Global Economy

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Manu
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Manu »

Sorry about that. And as it happens, 88 Wall Street is not connected to any Panda :mrgreen: . Moi got confused with 88 Fulton St which is the address for SDRE 'Tandoor Palace'.

60 Wall Street = Deutsche Bank
85 Broad Street = GS
Citi (formerly Solomon Smith Barney) = 388 Greenwich Street

I don't remember the exact address of UBS, but it is right next to the Waldorf Astoria. And Credit Suisse is above the Indo-French Restaurant, 'Tabla' on Madison.
Rupesh
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Rupesh »

Capitalism - it's painful, but it works
By Jeff Randall

After a year of grim financial news, it would be easy to dismiss the collapse of Lehman Brothers as just another bad day at the office. Easy, but wrong.

This is a rare defining moment, when regulators call the bluff of those who say that the demise of such an important bank will ruin our economic infrastructure. It is the day of reckoning.

In throwing Lehman to the dogs, US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is betting heavily that dire warnings of "contagion", "systemic risk" and "domino effect" are little more than special pleading from hitherto Masters of the Universe who would like the taxpayer to save their over-priced skins. It is quite a punt.

advertisementSoon enough we will discover if the core of Western finance is just an elaborate Ponzi scheme, underpinned only by new waves of suckers, or an imperfect but flexible machinery that, despite its flaws, has the capacity to withstand shocks.

Either way, it seems to me, Paulson was right to turn off the tap. If the system is rotten, why shore it up? If it's not, then it will - somehow - survive without more state aid.

The next test may not be far away. Right behind Lehman, in the departure lounge of life, is AIG, the giant insurance group, that lost $18.5 billion in the first nine months of this year.

Forget covering conventional risks such as hurricanes and floods, AIG was beguiled by the complexity of "credit default swaps" and is in urgent need of many billions to shore up its balance sheet. Yesterday the insurance regulator threw it a lifeline, but it remains on the critical list.

Lehman got what it deserved: to be the test case for a Darwinian shake-out. I fail to see why garbage collectors in Gloomsville should pay taxes so that $1,000-an-hour bankers can retain their seats at the Wall Street casino. They had their fun and they lost their chips. Correction, they lost other people's chips.

All right, so directors' share options are no longer worth anything, but all those jackpot bonuses have been banked - and they're not coming back. Lehman provides the latest egregious example of reward for failure.

Were it not so serious, the role reversal would be hilarious. For years, US governments have called in titans of finance for advice on how to run federal affairs more effectively.

Now, those clever clogs who were once deemed to have all the answers are asking difficult questions, like: "May we have some help, please, we appear to have burned through our shareholders' reserves?"

What little faith I had in financial wizardry was blown away 10 years ago when Long Term Capital Management, a hedge fund set up by a couple of economists with Nobel Prizes in the cupboard, went pop. Lehman, I'm afraid, went the same way: bamboozling itself.

Over lunch at its Canary Wharf offices, you could feel the heat from all those first-class brains, working out how to make billions from financial products that only an expert in nuclear fusion could comprehend. I didn't have a clue what they were talking about. The trouble is, it turns out, neither did they.

As a former Goldman Sachs executive, Paulson understands that the unravelling of Lehman is not a sign, per se, that free markets are failing. Quite the reverse. They work best when driving out weak and inefficient operators. Creation and destruction are part of the game.

Nobody said that capitalism was devised to provide soft landings for hopeless losers. Sending a message that all sinners will be saved only encourages reckless behaviour.

Meddling politicians often find this impossible to accept. They would rather pay a stricken company's ransom than face the wrath of voters whose interests are linked to a business about to go bust.

Which explains Gordon Brown's willingness to jet-hose a relative tiddler like Northern Rock with Treasury largesse, instead of allowing the bank to take its chances in administration. The Rock's nationalisation was not about saving the banking system from oblivion. I

t was a cynical and unduly expensive exercise in electoral engineering failed to instill confidence in other UK mortgage lenders (shares in wobbly Halifax Bank of Scotland fell by more than 15 per cent yesterday).

By contrast, in America, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were special cases. Not because they are inextricably linked to the US housing market - although that is true ($5.4 trillion of liabilities) - but because from the outset they were "government-sponsored" private companies.

As quasi state bodies, their implicit guarantee was that Washington stood behind them. Had they gone under, it would have told the world that Uncle Sam was happy to renege on his promises.

While unbothered by the wiping out of shareholders in Fannie and Freddie, the US Treasury was determined to preserve value for their bondholders. The reason was that these bonds are held in vast quantities by foreign governments, notably China's, whose confidence Washington is desperate not to lose.

With more than $1 trillion of foreign-exchange reserves, China is equally anxious that America's economy, and with it the dollar, does not get flushed away.

As Paulson was blocking state aid to Lehman, Merrill Lynch sold itself to Bank of America in what looks like a panic-stricken dash for the lifeboats while they still exist. Founded in 1914, Merrill's corporate logo is a raging bull.

Who could have imagined that by charging about in the china shop of sub-prime mortgages, the bank's hubristic management would smash 94 years of independence? The Thundering Herd, as Merrill is known, looks more like The Blundering Nerd.

That said, the price Bank of America is paying is a hefty premium to Merrill's recent share price - and none of the money is from US Treasury coffers.

Add Lehman and Merrill to Bear Stearns, which fell into the arms of JP Morgan at a knockdown price earlier this year, and it becomes clear that investment banking has changed forever. Never again, at least not until the next time, will they be allowed such free rein.

After this mess is over - perhaps even before then - there will be a regulatory backlash. Everything from credit risk and lending ratios to salaries and share issues will come under fiercer scrutiny.

