India nuclear news and discussion

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Arun_S
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Arun_S »

nkumar wrote:
sraj wrote:MMS Commitment to Lok Sabha on July 22, 2008 Has the above been done? Why take any steps on 123 signing before this has been done, and Parliament has had a chance to express its views on the new US riders in HR 7081 which explicitly contradict MMS statements in Parliament.
Boss, MMS and his coterie doesn't give two hoots about the Parliament. He has blatantly violated his assurances given to the Parliament. IMO, he and his likes are suffering from the same Nehruvian I-know-all, I-know-what-is-good-for-India type syndrome. The don't respect diversity of opinion and they consider Parliament as the problem and not as a solution to anything, as was visible during the recent vote-buying episode. MMS is a like a kid, who goes to a shop and throw all the tantrums to get his favorite toy without realizing the cost his father has to pay for the toy.
The father being Indian people and future Indian generations, as well as future Indian PM's.

As a BRfite mentioned sometime ago, MMS should be thanked from bringing India upto this point on nuclear matters, and let the next government (under a different PM) take India to the next higher level, and do whatever is necessary to further Indian interests on this matter.

IMHO restoring confidence in Indian parliamentary system should be the first priority of the next government.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by enqyoob »

So this is what is in the signing statement?
The legislation does not change the terms of the 123 Agreement as I submitted it to the Congress. That Agreement is consistent with the Atomic Energy Act and other elements of U.S. law. This legislation is important as it enables me to bring the 123 Agreement into force and to accept on behalf of the United States the obligations contained in the Agreement.

The Agreement grants India advance consent to reprocessing which will be brought into effect upon conclusion of arrangements and procedures for a dedicated reprocessing facility under IAEA safeguards.

In addition, the legislation does not change the fuel assurance commitments that the U.S. Government has made to the Government of India, as recorded in the 123 Agreement.

The passage of this legislation reflects the common view of my Administration and the Congress as to the value of nuclear cooperation and is in the interest of the United States and India.



So THAT is the understanding of the POTUS as recorded, and I don't see why India's understanding should be any less than those terms.

So - "fuel assurance" is there.
"Reprocessing" is very clearly there.

"Enrichment" is something I don't see, but also did not expect to see as I don't see its role in the CIVILIAN program.

What else is there? The statement does NOT say: "Rice WILL NOT try to prevent NSG countries from providing ENR" but it says: "Nothing is changed from what I (Dubya) presented to COTUS" IOW, anything tacked on by COTUS is rendered :P :P

Now will the anti-deal gurus please list what they find inadequate or "shifting the goal posts" here from what was in the J18?

I can start the list:

1. DOES NOT GUARANTEE INDIA THE RIGHT TO TEST ANYTIME WITH NO CONSEQUENCES. :(( :((

2. DOES NOT SAY "INDIA NEEDS 1MT BUMS!" :(( :(( ..

Please add on...
Prem
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Prem »

No deal is perfect and people can have different perspective.
Few see it as the begining of something and few see it as the end of something . Truth is somehwhere in between.
What we have now is Curd , either make Lassi out of it or churn it for butter and Desi ghee.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by VinodTK »

All in all it is a good deal for India and the USA. It allows India to address its power needs and get advanced technology in some areas. It allows the USA to achieve its strategic goal of putting India on a fast track to challenge China. It is a marriage of convenience and hope where both sides succeed.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by awagaman »

Narayangaru - You are doing this often so I thought I'll point out COTUS means Constitution of US, not Congress of the US.

Incidently, Bush statement does not mean "fuel assurance is there". He is confirming it is there in 123, but that is already know. Dispute is over nature of that assurance, whether political or legal. And his letter makes it clear. And 7081 makes it clear. So GOI has to also tell parliament that it is clear.

Also, enrichment is not issue becuase 123 allows enrichment of imported American uranium (which they have none of).

And reprocessing is "there" but we will know for sure after the arrangements and procedures are negotiated. That is time to take the call on whether we can afford to buy the US reactor.

So we should not be ecstatic or pessimastic. Neti Neti is best approach.
narayanan wrote:So this is what is in the signing statement?
The legislation does not change the terms of the 123 Agreement as I submitted it to the Congress. That Agreement is consistent with the Atomic Energy Act and other elements of U.S. law. This legislation is important as it enables me to bring the 123 Agreement into force and to accept on behalf of the United States the obligations contained in the Agreement.

