India nuclear news and discussion

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 07 Sep 2008 05:58

"This is like a liberation. Globally, the deal frees India to operate and act more on her own," says Arundhati Ghose, the Indian diplomat who led the battle against the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).

India was in the nuclear doghouse after Pokhran II. Today it’s one of six nations that can buy nuclear merchandise and retain a nuclear arsenal.

As Bruce Riedel, Barack Obama’s advisor on South Asia, summarised, "India has moved from nuclear pariah to a member of the club in just 10 years."

One senior Indian diplomat says just the build-up to deal has led to a sea change in Arab and Asian views on India. "No other country in the world could have qualified for such exceptional treatment," says Ashley Wills of Washington lobby firm WilmerHale.

There are many reasons: India’s democracy, its non-proliferation record, its indigenous nuclear programme. But also, says Wills, "because it is widely felt India is on the way to being a great power."

Behind the gains in status is the more hard-nosed issue of technology — the ultimate index of global power. “India has now been admitted into a hexagon of 21st century power,”

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Sep 2008 05:59

sanjaykumar wrote: http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/358268.html

A wise one did post that the US probably threatened to yank some skeletons out of the Chinese closet.

Stillman's book was blocked for quite a while [under the equivalent of Official Secrets Act in US] and suddenly given green light minus some 21 pages. Not sure what those 21 pages were...

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 07 Sep 2008 06:02

achy:

Whatever gave u the idea that we actually want new nuclear plants in India?

This deal gives desi babus the ability to travel to MANY more meetings all over the duniya. Buy stocks in chai-biscoot and whisky-vodka industries.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Sep 2008 06:03

Singha wrote: Beijing, Sep 6 (PTI) China today began fresh round of talks with United States on the North Korean nuclear issue after receiving signals that Pyongyang may be in the process of reassembling the Yonbgyon nuclear reactor, which had earlier been dismantled under a six-nation agreement.

The meeting began in the backdrop of another meeting being held in Vienna where the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group is engaged in discussing the India-US nuclear deal.

China had earlier said that the India-US deal would influence other nuclear energy related debates concerning countries like North Korea and Iran.

It will take time for China to get used to the new reality. Till then they will be

It will hurt China more if they act belligerent and now.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Sep 2008 06:09

CRamS wrote: How does this deal enhance India's ability to thwart TSP, espcially given the constraints this deal places (directly or indirectly) on India's strategic development?

It will allow India to race, and race very very far and fast ahead now. This is the break out India was looking for. Imagine after IT, Nuclear is the next growth industry [and hence energy].... At that stage a few pin pricks on the way are just that - pin pricks. While TSP falls further and further into chaos, an ideal comparison of what democracy can achieve and what fundamentalism/totalitarian state cannot achieve.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 Sep 2008 06:10

Next year we might see many new "discoveries" of gas as well as oil in India . Beside few Nuke power plants, most of the new ones are gonna be gas fired.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 07 Sep 2008 06:24

it brings India's b***s firmly in hand of US. US has shown how it squeezes, when it has to. It remains to be seen what US has to extract for all its labour.

Also, the game is not over yet. Expect thousand clones of medha, arundhati, etc. which means most of India will have no nuclear power plant.

Overall the deal is B+ for the time being. I am not so sure of long term. But as keynes says, in long term, we are all dead.

Eventhough India is married into a strategic partnership with US, it can keep its national interests unaffected if its leaders keep thier vision, cool-headedness, and national-interests in heart while dealing with sensitive issues such as pakis-JK/prc-Tibet etc... If west's (US/EU/Russia) interests are in energy security, terrorism, and balance of power there is little that India cannot align with its own national interests....

If Metha/Arundhati etc. goes against any western implemented nuclear power house, they will be hounded by their own pay masters.... no doubt in that...

For each one of US's suggestion/request in foreign policy, India should ask for a equal-and-fair price. Few examples are:

1. counter China's influence = More investment in high-technology and Industrial setup (creates employment)
2. Iran = Cleanup pakistan mess... support on India's claim for POK
3. Afghanistan = Support India's influence in Nepal/Burma
4. Nuclear Commerce = Technology support for Kaveri etc..
5. Defence Deals = Make India as the spare parts suppliar for US defence equipment...

