Caucasus Crisis

[pradeepe]

. Don't be jealous - they are not filled with four wives.

Jealous I would have rushed to offer my condolences. Ever had to deal with 2 bosses. Now imagine 4

[Y. Kanan]

Mods can something be done about mentally deranged idiots harassing members about location (as if that certifies patriotism) and forming absurd conclusions and launching attacks on that basis? I am not going to waste space or bandwidth replying to them.

AFAIK, thanks to good mods and by and large good community here, there is no standard, permitted or official opinion for each thread and anyone not following that can be abused about his patriotism or racial origins. Nor is there an official requirement of location disclosure.

Actually you're quite right. For my part, I shouldn't have joined in this. It's immature and you won't hear any more of it from me.

[enqyoob]

Please quote me where I said everyone staying outside India are not patriotic.

Oh, diyar birather, may I pls schedule that for AFTER I respond to even more insistent questions from ArunS on equally important issues?

[Suppiah]

May a thousand posts bloom..we dont know who is right or wrong time will answer that question..

Posts are of a few categories in the context of this forum:

a) Posting news items - despite the existence of news.google.com, this is a good thing to collect news in one place.
b) Posting comments that aggressively support Russia because they are absolutely right (for historical, philosophical or whatever reasons) or because Misha started this whole fight
c) Support Russia not because she is right, because someone someday has to give it back to Uncle in his own currency. And by the way who is Uncle Sam/West to question Russians.
d) Against Russia because she is plain wrong to bully Georgia, Kosovo/Iraq or no Kosovo/Iraq.
e) Against Russia because it is going to fail, regardless of morals, backfire on russia and if our stupid politicians again bet on wrong horse, we also join the loser.

All of these are and should be welcome. Though I should say a,b,c cover about 99% of the posts here showing remarkable consensus among BRFites which is a bit worrying should this point of view turn out to be wrong!

BTW all this OT crap can be removed in a few days...

[krish.pf]

Oh, diyar birather, may I pls schedule that for AFTER I respond to even more insistent questions from ArunS on equally important issues?

You implied that I said all Indian origin people outside are not patriotic and wrote that post in response.
Anyway take your time.

Against Russia because it is going to fail, regardless of morals, backfire on russia and if our stupid politicians again bet on wrong horse, we also join the loser.

It depends on what the key objectives of the nation are. If the key objectives of this nation is to have a strong nuclear deterrent along with the freedom to have a measurable independent foreign policy, then Russia is the key along with keeping U.S influence away from key areas, as the western states will never allow India to have ICBMs and Pokhran-3,4 etc. If the key objectives of this nation does not include the above then it doesn't have to be closer to Russia. We do not need time to answer this.

[Gerard]

link

But many European leaders believe that Saakashvili acted rashly and brought down much of the destruction on his own head when he sent his troops to take over the autonomous ethnic enclave South Ossetia.

Media reports quoted a senior French official as saying, "On one side you have a bear, and on the other a little roquet," using the latter word for a small yapping dog.

[prabir]

From India's viewpoint, it does not matter who is wrong or who is right.

We should strike a healthy balance in our relationship with both West (America alone personifies West, as West has lost its identity, with some exception of France) as well as Russia.

Our relationship with Russia and US should compliment one another as far as possible, but, on some non-negotiable areas, we have to draw a red line w.r.t US.

Russia is a time-tested friend while US is an opportunistic friend.

Russia can give goodies that US will never part with:
1. Nuke subs
2. Friendly knowledge transfer on key areas

And, it is in Russia's interest to have strong INDIA. I won't be sure if US really wants strong INDIA. Because from their perspective, a genuinely Strong INDIA will mean an argumentative India.

[Vick]

All of these are and should be welcome. Though I should say a,b,c cover about 99% of the posts here showing remarkable consensus among BRFites which is a bit worrying should this point of view turn out to be wrong!

Although I fall in the 1%, there is something to be said about the "wisdom of the crowd".

[renukb]

Georgia War Shows 'Weak' Russia, U.S. Official Says
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 03192.html

Russia's conflict with Georgia is the sign of a "weak" Russian nation, not a newly assertive one, and Moscow now has put its place in the world order at risk, the top U.S. diplomat for relations with the country said in an interview yesterday.

