India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

amit
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 09:24

Arnab,

Thanks for a wonderful post.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby rocky » 05 Sep 2008 09:40

narayanan wrote:What nation would go out and participate in a deal where they EXPECT to get cheated? (I mean, not just contingency, but if the 99.99% expectation is to get cheated?)
Atleast five nations that I can think of off the top of my head.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 09:44

Sean wrote: Perhaps US and India both understood all along that the deal is not about Indo-US nuclear commerce. It really doesn't matter what the letter states as long as NSG waiver is relatively clean. All India needs is few willing suppliers.

As for MMS/Congress party, people will have a chance to decide in the next election.



Actually sometimes I think we give more importance to the Hyde Act than the Americans themselves do.

I would like some informed guru to explain to me - in simple terms - how the Hyde comes into effect if we don't do nuclear commerce with the US?

If the NSG waiver is clean and unconditional and does not contain any of the poison pills built into the Hyde and if India does not do nuclear commerce with the US then how does it affect us? I am assuming our future 123 s with France and Russia will not have Hyde like provisions built into them?

As to MMS misleading the nations and all such ballyhoo, he's been consistently saying that India is governed by the provisions of 123 and that Hyde is US domestic law. And how does this letter change that position? Did anyone seriously think that we could get a deal with the US which says: "Hey you guys can test as many giga booms or fizzles as you want, we love you so much that we'll look the other way?"

Look at it from another way, what exactly was MMS supposed to have told the Parliament? That we will be screwed royally if we test because we are governed by a US domestic law and so we will never be able to test again? Forget the deal - MMS would have had to scupper before making such a statement - he would then have been crucified because everyone would have been doing three feet high jumps saying how dare the PM of India say that he's scared of a domestic US legislation!

The whole idea of this deal is to end India's nuclear isolation and don't you think that could happen if the NSG waiver is OK? If you have read KS over the years that this deal has been taken shape he's been saying that US is only a facilitator to help us end the nuclear isolation. What's do hard about understanding that?

The BJP, unfortunately is just playing petty politics. It's smarting under the fact that their great Tehelka like undercover action has just fizzled out (like Pokharan II?) and it is looking the hit back.

Sorry to say the merits/demerits of the deal are the least of the BJP's concerns.

PS: Regarding the journalism on display in India on this deal, here's a thought. Don't you think that folks like Kimball and organisations like ACA are getting more column centimetres of space in Indian papers than in the West? Speaks a lot about their objectivity doesn't it?
Last edited by amit on 05 Sep 2008 09:48, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby SwamyG » 05 Sep 2008 09:46

Arnab: One way of looking at the things is dicing the issue party wise. What would BJP or INC do? But another way to slice the issue is what kind of people lead the parties! What are their ideologies, principles, priorities and values? Is the INC now the same INC that was during PVN's time or the time when Indra Gandhi over saw Pokhran-I? It will useful to note why we have the leaders we have now.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 09:52

SwamyG wrote:Arnab: One way of looking at the things is dicing the issue party wise. What would BJP or INC do? But another way to slice the issue is what kind of people lead the parties! What are their ideologies, principles, priorities and values? Is the INC now the same INC that was during PVN's time or the time when Indra Gandhi over saw Pokhran-I? It will useful to note why we have the leaders we have now.


If I may butt in, it's an accepted truism that a democracy gets a government (and leaders) they deserve.

You can't do an analysis of the quality of our leaders without analyzing the preference and psychology of the Indian voters.

I could postulate, for example, (and note wrongly) that the BJP could not come back to power with a majority in the last election because their leaders did not show the moral fibre which the Indian voters wanted and hence janata janardhan decided to give the INC a chance?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby SwamyG » 05 Sep 2008 10:00

Yup. I say in the 21st century it is "Yatha Praja thatha Raja". So what is happening to our people? BJP losing had nothing to do with moral fiber or lack of it. They just miscalculated things in the economy and country. At one level BJP or INC does not matter, they are in a different league than the Left parties. Both the former parties have hoary past with luminaries with different set of ideologies and values. Things have changed. But the aam admi does not really care about nuclear reactors or Pokran-III or IV. All s/he cares is for uninterrupted power to watch cricket or the soap-operas in the cities. Expectations might be different in the rural/agricultural/manufacturing areas.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby arnab » 05 Sep 2008 10:12

amit wrote:
SwamyG wrote:Arnab: One way of looking at the things is dicing the issue party wise. What would BJP or INC do? But another way to slice the issue is what kind of people lead the parties! What are their ideologies, principles, priorities and values? Is the INC now the same INC that was during PVN's time or the time when Indra Gandhi over saw Pokhran-I? It will useful to note why we have the leaders we have now.


If I may butt in, it's an accepted truism that a democracy gets a government (and leaders) they deserve.

You can't do an analysis of the quality of our leaders without analyzing the preference and psychology of the Indian voters.

I could postulate, for example, (and note wrongly) that the BJP could not come back to power with a majority in the last election because their leaders did not show the moral fibre which the Indian voters wanted and hence janata janardhan decided to give the INC a chance?


@ Amit - Thanks boss for your kind comments earlier. To return the compliment would be superfluous as your contribution to this forum has already been noted :) bhalo adda and I certainly learnt a lot.

@SwamyG - Very True. Parties are organic entities. They change over time and have different priorities. Abhraham Lincoln was a Republican :) But then it is the same for the polity. Our aspirations and benchmarks have changed over the years. 10 years back our comparison yardstick was Pakistan. Today it is china. Tomorrow - who knows?

Second, as I was saying I believe we judge leaders (showing similar qualities) differently based on our predelictions. PVN is hailed as a hero for not doing anything - 'Not doing anything is also a decision'. The same methodology applied to MMS makes him weak and pusallinimous. Similarly, when he actually does politicking a la IG and wins a no-confidence motion - we moan on his lack of integrity and honesty.

