International Nuclear Watch & Discussion

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Arun_S
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Arun_S »

I was busy with realities of life last few weeks and did not read this article.
RajeshA wrote:That is a very interesting Article in PhysicsToday:

The Chinese nuclear tests: 1964 - 1996: PDF
Stilman's visit to the SINR (05.04.1990) also produced his first insight into the extensive hospitality extended to Pakistani nuclear scientists during that same late-1980s time period. As we shall see, that cooperation, initiated earlier in the decade, led to a joint nuclear test in China soon after Stillman's departure.
In 1982 China's premier Deng Xiaping began the transfer of nuclear weapons technology to Pakistan and, in time, to other third world countries. Those transfers included blueprints for the ultrasimple CHIC-4 design using highly enriched uranium, first tested by China in 1966.
A Pakistani derivative of CHIC-4 apparently was tested in China on 26 May 1990.
Another set of interesting statements: http://ptonline.aip.org/journals/doc/PH ... 47_1.shtml
For one thing, the Chinese probably sought deterrence. An American awareness of Chinese nuclear capabilities should lead to a more cautious American military posture around Taiwan and in the Pacific Ocean. Or perhaps it was an intelligence gimmick. Chinese scientists often displayed the inner workings of their technical devices to American visitors just to see how they would react. A raised eyebrow or a sudden scowl could confirm or discount a year's work. Maybe Chinese nuclear technology was no longer top secret. With the coming of Deng Xiaoping's regime around 1980, the proliferation of nuclear technology into the third world had become state policy. Perhaps it was time to let the Americans have a look.
The tour next brought Stillman face-to-face with another of the mysterious visitors to New Mexico: the director of the Southwest Institute of Fluid Physics—a euphemism for the Chinese high explosives test facilities. That institute has access to nine test facilities: three outdoors in the hills well beyond Science City and six containment vessels—large steel spheres that contain the energy released by a few pounds of high explosive. The explosives are wrapped around heavy metals simulating uranium, and the vessels are sealed so as to recover the valuable and sometimes toxic metals involved in the experiment. Four large containment vessels were located in Science City and two smaller ones were housed indoors at the Institute of Applied Physics in Chengdu. All the test facilities were carefully instrumented to collect reams of data. The Chinese scientists were not simply conducting proof-of-principle tests; they wanted to understand the dynamics of nuclear pit implosions.
Some one earlier in the thread asked/suggested # of testes by various N weapons states and number of tests India needs in the next round. I like the terms used here. The number of tests is dependent on how many tests needed for "proof-of-principle" and how many to "understand the nuclear dynamics". The The former is "proof for deterrence" and the latter the "proof of capability". "Proof of capability" is a poor substitute for "Proof for deterrence".

BTW high energy LIF gives "Proof of capability" and to some extent "Proof of deterrence".
The Chinese scientists also understood the impact of thermal cycling on high explosives; they did not allow their nuclear weapons to remain exposed to sunlight for extended periods of time.
That led Stillman to raise a discussion of weapons security: "Do Chinese nuclear weapons contain design features or protective devices to preclude their unauthorized use?" The NINT director responded that terrorism was not a consideration in their nuclear weapons designs, that Chinese discipline precluded unauthorized use. At that time the Chinese weapons program relied on "politically reliable" guards, not electronics. The director did agree, however, that those safety and security policies needed to change. I suspect that such changes have since taken place.
They then revisited Science City, where Stillman learned far more than on his first trip there. For example, he was able to inspect the high-explosive test facilities. Adjacent to those test chambers were impressive flash x-ray machines, designed to illuminate implosions as they took place. Framing cameras nearby could operate at millions of frames per second. Pins within the imploding spheres delivered further data on implosion symmetry. The technology was state-of-the- art by any standard.
Haa... this one is a gem. All roads lead to Rome!!
The VIPs attending the Stillman visit had flown in from Beijing. Most spoke excellent English, and it seemed like they all talked about their children's achievements in the US. Even the engineer responsible for drilling vertical test shafts at Lop Nur had worked in the US during World War II; by 1990 his children were all enrolled in America's top engineering schools. The midnight barbecue in the Chinese desert seemed much like a cookout in the hills above Los Alamos.
The following give insight to diameter of hand digged shafts which are expected to be of smaller diameter than digging with any sort of mechanized drilling rig. Thus Ramana's estimation of Shakti-1 shaft depth based on the WOP data on the area of metal sheet used for wall containment and estimated diameter (based on Shakti photo and other description in WOP) is in agreement with this Chinese data point. That calculation clearly indicated that the shaft was for significantly higher yield than 45kt.
At the time of Stillman's visit, drilling rigs were at work on 2- to 2.5-m diameter holes for nuclear device emplacement. Drilling technology was archaic by US standards; the drillers were advancing through the underlying granite at a rate of only two meters per day.
ramana
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by ramana »

Arun_S, The credit is not mine but the co-author's!