"There is a Russia narrative that 'we were weak in the '90s, but now we are back and we are not going to take it more.' But being angry and seeking revanchist victory is not the sign of a strong nation. It is the sign of a weak one," said Daniel Fried, assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs.

"Russia is going to have to come to terms with the reality it can either integrate with the world or it can be a self-isolated bully. But it can't be both. And that's a choice Russia has to have," Fried said.

[enqyoob]

Dear krish.pdf:

People come here to relax and shoot the breeze. Coming here with a chip up your musharraf, acting hostile to one and all, and hyperventilating "patriotism" cra*, is more effective than EDITED and achieves the same result, (figuratively speaking, of course).

I suggest that you change your user handle to avoid further ridicule (POLITELY PHRASED, of course we are all soo nice! ) - it's just pretty permanent, the effect of doing what you tried to do with your demands that postors reveal their home base, passport number, birth sign, Patriotism Card, etc. Sort of like having a name like "Saakahsvili".

No one gives a pakistan what your hangups are, or whether you "implied" this or that. But everyone remembers what you did - can't help it.

Change your user handle and you can be Born Again.

Cheers!

[Suppiah]

Narayana! Narayana!

Let us avoid this cycle of births and deaths...surrender to Narayana and thou shalt be redeemed.

punarapi jananaM punarapi maraNaM
punarapi jananii jaThare shayanam.h .
iha saMsaare bahudustaare
kR^ipayaa.apaare paahi muraare

[krish.pf]

Dear krish.pdf:

People come here to relax and shoot the breeze. Coming here with a chip up your musharraf, acting hostile to one and all, and hyperventilating "patriotism" cra*, is more effective than EDITED and achieves the same result, (figuratively speaking, of course).

I suggest that you change your user handle to avoid further ridicule (POLITELY PHRASED, of course we are all soo nice! ) - it's just pretty permanent, the effect of doing what you tried to do with your demands that postors reveal their home base, passport number, birth sign, Patriotism Card, etc. Sort of like having a name like "Saakahsvili".

No one gives a pakistan what your hangups are, or whether you "implied" this or that. But everyone remembers what you did - can't help it.

Change your user handle and you can be Born Again.

Cheers!

So you didn't find that quote. And it appears you have never indulged in a debate.
My intentions are not hostile attitudes towards some members rather I want to see some basis behind their statements which some openly flaunt. Unless I'm mistaken, this is also a debating forum. If you can't provide it then all you have to do is walk away. And BTW, what you just did in the above post using proxy words to insult me is what could be called flagrant trolling.

[Aditya_V]

Suppaiah,

Please explain why your post has come in this discussion. It is inappropriate. Regardless of the merit in the post

[Roop]

Georgia War Shows Russia Army Now a `Force to Be Reckoned With'

[krish.pf]

Please explain why your post has come in this discussion. It is inappropriate. Regardless of the merit in the post

Please let me..

Well, I was asking him the rationale behind his pro-us stance in strategic matters by quoting his statements and replying to it. I more than often find people both here and abroad blindly taking a pro-US stance in important strategic military matters just because the western world is developed, or maybe because of some other inane reasons. He didn't justify his rationale behind his stance, rather he subsequently threw a fit. After he threw his fit, Mr. Troll intervened and accused me of what he called "Patriotism by Location".

[Igorr]

The U.S. hands over military secrets to Moscow
Russia's military is surprised by the Georgian army's negligence
Nikolay Barsegov, Author's photo. — 21.08.2008

An elite group of Georgian special forces drove into the "Russian-occupied" Poti on 5 U.S. military Hummers this week. The vehicles were carrying explosives, firearms and top-secret satellite technology — the pride of NATO generals.

The Russian military learned the special forces were approaching the city long before their arrival. Their movement was detected by satellite and reports had been received from local Georgians angered by Saakashvili's recent military actions.

According to Russian officials, they didn't expect that a key unit of Georgian intelligence trained by top NATO specialists would drive directly into their hands. The Georgian officers were overtaken without causalities.

"We knew there was a lot of negligence going on in the Georgian army, but not to this degree," one well-known, highly-positioned Russian general told me, who didn't want to reveal he is currently stationed in Georgia.

