India nuclear news and discussion

[enqyoob]

Thanks, Harbans, and thanks, Jai for the fun-reduction editing. Will try to keep my temper, though the occasional exercise of the foot is sometimes a forced necessity.

Gerard, what is your take on the needs for a deep-penetrator weapon? I guess in the old days the approach was to hit deep C^3 centers etc. with a saturation strike of 2 or 3 megaton bums on the theory that nothing would survive in the area. But now the US (and India) are faced with Sargodha-type installlations built into mountains, or Tora-Bora type complexes. There is no will or consensus to use MT weapons against those, but getting to them is deemed absolutely essential even in any limited war.

How do they plan on doing this with smaller weapons delivered by non-ballistic delivery systems? This IMO will drive the next round of test requirements, and I am 399% sure that the reason US balked at CTBT is because these things need testing. The US / GOAT WILL test these, if only to smoke out the Al Qaida and spoil the joy of the Iranian Mullahs by showing that they can be taken out any time, underground or not. Only question is when, and under what real/contrived "global emergency", whenever the devices are ready for testing.

If I were in the Indian establishment, I would be readying test articles to prepare for that tamasha, and see how I could join in the test program with a few of our own.

In the recent Bill, the thing that caught my attention is the nature of the "additional conditionalities" placed by the COTUS.

1. "Tell the NSG not to provide ENR". I already figured the $$$ motives behind this, it's arm-twisting to get Indian agreement on other things, which don't affect India negatively, IMO.

2. And this was the kicker: "In the event of an Indian test, the President must certify that no US-provided technology was used".

Now consider that carefully - what are they saying? If the mandate is: "In the event of an an Indian test, cut off all cooperation and shut down the reactors and demand to bring all the US toys home!" , then what the heck is the need for the POTUS to certify anything?

So what they are saying is: "In the event of an Indian test, the Administration is 399% certain to agree with the Indians that it was a necessary test, so u r NOT going to put any sanctions on India, and u r gonna let the Injuns get away with it again! U r rubbing the noses of our NPAs in the dirt!"

So they adopt the face-saving measure: "At least tell us that no US stuff was used in the test". Like the POTUS used to "certify" to COTUS every year in the 1980s and early 90s that Terrorist Pakistan had no nuclear weapons program.

IOW,

Tell me no secrets, tell me some lies
Give me no reasons, give me alibis
Tell me you love me and don't make me cry
Say anything but don't say goodbye
...
And don't it make mah brown eyes blueeeee!

This, more than anything else in Signing Statements or Letters from the State Department, tell me the attitude of the GOTUS towards the possibility that both US and India will be testing again b4 there is any CTBT.

[RajeshA]

Thank you Harbans Ji for your kind words.

Trying to read American PoV regarding Indian nuclear testing is challenging. It is not quite sure, whether America is against India's nuclear tests 400% or 399% onlee.

N-Deal still a killer by Shabori Ganguly: Daily Pioneer

Shabori Ganguly, who has earlier also been of the view, that India is making too many concessions, argues in her article, that the Senators like Lugar are 400% against any tests and have taken measures to dissuade India as much as possible.

But then they rejected the Amendments of Dorgan and Bingaman calling for cessation of the nuclear agreement if India tests, because such an explicit provision may not be palatable to India, even though the Hyde Act too has been more or less saying the same thing, and so have all legislators and State Dept. officials from Condoleeza Rice to Nick Burns.

That and 123 wording makes me think, it is 399% onlee.

I believe India has managed to ensure that the termination of 123 Agreement on grounds of Indian testing is not a legal obligation of GOTUS but rather it remains a call for the President to make. Considering even 10% of India's strategic relevance for USA in the next 10 years, no US President is going to call for termination.

[ShauryaT]

The W76 warhead far outnumbers any other weapon in the US arsenal. It is 100 kt. Its RRW replacement was supposed to be of similar yield. So the mainstay of the US arsenal is 100 kt.

True, in terms of actual number of warheads, but the total tonnage deployed or planned, from these two type of weapons the W76 and the W88, which is 475 KT, is similar.

The entire British arsenal is W76 based.

The US arsenal covers EU. So, the UK and French arsenals are redundant.

The yields of the last Chinese tests (their latest warheads) were 90kt.

True and they continue with their old weapons too but as usual with the Chinese a lot on their plans is very speculative.

The Russian Bulava SLBM will carry 100kt warheads.

The modern US one W87, is 300 KT.

The US and Russian 455 and 550 kt warheads are indeed modern but they are deployed in smaller numbers (in the case of the US) and primarily aimed at hardened targets - reflecting the counterforce strategy of both nations. Russia has a greater proportion of higher yield (550kt) compared to their SLBM force (>600 100kt warheads). Russia itself intends to expand their SSBN force.

The numbers for the W88, are 400+ warheads. Do not seem to be small in total tonnage. It is right up there and is the future main stay. Also, let us not forget the MIRV configurations can carry up to 12 of these on a single missile, limited by treaty to 8, making the total tonnage on the missile in the MT category.

The oft-repeated demands for deploying Indian megaton yield weapons is bizarre. I could understand a demonstration MT shot, part of a test series that included 100-200kt proof tests but the idea that India needs megaton weapons to deter China is absurd....

This is the class of warhead that India needs for the K15 and future naval Agni variant. Not obsolete megaton ones.

Some planners disagree. We need something to the north of 300 KT in MIRV configurations of about 4-6, against hardened targets and to beat missile defenses.

Also, there is strategic value to these weapons.

[RajeshA]

Freedom to hunt feels great!

