India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

RajeshA
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 02 Sep 2008 19:56

NSG sceptics say they are under pressure over India waiver : IANS

‘We are under pressure to agree to an acceptable compromise at the September 4-5 meeting,’ a diplomat from one of the six countries opposed to a ‘clean waiver’ for India said on condition of anonymity


Putting Pressure is totally wrong and against forming a dispassionate and objective opinion and free thinking (freie Meinungsbildung). Kant and Hegel will turn in their graves ... It is a black day for Europe. :mrgreen:
Last edited by RajeshA on 02 Sep 2008 20:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 02 Sep 2008 20:08

Lalmohan wrote:I am with N on this, the US will ensure that the vote is a done deal - it will be a foreign policy capstone for Bush. The senate's endorsement cannot be far behind. The smaller countries need a bit of air time to demonstrate their morals and integrity to everyone and then it will be business as usual


Upcoming elections make NZ and Austria into wild cards. I can remember how Gerhard Schröder turned 2002 Elections into his favor by standing up to USA on Iraq. Helen Clark and Ursula Plassnik could interpret this as their Joan of Arc Moment.

When Elections are there, a candidate is looking for exactly these moments, where a Goliath is putting on the pressure, and the little David stands up for his principles.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 02 Sep 2008 20:29

India partner, not rival, says China on NSG meet eve: IANS

NEW DELHI/BEIJING: Amid reports of Beijing's reservations about the nuclear deal, China Tuesday announced Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi's forthcoming visit to India and underlined that the two countries are "partners, rather than rivals".

The three-day visit beginning Sunday was announced in New Delhi and Beijing by the foreign office of the two countries. This will be Yang's first visit to India since becoming foreign minister in April last year.

"China and India are friendly neighbours, and both are large developing countries. The two sides have reached consensus that they were cooperative partners of mutual benefit, rather than rivals," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told reporters in Beijing.

Alluding to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's successful visit to China early this year, she said the visit that led to the signing of a strategic joint statement, "A Shared Vision for the 21st Century", marked an important step in improving relations.

Beijing's assurance about its commitment to develop strategic ties with India comes close on the heels of critical remarks in the People's Daily - the mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party - attacking the India-US nuclear deal as a major blow "to the international non-proliferation regime".

India is, however, hopeful that China will not risk its growing relations with New Delhi by playing the spoiler in the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) when it meets Thursday to consider a waiver to resume global nuclear commerce with India.


Chinese leadership split over backing N-deal at NSG by Saibal Dasgupta: TOI
BEIJING: Indications of differences within the Chinese leadership over the India-US nuclear deal became evident when the country's foreign ministry on Tuesday refused to endorse the criticism of the deal expressed by the Communist Party's main newspaper on Monday. ( Watch )

Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Jiang Yu seemed to suggest Beijing was prepared to consider supporting the deal at the coming meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group if the "relevant countries" provide the necessary assurances on nuclear safeguards.

She said she has not read the article that appeared in Monday's edition of the People's Daily .

"China hopes the NSG finds a way to strike a balance between nuclear non-proliferation and the peaceful use of energy," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang said at a press conference indicating that Beijing was looking for modifications in the deal to make it more palatable.

The Chinese military brass and certain hawks in the Communist Party are known to be opposed to the India-US deal. But several leaders at the helm of affairs feel that opposing the deal at the NSG meeting will have far-reaching affect on India-China relationship.

Jiang said China expects the "relevant countries" would be able to "safeguard the effectiveness of the international non-proliferation regime". She seemed to suggest that China would be happy with some more assurances that the spirit of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty would be safeguarded even if India did not actually sign it, observers said.

She also reiterated the earlier stance of her government when she said that that all countries have the "right to peacefully use nuclear energy and conduct international cooperation in line with the non-proliferation obligation." China would continue to play the "positive role" that it has been playing at meetings of the NSG, she said.

The foreign ministry's statement suggests that Beijing is caught is a dilemma and is far from arriving at a final decision on its stand at the NSG. It may prefer to watch the responses of other members in the 45-member group before opening its cards at the meeting in Vienna on September 4 and 5, observers said.

China's attitude at the NSG might influence the outcome of the three-day visit by Chinese foreign minister Yang Jiechi starting September 6. Jiang confirmed that Yang will meet External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee besides opening the Chinese consulate office in Kolkata.