There were also three Arabs among the 20-odd Georgians. The Russian military is interrogating the officers who say they didn't intend to blow anything up. All the artillery in the vehicle was there by chance, they say. They forgot to unload the Hummers before departing. They had arrived together in such a large number to carefully study the situation in the port city.

It's likely NATO will have to re-encode their entire military and space system after the operation, which will be costly. This will certainly give them something to think about: Are closer military relations with Georgia and Ukraine really worth the hassle?

[Suppiah]

Aditya, since Narayana was talking of rebirth, I thought that would be a funny rejoinder. Anyway there is a lot of OT stuff here, mods can delete them. Would not want to add to them anymore

[renukb]

Russia tests ICBM that beats anti-ballistic missile: reports
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/00 ... 281824.htm

Moscow (PTI): Russia on Thursday launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that beats anti- ballistic missile (ABM) systems in hitting high-security facilities, media reports said.

The Topol (RS-12M) ICBM, launched from the Plesetsk cosmodrome, is equipped with features designed to defeat ABM systems. It flew 6,000 kilometres and succesfully hit a target on the Kura testing ground, in Kamchatka in Russia's Far East, the Interfax news agency said.

"The experimental combat part of the missile has hit the target on the testing ground on the Kamchatka peninsula with high precision, demonstrating an ability to effectively hit high-security facilities," Alexander Vovk, the head of the RVSN information service, was quoted as saying by Interfax.

"Experience shows the most economical and quickly achievable countermeasures against the development of a missile-defence system are so-called asymmetrical measures," he said, adding that the measures include the missile being less detectable and its path less predictable, foiling missile-detection systems.

[renukb]

Russia warns Turkey on U.S. ships in Black Sea
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/home ... .asp?scr=1

Russia said U.S. ships could only stay in the Black Sea for 21 days according to the Montreux Convention, and warned if they do not leave by then Turkey would be responsible.

Russia's deputy military chief Anatoly Nogovitsyn said the NATO warships' entrance to the Black Sea is a "serious threat to our security," Hurriyet daily reported on Thursday.

He said under the Montreux Convention, signed in 1936 on the status of the Turkish Straits, the warships can only stay in the Black Sea for 21 days.

"If the NATO ships continue to stay in the Black Sea after the expiration of 21 day-period, then I would like to remind you that Turkey would be responsible," he added.

The U.S. warships are spearheading a humanitarian aid mission to Georgia, a U.S. ally that wants to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Clashes erupted in the Caucasus after Russia responded to Georgia's military operation to regain the control in the breakaway region South Osstia.

The U.S. ships are carrying nuclear missiles that can hit Russian targets as far away as St. Petersburg, Nogovitsyn said, according to Hurriyet. Russia has dispatched its own ships to track the U.S. vessels, the newspaper said.

---------------------------

Turkey in tight spot between Russia and NATO
By Thomas Grove - Analysis

ISTANBUL (Reuters) - NATO-member Turkey is treading a fine line between its loyalty to the alliance and its economic interests in its Black Sea neighbor Russia, with some fearing Ankara could find itself at the frontline of a new Cold War.

Evidence of Turkey's dilemma in the standoff between the West and Russia over its action against Georgia was on display last week, when two U.S. ships sailed through the Istanbul Strait on their way to the Black Sea.

Russia has accused the West of stirring tensions with a NATO naval build-up in the Black Sea following a brief war between Russia and Georgia. A close U.S. ally which aspires to join the European Union, Turkey is the passage way to the sea.

During the Cold War, Turkey was NATO's southern flank, an isolated bulwark on Soviet frontiers. But since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has become Turkey's top trade partner, supplying the majority of Turkey's energy needs.

"(Current tensions) put Turkey in a very tight spot because it is under pressure from Russia and its Western allies," said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group.

"Turkey is again a frontline state like in the Cold War, but the difference now is that its dependency on Russia is much bigger," he said.

Turkey fears it is already feeling signs of a possible fallout with Moscow affecting their $38 billion trade.

Ankara has protested to Russia over trade restrictions as 10,000 Turkish trucks are being held at various Russian border crossings. Russia says inspections on Turkish trucks are due to a new customs law, but Turkish officials see darker motives.