You see, we are talking about defence of the realm here. It is not a story of giving the ADS contract to an italian firm, it is about the soverignity of India. A realm which has offered very good returns to MMS , Sonia, LKA, Modi whoever. These cannot be replicated in any bribes that the US might want to give. So deep down I believe its defence is assured. Hence I find it slightly abhorrent that we mirror the paki mindset when we claim that an 'italian' cannot look after Indian interests.

JMT

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby SwamyG » 05 Sep 2008 10:24

....but shouldn't we measure why and for what purpose some one is politicking? Do we whine and moan about about our freedom fighters? Surely there were different methodologies. But what was the purpose?
I did not bring the "Italian" thing into picture. But since you bring it here, I am curious to know why you say what you said. Are you saying an "Italian" can look after Indian interests?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 05 Sep 2008 10:30

The hard hitting Statesman editorial looks like a member had inputs. Its about the plotical aspects of how the deal was portrayed in the Lok Sabha.

Even if there is no Indo-US commerce in civiiian nuke paraphranelia, Hyde requires the Prseident to actively seek measures against India in event of a test with other countries.

The way out is as KS stated- get clean NSG waiver and get the 123 approved by US Congress. I think there is realization that India might get what it wants due to the legal process in the us and thats why the conditions etc being sought at the NSG level.

If that happens India should walk out and Blackwill realizes that and has said so.

Some one was saying should India test if TSP or PRC test? It depends if that test impacts Indian security or not.
Say for instance PRC tests a chotu. No sweat. Say TSP tests a chotu. No sweat as all they have are chotus!
If TSP tests a TN yes. If PRC tests a medium to heavy based on US tech yes.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby arnab » 05 Sep 2008 10:46

SwamyG wrote:....but shouldn't we measure why and for what purpose some one is politicking? Do we whine and moan about about our freedom fighters? Surely there were different methodologies. But what was the purpose?
I did not bring the "Italian" thing into picture. But since you bring it here, I am curious to know why you say what you said. Are you saying an "Italian" can look after Indian interests?


Re freedom fighters' - Gandhi and Nehru are usually not the flavour of the month on this forum :) I put 'Italian' in quotes implying that many here are unwilling to recognise the 'Indianess' of SG. And no I do not expect an Italian to look after India's interest. His / Her job is to look after Italy's interest.

One should certainly try to measure the purposes of politicking. The issue is whether we can really be objective when measuring this politicking. I think biases are bound to creep in. Hence for me I would rather go by available facts instead of relying on vague innuendoes.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 10:50

arnab wrote: Second, as I was saying I believe we judge leaders (showing similar qualities) differently based on our predelictions. PVN is hailed as a hero for not doing anything - 'Not doing anything is also a decision'. The same methodology applied to MMS makes him weak and pusallinimous. Similarly, when he actually does politicking a la IG and wins a no-confidence motion - we moan on his lack of integrity and honesty.


Arnab,

Thanks! :)

Adda ta bhaloi hochhe (The discussion is going on just fine)!

However, my contribution has been in quantity while I must say you score on quality!

I think the above para in your post is very important.

I would like to point out one important aspect to all the folks here who are bemoaning the fact that MMS does not have the sagacity, moral fibre, conjones whatever that PVNR or IG displayed. And that is we are praising these two dead leaders and their actions many years after their stints as PMs.

Have we forgotten the kind of hysteria that was created when IG declared emergency, have we forgotten the disastrous bank nationalisation or Garibi Hatao campaigns?

In PVNR's case we praise him for keeping the economic reforms on track despite a minority government. Yet during that time there was a vicious campagin against him and MMS (as FM) in the Press (very similar to the attacks that used to take place on MMS prior to the no-confidence motion) led by worthies such as Gurumurthy.

Have we forgotten the infamous Bombay Club who's members like Rahul Bajaj have now become champions of free enterprise. Or about Harshad Mehta and his big, fat briefcase?

My whole point in bringing up all these points is that it is only with the benefit of hindsight that we can gauge many years down the line that the positives of their stints as PMs far out weighs the negatives.

If the nuclear deal goes through with the clean and unconditional waiver at NSG, who knows how folks then will view MMS on BRF 10 years down the line?

JMT
Last edited by amit on 05 Sep 2008 10:54, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 05 Sep 2008 10:50

ramana wrote:The hard hitting Statesman editorial looks like a member had inputs. Its about the plotical aspects of how the deal was portrayed in the Lok Sabha.

Even if there is no Indo-US commerce in civiiian nuke paraphranelia, Hyde requires the Prseident to actively seek measures against India in event of a test with other countries.

The way out is as KS stated- get clean NSG waiver and get the 123 approved by US Congress. I think there is realization that India might get what it wants due to the legal process in the us and thats why the conditions etc being sought at the NSG level.

If that happens India should walk out and Blackwill realizes that and has said so.

As KS is hinting, US got KLPD'ed and wants to re-spin the web that will go waste when Hyde gets superseded with 123 that is clean, hence burning desire to use the 6 mujra hijadda to do backdoor job.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 05 Sep 2008 11:02

amit wrote:If the nuclear deal goes through with the C&C at NSG, who knows how folks then will view MMS on BRF 10 years down the line?

Sure, come back after 10 years to ask this question and seek self validation and then we will not have to speculate on his chastity or pervertness. Pls forgive us this aarti till then. India is bigger than MMS, ABV, PVN, Gowda or Morarji. And yes people care about this issue because they care for India and NOT their particular political parties or MMS.

I ask you to stop maligning other posters who question GoI and to paint them as if it is about "hate for MMS". People care because I believe it is about love for India.

Thank you.

amit wrote:It's interesting how the argument was and is always about MMS and not so much about the India-US Civilian Nuclear Deal!

A despicable statement.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby svinayak » 05 Sep 2008 11:04

Last few pages have been funny. LOL

As the things have been revealed about the deal there is more mention of BJP this and that.

Never seen anything like this in BRF
The BJP has so far chosen to free-ride on choices made by previous governments (the nuke programme, non-signing of NPT etc). which the INC did not and hence the ‘nationalistic’ credentials of BJP.