The Agreement grants India advance consent to reprocessing which will be brought into effect upon conclusion of arrangements and procedures for a dedicated reprocessing facility under IAEA safeguards.

In addition, the legislation does not change the fuel assurance commitments that the U.S. Government has made to the Government of India, as recorded in the 123 Agreement.

The passage of this legislation reflects the common view of my Administration and the Congress as to the value of nuclear cooperation and is in the interest of the United States and India.



So THAT is the understanding of the POTUS as recorded, and I don't see why India's understanding should be any less than those terms.

So - "fuel assurance" is there.
"Reprocessing" is very clearly there.

"Enrichment" is something I don't see, but also did not expect to see as I don't see its role in the CIVILIAN program.

What else is there? The statement does NOT say: "Rice WILL NOT try to prevent NSG countries from providing ENR" but it says: "Nothing is changed from what I (Dubya) presented to COTUS" IOW, anything tacked on by COTUS is rendered :P :P

Now will the anti-deal gurus please list what they find inadequate or "shifting the goal posts" here from what was in the J18?

I can start the list:

1. DOES NOT GUARANTEE INDIA THE RIGHT TO TEST ANYTIME WITH NO CONSEQUENCES. :(( :((

2. DOES NOT SAY "INDIA NEEDS 1MT BUMS!" :(( :(( ..

Please add on...
Katare
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Katare »

Arun_S wrote:
fanne wrote:amit,
if you have something to contribute then di it!!!!!!!!
Why don't you go after Gurumurthy's arguments, why bring Swadeshi into it? Are you afraid that you cannot argues against his points?
rgds,
fanne
Ditto. I was going to respond to Amit with exactly the same reposte. "Are you afraid that you cannot argues against his points?" that one is going after his birth?
Fanne you saved me the effort. Thks.
Gurumurthy takes extremist positions on issues and his views can be questioned on the political/idiological grounds.

Would you two argue with the views of Arundhati Roy or Prafool Bidwai(as he is called at BRF) or numerous other jurnos who are laughed at and called numerous names @ BRF. Why have a separate standard for amit? As for as I can see he didn't call him names.
Katare
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Katare »

As for as Parliament is concern, it had its moment of truth even before IAEA deal so what are people complaining about? The man put his entire govt on the block for the issue and everybody had an opportunity to not only record their opinions, debate them but also vote on it.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Anujan »

nkumar wrote:
sraj wrote:MMS Commitment to Lok Sabha on July 22, 2008 Has the above been done? Why take any steps on 123 signing before this has been done, and Parliament has had a chance to express its views on the new US riders in HR 7081 which explicitly contradict MMS statements in Parliament.
Boss, MMS and his coterie doesn't give two hoots about the Parliament. He has blatantly violated his assurances given to the Parliament. IMO, he and his likes are suffering from the same Nehruvian I-know-all, I-know-what-is-good-for-India type syndrome. The don't respect diversity of opinion and they consider Parliament as the problem and not as a solution to anything, as was visible during the recent vote-buying episode. MMS is a like a kid, who goes to a shop and throw all the tantrums to get his favorite toy without realizing the cost his father has to pay for the toy.
Parliament ? What parliament ? Last I saw it was a marketplace to sell India's future to buy votes. If MMS had "consulted" the parliament, it would be akin to setting up a booth with a sign marked "sell India's future here, buy votes from muslims, dalits, commies, any other segment of the population that you want to divide from the country".

nkumar-saar and Arun_S-saar,
I am the part of the "test now" crowd. As any decent engineer will tell you, if your life depends on it, there is no such thing as being too careful. And we have to learn from history: our country has a history of getting invaded and overrun.

But, having said that, I have to admit that I am pretty impressed by MMS and his crew, for having deftly navigated the NPAs, Chinis, Commies, Other bigots like the aussies, to actually implement a deal that is half decent without any major red flags. You have to recognize that there are two extremes (a) Cap-rollback-eliminate and (b) I will test as much as I please and I want fuel assurances and this deal finds middle ground; some would even say that it leans towards (b).

With this as background, when India is fighting with one hand tied behind her back against chinis, NPAs and CREs, the commies come in, try to stall the deal by imposing conditions like "dont visit vienna", "if you visit vienna, you should wear a red shirt" or the most disingenuous among it all "Indian muslims will be bothered about the deal". Then came the trust vote mess. If bhaj-pha were truly nationalist and took a strategic view of this, they would have agreed to prop the gubmint in trust vote in exchange for candid consultations and true consensus. I wanted to see such leadership, but was sadly disappointed.