"(Turkey) must act like a NATO member ... if it wants its place in Trans-Atlantic relations. It became a member years ago, and that means Turkey has to support the steps that NATO takes," a high-level U.S. official was quoted by Sabah daily as

Continued...

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersE ... 0420080828
--------------------------------------

Russia Plans To Cut Imports Of U.S. Meat
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1219886 ... lenews_wsj

[renukb]

Ukraine deliberately aims to aggravate relations with Russia
http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/28- ... e_russia-0

“The majority of Ukrainians support Russia. There is only one person in Ukraine who does not support the Russian Federation – this person carries the title of the Ukrainian President. This is the most important fundamental contradiction of the Ukrainian policy, not the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko opposition. This contradiction may explode Ukraine’s policy,” Sergei Markov said in an interview with Novy Region news agency.

Russia to up naval presence in Syria
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite? ... 2FShowFull

Russia plans to increase its military presence in the Mediterranean by using Syrian ports more frequently, Reuters quoted a Russian diplomat as saying on Wednesday.

"Our Navy presence in the Mediterranean will increase," Igor Belyaev, the Russian charge d'affaires, told reporters in Damascus. "Russian vessels will be visiting Syria and other friendly ports more frequently."

"The visits are continuing," he added.

The comments came despite a recent phone call between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, in which the latter reaffirmed Moscow's commitment to maintain strong ties with Jerusalem amid tensions which surfaced between the two states as a result of the conflict in Georgia.

Syrian President Bashar Assad visited Moscow last week, prompting concerns in Jerusalem that Russia might boost arms sales to Damascus. But the acting Russian ambassador to Israel categorically denied such fears.

"Why would we do that?" Anatoly Yurkov asked The Jerusalem Post, referring to a query about a Syrian request for Moscow to place the advanced Iskander missile system in its territory.

The export model of the Iskander is difficult to shoot down and has a 280-km. range. If stationed in Syria, the missiles could deliver conventional explosives to almost anywhere in Israel.

In his comments, Belyaev refused to go into detail about what was discussed and agreed upon during Assad's visit, saying only that "the two leaders gave their directions to advance ties in the economy, trade and energy fields, as well as military cooperation."

Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report

[renukb]

Miliband says "no question" of war with Russia
http://uk.reuters.com/article/topNews/i ... 6620080828

LONDON (Reuters) - There is no question of launching "all-out war" against Russia, Foreign Secretary David Miliband said on Thursday, while condemning Moscow's "invasion" of Georgia.

Miliband, asked whether NATO would go to war against Moscow if it were to attack a neighbouring country or ally again, said: "We don't want all-out war with Russia ... There's no question of launching an all-out war against Russia."

NATO is committed to the principle that an attack against one or several members would be considered an attack against all, and to defending its members against aggression. Georgia is not a NATO member but it has ambitions to join.

NATO was not an "offensive" alliance, Miliband told BBC Radio.

He said no-one ever doubted that Russia's army would defeat a much smaller Georgian military.

"The question though for Russia is whether it wants to suffer the isolation, the loss of respect and the loss of trust that comes from that," he added.

Miliband was speaking a day after he called in a speech in Ukraine for relations with Russia to be reviewed. He said Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had a responsibility not to start a new Cold War.

The foreign secretary denied that his words in Ukraine, whose ambitions to become a NATO member also anger Russia, had ratcheted up tensions between London and Moscow.

He said it was right to describe Moscow's actions in the Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as an "international crisis" that jeopardised a growing calm and stability across Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

He said there was a tit-for-tat between Georgia and Russia over the breakaway regions but "the Russian response has been to invade a neighbouring country."

[renukb]

Georgia whines.....But don't say how... The economic dependency on Russia by EU and the future partners for Russia in terms of economic partners in EAST, mainly in the energy and tech areas, could mean west can not threaten Russia with effective sanctions economically...

Punishing Russia works, says Georgia
http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_ ... 646C970322


Hu backs Russia's right to host Winter Olympics
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/olympics/2 ... 977321.htm

[enqyoob]

Putin on US soldiers in Georgia War

August 28th, 2008
Putin accuses U.S. in Georgia
Posted: 11:47 AM ET

SOCHI, Russia (CNN) — Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, insisting that his country was not responsible for the conflict with Georgia, Thursday accused the United States of orchestrating the conflict for political purposes.

