Indian Economy: News and Discussion (June 8 2008)

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 23 Sep 2008 21:43

I think its bakwas article, childish zero-sum game doesn't work in global economy.

vina · Post by **vina** » 23 Sep 2008 22:19

.. Buy out Fannie and Freddie indeed.

The guy who wrote the article has no idea absolutely of what he is talking about. If you buy out fannie and freddie, you take responsibility for all their liabilities as well.. If the Fed wants $700b and counting to buy out the mortgages that the rest of the banks have, Fannie and Freddie will have orders of magnitude more , amounting to trillions of dollars.

And India's GDP is what at the latest count ?

.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Sep 2008 22:26

Vina, Read the article again. He doesn't say to buy those out but to look out for Indian interests. And while at it you might want to meet up with him a fellow BRF member in B'Lore.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 23 Sep 2008 22:52

Balance of power shifts in global finance industry - Tokyo banks buy into Wall Street

vina · Post by **vina** » 23 Sep 2008 22:52

Ramana, other than the suggestion that India buy some of the distressed assets which I think would have been a disaster and a total loss like what the Sovereign Wealth Funds of cash rich gulf sheikdoms and China and Singapore suffered, (there is the problem with information asymmetry, the sellers had all knowledge ,while we would have no idea what we were buying and we would be robbed blind) ( I was forwarded the letter that Richard Fuld supposedly wrote to Warren Buffet imploring for a bailout, a very interesting read, which Buffet of course didnt bite..coz if he did , Buffet wouldnt be what he is today would he and after all Buffet had done the resuce act with Salomon back in the early 90s and made tons of money , and what makes you think you can do better where Buffet dare not tread) .

I think fundamentally ,this West must decline for India to rise , thesis is totally misplaced, flawed and plainly doesnt make sense given the historical experience.

India GDP was the high number it was because back in the pre industrial days, India and China as large agrarian economies were the biggest games in the world. However, both countries missed the industrial revolution (for whatever reason) and when the West industrialized obviously the share of global GDP crashed.

Point is look at the period after WWII, when the international trading system came into place and America reached it's zenith. There was unprecedented wealth created around the world. Japan and Europe were reconstructed from rubbles with American capital, SE Asia and South Korea emerged , China joined the world economic system and all of them benefited. India was late in breaking the self imposed isolation and if we had opened up when the chinese did in teh late 70s and early 80s, we too could have reaped a lot of that growth. Unprecedented no of poor have been dragged out of poverty and in countries like Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea etc have joined the first world.

The West doesnt need to decline for us to grow. Anyways, the long term growth rates of developed economies converge to around 2% long term on the average (check out America's growth rate over the past 200 yrs) and with our base effect we can get there in 50 years or so if we get our act together. It is never a zero sum game.We need the capital , skills and technology that the west and every one has to offer and be a part of the club to grow. We need partners, not a bunch of basket cases like Bangladesh Pakistan etc to trade with. What if India had been surrounded by first world countries like Switzerland is. India's internatinonal trade would be orders of magnitude more than what it is now and we would be richer as well.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Sep 2008 23:13

Agree Vina. What RVaidya says is to seize the moment and not be a subservient cog in the world economy. Rest is same as you in his previous articles. He is an old time BRF member and at IIM.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 23 Sep 2008 23:13

vina wrote:
Point is look at the period after WWII, when the international trading system came into place and America reached it's zenith. There was unprecedented wealth created around the world. Japan and Europe were reconstructed from rubbles with American capital, SE Asia and South Korea emerged , China joined the world economic system and all of them benefited. India was late in breaking the self imposed isolation and if we had opened up when the chinese did in teh late 70s and early 80s, we too could have reaped a lot of that growth. Unprecedented no of poor have been dragged out of poverty and in countries like Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea etc have joined the first world.

This is true but this is the not the point of argument.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 23 Sep 2008 23:17

India's influence can't rise by financial destruction of west; it would have a net negative impact at minimum on India. You become influential and wealthy in a thriving well functioning world not in the one that is going through turmoil and destruction.

Although you can feel bigger if some one else becomes smaller

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 23 Sep 2008 23:23

The West doesnt need to decline for us to grow.