The spokesperson said that the mutual trust between China and India had deepened since the successful visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Beijing in January. The two countries are committed to further developing "strategic partnership" while maintaining their neighbourly and friendly relationship, she said.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 02 Sep 2008 20:44

The town drunk rambleth:
‘We are under pressure to agree to an acceptable compromise at the September 4-5 meeting,’ a diplomat from one of the six countries opposed to a ‘clean waiver’ for India said on condition of anonymity
:rotfl:

The "pressure" I may add, is most probably NOT coming from US or India, but from all the big Nuclear Suppliers. The Australian Navy is probably getting ready for the invasion of South Island.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 02 Sep 2008 20:55

There is no dilemma/vilemma in the PRC. The PLA represents the hardliners and they are the ones who call the shots and did the proliferation to TSP as hedging agaisnt a rising India which was unsure of its own future. The Chinese Foreign Minsitry are the "dove" and they advocate the soft line and want to soothe the Indians while the PLA sharpens the knives. This dilemma/split is all for show. Not much to read into it.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby harbans » 02 Sep 2008 21:08

We are under pressure to agree to an acceptable compromise at the September 4-5 meeting,’ a diplomat from one of the six countries opposed to a ‘clean waiver’ for India said on condition of anonymity


There's a tinge on pathos. It must be a bit of a downgrade for some of these countries used to feeding a diet of patronizing lectures on Indian poverty, malnutrition, proliferation, caste system, Hindu extremism that the opposite is happening. There's a massive pshychological change that usually undergoes with this pressure..i can imagine hardline pressure being applied to these colonial vestiges and their inability to reply back in terms of poverty, caste etc. They're being shown and told that India is now NWS with this, that their thinking of bonding India with Pak, NK Iran, Libya is bogus. If the US manages to twist their arms, then we'll witness a nassive psychological change in their approaches to India.

Yhis deal is extremely important for the US..it's decided to knock of Iran and Paki nukes for sure. India has to be on board for them to do this. Irans going to be bombed immediately after this passes through Congress..perfect timing.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 02 Sep 2008 21:21

harbans wrote:
We are under pressure to agree to an acceptable compromise at the September 4-5 meeting,’ a diplomat from one of the six countries opposed to a ‘clean waiver’ for India said on condition of anonymity


There's a tinge on pathos. It must be a bit of a downgrade for some of these countries used to feeding a diet of patronizing lectures on Indian poverty, malnutrition, proliferation, caste system, Hindu extremism that the opposite is happening. There's a massive pshychological change that usually undergoes with this pressure..i can imagine hardline pressure being applied to these colonial vestiges and their inability to reply back in terms of poverty, caste etc. They're being shown and told that India is now NWS with this, that their thinking of bonding India with Pak, NK Iran, Libya is bogus. If the US manages to twist their arms, then we'll witness a nassive psychological change in their approaches to India.

Yhis deal is extremely important for the US..it's decided to knock of Iran and Paki nukes for sure. India has to be on board for them to do this. Irans going to be bombed immediately after this passes through Congress..perfect timing.


Harbans Ji,
We are on the same wavelength on this one. :)

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 02 Sep 2008 21:37

India has been misled: Yashwant Sinha: Timesnow.tv

In addition to the growing opposition from China and other member countries ahead of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meet, the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has come out strongly slamming the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) for misleading India on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha has criticised the government's efforts to pass the Indo-US nuclear deal at the NSG, saying that all the hype over the nuclear deal, including the trust vote was completely unnecessary.

Sinha also pointed out that the US has been misleading India over the nuclear deal for the last three years since the deal has been in progress and that it was highly humiliating for India to face to inspection by the NSG.


Gatecrashing into other people's parties (and clubs, and groups) does take a toll on the H&D.

MMS sings:
Duniya men hum aaye hain, to jeena bhi paRhega|
NSG hai agar Zehar to peena bhi paRhega|

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 02 Sep 2008 21:40

harabans ad RajeshA and any others,

After the POKI test, India was setup as the poster child/whipping boy and set-up as an example of what would happen if the NPT was breached. All sort of bile and pseudo-intellectual analysis was put up on India. A whole set on non -treaties were setup to corrall and keep India isolated. Please see the chronology of the PRC proliferation and the US silent acquiesence in that. So long as the PRC-TSP nexus was proliferating and running terror campaigns against India it was all peachy. All these six countries among others were part of that scam and no need to feel pathos for these scoundrels. Google has lots of info on that if you want to know more.

if TPS hadnt tested in 1998 this nexus would not be revealed and India would still be the target of those three and four letter dispensations.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 02 Sep 2008 21:45

ramana wrote:harabans ad RajeshA and any others,

After the POKI test, India was setup as the poster child/whipping boy and set-up as an example of what would happen if the NPT was breached. All sort of bile and pseudo-intellectual analysis was put up on India. A whole set on non -treaties were setup to corrall and keep India isolated. Please see the chronology of the PRC proliferation and the US silent acquiesence in that. So long as the PRC-TSP nexus was proliferating and running terror campaigns against India it was all peachy. All these six countries among others were part of that scam and no need to feel pathos for these scoundrels. Google has lots of info on that if you want to know more.

if TPS hadnt tested in 1998 this nexus would not be revealed and India would still be the target of those three and four letter dispensations.