In an exclusive interview with CNN in the Black Sea city of Sochi, Putin said his defense officials had given him serious reason to believe that U.S. citizens had been engaged in combat with Russian forces in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia.

The Russian premier said this implied the conflict was a Washington operation — one aimed at providing a U.S. presidential candidate with a talking point intended to distract Americans from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the struggling U.S. economy.

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino blasted Putin’s statements, saying, “To suggest that the United States orchestrated this on behalf of a political candidate just sounds not rational.”
–From CNN’s Matthew Chance

er.... The logic for invading Eyerak SOUNDED "rational" except that it was all lies, IIRC.

[renukb]

US and Russia test the waters
http://www.thetimes.co.za/News/Article.aspx?id=831543

Military vessels dock in Georgia
A US military vessel docked at a southern Georgian port yesterday, and Russia sent a missile cruiser and two other ships to another Georgian port in a show of force, as the war of words between the West and Moscow intensified over a nation devastated by war with Russia.

The dockings came a day after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recognised the two Georgian rebel territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, prompting harsh criticism from Western nations in a rare show of unanimity.

Georgia reacted yesterday by recalling all but two of its diplomats from its embassy in Moscow.

The US Coast Guard cutter Dallas, carrying 34t of humanitarian aid, docked in the Black Sea port of Batumi, south of the zone of this month’s fighting between Russia and Georgia. It avoided Georgia’s main cargo port of Poti, which is still controlled by Russian soldiers.

Zaza Gogava, head of Georgia’s joint forces command, said the port of Poti might have been mined by Russian forces and several Georgian ships there had been sunk by the Russians.

Poti’s port was reportedly ransacked by the Russians, who want to degrade Georgia’s military capabilities.

Russian troops have established checkpoints on the northern approach to the city and a US ship docking there might have been seen as a direct challenge.

The Russian missile cruiser Moskva and two smaller missile boats anchored at the port in Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia, about 290km north of Batumi.

The Russian navy said the ships would be involved in “peacekeeping” operations.

Though Western nations have called the Russian military presence in Poti a clear violation of an EU-brokered cease-fire, a Russian general has called the US’s use of warships to deliver aid “devilish”.

Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn warned Western nations against sending more ships.

“We cannot accept these violations of international law ... of a territory, by neighboring country,” said French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel pressed yesterday for Russia to honour its word and pull its troops out of Georgia.

[renukb]

Developments in the Georgia and Russia conflict
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/worl ... ments.html

2:03 p.m. August 27, 2008
A look at developments Wednesday in Georgia crisis:
U.S. Coast Guard ship carrying humanitarian aid docks at Georgia's Black Sea port of Batumi, avoiding port of Poti, still controlled by Russian troops.

Russian missile cruiser Moskva and two missile boats anchor at Sukhumi, capital of breakaway Abkhazia. Russian general warns West against sending more warships to Black Sea.

Georgia recalls all but two diplomats from embassy in Moscow over Kremlin's recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states.

Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze says war with Russia caused about $1 billion in damage but did not fundamentally undermine his small country's economy.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel presses Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in phone call to immediately fulfill European Union-mediated cease-fire by pulling all troops out of Georgia.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband says Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has “big responsibility not to start” new Cold War.

Russian envoy warns former Soviet state of Moldova to avoid “bloody and catastrophic trend of events” in separatist region, pointing to example of Georgia.

Ukrainian President Viktor A. Yushchenko says Russian invasion of Georgia shows NATO membership is only guarantee for his country's independence.

Key civil nuclear agreement between Russia and U.S. likely to be shelved until at least next year.

Russia says it could cut poultry and pork import quotas by hundreds of thousands of tons, move likely to have significant impact on U.S. poultry producers.

[renukb]

Military help for Georgia is a 'declaration of war', says Moscow in extraordinary warning to the West

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldne ... -West.html

Moscow has issued an extraordinary warning to the West that military assistance to Georgia for use against South Ossetia or Abkhazia would be viewed as a "declaration of war" by Russia.

The extreme rhetoric from the Kremlin's envoy to NATO came as President Dmitry Medvedev stressed he will make a military response to US missile defence installations in eastern Europe, sending new shudders across countries whose people were once blighted by the Iron Curtain.