Overseas uranium hunt intensifies by Jayanta Roy Chowdhry and R. Suryamurthy: Telegraph

New Delhi, Oct. 5: The government has gone into overdrive in helping Indian companies acquire stakes in overseas uranium mining entities, at a time when India has forged closer ties in nuclear energy with the US.

Indian mining firms, both state-owned and private, are being helped by Indian embassies abroad to identify and buy uranium mines.

An informal message has gone across that India needs to have uranium mines, and the government will guarantee purchase of the radioactive mineral by the Nuclear Power Corporation, which runs 17 reactors and is setting up five more.

Sources said Reliance Industries had entered into an agreement with Uranium Exploration Australia (UXA), though the country is still resisting the export of the mineral.

RIL Australia, a subsidiary of Reliance, has bought a 49 per cent interest in four of UXA’s exploration licences in the state of South Australia and four of UXA’s exploration licence applications in Northern Territory. The exploration programme, of which 49 per cent will be funded by Reliance, will cost about Australian $19.4 million.

Jindal Steel & Power has bought stakes in Canadian firms which mine uranium in Mongolia. The Jindals have purchased the Mongolian assets of Vancouver-based Bluerock Resources and Uranerz Energy for $2.6 million.

State-owned Oil India Limited plans to enter into a tie-up with Uranium Corporation of India Limited (UCIL) for mining in the country. The energy exploration firm has found uranium while searching for oil and gas.

Before these companies made their moves, little-known Taurian Resources had won a contract in Niger giving it exclusive rights over 3,000 sq km of the Sahara desert. The Arlit region, in the Sahara, is estimated to hold at least 30,000 tonnes.

India is also in talks with Gabon, Niger and Namibia for uranium supplies.

The deals would involve assured supplies, coupled with, in some cases, Indian companies picking up stakes in mines. India may also enter into civilian and military co- operation pacts with the African countries. Namibia holds about eight-to-nine per cent of global uranium resources.

State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has entered into an agreement with UCIL to buy uranium equity abroad and hunt for domestic resources.

Senior government officials said Indian companies were being encouraged to buy stakes in uranium mines to ensure continued fuel supply to the country.

Private companies are buying stakes as they are hopeful of the government allowing them in nuclear power generation.

According to the Planning Commission, the deal with the US will enable India to add 15,960MW to its capacity by 2017, taking total capacity to around 20,000MW.

Most plants are operating at half their capacity because of the unavailability of uranium. India plans to have 18 to 20 new nuclear power plants over the next 15 years.

At present, plants can be set up only by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India, and uranium mining done solely by UCIL.

Private entities such as the Tatas, Reliance Power, the Essar group, the Vedanta group and the GMR group are awaiting amendments in the Atomic Energy Act to make conditions favourable for private investment.
Top

[Gerard]

I am 399% sure that the reason US balked at CTBT is because these things need testing

The budget for RNEP (Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator) was cut in the 2005 US budget. The existing B61-11 is the only nuclear penetrator now available.

Either with a new RRW or rebuilt W76s and W87s, the US will be under pressure to test. They will be unsure about yield and reliability due to the design changes.

[ShauryaT]

I believe India has managed to ensure that the termination of 123 Agreement on grounds of Indian testing is not a legal obligation of GOTUS but rather it remains a call for the President to make. Considering even 10% of India's strategic relevance for USA in the next 10 years, no US President is going to call for termination.

The above presumes that the Security interests of the United States are heavily favored against action by the President, for the President is bound to uphold US law and US laws on the matter are CLEAR. It is a legal requirement.

[Gerard]

We need something to the north of 300 KT in MIRV configurations of about 4-6, against hardened targets and to beat missile defenses.

I agree that for hardened targets and premptive strikes against missile defense sites, >300kt would be ideal.
But is that Indian deterrent strategy? That is not credible minimum deterrent. That is not countervalue. This type of counterforce targeting would require far greater numbers of warheads.
Unless there is a massive increase in the Chinese arsenal, I don't see India going down this road.

IMHO the pressing need is for a deployed, survivable deterrent. Not bunker busters. How many railcar TELs have been built? How many Agni-1 and 2 regiments are deployed? When will we see the ATV at sea with its nukes? What about air-launched cruise missiles?

[rajrang]

rsingh and acharya,

Another reason for Japan's success is that Japan adopted capitalism while India chose socialism. With the possible exception of Sweden, most capitalist countries outperformed socialist countries economically - especially consumer goods etc. - during the post WWII period from about 1945 to the 1990s. Both China and later India are doing well economically because of capitalism, I believe. I think both of you have also alluded to other good reasons as well.

Again, there are intelligent people who support this deal and there are intelligent people who dread this deal. I doubt anyone can claim to have crystal ball on this. Only time will tell. I am personally uncomfortable with this deal.

[RajeshA]

Rice snub smacks of no confidence by Seema Guha: Daily News and Analysis

If India wanted Bush to sign agreement first, it should have asked Rice to delay her trip

NEW DELHI: India’s shoddy treatment of US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, the one person who has fought so hard to deliver the nuclear deal, is inexplicable. Though the US is tight-lipped about the fact that Rice wasted precious time and energy to be present in the capital for what turned out to be a non-event, they are furious and aghast at India’s behaviour.

While it is understood that India did not want to legalise the bilateral 123 Agreement by signing the deal before president George W Bush inked it into a law, and is waiting for the statement before making any commitments, what is confusing is why they waited till the last minute to tell Washington on what they had decided.

Rice was told about it only when she was about to board the flight to India. What stopped the government from explaining its position before her travel plans were made? India was strangely silent after the US senate vote. Officials privately explained that India did not comment because the vote was a domestic issue of the US.

President Bush is signing the bilateral agreement into a law on Wednesday and all New Delhi had to do was to make it clear that Rice should delay her trip to India by a few days. Instead, India went through the entire charade of the Saturday visit.