BTW you have gleaned a lot of info from that article than most of us. Do you note the flash x-ray machines make is not mentioned! The Western observers were knowingly or unknowingly peer reviewing the PRC designs!

The 1980 time frame is very important in many respects. Mrs G got back into power and her best advisers were dissuading her from conduting a test while the PRC was busy transferring stuff and mind you Cold War hadn't ended. In retrospect that was the best time to test to make the world acknowledge rise of India. But we had a failure of assessment in the IAS and IFS and the political class.

The anit-nuke lobby was quite active politically inthe liberal/left wing groups.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by nkumar »

The 1980 time frame is very important in many respects. Mrs G got back into power and her best advisers were dissuading her from conduting a test while the PRC was busy transferring stuff and mind you Cold War hadn't ended. In retrospect that was the best time to test to make the world acknowledge rise of India. But we had a failure of assessment in the IAS and IFS and the political class.
Who were her advisers in the 80s? KS ??
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

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Paul
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Paul »

Who were her advisers in the 80s? KS ??
There were a lot of advisors but the Kashmiri pandit cabal took pride of place. ML Fotedar, PN Haksar, DP Dhar etc. were amongst them.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Isotope shortage may delay scans

I wonder if Ireland or New Zealand (or most NSG members) can supply Mo99.

But India can...
http://www.dae.gov.in/ni/niapr01/yr2000_4.htm
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Singha »

is Dhar also a kashmiri pandit surname? I know it is one in bengal.

>> PN Haksar

I wonder what his posture was? the daughter nandita is a leading 'human rights'
lawyer in delhi defending the you-know-who types.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/India/IndiaSmiling.html
Outside of those actually working on the project, only about three other people in India knew of it - Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, her trusted adviser and former principal secretary P.N. Haksar, and her current principal secretary D.P. Dhar. No government ministers, including the Defense Minister, were informed.
Ramanna indicates in his autobiography that a round of decision making meetings occurred in 1974 prior to the test. The meetings included only Ramanna, Sethna, Nag Chaudhuri, Haksar and Dhar. The first was held probably in February when successful tests indicated the device was nearing completion. The final meeting occurred a "few weeks" prior to the 18 May test. Both Dhar and Haksar opposed the test to varying degrees, the three PNE program leaders supported it strongly. It was of course PM Gandhi's decision, and she ordered it to go ahead.
One memorable quote from Haksar
if by eating grass one can produce atom bombs, then by now cows and horses would have produced them. But, of course, the people of Pakistan under the great and charismatic leadership to which they are now exposed might produce a bomb on a diet of grass
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

ramana
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by ramana »

Gerard, There was another the babu who controlled the purse. He was the one who relayed the message to the PM. But he wants to be not named.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by G Subramaniam »

Singha wrote:is Dhar also a kashmiri pandit surname? I know it is one in bengal.

Yes, Dhar is also a kashmiri pandit name
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by G Subramaniam »

Singha wrote:is Dhar also a kashmiri pandit surname? I know it is one in bengal.

>> PN Haksar

I wonder what his posture was? the daughter nandita is a leading 'human rights'
lawyer in delhi defending the you-know-who types.

Haksar was a commie
He was a DIE

In 1972 at the Simla Talks
Anyone with an Indian historical sense would have remembered Prithviraj's foolishness in forgiving Ghori
and pushed for the harshest peace terms on TSP
Instead, Haksar remembered the collapse of Weimar due to the harsh Versailles treaty
and urged a soft peace treaty

His daughter Nandita Haksar married a Naga separatist
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Bade »

More proliferation related article from Physics today.

The gas centrifuge and nuclear weapons proliferation
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Yucca Mountain Dump under review
Federal nuclear regulators have agreed to consider the government's application for a license to build a radioactive waste dump in Nevada.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by RajeshA »

Increased Nuclear Energy Demand Boosts Namibia by Brigitte Weidlich: Inter Press Services
WINDHOEK, Sep 9 (IPS) - The worldwide scramble for energy sources due to dwindling fossil fuel reserves has placed renewed emphasis on nuclear energy as solution for future needs. As a result, Namibia in south-western Africa is experiencing a uranium boom.

