India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

SwamyG
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby SwamyG » 05 Sep 2008 20:41

Yes, the US media is kind of in the bed with its Government when it comes to foreign affairs. So how come the media and public tears anybody who even remotely says anything against national interest - civilian or military? Even the progressives say, Diplomacy first and then War. They are not really opposed to war.

But our desi media? It's role is to be the truly fourth estate! Question the government all the time.

In all this chukker, was any of our investigative journalists able to list which countries stand to gain the most. Which countries stand to lose the most? The tangible and intangible gains and losses to some of the key players? It would be nice to read if the media is able to say: If the deal goes through Australia stands to gain/lose this and that. If the deal falls through India stands to gain/lose this and that. There are so many key players in this USA, India, China, Australia, Pakistan etc etc. There are so many disjointed dots over the years, but not a good executive summary connecting the dots has been presented to the public.

Maybe it is not the job of journalists to do that. But it would be heck of a job. Maybe it is a job for the think tanks groups.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 05 Sep 2008 20:45

John Snow

John Snow wrote:That is why I suggested a complete confidence motions be tabled.


Not clear on what is meant by "complete confidence motions". It was a complete confidence motion which MMS won in the parliament. Had he lost the "confidence motion" only then, "no confidence motion" would have been tabled.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 05 Sep 2008 20:49

RajeshA wrote:Thank you for the CRE information. :)



Look up Lynn Davies who was Under Secy in Clinton Admin who came up with the policy goals. She was staffer in the Carter Admin and got her first exposure to diplomacy in those days.

This is a game which needs long memories and a lot of reading.

However that doesnt stop members from prescribing what India should do after attending seminars funded by such luminaries!

SwamyG, Thats why BRF has the psy-ops and media watch thread for a longtime. Indian press is a product of the Independence struggle. After Independecen the papers were bought by business houses and used as in house opinion sheets. Its sceptical of the Govt. version of the facts. Foreign investments in the press has transformed this into a Western interests bastion.
Off late it has become alienated from the governance and acts as an anti-national media. However it has its onw idea of what is nationalism. In short its adherence to a Western Secular creed. So that makes it anti-nationalist and anti Hindu.

Off-course folks thinks its psy-ops to have such a thread itself!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 05 Sep 2008 20:52

If nothing else we have to thank the nuke deal for creating some strange spectacles in our media and political landscape. How else do you explain a hardcore right-wing columnist like Chellaney getting so much column space from Chindu and left and right taking same position? Wont be surprised if we next have NRam and Karat wearing khaki shorts and seeking dharshan from Sudharshan.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Suppiah » 05 Sep 2008 20:54

ramana wrote:Its a political statement and not techinical. Its interesting that minro flunkeys talk big statements from INC while the bigwigs embrace inscrutable silence.


Bigwigs - you mean plural? Since when?!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Nitesh » 05 Sep 2008 21:01

still hanging in balance

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/NSG_ ... 447952.cms



NSG meet: India hits Austrian roadblock
5 Sep 2008, 2100 hrs IST,AGENCIES

VIENNA: Austria on Friday said "some work still" needed to be done in the draft waiver for India to clinch a consensus before the green signal for the Indo-US nuclear deal can be given by the NSG whose members broke for informal discussions after two rounds of informal parleys.

Austria, which is believed to be still holding up a consensus for approving the US draft waiver which will help India resume nuclear commerce, wants some "auxilliary measures" to be incorporated in the crucial document. Ireland is another country which is reportedly still sceptical over the draft in the present form.

"Some work still needs to be done. Number of mirror images need to be added to the current talks and ideas in the draft...we want to have more effective and qualitatively improved security architecture," said Peter Launsky, an Austrian foreign ministry official.

A western diplomat, who did not want to be identified, said at the end of the second round of the second day of the crucial meeting of the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG): "It can be a surprise" when asked about the possible outcome of the discussions.

Asked whether the decision could be in favour of India or against, he said "I can't say. It can be for, it can be against."

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 05 Sep 2008 21:04

Ramana

quote:
"CRE= Cap, Rollback, Eliminate A policy goal of the US Admins for India since Jimmy Carter.[/quote]"

Sure, but India's goal has been complete opposite of US Admins goal and one sees it is only India achieving its goal.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 05 Sep 2008 21:06

News Update from S Vardarajan

Nuclear deal at end of road
Siddharth Varadarajan

Vienna: The Group of Six like-minded states are continuing to insist on a clear "cause and effect" link between a future Indian atomic test and the termination of nuclear supplies and will block approval of the United States proposal to allow commerce with India when the Nuclear Suppliers Group reconvenes here Friday.

