with a grain of salt. There are no real victims or good guys here.

[Karan Dixit]

IMHO India should quietly build muscle before playing Chankya. Same goes for Russia.

Playing Chanakaya is precisely there to augment the muscle. Chanakaya neeti applies at all times whether you have muscle or not. Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Nepal are very vital to Indian interest. And Indian government will have to sooner or later start taking charge of the situation in those countries.

[renukb]

Russia’s bear-paw swipe at Georgia has got many people drawing comparisons with the Cold War, but personally I like to look for parallels in the 19th century.

What Russia wants: lessons from the 19th century
http://blogs.reuters.com/global/2008/08 ... h-century/

[krish.pf]

I dont understand your obsession with my location. These days it does not mean anything. It does not indicate nationality, passport or ethnic origins.

In this very page you have posted this idiotic question and the stupid statement about assuming something, practically none of the posters, including yourself have posted the location. So what assumption shall I make? Why dont you go after all of them!

It's not my obsession to know your location, rather it's your obsession to hide your location along with your pro-west obsession which makes me suspect the kind of guy you are.

As for my location, isn't it obvious.. I'm in my country, India, which should distance itself from a nation comfortably separated by 2 oceans along with a lot of mineral wealth, is ever closer to Global Hegemony & Invulnerability, and which clearly doesn't want to see India with ICBMs and improved nukes.

[Igorr]

isn't Poti in Abhkazia? Sorry, jee-o-grafikkally challenged. Maybe the dockworkers ran away? Or dockworkers turned up wearing red star on their caps?

(Posted later... scratch that, but I think the port still has a large presence of tourists from Russia who came in tracked all-terrain SUVs, all eager to help unload the American ships, missiles and all. )

THis is a map with mileage:

[Suppiah]

Mods can something be done about mentally deranged idiots harassing members about location (as if that certifies patriotism) and forming absurd conclusions and launching attacks on that basis? I am not going to waste space or bandwidth replying to them.

AFAIK, thanks to good mods and by and large good community here, there is no standard, permitted or official opinion for each thread and anyone not following that can be abused about his patriotism or racial origins. Nor is there an official requirement of location disclosure.

[Philip]

What is astonishing for the US/west and especially their Georgian puppet,Shaky-willy,is that Russia very clearly warned them that if Kosovo was declared an independent state and if Georgia attacked any of them,they would likewise recognise the two ex-Georgian enclaves likewise.There was no "Bear-trap" prepared for Shaky-willy.He was just too smart for his boots,thought that NATO and the US would rush to his support if he was attacked by Russia.He disatrously thought that S.Ossetia could be smashed in 24 hrs. and that he would re-establish Georgian control over it thereby.

Now,as both Medvedev and Putin have said,there is no going back for these two enclaves who have now obtained independence.Georgia will fret and fume and perhaps at a later date even sabre-rattle once more pumped up with US steroids.The US/NATO will send in aid and make a big show of its presence in Georgia trying to irritate the Russians.But effectively for all purposes,Georgia has lost not just face but vital territory and the US/NATO have also lost face and their claim of being reliable allies in tiem of need.The bext big prize is Ukraine,where the game has already begun.In that country,the vast majority of the population do not want to join nATO and as Pres.Medvedev said,the current dispensation is scared of holding a referendum there for fear of losing it!

We will also see a new urgent modernisation of the Russian armed forces,as some Russian commentators have grumbled that the weaponry used by Russia in this spat was from the Soviet era .Cold War-2 is upon us quite definitely.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 615158.ece

Dimitri Medvedev raises spectre of new Cold War
(Vladmir Rodionov)
Russian President Dimitri Medvedev
James Hider in Akhalgori, Georgia
Russia put the West on alert for a new Cold War that the Kremlin is ready to fight, its President said yesterday.

President Medvedev set tensions soaring when he recognised the independence of two breakaway republics inside Georgia. “We are not afraid of anything, including the prospect of a Cold War,” he said. Hours earlier he had ordered his Foreign Ministry to start establishing diplomatic ties with the secessionist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The move brought instant condemnation from the United States, Britain, France, Germany and other Western countries. President Bush appealed to the Kremlin to “reconsider this irresponsible decision”. David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, said that it was “unjustifiable and unacceptable”.