And Moscow also emphasised it was closely monitoring what it claims is a build-up of NATO firepower in the Black Sea.

The incendiary warning on Western military involvement in Georgia - where NATO nations have long played a role in training and equipping the small state - came in an interview with Dmitry Rogozin, a former nationalist politician who is now ambassador to the North Atlantic Alliance.

"If NATO suddenly takes military actions against Abkhazia and South Ossetia, acting solely in support of Tbilisi, this will mean a declaration of war on Russia," he stated.

Yesterday likened the current world crisis to the fevered atmosphere before the start of the First World War.

Rogozin said he did not believe the crisis would descend to war between the West and Russia.

But his use of such intemperate language will be seen as dowsing a fire with petrol.

Top military figure Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Studies in Moscow, alleged that the US and NATO had been arming Georgia as a dress rehearsal for a future military operation in Iran.

"We are close to a serious conflict - U.S. and NATO preparations on a strategic scale are ongoing. In the operation the West conducted on Georgian soil against Russia - South Ossetians were the victims or hostages of it - we can see a rehearsal for an attack on Iran. "

He claimed Washington was fine tuning a new type of warfare and that the threat of an attack on Iran was growing by the day bringing "chaos and instability" in its wake.

With the real architect of the worsening Georgian conflict - prime minister Vladimir Putin - remaining in the background, Medvedev followed up on Rogozin's broadside with a threat to use the Russian military machine to respond to the deployment of the American anti-missile defence system in Poland and the Czech republic.

Poland agreed this month to place ten interceptor missiles on its territory, and Moscow has already hinted it would become a nuclear target for Russia in the event of conflict.

"These missiles are close to our borders and constitute a threat to us," Medvedev told Al-Jazeera television. "This will create additional tension and we will have to respond to it in some way, naturally using military means."


The Russian president said that offering NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine, two former Soviet republics, would only aggravate the situation.

Moscow has consistently expressed its opposition to the U.S. missile shield, saying it threatens its national security.

The U.S. claims the shield is designed to thwart missile attacks by what it calls "rogue states," including Iran.

Meanwhile, Russia - seen by the West as flouting international law - today demanded NATO abide by an obscure agreement signed before the Second World War limiting its warships in the Black Sea.

Russian ambassador to NATO Dmitry Rogozin
"In light of the build-up of NATO naval forces in the Black Sea, our fleet has also taken on the task of monitoring their activities," said hawkish deputy head of Russia's general staff, Anatoly Nogovitsyn.

The Montreux Convention, as it is called, sets a weight restriction of 45,000 tonnes on the number of warships that countries outside the Black Sea region can deploy in the basin.

"Can NATO indefinitely build up its forces and means there? It turns out it cannot," said Nogovitsyn.

NATO has said it is undertaking pre-arranged exercises in the Black Sea involving US, German, Spanish and Polish ships. Two other US warships sailed to Georgian waters with humanitarian aid.

Georgia is poised to sever diplomatic relations with Russia, or reduce them to a bare minimum.

"We will drastically cut our diplomatic ties with Russia," said a top official.

President Mikhail Saakashvili said he was frightened to leave Georgia to attend the EU summit on the crisis.

"If I leave Georgia, the Russians will close our airspace and prevent me from returning home," he said.

Russia sought Chinese backing for its action - but the Communist regime in Beijing appeared reluctant to offer support, instead issuing a statement saying it was "concerned" about recent developments.

NATO called for Russia to reverse its decision on recognition for the two enclaves, both Georgian under international law.

But the new 'president' of South Ossetia, Eduard Kokoyty, called for Russian military bases on his territory.

French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner warned today that an marauding Russian bear could trample over other ex-Soviet states.

"That is very dangerous," he said, pointing at Ukraine and Moldova.

[renukb]

Medvedev Seeks Support From China, Allies on Georgia (Update3)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Putin says missile tests were response to NATO's actions
http://www.turkishweekly.net/news.php?id=58885

"There is no need to fear Russia's actions, they are not aggressive... They are aimed at maintaining balance in the world order, and are extremely important for maintaining peace and security globally," Putin said.

Russia conducted successful tests this week of a new ballistic missile with MIRV and a cruise missile allegedly capable of penetrating any operational and future missile defenses.