Ramana Ji,
while you are at giving us some tips, may be you could look into my previous application :)
Question for the Gurus here:

Can somebody please recommend some online treatise on India's historical experience with NPT and CTBT, especially in the embryonic phase of these treaties, and our opposition to these.

Thanks in advance.


Google Search has not been satisfactory up till now. :oops:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 02 Sep 2008 22:12

The first UN Disarmament Conf was in 1954 timeframe soon after the British tests. India proposed the test ban treaty to limit the further nuke powers and a comprehensive disramament plan. Off course it was rejected there were others in the wings. Every year at the Disarmament Conf., India wold propose the same measures.
In order to limit radioactive fallout and to limit the emergence of new powers, the Partial Test Ban Treaty(PTBT) was created in 1963. This prevented the testing in space, sea and air. UG testing is quite a sophisticated achievement- needs instruments and techniques to verify the blast. India signed this for they knew whats needed and it limits newbie powers.

In 1965, President L.B. Johnson instituted the Gilpatric Commission to study the issue of N+1 country problem of nuke weapons. The Gilpatric Commission studied the problem from a lot of angles and concluded that it was not in the US interests to have more nuke powers. The US worked with the existing unke weapon powers and theNPT came into being with the clause that those countries that had tested before 1968 would be called NWS. India was always known to have the capability to develop nuke weapons. The literature of the 1950s is replete with this conclusion( Lester Beatty, John Maddox etc.). The way out was the non-signature of the NPT as the Treaty on Conventions in Vienna in 1954 stated that a treaty cannot be imposed if one doesnt sign it. This was to avoid some of the main causes of the WWII. What India does TSP copies due to equal-equal. And then Israel also did not sign it.

After end of Cold War it was thought by the powers that be that a test ban treaty(CTBT) is good to have to prevent future breakouts. This time the CTBT did not have the opt out clause but that it would come into force with India having to sign it. So it had the coercive clause that was absent in the NPT. So India did not sign it and later tested when they could. US signed it with great fanfare but the US Senate never ratified it. I think once the FMCO and the defacto CTBT are in place, the US will test.

The FMCO is in discussion now. The US wants an unverifiable treaty so as to keep ambiguity of some nations as to how much they have and no inspections. The problem is it doesnt address further production to augment the stocks and clandestine transfers like PRC did to TSP. In fact it permits them by not talking about it. And it comes into effect when the five NWS sign it and all have to adhere to it. Again the coercive clause.

To get an idea of India's stance google for stuff by Late Sri. B. Udgaonkar.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 02 Sep 2008 22:24

Thank you, Ramana Ji,

That would be useful in my ongoing email correspondence with some Austrian 'Friends'. :)

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Sean » 03 Sep 2008 00:08

From NDTV.com.
NSG likely to make a decision this week.
Amidst speculation that the India specific waiver may not come through in this week's scheduled meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a heavyweight member of this global nuclear club that controls all nuclear commerce has told NDTV that "nobody is planning for another meeting" and the understanding was that "it will be finished in this meeting".

Speaking in anonymity, the diplomat said there is "no opposition" to the Indian waiver, but some countries had expressed "concerns", which according to this influential Vienna insider, "now it was really up to the Americans to address and assuage" these concerns.

On being asked whether the outcome will be favourable for this Indo-American initiative or not the diplomat said one has to be either very stupid or a genius to speculate on the outcome at this stage.
Indian officials on their part have made it clear, "We certainly can't tell the member countries of NSG what to do, but we can take our own view if the waiver is not clean, clear and unconditional."

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 03 Sep 2008 00:17

From above post
Speaking in anonymity, the diplomat said there is "no opposition" to the Indian waiver, but some countries had expressed "concerns", which according to this influential Vienna insider, "now it was really up to the Americans to address and assuage" these concerns.


and

Indian officials on their part have made it clear, "We certainly can't tell the member countries of NSG what to do, but we can take our own view if the waiver is not clean, clear and unconditional."




The 'senior/Vienna insider" diplomat is saying the waiver language is what India wants but there is relcutance on part of some of the "holier than thou" cats.(ref to the saying "sau chooye kha kar billi haj gayi /After eating a houndred mice the cat went on a pilgrimage!")