Mr Medvedev, whose troops still occupy positions in Georgia, including in the vital Black Sea port of Poti, said that he did not want a return to the Cold War, but that “everything depends on the position of our partners”.

The sense of a stand-off deepened when US officials reversed a statement that American warships would be delivering humanitarian aid to Poti. A US diplomat in Tbilisi had announced that two guided missile warships would be docking at the port despite the Russian military presence. Mr Medvedev accused the Americans of trying to smuggle weapons to the Georgians.

President Saakashvili of Georgia declared that Russia’s backing for the separatists was illegal, and accused it of looking for any excuse to provoke Georgia and allow Russia’s military machine to roll back into his country.

He said that Russian forces were building up in Akhalgori in South Ossetia, 20 miles (30km) north of Tbilisi. Remnants of Georgia’s security forces were guarding makeshift checkpoints on the road to Akhalgori, and South Ossetian paramilitaries refused entry to all but local residents, a mixture of South Ossetians and Georgians.

Later, a Russian army helicopter swooped over the Georgian forces and ordered them to withdraw. The Georgians, under orders from their President not to ignite a new war, complied.

Have your say

Once again, Western double standards! !! How different is Kosovo from Georgia situation?!? Why can not South Ossetia and Abkhazia have the right to idependence like in Kosovo? US and Britian supported Kosovo separatists and recognized its unilateral independece...

Martina, London,

I'm surprised by all the americans commenting here about Russia's economy as if it was still the 1990's.Russia's GDP has multiplied by 30 since 1995 and their growth is roughly at 8.5%. And they've more natural ressources than you can shake a stick at. Russia is in pretty good shape right now.

Xav, Toulouse, France

Russia is right to cite the precedence of Kosovo in recognising the two new Caucasian states. We should be glad that it has not used the precedence of Iraq to force a "regime change" in Georgia.

An Qijie, Hong Kong, China

Go and ask Iraqis do they want your "democracy" to be set up in their country. and please coould anyone explain me what do 10 american warship do in the Black Sea with about 100 cruise missiles aboard which range is 2500 km?
D.A., Ekat,

I'd not agree more to Paul's comment that "it's amazing to me that people forget how this conflict started in the first place. georgia showed excessive use of force when it FIRST invaded South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia had to respond."

We need a consistent standard here and there in Kosovo.

Yang Liang, Beijing, China

How can the leaders of the West talk about the integrity of Georgia when NATO and the West had devastated Yugoslavia and hurried to recognize a separatist Kosovo regime. All this after Serbs were being forced out of Kosovo for decades so it could become "predominately Albanian" region.

Eli, Tel Aviv, Israel

It does really seem that our collective Western memory is a bit short. I fail to see the difference between what Georgia did and what Serbia did ten years ago in Kosovo. And I fail to see the difference between our recognition of Kosovo and Russia's recognition of these two republics?

Adam, Carrboro, NC, USA

it's amazing to me that people forget how this conflict started in the first place. georgia showed excessive use of force when it FIRST invaded South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Russia had to respond, they didn't start this conflict, as the popular press would have you believe. the us won the info war

paul, San Franicsco, US

Tim, Troy, MI

Quite true Edmund the Younger.

This whole round of aggression started with the Bush Administration's implementation of Project for a New American Century. The rules have been torn up, our (the West) actions have given the green light to similar actions by other states, let us hope sanity prevails.

Nick, Brighton, UK

the georgian president commited a gross error of justice when he instructed his tiny military forces to invade south ossetia and abkhazia.this was manna from heaven for pm putin to progress his plan to bring 1992 breakaway states back into the russian federation.occupation of poti and 'peacekeeping'

stephen foley, battle, east sussex

The UN doesn't really matter that much, except for nations to claim some expedient moral authority by using it. I can't think of a powerful nation which hasn't torn up the UN charter, or rewritten it for some convenient reason.