The six countries holding out for tougher conditions to be written into the draft proposal granting India an exemption from the NSG's rules are Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, the Netherlands and Switzerland. But the coalition is a shifting one and the six are getting support from other countries on some of the demands they are making. At the same time, the number of countries pushing for approval of the exemption has also grown, say diplomats. Under the 45-nation cartel's rules of consensus decision-making, howver, even one country has the right to block a decision.

A lengthy meeting between the U.S. and the G-6 ended inconclusively late on Thursday night with the latter refusing to accept any dilution of their demands. "There are still very different views on both sides. We made some progress on minor issues but on the principal questions, there has been no movement", a diplomat from one of the six countries told The Hindu. "I can't see any way to bridge the divide", he added. "Not unless a major shift in position [by India and the U.S.] occurs".

The single biggest obstacle is the demand of the six that the waiver for India be made strictly conditional on not violating the non-proliferation commitments it had made in order to get the waiver in the first place. The group of like-minded nations was not insisting on an explicit mention of nuclear testing, the diplomat said. "But we are giving this exemption on the basis of these commitments and if those commitments are no longer being observed, the basis for the exemption will no longer be there".


Automatic cut-off of supplies in the event of India abandoning its moratorium on nuclear testing "has been our absolute bottom line from the beginning," said the diplomat, "and there is no question of it being dropped". At the same time, he conceded that more than India, it was the "big supplier nations" like Russia and France that were opposing automaticity of termination. "We know the U.S. is committed to terminating supplies [if India tests] but we don't want to leave the decision within the NSG to each individual PG [participating government]".

The other big issue remaining is access to enrichment and reprocessing equipment and technology. The six want so-called sensitive nuclear technologies to be excluded from the purview of the waiver.

Noting that the six were receiving support from different countries on different issues, the diplomat described the position taken by China as "interesting". "After remaining silent all this time, the Chinese were quite active in the [plenary] room yesterday and not in a way that was helpful to the U.S. position [on the waiver]", he said.

Another diplomat from a smaller country backing the India waiver said the Americans had not been as energetic "in a sustained sort of way" as they might have been during and before the NSG sessions last month and this week. Asked for his assessment of the American role, the G-6 diplomat concurred, saying the U.S. "seems to have picked off all the easy targets from the list first and left the difficult countries for last".

Further progress on India waiver at NSG talks. PTI report from Vienna:

India's case for a clean and unconditional waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) got a boost on the second day of its discussions today after New Delhi's reaffirmation of its commitment to non-proliferation goals.

The statement of External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee in New Delhi generated a "momentum" at the discussions in the 45-member nuclear cartel, which welcomed and praised it.

"This is a very significant statement which was discussed by the NSG members and praised and welcomed by those in attendance.


"So on this basis we believe a momentum has been generated in the discussions," US acting Under Secretary of State for Arms Control John Rood told reporters after the morning round of discussions on the second day of deliberations.

A few countries are still said to be having some questions, particularly on the issue of nuclear testing by India, when they put forth their expressions during the morning session on the second day of the NSG meeting. Efforts are still under way to assuage their concerns, diplomats said.

"We are pleased that there was a positive momentum in the discussions," Rood said before the lunch break.

The US official emphasised that his country remained committed to securing the exception for India and was optimistic on achieving the goal.

"We are both committed to achieving the objective and achieving consensus and are optimistic that we can achieve the goal," he said.

and Hindu editorial

Devastating blow to nuclear deal









The cat is finally out of the bag. It is now official that the Bush and Manmohan Singh administrations have no common or agreed understanding on vital aspects of the Indo-U.S. deal for civilian nuclear cooperation. A detailed official Bush administration letter, dated January 16, 2008, which answered 45 political-technical questions submitted in October 2007 by Tom Lantos, the then chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, was considered so sensitive from an Indian political standpoint that the State Department ensured that it was kept secret even though it was not a classified document. The current chairman of the House Committee, Howard L. Berman, has chosen to make the text of the State Department’s answers public — because, his spokesperson explained, if the Nuclear Suppliers Group, meeting in Vienna, approved a revised U.S. proposal to exempt India from the requirement of full-scope safeguards as a condition of civilian nuclear exports, the 123 agreement would go to Congress, which naturally needed to be well informed. But so do India’s Parliament and people because the strategic stakes — and risks — are much higher for India.