Its ability to influence policies of governments around the world to suit its interests needs to decline. Any event that diverts these energies should be welcome.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 24 Sep 2008 00:44

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/CEO_ ... 518772.cms

"This should serve as a warning for the managements. It is my appeal to the managements that the workers should be dealt with compassion," Union Labour Minister Oscar Fernandes told reporters at a press conference.

"There are disparities in the wages of permanent employees and contract workers. The workers should not be pushed so hard that they resort to whatever that had happened in Noida,” he said.

Some one got murdered and the Minister backs the murderer's version of truth. A Labour minister saying all this stuff is idiotic and reminds one of Musharraf and his "root causes" explanation for terror. This does not bode good for Indian businesses who wish to attract the best talent from around the world.

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 24 Sep 2008 01:52

Unbelievable. Even if this minister dude believes his own words, the guy is a tactless baboon.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 24 Sep 2008 02:01

Regardless, the NOIDA Police have arrested 136 people per the news reports. The Union Minister is condoning mob murder and thats despicable.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 24 Sep 2008 02:08

Sorry for the one liner but: May the said minister meets the same fate and he statements be etched on his grave.

vina · Post by **vina** » 24 Sep 2008 10:36

Ah.. Looks like the Tatas will walk out of Singur. I fervently hope that Yeddyurappa swings it for Dharwad. North Karnataka desperately needs a crash industrialization and Karnataka and that region need alternate growth magnets to the southern part of the state.

West Bengal atleast can go back to "romantic pastoralism" and wanking off on "creating true revolution" and debating profound things like "post modernism" or whatever and all the "athales" can go on and on.. While we cherry pick the best Bengali talent that West Bengal has in abundance.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 24 Sep 2008 12:22

vina wrote:Ah.. Looks like the Tatas will walk out of Singur. I fervently hope that Yeddyurappa swings it for Dharwad. North Karnataka desperately needs a crash industrialization and Karnataka and that region need alternate growth magnets to the southern part of the state.

West Bengal atleast can go back to "romantic pastoralism" and wanking off on "creating true revolution" and debating profound things like "post modernism" or whatever and all the "athales" can go on and on.. While we cherry pick the best Bengali talent that West Bengal has in abundance.

The inside news is that Gujrat will get the project.
Some new area and I am not able to identify

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 24 Sep 2008 12:23

ramana wrote:Regardless, the NOIDA Police have arrested 136 people per the news reports. The Union Minister is condoning mob murder and thats despicable.

I have seen this person since childhood

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Sep 2008 12:52

IBNLIVE:

New Delhi: Tata Motors is scripting the last chapter of its long-running battle in West Bengal. The company has begun its pullout from the Nano plant in Singur.

The official announcement on the pullout is expected within the week.

West Bengal government sources told CNN-IBN that Tata Motors have given up on the project. According to sources, the Tatas started moving equipment and plant parts from the site to an undisclosed location 10 days ago. Vendors have also removed their equipment.

Sources say that both the state government as well as Tata Motors feel that the project cannot take off in Singur, given the strong opposition from Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress.

The pullout is expected to take some time, but sources say that around 1,000 cars will roll out from the Tata Motors Pantnagar plant in Uttarakhand by mid-October.

Meanwhile, Karnataka, Maharasthra and Haryana are now the frontrunners to anchor the mother plant.

Reacting to Tata’s reported pullout, Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal said, “If this happens then this is going to be a huge loss for the West Bengal government in terms of employment opportunities.”

On Tuesday, two security guards – SN Sarkar and Ajit Kumar – were attacked inside the Nano plant in Singur, inspite of police presence.

A mob attacked these guards with iron rods and sickles. While Ajit suffered severe internal injuries in his head, Sarkar's wounds were patched up at the local healthcare centre.

There has been no work at the troubled plant – planned to build the world's cheapest car – since local farmers backed by the Opposition Trinamool Congress laid siege to it on August 24.

satya · Post by **satya** » 24 Sep 2008 13:52

Tatas are quite good in reading tea leaves on political trends in India . They have never been wrong and they are always on main power centers unlike a few other industrial houses . Good for India ,it sounds a slow but sure death knell to commies .

munna · Post by **munna** » 24 Sep 2008 13:58

^^Commies in WB having their own Marriott moment

. When the self created frankenstein goes out of hand and comes back to bite the very hand that fed it, it makes for delicious irony.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 24 Sep 2008 14:02

Atleast the nitwit apologized for his thoughtless remark.