Michael Patterson, Birmingham, UK

If Britain and America hadn't torn up the UN Charter by invading Iraq - without a Security Council mandate, and without any threat to either country on the part of Saddam Hussein - they would be in a position to take action in the UN on the legality of what Russia is doing in Georgia.

Edmund Burke, Kingston upon Thames, England

[krish.pf]

Mods can something be done about mentally deranged idiots harassing members about location (as if that certifies patriotism) and forming absurd conclusions and launching attacks on that basis? I am not going to waste space or bandwidth replying to them.

AFAIK, thanks to good mods and by and large good community here, there is no standard, permitted or official opinion for each thread and anyone not following that can be abused about his patriotism or racial origins. Nor is there an official requirement of location disclosure.

Perfectly proving my point that you are indeed obsessive about concealing your location.. not to mention you are losing your cool so quickly just goes to prove you are rather insecure about your new found Identity.
Where do your loyalties lie?, to India or to your new-found-home? I think I have the answer.
You better learn from the others here who even in foreign lands, their mind are focussed on seeing their nation not as an outpost for a large power but rather a nation which stands independent and proud.
Oh.. and given the posts made by you so far, everyone here can see who the real "mentally deranged idiot" is.

[enqyoob]

Wonder if dilli is going to

a) rush to recognije S. Ossetia and Abkhajia or
b) just wait until they have been absorbed into Russia, which is clearly the next step.
or
c) issue stupid statements on Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity.

While (b) seems obvious, (a) may be appropriate if the nuke deal gets sabotaged, and (c) being the most pompous, useless and counter-productive of all, would appeal to many Eye Eph Ess types as the Correct and Prinjipalled Conjijtent Legally Terminolojically Exactitudinouj Ishtand.

[Gerard]

(a) pretend it doesn't exist
(b) form an empowered committee to study the problem and make recommendations
(c) sit on the recommendations for a few years
etc

[Rahul M]

@ krish and suppiah, guys please put each other on the ignore list if you can't get along.

krish, you can't ask a member to divulge his location if he doesn't want to. that is not negotiable. and enough of the you are not a patriot bilge. please try to contribute meaningfully and w/o name-calling. consider this to be an unofficial warning.

suppiah, if you find a problem with a post kindly report it. if you try to force the issue yourself, you may become an unintentional victim of collateral damage. and please cut down on the name calling.

[Suppiah]

China issues usual vague motherhood statement:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008- ... 723473.htm

But that could change when Hu meets Russians as part of the SCO summit. Let us see what they come up with after that..this group is just about the friendliest Russia could get assembled in one place.

[enqyoob]

Oh, I nearly missed this wonderful love-fest about GPS coordinates.


krish.pdf (krish.jpg, krish.doc, krish.html and krish.gif) diyars:

The question of GPS coordinates denotes a little bit about perspective and intelligence besides, of course, the admirable Patriotism. Since you are Patriotically Situated inside the Matrubhoomi, you may benefit from easy access to the Panchatantra. In particular I have always admired the dedicated Patriotism of the lead character in the Legend of Poojya Shri Shri Makram In Da Well.

Arundhati Roy, Pankaj Mishra and all the other Paki and Naxal terrorists also share this wonderfully admirable feature with you: Patriotism By Location. Congratulations!

Generally, those who advance the line of reasoning that you have advanced, also qualify under the 4SPDA, a great honour on BRF. The legendary Sheikh Lahorus Rajpoot from Bangalore, Kerala, comes to mind.

[Suppiah]

Thanks Rahul. Yes I will avoid name calling.

[Rahul M]

Generally, those who advance the line of reasoning that you have advanced, also qualify under the 4SPDA, a great honour on BRF. The legendary Sheikh Lahorus Rajpoot from Bangalore, Kerala, comes to mind.

Oh, and btw, I can't understand why people think suppiah is hiding his location !
his profile clearly mentions that he lives in (-) !