What is clear is that in the official Washington view, there will be no ‘full civilian nuclear cooperation’; indeed the U.S. administration has specifically assured Congress that it has ruled out the transfer of reprocessing and enrichment equipment and technology to India. More importantly, Washington is blindingly clear that the whole arrangement will collapse should India conduct another nuclear explosive test — that is the red line India shall not cross. But post-termination, India will have no choice but to continue safeguards in perpetuity ‘without condition’ and, in any case, its countervailing measures (‘corrective measures,’ ‘reasonable operating requirements,’ and ‘strategic reserve’) lack definition and concreteness. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and other high-level representatives of his government have repeatedly claimed that there is nothing in the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal that prevents India from conducting further nuclear explosive tests. Washington is clear that India cannot test the agreement and have it too. Specifically, “should India detonate a nuclear explosive device, the United States has the right to cease all nuclear cooperation with India immediately, including the supply of fuel, as well as to request the return of any items transferred from the United States, including fresh fuel.” The official Bush administration position, evidently known to the Indian government, is that the fuel supply assurances, under Article 5.6 of the 123 agreement, are “intended to guard against disruption of fuel supply to India that might occur through no fault of India’s own,” for example, on account of a trade war, market disruptions, or the failure of a company to fulfil a fuel supply contract. They are “not ... meant to insulate India against the consequences of a nuclear explosive test or a violation of non-proliferation commitments.” In this crucial respect, the 123 is of a piece with the Hyde Act — and the Manmohan Singh government’s claims and assurances go up in smoke.


Raj_Singh, I dont understnad you post. What is its intent?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 05 Sep 2008 21:12

Quote:

"I feel India needs to be a lot more vocal and proactive on non-proliferation while still working to break the inequalities by producing more potent weapon systems. That is the only language the West understands.[/quote]"

Words on this can cut both ways. And most likely come back to haunt, in this context.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 05 Sep 2008 21:19

Ramana

Quote:

"Raj_Singh, I dont understnad you post. What is its intent?[/quote]"

Merely to state that US and India both have their own goals, and at times, both can be on opposite side and still do business.

Actually, my own chain of thoughts on this has got broken. May come back on this later.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 05 Sep 2008 21:51

Ramana

Quote:

"Raj_Singh, I dont understnad you post. What is its intent?"

Earlier there was a post saying:


All this assumes that US has fooled/forced MMS to go for this CRE charade. What if the current ruling dispensation is using the US bogey to actually do the CRE themselves for various reasons?


Followed by:

CRE= Cap, Rollback, Eliminate A policy goal of the US Admins for India since Jimmy Carter.


Above seems to be suggesting that US may have come close to achieving its goal. To this I wrote earlier that it is India who has been more sucessful in achieving her goal.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 05 Sep 2008 22:16

Hey, it's 6:30 pm in Prussia - the OPEC (Organization of Poo Exporting Counties) goons must have gone into their booze-and-cheese reception by now. No news?

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 05 Sep 2008 22:24

Narayanan

[quote]Hey, it's 6:30 pm in Prussia - the OPEC (Organization of Poo Exporting Counties) goons must have gone into their booze-and-cheese reception by now. No news?[/quote]

May turn out to be good news for India with a clean and unconditional waiver from NSG.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 05 Sep 2008 22:39

Some aspects of this cross post (from International nuke thread) has bearing on Indian nuclear systems.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I was busy with realities of life last few weeks and did not read this article.

RajeshA wrote:That is a very interesting Article in PhysicsToday:

The Chinese nuclear tests: 1964 - 1996: PDF

Stilman's visit to the SINR (05.04.1990) also produced his first insight into the extensive hospitality extended to Pakistani nuclear scientists during that same late-1980s time period. As we shall see, that cooperation, initiated earlier in the decade, led to a joint nuclear test in China soon after Stillman's departure.

In 1982 China's premier Deng Xiaping began the transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and, in time, to other third world countries. Those transfers included blueprints for the ultrasimple CHIC-4 design using highly enriched uranium, first tested by China in 1966.

A Pakistani derivative of CHIC-4 apparently was tested in China on 26 May 1990.


Another set of interesting statements: http://ptonline.aip.org/journals/doc/PH ... 47_1.shtml
For one thing, the Chinese probably sought deterrence. An American awareness of Chinese nuclear capabilities should lead to a more cautious American military posture around Taiwan and in the Pacific Ocean. Or perhaps it was an intelligence gimmick. Chinese scientists often displayed the inner workings of their technical devices to American visitors just to see how they would react. A raised eyebrow or a sudden scowl could confirm or discount a year's work. Maybe Chinese nuclear technology was no longer top secret. With the coming of Deng Xiaoping's regime around 1980, the proliferation of nuclear technology into the third world had become state policy. Perhaps it was time to let the Americans have a look.

The tour next brought Stillman face-to-face with another of the mysterious visitors to New Mexico: the director of the Southwest Institute of Fluid Physics—a euphemism for the Chinese high explosives test facilities. That institute has access to nine test facilities: three outdoors in the hills well beyond Science City and six containment vessels—large steel spheres that contain the energy released by a few pounds of high explosive. The explosives are wrapped around heavy metals simulating uranium, and the vessels are sealed so as to recover the valuable and sometimes toxic metals involved in the experiment. Four large containment vessels were located in Science City and two smaller ones were housed indoors at the Institute of Applied Physics in Chengdu. All the test facilities were carefully instrumented to collect reams of data. The Chinese scientists were not simply conducting proof-of-principle tests; they wanted to understand the dynamics of nuclear pit implosions.