The US will have to assure the reluctant six that they will operationalize/enforce the Hyde Act in case of a test by India and not go by the Bush scribblings. This is the case any way for the Republicans wont come back to power for quite sometime!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 01:08

We're Not A Rogue State by K Subrahmanyam: TOI

Two nuclear weapon powers between whom a proliferation relationship exists share their borders with India. The non-proliferation community failed to take action when that proliferation took place in the 80s and the 90s. Pakistan officially claims that its arsenal is India-specific. In these circumstances there can be no question of India joining the NPT as a non-nuclear weapon state. The founders of NSG, therefore, felt that making India a stakeholder in the non-proliferation regime, in view of its advanced nuclear technology and its non-proliferation record, will further promote non-proliferation.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 01:21

Governor General, Anand Satyanand, heads to India amid nuke impasse by MICHAEL FIELD: Stuff.co.nz

Governor-General Anand Satyanand is heading into a diplomatic firestorm in India amidst growing anger in New Delhi that New Zealand is holding up a major India-US nuclear pact.

It has been a delicate issue in Auckland where the nationalistic Indian vote is important and in a statement last week Disarmament Minister Phil Goff claimed the NSG discussions were "robust and constructive".


All Politics is Local! :D

I mentioned some time earlier, earlier, earlier and earlier that this nationalistic Indian vote, should be nurtured.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 01:32

As NSG members mull new U.S. draft, fate of India deal hangs in balance by Siddharth Varadarajan: Hindu

But, say Indian officials, its smooth passage through this week’s extraordinary plenary can only be assured if one condition is satisfied: Washington must act at the highest political level to convince hold-out countries that backing the deal is in their best interest.

Asked for his assessment of the new draft, a senior official from a European country said there are “a number of changes which do reflect the objectives if not the substance of the amendments many countries had proposed.” The last time the NSG met to consider the issue, said the official, there had been a very rich discussion. “Having noted the suggestions that came up on August 21 and 22, the U.S. took it upon itself to try their hand at a second draft.” The draft was posted on the password-protected NSG intranet last Saturday but many member states only began studying the text on Monday. “I suspect many capitals are still going through it to see if the new draft more or less conforms to the fullness of our discussions last month,” he added.

The official described the NSG’s deliberations on the American proposal as “normal.” “I wouldn’t say there is anything dramatic going on ... It is just like any multilateral diplomatic process that requires consensus for a decision to be reached.” Declining to identify any concerns which might have gone unaddressed in the new draft, he said it was clear the NSG was making progress. “Of course, I can’t say if this week’s meeting will be our last one on the issue ... That will become clear only after we see the body language on Thursday.”

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 03 Sep 2008 01:43

Herr RajeshA, was Sie ist, in Deutschland tuend. Werden Sie ein Berater in Neuem Zealand. Oder halten Sie das Fort in Deutschland?

Better to send a person with an Indian name than the Captain of the Kiwi Cricket team I guess. I think India should hold him as hostage. :x

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 02:11

NRao wrote:Herr RajeshA, was Sie ist, in Deutschland tuend. Werden Sie ein Berater in Neuem Zealand. Oder halten Sie das Fort in Deutschland?

Wie Recht Sie haben, NRao Ji. Ich halte die Stellung in Deutchland. Neuseeland habe ich der Verwandschaft überlassen.
Die Familie spielt gern Risiko. :D
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 03 Sep 2008 02:24

Thats it. First Pingreji and now Deutch. Please stick to English. OK?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby sivab » 03 Sep 2008 04:47

http://ia.rediff.com/news/2008/sep/02pmus.htm

PM on 10-day tour to US, France from Sept 22

After attending the UNGA session, the prime minister will visit Washington and meet President George W Bush [Images], probably to celebrate the progress of Indo-US civil nuclear co-operation deal
.

:shock:
Looks like MMS has been assured by GB 400% onlee ...

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby sraj » 03 Sep 2008 04:52

Reuters News Item
The Arms Control Association made public on Tuesday a document in which the State Department answered questions from a senior U.S. congressman concerned with how the India nuclear deal squared with U.S. nonproliferation laws.

The legal and technical questions were submitted in October and the replies came in February, but were held under wraps, apparently because the U.S. answers differed from Indian interpretations of what the deal allows for, one expert said.

"There still exists a gap in the expectations or the interpretations of this deal, both from the Indian side and the U.S. side," said Sharon Squassoni, a nonproliferation expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

For example, the official U.S. reply to the question of what would happen if India were to test a nuclear weapon was that a test would give Washington the right "to cease all nuclear cooperation with India immediately, including the supply of fuel, as well as to request the return of any items transferred from the United States."

"It's doubtful that the Indian government agrees with that interpretation," said Squassoni. She said there were similar potential disputes over the scope of nuclear cooperation and fuel supply assurances and said the group must clarify all gaps.

Has anyone been able to locate these answers? Surprisingly, they don't seem to be on the ACA website.

The State Dept had requested the US Congress not to release these replies.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 03 Sep 2008 05:34

sraj,

No use chasing that doc any more. Uncle wants the Hyde Act to be the base for all deals with India. The Hyde Act has been sold as the "conditions" to the NSG members. The 6-pack did not get that memo.