With around 3,800 tons of annual production, Namibia is the world’s sixth largest uranium producer. Its delivery of seven percent of world uranium production has led to the country being wooed by big powers that wish to secure supplies for their nuclear energy expansion plans.

Spot prices doubled in 2007, reaching 136 dollars per pound but recently levelling at around 82 dollars a pound.

Currently over 40 foreign companies obtained exclusive prospecting licences (EPLs) from Namibia’s mines and energy ministry (MME). Two uranium mines are operational and 12 more are in the pipeline.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Main work done on nuclear weapons storehouse
Major construction on a $549 million high-security warehouse in Tennessee to hold the government's largest cache of weapons-grade uranium has been completed.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Russia bristles at US scrapping nuclear deal
The deal would have allowed Moscow to establish a lucrative business as the center for the import and storage of spent nuclear fuel from American-supplied reactors around the world.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Sanjay M »

Seems like part of the purpose of that GNEP was for the US to keep Russia onside during the US negotiations with India over 123. Now that the US has gotten the 123 Waiver out of the way, the US can dump NSG-member Russia by the roadside.
I don't feel the timing is coincidental.

But this unceremonious dumping of Russia from the US camp only means that Russia is now more free to enter our camp occasionally, when the need arises.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Blueprint for nuclear bomb on internet, warns UN
Mr ElBaradei revealed that Libya had taken steps to set up a plant for plutonium reprocessing using a German design, an alternative route to building a bomb than the off-the-shelf design for uranium enrichment supplied to the Libyans by the Khan network.

"They [the Libyans] had the know-how for plutonium reprocessing," said an IAEA official. "They were buying the technological know-how from small companies or individuals, regrettably in the West."
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Russian ballistic missiles in N. Pacific
Russian submarines armed with intercontinental ballistic missiles will test fire their rockets in the north Pacific Ocean September 15-20
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Australian Govt backs away from Russian uranium deal
Labor backbenchers on the Parliament's Joint Treaties Committee have urged the Government to impose eight additional stringent conditions on Russia, including the separation of Russia's civil and military nuclear facilities and the resumption of International Atomic Energy Agency inspections of facilities that will take Australian uranium.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

Russia Successfully Fires New Ballistic Missile
Russian Defense Ministry officials say the Bulava missile was launched Thursday from a Russian nuclear submarine. Its warheads struck their designated targets on Russia's far-eastern Kamchatka Peninsula.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by NRao »

'Iran halfway to first nuclear bomb'

The bums club is growing!
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

North Korea stokes nuclear bomb fears
NORTH Korea has asked the United Nations' nuclear watchdog to remove seals and surveillance equipment from the Yongbyon nuclear reactor.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Philip »

Excellent piece on Russia's early SSBN developoment.

http://orenburg.kp.ru/daily/24167.5/380291/

Early Soviet nuclear submarine history: How the Soviet Union developed underwater missiles (22.09.2008)

Early Soviet nuclear submarine history: How the Soviet Union developed underwater missiles

These Soviet intercontinental missiles couldn’t be raised on board. They were too heavy!

KP.RU, Viktor Baranets — 22.09.2008
All Russian schoolchildren love playing "You Sunk My Battleship." Remember? But when NATO ships began appearing along the Georgian shore, Russians back at home started worrying -- even though Russia and the U.S. both share a strong fleet on and under the water.

Not long ago, a new nuclear Virginia-class submarine made its debut in the U.S. naval forces. The submarine was built within four and a half years. Russia's analogous missile cruisers, the "Yury Dolgorukiy" and "Severodvinsk," have been stalled on the production line for 15 years -- and it's still uncertain when they'll set to sea as their missiles aren't yet ready. The U.S. nuclear submarine fleet is already leaps and bounds ahead of Russia's. Can we catch up? KP correspondent and officer Viktor Baranets spoke with military analyst and candidate of military sciences, Colonel Mikhail Polezhaev to learn a bit about the history behind the world’s two strongest nuclear submarine fleets.

A Polish tailor's son was the mastermind of the U.S. nuclear fleet

KP: Mikhail Aleksandrovich, how did nuclear submarine fleets come into being?

Polezhaev: In 1945, the U.S. developed nuclear weapons. President Truman said: "Today, the U.S. is the most powerful country in the world, and we must use our this power responsibly to safeguard peace." In answer, Joseph Stalin strengthened his grip on the Socialist block and developed nuclear weapons of his own...