Some one earlier in the thread asked/suggested # of testes by various N weapons states and number of tests India needs in the next round. I like the terms used here. The number of tests is dependent on how many tests needed for "proof-of-principle" and how many to "understand the nuclear dynamics". The The former is "proof for deterrence" and the latter the "proof of capability". "Proof of capability" is a poor substitute for "Proof for deterrence".

BTW high energy LIF gives "Proof of capability" and to some extent "Proof of deterrence".

The Chinese scientists also understood the impact of thermal cycling on high explosives; they did not allow their nuclear weapons to remain exposed to sunlight for extended periods of time.

That led Stillman to raise a discussion of weapons security: "Do Chinese nuclear weapons contain design features or protective devices to preclude their unauthorized use?" The NINT director responded that terrorism was not a consideration in their nuclear weapons designs, that Chinese discipline precluded unauthorized use. At that time the Chinese weapons program relied on "politically reliable" guards, not electronics. The director did agree, however, that those safety and security policies needed to change. I suspect that such changes have since taken place.

They then revisited Science City, where Stillman learned far more than on his first trip there. For example, he was able to inspect the high-explosive test facilities. Adjacent to those test chambers were impressive flash x-ray machines, designed to illuminate implosions as they took place. Framing cameras nearby could operate at millions of frames per second. Pins within the imploding spheres delivered further data on implosion symmetry. The technology was state-of-the- art by any standard.


Haa... this one is a gem. All roads lead to Rome!!
The VIPs attending the Stillman visit had flown in from Beijing. Most spoke excellent English, and it seemed like they all talked about their children's achievements in the US. Even the engineer responsible for drilling vertical test shafts at Lop Nur had worked in the US during World War II; by 1990 his children were all enrolled in America's top engineering schools. The midnight barbecue in the Chinese desert seemed much like a cookout in the hills above Los Alamos.


The following give insight to diameter of hand digged shafts which are expected to be of smaller diameter than digging with any sort of mechanized drilling rig. Thus Ramana's estimation of Shakti-1 shaft depth based on the WOP data on the area of metal sheet used for wall containment and estimated diameter (based on Shakti photo and other description in WOP) is in agreement with this Chinese data point. That calculation clearly indicated that the shaft was for significantly higher yield than 45kt.
At the time of Stillman's visit, drilling rigs were at work on 2- to 2.5-m diameter holes for nuclear device emplacement. Drilling technology was archaic by US standards; the drillers were advancing through the underlying granite at a rate of only two meters per day.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Arun_S » 05 Sep 2008 22:51

narayanan wrote:High time the videsh karyalai mantri came out with that. I guess Pages 2-5 of the statement got left out - those with the contradictory instructions like:
1. Applicants are instructed to send 3 (four) photographs of 2.5375cm x 3.2954cm in triplicate.
2. For return of passport enclose self-addressed envelope with US post office money order for return postage by Federal Express.
......

The main problem is that the articulation of detailed policy is left to the papparazzi and the NPAs. This statement is excellent. Of course it reads like a meek surrender of the Unconditional Right To Commit Immediate National Suicide... :eek:

:twisted: :rotfl:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby ramana » 05 Sep 2008 23:20

So this is third revision. India better watch carefully. I dont like this changes on the fly to accomodate all and sundry and articifical deadlines form US. How do we know some additional changes are not slipping in?

NSG Draft may be altered

I think this last one will be a doosy.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 05 Sep 2008 23:27

If they haven't walked out yet, at this point they are likely to say yes to pretty much anything. Happy to be proven wrong, of course, but I suspect this is it, NSG is through once US comes back with words.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby nkumar » 05 Sep 2008 23:48

The language will be "tortured" to suit both the parties. I also suspect that there will be a mention of moratorium on testing in the Chairman's statement. Its effect will be felt later on.

After the NSG waiver, there will be long discussions if the waiver is clean or not. Note that the pro-dealers (even on BRF) are only talking about clean exemption, I wonder what happened to the unconditional part!!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby John Snow » 06 Sep 2008 00:10

The strategic partnership with uncle in full flow and Rice servings in abundence, GOI has learnt the art of spinning from Spincity!
Unconditional and clean waiver from NSG became
Clean waiver from NSG (with a little waver) :((
Clean NSG agreement became
Just NSG agreement (with a little pressure from unkil and his thugs)

Is now welcome with pleasure. :mrgreen:

Bikari government will always be bikari goverment, the best GUBO in subcontinent.