Now if the deal does go through then future governments have to recognise a new reality of a break from the past and react accordingly. No more free rides. This I believe scares the hell out of BJP.
Last edited by svinayak on 05 Sep 2008 11:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Aditya_V » 05 Sep 2008 11:07

Finally the truth being acknowleged. ABV had to test, the Porkis new thier weapons would but we didnt. I would like to ask all those so called intelluctual people in India who blamed ABV for Nuclearing the sub continent in 1998. WHat do you say to this.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/China_tested_nukes_for_Pakistan_gave_design/articleshow/3447395.cms

China tested nukes for Pakistan, gave design

WASHINGTON: While an assortment of non-proliferation hardliners and hi-tech suppliers treat India with immense suspicion in the matter of nuclear trade predicated on tests, it turns out that the United States and the west were fully aware of Chinese nuclear weapons proliferation to Pakistan, including conducting a proxy test for it, as far back as 1990.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 11:08

Indian officials meet representatives of skeptic NSG member countries

“We have made progress,” a Canadian diplomat said at the end of Thursday’s sessions. Meetings continued through the day, in small and large groups, to thrash out the differences.

According to reports, the U. S. is expected to consult overnight with the handful of countries still holding out and then talk to the Indian delegation in Vienna, with a view to develop a new draft waiver by Friday.{Not sure what to make of this sentence, especially about a new draft waiver?}

“The number of countries who favour this going through now is quite large, certainly more than before,” said a diplomat.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 05 Sep 2008 11:15

Bottom line is get a clean and unconditional waiver.

If N-deal harms, India may back out: Kakodkar
NDTV Correspondent
Thursday, September 04, 2008, (Vienna)
The ongoing controversy over the Indo-US nuclear deal got more murkier when India's top atomic official, Dr Anil Kakodkar, revealed India's stand.

In an exclusive interview with NDTV, Kakodkar said that India is willing to walk away from the Indo-US nuclear deal if it is not 'appetising' enough.

Using the metaphor of a well-cooked meal, he said that the deal is still cooking but in the end if the deal does harm to India, we are willing to walk away.

The comments come a day after a secret and strongly worded letter from the Bush administration to the United States Congress on the deal was released.

The letter was written in January and was meant to be confidential. Dr Kakodkar says that its release on Wednesday took him by surprise.

He, however, clarifies that the letter makes no difference to the 123 agreement but if India conducted a nuclear explosive test, one of the consequences it would have to factor in is the smooth functioning of the new nuclear reactors India will get.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 11:18

Arun_S wrote:Sure, come back after 10 years to ask this question and seek self validation and then we will not have to speculate on his chastity or pervertness. Pls forgive us this aarti till then. India is bigger than MMS, ABV, PVN, Gowda or Morarji. And yes people care about this issue because they care for India and NOT their particular political parties or MMS.


Arun_S,

I'm not interested in self-validation, I'm confident about my opinions especially about Indian politics and politicians as I've been watching them and writing about them for more than 20 years. So thanks but no thanks. My comment was in response to the point about INC not producing leaders of the caliber of IG or PVNR. So what's your grouse? And where did ABV, Gowda or Moraji come into this?

I ask you to stop maligning other posters who question GoI and to paint them as if it is about "hate for MMS". People care because I believe it is about love for India.

Thank you.

amit wrote:It's interesting how the argument was and is always about MMS and not so much about the India-US Civilian Nuclear Deal!

A despicable statement.


Where's exactly have I maligned a particular poster or any poster for the matter in my quote can you explain please?

It was in response to this quote, incase you didn't notice:

Are there people here, who still believe MMS was misled?


There are people still on this thread who happen to believe that not only was MMS not mislead but is on the right track and is not a sell-out. Can't then the above quote be construed, by you own logic, as maglining these posters? Words like despicable should be used with care IMO.
Last edited by amit on 05 Sep 2008 12:14, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 05 Sep 2008 11:21

India will back out if N-deal unpalatable: Kakodkar
Pallava Bagla
Thursday, September 04, 2008, (Vienna)
On Thursday the Nuclear Suppliers Group met in Vienna, a day after a potentially explosive document was released by the US Congress, to consider India's case for starting nuclear commerce, NDTV interviewed the normally reclusive Dr Anil Kakodkar, Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission.

Here are the excerpts from the interview.

NDTV: Were you surprised by the release of the questions and answers between the US Congress and the State Department. Was it mischief or enhancement of transparency on part of the US?

Anil Kakodkar: Well, I don't know, but I was surprised by the timing of it surely.

NDTV: It took you by surprise, you had not seen it earlier?

Anil Kakodkar: No, I know (from media reports) that there was document like that, a set of question and answers. I also knew this was asked to be kept classified, but I didn't know this would be released at this juncture.

NDTV: The Americans didn't show you this document before this?

Anil Kakodkar: No.

NDTV: But why did they time (the release) it now?

Anil Kakodkar: Well, I don't know, but now that they have released it, I have gone through this document and to me it seems it is a kind of specific responses to a set of specific questions and we need to study this in detail. But a quick reading tells me that it actually doesn't take away anything that we have been saying here in India before.

NDTV: Well if it doesn't take away anything and caught you little by surprise, then why were you asked to end your Ganesh Chaturthi celebrations on Wednesday and fly in for a huddle with the PM?

Anil Kakodkar: No, I don't think you should link it to it. The fact is (the NSG was) meeting on Thursday and Friday and it was felt necessary. We should be all together here in case there is a necessity for a quick response. I don't think we should link it with this. Certainly, now that this has happened, this also has been one of the items, so that is being gone through, but I am here primarily because of this intention of being together here in Delhi to configure our responses.

NDTV: What do you think will happen at the NSG meeting - will this document have any impact on what is being discussed and deliberated there?

Anil Kakodkar: Well, strictly speaking, it should not. However, we are living in this (real) world, so we can't say. But the fact is that we are talking about an exemption from NSG that is clean and no new conditions should be there and that is because after all this whole deal is arising out of the Indo-US understanding of July 18, 2005. Under that there were reciprocal commitments on both sides and we have done everything that we were expected to be doing. We expect all the remaining things that have to be done by the other side to be done.