The high-water mark of US financial hegemony was passed several years ago, when both government and consumers became addicted to cheap debt to pay bills they could not afford. The problem was, too few seemed to notice.

The richest nation on earth carried on borrowing and spending until the fantasy morphed into madness: Ninja debtors - No Income, Jobs or Assets - were lent money by wannabe alchemists to buy homes at unfathomable valuations.

A couple of years ago, Steve Forbes, the former US presidential candidate and business publisher, told me he thought the American car industry was going bust. He said it was only a matter of time before Detroit's finest turned up in Washington looking for a comprehensive bail-out, costing tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

What's more, he predicted, they would get the money.

Had Lehman been handed a get-out-of-jail card, demands for similar treatment from other beleaguered businesses would have poured on to Paulson's desk. There are plenty of them. General Motors and Ford have made pre-emptive strikes.

Remarkable, isn't it, how those who champion the survival of the fittest are quickly converted into supporters of lame ducks when they become one. Banks that deprecated state intervention while sloshing about in easy money are calling for the creation of government agencies to "facilitate the consolidation of the financial sector".

The trouble with inviting in governments is that they don't know when to leave.

As the world's buyer of last resort, the American shopper is exhausted. Having drained all credit, he can barely keep up with mortgage payments and is scared stiff that his job is about to be axed. The world's locomotive of consumption is leaking oil.

Not since the Wall Street Crash of nearly 80 years ago has the financial system that supports Joe Sixpack's lifestyle been so severely stretched. Lehman has gone, others seem sure to follow. There will be no quick fix.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... eff116.xml
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

apparently halifax bank of scotland is in talks with Llyods bank to create a 'retail banking
giant' and duly save its own skin in the process.

Spain which enjoyed many years of UK type 'growth' seems quiet. koi bank-shank
collapse nahi kiya abhi tak?

I expect the miserly dutch, germans and scandinavians will move through this with
little damage (?)
Paul
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Paul »

Hey Wrdos, what is the PRC media have to say about AIG's $85B bailout by the feds and the $1B loan to Georgia to shore up their infrastructure.

After all, it is your money that is being used to bail out Wall street.... :(( ain't it?
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

while villages in Sichuan lie in rubble :roll:
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

UK economy is headed into recession

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008 ... redundancy

The recent influx of migrant workers to the UK - many of whom are now going home - should also cushion the impact of falling employment. Since 2004, when eight eastern European countries joined the EU, about 845,000 migrant workers were attracted to the UK by the thriving job market. Approximately half have returned and more are following.

.......

As part of the government's housing package this month, Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, announced that people who lost their jobs would be able to claim financial support to help with mortgage interest payments after 13 weeks, instead of 39 weeks as at present. The Treasury is keen to prevent job losses leading to a wave of repossessions and forced sales in the housing market, driving prices lower in a vicious circle.
svinayak
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

Image
http://www.progressivehistorians.com/20 ... ntons.html
A 2003 article by Michael Hudson in Southern Exposure of captures it all:

Citigroup looks the way it does today because Weill bought a middling-sized subprime finance company and used it as a vehicle to acquire other companies and create a behemoth that put him in position to win the biggest prize of all: Citi. The 1998 merger was, at the time, the largest in history, uniting Citicorp, Travelers Insurance, Primerica, Commercial Credit, and Salomon Smith Barney.


Hudson's article details the rise of Sandy Weill which began with his 1986 purchase of subprime lender Commercial Credit. In short, Citigroup--which essentially engineered the repeal of Glass-Steagall--had its beginnings in a subprime lender. But more on that later.

The important point is that since the mainstream media and those with more economic expertise than I possess refuse to connect the dots and fill in the picture, the situation demands a follow-up that specifically details the role of the repeal of Glass-Steagall in the current financial crisis.

The two key questions that need to be asked are: 1) If Bill Clinton had not repealed Glass-Steagall would the current crisis not have occurred or been less severe? and, 2) Do we need to bring back Glass-Steagall? To understand the answers to both questions you need to know exactly what Glass-Steagall prohibited and how the bill that repealed it changed those prohibitions. In short, You need to know a bit of history.
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

if the current US reaches 25% unemployment there will be civil war in the streets and
forests. only countries with generous benefits like germany or scandinavia can tolerate
such high levels of unemployment.

there are close to 300mil legal firearms in the US population, no lack of anger against
anybody else - big govt, small govt, hispanics, blacks, joos, world council of jewry,
canadians, ragheads you name it. on top of that the hispanics and blacks are also
heavily armed and will defend their turf strongly.

I would say 10% is the max a hard fighting, hard drinking and heavily armed 'robber capitalist'
society like the US can tolerate without Govt having to undertake draconian measures
to deploy law and order :mrgreen:
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

I am getting little nervous, is Money Market Fund the same as Money Market Account? I have some MMA accounts, the high-yield (yeah ~3% is high these days) ones which are little different from the regular savings one. Does anybody know where these are invested?

News: Money Market Fund Says Customers Could Lose Money
Last edited by SwamyG on 17 Sep 2008 21:25, edited 1 time in total.
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

its very rare that you lose the principal on MM funds. $1 should atleast leave you with $1
though inflation would constantly chip away at its real value. they invest in municipal bonds
and short term corporate and govt bonds I think - of the safe variety like AAA....thats my
understanding.

MM account is probably just another name for a sweep a/c where all your deposit is
swept into MM investment but sold and converted to cash as and when you withdraw
periodically.

but these are special times...if someone has listed what happened in the last 2 weeks
say 10 yrs ago he'd have the audience rolling in laughter.
Last edited by Singha on 17 Sep 2008 21:27, edited 1 time in total.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Morgan and Goldman plummet, HBOS in talks
NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Shares of Wall Street firms Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs plummeted on Wednesday and the UK's biggest mortgage lender, HBOS Plc, looked set to be bought in the latest signs of financial industry distress.