Oscar Fernandes apologises for justifying CEO's murder
24 Sep 2008, 1340 hrs IST,AGENCIES

NEW DELHI: Labour Minister Oscar Fernandes has apologised for his remarks on the murder of the CEO of an Italy-based company in Greater Noida.

The labour minister had blamed management for the CEO’s murder by dismissed employees of the company.

Graziano, in a statement in Italy, said it was appalled at the incident.

TV channel Times Now spoke to a senior official of the Italian company Graziano in India, who said they were shocked by the minister's insensitivity and has demanded an apology. ( Watch )

Ramesh Jain, Director of Graziano India said, "It is a very unfortunate comment especially said in context of our company. The question should be open for all the industry associations and they should go ahead and ask for an apology from him. You have to now take a decision whether it is worth continuing in the location we are in. I am sure anyone coming in now, who have to invest in this country, especially in certain states where such industrial relations is there.

On Wednesday, Indian business groups reacted with shock to the government's comments that ‘simmering discontent among the workers" was the reason why workers allegedly beat to death the CEO of the company that had sacked them.

Former employees of the car-parts maker Graziano Transmissioni attacked chief executive Lalit Kishore Chaudhary at the firm's offices near New Delhi, in Greater Noida, when discussions over a long-running labour dispute turned violent, police said.

Chaudhary was hit on the head with either a stick or an iron rod and was declared dead on arrival at hospital, they said.

Union Labour Minister Oscar Fernandes declined to criticise the attack, saying it "should serve as a warning for management".

"It is my appeal to the management that the workers should be dealt with compassion," Oscar Fernandes told reporters at a press conference.

"There are disparities in the wages of permanent employees and contract workers. The workers should not be pushed so hard that they resort to whatever happened in Noida," he said

The workforce is "unable to express its simmering discontent over the management policies," leading to strained ties between them and the management, he said while expressing his condolences to members of the bereaved family.

Media reports said workers were dismissed after they demanded pay rises and allegedly ransacked the firm's offices in Greater Noida.

"I can't believe someone in the government is condoning something like this," Rajeev Chandrasekhar, president of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, told reporters.

"An innocent man has died. I am frankly flabbergasted. I am shocked."

The Confederation of Indian Industry said there was "nothing in the world that can justify lynching of any person and no dispute can be settled by murdering an adversary".

The groups said the killing would harm India's international business image.

Graziano, in a statement in Italy, said it was appalled at the incident.

TV channel Times Now spoke to a senior official of the Italian company Graziano in India, who said they were shocked by the minister's insensitivity and has demanded an apology. ( Watch )

Ramesh Jain, Director of Graziano India said, "It is a very unfortunate comment especially said in context of our company. The question should be open for all the industry associations and they should go ahead and ask for an apology from him. You have to now take a decision whether it is worth continuing in the location we are in. I am sure anyone coming in now, who have to invest in this country, especially in certain states where such industrial relations is there.

More than 130 people have been detained and are facing charges ranging from rioting to murder.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 24 Sep 2008 19:09

We make fun of commies but how different this senseless idiot is from those schmucks. So murder/lynching is ok as long as it is justifiable.
What a piece of stinking gutter this guy is.

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 24 Sep 2008 22:26

Acharya wrote:
vina wrote:Ah.. Looks like the Tatas will walk out of Singur. I fervently hope that Yeddyurappa swings it for Dharwad. North Karnataka desperately needs a crash industrialization and Karnataka and that region need alternate growth magnets to the southern part of the state.

West Bengal atleast can go back to "romantic pastoralism" and wanking off on "creating true revolution" and debating profound things like "post modernism" or whatever and all the "athales" can go on and on.. While we cherry pick the best Bengali talent that West Bengal has in abundance.
The inside news is that Gujrat will get the project.
Some new area and I am not able to identify

Interesting Inside news !! Probably possible, I know that TATA top management is in Gujarat and they are looking at site in Mundra (Kutch) near their power plant and negotiating with Adani port about the export potential using their port. I think they have demanded 1000 acres and kutch being a barren land the govt. will be more than happy to give in. But I guess Karnataka is the strongest contender at the moment given high number of engineering graduates available every year as well as a very well established automotive industry and Haryana too is putting up red carpet. Every state is lobbying and Gujarat is simply one of them.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 24 Sep 2008 22:47

Yes , It is near Adani port.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 24 Sep 2008 22:51

Maybe, TATAs would have a NANO plant in each zone, so they may have not given up on Singur completely. Waiting for the dust to settle there while the NANO starts rolling out of North, South, West zones...