Who is there in the parliament to "take into confidence" ? and where is the assurance that the nuke issue will not just be another issue to garner cheap votes instead of a topic to discuss India's future and her aspirations ? Let me remind you that our parliament is studded with such luminiaries like Amar Singh, who wants a judicial enquiry into the delhi blast suspects detention.
Katare
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Katare »

I fully agree with above post. :evil:
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Arun_S »

Katare wrote:
Arun_S wrote: Ditto. I was going to respond to Amit with exactly the same reposte. "Are you afraid that you cannot argues against his points?" that one is going after his birth?
Fanne you saved me the effort. Thks.
Gurumurthy takes extremist positions on issues and his views can be questioned on the political/idiological grounds.

Would you two argue with the views of Arundhati Roy or Prafool Bidwai(as he is called at BRF) or numerous other jurnos who are laughed at and called numerous names @ BRF. Why have a separate standard for amit? As for as I can see he didn't call him names.
If I may ask what is the relevance of your outburst w.r.t my post? IMHO nothing. The simple point I raise is
"Are you afraid that you cannot argues against his points?" that one is going after his birth?
If one cant counter the argument with facts or logic and instead tries to pull down all views of a person based on the lineage of the person that simply shows the poster has ab-initio lost the debate.

Further down in debating scale is painting the person by comparing and putting in the same category as Pra-fool and Arundhati Roy.

The crux remains: "can one argues against his points?"

Worth reminding that BRF exists due to its member community, not due to my dictum.

Just my humble submission.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Katare »

Arun_S

There is no out brust only polite reminder that all kind of jurnos are discarded like this at BRF why have a separate standard for amit just because he is pro-deal and you obviously don't like it?

Articles are rated based on writer's history at BRF, if amit calls GM what he did, why don't you prove him wrong by showing how Gurumurthy is not a sawdeshi extremist.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by renukb »

I don't know why Indians celebrate this 1,2,3 deal... :cry: There is nothing better than self reliance...We should push to further develop Thorium technology...

1, 2, 3 to nuke impotency


S Gurumurthy First Published : 08 Oct 2008 04:19:00 AM ISTLast Updated : 08 Oct 2008 11:10:57 AM IST

Nuclear apartheid ended; energy deal energised; it is 123, now go. The Indian media celebrates the US-India nuclear deal, thus. In contrast, the US State Department, in its press note (October 3, 2008) adds one crucial step to operationalise the deal. And that is the President will make two certifications required under the law. They are: one, that terms of the USIndia deal are consistent with the obligations of the US under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ; two, that it is the policy of the US to work with the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) to further restrict transfer of equipment and technology related to uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent fuel; these certificates, read with the 123 agreement, turn a de-facto nuke potent India into nuke impotent India. As if to reaffirm this, :arrow: Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, told the media in Delhi on Saturday that the deal would be off if India did a Pokharan again. :arrow: A shaken Pranab Mukherjee has stepped back, and postponed the signing of the deal that was to coincidewith her visit to Delhi on October 4. :twisted:


To understand what the certifications by George Bush mean to India, here is the picture of the nuke world, as it stands today.

The world nuke weapons club consists of five nations that had tested nuke bombs before 1967 — starting with the US in 1945, then the USSR, afterwards the UK and finally France and China in 1964.

In 1968 the five-member nuke weapons club initiated a Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The NPT backdated the last date for entry into the nuke weapons club as 1.1.1967. The intent was that no other nation could become a nuke weapons power, and so the effect was that the nuke weapons club was to be eternally a five-member club.