At the time, U.S. bombers were positioned at European military base. But the political situation was so unstable, they could have been asked to leave at any moment. As a result, the U.S. placed its emphasis on developing their navy. In December 1945, Moscow learned the U.S. was creating submarines with nuclear capability.

KP: How did the Soviet Union learn what the U.S. was doing? It certainly wasn't being written about in the papers...

Polezhaev: The same way information about the nuclear bomb had surfaced... Intelligence! It wasn't sensational news at all for the Soviet authorities when the world's first nuclear submarine, "Nautilus," set sail in Groton in 1954. The same goes for the submarine's parameters -- about 100 meters with a 4,000-ton water displacement.

KP: Who was the first person to come up with the idea to create nuclear submarines?

Polezhaev: The U.S. counterintelligence agent, Admiral George Hyman Rickover, who was the son of a Polish tailor who emigrated to the U.S.

Secret "Object 627"

KP: How did the Kremlin react to the event?

Polezhaev: Two years before the "Nautilus" set sail, on Sept. 9. 1952, Stalin signed a secret regulation "On Designing and Building ‘Object 627.'" On Aug. 9, 1957, “Object 627,” a submarine tagged with strategic number “K-3,” set sail! The submarine was named the “Lenin Komsomol.” The submarine traveled at 23.3 knots while running at 60 percent of its capacity! "Nautilus" only hit 20 knots at full speed!

KP: Who was the main engineer?

Polezhaev: The creator of the Soviet Union's first nuclear submarine was Vladimir Nikolaevich Peregudov. He is considered the “Tupolev” of Russian shipbuilding.

Submarine arsenal

KP: Were the U.S. submarines equipped with missiles straight off the bat?

Polezhaev: The summer trials of the Polaris-A1 missiles started in 1958. In November 1960, the arms were commissioned for use. Five George Washington submarines were equipped with 16 apiece. The Polaris A-1 was followed by the Poseidon and later the Trident.


The “Murena” nuclear submarine frightened the U.S. Its missiles could destroy any target in the U.S. from Washington DC to California.

KP: How did the Soviet Union arm its submarines?

Polezhaev: At the time, in the 1950s, our strategic operational officers understood that a nuclear strike could only be launched on the U.S. from the ocean. We didn't have aerodromes in Canada, for example. So we chose submarines as our weapons for such a strike. And this turned out to be a wise decision. First submarines, and then of course torpedoes!

In 1952 at Arzamas-16, nuclear warheads entered development for two different torpedoes: the T-5 at 533 millimeters and the T-15 at 1,550 millimeters. The lower-caliber torpedo was fixed on all the Soviet Union’s submarines. The monstrous high-caliber torpedo with a length of 24 meters was designed for the K-3 -- the “Whale,” or the “Lenin Komsomols” -- which had the NATO codename “November.”

The navy was enthused by the "small" T-5 nuclear torpedo project. The torpedo increased the operational capabilities of the submarines by 10 kilometers and 10 kilotons. The T-5 was completed with trials at Novaya Zemlya. In 1957, the torpedo was commissioned. However, the navy was against using the T-15. Submarine armed with these missiles were designated for executing one task -- striking naval bases. There were no bases with straight navigating channels and the T-15 couldn't be maneuvered. And if the torpedo hit port cities, there would undoubtedly be civilian causalities.

Academic Sakharov's idea didn't pass

KP: But there are documents in the Soviet archives that show even the most humane of individuals supported using the T-15 missiles like the renowned academic Sakharov!

Polezhaev: Yes, on Oct. 30, 1961, Sakharov’s superbomb underwent trials at 58 megatons. The projected capacity of the missile was in fact 100 megatons, but the bomb was tested at half-power. The bomb's length was 8 meters and weighed 27 tons. However, it turned out the Soviet Union didn’t have any planes or missiles that could actually carry the bomb. Quite a contradiction. Could they have made supertorpedoes to attack port cities based on the T-15? One of the first people with whom Sakharov spoke about the project was the counter agent and Admiral Fomin. He was shocked by the project's potential of taking so many civilian lives. Sakharov realized the navy was used to openly fighting armed opponents and the idea of such mass killings was revolting.

KP: What happened later? Did Sakharov refuse to develop his ideas further?

Polezhaev: Sakharov never discussed the project with anyone else again. Read his diaries. Life isn‘t easy...