Tuesday's $85 billion rescue of insurer American International Group (AIG.N) by the U.S. Federal Reserve did little to calm investor nerves.

The move capped a week of bailouts, a bankruptcy on Wall Street, and central banks around the world flooding the financial system with money to prevent it from seizing up.

The result: a seismic shift in the financial industry, with some of Wall Street's biggest names disappearing overnight.

But investors remained spooked, and U.S. stocks dropped as much as 3 percent in morning trading.

"The fear is who is next," said John O'Brien, senior vice president at MKM Partners LLC in Cleveland. "It almost feels like people scour the books and say who is the next likely target that we can put a short on, and that spreads continuous fear."

In the latest sign of regulatory anxiety, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission tightened enforcement of rules against abusive short-selling, or investor bets on declining share prices.

Shares of Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and larger rival Goldman (GS.N) and fell as much as 42 percent and 22 percent, respectively, even after both reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Tuesday.

"I'm assuming that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are lining up dancing partners. They don't want to be ... this week's victim," said William Larkin, fixed income manager at Cabot Money Management in Salem, Massachusetts.

The cost of protecting their debt spiked, reflecting investor fears that their debt issues are no safer than junk bonds. Both are currently rated investment grade.

"The credit crunch and credit contraction is intensifying," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York. "The action in Morgan Stanley in light of what was better-than-expected numbers last night is disconcerting."

Other signs of distress had emerged earlier: The cost of borrowing overnight dollars spiked above 10 percent, indicating a deep lack of trust spooking the inter-bank lending market in Europe.

And Bank of Ireland (BKIR.I) became the latest bank to cut its dividend, causing a sell-off in Irish banking shares.

PROPPING UP THE SYSTEM

British bank Lloyds TSB (LLOY.L) was in advanced talks to buy domestic rival HBOS Plc (HBOS.L) to create a 28 billion pound ($50 billion) mortgage giant, marking another chapter in a dramatic financial industry shake-up.

The talks underscore how quickly authorities around the world are ditching long-held beliefs about free markets and competition as they seek to counter the credit crunch.

Lloyds, for example, was previously blocked from buying a smaller mortgage bank.

Then there was the shock British government decision in February take over troubled bank Northern Rock -- the first major nationalization in Britain since the 1970s.

U.S. authorities also have moved to prop up the financial system.

The AIG rescue comes just over a week after the bailout of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N), and six months after the Fed brokered the sale of failed investment bank Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N)

AIG's bailout brings to about $900 billion the total of U.S. rescue efforts to stabilize the financial system and housing market. Authorities may get much of that money back -- if asset prices don't slide further.

The week already saw two legendary firms bite the dust, with Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc's (LEH.N) filing for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch (MER.N) throwing itself into the arms of Bank of America (BAC.N).

British bank Barclays Plc (BARC.L) gave Wall Street a small boost on Tuesday by agreeing to buy Lehman's Manhattan headquarters and investment bank for $1.75 billion and taking aboard 10,000 staff.

YARD SALE AT AIG

AIG's newly appointed chief, former Allstate (ALL.N) CEO Edward Liddy, was poised to hold a big yard sale to pay off the $85 billion loan from the Fed. There are plenty of interested bidders, AIG's main regulator told business television channel CNBC.

AIG, which has businesses ranging from life insurance to airplane leasing in 130 countries, has a big incentive to raise cash: It is currently paying more than 11.4 percent interest on the loan.

Japan's cash rich insurers and Australia's top player are seen as potential buyers are among the potential; buyers analysts and fund managers said.

"Its a no-brainer," said CLSA analyst Yuin Lim in Hong Kong. "If you have a non-growing mature market, excessive capital, you have a big war chest there."

AIG faced a cash crunch after $18 billion of losses over three quarters, largely because of complex securities that are tied to mortgages, and which plunged in value as the nation's housing crisis deepened.

AIG's lifeline was meant to prevent a deepening of the credit crisis and sooth investors. The rescue kept AIG from surpassing Lehman as the largest corporate failure ever.

"Thank God," exclaimed Daniel Fuss, an influential bond manager who oversees more than $100 billion at Loomis, Sayles & Co in Boston late Tuesday. "AIG is interwoven with so many people and touches many companies around the world."

(Additional reporting by Jeffrey Hodgson and Kevin Plumberg; Editing by Ted Kerr and John Wallace)
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

reliable info being the WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122156888040242963.html

* SEPTEMBER 17, 2008

Lending Among Banks Freezes

By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP, MARK WHITEHOUSE and NEIL SHAH


Banks abruptly stopped lending to each other or charged exorbitantly high rates Tuesday, threatening to spread the troubles of American International Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to a broad range of financial institutions and the global economy.

The breakdown came despite efforts by central bankers to keep money flowing. Central banks in the U.S., Europe and Japan pumped tens of billions of dollars each into the banking system. The Federal Reserve, while declining to lower its benchmark interest rate at a regular meeting Tuesday, said it will "act as needed" to combat ills including tight credit and the ...
Last edited by Singha on 17 Sep 2008 21:36, edited 1 time in total.
Suraj
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Suraj »

Anyone who holds toxic US debt will usually be happy with de facto nationalization, as in the case of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Chinese held huge amounts of FNM and FRE, and therefore enjoy the added assurance from the US treasury bond swap for FNM/FRE shares. However, this crisis will still erode both their holdings and the currency (USD) of the holdings, so it can't be a happy proposition either way for anyone.
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

who would have though stocks like morgan stanley and Gsachs dropping like stones 38% and 22%
on a day with no bad news - just like that. Gsachs is one of the 'keystones' of american power.