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 07 Sep 2008 06:25

disha wrote:No. We took heavy water from China. That was one chankian move!

India has also sold heavy water to China, as well as South Korea and the USA.

Incidently RAPS was placed under INFCIRC66 safeguards because of the pursuit and perpetuity provisions of IAEA safeguards on the supply of heavy water by the Soviet Union.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 07 Sep 2008 06:25

But will Proliferator-in-Chief China now attempt to boost Pak's nuclear program in response to India's deal with NSG?

China haplessly argued that Pak now also needs a similar NSG waiver. But whether it gets a waiver or not, China has no compunctions about illegally proliferating to Pak. Regardless of the Xinjiang/Uighur jihadi problem, China still nevertheless benefits from pitting Pak against India. Why would China suddenly allow their attack-dog Pak to fall by the wayside? To me, they are no more likely to abandon this strategy than to abandon Gwadar.

So as nuclear reactors start coming up in India, then will we also see reactors likewise coming up in Pak too, courtesy of Beijing?

achy · Post by **achy** » 07 Sep 2008 06:27

India has given up on nuclear tests

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 07 Sep 2008 06:27

Stillman's book was blocked for quite a while [under the equivalent of Official Secrets Act in US] and suddenly given green light minus some 21 pages. Not sure what those 21 pages were

Yeah I know the timing was not lost on me.

achy · Post by **achy** » 07 Sep 2008 06:32

RamaY wrote:
If Metha/Arundhati etc. goes against any western implemented nuclear power house, they will be hounded by their own pay masters.... no doubt in that...

Medha/Arundhati and clones will have new paymasters...Lizard will channelise all its energy now to create many new ones as well.

Manny · Post by **Manny** » 07 Sep 2008 06:34

Interesting NYT Take on this

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/world ... ref=slogin

In the end, if the deal is approved, India will be forced to decide what kind of nuclear program it aspires to develop. If it wants to be a major nuclear power in the world — significantly increasing the country’s arsenal and improving its sophistication — it has to conduct tests sooner rather than later, and face the potential consequences, said Stephen Cohen, a South Asia specialist at Brookings Institution.

Or it could actively negotiate with its rivals, Pakistan and China, to negotiate what he called a “nuclear restraint agreement.”

“This is the time for the Indian government to declare what kind of nuke capability they will have and negotiate with the other Asian powers to avoid a nuclear arms race,” Mr. Cohen said from Washington.

disha · Post by **disha** » 07 Sep 2008 06:34

achy wrote:India has given up on nuclear tests

News to me ...

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 07 Sep 2008 06:44

Not sure what those 21 pages were

The US Administration's role in transferring nuclear-bomb-making technology to China and Al Qaeda, presumably.

Someone should tell Uneven Cohen to put a chinese-produced sock in his musharraf.

achy · Post by **achy** » 07 Sep 2008 06:45

disha wrote:
achy wrote:India has given up on nuclear tests
News to me ...

Good to know that...

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 07 Sep 2008 07:05

achy wrote:
RamaY wrote:
Medha/Arundhati and clones will have new paymasters...Lizard will channelise all its energy now to create many new ones as well.

Perhaps... but these new paymasters cannot give them booker/pulitzer prizes and other awards... and some of the media houses will be pitted against them... that will be the tipping point...

SureshP · Post by **SureshP** » 07 Sep 2008 07:08

Sanjay M wrote:But will Proliferator-in-Chief China now attempt to boost Pak's nuclear program in response to India's deal with NSG?

China haplessly argued that Pak now also needs a similar NSG waiver. But whether it gets a waiver or not, China has no compunctions about illegally proliferating to Pak. Regardless of the Xinjiang/Uighur jihadi problem, China still nevertheless benefits from pitting Pak against India. Why would China suddenly allow their attack-dog Pak to fall by the wayside? To me, they are no more likely to abandon this strategy than to abandon Gwadar.

So as nuclear reactors start coming up in India, then will we also see reactors likewise coming up in Pak too, courtesy of Beijing?