NDTV: The other side meaning the Americans need to get their act together?

Anil Kakodkar: Yes, yes a clean NSG exemption is part of that.

NDTV: You mean clean and unconditional also?

Anil Kakodkar: Well clean and unconditional. The point is we have as I have said earlier, we have done everything, that we are supposed to do as part of the July 18, 2005 understanding and so there can't be any new conditions

NDTV: Overnight the revised draft of the NSG pre decisional judgement has also been leaked out. It seems that there are changes in just two paragraphs, which have been added. Now, I presume, you are happy with what has been given in.

Anil Kakodkar: I haven't seen the draft which has leaked. I know the draft that has been agreed upon.

NDTV: You haven't compared the two?

Anil Kakodkar: Not yet.

NDTV: Well, I can give you one.

Anil Kakodkar: I have heard that it has been leaked, I have not seen it. But certainly the agreed text of the draft exemption is of course different than what was the draft on the table during the last meeting, but it is within the parameters of which have been laid down. So we can expect.

NDTV: So are the red lines well defined?

Anil Kakodkar: Yes, yes they are very clear in our minds and we expect that this draft should be accepted as it is without any changes.

NDTV: Is that the bottomline we have, can't we do anymore changes to that?

Anil Kakodkar: Well the point is after all there is always a bit of drafting exercise, but in terms of the substantive issues, there cannot be any change

NDTV: You have told me in one of your discussions that the goalpost was being shifted by the Americans. Today there is a feeling in India that it's not just the goalpost, but the whole field has been moved away and shifted and things are going out of control and non pros (non-proliferationists) are taking over. In that situation, how will you assuage the feelings of a billion plus population that it is not happening?

Anil Kakodkar: I think there is no question of shifting the field and there is no question of shifting the goalpost. As I told you earlier, we are talking within the framework of the July 18, 2005 understanding and those redlines remain as they are.

NDTV: So you still think the field is right there and the goalpost has not shifted?

Anil Kakodkar: We will not allow it to shift.

NDTV: If you see it shifting, what will happen?

Anil Kakodkar: We will draw our conclusion.

NDTV: Draw our conclusion means what?

Anil Kakodkar: Let us see what happens, then we will decide. Why prejudge the issue?

NDTV: Still willing to walk away if the goal posts are shifted?

Anil Kakodkar: Let us see what happens then we will decide.

NDTV: Sir, see what?

Anil Kakodkar: See what the final outcome is.

NDTV: You are saying that the deal is still cooking so we don't know the taste (just as yet)?

Anil Kakodkar: Let us finish the cooking process and than taste it and see if it is good or bad.

NDTV: But will that (not) be too late?

Anil Kakodkar: No, why should it be too late.

NDTV: Meal is cooked and ready and finished, if (then) it's not appetising for us?

Anil Kakodkar: We don't eat it. If it is appetising then we will eat it.

NDTV: We are willing to have a cooked meal (namely the finalised Indo-US civilian nuclear agreement) kept aside fully?

Anil Kakodkar: If it is going to cause harm to our health, what do you do? You don't eat something just because it's served to you.

NDTV: So the deal in a form which is unpalatable to us will be kept aside?

Anil Kakodkar: Well what's the other alternative? But let's wait and see.

NDTV: So are you still hopeful?

Anil Kakodkar: I have said several times that I am always hopeful, I am optimistic, but at the same time believe in being a realist.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Pulikeshi » 05 Sep 2008 11:56

Seems we are heading, like I had suggested before, for a "prescriptive" talk by Chair, followed by agreement to consult on aligning countries individual "hyde" acts - however, these are just mine fields, but not necessarily incongruous with "clean and somewhat conditional" waiver.

Nuclear dawn for India at NSG?

India’s efforts to secure a waiver to engage in civil nuclear commerce with the rest of the world brightened at the end of day one of the second round of Nuclear Supplier Group consultations in Vienna.

A top Indian official told the Hindustan Times that as many as 20 countries spoke out in the morning session in support of the exemption draft circulated by the United States after taking India’s consent.

With charges flying thick and fast on the civil nuclear deal back home in India, the US exerted considerable pressure on NSG holdouts to push a waiver through the exclusive nuclear club that controls global atomic trade.

“We have made progress,” a Canadian diplomat said at the end of Thursday’s sessions. Meetings continued through the day, in small and large groups, to thrash out the differences.

“There have been minor changes in the draft circulated by the US today,” another diplomat said. Driblets of information emerging after the meeting suggested a positive outcome for India.

In Delhi, the Left and the BJP demanded PM Manmohan Singh’s resignation and the immediate convening of Parliament. But the government maintained that the “secret letter” published by The Washington Post doesn’t alter India’s position.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said New Delhi reserved the right to conduct a nuke test and was not bound by any pronouncements other than the 123 Agreement. He added that the government cannot go “beyond” its commitment to Parliament on the India-US nuclear deal.

The 45-national Nuclear Suppliers’ Group is meeting in Vienna to decide on a US proposal waiving rules preventing India from conducting civilian-use nuclear trade with members of this elite group.

The group held a three-and-a-half-hour meeting in the morning, before going into recess to allow the Americans to consult other delegations on possible textual changes in the revised waiver draft. It then convened again at 8.30 pm IST. US Under Secretary of State William Burns, who is leading the American delegation, sounded hopeful that the NSG would, after all had been said and done, alter the rules of the nuclear game for India.

"The US believes firmly that the step, which we are considering for India will strengthen non-proliferation and welcome one of the world's largest economies… more fully into the global fold," Burns said in a statement.

"I believe we are making steady progress in this process and that we will continue to make progress," he said.

"And, while a number of representatives here have raised important questions that need to be addressed, our discussions have been constructive and clearly aimed at reaching an early consensus," the senior American official said.

According to him, the NSG had been presented with a historic opportunity to end more than three decades of India's isolation from nuclear regimes, which warranted the extraordinary efforts that were being made.