I am really worried now.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Okay, I have no clue on who this guy is. He looks to be from Panama, and probably does not see eye to eye with N.America or the European West.

But this particular blog is interesting. The Bank for International Settlements

Excerpt:
Who controls global monetary affairs? The BIS! Based in Basle, Switzerland, the BIS is central bank to central banks. The BIS has greater immunity than a sovereign nation, is accountable to no one, runs global monetary affairs and is privately owned. This is a must-read report to understand the globalization process.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

I have a question to currency gurus. If I am correct when a Tsunami is going to strike, the water from the shores recedes into the ocean, and then bang the Tsunami hits. Twisting this analogy - dollar:rupee ratio has been erratic recently. $1=Rs46.63, that is like obscene. Is dollar going to tank now?

Or is Rupee further going to tank?
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

afaik the rupee was supposed to get stronger with dollar going towards another type of white
paper. but Suraj guru was saying RBI slept on the wheel wrt to some "rupee futures" and so it
moved outa our paws to a lawless den like dubai where anyone can move money. and supposedly
thats why rupee is weakening. rupee was this weak ~47 last in 1999.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Money.What it is.How it works
The above URL gives some basics into money, banking system, financial markets, payment systems, government finance etc.
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

IMF head: worst of financial crisis may lie ahead
Wednesday September 17, 4:46 am ET

JEDDAH (Reuters) - The worst of the financial crisis may still lie ahead and more major financial institutions may face trouble in coming months, IMF director general Dominique Strauss-Kahn said on Wednesday.

"The roots of the crisis are behind us, the roots being the fall in housing prices. The consequences for some financial institutions are still in front of us. We have to expect that there may be in the coming weeks and coming months other financial institutions with some problems," he said.

Still, the world economy was very resilient and should rebound in 2009, Strauss-Kahn said to reporters after a meeting with Gulf Arab finance ministers and central bank governors.
AkshayM
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by AkshayM »

tanking of market cap and stock price chart from nyt...

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008 ... aphic.html
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Tamang »

Image
Vikramaditya
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Vikramaditya »

SwamyG wrote:
archan wrote:Guru log,
I do not understand this finance and bijnis stuff...being a bone headed science wallah. Can someone explain in aam abdul's terms what it means to me? all of my tiny savings of my stay in unkil's land is in an ING savings a/c. Koi khatra hai? should i look into moving part of it elsewhere?
If you are planning to return to desh, then consider taking a small portion of money from savings and start your investments in India; based on your priorities and schedule. It is not bad to keep money in both the currencies. If you have more than 100K sitting in ING Savings, then split the amount and ensure you have less 100K in a savings account. FDIC insurance is for 100K onlee.
If its a joint a/c with another person say spouse or kid then the total amount insured by FDIC directly is $200K

http://www.fdic.gov/deposit/deposits/in ... html#joint
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Manu »

Washington Mutual ("WAMU") is also for Sale. The good news, such as it is, is that they have appointed GS as their Sell-Side Banker. Maybe the advisory fees will save GS. :rotfl:

I think Wamu will merge with Wachovia. Who else is out there?

Makes you think about the old fashioned Uncles and Auntys in India. They only view Gold and Real Estate as the 'real' Hedge, all else is maya. Maybe they are right.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Manu wrote:Makes you think about the old fashioned Uncles and Auntys in India. They only view Gold and Real Estate as the 'real' Hedge, all else is maya. Maybe they are right.
It also makes one think about times, during marriages when vessels - silver, gold and ithyadi were exchanged. Some of these were new, but some of them were old. In cases of jewelery, mothers tend to recreate newer jewelery from existing ones. They just transformed shape/design and changed hands. The cash in dowry was not hugely significant.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

Image
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Very interesting times. Lots of "I told you so". Lots of changes in waiting?

Abroad, Bailout Is Seen as a Detour From Capitalism
PARIS — Is the United States no longer the global beacon of unfettered, free-market capitalism?

In extending a last-minute $85 billion lifeline to A.I.G., the troubled insurer, Washington has not only turned away from decades of rhetoric about the virtues of the free market and the dangers of government intervention, it has also likely undercut future American efforts to promote such policies abroad.

“I fear the government has passed the point of no return,” said Ron Chernow, a leading American financial historian. “We have the irony of a free-market administration doing things that the most liberal Democratic administration would never have been doing in its wildest dreams.”

While they acknowledge the shock of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the bailout package for A.I.G. on top of earlier government support for Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac has stunned even European policy makers accustomed to government intervention in the economy.

“For opponents of free markets in Europe and elsewhere, this is a wonderful opportunity to invoke the American example,” said Mario Monti, the former antitrust chief at the European Commission. “They will say that even the standard-bearer of the market economy, the United States negates its fundamental principles in its behavior.”

Mr. Monti noted that past financial crises in Asia, Russia, and Mexico brought government to the fore, “but this is the first time it’s in the heart of capitalism, which is enormously more damaging in terms of the credibility of the market economy.”

In France, where the government has long supported the creation of national champions and worked actively to protect select companies from the threat of foreign takeover, politicians were quick to point out the paradox of what is essentially the nationalization of the largest American insurance company.

“Today the actions of American policy makers illustrate the need for economic patriotism,” said Bernard Carayon, a lawmaker of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s center-right governing party, UMP. “I congratulate them.”

For the “evangelists of the market this is a painful lesson,” he added.

We’re entering “an era where we have much more regulation and where the public and the private sector will mix much more.”

