India nuclear news and discussion

[Kanson]

Good we are able to pull it out. Yes it is a historic moment but we are standing in the middle of the bridge and yet to travel half more to reach safe and reap benefits.

What we achieved is just a waiver on paper though it is still a remarkable one. Till this translates into fruitification of our needs and accrue benefits, we need to play safe and maintain "nice boy" behaviour.

Congratulations to our team for standing steadfast and Americans too had lived up to their side of the bargain and for their "reputation".

[Arun_S]

Ramana, I wholly agree with you but to play devil's-advocate:

1) Has our deterrent become a casualty - as per Iyengar ?
2) Has our testing ability really vanished ?

My asssessment is as follows:

1) India has demonstrated viable and reliable fission and boosted-fission capability.
2) India probably has reliable boosted-fission capability fission capability scalable to 150-200KT.
3) That capability may be reliable but has not been demonstrated via a full yield test.
4) India has significant thermonuclear weapons potential but the S-1 test did not demonstrate that capability as being reliable.
5) India may well have a viable thermonuclear weapon but again it has not been demonstrated.

I do not think I am exaggerating or being overly optimistic.

We also have to contend with the fact that India has not tested for the last 10 years and has shown no inclination to be in a rush to resume testing.

What do we make of that ?

Are we to assume BARC has been doing nothing for 10 years ? Are we to assume no sub-critical and/ or hydronuclear testing took place (despite the fact we have been talking about it since the 1980s) ?


Much depends on how we manipulate the deal. India has much to gain - as does the US. It's all in the manipulation.

I am delighted and jubilant that NPA have got a resounding "thappad" and kick between the legs today, in just answer to their venom against India.

For the bold above.

Surely no, but the question is what? Since India is a explicit and overt Nuclear Weapon State there are set of activities and deliverables India (read BARC) needs to make (in a mode very different from before 1998) openly to exercise and demonstrate nuclear activities commensurate with Nuclear Weapon State and more so credible Indian nuclear deterrence. So what has BARC done there in last 10 years? I and most Indian citizens would will be enlightened to know.

[Arun_S]

Good we are able to pull it out. Yes it is a historic moment but we are standing in the middle of the bridge and yet to travel half more to reach safe and reap benefits.

What we achieved is just a waiver on paper though it is still a remarkable one. Till this translates into fruitification of our needs and accrue benefits, we need to play safe and maintain "nice boy" behaviour.

Congratulations to our team for standing steadfast and Americans too had lived up to their side of the bargain and for their "reputation".

I second that.

[G Subramaniam]

Ramana, I wholly agree with you but to play devil's-advocate:

1) Has our deterrent become a casualty - as per Iyengar ?
2) Has our testing ability really vanished ?

My asssessment is as follows:

1) India has demonstrated viable and reliable fission and boosted-fission capability.
2) India probably has reliable boosted-fission capability fission capability scalable to 150-200KT.
3) That capability may be reliable but has not been demonstrated via a full yield test.
4) India has significant thermonuclear weapons potential but the S-1 test did not demonstrate that capability as being reliable.
5) India may well have a viable thermonuclear weapon but again it has not been demonstrated.

I do not think I am exaggerating or being overly optimistic.

We also have to contend with the fact that India has not tested for the last 10 years and has shown no inclination to be in a rush to resume testing.

What do we make of that ?

Are we to assume BARC has been doing nothing for 10 years ? Are we to assume no sub-critical and/ or hydronuclear testing took place (despite the fact we have been talking about it since the 1980s) ?


Much depends on how we manipulate the deal. India has much to gain - as does the US. It's all in the manipulation.

I am delighted and jubilant that NPA have got a resounding "thappad" and kick between the legs today, in just answer to their venom against India.

For the bold above.

Surely no, but the question is what? Since India is a explicit and overt Nuclear Weapon State there are set of activities and deliverables India (read BARC) needs to make (in a mode very different from before 1998) openly to exercise and demonstrate nuclear activities commensurate with Nuclear Weapon State and more so credible Indian nuclear deterrence. So what has BARC done there in last 10 years? I and most Indian citizens would will be enlightened to know.

There is consensus that the boosted fission 200KT design works
I am lost as to why there is need for the 1MT pure fusion, since the P-5 is now mostly switching to 200KT designs

[sivab]

I am wondering if the physics today article made China to commit hara kiri in NSG. Clearly it was contrary to what Chinese leadership told India. Did the chinese editorial happen after knowledge of physics today article to be published.

[pradeepe]

Time to start attacking, IMO. The world has recognized that right is on our side, no need to be shy any more. Expose the China-Pakistan perfidy as NOW revealed by Reed, and ask why Kimball and Sokolski and all their gang didn't tell the US people about this long ago. Start exposing the Chinese PLA penetration of US Think Tanks like ACUS - just take a look at their staff/ Visiting Researcher rosters and u'll c what I mean. Look at Chinese penetration of COTUS. Publish lists of the NPAs and their lack of honesty, the real victims being the US taxpayer and the Indian civilian and soldier who have fought off the Chicom terrorist threat.