A text of the revised draft, now made public, reveals that some minor adjustments have been made but that the significant body of the text still stands.

Without mentioning a fresh nuclear test by India, the new language suggests that if one or more governments believe that "circumstances have arisen which require consultations", participating governments would act according to paragraph 16 of NSG guidelines.

Paragraph 16, in turn, speaks of an NSG meeting to consider action against a country that might have exploded a nuclear bomb, or had illegally terminated International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.

A consultative mechanism with India has also been introduced, which requests the NSG chairman to "confer and consult" with New Delhi and keep the plenary informed of these consultations.

Yet another clause "invited" participating governments to share information, including about their bilateral (civil nuclear cooperation) agreements with India.

Indian officials led by Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon were not present at the meeting, but were informed of the deliberations after the NSG meeting broke for an afternoon recess.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Abhijit » 05 Sep 2008 12:07

arnab:
The BJP has so far chosen to free-ride on choices made by previous governments (the nuke programme, non-signing of NPT etc). They have also been able to show that a nuke establishment which punishes good behaviour (not allowing nuke-trade with India despite self imposed non-proliferation standards), does so at its own peril, which the INC did not and hence the ‘nationalistic’ credentials of BJP.

Now if the deal does go through then future governments have to recognise a new reality of a break from the past and react accordingly. No more free rides. This I believe scares the hell out of BJP. Theoretically, if they believe that the deal is not in the ‘national interest’ and MMS sold us out to the US, all they have to do if they come to power next (and there appears to be a good chance that it might) is to test mega bombs or boosted fission devices or whatever, and we are back again to square one.

However, whatever they do, will be on their heads entirely. It is possible that Indians might applaud their move and return them to power the next time. It is also entirely possible that the ‘tests’ pi$$ the Indian polity off. They feel it is unnecessary, they are not security minded, they don’t care being invaded by China – whatever be the reason, the choice is theirs.

Weird if not blatantly disingenuous analysis (and the rah rah brigade has already done the backslapping :eek: ). How did the BJP get a free-ride on the choices made by previous Govts? The INC did not have the cojones nor the desire to confront the odious npt regime. Yes, the previous govts did not sign the npt and they did initiate the nuke program, would you expect anything less from those who had taken the oath as the rep.s of the people? This is like saying that I should pay obeisance to the African 'lucy' because all mitochondrial dna traces back to her.

The 2nd para is even more disingenuous. If a deal that is bad for India is signed by a congress govt, the repercussions will have to be felt and price will have to be paid by all of India - not just congress. Your presciption is like saying, let congress sell out kashmir to pakis and if BJP thinks it is bad for India then let them come to power through ballot and then invade pakistan to get the land back. Oh wait, the congress has already tried this recently. So going by your logic any govt of the day can take any moronic and enormously detrimental decision to the future of the nation and let the chips fall wherever they may through the elcetoral process. Is this how decisions are made? No wonder we are in a mess.

The third para is pure gibberish. Where does getting invaded by CHina come into picture?

I am cautiously pro-deal myself but you can't spew bs and get away with it.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Sean » 05 Sep 2008 12:14

Pulikeshi wrote:Without mentioning a fresh nuclear test by India, the new language suggests that if one or more governments believe that "circumstances have arisen which require consultations", participating governments would act according to paragraph 16 of NSG guidelines.

Paragraph 16, in turn, speaks of an NSG meeting to consider action against a country that might have exploded a nuclear bomb, or had illegally terminated International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards.

So any NSG member can require a meeting to take action in the event India conducts nuclear tests. As has been mentioned before, a test in response to Chinese/Pakistani test is unlikely to lead to consensus against India at NSG. However, a test to validate/refine the weapons may create a problem if done too soon after the NSG waiver.

I expect India not to test until it has enough fuel reserves, and enough reprocessed seed fuel for Thorium reactors

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Abhijit » 05 Sep 2008 12:27

The whole cornerstone of Indian policy has been not to make a 'guns vs butter' argument so far. We stuck to our guns when not just butter but even bhat (rice) was not available. And we always had the strategic freedom to make our own choice entirely by ourselves if ever there were to be a situation that called for a guns vs butter decision. Now with this deal we are openly inviting influence of external parties, most of whom have been inimical to us, whenever we are faced with a guns vs butter argument. This I believe is the basic angst of most of the no-deal people here on BR as well as in the policy circles. The only reason I am pro-deal is because I am optimistic that in the distant future when we are faced with the decision to test, we will have produced enough butter (nuclear and economic) to make the guns vs butter argument superfluous. If we don't produce enough butter in the interim then we might as well accept an american nuke umbrella just like Japan.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Pulikeshi » 05 Sep 2008 12:48

Everyone is focusing on test - as if it where a Boolean event!
That means everyone and their uncle can fall in one camp or the other.

The subtlety of the deal that is being hatched is as follows:
India is trading away the unconditional right to test, for a conditional one.

The NSG wants a rigid condition of "no testing"
The US wants a softer condition of "no unilateral testing"

Even if the NSG agree to the option between 0 and 1 -

The question is in return, are we getting assured supplies,
are we able to conduct commerce in high-technology items without restrictions, etc.
Here we may still be coming short on that list!

In any case, the way is to engage and work in the global system.
Not a "my way or the highway approach" - because to be a power, you need to earn it!

GOI irrespective of which party will do its job.
The political pressure from the opposition is as necessary as the realism of the party in power.
Can we quit this political cross-fire that is completely counterproductive?
Analyze and share ideas, what does screaming "sellout" or "nationalist" bring to the discussion?


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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby csharma » 05 Sep 2008 13:31

Indian officials upset with US stand on nuclear fuel

Indian officials are upset with the reply of United States on nuclear fuel. They said that US envoy's claim that India knew content of US reply is an outright lie.

The officials also said that the US State Department's reply on fuel has different interpretation from India.

"The 123 negotiations are made on assurances on fuel supply. 123 negotiations had no mention of tests," officials said.

"This will be taken up with the Americans at the political level," they said.