In Asia, the Washington-led bailouts have stirred bitter memories of the very different approach the United States government and the International Monetary Fund pushed during the economic crises there a decade ago.

When the I.M.F. pledged $20 billion to help South Korea survive the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, one of the conditions it imposed was that the Korean government allow ailing banks and other companies to collapse rather than bail them out, recalls Yung Chul Park, a professor of economics at Korea University in Seoul who was deeply involved in the negotiations with the I.M.F.

While Mr. Park says the current crisis is different — it’s global rather than restricted to one region like Asia — “Washington is following a different script this time.”

“I understand why they do it,” he added. “But they’ve lost credibility to some extent in pushing for opening up overseas markets to foreign competition and liberalizing economies.”

The ramifications of the rescue of A.I.G. will be felt for years within the United States, too, not just abroad.

That’s because it was a very different kind of company than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which enjoyed government sponsorship as mortgage finance providers, or Bear Stearns, which was regulated by the federal government.

“This was an insurance company that wasn’t federally regulated,” said Gary Gensler, who served as a top official in the Treasury Department during the Clinton administration. Nor did A.I.G. have access to Federal Reserve funds or deposit insurance, like a commercial bank.

“We’re in new territory,” Mr. Gensler added. “This is a paradigm shift.”

A.I.G. is also in a different league both by virtue of the breadth of its businesses and its extensive overseas operations, especially in Asia.

What’s more, it fell into something of a regulatory gap under the current rules.

While the company, based in New York, is better known for selling conventional products like insurance policies and annuities overseen by state regulators in the United States, it is also deeply involved in the risky, opaque market for derivatives and other complicated financial instruments, which operates largely outside any regulation.

Along with the threat to the plain-vanilla insurance policies held by millions of ordinary consumers, it was the looming threat posed by these arcane financial instruments that prompted Washington to act and bailout A.I.G.

Mr. Chernow, who has written extensively about the efforts of J. P. Morgan to steady the economy in 1907 before the creation of the Federal Reserve, echoed Mr. Gensler’s conclusion.

“It’s pure crisis management,” Mr. Chernow said. “It’s the Treasury and the Federal Reserve lurching from crisis to crisis without a clear statement on how financial failures will be handled in the future. They’re afraid to articulate such a policy. The safety net they are spreading seems to widen every day with no end in sight.”
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by svinayak »

China's sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp. (CIC), has lost so much on US investments in the past 18 months – notably in Morgan Stanley and Blackstone – that "it has been bitten several times and is shy," says Andy Xie, an independent financial analyst in Shanghai.

Shares of Blackstone, a private equity fund, and Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, have fallen more than 50 percent since Beijing bought in to them.

"It would be too politically sensitive to buy [more] assets that do not perform well," agrees Paul Cavey, a Beijing-based analyst with Australia's Macquarie Bank.

Chinese officials are also unlikely to allow a Chinese bank to buy a US institution outright, since running such a complex company would be too technically challenging for inexperienced Chinese bankers, says Mr. Cavey. "It is not impossible that the CIC or a big Chinese bank might buy a stake in a struggling US institution."

Other Asian and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds will probably be equally wary, says Mr. Xie. "The Wall Street guys have a credibility problem."
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Nandu »

3 month T-Bills are now trading at a yield of 0.01% http://finance.yahoo.com/bonds/composite_bond_rates

Gold jumped 10% in one day from $780 an ounce to $860 an ounce. http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Both these signals presage there is more bad news coming and it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

Where in the world is Dick C. When Natinal security is under attack by Financial CEOs?
Nandu
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Nandu »

Will be interesting to see if S&P has the backbone to touch USA's AAA sovereign rating.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUKN1752966920080917
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by putnanja »

svinayak
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Post by svinayak »

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1221568 ... b_page_one
* SEPTEMBER 17, 2008

Lending Among Banks Freezes
By CARRICK MOLLENKAMP, MARK WHITEHOUSE and NEIL SHAH


Banks abruptly stopped lending to each other or charged exorbitantly high rates Tuesday, threatening to spread the troubles of American International Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to a broad range of financial institutions and the global economy.

The breakdown came despite efforts by central bankers to keep money flowing. Central banks in the U.S., Europe and Japan pumped tens of billions of dollars each into the banking system. The Federal Reserve, while declining to lower its benchmark interest rate at a regular meeting Tuesday, said it will "act as needed" to combat ills including tight credit and the still-declining housing market.

In one stark sign of waning confidence, the overnight London interbank offered rate, or Libor, a benchmark reflecting the rates at which banks lend to one another, more than doubled, in its sharpest spike on record. Longer-term Libor rates also rose sharply. If sustained, that move will push up payments on billions of dollars in mortgages and corporate loans that are linked to Libor.

The tensions reverberated around the world on a day of sharp gyrations in stock and bond markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was down more than 100 points during the day, ended up 141.51, or 1.3%, to 11059.02 as investors welcomed news that the Fed was weighing a plan to support AIG.

Individual financial shares were all over the map, as investors tried to sort out who will survive the market turmoil. Commercial banks, seen as more stable because they can tap consumer deposits for funding, were up sharply. Bank of America Corp. rose 11.3% and Wachovia Corp. was up 9%. The investment bank Morgan Stanley was down 10.8%, prompting it to rush out its better-than-expected financial results a day early.

Prices of government bonds, a traditional safe-haven investment, rose sharply. It was "a nausea-inducing rollercoaster ride," wrote Benjamin Cheng, a strategist at UBS.

From Russia to Switzerland, officials were at times forced to suspend trading as stock prices plunged. Both major Russian stock exchanges halted trading for an hour late in the day, the first time they had both done so since Russia's 1998 financial crisis.