Indian government officials refused to comment on the issue, saying they had expected Bush to sign it soon after the senate approval and the process completed before the Rice air-dash to India.

The feeling in the US camp is one of major disappointment. They feel that president Bush, who has delivered on all his promises to India, is still not trusted by Indian government leaders, including prime minister Manmohan Singh.

Without the US push, the Nuclear Suppliers Group would never have allowed the Indian waiver. US ambassador David Mulford himself admitted he had never seen this kind of diplomatic effort by the US to get the exemption through for India.

Breaking protocol, Manmohan held a banquet for Rice to possibly soothe ruffled feathers. By all counts, this did not assuage the US official. One thing is clear, Washington will be careful not to go out on a limb for India. At least senior Bush administration officials realise how difficult it is to deal with India. Luckily for India, this administration is going out of office by the end of the year.

Rice became victim of Indian Babudom, which has now received international recognition after this incident.

Excuses: India was not quite aware of what comes after the Senate passes the Bill. How long would it take for the Congress to move the Bill to the White House? Would George Bush sign into Law immediately or will he wait? Would he change the tone of the Bill with some signing statements, as he promised Manmohan Singh during the latter's visit to Washington D.C., or not, and if yes, what would he include, and would that satisfy the Babus? Would it be sensible to sign 123 Agreement before the Process has officially finished in the USA? Indians were probably also not sure, whether they can simply tell Condi, that she is not welcome just now. There were many open questions, and one day was not enough to have these answered for a conclusive positive decision. But what was the hurry for Condi anyway? Her prize is not going away.

That said, one must say here, that if George W. Bush has been the heart behind this deal on the American side, Condoleeza Rice has been the brains and brawn behind the deal. The Lady has deserved the label, a Friend of India, and a place in history.

Disclaimer: Friend of India is not the same thing as Friend of Pakistan. The latter is a relationship with deep penetration. Indians onlee do Namaste from a distance.

[John Snow]

Rice snub is little too late....
The report says Bush went on limb to get the deal, give me a break, there is no free lucnh with AMerica its just business.
The number additions and insults India had put up with is nothing compared to what rice got to the occassion.

I can't get no satisfaction
I can't get no satisfaction
'cause i try and i try and i try and i try
I can't get no, i can't get no

When i'm drivin' in my car
And that man comes on the radio
He's tellin' me more and more
About some useless information
Supposed to fire my imagination
I can't get no, oh no no no
Hey hey hey, that's what i say

[RajeshA]

I believe India has managed to ensure that the termination of 123 Agreement on grounds of Indian testing is not a legal obligation of GOTUS but rather it remains a call for the President to make. Considering even 10% of India's strategic relevance for USA in the next 10 years, no US President is going to call for termination.

The above presumes that the Security interests of the United States are heavily favored against action by the President, for the President is bound to uphold US law and US laws on the matter are CLEAR. It is a legal requirement.

The US can stop deliveries of new equipment, materials and technology immediately. The 123 Agreement however requires that sufficient compensation be made for any materials and equipment for which the USA enforces its right of return. That is endless negotiation.

To be honest, it is still not quite clear to me, what exactly constitutes termination. If the US-based nuclear reactor suppliers assure fuel supply to India and source that supply from third countries, which are not bound by termination, would those supplies end as well. Would the nuclear reactors just stop working on that day? The nuclear plant operators and their fuel suppliers have their own agreements.

It is also not clear, whether after the termination of the deal, whether a new Bill will have to be passed by the US Congress to allow USA to do nuclear trade with India again, or could the President simply reactivate the Agreement again, in which case the termination would be more like suspension. Can the President suspend the 123 Agreement for one day, and call it fulfilling the requirements of termination?

US sourced reactors and material would be limited anyway, because of the constraints of this Law, so big deal!

What would be worrying, would be if the NSG would terminate the Waiver. However, that would mean big losses for Russia and France, and maybe Japan, Australia, Canada and many others. Would all of the NSG members fall in line. US influence over the NSG club would decrease with time, just as US power decreases. Secondly one should keep in mind, that the last time US moved the NSG Club, the main opponents of the US were the Pipsqueak. On the question of termination, the opponents could be the major powers. Not that easy!

[RajeshA]

Rice snub is little too late....
The report says Bush went on limb to get the deal, give me a break, there is no free lucnh with AMerica its just business.
The number additions and insults India had put up with is nothing compared to what rice got to the occassion.

One can't argue with that. My point was that, those insults were not necessarily from Condoleeza Rice. She did bat for the Deal.

[enqyoob]

Seema Guha, and IMO Daily Pioneer, are creating news instead of reporting it. I don't list Guha in the list of anti-Indian writers, but as an infantile sensationalist.

The COTUS hasn't sent the deal to the WHOTUS yet - they are understandably preoccupied because the banks are failing in the US and the entire market is one session away from total collapse. So that's what happened with the Rice schedule. Obviously Rice wasn't just going to India, or she would have postponed. So this Guha is a non-news. Imagining slights to the H&D, since all other has failed. Same deal as some postors here getting abusive because they've been shown up.

I don't see ANY reason why anyone would be "AGHAST" that India didn't sign an agreement that the US hasn't officially agreed to yet. Rice had no authority to sign, because the President hasn't signed the law allowing Rice to sign, so why would India sign?

News reporting in India is plumbing ever-greater depths.

Daily Pioneer's political bias is of course evident. No credibility on this issue whatsoever.

[RajeshA]

I don't see ANY reason why anyone would be "AGHAST" that India didn't sign an agreement that the US hasn't officially agreed to yet. Rice had no authority to sign, because the President hasn't signed the law allowing Rice to sign, so why would India sign?