Everything is now subjective and prone to interpretation execept our Bums :rotfl:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby A Arun » 06 Sep 2008 00:17

NDTV reports China has all of a sudden become vocal about their oppossition in the last moments of the negotiations. They don't want India to have nucreal dear!

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby John Snow » 06 Sep 2008 00:18

"Keep at a safe distance" [i]in relations with unkil[/i]
Spinster 1998.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 06 Sep 2008 00:19

Clearly this is unconditionally wavering and 400% clean (it is being waved in clean air of Vienna, Austria, not Cooum river or Mumbai near Chattrapati Shivaji airport). Maybe like Kruschev at UN, Austrian Delegate is waving his clean shoes and New Zealand Delegate is Mooning with clean underwear on and waving her clean 100% New ChristChurch Wool sweater.

So how can anyone say this is not clean and unconditional waving? :?:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 06 Sep 2008 00:23

India, U.S. chip away opposition to nuclear deal by Mark Heinrich: Reuters

VIENNA (Reuters) - Forty-five countries considering lifting a ban on nuclear trade with India welcomed an Indian pledge on Friday to honour non-proliferation pacts it has not signed, but some felt it did not go far enough, diplomats said.

At stake is the survival of a controversial U.S.-India nuclear cooperation deal, a major initiative of President George W. Bush's administration which risks an uncertain fate if left to his successor.

For the deal to go ahead, Washington and New Delhi need the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to grant a one-off waiver of its ban on nuclear trade with India, an atomic weapons state outside the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which tested bombs in 1974 and 1998.

Pushing for the waiver, India said it rejected any nuclear arms race and reaffirmed a voluntary moratorium on tests.

An Indian Foreign Ministry statement also said India endorsed strict NSG rules against the spread of nuclear weapons, backed global nuclear disarmament objectives and aimed to institute broader U.N. inspections of its nuclear facilities.

If Washington cannot secure an NSG exemption within days, the U.S. Congress may run out of time to ratify the deal before it adjourns at the end of September for elections, relegating the matter to an uncertain fate under a new president.

Decisions by the nuclear export cartel must be unanimous.

STRATEGIC PACT

Washington says the nuclear cooperation deal with New Delhi would forge a strategic partnership with the world's largest democracy, help India meet exploding energy demand in an environmentally friendly way and open a nuclear market worth billions of dollars for Western firms.

NSG states praised New Delhi's gesture on Friday as an important, timely step forward, diplomats said. John Rood, acting U.S. undersecretary of state for arms control and international security, said it had added "positive momentum".

"On (that) basis the United States remains committed to the objective of achieving consensus and optimistic about achieving that goal," Rood told reporters. He declined to take questions.

But some diplomats and analysts noted India's statement repeated known positions and did not fully allay fears for the integrity of the NPT.

NSG critics fear India could use access to nuclear material markets indirectly to boost its bomb programme and drive nuclear rival and fellow NPT outsider Pakistan into another arms race.

"Voluntary declarations do not have the same value as a (binding) NSG text," one diplomat said.

But others said later a bloc of six holdouts demanding a clause stipulating an automatic cessation of the waiver if India tested another weapon had been cut to four after Norway and Netherlands agreed to less precise language.

Only Ireland, Austria and New Zealand were sticking to a tough line on testing, they said. Whether Switzerland's stance had changed was not immediately clear.

The diplomat said the general consensus among U.S. and other diplomats was that "the three will come on board at some point". But China caused an additional complication when its delegation announced it needed to break and return to Beijing.

The diplomat said Washington wanted "to keep pushing along, using the clock as an ally to turn the three hold-outs, so the Chinese comment is problematic."


That is really the lowest the Lizard can fall to. :evil:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 06 Sep 2008 00:26

I wonder what happened when Sonia Gandhi went to Beijing for the Olympics (I thought she did?). I thought the govt. had connected well with well-known anti-national forces (CPI, China...)?

Of course, there is no reason to expect any different from China. Their silence was what was surprising. This might very well be the game between China and the US played through the EU states. The US' own divided loyalties not counting.


S

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby John Snow » 06 Sep 2008 00:35

So how can anyone say this is not clean and unconditional waving? :?:


Simble

Because Clean is a condtion :mrgreen:

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 06 Sep 2008 00:38

I propose, GoI should put up a Nuclear Deal Museum/Gallery in New Delhi, with several rooms devoted to the various NSG Members. Each Room should have several large paintings of backside orifices, rectum and the intestines, you know, in really vibrant colours. These should represent all the orifices India had to crawl up (German metaphor) to get the NSG Waiver. There should be protocols of our begging pasted next to these paintings, and how hard it was for our H&D.