Expose the Chinese hand in the FOIL, the "Coalition Against Genocide", the Phillippines "islamist" terrorism, Iran's missiles, the China-NoKo connection, and generally the China-Islam conspiracy against democracy and freedom.

Other than the ACA and the wonkers site, what are the usual watering holes of these guys?

[pradeepe]

Great day for Trishanku (India) - hope the view of the sapta rishis is nice!

View of the rishis? I hear of far greater shapes worthy of staring there

[Arun_S]

as per the link Gerard posted on french nuclear arsenal, they are scheduled to
complete a "megajoule laser facility" in 2011 that is supposed to simulate nukular
burst in a subcritical fashion. unkil has one in lawrence livermore.

does anyone know how difficult this tech is to master? did the french and brits
develop it on their own or received ToT?

More is better, but for fusion weapons mega-joule is not necessary.

Yes the good news is India has had for many years the necessary in-house technology to make high energy Laser Facility suitable for weapons design and stewardship. The last CAT Indore facility (now wound up) was at the threshold of energy density necessary for fusion work (much useful but not completely). Just an order higher or two will be adequate for basic work, but where we are going to invest billions of $$ for separation of civil and mil facilities I would rather have them build a modern facility with many tens of kilo joules. Any choice between a Volkswagen and Mercedes (Mega Joule) is adequate.

[Arun_S]

There is consensus that the boosted fission 200KT design works
I am lost as to why there is need for the 1MT pure fusion, since the P-5 is now mostly switching to 200KT designs

Boss time to rejoice for a day and two, will do serious discussion business later.
Later I would be delighted if you could pls tell the basis of the 2 statements above. I have never heard of any serious demand for 1MT pure fusion (holly molly if pure fusion yield is 1MT, the full 3 stage yield will be ~ 4-6 MT) , except as part of hyperbole of those who wanted to ridicule the position of people arguing "for test", by increasing the test yield threshold to rediculaesous level of 1MT, 10 MT and 100MT. I.e. The little kid Narayanan's lines of argument.

But as I said lets get back to serious business after we have enjoyed this victory to our heart's content for few days at least.

[Raja Ram]

Gentle Readers,

It is a historic day for India, a turning point and mile stone in the march to the tryst with destiny. There are many layers to this watershed event. One must wait patiently for it to unravel. I have, on multiple occassions, talked about some of the key ones, here in this forum. Sometimes to the derision of others. Sometimes appreciated. What one must realise that there were some positives and some negaitives that will come out of this deal.

The most important, gentle readers, is that a prime geo strategic shift has been achieved by India. India is well and truly on its way to become a great power. It is important thought to remain the journey left still is long, hard and comes with risks and more momentous decisions that need to be taken. We can all however, take heart from the fact that with this turning, the Indian polity will have learnt great lessons on how to build consenus and take decisions when such opportunities come.

If one looks at it from a purely Indian perspective, it is not the ideal deal. But it is not about getting the ideal deal, it is more about siezing the opportunity to dismantle a discriminatory world order that was designed to keep India out. Has the GOI played it correctly? The answer is still NO. There has been several things that UPA administration led by Manmohan Singh has done that were wrong, but the objective of the GOI was never wrong. They could have done much better. Only small mindedness and lack of an ability to put national interests above partisan politicking were responsible for it. Equally, the principal opposition could have played a better part. The BJP was not against the objective of the deal, it should have come forward the extra mile to forge a consensus and strengthened the GOI hand. It did not. This is one the most important lessons that we have learnt as a nation. Or have we really learnt it? Only time will tell.

Coming specifically to the NSG waiver, it cannot be termed as either clean or unconditional. 2g or paragaph 16 is a clear violation of the J18 terms and the redlines. So was the Hyde Act. The GOI could have been better off resisting these poison pills that has come with this deal, if they had got better strength of consensus when they negotiated. The UPA administration chose not to build a genuine consensus and weakened India's barganing position. A self imposed restraint.

Does this mean, a capitulation? Most certainly not. Much to the potential irritation of my friends here who are opposed to the deal, this is not a capitulation. India has gained. It is not a surrender of the right to test. For if we are able to play our cards right from this point on in the bilateral deals with partners, and have a long term energy security plan, this will not inhibit in any way our ability to test. Yes, the cost to us from testing can and will be decided by the other decisions and actions that we take.

We have sounded a death knell to NPT, or at least the discrimanatory part of it, it is not dead yet. We have sounded a death knell to the CTBT, yet we can forsee some added pressure coming our way on this in years to come, as we get more and more imported fuel and reactors. This gang of NSG will try and put some pressure on us. The answer to that is in the ability of GOI to play its realpolitik games right to split the NSG. We will also face pressure in the future on the FMCT part. So the battles will continue. But we will be facing them hopefully with more assuredness and better consensus.