"We conducted a test of a new strategic ballistic missile with multiple warheads, and of a new cruise missile, and will continue to improve our resources," Putin said.

Russia, concerned over Europe's refusal to ratify the re-drafted version of the accord, and acceptance by certain EU states of U.S. missile shield plans on the continent, proposed on Monday holding an emergency CFE conference in Vienna on June 12-15.

"We are fully observing the provisions of the [CFE] treaty and have pulled out all heavy weaponry from the European part of Russia. We have reduced our armed forces by 300,000 personnel in the past few years, but what about our partners?" Putin said.

"They are inundating eastern Europe with new weapons - a new base in Bulgaria, another base in Romania, a [missile interceptor] site in Poland, a radar in the Czech Republic," the president said. "What are we supposed to do? We cannot just observe all this and continue to keep our obligations under the treaty."

[renukb]

White House: 'Premature' to discuss US sanctions on Russia
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iXc ... 6JzbOd2lFg

2 hours ago

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The White House said Thursday it was reviewing the US-Russia relationship given the Georgia crisis but that it was "premature" to say whether it would impose sanctions on Moscow.

"We're reviewing our relationship with Russia in light of the situation in Georgia, but it's premature to discuss what actions the United States may or may not take," said spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

"Our focus is on providing humanitarian assistance to the people of Georgia and on Russian compliance with the ceasefire agreement" brokered by France, which holds the rotating European Union presidency, said the spokesman.

Johndroe's comments came after French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that some EU states were considering imposing sanctions on Russia when they hold an emergency summit next week on the crisis in Georgia.

"Sanctions are being considered, and many other means" at next Monday's meeting in Brussels, Kouchner said, the first time that Paris evoked the possibility of sanctions against Moscow.

Fighting between Georgia and Russia erupted August 8 after the Georgian army launched an offensive to bring South Ossetia, which broke away in the early 1990s, back under government control.

Russia has since halted its five-day long offensive into neighboring Georgia but has failed to withdraw all its troops from Georgian territory.

[sraj]

Stratfor Analysis: Kosovo Independence at the Heart of Georgia Russia Crisis

The Russian empire — czarist and Soviet — expanded to its borders in the 17th and 19th centuries. It collapsed in 1992. The Western powers wanted to make the disintegration permanent. It was inevitable that Russia would, in due course, want to reassert its claims. That it happened in Georgia was simply the result of circumstance.

Moscow did not have to concern itself with the potential response of the United States or Europe; hence, the invasion did not shift the balance of power. The balance of power had already shifted, and it was up to the Russians when to make this public. They did that Aug. 8.

By invading Georgia as Russia did (competently if not brilliantly), Putin re-established the credibility of the Russian army. But far more importantly, by doing this Putin revealed an open secret: While the United States is tied down in the Middle East, American guarantees have no value. This lesson is not for American consumption. It is something that, from the Russian point of view, the Ukrainians, the Balts and the Central Asians need to digest. Indeed, it is a lesson Putin wants to transmit to Poland and the Czech Republic as well. The United States wants to place ballistic missile defense installations in those countries, and the Russians want them to understand that allowing this to happen increases their risk, not their security.

The war was far from a surprise; it has been building for months. But the geopolitical foundations of the war have been building since 1992. Russia has been an empire for centuries. The last 15 years or so were not the new reality, but simply an aberration that would be rectified. And now it is being rectified.

[ramana]

Maybe the October surprise was moved up to August and from Middle East to Central Asia?

[renukb]

If Russia Sticks to its guns and holds strong, the play ground is still ME for US and the west...

[renukb]

Smart Chinese looking for more brownies from the west and US....Or is it the media?...Perhaps China just keeping mum by giving lipservices?

US welcomes China's apparent refusal to back Russian action
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jdF ... p90uFYRwug

[renukb]

Russian and US warships engaged in Black Sea stand-off
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/fro ... 55783.html

"Normally battleships do not deliver aid and this is battleship diplomacy, this does not make the situation more stable," said Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.

Putin accuses U.S. of orchestrating Georgian war
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08 ... pstoryview

"U.S. citizens were indeed in the area in conflict," Putin said. "They were acting in implementing those orders doing as they were ordered, and the only one who can give such orders is their leader."