Yes, that made me do khujli in my head also. If there is no Law in USA allowing 123 Agreement with India, how can a US official sign the 123 Agreement. So I don't understand all these reports claiming that US officials were claiming, that she still could have signed the Agreement.

Maybe the Indian Babus were being more loyal than the King, reminding Condoleeza Rice of her rights under the American Constitution!

[rajrang]

Rice snub is little too late....
The report says Bush went on limb to get the deal, give me a break, there is no free lucnh with AMerica its just business.
The number additions and insults India had put up with is nothing compared to what rice got to the occassion.

I can't get no satisfaction
I can't get no satisfaction
'cause i try and i try and i try and i try
I can't get no, i can't get no

When i'm drivin' in my car
And that man comes on the radio
He's tellin' me more and more
About some useless information
Supposed to fire my imagination
I can't get no, oh no no no
Hey hey hey, that's what i say

To add to that India had to put up with a pariah status for decades because of US led isolation of India. I suppose India should feel insulted for that. In addition India is being tied up in knots and asked for favors for partially undoing the pariah status, instead of being welcomed warmly with open arms. Is that also an insult?

[Arun_S]

Rice snub smacks of no confidence

Seema Guha
Monday, October 06, 2008 03:59 IST
NEW DELHI: India’s shoddy treatment of US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, the one person who has fought so hard to deliver the nuclear deal, is inexplicable. Though the US is tight-lipped about the fact that Rice wasted precious time and energy to be present in the capital for what turned out to be a non-event, they are furious and aghast at India’s behaviour.

While it is understood that India did not want to legalise the bilateral 123 Agreement by signing the deal before president George W Bush inked it into a law, and is waiting for the statement before making any commitments, what is confusing is why they waited till the last minute to tell Washington on what they had decided.

Rice was told about it only when she was about to board the flight to India. What stopped the government from explaining its position before her travel plans were made? India was strangely silent after the US senate vote. Officials privately explained that India did not comment because the vote was a domestic issue of the US.

President Bush is signing the bilateral agreement into a law on Wednesday and all New Delhi had to do was to make it clear that Rice should delay her trip to India by a few days. Instead, India went through the entire charade of the Saturday visit.

Indian government officials refused to comment on the issue, saying they had expected Bush to sign it soon after the senate approval and the process completed before the Rice air-dash to India.

The feeling in the US camp is one of major disappointment. They feel that president Bush, who has delivered on all his promises to India, is still not trusted by Indian government leaders, including prime minister Manmohan Singh. {Arun_S: Oh yes indeed because President Bush is so white and honorable to keep his part of the deal, it must be undoubtedly GoI / PM MMSingh who betrayed President Bush; so thinks DDM Seema Guha. Ms Seema Guha cant think of obvious issues that might have forced GoI hand and GoI feeling betrayed by honorable US president Bush's political commitments to Indian fuel supply.}

Without the US push, the Nuclear Suppliers Group would never have allowed the Indian waiver. US ambassador David Mulford himself admitted he had never seen this kind of diplomatic effort by the US to get the exemption through for India.

Breaking protocol, Manmohan held a banquet for Rice to possibly soothe ruffled feathers. By all counts, this did not assuage the US official. One thing is clear, Washington will be careful not to go out on a limb for India. {Arun_S: Ahhaa .. As if Indian people forgot that it was Indian PM MM Singh who went out on a limb for America, put his government on single agenda nuclear enterprise at the peril of losing his govt, losing blood brother comrad Karat, hiring suitcase full Amar Singh, buying MP's for votes, throwing promises to Indian parliament he did not intention to keep, not calling Parliament monsoon session to keep his government alive by a thread till 123 no-clear deal with Bush is passed, paid for with an arm and a leg, yada yada .. .. . . . yet DDM Ms. Seema Guha parrots and bemoans the length President GW Bush went on one leg to keep his part of the deal. To me that qualifies for the joke of the year award submission for consideration on 31 Dec 2008}

[RajeshA]

Seema Guha has probably good access to US Officials in the US Embassy in New Delhi.

Rice snub smacks of no confidence by Seema Guha: Daily News and Analysis

The feeling in the US camp is one of major disappointment. They feel that president Bush, who has delivered on all his promises to India, is still not trusted by Indian government leaders, including prime minister Manmohan Singh.

Without the US push, the Nuclear Suppliers Group would never have allowed the Indian waiver. US ambassador David Mulford himself admitted he had never seen this kind of diplomatic effort by the US to get the exemption through for India.

Breaking protocol, Manmohan held a banquet for Rice to possibly soothe ruffled feathers. By all counts, this did not assuage the US official. One thing is clear, Washington will be careful not to go out on a limb for India.

Suspicious relations by Seema Guha: Daily News and Analysis

Suspicion remains a given in India China relations. But what is perhaps more surprising is that the same is true of US and India. This was apparent during the crucial Vienna meet of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. US officials in New Delhi and Vienna were fuming at the leaks to the press by Indian officials. The stories about the US using the non-proliferation concerns of small nations to attach conditions on the waiver document infuriated the Americans.

Reports say that though the US embassy in Delhi did not raise the issue with India, diplomats were apparently hitting the roof in private. Decades of being on opposing sides of the Cold War divide has not disappeared. Americans find Atomic Energy chief Anil Kakodkar a difficult man to deal with. Kakodkar as a scientist had to face the brunt of US and international sanctions and is naturally suspicious of the US.

In the coming years, she will be a good barometer for the mood in the US Embassy. If it is bad, then the Indian Babus must be doing their homework.