Googled results indicate that there is a huge gap between India and the US when it comes to interpreting either the Hyde Act or the 123 - what else is new. India is the King with the clothes, clothes no one else is willing to notice. Except the Prez of the US. As long as the Prez sees the clothes is all that matters. The US Congress looks at the Prez, he says the clothes are not there and the US Congress goes into recess. The loop repeats.

Here on out ALL these docs have no meaning, none.

When India has enough "credible" deterrence, she will prove, and ................. By then Iran will also join the group.

_____________________________

Ramana,

Sorry. Was trying to see if I could get RA to move to NZ. Need someone to invade that place. You see NZiets know Zulu, not German. But now that MMS is going to DC, I need to postpone this invasion.

Also, just noticed the problem with this NSG deal ------------ no BRiets in these countries as far as I can determine.


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 03 Sep 2008 05:41

Here is the latest (July 30, 2008) CRS: U.S. Nuclear Cooperation with India: Issues for Congress

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Gerard » 03 Sep 2008 05:43

A Secondary Role for U.S. in India's Nuclear Future
Four months before India shocked the world by conducting underground nuclear tests in 1998, French President Jacques Chirac visited India, bringing along 100 business leaders and meeting with Indian p olicymakers and industrialists.

At one meeting, Chirac surprised the Indians: "He said, 'France would fully understand if India conducted nuclear tests. We will be with you,' " recalled Tarun Das, chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industry, a business lobby that received the French delegates.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 03 Sep 2008 05:48

Very interesting and timely article in the Wash Post (wow). Will NSG survive, if a clean waiver is not given?

A Secondary Role for U.S. in India's Nuclear Future

Signin required.

By Rama Lakshmi
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, September 2, 2008; A12



NEW DELHI -- Four months before India shocked the world by conducting underground nuclear tests in 1998, French President Jacques Chirac visited India, bringing along 100 business leaders and meeting with Indian p olicymakers and industrialists.

At one meeting, Chirac surprised the Indians: "He said, 'France would fully understand if India conducted nuclear tests. We will be with you,' " recalled Tarun Das, chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industry, a business lobby that received the French delegates.

France has a long history of working closely with India's nuclear industry, as does Russia, Das noted. But American nuclear companies have been unable to do business in India since 1974, when trade restrictions went into effect after New Delhi tested its first atomic device.

Now, a historic civilian nuclear deal between India and the United States will allow American companies to return and will lift restrictions on other countries' sales of nuclear technology and fuel to India.

France and Russia "come at the head of the queue for business contracts from the nuclear deal now," Das said. "But let us not forget it is a very, very long line behind. And Americans and others are the long line behind."

Beyond shrill political statements, climate change and proclaimed foreign policy triumphs, the nuclear energy agreement is also about business worth more than $100 billion over about two decades and potentially tens of thousands of jobs in the United States and India. American companies hope to get a sizable slice of the Indian nuclear pie and land big contracts in defense and aerospace.

The accord is on track to be approved this week by the 45-country Nuclear Suppliers Group, which governs the world's trade in nuclear materials.

But many officials and experts in both countries say that even after the political and diplomatic hurdles are cleared, contracts for U.S. companies will not be given out immediately. The first round of contracts after the suppliers group's approval will probably go to France and Russia, they say. A delay in U.S. ratification of the agreement, a lack of liability laws in India and the disquieting memory of severed nuclear ties would probably slow things down for the Americans.

Because of a severe shortage of uranium, many of India's 17 nuclear reactors are operating at 40 percent of capacity. About 30 reactors are expected to be built by 2030 in the energy-starved country.

Nuclear experts in India and the United States say India has given informal approval to government-owned companies in Russia and France to build six to eight reactors in the near term.

"It is not right to say that France and Russia have been given the sites for reactors. But it is not wrong either," said Sudhinder Thakur, executive director of the Nuclear Power Corp. of India, a state-owned company that has a monopoly on nuclear power generation in India. "It is known that we have commenced preparatory work of land acquisition and infrastructure building at four places. We have enjoyed long-term cooperation with Russians and French."

When some American delegations asked for a similar declaration of support, India would give only verbal assurances. Such agreements with American firms would have been politically inflammatory in India because of opposition to the nuclear deal based on Cold War-era wariness toward the United States.

Meanwhile, American energy heavyweights such as General Electric are losing the critical competitive edge of time to France's Areva and Russia's Rosatom as the deal awaits ratification by the U.S. Congress. GE built and helped run India's first nuclear plant at Tarapur, near Mumbai, but pulled out in 1974.

But perhaps the biggest barrier for the Americans is the lack of clear nuclear liability laws in India in the event of an accident.