What India can do will still be considerably dependent on what India does and not what others cand do to India. We have the ability to complete the three stage programme, we need the political will to see it through. We have the ability to build more precise weapons as needed by a DND. Again we need the political will to be committed to it. Is it there? The answer to that is unclear. For if we do not follow up this deal with an accelerated and dedicated implementation of a strategic and an indegenous Nuclear programme, all the gains of the deal will come to naught and evey negative possibile implication of the deal will manifest itself.

How does one ensure that we gain from this deal? This depends on the vision for India. I have alluded to the vision for India that MMS has is that of the Japan model. It is not commensurate with the vision of India that many here have. The Manmohan or rather the congress vision for India appears to be that of a global player when it comes to economic strength and clout. No other dimension of great power appeals to them. It stems from a warped thinking that is alien to India. It is here that the second independence has to occur amongst Indians. It is a larger point and not appropriate for me to elaborate here. Let it be suffice to say that this kind of distorted thinking made us miss some of the key opportunities that came our way in the fifties. Example when we let go of the opportunity of a permanent membership of the Security Council and argued the case for China.

One of the many positives, is the clear and unambigous unmasking of China and its intentions vis-a-vis us. It will become increasingly difficult for GOI to be always circumspect and careful of chinese sensitivities as they have been. Please observe that the NDA was no better when it came to being circumspect with regard to China, notwithstanding George kaka's occassional grandstanding. It will also force the GOI to plan and take actions instead of wolly headed detente symbolism with regard to China. That can continue but on the ground, it should be backed by practical strengthining of our ability to hurt china in every sphere globally. That is the only thing that will keep them honest. China understand power only if the other party knows how to use and is prepared to do so. India must learn how to use and be prepared to do so.

I had taken a voluntary moratorium on posting here on this forum due to the excessive and unwarranted thought policing. I never wanted to post here again because of that. However, the significance of this event, made me realise that I should not be egotistical. I wanted to share my sentiments on this watershed event and a major breakthrough our country has achieved with people who care genuinely for this country. No better bunch than my fellow gentle BR forumites. There are some here who have been in touch with me off the forum, I will always be available for sharing some of my views with them offline.

Maybe when things change and this phase of thought policing and over moderation is over on the forum, I will resume my occassional rambling commentary and matters silly and strategic.

Till then, just another ramble, take it for what it is worth.

[hnair]

There is consensus that the boosted fission 200KT design works
I am lost as to why there is need for the 1MT pure fusion, since the P-5 is now mostly switching to 200KT designs

GS-saar, whatever we have, particularly the scaleable 200kt thingy, it works splendidly. I dont think even the NPAs have any doubts about that. But it might be a wee bit heavy for the fat ladies in the babyboomer. The ladies can still lob the chunky Kornetto icecreams far enough and barbeque the lizard's ass, no problem. But beyond that, the ladies will start gasping for range. Hence they dont threaten "some". Those "some" realized what is coming down the road, if they keep listening to NPAs and the six-peeshooters of NSG. They have traded with us this waiver agreement, for ensuring their own feeling of security. Or atleast the sense of security to their public that an allegedly untested family of light weapons can give. It is impressive, what fear of the unknown can do: these "some" have pulled some really heavy diplomatic muscle to get this done.

So 1MT pure fusion is not the issue, lighter Kornetto icecreams with 200-400Kt eclairs inside, now that is something the fat ladies love to lob way over the horizon, almost until the seas of Chile. That *might* still need 'validation'. To delay that 'validation' by India, that was the purpose of this whole excersize of Bush (and Clinton's Talbott ) hugging us. Global Warming type paranoia campaigns helped this process from the liberal side of the political spectrum under this current administration.

And it is not bad - these "some" know they have to supply fuel reliably or else they will have an agitated public to soothe in the future Yessir, we, the unwashed, learned about these easily agitated public from such "grolious readels" like the Kims, the Chengs, the xeroxes etc.

I am happy if we can break the powercut candle and read in the dark. even if it is just a dream.

[John Snow]

N guru is going out of touch

He said

"Reconstruct Pakistan" almost sounds like resurrect Paakistan.

bad very bad.

The correct and current slogan is

"Right Size Pakistan" or "Down Size Pakistan"

[Pulikeshi]

Nuclear Suppliers Group Backs
U.S.-India Atomic-Trade Deal
By DAVID CRAWFORD, JACKIE RANGE and JAY SOLOMON
September 6, 2008 10:59 p.m.

The international body overseeing trade in nuclear materials approved a controversial, U.S.-sponsored nuclear trade agreement with India.