PS. People if you want Amreekan Visa please contact Seema Guha: [email protected]

[sraj]

The feeling in the US camp is one of major disappointment. They feel that president Bush, who has delivered on all his promises to India, is still not trusted by Indian government leaders, including prime minister Manmohan Singh. {Arun_S: Oh yes indeed because President Bush is so white and honorable to keep his part of the deal, it must be undoubtedly GoI / PM MMSingh who betrayed President Bush; so thinks DDM Seema Guha. Ms Seema Guha cant think of obvious issues that might have forced GoI hand and GoI feeling betrayed by honorable US president Bush's political commitments to Indian fuel supply.}

Without the US push, the Nuclear Suppliers Group would never have allowed the Indian waiver. US ambassador David Mulford himself admitted he had never seen this kind of diplomatic effort by the US to get the exemption through for India.

Breaking protocol, Manmohan held a banquet for Rice to possibly soothe ruffled feathers. By all counts, this did not assuage the US official. One thing is clear, Washington will be careful not to go out on a limb for India. {Arun_S: Ahhaa .. As if Indian people forgot that it was Indian PM MM Singh who went out on a limb for America, put his government on single agenda nuclear enterprise at the peril of losing his govt, losing blood brother comrad Karat, hiring suitcase full Amar Singh, buying MP's for votes, throwing promises to Indian parliament he did not intention to keep, not calling Parliament monsoon session to keep his government alive by a thread till 123 no-clear deal with Bush is passed, paid for with an arm and a leg, yada yada .. .. . . . yet DDM Ms. Seema Guha parrots and bemoans the length President GW Bush went on one leg to keep his part of the deal. To me that qualifies for the joke of the year award submission for consideration on 31 Dec 2008}

Arun_S: good points!

If anyone in the US believes that Bush has delivered on "all his promises" (as per J18), then they obviously have a very tenuous grasp on reality. It is a miracle that this deal is still standing given how far it has slid from J18.

The Condi rush to Delhi was a a blatant power play on the part of the US: present a fait accompli to India, and then create a situation where India would be highly embarrassed if it tried to stand up for its rights.

GoI officials, and MMS, deserve congratulations for standing up to this power play.

With widely differing interpretations of key provisions in the 123, including all the last-minute stuff in the past week, at the very least India needs its Jekyll Act to be in place before signing.

The 123 agreement took 7 months to negotiate; heavens will not fall if it took a few more months to sign it.

[NRao]

I guess you assume that India is a innocent stupid cow and the US is cunning wolf waiting to devour India

No, none of that. I have worked, for years, with some who, today, are at the very, very top in the US political system. I am very painfully aware of how the system works. No assumptions. Both are equally stupid. I know it.

BTW, what MMS is doing today (Sending Rice back empty handed) he should have done with the Hyde Act. IMHO of course.

My point, if you re-read my post, is that Japan has managed to rise to near-superpower status within the same time that India has had since Independence. They did so, starting as a crushed, enslaved colony of the US, hated around the world. Today they are respected the world over.

If Japan can do it, so can India. One for one, Indians are no less smart or hard-working or determined than Japanese (at least, we can find enough Indians to match every Japanese one for one).

Indians should stop crabbing. Indians have done very, very well (Space and nuclear fields are examples) when they have worked together. When they have not (as in passing 123 in India) they have always cut their own feet. India is her own problem, solve India and India will do very, very well, thank you. More below

BTW, where is Japan? Yuk.

But my confidence is that the leaders of thought in both nations have firmly concluded that those interests are now close enough that we can collaborate. This is why I am completely sanguine about details such as "signing statements" and "Notes Verbales".

No problem with that if India was not in the equation. You see when these "leaders" leave (as in Bush) the whole thing could fall apart. Unless there is a policy based on national consensus, such deals are bound to be rickety and in perpetual negotiating mode. You can see it in the past few posts. It is to be expected, in fact it is predictable. Bet NSG will be a thorn for years to come.

One more problem: the respect you sought (above), will never be achieved because of the lack of consensus. Respect that earned by Indian Scicom. This is a problem that is created by MMS. He has compromised some of that respect that Indian Scicom earned.

And no, I do not share your pessimism about the waste storage or reprocessing issues.

Reprocessing is needed to support Indian FBRs - when they come across to the civilian side. Storage? It is a problem if there is no reprocessing. What are you going to do with the waste? There is nothing in these deals to send it back to the suppliers.

The Strategic program is strictly Indian. But with one HUGE advantage: now all domestic investment in mining, and all domestic-origin fuel, can be used as India pleases, for strategic programs. On this point, the NPAs are completely right - the world has decided to close its eyes to the fact that selling nuke fuel to India frees India to move the strategic program ahead at the desired pace.

Thanks to Bush? On a more serious note, I do not think testing is an issue.

At some point, Indian FBRs will come into the civilian sector, and kick off the 3rd stage towards complete self-sufficiency.

2050. IF in 2020 India gets to reprocess. Else all bets are off. Imported reactors are more than for electricity from now to 2050.

BUT, OTOH, I fully expect that advancements in ENR, reactor metallurgy, thermal system efficiencies (such as fast-neutron capture systems in fusion reactors), all will come in good time, WITHOUT any government ever admitting it openly. This is what open people-2-people contacts and intelligent R&D achieve. And again, this deal opens up that cooperation and lets the Indian nuclear community interact with the world as equals.

Perhaps. Hopefully. But that is not a respectful way of going about doing things.

Let us see about the last two sentences.

The door is open. No sense in standing on H&D waiting for an official red-carpet protocol welcome to walk through it.

Good. .

However, by the time the first reactor is ready for refueling, someone better think of what to do with the waste it generates. Or, by habit, perhaps we can kick that can further down the road, since that is what the leaders of the two nations agreed to.