"Our nuclear industry was in the government sector until now. And we did business with other government companies in Russia and France. Decision-making, regulatory processes were not transparent at all," said V. Raghuraman, principal energy policy adviser at the Confederation of Indian Industry, which spearheaded advocacy for the deal.

American business delegations to India have repeatedly said that unless protected under liability laws, U.S. companies would find it impossible to sell reactors in India.

"American companies are always concerned about lawsuits in U.S. courts and liability issues," said Omer Brown, a lawyer working to promote a new international legal framework for nuclear incidents, called the Convention on Supplementary Compensation. "It is more of an issue for American private nuclear companies. State-owned French and Russian nuclear companies, which have sovereign immunity, can walk away and pay nothing."

The convention is meant to cover nuclear accident claims and provide a global fund to pay victims. It will activate after five or more countries, collectively having 400,000 megawatts of installed nuclear capacity, ratify it with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Four have done so -- the United States, Morocco, Argentina and Romania, with a total of 319,256 megawatts.

"Liability limitations remain very important for private sector companies operating in this area," said Karan Bhatia, a vice president for international government relations and policy at GE. In the company's view, India's ratification of the compensation convention and adoption of domestic legislation "would be the optimal way forward," Bhatia said.

Indian officials have agreed to study the proposal. But with a national election scheduled in a few months, the matter could spill over to the next government.

The volume of business opportunities for Americans is expected to swell when an Indian law prohibiting private companies from generating nuclear energy is amended. Large Indian corporations are exploring ties with U.S. and French companies to eventually secure contracts for constructing nuclear power stations and generating power, or for producing components such as generators and turbines.

But India aspires to become more than a mere market for foreign players in the nuclear industry. The country hopes to position itself as a low-cost manufacturing hub that supplies nuclear components to the world. Officials here say they also want to provide manpower to nuclear projects and help other countries decommission and upgrade old nuclear plants.

India's traditional way of doing nuclear business is also proving to be a challenge for some American companies. Indian nuclear plants have always preferred to procure nuclear fuel, the reactor and technology from a single vendor. This model worked with the Russians and the French, because nobody else wanted to conduct nuclear trade with India.

"The Indian mind-set has to be weaned out of this practice. We are trying to convince them that it is a lot cheaper to work with more than one vendor and buy them separately," said Vijay Sazawal, director of government programs at USEC, a Maryland-based supplier of enriched uranium fuel.

But Sazawal said he would not wait until the laws are amended and mind-sets change. His company is negotiating with a French nuclear power company, EDF, for business possibilities in India.

"There is a legacy of residual distrust from three decades of technology denial by the U.S.," said K. Santhanam, a defense expert who has worked in India's nuclear program. "So in the first stage, the U.S. industry can play a sub-vendor role to French reactors or join in a consortium with French companies. After all, the French will not allow Americans to run away with the lion's share."

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby G Subramaniam » 03 Sep 2008 06:18

I remember in 1998, the NDA stopped aid from a whole host of countries following POK-2
does anyone have the URL

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Manny » 03 Sep 2008 09:17

You know.. India used to an empty moral pontificator once ...During the cold war, we used to be like what NZ and Austria and Switzerland are today.

Oh..the Irony!

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby John Snow » 03 Sep 2008 09:21

Manny wrote:You know.. India used to an empty moral pontificator once ...During the cold war, we used to be like what NZ and Austria and Switzerland are today.

Oh..the Irony!

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:


No India tried its darn best to persuade universal disarmament, even pleaded for Nuclear free IOR, but then after 1971 Diego Garccia .

from google wiki

In the 1960s, the Chagos archipelago was leased to the United Kingdom and detached from Mauritius with the intention of setting up plantations. However, in 1971 the United Kingdom and United States entered an agreement under which the latter would set up a military base in Diego Garcia. Since then, United Kingdom enforced the highly controversial depopulation of Diego Garcia. It has one of the five ground antennas assisting the operation of the Global Positioning System, the others being on Ascension Island, Hawaii, Kwajalein and Colorado Springs.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 03 Sep 2008 09:35

ramana wrote:There is no dilemma/vilemma in the PRC. The PLA represents the hardliners and they are the ones who call the shots and did the proliferation to TSP as hedging agaisnt a rising India which was unsure of its own future. The Chinese Foreign Minsitry are the "dove" and they advocate the soft line and want to soothe the Indians while the PLA sharpens the knives. This dilemma/split is all for show. Not much to read into it.


Ramana,

I agree with you fully (not using 400% on a serious thread!) on this.

IMO what the Chinese are doing is simple. They've realised that the end game will be played out on Sept5 as the little boys have had their day in the Sun and now the big boys (France, for example) are coming out to play. The WP article seems to acknowledge this.

What the Chinese are saying is that while we're not going to set up hurdles at NSG, don't take us for granted - we reserve the right to play spoilsport to India on a future date. In short, don't take our behaviour at NSG as the norm in future.