The decision by the Nuclear Suppliers Group permits the sale of civilian nuclear technology and fuel to India, despite the Asian nation's long-standing refusal to sign the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

The NSG is a club of 45 nations that export nuclear technology and services. The club is dedicated to ensuring that the fruits of civilian nuclear technology are preserved for nations that have signed and adhere to the nonproliferation treaty.

The decision, which amounts to a one-off waiver, didn't come easy. The NSG was originally founded as a reaction to India's test of a nuclear weapon in 1974. Several nations, including Austria, Ireland and New Zealand, wanted assurances that India wouldn't return to nuclear-weapons testing, according to a diplomat familiar with talks taking place in Vienna.

Washington had lobbied hard for the deal, arguing that it would solidify a strategic partnership with the world's largest democracy, help the subcontinent meet exploding energy demand and open a nuclear market worth billions of dollars.

Indian officials eagerly endorsed the decision. In a statement, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called the NSG decision "forward-looking and momentous." He added: "It marks the end of India's decades-long isolation from the nuclear mainstream and of the technology denial regime."

Rice Hails NSG Move

U.S Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice hailed passage at the NSG. "It's a very big step for the [global] non-proliferation framework," she told reporters en route to Algeria from Tunis, Tunisia. This "expands the reach of the non-proliferation regime."

Still, America's top diplomat acknowledged that she would "have to see" if both India's parliament and the U.S. Congress will ratify the deal during President George W. Bush's last months in office.

A number of Indian political parties have pledged to block the passage of the deal, as it's seen as impinging on New Delhi's independence in pursuing its national security policies. This opposition has only been fed by the release this week of a secret State Department document that said the U.S would cut off nuclear supplies to New Delhi if the Indian government conducted further nuclear weapons tests.

U.S. lawmakers have also indicated that Congress might not have enough time to fully vet and pass the India nuclear agreement before the current legislative session ends this month. This holds out the possibility that the nuclear accord could be passed on to a new U.S. administration and Congress next year.

Separately, Ms. Rice acknowledged that a similar nuclear cooperation pact Washington was pursing with Russia wouldn't pass during President Bush's second term. The Secretary of State said the White House would formally announce its pulling of support for the deal, given Moscow's military occupation of Georgia. "The time isn't right for the Russia deal," Rice said.

Wrangling Over Resolution Text

The NSG talks Friday began constructively with delegations split between those that would accept a revised draft of a resolution text, and those that wanted tough language that would permit conditional nuclear exports to India, according to a diplomat familiar with the discussion. Additional changes Friday morning and afternoon brought more delegations on board, but not all, the diplomat said.

In the late afternoon the delegates reconvened in an unusual evening session for what they hoped would be one last push to agree on a new revised resolution text, according to a diplomat with knowledge of the discussion.

About 8:00 pm the delegations were still far apart and split into smaller working groups, in the hope of later meeting again in full session for a final decision. During the evening, the U.S. intensified its diplomatic effort in a series of phone calls, one diplomat said.

At 2:00 am and still without agreement, the meeting adjourned until 11:00 am when delegates returned to approve a resolution. {Wonder what changed between 2 AM and 11 AM - would be an interesting book to read!}

India, although it isn't a member of the NSG, monitored the talks closely. A high-ranking delegation was just minutes from the meeting hall, according to a diplomat with knowledge of the discussion.

Indian officials lobbied intensively for approval of the pact. Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said India wouldn't spark a new arms race and pledged to uphold a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing. "India has a long-standing and steadfast commitment to universal, nondiscriminatory and total elimination of nuclear weapons," Mr. Mukherjee said in a statement on the ministry's Web site.

Ultimately it was this assurance that clinched the approval, according to a statement by the Austrian foreign ministry at the conclusion of the meeting.

Intrigue Over Secret U.S. Letter

Adding intrigue to the Vienna talks was a secret Bush administration letter released this week by Rep. Howard Berman (D., Calif.), which said Washington has the right to immediately halt nuclear trade with India if it were to conduct an atomic test blast.

In an Aug. 5 letter to Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, Mr. Berman said the U.S. Congress needs time to consider the proposed pact before the U.S. Congress begins its election recess in late September.

The deal, if it passes its remaining hurdles, would see the U.S. supply India with nuclear fuel and technology for civilian purposes. Last month, the board of governors of the United Nations' atomic watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, unanimously approved an inspections agreement with India that was a key precondition to completing the deal.

India's Congress Party, which leads India's coalition government, has made better access to nuclear power through this deal a key focus. Although India's economy is slowing, it is still growing fast, and the nation needs to increase power generation.

Some parts of rural India experience 15 hours or more a day of power cuts, and even major towns and cities endure blackouts of several hours a day. The U.S., for its part, sees the nuclear pact as a way to create stronger ties with the giant South Asian nation and provide a counterweight to China's influence in the region.

Write to David Crawford at [email protected], Jackie Range at [email protected] and Jay Solomon at [email protected]

[Pulikeshi]

Snow-garu,

The politically correct slogan based on N's original:

Given Pakistan a chance, rationalize it!