These deals are not deals the way deals are meant to be. And, the group hurt most is the Indian Scicom - not from a technical PoV, but respect.

[bulsara]

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/libra ... irna01.htm

Tehran, Oct 5, IRNA

Iran-NPT-Saeedi

Deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Mohammad Saeedi on Sunday expressed concern about the US-India nuclear deal saying the deal has violated the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Talking to IRNA, he said the countries which are not members of the NPT cannot make use of the privileges of the treaty.

The method used by several nuclear states to transfer the technology to non-members of the NPT, will create new crises for the international community, he added.

According to the NPT, only signatories to the treaty can make use of the rights mentioned in the treaty, Saeedi noted.

Cooperation in the area of transfer of nuclear technology to the NPT non-members will endanger the treaty, he said, adding that although India is enjoying nuclear weapons it is not a signatory to the NPT treaty.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in India Saturday to showcase a historic bilateral nuclear deal, but last-minute hitches raised doubts that the pact would be signed on her trip.

A signing delay would be another bump in a three-year rollercoaster for an agreement aimed at lifting a ban on US-Indian civilian nuclear trade imposed after India's first nuclear test in 1974.

Both houses of the US Congress voted in favor of the landmark nuclear deal this week, but President George W. Bush has yet to sign it into law.

The deal offers India access to sophisticated US technology and cheap atomic energy in return for New Delhi allowing UN inspections of some of its civilian nuclear facilities.

xMilitary nuclear sites will remain closed to international inspections.

Critics say it undermines global efforts to curb the spread of nuclear weapons, because India has refused to sign the NPT.

i really dont think Iran has any f^&^ing rights to say anything about our nuclear deal.

[enqyoob]

Science, unfortunately, does not respect anyone, and in that is identical to the internet. Tomorrow some cocky young turd can come up with a theory that improves upon Einstein's stuff, and Einstein will be nobody. Of course in India they will still sing his praises.

Same with the nuclear scientific establishment. Except by moving into Administration and becoming a Baboo with the safari coat, one cannot ever have indefinite respect. It has to be earned every day by staying ahead of the mob.

So tomorrow there will be an army of brash young Indian nuclear scientists who will flaunt their "Modern" education swallowed from the text books, all trying to insult each other like the postors you see on this forum. The old Indian expert can gnash his teeth, or can join the crowd and learn from the young ones (and give the worst ones the occasional kick in the musharraf when they get too big for their britches).

[Gerard]

According to the NPT, only signatories to the treaty can make use of the rights mentioned in the treaty, Saeedi noted.

It says no such thing. Nothing in the NPT prohibits nuclear commerce with India or any other non-signatory.

[Gerard]

NDA will conduct N-test if needed: Yashwant

The NDA, if it comes to power at the Centre, will not hesitate to conduct a nuclear test if need arises, senior BJP leader Yashwant Sinha said.on Sunday

"If the NDA comes to power it will not hesitate to conduct a nuclear test if such a need arises," Sinha told reporters in Hyderabad.

Asked whether the BJP would re-negotiate the Indo-US nuclear deal if it came to power after the next Lok Sabha elections, the former External Affairs minister said it would certainly do so.

"We will certainly re-negotiate it after going through the deal left by the UPA Government.

"The Country is not going to get anything out of the nuclear deal. On the contrary, after its operationalisation, the Country loses the right to conduct nuclear tests," he said.

[ramana]

N^3 it has to be one two punch.

[rajrang]

The above presumes that the Security interests of the United States are heavily favored against action by the President, for the President is bound to uphold US law and US laws on the matter are CLEAR. It is a legal requirement.

What would be worrying, would be if the NSG would terminate the Waiver. However, that would mean big losses for Russia and France, and maybe Japan, Australia, Canada and many others. Would all of the NSG members fall in line. US influence over the NSG club would decrease with time, just as US power decreases. Secondly one should keep in mind, that the last time US moved the NSG Club, the main opponents of the US were the Pipsqueak. On the question of termination, the opponents could be the major powers. Not that easy!

Recently we saw the global clout of the US when the US forced the NSG to go along with the waiver for India. Why would any of the countries on the NSG become more powerful in future in order to take on the US? The major powers of W Europe and Russia will always be relatively weaker than the US in the forceable future, just as they are today. This is because they are also advanced countries already just like the US. On the other hand, China which is growing much faster, and also has the potential for growth because it is still backward relative to the US and 4 times the population, is likely to become more powerful than even the US. But, I believe that China will be the first to "punish" India should India test. Please clarify why the pipsqueaks of today will become major powers, powerful enough to oppose the US (together with China).

[rajrang]

Science, unfortunately, does not respect anyone, and in that is identical to the internet. Tomorrow some cocky young turd can come up with a theory that improves upon Einstein's stuff, and Einstein will be nobody. Of course in India they will still sing his praises.

Same with the nuclear scientific establishment. Except by moving into Administration and becoming a Baboo with the safari coat, one cannot ever have indefinite respect. It has to be earned every day by staying ahead of the mob.

So tomorrow there will be an army of brash young Indian nuclear scientists who will flaunt their "Modern" education swallowed from the text books, all trying to insult each other like the postors you see on this forum. The old Indian expert can gnash his teeth, or can join the crowd and learn from the young ones (and give the worst ones the occasional kick in the musharraf when they get too big for their britches).

I am afraid your own post is full of insults.

[ramana]

rsingh and acharya,

Another reason for Japan's success is that Japan adopted capitalism while India chose socialism. With the possible exception of Sweden, most capitalist countries outperformed socialist countries economically - especially consumer goods etc. - during the post WWII period from about 1945 to the 1990s. Both China and later India are doing well economically because of capitalism, I believe. I think both of you have also alluded to other good reasons as well.