Your understanding of the nuclear trade post NPT and NSG is poor.

1) China CANNOT sell or give nuclear reactors to Pakistan because Pakistan is not a signatory to the NPT.
The Chasma reactors that China is building in Pakistan are the last they will build. They are ALLOWED by the NSG/NPT to do so because China had signed the contract BEFORE signing up to the NPT.

2) There isnt a snow flakes chance in hell of Pakistan getting a waiver from the NSG. Remember there has to be a consensus of ALL NSG members to get such a waiver as surely even you must have realised after the shenanigans of the last few days.

3) If China flouts the NPT for the sake of Pakistan ( Chinese would rather slit thier own throats first ) all those reactors China is aquiring from the west would be sanctioned as would any fuel for them. There would follow economic sanctions and the ejection of China from the NPT and the NSG.

It would also mean the death of the NPT and the NSG as we know it. In which case China will have done India the greatest service it could perform.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2008 07:12

The final text looks fairly harmless, congrats to the negotiating team.

2(g) is a pain yes, but unfortunately we were a bit late to the game and testing has gone out of fashion anyway. We have a much steeper mountain to climb everytime we test, deal or no deal, because it will be like bursting crackers long after Diwali season is gone.

Yes, if we test all hell will break loose, but then all hell will break loose anyway, only now with billions of sunk investments in reactors and stuff. Therein lies the chankyan option - let others keep 40-50% stake in those reactors so they will lobby their own govt. to let India get away.

Another thing is if we test NSg has to meet again and all we have to do is convince SA or some such country to play spoiler.

How to get into NSG? Float rumour that we want to supply reactor to Iran? The only worrying part of the text was 2(f). We are bound by NSG terms without a seat at the table.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 07 Sep 2008 07:16

Chances are that China's acts at the NSG had little to do with India but more to send a message to Washington that China cannot be taken for granted and the US will have to work with China to gain its concurrence at the high table.

SureshP · Post by **SureshP** » 07 Sep 2008 07:19

India will have to be patient. NSG seat will come eventually. There is I suppose the "Bhutan sanction" . They could sign the NPT and join the NSG.

I say that in jest. Or maybe Mauritius or Guyana Solomon Islands ?

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 07 Sep 2008 07:25

Chances are that China's acts at the NSG had little to do with India but more to send a message to Washington that China cannot be taken for granted and the US will have to work with China to gain its concurrence at the high table.

Not at all, a mature power only chooses the fights it can win. This is a defeat for Chinese diplomacy. They were steamrolled, ah well like Norway-they are in good company.

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 07 Sep 2008 07:27

I wonder about that. It is very much in the NSG's interest now to get India in, isn't it? Otherwise India can wreak havoc on their comfortable niches, and India doesn't have to inform them of anything. Seems like this is just a formality. India will develop products for sale, and can sell as long as it is to NPT signatories who are not under gang sanctions.

Of course, bring India in and they'll never decide anything again.

Send Ambassadors Arundhati Ghose and Sushma Swaraj, with Arundhati

Roy for comic entertainment and as Permanent Representative to Vienna (i.e., never to return to India).

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2008 07:28

http://www.hindu.com/2008/09/07/stories ... 400100.htm

SV says in his blog that US has an interest in spinning anti-china views as to what happened at NSG. I guess we can say there is an attempt here to create anti-US views, by quoting unnamed officials (See para 3). What happens at capital hill is NOT of inconsequence because any time of his choosing, Uncle can play spoiler. By creating spin that Indian officials are ungrateful to US efforts, who gains?

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 Sep 2008 07:29

SureshP:

I don't know if you recall, but Uneven, a while ago was recommending civilian nuke cooperation between US & TSP. Being the erudite scholar that he is, abhorrent from India's PoV no doubt, he sure is aware of the legal hurdles you cite. THUS, there still might be a way out for Unkil/Chincom to restore TSP's H&D by offering them something? Recall, all TSP would need some semblence of equal equal with India to keep their piglets motivated.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2008 07:30

narayanan wrote:Of course, bring India in and they'll never decide anything again. Send Ambassadors Arundhati Ghose and Sushma Swaraj, with Arundhati Roy for comic entertainment and as Permanent Representative to Vienna (i.e., never to return to India).