[Suppiah]

(a) pretend it doesn't exist
(b) form an empowered committee to study the problem and make recommendations
(c) sit on the recommendations for a few years
etc

Ministry of Ext. affairs website is totally silent on this affair. Strangely the comrades are also quiet, not calling on GOI to come out strongly against the 'imperialists'

[krish.pf]

krish, you can't ask a member to divulge his location if he doesn't want to. that is not negotiable. and enough of the you are not a patriot bilge. please try to contribute meaningfully and w/o name-calling. consider this to be an unofficial warning.

K. But
1# I was not indulging in calling my opponent offensive names, infact it was the the other way around.
2# I was attacking his points of view and the basis for it(without calling him offensive names), which is what a debate is all about, isn't it?.

Arundhati Roy, Pankaj Mishra and all the other Paki and Naxal terrorists also share this wonderfully admirable feature with you: Patriotism By Location. Congratulations!

Generally, those who advance the line of reasoning that you have advanced, also qualify under the 4SPDA, a great honour on BRF. The legendary Sheikh Lahorus Rajpoot from Bangalore, Kerala, comes to mind.

Please quote me where I said everyone staying outside India are not patriotic.

[Philip]

Here is a very thoughtful piece by Clifford Gaddy of the Brookings Institute.

..do not turn " the world's largest supplier of energy and one of the largest financiers of the U.S. deficit into a pariah and a committed opponent of an already somewhat wobbly international economic order."

How Not To Punish Moscow

Using economics as a weapon against Russia poses risks to the global economic system itself.

By Clifford G. Gaddy | NEWSWEEK
Published Aug 23, 2008
From the magazine issue dated Sep 1, 2008

It appears that Russia will have its way with Georgia and that the west is powerless to do anything about it. In the absence of a willingness to exercise military options, what was intended as "muscular rhetoric" has been exposed as mere bluster and bluff. That has led to pressure to find other ways to punish Russia. In search of a lever, many politicians, from both the left and the right, turn to economics, suggesting that the West can make Russia pay by measures such as blocking its accession to the World Trade Organization, expelling it from the G8 and restricting its investment and trade flows with the West. This is a mistaken approach. The measures being discussed would be ineffectual at best and likely counterproductive. They will hurt us more than the Russians. Ultimately they risk leaving us with a Russia that is more, not less, difficult to deal with. The logic behind using the economic lever is that once Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is made aware of the economic cost of his unacceptable behavior, he will be deterred in the future. The problem is that Putin—still fully in charge in Moscow in his new position—is not only aware of the potential costs of his actions, he is also willing to pay them if need be. Putin recognizes the importance of economic factors in today's world, and he is committed to building Russia's economic strength. But it is a means to an end—strategic security—that he will not sacrifice at any price.

For Putin, Georgia is ultimately about Russia's security. So while we cannot impose a big enough economic cost on Russia to fundamentally change its behavior, we can hurt ourselves. Western interests would suffer if joint programs with the Russians in space and nuclear energy, for instance, were annulled. Cutting economic links with Russia would also mean lost opportunities. Thanks to its oil windfall, Russia is third only to China and Japan as a holder of Western government securities. Right now, we benefit to the extent that these massive funds, which are after all a transfer from our consumers to Russia's state coffers, are being recycled back as loans to Western governments. We would be even better off if they were put to work here in the form of business investments—a prospect that would be unlikely if we were to try to penalize Russia by restricting its investments in the West.

Russia is in the midst of an internal debate about its economic future, and isolating Russia will push it in the wrong direction. There is a consensus that the country must move beyond oil and gas. But how? One side in the debate—which includes a group of bright Western-educated advisers to Putin—recognizes that it can do so only by moving up the ladder of industrial and postindustrial development, fully absorbing not only the latest Western technologies but also its management and organizational techniques and principles of corporate governance. The other side—the so-called statists led by men such as Sergey Chemezov, a former KGB colleague of Putin and now head of the state mega-corporation Russian Technologies—dreams of leapfrogging the West in technology and thereby dispensing with what it regards as alien institutions. In effect, it advocates a grand new Soviet-style experiment of going it alone. And based as it is on the revival of the once mighty defense-industrial complex, this model will necessarily lead to tighter control over resources and people and greater secrecy in all aspects of the economy. Cutting off Russia from the global economy will only strengthen advocates of the modified Soviet model.