[Kakkaji]

Georgia War Shows Russia Army Now a `Force to Be Reckoned With'

From the above link:

A day earlier, Putin urged Parliament to keep increasing spending because ``only a battle-ready, well-equipped military with strong morale can defend'' Russia's ``sovereignty and integrity.''

I wish India had a leader like Putin.

[Johann]

- The Russian army has a long, long way to go before its conventional forces are even a shadow of what they were in the Cold War.

Embedded journalists saw a very high rate of mechanical breakdowns, particularly among armoured units. This was not a particularly better performance on air or ground than the second go-around in Chechnya in 1999-2000. Morale was higher than in Chechnya because hardly anyone was shooting at them.

The Russian Army still has the problem of platforms that are on average 30-40 years old, and a *very* slow rate of replacement. Even the Soviets could not afford to quickly and frequently and re-equip an army as big as that. Same problem with replacing draftees with volunteers - very slow. Thats OK in small, low intensity conflicts, but will be severely challenged in anything more serious.

- Russia, like the Soviet Union in Afghanistan is surprised at just how little diplomatic support it enjoys. The lower the diplomatic support among its trading partners today, the higher the economic costs of the war. Forex levels are down, investment is down, the stock market is down. The Russians are going to look for ways to reconcile without seeming to climb down. I expect Russian forces will leave areas outside the immediate perimeter of Abkhazia and S.Ossetia in the next few months.

- The building naval confrontation in the Black Sea is going to produce some cold war style bumps and bent fenders, nothing more.

[John Snow]

I like Johaan's "predictably optimistic" out look about Russian failures and short comings!

[Kati]

The chicken uvacha:

President Mikhail Saakashvili said he was frightened to leave Georgia to attend the EU summit on the crisis.

"If I leave Georgia, the Russians will close our airspace and prevent me from returning home," he said.

[Kakkaji]

- The Russian army has a long, long way to go before its conventional forces are even a shadow of what they were in the Cold War.

Embedded journalists saw a very high rate of mechanical breakdowns, particularly among armoured units.

Were there any western 'embedded journalists' with the Russian forces in Georgia? I am surprised Russia allowed that.

[Johann]

Kakkaji,

The Russians have been far more media savvy than at any time in the last generation - I think that's Medvedev's doing.

On the whole the embeds have produced far more positive than negative coverage for the Russians. Journalists are very predictable - they are always grateful to anyone who gives them access to a big story, and a war is always a big story.

Spinster,

Talk to the Russian Ground Force (SV) officers, and they'll tell you the same things. The Strategic Rocket Forces (RVSN) have been the senior service ever since their formation in 1959.

During the Cold War the SV although secondary were still well taken care of. Post-collapse, the SV like all the other services were starved in order to keep the RVSN reasonably healthy. With oil revenues coming in the SV is no longer on a starvation diet, but its still going hungry, particularly when comes to capital expenditure outside housing.

The vast bulk of Putin's defence bump are going to strategic forces and the intelligence services. The next biggest bump is to the special forces and internal security troops. The bulk of the SV is still struggling towards health. Enough for a Georgia that was stupid enough to think that it could take S. Ossetia without fighting Russia, but not for more serious conflicts. Even in Chechnya, the cutting edge of fighting forces are not the Russian Army, but Chechens who the FSB has succeeded in convincing to switch sides.

[prabir]

Russians do not need to get into a full-fledged war with NATO. They only need to play their cards like master players of chess. They have enough ways of inflicting asymmetric damage to NATO.

No one will ever dare to enter into a full-fledged conventional war with Russia because asymmetric response can make things very dirty. So, there is no need for Russians to repeat old mistakes like,

-- Striving for conventional parity
-- Eye for an eye

They need to exploit the fact that NATO is not really a homogenious alliance (Democracies can never think and act in unison). They will always have their supporters in NATO who do not want a full scale war. During cold war, it was a threat of communism. That threat was exploited by defense lobby.

All the Russians will do is:

-- Appear to protect their red lines / Actually protect their red lines.
-- Have a deterence that makes the cost very very high
-- Diversify their economy (they are really good in inventing new technologies)
-- Keep the nationalistic flame burning within their own people

I think, the clock will turn back, where, US continues to over spend on Defence by borrowing money and reaches an unsustainable deficit.