(emoticons in the order of what one feels when one goes about rationalizing!)

[Avinash R]

Disappointed by China's role at NSG'

9/6/2008 9:22:00 PM

As India made a heist at Vienna today (September 6) by obtaining a crucial waiver that will enable it to carry out nuclear commerce, ending 34 years of isolation enforced in the wake of the 1974 Pokharan nuclear tests, National Security Advisor MK Narayanan expressed 'surprise and disappointment' at China's role in the NSG negotiations at Vienna.

Speaking exclusively to TIMES NOW's political editor Navika Kumar -- the man who played crucial role in behind-the-scene hectic parlays for the Indo-US nuclear deal in the last three years - NSA MK Narayanan credited Prime Minister's 'optimism' for the success at Vienna.

Excerpts of the interview:

Navika: How tensed were the last few moments?

MK Narayanan: Pretty tensed. I am normally calm, at least that's what I like to think, but the last 48 hrs have been very tensed, as we were near and yet so far; but I suppose at the end it was worth it.

Navika: What were the PM's first words to you after the NSG nod?

MK Narayanan: Yes I spoke to the PM...I broke the news to him. He was overjoyed because it was a few of us who kept the faith, despite all the happenings that we went through during the period. Both of us, the PM and me felt that we would come through, because if I my quote the PM 'What we were doing was something for India'; and I think India is a country that deserves what it is now. So he was very optimistic and the optimism spread to all of us.

Navika: What about China's role in this entire negotiation?

MK Narayanan: I must say that we are very disappointed, because at a very high level Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chinese Prime Minster Wen Jiabao had told our PM and their Foreign Minister told our Foreign Minister that China would not be a problem.

In the last 48 or 72 hours the Chinese did not show any tendency of opposing the deal. So when in the last 48 hours the Chinese sided with the sceptics, we were surprised and disappointed.

On our part, we did our best. The Americans and the others also did there best. I am not very clear as to what exactly the Chinese did; I believe they followed what is available in the NSG called 'the silence procedure'. They did not oppose, but they need not necessarily have supported.

[John Snow]

Raja Ram garu delighted that you are back inspite of being slighted! But dont lose you sight and keep posting GK "Reddyisque" ( If I may) analysis.

I think what you have eloquently is that fom now on we should shed our (Indian) attitude
of

"India too can do it"

To

"India can do"

Please do continue to share your perspective and knowledge for those who like
"your ramble for what ever worth"

Remember,
"Some can suppress express wish, but not expression" spinster

[Sanjay M]

I hope we can survive without testing for awhile.

At what point will China's ongoing upgrades to its strategic arsenal put enough pressure upon us to reconsider our testing "moratorium"?

What Chinese developments will serve as warning signs that we have to get moving?

[Arun_S]

There is nothing about building a strategic fuel reserve. Does it mean that it has been left to the bilateral agreement with individual suppliers on how much can be supplied? It would be safe to assume that in the event of India conducting a test the supplier would demand the stock back. Is it safe to say that at that point India would kick the IAEA inspection team out and the facility would be off limits for inspection?

No it means, its a "buyers market" that determines the terms of bilateral 123 like agreement with various NSG suppliers. So sweeten up to Indian taste to have any chance to get bijness (sic) from India. The Lowest common denominator set the threshold for other. Unlike a bonded NSG that set Highest common denominator.

IOW US starts with a big handicap with he beautiful Hyde and 123 midwifed by Sen Obama and NPA's.

I am absolutely sure that India will never again agree to any bilateral agreement with any other NSG country with such sweet and divine terms as:

• "Right to return"
  "Reserve just enough for proper running of reactor"
  "No right to reprocess"

NPA killed the golden goose for American bijness.

[Arun_S]

There is consensus that the boosted fission 200KT design works
I am lost as to why there is need for the 1MT pure fusion, since the P-5 is now mostly switching to 200KT designs

GS-saar, whatever we have, particularly the scaleable 200kt thingy, it works splendidly. I dont think even the NPAs have any doubts about that. But it might be a wee bit heavy for the fat ladies in the babyboomer. The ladies can still lob the chunky Kornetto icecreams far enough and barbeque the lizard's ass, no problem. But beyond that, the ladies will start gasping for range. Hence they dont threaten "some". Those "some" realized what is coming down the road, if they keep listening to NPAs and the six-peeshooters of NSG. They have traded with us this waiver agreement, for ensuring their own feeling of security. Or atleast the sense of security to their public that an allegedly untested family of light weapons can give. It is impressive, what fear of the unknown can do: these "some" have pulled some really heavy diplomatic muscle to get this done.