There should be a Monument to our shame, so that for the next 500 years, no Indian ever forgives the Austrians, Kiwis, Irish, Swiss, Norwegian and the Dutch, always remain suspicious to the American devious double game, and always be on guard from the Lizard.

For this War of Independence (from Nuclear Apartheid), India did not have to give a sacrifice of blood, but of our dignity, and without belittling the sacrifice of our forefathers for our Independence, would like to say, that it hurts nevertheless. And this sacrifice also needs a Monument.

JMT

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 06 Sep 2008 00:45

John Snow

"Keep at a safe distance" in relations with unkil


Times have changed... and so has India. India of today is much more confident. It is not an India of 70/80s.

Isn't there a dialogue in Godfather movie to the effect.."Keep your friends close but enemies closer"..

Though I am not suggesting at all that US is an enemy of India

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby NRao » 06 Sep 2008 00:48

Words on this can cut both ways. And most likely come back to haunt, in this context.


India is doing both today - building nukes and circulating non-proliferation plans in the UN. So, how can it come to haunt?

Besides it is the GoIs job to make sure that it does not come back to haunt!!! I find the GoI, considering that it has a supposedly roaring economy, etc and a billion+ people to be rather timid most of the times. They can be more forceful, I would think.

Why is it at this juncture 6 meaningless countries have taken this stand - even if it with US collusion - is beyond explanation, IMHO.

What will come back to haunt is the lack of transparency - the Hindu editorial is an example, where people expect what a PM states only to realize that he is either duping or being duped.

I feel that India and Indians have to realize that India is the victim here and the real perpetrators of the crime are still on the streets of the 6-packs and all.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby putnanja » 06 Sep 2008 00:49

Nuclear deal staring at NSG dead-end

Nuclear deal staring at NSG dead-end

Siddharth Varadarajan

Vienna: With the Group of Six like-minded states continuing to insist on a clear “cause and effect” link between a future Indian atomic test and the termination of nuclear supplies, the Nuclear Suppliers Group was all set to remain deadlocked over the United States proposal to allow nuclear commerce with India.

At the time of going to press, the NSG plenary had slipped into its third recess of the day in order to enable further consultations between the U.S. and the six hold-outs.

The six countries holding out for tougher conditions to be written into the draft proposal granting India an exemption from the NSG’s rules are Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, the Netherlands and Switzerland. But the coalition is a shifting one and the six are getting support from other countries on some of the demands they are making. At the same time, the number of countries pushing for approval of the exemption has also grown, say diplomats. Under the 45-nation cartel’s rules of consensus decision-making, however, even one country has the right to block a decision.

A lengthy meeting between the U.S. and the G-6 ended inconclusively late on Thursday night with the latter refusing to accept any dilution of their demands. “There are still very different views on both sides. We made some progress on minor issues but on the principal questions, there has been no movement,” a diplomat from one of the six countries told The Hindu. “I can’t see any way to bridge the divide,” he added. “Not unless a major shift in position [by India and the U.S.] occurs.”

The statement by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee reiterating India’s disarmament commitments and its unilateral, voluntary moratorium was warmly welcomed by most NSG members but failed to break the deadlock. “We welcome it but it is not enough to resolve the outstanding difficulties with the main text [of the waiver],” said a diplomat from a G-6 country.

“Voluntary declarations do not have the same value as agreed NSG text,” he added.

The single biggest obstacle is the demand of the six that the waiver for India be made strictly conditional on not violating the non-proliferation commitments it had made in order to get the waiver in the first place. The group of like-minded nations was not insisting on an explicit mention of nuclear testing, the diplomat said. “But we are giving this exemption on the basis of these commitments and if those commitments are no longer being observed, the basis for the exemption will no longer be there.”

Automatic cut-off of supplies in the event of India abandoning its moratorium on nuclear testing “has been our absolute bottom line from the beginning” said the diplomat, “and there is no question of it being dropped.” At the same time, he conceded that more than India, it was the “big supplier nations” like Russia and France that were opposing automaticity of termination. “We know the U.S. is committed to terminating supplies [if India tests] but we don’t want to leave the decision within the NSG to each individual PG [participating government].”

The other big issue remaining is access to enrichment and reprocessing equipment and technology. The six want so-called sensitive nuclear technologies to be excluded from the purview of the waiver.
China’s position

Noting that the six were receiving support from different countries on different issues, the diplomat described the position taken by China as “interesting.” “After remaining silent all this time, the Chinese were quite active in the [plenary] room yesterday [Thursday] and not in a way that was helpful to the U.S. position [on the waiver],” he said.

Another diplomat from a smaller country backing the India waiver said the Americans had not been as energetic “in a sustained sort of way” as they might have been during and before the NSG sessions last month and this week.