As rumors spread about their funding, some banks took the rare step of denying problems. Switzerland's UBS AG, refuting an analyst report on its potential exposure to Lehman-related losses and countering a 17% drop in its stock price, said its total loss exposure to Lehman wouldn't exceed a manageable $300 million. Belgian-Dutch bank Fortis, which saw its shares fall more than 10%, denied in a statement that it was seeking a capital injection. In the U.K., HBOS PLC, a big mortgage lender that depends heavily on market funding, said it had a strong capital position as its share price fell 22%.
Demand Exceeding Supply

The European Central Bank provided €70 billion ($99 billion) in one-day loans, more than double its Monday injection of €30 billion. The Bank of England offered £20 billion ($35.66 billion) in extra two-day loans, atop Monday's £5 billion in three-day loans. In recent days, demand for such central-bank funding has far exceeded supply.

Before the Fed's midafternoon rate decision, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York injected $50 billion into the banking system, and added an additional $20 billion later Tuesday.

Normally banks can rely on each other for cash to meet daily needs. The interest rates are usually low relative to other market rates, reflecting confidence that fellow financial institutions will pay each other back. But that confidence broke down in August 2007, and has never been fully restored.

The central banks' efforts Tuesday were just the latest in a long string of emergency maneuvers since the crunch began. Those efforts have failed to get money circulating normally, putting central bankers in the uncomfortable position of propping up banks for periods longer than they had ever intended.

Tuesday's turmoil reflects the impact a failure of AIG could have on banks and financial markets. The U.S. insurer is a major player in the $62 trillion credit-default-swap market, where banks and others buy and sell insurance against defaults on corporate bonds. AIG has sold insurance on hundreds of billions of dollars in debt to European banks alone. That insurance could prove worthless in the event of an AIG bankruptcy filing, precipitating billions of dollars in fresh losses for banks.

Because the insurance is sold in the form of private contracts, not even policy makers know exactly how much there is or who will end up taking the losses. "These things are invisible to everybody," says Howard Simons, a bond strategist at Bianco Research in Chicago.

Even more, the downfall of the once rock-solid insurer has underscored to financial institutions that no one is free of risk.

The worries about AIG are making the outcome markets fear more likely. For one, they have caused the cost of default insurance to rise sharply. That forces sellers of insurance, which include AIG, to put up added cash as collateral to guarantee they'll be able to pay in the event of a default. The added demand for cash exacerbates the money-market strains.
The Libor Soars

The depth of the money-market problems became clear at lunchtime in London, when the British Bankers' Association published Tuesday's Libor borrowing costs. Every day, 16 banks report what it would cost them to borrow at certain maturities and currencies. Overnight dollar Libor soared to 6.4375% from 3.10625%, the largest jump on record. Three-month dollar Libor rose to 2.876% from 2.816%. Big global banks such as Bank of America, Credit Suisse Group, UBS, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and others reported overnight borrowing costs of 6% or higher in dollars, compared with 3% just a day earlier.

In another sign of policy makers' concerns about banks' access to cash, the Bank of England is expected this week to propose a new permanent emergency-financing facility for troubled banks. The program will likely be designed to allow the central bank to help banks secretly, making short-term loans against collateral that would include hard-to-sell assets such as mortgage securities, say traders and analysts.
Private Borrowing Pool

The banking industry is also working to create a separate, private borrowing pool, though details are still being ironed out. Under the guidance of the New York Fed, 10 of the world's biggest banks have committed to chip in $7 billion each to the fund, dubbed the Primary Dealer Liquidity Facility. Any of the member banks can borrow up to one-third of the total fund.

The structure seems intended largely as a confidence-building measure to assure jittery investors that major banks won't run out of cash. Banks won't actually fund the facility unless one of its 10 members needs to borrow from it.

On Monday, representatives of the banks and law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell, which the New York Fed hired to provide advice, met to discuss issues such as what kind of assets banks can pledge as collateral when they borrow from the facility. The banks are also drawing up a list of specific circumstances in which banks can tap the fund, such as if they have lost access to the commercial-paper market, where banks and other companies issue short-term IOUs.

More meetings are expected to take place in coming days. One of the outstanding goals is to enlist at least a few more banks to join the facility, which was originally intended to have about $100 billion coming from 15 different lenders.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

Where in the world is Dick C. When Natinal security is under attack by Financial CEOs?

sleeping inside a bunker at the greenbrier estate or playing golf at the dumbarton oaks.
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

NYT - I wonder if charles schwab and wells fargo are also cash rich enough to pickup pieces
from the table ?

Morgan Stanley Considers Merger With Wachovia

By BEN WHITE and ANDREW ROSS SORKIN
Published: September 17, 2008

As the wrenching shifts within the American financial industry shook world markets on Wednesday, Morgan Stanley, one of the two major Wall Street banks left standing, was considering a possible merger with the Wachovia Corporation or another bank, according to people briefed on the discussions.

A tie-up with a bank would restore Morgan Stanley to its structure during the Depression, when the firm split from the Morgan banking empire. It would also leave Goldman Sachs, long the envy of Wall Street, as the only major American investment bank left.

As Morgan Stanley’s share price came under renewed assault on Wednesday, the firm’s chief executive, John J. Mack, received a telephone call from Wachovia expressing interest in the Wall Street bank. Other banks have also expressed interest in Morgan Stanley, which is considering various options. The talks with Wachovia are preliminary and no deal may emerge.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Sanjay M »

There was some speculation in other internet forums that a collapse of the US dollar could accelerate the formation of a North American Union as the only way to remedy the economic situation:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Union

While such an idea seems quite radical, it's a possibility worth considering, given the extreme situation emerging.