The confidential document that was leaked in the US stated that nuclear trade will be immediately called off in case of India conducting nuclear tests.

http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/st ... 0080064172

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby csharma » 05 Sep 2008 13:45

Well yesterday BJP was saying that American interpretation is different and that was deemed political.
Now Indian officials are saying the same thing. Pro deal NDTV is reporting it.

Americans have not been entirely honest about the whole thing. A lot of people had warned about that earlier.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 05 Sep 2008 13:50

I have to say I don't agree with those making a big fuss about this test thingy and this so called disclosure.

The NSG approval is to allow nuclear trade. The keyword here is 'allow' - not 'compel'. In other words, even after this whole affair getting approved, some nations may choose to avoid nuclear trade with us if that suits their agenda. Having allowed and commenced they can also stop it anytime of their choosing subject to the contractual obligations that go with each such contract. In other words they all have their own Hyde Acts. Furthermore, deal or no deal, testing would have had its consequences a few listed below

- TSP dusting off the mandarin bomb user guides and getting them translated again
- Web sites growing by another terabyte discussing how evil India is
- Pipsqueaks announcing sanctions
- OZ pulling out its ambassador
- Norway canceling $200000 aid to remove poverty in one or two villages in Orissa which would have anyway been used for ferrying their own officials around in first class to supposedly monitor the proejct
- Arundhati Roy and other trojan horses writing touching pieces about the land of Mahatma should get rid of nuclear weapons forever
- verbal diarrhea on the part of NPAs
- Uncle Sam regretting it
- France and Russia not regretting it

and so on..nothing changes. If anyone seriously believed that we have the right to test and Uncle Sam will not only not do anything but actively 'help' us deal with the consequences, I would love to see where they got this idea from. When MMS said we can test, what he probably meant was 'Yes we can test, but we can also jump off the cliff'. Did he mean to cheat? Probably yes. But it also speaks volumes of the idiocy of those that got cheated.

The one and only change that matters is the amendment of the NPT which brings India in officially as a nuclear weapons state. If that does not happen, nothing else changes.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 05 Sep 2008 13:56

Nuclear deal at end of road by Siddharth Varadarajan : Hindu

Vienna: The Group of Six like-minded states are continuing to insist on a clear "cause and effect" link between a future Indian atomic test and the termination of nuclear supplies and will block approval of the United States proposal to allow commerce with India when the Nuclear Suppliers Group reconvenes here Friday.

The six countries holding out for tougher conditions to be written into the draft proposal granting India an exemption from the NSG's rules are Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, the Netherlands and Switzerland. But the coalition is a shifting one and the six are getting support from other countries on some of the demands they are making. At the same time, the number of countries pushing for approval of the exemption has also grown, say diplomats. Under the 45-nation cartel's rules of consensus decision-making, howver, even one country has the right to block a decision.

A lengthy meeting between the U.S. and the G-6 ended inconclusively late on Thursday night with the latter refusing to accept any dilution of their demands. "There are still very different views on both sides. We made some progress on minor issues but on the principal questions, there has been no movement", a diplomat from one of the six countries told The Hindu. "I can't see any way to bridge the divide", he added. "Not unless a major shift in position [by India and the U.S.] occurs".

The single biggest obstacle is the demand of the six that the waiver for India be made strictly conditional on not violating the non-proliferation commitments it had made in order to get the waiver in the first place. The group of like-minded nations was not insisting on an explicit mention of nuclear testing, the diplomat said. "But we are giving this exemption on the basis of these commitments and if those commitments are no longer being observed, the basis for the exemption will no longer be there".

Automatic cut-off of supplies in the event of India abandoning its moratorium on nuclear testing "has been our absolute bottom line from the beginning," said the diplomat, "and there is no question of it being dropped". At the same time, he conceded that more than India, it was the "big supplier nations" like Russia and France that were opposing automaticity of termination. "We know the U.S. is committed to terminating supplies [if India tests] but we don't want to leave the decision within the NSG to each individual PG [participating government]".

The other big issue remaining is access to enrichment and reprocessing equipment and technology. The six want so-called sensitive nuclear technologies to be excluded from the purview of the waiver.

Noting that the six were receiving support from different countries on different issues, the diplomat described the position taken by China as "interesting". "After remaining silent all this time, the Chinese were quite active in the [plenary] room yesterday and not in a way that was helpful to the U.S. position [on the waiver]", he said.

Another diplomat from a smaller country backing the India waiver said the Americans had not been as energetic "in a sustained sort of way" as they might have been during and before the NSG sessions last month and this week. Asked for his assessment of the American role, the G-6 diplomat concurred, saying the U.S. "seems to have picked off all the easy targets from the list first and left the difficult countries for last".

On its part, the Indian delegation here acknowledged the going was tough to impossible. "If there is no agreement [Friday], I don't see much scope for this going into another round". "We are not talking about a third meeting. I don't think anybody is, because if it can't be done now, it can't be done then," official sources told The Hindu.


It seems the George W. Bush Administration has lost all influence over its Pipsqueak Allies.

The Lizard speaketh too much. What is China's plan?

- It could be to see to it, that the NSG Deal does not go through, with the intent to keep India down.
- It could be to bring about a round of acrimony between India and USA and weakening this partnership.
- It could be to force a breakdown of the NSG, in order to decrease US influence and hold.
- It could be to keep India out of civilian nuclear cooperation, so that China has greater access to nuclear fuel at lower rates.
- It could be to build up its own little group of influence in Europe and Oceania.
Last edited by RajeshA on 05 Sep 2008 14:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 05 Sep 2008 14:24

There are two things, which I find disconcerting in the new draft:

- Not only a supplier, who feels that the bilateral nuclear treaty with India has been violated, can bring the issue to the NSG, but rather any country can do so.

- During the time the matter is in discussion, the supplier countries would desist from continuing their supplies of trigger list items to India. Even though there is a need for consensus, which works in India's favor, there is no time limit, as to how long the matter can be considered to be in discussion. There is no time-limit to discussion.