Asked for his assessment of the American role, the G-6 diplomat concurred, saying the U.S. “seems to have picked off all the easy targets from the list first and left the difficult countries for last.”

On its part, the Indian delegation here acknowledged the going was tough to impossible. “If there is no agreement [Friday], I don’t see much scope for this going into another round.” “We are not talking about a third meeting. I don’t think anybody is, because if it can’t be done now, it can’t be done then,” official sources told The Hindu.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby John Snow » 06 Sep 2008 00:53

A joke circulating in Paris early in 1919 held that the peacemaking Council of Four, representing Britain, France, the U.S. and Italy, was busy preparing a "just and lasting war." Six months of parleying concluded on June 28 with Germany's coerced agreement to a treaty no Allied statesman had fully read, according to MacMillan, a history professor at the University of Toronto


(cross posted from Book Review thread as posted by Acharya.
Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World
by Margaret MacMillan (Author), Richard Holbrooke (Foreword))

I thought this has relavance to the 123 J18 etc

Raj Singh, Keeping at a safe distance be it friend or foe is always desirable.

India has changed but unkil has not changed his vision, only tatctics.

Remember what CIA chief said after 1998 Shakthi series, We have not been paying attention to India, it will change, after the company was on recruiting spree, with 9-11 everything fell in place to pursue even more vigoursly....

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 06 Sep 2008 00:57

This historic document needs the usual careful analysis.

"Mehru Jaffer, Indo-Asian News Service
Vienna, September 04, 2008
First Published: 19:45 IST(4/9/2008)
Last Updated: 19:56 IST(4/9/2008)
NSG draft may be altered to accomodate members' concerns"

IOW, this is old and dated Sep. 4, which was yesterday

"The US has pledged to revise the draft and serious attempts are being made in that direction," a diplomat attending the two-day meeting said.

They are trying to find someone who knows how to use the "tracking" feature in MSWORD

William Burns, US under secretary of state for political affairs who was specially flown in to Vienna by the Bush administration for the occasion, also confirmed that attempts were on to accommodate concerns of NSG members.

"While a number of representatives here have raised important questions that need to be addressed, the discussion have been constructive and really aimed at reaching an early consensus," Burns said while addressing a press conference within two hours of the NSG meeting.
Season tickets to the Swiss resorts were liberally passed around. Also several packets of BROOKLAX chocolate candy.

The NSG members broke their first session after three hours (effect of BROOKLAX) and went into an extended lunch break that lasted nearly four hours. [i]very short, by Spanish and Belgian standards [/i]

The long break was used for consultations with the Indian delegation that included Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon and the prime minister's special representative Shyam Saran to see whether the new language in the draft was acceptable to them. The light beer seemed to have no effect compared to 400-proof Kerala "Canal-Perungi" and Bombay hooch

But indications suggest that it will be more of a tweaking with the language in the draft rather than preparing yet another document. (Where it said: "Hereinafter referred to as NSG" it will be changed to "Hereinafter referred to as NSG and Six-Pack")

"The truth is that before us we have a historic opportunity to end more than three decades of India's isolation from the nuclear regime and that opportunity warrants the extraordinary efforts we are making," Burns told reporters. Meaning, more than 2 hours of work in a day.

"The steps we are considering for India will strengthen non-proliferation and help to welcome one of the world's largest economies and the world's largest democracy more fully into the global fold," Burns, who is Washington's pointsman on the India-US nuclear deal, said. (as opposed to "fully")

"I believe we are making steady progress in this process and that we will continue to make progress," Burns added. (IOW, the plane is still on the taxiway, and there are only 25 ahead of it waiting to be de-iced and there's 20 minutes left for the pilot's 8-hours to be up)

Six countries in the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers' Group that were opposed to a "clean waiver" for India said they were going to play a "constructive role" in the meeting. i.e., building barriers and booby traps

"Austria, along with like-minded countries is going into the meeting in a constructive spirit to work jointly together," a senior Austrian diplomat told IANS minutes before the meeting began. But not with anyone else.

The six countries were keen to bring in provisions to halt all commerce with India if it conducted another nuclear test. (and they may get their wish whether there is a test or not, and whether there is an NSG waiver or not. :twisted: )

All decisions in the 45-member NSG are taken by consensus and therefore support of every single country who are part of the cartel is important. (like the Loya Jirga.)
...
The Austrian diplomat said: "The package on the table (the new draft prepared by the US) needs to be worked out jointly by NSG members before it is ready to contribute to international security concerns."

Speaking on behalf of the "other like-minded countries" the diplomat said: "Both the US and India were playing a 'constructive role' to bring Indian into the nuclear market and we are ready to play our part." (on behalf of Beijing)

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby John Snow » 06 Sep 2008 01:01

Notice the Gang of NSG, of which India is not a member, every one of them directly or indirectly proliferated and profited.