With the estimated 300,000 cars per year from Singur that I remember reading early this year, the number is too low to serve the whole country's need.

paramu · Post by **paramu** » 25 Sep 2008 00:26

It could be a startegy between left and CongI too.

By TATA pulling out from Singur, Mamata-di will see the end of her political career in WB.

Once dust settles TATA can go back to WB.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 25 Sep 2008 01:33

IIRC, TATA Motors had planned to set up "assembling plants" for Nano in different parts of the country.

TATA's are talking to Adani for setting up a dedicated terminal for coal handling at the Mundra port to import coal from its mines in Indonesia and Mozambique for the 4,000 mw ultra mega power plant.

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 25 Sep 2008 02:29

Mundra on radar for plant relocation.

http://www.business-standard.com/india/ ... ono=335058

Tata Motors, which suspended work at the Nano plant in West Bengal's Singur in view of continued confrontation at the site early this month, has held talks with Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi over relocating the facility to the state.

In a closed-door meeting held at Modi's official residence on Saturday afternoon, a team of Tata Motors officials led by managing director Ravi Kant discussed setting up the project in Gujarat.

After Tata Motors officially announced the suspension of construction and commissioning of work at the Nano plant at Singur on September 2, several states, including Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, invited the auto-maker to set up plant for the world's cheapest car.

Top Gujarat government officials as well as the chief minister’s office ensured that the Saturday's meeting remained a closely- guarded affair.

However, sources close to the development told Business Standard that the meeting lasted for over 30 minutes, where Tata Motors officials evinced interest in Mundra as one of the probable locations for relocating the plant.

"Tata Motors is exploring various locations, one of them is Gujarat. The group is looking at Mundra in the Kutch region as one of the locations," said a source.

Tata Motors is looking for about 1,000 acres to relocate the facility, which the government is willing to support, the source said.

The company has in the past held talks with diversified business entity Adani Group, which operates the Mundra port, including the possibility of Ro-Ro (roll on and roll off) ships coming to the port, said the sources. Tata Power also has its 4000 MW ultra mega power project (UMPP) at Mundra, and being close to port the Nano project can have the advantage of exports also, sources added.

I thought they were exploiting the mundra for exporting Nano !! I guess media has messed it up.

For a long time, the Gujarat government has been wooing Tata Motors to set up a car manufacturing facility in the state, even before it selected Singur in West Bengal for the Nano project. Gujarat has an advantage as far as land acquisition by the government is concerned.

"So far not a single project wherein the government has acquired land on behalf of the company has evoked any protest from the farmers or land-owners," said a senior government official.

Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Sunday said it would be a setback to industrialisation if the Tatas leave Singur.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 25 Sep 2008 05:10

Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Sunday said it would be a setback to industrialisation if the Tatas leave Singur.

Nonsense, think of all that land where one can set up small charcoal fired foundries to forge hammers and sickles. It's a blessing in disguise, I say.

vina · Post by **vina** » 25 Sep 2008 05:43

sanjaykumar wrote:Meanwhile, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Sunday said it would be a setback to industrialisation if the Tatas leave Singur.

Nonsense, think of all that land where one can set up small charcoal fired foundries to forge hammers and sickles. It's a blessing in disguise, I say.

Small backyard foundries and steel making furnaces ?. Why that is exactly what China did in it's "great leap forward" under Mao and resulted in mass starvation.. Ah.. Some one should propose that to Buddhadeb who in pursuit of "industrialization" is pushing his own "Great Leap Forward".. Some one please tell him that such backyard stuff is the way forward, along with stiff "targets" for production. Why even the more infallible than the Pope , Mao Tze Dong himself drove that thing in China, all the ideologues including Mr and Ms Karat will line up behind you and you can kill many birds with one stone..

.

Pss..t.. If you are a smart young educated person in West Bengal, cut and run right now. That place , like Beggardesh next door is a basket case. Yeah, it is a good place to visit and maybe even grow up in , but not to live and work in.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 25 Sep 2008 08:04

Wonder what amit-dada has to say. Really sad that WB will soon catch up with Bihar. But with Nitish doing a good job, Bihar will soon overtake WB.