I believe India should not concede these two points to the Pipsqueak. It is dangerous.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 05 Sep 2008 14:27

It would be nice if the whole affair convinces MMS of the devious role played by China and its puppets here. At the very least he should stop issuing bi-weekly certificates of patriotism to these mass murderers and traitors.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 05 Sep 2008 14:30

Suppiah wrote:It would be nice if the whole affair convinces MMS of the devious role played by China and its puppets here. At the very least he should stop issuing bi-weekly certificates of patriotism to these mass murderers and traitors.


At the same time, it provides those who are pro-deal to pound the Left Front, which must be feeling jubilant after the disclosure, how devious their patron, China, has been, and all the time, the Left Front have been fronting for the Lizard.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 14:41

One things for sure if US fails to convince the pipsqueaks and it becomes apparent they are rallying under China's banner then NSG is as good as dead if India walks out.

I don't see how France and Russia - or for the matter US companies - are going to sit around and do nothing as countries with no N-technology and with populations one fifth of Calcutta (as Blackwell pointed out) deny them potential business worth several 10s of billion dollars.

JMT
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 05 Sep 2008 14:49

Waiver likely, India's path clears at NSG : TimesNow.tv

With the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) failing to evolve a consensus on issue of 'nuclear-testing', India struggles to push the deal through in the all important meeting today (Septemeber 5). All eyes will be on Vienna once again, with hopes that the 45 member NSG gives India the green signal to take the Indo-US Nuclear deal to the US Congress.

Sources said that a possible breakthrough can be expected today over the now controversial N-deal. Insiders have said that the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) is beginning to tire under the relentless pressure to take a decision on the N-deal, with the 45 member cartel unable to move beyond the testing clause.

But sources say that the deal could perhaps have been struck. A possible compromise could be that the concerns of those who objected will be included in a tough-sounding Chairman's statement, which will be attached to the waiver. This after a number of countries in the 'holdout pen' are asking for similar language from the NSG that the US is asking for bilaterally.

Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee reacted on the NSG meet and said that there is no information on the NSG waiver as yet. He said, "There is no information on the waiver yet and whether NSG grants waiver or not is not a matter of speculation."

Diplomatic sources in Vienna told TIMES NOW that they are confident of getting the deal through by the end of the NSG session today. Sources say that most of the anti-deal lobby has been won over and the only two countries still holding out are Austria and New Zealand. Other countries who had some objections have been won over.

However the lone stumbling block for India remains China. The Chinese have not publicly opposed the deal at the NSG but are believed to be involved in diplomatic parleys with other countries to delay the deal and delay the exemption given by the NSG.

India makes last ditch effort to push deal

Senior Indian officials yesterday met representatives of the few sceptic member countries of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in an effort to persuade them to support the waiver for New Delhi.

Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon and Prime Minister's Special Envoy Shyam Saran met diplomats of these countries soon after the deliberations of the opening day of the two-day meeting of the NSG concluded.

The small group of countries including New Zealand, Austria, Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands and Switzerland have reservation to grant of waiver to India and raised questions at the NSG meeting, particularly with regards to nuclear testing issue.

The Indian delegation met diplomats of these countries in an attempt to allay their apprehensions. After the day-long deliberations, the NSG appeared to be close to a consensus but few members of the 45-nation grouping are still resisting the contentious issues whether or not there should be a ban on testing in the NSG waiver.

The sceptic countries want the NSG waiver to have a clause for termination of cooperation if India were to conduct a nuclear test. India is strongly opposed to such conditions being included in the NSG exemption and a compromise language in the draft waiver is being worked out.


The two holdouts: Austria and New Zealand

Latest developments on the NSG meet: TOI

NEW DELHI- According to TV channel TIMES NOW sources, a favourable decision is expected from the NSG meet today. NSG countries are believed to be not in favour of a third meeting.

Japan and China are said to be in favour of a consensus on the Indo-US nuclear deal.

Diplomatic sources say only New Zealand is holding out against the deal.

The United States has put pressure on Austria to agree to the deal, sources have revealed.


I thought, Austria would be the last holdout, and not NZ.

But then, that is the last thing that matters. :)
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 14:50

RajeshA wrote: At the same time, it provides those who are pro-deal to pound the Left Front, which must be feeling jubilant after the disclosure, how devious their patron, China, has been, and all the time, the Left Front have been fronting for the Lizard.


Not long ago, before the trust vote, the Left was being touted true Nationalists. :D

As I told you a while ago much water has flowed down the Ganga since then! :roll:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 05 Sep 2008 14:52

amit wrote:
RajeshA wrote: At the same time, it provides those who are pro-deal to pound the Left Front, which must be feeling jubilant after the disclosure, how devious their patron, China, has been, and all the time, the Left Front have been fronting for the Lizard.


Not long ago, before the trust vote, the Left was being touted true Nationalists. :D

As I told you a while ago much water has flowed down the Ganga since then! :roll:


Gosh, I must have slept through that millisecond. :D

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 05 Sep 2008 15:02

amit wrote:One things for sure if US fails to convince the pipsqueaks and it becomes apparent they are rallying under China's banner then NSG is as good as dead if India walks out.

I don't see how France and Russia - or for the matter US companies - are going to sit around and do nothing as countries with no N-technology and with populations one fifth of Calcutta (as Blackwell pointed out) deny them potential business worth several 10s of billion dollars.

JMT


They have been sitting quiet comfortably all these years (when they were desperate for customers), and will sit even more comfortably quiet now that global nuke market is opening up and it is boom time thanks to Putin/Chavez/Mulla Omar/Saudi Barbaria/Khameni and company. Expect some " I am sorry I heard your grandmother died" kind of condolences and then business as usual.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ranganathan » 05 Sep 2008 15:07

The left has never been considered nationalistic. It ould be an insult to true atriots and freedom fighters to compare them with these vermins like karat and yechuri.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby amit » 05 Sep 2008 15:22

Suppiah wrote: They have been sitting quiet comfortably all these years (when they were desperate for customers), and will sit even more comfortably quiet now that global nuke market is opening up and it is boom time thanks to Putin/Chavez/Mulla Omar/Saudi Barbaria/Khameni and company. Expect some " I am sorry I heard your grandmother died" kind of condolences and then business as usual.