(And you know what else? I'm sure these Atlanticist/Wilsonian types would be the first to make a beeline for this idea)
Paul
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Paul »

WellsFargo is considering acquisitions as well.

Lakshman Achtutanan of ECRi was on CNN this morning. He said this crisis actually started in 2006 with the first waves of sub prime crisis hitting shore that year. This has snowballed into a credit crunch and is now hitting wall street....and is now morphing into a recession.

BTW...he was spot on when 8 months ago he predicted that this was no shallow crisis.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Philip »

Global credit system suffers cardiac arrest on US crash
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 11:59pm BST 17/09/2008

The global credit system almost grinds to a halt as yields on US Treasury bills reach zero for the first time since the Great Depression, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The global credit system came close to total seizure yesterday. Key parts of the derivatives market shut down and a panic flight to safety depressed the yield on three-month US Treasury bills to almost zero for the first since the Great Depression in 1934.

The closely-watched TED-spread measuring stress in the interbanking lending market rocketed to 238 as the share prices of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wachovia, and Bank of America all went into a tailspin yesterday.

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The collapse in investor confidence is a harsh verdict on the judgment of the US Federal Reserve, which chose to ignore market pleas for a rate cut to halt what amounts to a modern-era run on the banking system. Almost none of the current Fed governors have market experience. Most are academic theorists.

Worldwide panic sends markets plunging further
AIG bailout fails to end panic on Wall Street
Rivals line up for AIG subsidiaries after bailout
The Fed had hoped that a targeted $85bn (£47bn) bail-out for insurance giant AIG - on onerous terms - would be enough to stabilize the banks after the weekend failure of Lehman Brothers. Instead it set off a cardiac arrest at the heart of the credit system.

Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG, said the Fed and the Treasury were doing too little, too late, to stave off disaster. Interest rates need to be cut immediately and dramatically, while Washington must prepare for a wholesale takeover of large parts of the lending system along the lines of the Scandinavian bank rescues in the early 1990s.

"Unless there is a very rapid change of mind, depression - with all its horrors and consequences - will be inevitable. The judgment that letting Lehmans go would not create systemic risk depended, if it was ever going to be anything other than ludicrous, on very rapid action to shore up the financial system. Instead, Hank Paulson seems to be adding to the risk in the system," he said.

"We fear that a virtual nationalisation of the financial system will now be necessary," he said.

America's Reserve Primary Fund suspended withdrawals after shareholders pulled out almost $40bn in two days on news of its heavy exposure to Lehmans' debt. The move came as the fallout from Lehmans' collapse spread worldwide. Japan's Nikkei wire said Japanese banks would suffer almost $2bn of losses on Lehmans' bond defaults.

Russia suspended trading the Moscow bourse after the Micex index crashed 24pc in two days. Officials promised $44bn to support the banking system.

As Washington bails out one financial institution after another, investors have begun to doubt the long-term credit-worthiness of the US itself.

The cost of insuring against default on 10-year US Treasuries jumped to an all-time high of 30 basis points yesterday, as measured by the credit default swaps (CDS) on the derivatives markets. Germany is at 13, and France is 20.

"This is historically significant because we have never seen anything like it before," Daniel Pfaender, sovereign credit strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort.

"What we don't know yet is whether this a liquidity issue or whether it reflects the credibility of the US financial system."

The Treasury's rescue of the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has added $5.3 trillion in liabilities to the US government. It almost doubles the national debt (under IMF definitions), at least on paper.

The Fed has now added a further $85bn in debt for AIG. While the sums are manageable so far, what worries investors is the likely avalanche of insolvencies yet to come.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation FDIC has already exhausted half its capital cleaning up after the collapse of IndyMac. It may need half a trillion dollars of fresh money to cope with the 120-odd lenders on its sick list. Professor Nouriel Roubini from New York University warns that several hundred banks will go under before this hurricane has exhausted its fury.

John Chambers, head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's, said America's AAA grade is safe for now. The Fannie/Freddie bail-out is not comparable to ordinary state debt. It is backed by housing collateral, mostly based on prime mortgages.

"In the worst case scenario, the losses from Fannie and Freddie will be 2.5pc of GDP. This is not to belittle the unprecedented actions of the last two weeks.

"For the US to lose its AAA we would have to see the sort of financial distress that occurred in the Nordic countries. It could get that bad. There's no God-given gift of a AAA rating. The US has to earn it like everyone else," he said.

Charles Dumas from Lombard Street Research said America's dependency on foreign money would carry a high price. "The ultimate test will be whether this seriously jeopardizes the reserve currency role of the US dollar. China finances the US government. So as long as the Chinese are willing to accept an annual loss of 15pc on their holdings of US bonds in real yuan terms, this can go on, but the decision lies in Beijing. What is clear is that it will take the US decades to pay this off," he said.

Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas, says the US debt scare is vastly overblown. America's total government debt is 48pc of GDP on IMF measures, compared to 57pc for Germany, 94pc for Japan and 108pc for Italy.

"The debt levels are nothing compared to Europe, even after Fannie and Freddie. America still has great leeway," he said.

"We think the next phase of this crisis is going to be a repatriation story as American investors bring their money back from frontier markets. The US broker dealers were 60 times leveraged and now they need to take assets back onto dollar balance sheets."

Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, said Washington's serial bail-outs are the inevitable result of the credit bubble of preceding years. "This was all baked in the cake long ago. What we have seen so far is just a dress rehearsal for the deep recession that is coming. America is going to be losing 500,000 jobs a months. That is when we will see interest rates go to zero. The deficit will be covered with printed money as it was in Japan. The endgame will be helicopters full of cash dropped by Ben Bernanke," he said.