Well there is one thing they WILL decide - about giving equal-equal to TSP

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2008 07:36

http://www.hindu.com/2008/09/07/stories ... 400100.htm

Instructions have been received to make it sound China was so nice...not at all playing spoil sport, it only had to check with HQ, and it was the first to agree, that too directly to India. Sounds unbelievable doesn't it?

Pray tell us why it chose to be part of last Gang of Four if its intentions had been clean all along!

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 07 Sep 2008 07:43

What is truly amazing is the blatant Chinese commie propaganda coming out the Chindu. Someone commented here about modern Americans being stupid people who sit in front of the boob tube and believe everything they are told.

Well.. the residents of TamilNadu must all qualify for the Darwin Award for tolerating the Chindu.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 Sep 2008 07:45

sanjaykumar wrote:Washington simultaneously stepped up gears and US President George W. Bush contacted his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao asking him not to block the waiver. Sources said “everyone in the US government below the President” leaned on someone in the Chinese government in a closely coordinated effort. In short, the US “pulled out all stops,” including reminding the Chinese of the evidence Washington had of its past proliferation activities, particularly in Pakistan.

http://www.indianexpress.com/sunday/story/358268.html

A wise one did post that the US probably threatened to yank some skeletons out of the Chinese closet.

After this kind of heavy-lifting for India, even a cynic like me has developed some respect and trust for Unkil. Of course, to use a control systems analogy, he sure expects the output (India's behavior) to follow that of a reference model defined by him

.

Suppiah · Post by **Suppiah** » 07 Sep 2008 07:46

The residents of TN all dont read Chindu. It is mostly the upper classes, who still remember the Chindu of old time when it was not a marxist propaganda mouthpiece. To keep them engaged, chindu cleverly covers carnatic music, religious themes etc.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 07 Sep 2008 07:50

Can India still continue developing its Thorium Breeders, as part of the 3-Stage program?

Does this deal in any way derail that program?

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 07 Sep 2008 07:54

CRamS wrote:After this kind of heavy-lifting for India, even a cynic like me has developed some respect and trust for Unkil.

Yes, Bush is the new Nixon -- or hadn't you heard?

He's given us his version of the infamous visit to China. And we didn't even have to play any table tennis -- well, not over the table, anyway.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 07 Sep 2008 07:59

Yeah, watching the US squeeze the bejeezus out of the holdouts was an amazing thing to see. What is also amazing is how long it actually took. There were reports of the US being shocked by the delays etc. after the first round.

The US is the preeminent power of the world. It is not about get its reputation sullied this way, not in the least in a forum it started. It had to.

Viz TSP, may be in hindsight we might think the US gave a 20-30 year headstart to China over India. Its now given India a chance to catchup, and a headstart too. Model errors between its conception of China and the Chinese plant are the reason it is here, and similar perception of errors between the model it has laid out for us and the Indian actions downstream can conceivably let it do a 123 with Pakistan. Say a 20 year headstart. Does this mean that "all TSP has to do" is to be a "good boy" for that long and all India has to do is "assert her sovereignty" one too many times? But, we'll make sure that doesn't happen by then somehow and won't be the ones saying, gotta go back home to consult.

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 07 Sep 2008 07:59

narayanan wrote:
But India, being India can be counted on to do this?

No, INDIA won't do that.

And CRAMS, u being u, won't do much beyond what u do here (no comment due to Voluntary Moratorium etc. required for Waiver of Sanctions by Adminullahs)

Voluntary moratorium is not your prerogative alone you know

.

But I being I, could, may, and will probably do, whether anyone else helps or just sits around

Cheers.

I sincerely hope that you get to write in places like NYT, WP, Economist etc to expose the dragon. And USA being USA, unless something like that is in US (and west's) interests, I doubt they would entertain any writing that would tamper with their signal (US & western interests) to noise (truth) ratio. It all depends upon how much damage the dragon did to Unkil at the NSG.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 07 Sep 2008 08:03

Sanjay M wrote:Can India still continue developing its Thorium Breeders, as part of the 3-Stage program?