You may be right.

On the other hand, this is the first time that India has clearly articulated its need and thrown in a US$100 billion figure into the ring. (Plus the small matter of nearly $10 billion MRCA contract).

There's also been these 2 NSG meetings, IAEA meeting, draft 123s that are reportedly ready with France and Russia and even preliminary (again according to news reports) identification of land and location and which plants would go to France and which to Russia. (Refer to the Washington Post article a few days ago).

A case of so near, yet so far - provided the waiver doesn't go thru? And for what some tiny countries with no relation to the N in nuclear technology being uppity.

IMVHO these factors might contribute to it not being business as usual. I think they'll realise that grandma is very much alive and well and ready for business.

JMT

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Philip » 05 Sep 2008 15:28

The US/Bush will not want to lose face globally.They will persuade the NSG nations that there is no need to oppose the deal,as India has been caught in a secret straitjacket,a self-imposed equivalent of "nuclear celibacy",thanks to the weakest ever PM in its history signing away its nuclear independence.This is why the "secert letter" has really been leaked,to convince the NSG nations that India has been secretly castrated.If for any reason a fe wnations hold out ,it may be that they are either exceptionally principled or that the PRC has got to them.Whatever the way the wind blows,the reputation of snake-oil Singh has been damaged beyond repair and he will ever be remembered as the man who sold the nation's nuclear independence away,despite the combined threat from Pak and China (who conspired together against India ,TOI article).

New Indian Express
http://epaper.newindpress.com/
"GO".

Times of India
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Chin ... 447395.cms

China tested nukes for Pakistan, gave design
5 Sep 2008, 1046 hrs IST, CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA,TNN

WASHINGTON: While an assortment of non-proliferation hardliners and hi-tech suppliers treat India with immense suspicion in the matter of nuclear trade predicated on tests, it turns out that the United States and the west were fully aware of Chinese nuclear weapons proliferation to Pakistan, including conducting a proxy test for it, as far back as 1990.

In some of the most startling revelations to emerge on the subject, a high-ranking former US official who was also a nuclear weapons designer has disclosed that ''in 1982 China's premier Deng Xiaoping began the transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan.''

The whistleblower isn't a think-tank academic or an unnamed official speaking on background. Thomas Reed, described as a former U.S ''nuclear weaponeer'' and a Secretary of the Air Force (1976-77) writes in the latest issue of Physics Today that China’s transfers to Pakistan included blueprints for the ultrasimple CHIC-4 design using highly enriched uranium, first tested by China in 1966. A Pakistani derivative of CHIC-4 apparently was tested in China on 26 May 1990, he adds.

Reed makes an even more stunning disclosure, saying Deng not only authorized proliferation to Pakistan, but also, "in time, to other third world countries.'' The countries are not named. He also says that during the 1990s, China conducted underground hydronuclear experiments—though not full-scale device tests—for France at Lop Nur.

Reed’s disclosures are based on his knowledge of and insights into the visits to China by Dan Stillman, a top US nuclear expert who went there several times in the late 1980s at Beijing invitation, in part because the Chinese wanted to both show-off and convey to the US the progress they had made in nuclear weaponisation.

One of Stillman's visit to the Shanghai Institute of Nuclear Research (SINR), writes Reed, ''also produced his first insight into the extensive hospitality extended to Pakistani nuclear scientists during that same late-1980s time period,'' which would eventually lead to the joint China-Pak nuclear test.

Chinese nuclear proliferation to Pakistan, including the supply of hi-tech items like ring magnets in the early 1990s, has always been known to the non-proliferation community (which largely slept on the reports). But this is the first time it has been confirmed by such a senior official.

In the late 1980s, both the Reagan and the George Bush Sr administration repeatedly fudged the issue to certify that Pakistan had not gone nuclear despite obvious evidence to the contrary.

In his assessment of the Chinese nuclear program based on Stillman’s visits, Reed writes admiringly about Beijing’s successes, saying ''Over a period of 15 years, an intellectually talented China achieved parity with the West and pre-eminence over its Asian peers in the design of nuclear weapons and in understanding underground nuclear testing.''

"China now stands in the first rank of nuclear powers," he concludes.

In trenchant observation, Reed writes, ''Any nuclear nation should consider its nuclear tests to be giant physics experiments. The Chinese weaponeers understood that well; other proliferators do not. Many states have considered their early nuclear shots to be political demonstrations or simple proof tests. In China, however, extremely sophisticated instrumentation was used on even the first nuclear test.''

Chronicling the progress of China’s nuclear weapons program, Reed writes: Atop a tower on 16 October 1964, China's first nuclear device, 596, was successfully fired. US intelligence analysts were astonished by the lack of plutonium in the fallout debris and by the speed with which China had broken into the nuclear club, but that was only the beginning.

Eighteen months later, in the spring of 1966, China entered the thermonuclear world with the detonation of a boosted-fission, airdropped device that used lithium-6, a primary source of tritium when bombarded with neutrons. That test, their third, achieved a yield of 200–300 kilotons. By the end of the year, they made the leap to multistage technology with a large two-stage experiment that yielded only 122 kilotons, but it again displayed 6Li in the bomb debris.

The Chinese then closed the circle on 17 June 1967, unambiguously marching into the H-bomb club with a 3.3-megaton burst from an aircraft-delivered weapon. On 27 December 1968, the Chinese bid the Johnson administration farewell with an improved, airdropped 3-megaton thermonuclear device that for the first time used plutonium in the primary.

It is clear from the reactor-to-bomb progression times that by 1968 China had unequivocally entered the European nuclear cartel on a par with the U, says Reed. Furthermore, China had become a thermonuclear power. It had achieved the leap from the initial A-bomb test to a 3.3-megaton thermonuclear blast in a record-breaking 32 months. It had taken the US more than seven years to accomplish that feat.


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