There also may be another thought playing in Panda's mind. If the NSG rejects the India waiver on non-proliferation grounds then there's bound to be a lot of hullabaloo, at least in the Indian press, about double standards vis a vis Chinese proliferation to the Pukes. I think KS' recent comment highlighted a few posts above is a clear pointer to that direction - a kind of warning shot.

The Chinese may not want all that stuff raked up once again at a time when they are on the one hand basking in the glory of a wonderful Olympics and on the other hand facing a real prospect of an economic slowdown.

JMT

PS: While I'm pretty sure that Sept5 will see India get the waiver, I'm a bit pensive about the revised draft since we've not had a chance to see it. As it is 2g was almost borderline. My only hope is the fact that too many people (in GoI) have articulated the red lines too many times to (hopefully) cross them.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Pulikeshi » 03 Sep 2008 10:07

I'd guess, come Sept 5th, the Chair will pontificate some prescriptions to India.
Next some text in the draft will talk about countries aligning their national laws similar to the Hyde act at some later date post waiver.
There may be efforts to do a periodic review of progress by different states in the NSG.
The rest of the draft will remain the same.

There is a 60:40 shot at getting the waiver - but the fat lady is no where near the podium yet!

just my guess!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 03 Sep 2008 10:29

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/dpb/2008/sept/109056.htm

Daily Press Briefing
by Sean McCormack, Sept2


QUESTION: Sean, excuse me. Could you – could you describe diplomacy that might be underway vis-à-vis the Nuclear Suppliers Group meeting that’s going to occur later this week? There was certainly some resistance to the U.S.-India nuclear deal at the last one. And if you get it through this week, isn’t it now a lost cause in terms of getting this done by 2008?

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, we’re not giving up the ship at all, Dave. It’s – there were a very tight series of deadlines that were out there in terms of working this through the international system, working it through our Congress. We’re going to continue to push for this agreement. We think it’s in the interest of the United States. It’s in the interest – and it’s also in the interest of global nonproliferation efforts.

As for the Nuclear Suppliers Group, we’re going to have – I think there’s another one on the 4th and 5th, September 4th and 5th. We’re going to be represented by Bill Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, who’s been deeply involved in this, as well as Acting Under Secretary John Rood, who also within his – because of his portfolio has been very active on the issue.

So we’re going to continue to make the case, move it forward. You know, we are in contact with other members of the Nuclear Supplier Group. We believe that this is an issue on which the NSG should act and should move forward. But again, it’s a lot of hard diplomacy that goes into that and in getting a consensus within the group.

QUESTION: Wouldn’t it seemingly require a sort of a rump session of Congress to get this done?

MR. MCCORMACK: You know, Dave, all I can say is we’re going to keep pushing forward on it.

Yeah.

QUESTION: Can you just address why the – you know, my understanding is that a new U.S. draft was circulated to the other NSG members over the weekend. I can’t – I don’t know if it went out Friday night or Saturday. And at least according to our reporting, diplomats from the countries that had opposed the original one are still not satisfied by the current one and they feel that there are not sufficient conditions attached to it. Can you just broad-brush explain to us why the Administration believes that India deserves a largely condition-free exemption to the NSG rules?

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, very broad-bushed speaking, we believe it’s in the efforts – in the interest of global nonproliferation efforts as, you know, part of – at the core of the NSG mission. And I know that there are some states that have concerns, and we’ve talked to a lot of those various states. I’m not going to name names, but we’ve talked to a lot of them. They’ve announced themselves publicly, and you can look it up, and what their concerns are. We – you know, we have made, without getting into a lengthy discussion about it, we’ve made the assessment that this is in our interest, it’s in the interest of India to develop civil – civilian nuclear energy, while providing some assurances regarding nonproliferation activities.

QUESTION: And do you feel like sentiment within the NSG is now shifting your way?

MR. MCCORMACK: You know, I never take those kinds of bets, but we’re working hard on it. We believe that this is something that is worthy of the NSG supporting. We’re going to continue to work within the group and work with individual states to try to move it forward.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 03 Sep 2008 10:48

India went nuclear because of 1964 not because of Diego Garcia. TSP followed suit.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 11:11

In Secret Letter, Tough U.S. Line on India Nuclear Deal by Glenn Kessler: Washington Post

The State Department's letter to Lantos gives a different story. It says the United States would help India deal only with "disruptions in supply to India that may result through no fault of its own," such as a trade war or market disruptions. "The fuel supply assurances are not, however, meant to insulate India against the consequences of a nuclear explosive test or a violation of nonproliferation commitments," the letter said.