Again, there are intelligent people who support this deal and there are intelligent people who dread this deal. I doubt anyone can claim to have crystal ball on this. Only time will tell. I am personally uncomfortable with this deal.

Rajrang, Re Japan please do look up Morita's "A Japan that can say no". its 53 pages word document.

[amit]

On the other hand, China which is growing much faster, and also has the potential for growth because it is still backward relative to the US and 4 times the population, is likely to become more powerful than even the US. But, I believe that China will be the first to "punish" India should India test. Please clarify why the pipsqueaks of today will become major powers, powerful enough to oppose the US (together with China).

Rajrang,

We all know that you worship the Middle Kingdom and you are mortally afraid of its "clout" now and in the future.

Apart from the fact that there are many others, (thankfully, IMO) who are not afraid of the Panda what exactly do you propose that India do so that China does not "punish" India? Send tributes to the God-kings of Capitalist Maoistan? Maybe give up Arunachal Pradesh and then even Kashmir to the Panda's head eunuch TSP?

Remember if China were "punish" India for a test in future it would do the same regardless of whether we signed this deal or not. It's another matter that what's more likely to happen is that the Panda will send conciliatory feelers if we did test. The Mainland Chinese are bullies but they fear and respect those who stand up to them.

Indeed, since you've been harping so much about the soon to be God-like powers of the Middle Kingdom, it's about time that you explain to unbelievers like me what good behavior must India do to make sure that the evil eye of the Panda is not cast on us?

Unless you do that and convince us, I'm afraid this constant harping on the might and power of the Panda sounds like a broken record. And for record you'd do a Pandapoker proud.

JMT

[amit]

BTW, what MMS is doing today (Sending Rice back empty handed) he should have done with the Hyde Act. IMHO of course.

NRao ji,

In politics and international relations timing is everything - more important than the action is exactly when the action is taken.

If MMS did what was done with Rice with the Hyde Act, then all the carefully orchestrated moves since 2005 could very well have collapsed. And I'm sure a person like you, who's misgiving about the deal is so balanced and nuanced (please note this is a genuine compliment and I've learnt a lot from your posts) would note that the NSG waiver is a net plus for India.

Right now the advantage, IMO, is with India and so it could afford to send back Rice empty handed. I have a feeling the US will be mad but it's respect for India will go up. And my bet is that Bush will put in the notings (for whatever its worth) on the 123 before signing it.

MMS has his team have played the game of poker with Uncle quite well IMHO.

[amit]

Rajrang, Re Japan please do look up Morita's "A Japan that can say no". its 53 pages word document.

Ramana ji,

Since you mention that famous book by Akio Morita and Shintaro Ishihara, there's a very interesting critque by Louis Leclerc written in 1994 here

People here love to talk disparagingly about the Japan model without ever considering what the Japanese really want.

Those of us who have visited Japan several times and have interacted with the Japanese will vouch for the fact that by and large they are very happy with the state of affairs. It is a society where stability is considered more important than anything else and the present arrangement assures stability. We could talk disparagingly about this arrangement but, hey, who are we to criticize if that's what the majority of Japanese want?

The point to note is that this stability allows the Japanese to wage war on a different front altogether. Just see this quote from the link above:

Japan is in a kind of economic war against us [Yen! p31]. Their objective
is for them to win and for us to lose. Through the use of cartels, price
fixing, government-corporate "anti-foreigner" tactics as well as adversarial
trade and predation strategies, Japan is greatly weakening much of America's
strategic industries, standard of living and national security. These actions
are also destroying the jobs of ordinary American people. While America is
being complacent with its industries, the greatest transfer of wealth in the
history of the world from one country to another is happening right now, from
the United States, to Japan [PBS Frontline "Losing the War with Japan"].

Those who study these types of topics know that economic wars can be even
more devastating to a country's long term future than conventional wars. Japan
is organized to fight, employs a world economic strategy and has a fundamental
plan. America's economic strategy is in disarray and there is no plan. As a
result, America is losing the economic war by default.

The analysis is a bit dated but my intention is not the present the facts as they are on the ground but rather the intent. The Japanese have by no means become doves overnight.

The point to note is that no two countries can be the same even if they follow exactly the same course. India will never be a Japan - a country with an aging society, with a small population which values stability over everything else. And no political leader can force a nation of 1.2 billion people to be something which a majority of its people don't want to be.

India will be India and not a Japanised India just as it will not be a Pandaised India or a Americanised India.

JMT and other disclaimers.

[amit]

NDA will conduct N-test if needed: Yashwant

Now let's see, Yashwant Sinha ji is saying:

"The Country is not going to get anything out of the nuclear deal. On the contrary, after its operationalisation, the Country loses the right to conduct nuclear tests," he said.

But before that he says:

"If the NDA comes to power it will not hesitate to conduct a nuclear test if such a need arises," Sinha told reporters in Hyderabad.

It's good to see that a senior BJP leader has started to put in conditionalities to the "we must test, we must test" chorus. [Note: If the fizzle theory is correct then the need certainly arises and the need has been there since 2003, na?]

Taking a different tack, I'm a bit curious how does "if such a need arises" differ from the MMS govt stand: "India is free to test and the US is free to react"?

And I'm looking forward to:

"We will certainly re-negotiate it after going through the deal left by the UPA Government.

For this reason alone I hope that the NDA comes back to power. Tab ayega maaza.

I just hope Yashwant ji does not disappoint. Afterall India, according to him, has lost the right to test but the BJP will test "if the need arises".

So logically re-negotiation should be on the top of the NDA agenda, just as signing this deal has been (to the detriment of other very pressing issues, sadly) on the top of the UPA agenda

We're in for interesting times.