Kerosene bombs

KP: How did ballistic missiles get on board our nuclear submarines?

Polezhaev: In early 1959, the R-11 FM missile was commissioned. It was a single-stage missile that ran on liquid fuel -- kerosene. The missile could travel about 150 kilometers with a radial probable error of 0.75 kilometers. The missiles could only be launched while on the surface of the water, with the silo hoods raised. The submarine and its crew would be doomed while preparing to strike their opponent for 15-20 minutes.

KP: How was this problem resolved?

Polezhaev: In mid-1963, there was a revolution in the history of the Soviet Union's submarine fleet. The R-21 missiles were commissioned, which could be deployed underwater! This was one of the most important moment's in the Soviet Union's nuclear history. Twenty-three submarines were built that were equipped with underwater launching capability. Now the U.S. faced a force to be reckoned with!
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Gerard »

N Korea nuclear seals 'removed'
The removal of seals and cameras "was completed today", a spokeswoman for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said. "There are no more IAEA seals and surveillance equipment in place at the reprocessing facility," she added.
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Re: International nuclear watch & discussion -27-Apr-08

Post by Philip »

Dear Leader Kim boots out the inspectors and starts N-ops again! So much for the terms of any N-deal .(Spin-doctor,are U listening?).This action by "Dear leader" Kim,is sublimely timed,coming just as the US Congress in a state of economic crisis,is to vote on India's N-deal.Dear leader Kim has by this act of "breaking (nuclear) wind",has delivered a hell of a stink in the hallowed halls of the IAEA and the White House.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/se ... ea.nuclear

North Korea kicks out inspectors and reopens nuclear plant
(AFP/GETTY)
Washington has linked the continued absence of Kim Jong Il and the new hardline policy

Leo Lewis in Tokyo

In a highly provocative snub to Washington, Beijing and Seoul, North Korea has broken the United Nations seals that had disabled its nuclear programme, and said it would soon begin feeding atomic material back into its Yongbyon facility.

As well as kicking UN nuclear watchdog inspectors out of the country and re-opening its reprocessing plant, Pyongyang is now likely to demand the removal of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) seals on the thousands of plutonium fuel rods removed from the plant last year.

The fuel rods represent the most critical ingredient in the resurrection of Kim Jong Il’s nuclear weapons programme – a scenario which the United States and North Korea’s immediate neighbours thought they had negotiated off the table and are desperate to avoid.

The sudden policy reverse by Pyongyang also comes amid swirling doubts over the health of North Korea’s enigmatic and unpredictable dictator.

Kim’s non-appearance at a series of high profile public events in North Korea has triggered speculation that the “Dear Leader” of the nuclear-armed communist country may be extremely ill, incapacitated or even dead.

Defence analysts in Washington and Seoul have begun to question how far the sudden shift in North Korea’s behaviour reflects a change in power structures beneath the regime’s opaque surface.

On Monday, the US assistant secretary of state and chief nuclear negotiator with Pyongyang, Christopher Hill, openly speculated that the regime’s tougher line in the past month clearly corresponded to the reported failure of Kim’s health.

The restarting of North Korea’s nuclear programme follows threats from Pyongyang last week that it would abandon the so-called Six Party Talks – a series of prickly negotiations between the two Koreas, the US, Japan, China and Russia that have frequently collapsed.

Despite the many diplomatic frustrations of the process, though, it did appear last year that progress was being made: as well as agreeing to dismantle its nuclear programme in exchange for aid, and allowing IAEA inspectors to monitor the shutdown, Pyongyang broadcast images of the controlled detonation of an old cooling tower.

But yesterday’s potentially incendiary move sets the entire progress of disarmament talks back at square one and comes amid growing toxicity of relations between North Korea and the outside world.

A major contributor to the tensions surrounding the nuclear programme has been the continued designation of North Korea by the US as a sponsor of terrorism.

North Korea appeared on the brink of leaving the list, but over the summer, the US negotiators adopted a harder line. In an increasingly tense rhetorical climate, Pyongyang then declared that it no longer cared whether or not it was on the list, depriving Washington of one of its few bargaining chips.

Analysts in Seoul said that the restarting of Yongbyon, which would take at least 12 months to complete, would provide the North with a useful bargaining tool as the issues of Kim’s health – and the still unanswered question over who might succeed him – came more fully to light. With the plant partially re-started, North Korea might expect to win further concessions or aid as it struggles with massive food and energy shortages ahead of the notoriously bitter Korean winter.
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