The letter also stated that the "U.S. government will not assist India in the design, construction or operation of sensitive nuclear technologies," even though the Hyde Act allowed transfers of such technology under certain circumstances. The U.S. government had no plans to seek to amend the deal to allow sensitive transfers, the letter said.


Can't find the letter on WWW. People would wondering whether MMS is making a fool of Indians after the publication of this letter. It could still have been simply a tactical retreat in order to get a clean waiver at the NSG.

So much double talk. There is no point in buying American Reactors anyway, so it doesn't really matter, what they have in their laws. America is in it for the defense deals.

Canada and Australia would probably go along with the Hyde Act in their bilateral agreements with India as far as termination on testing is concerned.

Russia and France don't care about that.

It would be great if India could ensure, that India's Agreement with Japan has none of this nonsense, which will probably be the case once Taro Aso sits in the Prime Minister's seat.

UK and Germany may either take the cue from Hyde Act or from France, hopefully from France, and make it sort of a EU convention.

Very very important that India holds the line on Sept 4-5.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 03 Sep 2008 11:30



Rajesh,

Please see this from the same article:

The questions were addressed in a 26-page letter sent to Berman's predecessor, the late Rep. Tom Lantos (D-Calif.), on Jan. 16.

The answers were considered so sensitive, particularly because debate over the agreement in India could have toppled the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, that the State Department requested they remain secret even though they were not classified.

Lynne Weil, a spokeswoman for Berman, said he made the answers public yesterday because, if NSG approval is granted, the U.S-India deal soon would be submitted to Congress for final approval and "he wants to assure that Congress has the relevant information."


Since the time the letter was written and now a lot of water has flowed down the Ganga and Potomac.

It was released by the Ayatollahs as a last ditch effort to embarrass the US and Indian interlocutors at NSG.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 11:42

The publication of the secret letter from Howard Berman was probably in response to the comments by other Congressmen, that there probably would be a lame duck session after the elections. As the White House would have required his assistance in getting the deal through in Sept. itself, a lame duck session would have taken away his power of blackmail. So he published the letter, in order to encourage NSG countries to require Hyde-like conditions in the Waiver, as he was not sure anymore that State Dept. would insist upon them.

If NSG provides India with a clean waiver, it is USA which would have to change their laws again, to make GE and Westinghouse competitive with French, Russian and (maybe) Japanese companies. Hyde Act would not be able to withstand the pressure of the Nuclear Lobby to amend it, throwing out no-testing clauses, restrictions on ENR, etc. If these companies want India to put Non-Liability Laws in place, then they also have to force the US Congress to make some Amendments also.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 11:44

amit wrote:


Rajesh,

Please see this from the same article:

The questions were addressed in a 26-page letter sent to Berman's predecessor, the late Rep. Tom Lantos (D-Calif.), on Jan. 16.

The answers were considered so sensitive, particularly because debate over the agreement in India could have toppled the government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, that the State Department requested they remain secret even though they were not classified.

Lynne Weil, a spokeswoman for Berman, said he made the answers public yesterday because, if NSG approval is granted, the U.S-India deal soon would be submitted to Congress for final approval and "he wants to assure that Congress has the relevant information."


Since the time the letter was written and now a lot of water has flowed down the Ganga and Potomac.

It was released by the Ayatollahs as a last ditch effort to embarrass the US and Indian interlocutors at NSG.


That explains a few things. I was under the impression, this letter was part of the assurances Condi gave to Berman to get him to shut his trap. Yes indeed, the water flows!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby vera_k » 03 Sep 2008 11:48

Suppiah wrote:India went nuclear because of 1964 not because of Diego Garcia. TSP followed suit.


There is at least one reference that the tipping point for India's decision was the US nuclear threat in 1971 during the India-Pakistan war.

http://www.indianembassy.org/policy/CTBT/ctbt_ghose.htm

Then in 1971, the Indo-Pakistani war and the subsequent liberation of Bangladesh occurred. For the first time since independence, Indian policy was subjected to military pressure by a Nuclear Weapon State when the USS Enterprise entered the Bay of Bengal in an attempt to force a cease-fire on India, which clearly had the advantage over Pakistan, an ally of the United States.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 03 Sep 2008 12:04

Caught in a whirlpool of darkness by Jalebi: The News

Now coming to the strange silence and inaction of our leaders in the face of strategic developments around us. Is it not ironic that while the US-Haqqani-Malik-Durrani network halted our nuclear diplomacy, some European countries and New Zealand have taken a principled position against the Indo-US nuclear deal in the Nuclear Suppliers' Group – correctly viewing this agreement as undermining the existing non proliferation regime? Can we regain our courage and assert our interest on the nuclear issue? If our present subservience to US diktat continues God help this country's strategic assets under the new Zardari presidential dispensation.


MMS Sings:
Bachnaa, ae Haseenon, lo main aa gayaa!


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