[bala]

Thus far what I see from the deal wording is that the US has retained the right to react and India has retained the right to test. The later contradicts the following assertion "the Country loses the right to conduct nuclear tests".

The alternate scenario is if for a moment one assumes that there is no Hyde Act and everything is to the satisfaction of India. Then India elects say NDA and US elects Obama. NDA conducts a test, seeing a gaping need. The US, under Obama, despite the no Hyde Act, decides to clamp sanctions in consultation with NSG and China. Then, despite all the iron-clad treaties and signing of perfect documents, India is back to square one on the first clause: the US has the right to react.

[svinayak]

Thus far what I see from the deal wording is that the US has retained the right to react and India has retained the right to test. The later contradicts the following assertion "the Country loses the right to conduct nuclear tests".

The alternate scenario is if for a moment one assumes that there is no Hyde Act and everything is to the satisfaction of India. Then India elects say NDA and US elects Obama. NDA conducts a test, seeing a gaping need. The US under Obama despite the no Hyde Act, decides to clamp sanctions in consultation with NSG and China. Then despite all the treaties and signing of documents, India is back to square one on the first clause: the US has the right to react.

.
Precisely.

India will have to do what it has to do.

[bala]

^^^^^

So, what is the big deal of the opposition to the 123 signing. The NDA, furthermore, would by testing, break its own promise of a "moratorium on testing". Sounds very illogical.

[hnair]

Recently we saw the global clout of the US when the US forced the NSG to go along with the waiver for India. Why would any of the countries on the NSG become more powerful in future in order to take on the US? The major powers of W Europe and Russia will always be relatively weaker than the US in the forceable future, just as they are today. This is because they are also advanced countries already just like the US. On the other hand, China which is growing much faster, and also has the potential for growth because it is still backward relative to the US and 4 times the population, is likely to become more powerful than even the US. But, I believe that China will be the first to "punish" India should India test. Please clarify why the pipsqueaks of today will become major powers, powerful enough to oppose the US (together with China).

What the hell is wrong with people shivering at a panda wearing a dragon costume? Rip that costume(as the west does once a while) and all you see is a creature with eyes that are round with fear. All that fiercely (comical) costume play is for their own people (and people like you). This is like saying Jayalalitha gets scared of Karunanidhi's kong-sized cutouts or vice-versa.

Seriously, which other country can be bought down to its knees by the following:
- melamine
- bad fish
- a little girl who was judged as "not cute enough" by some shriveled old men
- toys with bad paint

We really need to go out and fight, instead of sitting inside a fortress and conjuring up bogey men. Don't make the task of containing the Indian nation any easier for them.

[amit]

Precisely.

India will have to do what it has to do.

Acharya ji,

Very well said. And that's why I think the BJP leaders need to give this "Oh, we will re-negotiate" hullabaloo a rest now. Every time a senior party functionary utters this same line, they tying themselves up to commitments which, due to realpolitik they may not be able to deliver on. Though totally different issue, that's the same problem that Mamata faced in Singur - she issued such grandiose statements that she simply did not have enough room to maneuver.

If the BJP feels the need to re-negotiate once they come to power, let them do so. By not harping on it ad nauseam now they leave themselves room for maneuver. Sad to say but BJP leaders have a habit to shoot off their mouths a bit too much.

JMT

[svinayak]

And that's why I think the BJP leaders need to give this "Oh, we will re-negotiate" hullabaloo a rest now.

Testing itself is part of the renegotiation.

[amit]

What the hell is wrong with people shivering at a panda wearing a dragon costume? Rip that costume(as the west does once a while) and all you see is a creature with eyes that are round with fear. All that fiercely (comical) costume play is for their own people (and people like you). This is like saying Jayalalitha gets scared of Karunanidhi's kong-sized cutouts or vice-versa.

Seriously, which other country can be bought down to its knees by the following:
- melamine
- bad fish
- a little girl who was judged as "not cute enough" by some shriveled old men
- toys with bad paint

We really need to go out and fight, instead of sitting inside a fortress and conjuring up bogey men. Don't make the task of containing the Indian nation any easier for them.

Boss very well said. One thing I admire in China is the level of psy-ops. Since the leadership ensures that the country talks in one voice and since the loss of face is such a feared thing for the ordinary Chinese who may oppose the govt in private but would not admit that to an outsider for fear of loss of face (and worse) they mange to show a aura of invincibility.

Heck if China had the power they would have nixed the NSG waiver, as it is they tried their best and it was shown that their best is still not enough.

I had written in a previous post that great power status does not come from only a big military and a trillion dollar forex reserve. Equally important is soft power and if you notice, the US soft power (everything from Hollywood to the US dollar) is more important as a influence generator globally than its considerable military strength.

I'm not saying that China cannot get there but to do so it has to go through cataclysmic changes within. Can the Communist Party survive that? Only time will tell. Meanwhile India's soft power is already well recognized and its military power and economic power will only grow.

China is a big boy who will grow bigger but India is not a pigmy now and more so will not be in the future.

[amit]

Testing itself is part of the renegotiation.

Sure but action speak more eloquently than words. It would be useful for the BJP leadership to remember that.

One point to note is that the BJP is remembered for two things. One is Pokharn II and for its "voluntary moratorium". The later has tied us up in knots, it's only fair that they untie the knots themselves.

JMT

[Sanku]

Hello Arun_S;

Now that the deed is done (almost); how about a summary (as per YOUR view) of the good the bad and the ugly. A summary is specially required since the first summary description of what the deal was supposed to be are no longer meaningfully applicable.

Whats the path forward now? (I have seen that you have answered this question in may pieces on the forum before) however a comprehensive piece would help some of us a lot.

Sanku