This will put more pressure on Metros and other south Indian cities with the exodus of talent from WB. How does WB fare on the education front ?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Sep 2008 08:14

like all north indian states there is a crippling shortage of higher education
because they missed the boat on pvt colleges starting 1980s and the
rich in the north do not tend to start institutions.

so a state with the population of a european country has only few big engg
colleges for instance like iit-kh, jadavpur, shibpur, nit-durgapur, howrah?

outflux of the youngsters to usual suspects like delhi, pune,
all cities and colleges in south. to an extent thats true of Delhi also- lots of
delhi people study in southern and MH colleges.

Nayak · Post by **Nayak** » 25 Sep 2008 10:12

Tough time for North Indian job-seekers

http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/stor ... UTQ==&SEO=

Mohammed Shariff | ENS
25 Sep 2008 09:34:00 AM IST

BANGALORE: Amid investigations by Anti-Terrorist Cell (ATC) and special squads to track down the culprits of the recent bomb blasts in Ahmedabad and Delhi, job aspirants from North India, in general, and Kashmir, in particular, are facing problems in finding jobs with MNCs and other companies.

Companies have introduced stringent screening tests for aspirants, and there have been cases of rejection.

IT and ITES companies, especially the BPOs, already had a stringent screening process, after the fake certificate scam.

NASSCOM has prepared a special employee directory to avoid cases of cheating.

Besides this, companies have decided to keep a more vigilant eye on the job aspirants coming from a specific community or from Kashmir.

Arshad, a management graduate from Srinagar, had to face a tough time when he applied for a job in Bangalore. For three months, he awaited a call, but after getting no response, he had to move to Hyderabad in search of a job. Later, when he contacted one of the recruitment consultancies, he was told that companies have a stringent recruitment policy, especially for people from Kashmir.

Sources from IBM, HR department, said: ``This has become necessary as the government has asked every company to keep a strict vigil on the candidates from Kashmir and other North Indian states. Companies have their own methods of scrutinising the background of the candidates.

We are following this since the last three years.'' Sources from Hewlett & Packard(HP) said that there are some cases where candidates from a specific background have to undergo stringent scrutiny. In this case, most of them don’t get the jobs as the company is not ready to take chances.

Otherwise, IT and ITES sectors are unbiased in this regard. However, S Kottappuram, CEO, iCaliberator said: “This happens only in exceptional cases. As of now, IT companies are not hiring actively as the market is down. So, some people have to clear stringent HR process.”

Well, I know that after 9/11 happened, the most valuable company did not send followers of religion of pi$$ for visa interviews as it ended up with 100 % rejection rate.

vina · Post by **vina** » 25 Sep 2008 11:15

Yes, there is a problem with hiring people of a "particular community". Dont ask me how, but I know of a case where a pretty senior executive interviewed a set of candidates and decided on a muslim woman as the personal secretary. However, the hiring could not happen because the security guys came back and said that they cannot allow it because the personal secretary at such levels would have access to the senior and the top management's (CEO, management and board level) calenders , schedules and contacts and raised "concerns" .

I can imagine this happening at all levels, right from entry level stuff to "clients" raising concerns and anything even remotely sensitive in terms of security and access (like even network admins and engineers etc). It is so basically and terribly unfair to the vast number of folks who share nothing other than their religion with "bad apples" and the companies in their "hygiene/security" fetish and the fears and risk aversion and in trying to safeguard themselves from any "incidents" do tremendous collateral damage to these young folks.

This of course feed right into the "victimhood" hypochondiracs and just feeds into the vortex of "I am more victimized than anyone else" race to the bottom..and not to mention that it keeps away the very people who need to be on the right side to fight against the lunatic fringe.

I dont make a judgement call on the behavior of the corporates , because the consequences of anything untoward happening would be disastrous indeed and will cause huge damage and anyone will be risk averse.

The solution could be for the normal folks in the "particular" community to turn against the bad apples, isolate them and snuff them out.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Sep 2008 12:28

atleast in my previous and current dens I dont see it among those inside the fence. some of
'sensitive' jobs like IT admins are even farmed out to 3rd parties. whether there's a filter at
the input gate dont know - its never going to be in writing anywhere just based on unspoken
understandings and hints. people were using sleeping rooms as 5xnamaz rooms in the day but
the admin did not obstruct that.