So 1MT pure fusion is not the issue, lighter Kornetto icecreams with 200-400Kt eclairs inside, now that is something the fat ladies love to lob way over the horizon, almost until the seas of Chile. That *might* still need 'validation'. To delay that 'validation' by India, that was the purpose of this whole excersize of Bush (and Clinton's Talbott ) hugging us. Global Warming type paranoia campaigns helped this process from the liberal side of the political spectrum under this current administration.

And it is not bad - these "some" know they have to supply fuel reliably or else they will have an agitated public to soothe in the future Yessir, we, the unwashed, learned about these easily agitated public from such "grolious readels" like the Kims, the Chengs, the xeroxes etc.

I am happy if we can break the powercut candle and read in the dark. even if it is just a dream.

Precisely.
Thanks for conveying it so clearly.

[Arun_S]

Raja Ram garu delighted that you are back inspite of being slighted! But dont lose you sight and keep posting GK "Reddyisque" ( If I may) analysis.

I think what you have eloquently is that fom now on we should shed our (Indian) attitude
of

"India too can do it"

To

"India can do"

Please do continue to share your perspective and knowledge for those who like
"your ramble for what ever worth"

Remember,
"Some can suppress express wish, but not expression" spinster

All that come to my mind is : "Tahtha Astu".

[harbans]

We have our civilian nuclear reactors running 40-50% capacity. With NSG approval, how fast could we bring production up to a reasonable level?

[Arun_S]

"It is also China's hope that the NSG would equally address the aspirations of all parties for the peaceful use of nuclear power while adhering to the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism," he said, apparently alluding to Pakistan's repeated attempts to get a civil nuclear deal with the United States, similar to the Indo-US agreement.

why discriminate against Xerox Khan..we are all for free trade onlee...


linky

Arman / Arzoo / Aspirations come for dime a dozen; nay they come for free.

Chini can keep singing:

• "Dil Kay Arman Asu-o Main Beh Gayey"

for the Baki Waqkth that is yet Baki in the life of "taller than mountain" friend Bakistan aka 'Bakri'stan

[Arun_S]

We have our civilian nuclear reactors running 40-50% capacity. With NSG approval, how fast could we bring production up to a reasonable level?

They can start burning the fuel in reactor core at Full power right away. With new mines coming on line in 12-18 months the reduced power level would have been to stretch it out that long. Expect Nuclear Deal to be consummated by December, and a IL76 plane load of fuel for NFC in December to open the inagural flow of imported juice.

Moreover the Partial power running was orchestrated exercise and I will not be surprised that unexpected reserve inventory is found/released or windows to extend the life of current fuel rods sharply reduced.

Bottom line the power level will go up almost immediately, not that it will matter much to total Indian electricity production.

[Suppiah]

Arun_S: Fuel supply would have to wait for identifying which ones that are going to be placed under safeguards? Or has that been done already?

[harbans]

Arun Ji thanks for confirming. Suppiah ji there are already reactors considered civilian and under IAEA safeguards already, those are the ones i was referring to. They are running at very low capacity. Their contribution to the grid can be greatly increased pretty soon as Arun Ji confirms.

[Suppiah]

There was a time when media was raising this question with fear - "Will oil hit $100?". Now they are raising the same question - with hope, since oil has declined much from $146 levels. However, this deal will hopefully contribute to another nail in the coffin of ME terrorists, Saudi Barbarians and their beloved TSP.

[Arun_S]

Arun Ji thanks for confirming. Suppiah ji there are already reactors considered civilian and under IAEA safeguards already, those are the ones i was referring to. They are running at very low capacity. Their contribution to the grid can be greatly increased pretty soon as Arun Ji confirms.

Sure saar.
Pls see page 2 of this pdf doc for reactors currently under IAEA as well those due for IAEA after separation.
http://www.indiaresearch.org/Indo-USStrategicDeal.pdf

[Suppiah]

Wow, quite an eye-opener article. Did not know we had so much capacity for nuclear weapons.

[SSridhar]

Fuel supply would have to wait for identifying which ones that are going to be placed under safeguards? Or has that been done already?

Just to make it very clear, India has to identify to the IAEA the facilities that will come under Paragraph 14(a) of the IAEA-India Agreement. Currently, the Annexure there is blank. Secondly, the Additional Protocol needs to eb agreed upon with the IAEA. Probably, the countries that are capable of supplying us with fuel would need a separate agreement. Upon completion of all these, fuel supply can start.

However, with the uncertainty now removed, those plants that were operating below par to conserve the fuel can start increasing their burn up as sooner than later we will have the fuel.

[sum]

Navika: What about China's role in this entire negotiation?

MK Narayanan: I must say that we are very disappointed, because at a very high level Chinese President Hu Jintao and Chinese Prime Minster Wen Jiabao had told our PM and their Foreign Minister told our Foreign Minister that China would not be a problem.

In the last 48 or 72 hours the Chinese did not show any tendency of opposing the deal. So when in the last 48 hours the Chinese sided with the sceptics, we were surprised and disappointed.