Using economics as a weapon against Russia also poses risks to the global economic system itself, which is based on the assumption that greater mutual economic dependency promotes both prosperity and enhanced security. Nations sacrifice some of their sovereignty and independence for greater economic efficiency. The system works well when everyone plays the game on equal terms. But the outcome can be poor if an important player is half in, half out. Russia's energy resources and its financial reserves make it a key player that needs to be kept fully within the system, not pushed out to the margin.

As difficult as the Russian case has been, it is not time to abandon the principle that economic integration helps mitigate the sources of conflict among nations. But the principle cannot work if it is applied in a simplistic way. Russia was, and remains, a special case. The legacy of its Stalinist past still permeates its domestic and foreign political and economic life. Especially because of the pre-eminence of security concerns, it will not respond immediately and predictably to what we might regard as clear and adequate economic incentives, both positive and negative. Russia's oil and gas windfall has further complicated the standard calculations of the benefits of integration. It has allowed Russia to revive its economy without "becoming like us."

We may have made a mistake in assuming too soon that Russia was reliably on the path to normalization. But the response to that mistake should not be to make another, even more serious one, by turning the world's largest supplier of energy and one of the largest financiers of the U.S. deficit into a pariah and a committed opponent of an already somewhat wobbly international economic order.

Gaddy is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and coauthor, with Barry W. Ickes, of the forthcoming book “Russia’s Addiction: The Political Economy of Resource Dependence.”

[Suppiah]

Generally, those who advance the line of reasoning that you have advanced, also qualify under the 4SPDA, a great honour on BRF. The legendary Sheikh Lahorus Rajpoot from Bangalore, Kerala, comes to mind.

Oh, and btw, I can't understand why people think suppiah is hiding his location !
his profile clearly mentions that he lives in (-) !

Is that supposed to mean the middle kingdom?!

Actually answering this question has been a big problem for me, even in normal life. Not trying to be a McCain, but I have four homes, in two countries. I split time between them. Don't be jealous - they are not filled with four wives. Everytime the immigration (exit) guys ask me 'Do you live in India?' I give whatever comes to mind, because both are correct! And that is not even counting the time spent in various countries on business, each one long enough to call home!

[Igorr]

A couple of Medvedev's latest interview videos:
For BBC
For Al-Jazeera
Interview with TF1 Television text
Interview with CNN text

[Philip]

"Misha" (Shaky-Willy)! An exceprt from a Newsweek interviewer.

One evening in June 2006, sitting at a restaurant overlooking the Black Sea, with traditional Georgian dishes and wine laid out in front of us, he said the breakaway regions would return to Georgia once they saw photos of its economic boom and the "snow-white sails of yachts leaving our marina." He later said it would be "suicidal" for Moscow to encourage the birth of a new republic in the Caucasus. Yet those predictions also turned out to be incorrect.

But for all of Misha's miscalculations, the West misunderstood the Georgian president, too. Praised for bringing relative peace and economic stability to the Caucasus, he revealed a darker side in November 2007 when he claimed antigovernment protesters sanctioned by Moscow were trying to overthrow his government. His response stunned his allies. Misha—now Saakashvili—declared martial law, sent in hundreds of armed troops to block a protest in Tbilisi and special forces to storm the offices of the Imedi TV channel, a network owned by a Moscow ally.

...Soon after, I met the president again at his newly built residence in Tbilisi. He had dark rings around his eyes and he alternated between enormous, if not misplaced confidence that his Western allies would help him, and rather childish despair about Russia's view of him personally. He said he had heard that Russian officials play billiards with the word MISHA written on the black ball, and asked the reporters assembled at his home, "What is going on in Russia? Am I hated there?" That evening he seemed traumatized by this. With his head in his hands, and pear juice and brandy running down his chin, he pleaded: "Does anybody know what Russia is up to?"

[Suppiah]

An interesting collection of German opinion, including from so-called left leaning press.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 18,00.html