Tanaji · Post by **Tanaji** » 25 Sep 2008 17:39

This current tendency of corporates is a recipe for disaster. It will end up in:

1. The members of said community that are already alleging discrimination promptly go "aha! told you so!" and the mullahs exhort the momin to say, why go to the kufr's college when you are not going to get an education anyway, join my madarssah

2. Demands from the said community and their acolytes like Bhatt, Roy et al to demand reservation in private sector for themselves.

All in all, counter productive in the long run.

mayurav · Post by **mayurav** » 25 Sep 2008 20:41

A good solution for the people in the "other community" would be to convert out of it. After all their forefathers/mothers converted into the "other community" for economic and social benefits.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Sep 2008 23:27

Folks, please keep the debate to the subject of the Indian economy. There's been sufficient latitude provided to cover matters like the Tata/Singur issue and Muslim employment concerns, but I'd rather this thread wasn't derailed entirely in the process. Thanks.

SK Mody · Post by **SK Mody** » 26 Sep 2008 10:16

Acharya wrote: I have seen this person since childhood

Acharya, could you please check page 52 (almost at the top) of Nukkad thread?

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 26 Sep 2008 13:56

HDFC's Deepak Parikh speak

To Deepak Parekh - How can India ensure it never suffers a similar crisis?

Parekh - "Regulators are ahead of innovators here. In the last couple of years, they have taken some unpopular decisions, which have now been proved right. Indian FIs are not allowed to leverage their assets 30-40 times over, as was happening in the west. Some $7 billion has been pulled out by FIIs in the last five-and-a-half months, but 41 new insurance firms have opened here, which have an appetite for equity."

The senior statesmen of India's financial sector also had some pithy advice to offer.
"Borrow from a position of strength, when you don't need the money. When you need it, you won't get it. Keep away from the danger of greed. In good times and bad times, what works is prudent lending. Invest in instruments you understand, not exotic stuff. Above all, borrow less."

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 27 Sep 2008 03:09

How to weather the global financial storm

Experts suggest shunning real estate instruments.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mr Arun Kejriwal of KRIS wondered whether “retail” investor was still walking the Street.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jayanta Mallick

Kolkata, Sept. 26

A sense of sinking has suddenly gripped the local market as the Wall Street financial market crisis increasingly appeared an all-encompassing bottomless pit. According to Mr Ramdeo Agarwal of Motilal Oswal, the search for a bottom is futile in this time of deep uncertainty.

Mr V.K. Sharma of Anagram Securities felt some 2.5 lakh crore worth of investments by FIIs was a potential time bomb for Dalal Street. “It’s time for a long vigil where there is no room for false confidence if we witness occasional bounce-backs,” he said.

What does a retail investor do in this situation? Mr Arun Kejriwal of KRIS wondered whether “retail” investor was still walking the Street.

“Cash is King”

Mr Amitabh Chackraborty of Religare was blunt in advising a complete exit for the small investors, who have let themselves more than a year’s horizon. “De-leverage, get out of equities because their value may erode to half in the next two quarters and dollar may plunge to the extent of losing the status of the being the reserve currency for the globe; get into gold or gold ETF, liquid funds or fixed maturity plans, which do not have exposure in real estate debentures.”

“Don’t panic”

Mr Agarwal, however, felt that though no resolution was in sight for the global financial market crisis, there was no need to panic. He also felt that investors, who are still leveraged, should extinguish the leveraged position altogether and get out for another 6 to 8 months.

“Long-term investors with 18 to 24 month horizon should stay put,” said Mr Gul Teckchandani.

He was of the opinion that staggered and systematic investment plans could be one option for the investors who want to enter or re-enter now. Buy at dips — for every five per cent fall, matching percentage of investible fund may be used.”

Mr Kejriwal and Mr Agarwal also suggested staggered SIP. Mr Agarwal, however, clarified: “Don’t look at the indices, go for deep value while building a portfolio step by step in moderate doses.”

Local fundamentals

Mr Kejriwal felt eventually, after two quarters, local fundamentals, however, would assert on the sentiment. He felt from mid next year, things would turn for the better.