Surely, Our officials didnt expect the Chinese to allow smooth proceedings??

It just seems to be a way to get the message across to the Chinese that we noted their slinky perfidy...

[Avinash R]

India disappointed at Chinese stand

[Singha]

isnt this the first time in a couple of decades when India has openly and immediately expressed displeasure with the PRC and woken up their ambassador with a demarche ?

this cant have been spur of moment play, more like they have wanting to act rough but
hands tied until the NSG waiver came through. and no more dependent on Karat uncle's support.

with olympics and NSG gone, the PRC is now free to lash out ... fortunately the preparations by
India since spring to plug vital gaps should have raised the cost for their adventure.

[Suppiah]

MKN has always been open mouthed. He is the GF of this cabinet. MMS freed of Stalinist slavery could care a bit less now as well but that needs to be confirmed by words from either himself or Pranab at the very least. Let us not have high hopes. I would not be surprised to see a MOEA statement thanking China as well or doing a bit of white wash along the lines of what SV tried to do.

[enqyoob]

I stand collected and le-educated.

The former slogan is unable to achieve Consensus, with New Zealand, Austria, and other nations with Snowy mountains objecting. So the new, NSG-approved GREEN, Ummah-compatible, Fatwa-proof slogan is:

GIVE PEACE A CHANCE. PASTEURIZE PAKISTAN .

Even PM MMS and Chief Negotiator A, Kakodkar can object to this kind sentiment, can they? Completely compatible with Peaceful Uses of New Clear Energy.

[Sanjay]

Arun, would I be correct in saying that your position is as follows:

BARC's capabilities and capacity is not in doubt to develop and refine the arsenal, but as Indians we have no idea of what they've actually done in 10 years.

The problem is not so much capabilities but openess. As a nuclear power, we have an added duty to be more forthcoming with information. BARC seems to be stuck in the 1950s in terms of its approach to discussing these issues.

[kshirin]

It was not Unkil that got China to back off. That's all I'll say.

Putin got China to back off?
I didn't think anybody had enough leverage with China on a crucial issue like this.
The only thing I can think of, is that China is relying upon a healthy India to keep Dalai's followers in check, and that a crumbling India would only allow the entry of external powers who will agitate the Tibet issue. Just like how China doesn't like the idea of an independent Kashmir becoming a springboard for external actors. Keep India healthy, and the Tibet issue stays dormant. Not so different than Pak blackmail that a crumbling Pak will become a jihadi nest.

China does not want a healthy India, the weaker we are, the better for them, they have been behind the recent multiple sores erupting all over India. In the end they knew no NSG country would risk its bilateral relationship with India or could question India's integrity (the Pranab Mukherjee statement brought around the pipsqueak posturers and non-believers), and they were isolated. They don't like to be isolated like that in international fora and exposed for the visceral rivalry they harbour towards us, so they have to appear civilised and bow to the consensus.

But seriously, I am delighted that we woke up the Chinese Ambassador! With China and Pak, tit for tat works.

[enqyoob]

As a nuclear power, we have an added duty to be more forthcoming with information.

Blame the guvrmand for that, not BARC, though in future I would expect to see a huge improvement, very fast. Until recently (yesterday, come to think of it), the position of the "world" was that India had no "right" to have any nuclear anything. With the NPA freaks spinning lies about everything, and the domestic opposition like the Commies trying to shut down any Indian research, would YOU want to advertise what you have done, or just shut up except where it is absolutely essential?

One comes across the steady advances of BARC in the strangest places. For instance, BARC are experts on irradiating all sorts of materials to improve their strength and longevity. They have developed radio isotopes for numerous medical purposes....

I look forward to seeing more of their work becoming known to Indians.

As for the guvrmand, they don't believe in informing Indians. Even the Statement of Policy of the External Affairs Mantri, please note, was aimed to inform FOREIGNERS, not INDIANS.

Ask people inside India what they know of Indian nuclear policy.

This colonialist (I am appointed by the Raj!) attitude pervades Indian babudom, and will take a Modi or someone like that to smash. Circa 2000, the GOI came out with a White Paper On Terrorism. Try getting a copy as an Indian in India.

In 2005 the Indian Navy came out with a Comprehensive Report on the Indian Navy's Rescue and Relief Efforts After the Tsunami.

Try getting a copy as an Indian. In India. I have.

I bet I can pretty easily get both of these if I gave my name as Abdul Rashid of Trinity College, Connecticut, or Abdul bin Kabul from Oslo.

Racist pr1ckness against Indians pervades most of Indian Babudom, and the Armed Forces, sad to say, are no exception.

[VikramS]

Can someone shed more details on the wake the Chinese ambassador issue?

[Gerard]

Fissile Materials in South Asia: The Implications of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal
Zia Mian, A.H. Nayyar, R. Rajaraman and M. V. Ramana
http://www.fissilematerials.org/ipfm/si ... port01.pdf

The weapon grade plutonium production reactors, CIRUS and Dhruva, consume about another 35 tons of uranium annually.