So this is not the right time to join the club, follow the tradition with left right center proliferation, they will welcome having met the qualification instead of this entry with trepidation!

Way to go, give fuel rods to vietnam, and they will gently lower them into bamboo casings then into dragons right orifices to achieve criticality while we play the "Dong Feng" The East is Led ( the bootom east part of dragon will be Led due to Fast breeding)
Last edited by John Snow on 06 Sep 2008 01:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 06 Sep 2008 01:03

NRao

India is doing both today - building nukes and circulating non-proliferation plans in the UN. So, how can it come to haunt?


My response was to the part where it says, "more vocal".

Besides it is the GoIs job to make sure that it does not come back to haunt


There hardly is any govt in the world who makes or can make more noise (more vocal) and the words do not come back to haunt them. Even now, when NZ, Austria and few others want to have this deal through but due to their own "noise" of past in relation to non proliferation are in difficult position.

Also, it is a matter of enforcement.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby Sean » 06 Sep 2008 01:05

If NSG waiver does not come through. here's what India should do:

Get the private sector involved(TATA, Reliance, L&T) to expedite the second and third stage of thorium reactor program. This way the cash strapped GOI can get private sector to pony up the capital, in exchange for GOI guarantees on purchase of power from thorium plants. Hopefully, Russia can be incentivised to supply Pu to breed even larger amounts of Pu for the third stage. Is it not possible for Russians to agree to build/supply second stage FTBR/Pu fuel under the current agreement?

Expedite the development of Agni V missile program. India should hold off on testing until it is a much larger economy, and has made substantial progress on thorium reactors.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby raj_singh » 06 Sep 2008 01:07

NRao

What will come back to haunt is the lack of transparency - the Hindu editorial is an example, where people expect what a PM states only to realize that he is either duping or being duped.


Lack of transparency is nothing new. This is how govts the world over operate/govern. I fully understand in the context it has been said that there is/was lack of transparency.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby harbans » 06 Sep 2008 01:11

^^Narayan Ji..just brilliant. You have a great analogical imagination. I'd really love to see NZ and Austria sitting along with China murdering the Deal. That will be some consolation.
Last edited by harbans on 06 Sep 2008 01:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby samuel » 06 Sep 2008 01:12

John Snow wrote:India has changed but unkil has not changed his vision, only tatctics.


The US has had the least motivation to change objectives, though her methods are never static. Inertia will catch up soon enough. In the meanwhile, more reformulations of a new-world order, while things start to erode in its null-space, so to say.

Remember what CIA chief said after 1998 Shakthi series, We have not been paying attention to India, it will change, after the company was on recruiting spree, with 9-11 everything fell in place to pursue even more vigoursly....


Is this still a spree? We can confirm the "I'm here to help you" visitors here in at least one institute or university in the northeast US around 9-11. It was pretty serious until they entered Iraq, then it became funny.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby enqyoob » 06 Sep 2008 01:12

Seems like it's time to announce a reopening of the Iran Pipeline project, this time a seabed pipeline across the Mumbai sea.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby RajeshA » 06 Sep 2008 01:12

India should simply start boycotting Davos, Geneva and Vienna for starters. If some Conference wishes India's participation, then it should take place somewhere else. One takes away, World Economic Forum, WTO Talks and IAEA Headquarters, and these countries become the backwaters, they should always have been.

That is how one hurts them, by boycotting all these Conferences.

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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 1 sep 2008

Postby munna » 06 Sep 2008 01:13

I had vowed never to post again after the mods refused us the right to criticise our most honourable/respected/greatest/all other good epithets PM and SG ji, however the current discourse seems to be another Kashmir in making. I will not allege any ulterior motives because it may hurt some :(( but the fact remains going for a deal that affects your reactors/national policies in perpetuity without even consulting us (BJP) the main opposition itself smacks of something fishy. Three quick points here are worth mentioning:

a) India is giving away more and more concessions at each stage of negotiations. Any fair negotiation involves some give and take, although we are giving away a lot what are we getting in return? (As of today)

b) India has a very strong hand in terms of global warming and sustainable exploitation of oil/coal, why is not our government telling those pipsqueaks in no uncertain terms that deal in for their benefit too?

c)India has not been given ENR technology as per the latest draft rumoured to be doing rounds, our foreign policy will be subject to US congress, we will be cutting down on our domestic Nuclear program as seen by the drastic cuts in the budget for DEA and finally what if this tragedy is allowed to happen? What shall the future government do?

May I say BJP, Congress or yeh party woh party are now irrelevant this is about our future India's future. Can some gurus answer my humble queries.


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