Does this deal in any way derail that program?

AFAIK,

India has two spaces; a protected space subject to safeguards and a private space not subject to safeguards. It is tight and closed. That is, no fuel, derivatives of fuel, recycled, re-whatever, equipment, technology, or methods that are in the protected space can go into the private space. Buy fuel/reactors, pay money to US, electricity for everyone, and spare parts business for Indians, and spare change for the pols.

India may expose anything it is doing in its private space by bringing it into the protected or safeguarded space. in doing so, expose its technology to the outside and kill our competitive advantage. Further, once something enters protected space, it is not leaving it. Can't yoyo around safeguard and private.

Where the 123 thus resides is anyone's guess. In the private space, it has little chance of growing beyond what it would've without this deal. If moved into the protected space, it has little chance of being protected. And our work is quite good. The one thing we can do easily in the private space is make more bomb material, but no testing.

S

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 07 Sep 2008 08:11

Of course the US expects something from India in return.

The next few weeks will tell, once the US congress passes the agreement. There will not be overt signs of policy shifts, but expect US military observers in Indian naval facilities. Joint exercises in the Himalayas, US$ 5 billion contracts for reactors.
Expect further collaboration over Afganistan and Pakistan.I do not know if India has the political consensus to deliver-given the record of it's communists and 'other special interest groups'. Possibly cooperation in ABM and nuclear sub launch systems-which BRF will report 15 yrs from now.

I do not expect MRCA to be given to the US.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Sep 2008 08:14

Its amazing how much India allows others to take credit. Truly walk softly and carry a big stick and let others take the credit. Very Gandhian.

Narayanan, Let Cohen savor his last few days of glory. That idiot doesnt know his face from his behind. The charaltan was totally worng on nature of TSP falling for Begum Zia's samosas. If he is scholar I am a Torah scholar.

However we need to do our bit to expose the PRC proliferation and influence peddling the world over. we need to diferenitate between Chinese people and PRC.

I am with you on that.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 07 Sep 2008 08:24

ramana wrote:Its amazing how much India allows others to take credit. Truly walk softly and carry a big stick and let others take the credit. Very Gandhian.

Is this comment specific to the deal or a general statement about our foreign policy? If the former, can you say something more specific?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Sep 2008 08:27

Cant say yet. I learnt more from this than quite a few years of observation.
samuel just think it over and you too will say the same.

Baljeet · Post by **Baljeet** » 07 Sep 2008 08:28

Sanjay M wrote:But will Proliferator-in-Chief China now attempt to boost Pak's nuclear program in response to India's deal with NSG?

China haplessly argued that Pak now also needs a similar NSG waiver. But whether it gets a waiver or not, China has no compunctions about illegally proliferating to Pak. Regardless of the Xinjiang/Uighur jihadi problem, China still nevertheless benefits from pitting Pak against India. Why would China suddenly allow their attack-dog Pak to fall by the wayside? To me, they are no more likely to abandon this strategy than to abandon Gwadar.

So as nuclear reactors start coming up in India, then will we also see reactors likewise coming up in Pak too, courtesy of Beijing?

Sanjay
There is no way lizard tech is as sophisticated as Unkils. Let them give more reactors to pakis, more opprotunity for our AF, Navy, Brahmos, Agni to strike. Less headache for Army to dedicate valuable fighting men to protect these white elephants i,e in case pakis fall apart from it seams. Another benefit I see is for NRI's who work for security sensitive positions in GOTUS, their clearances may have some favorable impact. Other techs will become easier, the new notification that will go in SD register will remove almost all prohibitions on tech export. Few things we will never get from unkil is their Sub technology, radar technology, C4I tech. In the event like this one cannot wonder where the hell is 'JCAGE'. He did say few months ago, MRCA will definitely go to US--I for one will be very surprised if it didn't. IIRC, Ms Basmati did ask LM and Boeing to be open to delivering the latest and greatest of their 4.5 Gen plane to India. LM and Boeing have gone on record to say, they have developed IN specific planes with all the Gizmos.