Assuming that such high refueling rates are sustainable, then a typical 220 MWe pressurized heavy water reactor could produce between 150-200 kg/year of weapon grade plutonium when operated at 60-80 per cent capacity

The net requirement of extra uranium for running one 220 MWe reactor in production mode is 190 tons of natural uranium.

To offset the additional 190 tons/year of uranium required if India were to operate a single 220 MWe PHWR in weapon grade plutonium production mode, it could recycle some of the depleted uranium recovered from the spent fuel from this reactor into the other seven unsafeguarded power reactors. This scheme involves fuelling 25% of the core with depleted uranium (containing 0.61% U-235) and ends up saving 20% of the normal natural uranium requirement, with the average burn up reduced to 5400 MWd/tHM

The six currently operating reactors to be placed under safeguards will add to the current stock of 11.5 tons of reactor grade plutonium before they are opened to inspection. Operating at 80% capacity, each reactor would add about 120 kg/year of plutonium during its remaining unsafeguarded operation. The total contribution from these six reactors will be about 4300 kg before they are all finally under safeguards

The PFBR is designed to have a thermal power of 1250 MW and an initial inventory of 1910 kg of plutonium in its core.

we find that at 80% capacity the PFBR could produce on the order of 135 kg of weapon grade plutonium every year in its blanket.

India would appear to have more than sufficient unsafeguarded plutonium for placing all four of the planned breeders in the military sector. If these five breeders are built and all are kept military, then in about fifteen years, India would be able to produce about 500-800 kg per year of weapon grade plutonium from them

The most important potential increase in India’s weapon grade plutonium production will come from its unsafeguarded fast breeder reactor, the PFBR, to be completed in 2010. We have estimated that it could produce about 130 kg of weapon grade plutonium each year, a four-fold increase in India’s current production capability.Note that even in the absence of the U.S.-India deal, the breeder would have remained unsafeguarded and could have produced the same amount of plutonium.

[Raj Malhotra]

This is a repost.

Since there is going to be a lot of talk on INFCIRC 254 rev.9 §16, I'm posting it below.

Consultations
16.
(a) Suppliers should maintain contact and consult through regular channels on matters
connected with the implementation of these Guidelines.

(b) Suppliers should consult, as each deems appropriate, with other governments
concerned on specific sensitive cases, to ensure that any transfer does not contribute to
risks of conflict or instability.

(c) Without prejudice to sub-paragraphs (d) to (f) below:
− In the event that one or more suppliers believe that there has been a violation of
supplier/recipient understanding resulting from these Guidelines, particularly in the
case of an explosion of a nuclear device, or illegal termination or violation of IAEA
safeguards by a recipient, suppliers should consult promptly through diplomatic
channels in order to determine and assess the reality and extent of the alleged
violation. Suppliers are also encouraged to consult where nuclear material or
nuclear fuel cycles activity undeclared to the IAEA or a nuclear explosive activity
is revealed.
− Pending the early outcome of such consultations, suppliers will not act in a manner
that could prejudice any measure that may be adopted by other suppliers concerning
their current contacts with that recipient. Each supplier should also consider
suspending transfers of Trigger List items while consultations under 16(c) are
ongoing, pending supplier agreement on an appropriate response.
− Upon the findings of such consultations, the suppliers, bearing in mind Article XII
of the IAEA Statute, should agree on an appropriate response and possible action,
which could include the termination of nuclear transfers to that recipient.

(d) If a recipient is reported by the IAEA to be in breach of its obligation to comply with
its safeguards agreement, suppliers should consider the suspension of the transfer of
Trigger List items to that State whilst it is under investigation by the IAEA. For the
purposes of this paragraph, “breach” refers only to serious breaches of proliferation
concern;

(e) Suppliers support the suspension of transfers of Trigger List items to States that violate
their nuclear non-proliferation and safeguards obligations, recognising that the
responsibility and authority for such decisions rests with national governments or the
United Nations Security Council. In particular, this is applicable in situations where
the IAEA Board of Governors takes any of the following actions:
− finds, under Article XII.C of the Statute, that there has been non-compliance in the
recipient, or requires a recipient to take specific actions to bring itself into
compliance with its safeguards obligations;
− Decides that the Agency is not able to verify that there has been no diversion of
nuclear material required to be safeguarded, including situations where actions
taken by a recipient have made the IAEA unable to carry out its safeguards mission
in that State. An extraordinary Plenary meeting will take place within one month of the Board of
Governors’ action, at which suppliers will review the situation, compare national
policies and decide on an appropriate response.

(f) The provisions of subparagraph (e) above do not apply to transfers under paragraph 4
(b) of the Guidelines.

What would be the implication of Bold clause /red part?