Comments
The injections of massive amounts of Dollars into the global financial system today is just a sticking plaster. The whole thing is terminally sick. It will be allowed to go down when the 'elite' have got their plans ready for its replacement - a global cashless society with a microchipped population. Wonder why they've been pushing to phase out cheques and cash and bring in smart cards? Wonder why Maddy Mcann story got so much exposure leading to people calling for microchipping children? Children and the infirm first, everyone else next.
Posted by J.J.Rambo on September 18, 2008 12:35 PM

Opening the floodgates to Chinese imports was the killer mistake. Not China's fault, mind you. Short-termism, not understanding the fundamentals - that you must work / produce and cannot live on credit was our downfall. Dependence on Russian energy is another error. The property boom has been crazy - just silly speculation. We ALL haven't lived inside our means - though we have clearly been badly led... Such a shame.
Posted by Peter Jackson on September 18, 2008 12:25 PM

"Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, said Washington's serial bail-outs are the inevitable result of the credit bubble of preceding years. "This was all baked in the cake long ago. What we have seen so far is just a dress rehearsal for the deep recession that is coming. America is going to be losing 500,000 jobs a months. That is when we will see interest rates go to zero. The deficit will be covered with printed money as it was in Japan. The endgame will be helicopters full of cash dropped by Ben Bernanke," he said."

Ambrose, I have agreed with you about the severe risk of a deflationary crash all the way since this crisis blew up in the middle of last year.

But you were right on one thing where I was wrong. I said they would have to slash to 0% before the financial system blew up, whereas you generally wrote that whilst they should and might act soon enough, they might not, due to their backward looking inflation fixation. You said, “These policy errors are made”. You were right.

(But I am right that the problem was caused by the excessively high real interest rates of the late eighties and nineties, and that the Greenspan very low rates of the early noughties were just an unavoidable consequence.)

Can you believe that the central banks are still waiting, even though commodity prices crashed soon enough for them to get out of it without losing face, by saying that inflation was clearly going to fall. It is as if they want it to happen. The conspiracy theorists are having a field day.

But, congratulations. It is easy for me, or any other member of the public, to blog that we agree with your analysis, but another thing entirely for a professional economics journalist to stick his neck out when all of his professional peers are scoffing and saying that all will be well. You should get a medal, but of course you won’t. There are no medals for shining lights where the Establishment don’t want them shone.

Posted by David Goldsby on September 18, 2008 7:12 AM
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Sorry the Global Economy is getting so "US Economy". But what to do, life is like that onlee.

In 2004, SEC gave exemptions to five banks on the net capital rules. It allowed the banks to move out of the then existing debt-capital ration of 12-1 to 30-1 (even 40 to 1). The five were:
* Goldman Sachs
* Lehman
* Merrill
* Bear Stearns

* Morgan Stanley

3 of them are down.

Some technical info.....all from Big Picture
The so-called net capital rule was created in 1975 to allow the SEC to oversee broker-dealers, or companies that trade securities for customers as well as their own accounts. It requires that firms value all of their tradable assets at market prices, and then it applies a haircut, or a discount, to account for the assets' market risk. So equities, for example, have a haircut of 15%, while a 30-year Treasury bill, because it is less risky, has a 6% haircut.

The net capital rule also requires that broker dealers limit their debt-to-net capital ratio to 12-to-1, although they must issue an early warning if they begin approaching this limit, and are forced to stop trading if they exceed it, so broker dealers often keep their debt-to-net capital ratios much lower.
John Snow
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

Where is Dr. Tim this is his area of specialization. Please come back and share your wisdom.
SwamyG
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Some more 101 stuff for inquisitive minds:
How We Got Here: It's Housing, Stupid

Excerpt:
The Problem of Falling Home Prices

But because of the depth of the housing problems, it may take a long time before real estate prices head higher again. Here's why.

Home prices, while sharply off from the 2006 peaks, are still high in comparison to long-term gains in income, rents or overall prices, suggesting that they still have a way to fall, according to experts.

The reason housing is wreaking havoc even on insurers like AIG and big investment banks, who do not make mortgage loans,{Cause 1:} is that during the boom, trillions of dollars of mortgages were packaged together into securities that promised to pay investors with the proceeds of those loan payments.

Those securities paid better rates than other types of assets during the boom years. {Cause 2:}So many investors from around the globe poured as much money as they could into those securities.

{Cause 3:}Faced with this demand, lenders starting making more loans to riskier borrowers, including people who might not be able to afford their mortgage payments in the future and even many with no proof of income.

When prices were rising, this wasn't a problem. The risk of loan foreclosure or default was limited because many homeowners were able to sell their house for more than they owed and make a profit.

But once prices topped out and began falling, {Consequence 1:}loan defaults and foreclosures started shooting higher as homeowners found it more difficult to sell their house. {Consequence 2:}This created problems not just for subprime borrowers but even for those with good credit and income.

{Consequence 3:}When foreclosures rose, the value of the various types of securities tied to mortgages started to fall, {Consequence 4:}causing huge losses up and down Wall Street. {Consequence 5:}It also made banks less eager to extend credit because of the risks involved.

A Downward Spiral

{Consequence 6:}This credit crunch in of itself slowed the economy, leading to job losses and more defaults, feeding a downward spiral that has been difficult to stop.

"A really bad situation -- a home price bubble bursting -- was made significantly worse when the recession began," said Achuthan. "Now we have to let this thing play out."

Some experts even argue that the steps being taken to rescue firms like AIG could make a recovery in housing and the broader economy more difficult, as financial firms and investors become more reluctant to lend money.
Note:The red highlight and addition is mine :-)
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