All other nations were to be prevented from acquiring nuke weapons thereafter. These nuke impotent nations were required to sign the NPT admitting and declaring themselves as non-nuke states and give up their right to develop nuke weapons. The nuke weapons powers would assure them that they would not nuke the non-nuke weapons nations. The NPT was thus forced on most non-nuke nations by 1970.
But India defied; Pakistan and Israel too followed India. India finally dared the five-member club and tested its nuke at Pokharan in 1998, Pakistan followed. So, today you have India, Pakistan and also North Korea, as de-facto nuke weapons powers, but, the NPT records say they have no nukes! The NPT had unjustly divided the world nations into two nuclear castes; one, the nuke weapons states as the higher caste and two, non-nuke weapons states as the lower caste. The status of a nuke weapons state is not just a titular ornamentation like the Padma Awards. The nuke weapons states have set one rule for themselves and another for nuke impotent states. The nuke weapons states could keep on adding to their nuke weapon stockpile, test them and use atomic reactors for civil or military purpose without mandatory inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

IAEA, a UN agency to ensure that civil nuclear reactors are not misused for weaponising programmes, has no power over the reactors of the nuke weapons powers. The duty of the nuke weapons states under the NPT is actually their power to police and ensure that the others perpetually remain non-nuke weapons states, in the lower nuke caste. So, the civil nuclear reactors of nonnuke weapons states are subjected to a safeguards check by the IAEA to rule out stealthy use of the reactors to produce nuclear weapons.Now come to India. For thirty years upto 1998 India, even when it had no weapon, had refused to sign the NPT that would formally declare it nuke impotent.

That’s why it could develop and test the nuke bomb in 1998. But by signing the 123 and IAEA safeguards agreements now, India has formally declared itself as a nonnuke weapons state despite possessing the weapons.

Now have a look at the nuclear weapons stockpile of the nuke high caste nations. In 1968 when the NPT was signed the nonweapons states had 36,633 atomic bombs in stock. The nation-wise tally then was: the US 28,884, the USSR 9,399, the UK 310, France 4 and China 1. After 20 years of the nonproliferation regime, their stockpile of weapons did not fall, but, increased by 2/3 to 61,549 with the US having 23,077, the USSR 37,383, the UK 300, France 410, and China 400. So the five nuke weapons powers kept multiplying their arsenal but condemned others to nuclear impotency! This is precisely why India refused to sign the NPT.

Where does India stand today as a weapons state? In 2000, India’s estimated nuke stockpile was 85 to 90 bombs.With China’s 400 and Pakistan’s estimated 45-90, making a total of almost 500 bombs between them, the weapons ratio is almost 5:1 in their favour, and against India.

So India needs to rapidly add to its stockpile of nuke bombs to balance between itself and its two hostile neighbours. This is precisely what the second certificate of George Bush will stall. Stated in simple terms, India makes nuke bombs by reprocessing the fuel spent at its civil nuclear reactors into plutonium and using the plutonium for the bombs. The second Bush certificate ensures that all NSG nations deny this critical technology to India. The first Bush certificate enforces the non-weapons state norms of the NPT on India. The Bush certificates are diametrically opposite to what the Indian government has been assuring the Indian parliament and the public.

On top of it is the statement by Condoleezza Rice at Delhi warning against nuke test by India. Forget the US, the NSG’s approval is a permit. India has got it. Now it can shop anywhere, particularly in France and Russia, and get supplies; say the apologists of the deal. France and Russia can certainly give technology and reactors.

But what about uranium? The Indian government has repeatedly told Parliament that the deal ensures uninterrupted supply of uranium; a clear misrepresentation.

But, even if it were not, who has the uranium to give? Australia which has over a million tonnes of uranium has said ‘no’ to India. Russia has just 1,78,000 tonnes; US some 1,02,000 tonnes. France, UK and China have no uranium. India has about 78,000 tonnes, with a potential to double it. But how come then France, China, the UK, the USSR and the US, which have no or small uranium stocks, have been able to pile such huge nuke weapons, operate hundreds of reactors? Simple.

Being higher caste nuke nations, the NPT entitles them to get uranium from anywhere and use it for any purpose including for bombs, but denies it to non-weapons states.


This is the advantage a weapons state gets.

Before the 123 deal the nuke club did not accept India as a nuke weapons state. Under the 123 deal India has formally accepted that it is not a nuke weapons state. It has also damaged its capacity to remain a de-facto nuke weapon potent state.Will the UPA government rethink at least now?!

[email protected]

About the author:

S Gurumurthy is a well-known commentator on political and economic issues
Arun_S
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Arun_S »

Katare wrote:Arun_S

There is no out brust only polite reminder that all kind of jurnos are discarded like this at BRF why have a separate standard for amit just because he is pro-deal and you obviously don't like it?
You are grossly wrong on this one. I pity your assessment.
Articles are rated based on writer's history at BRF, if amit calls GM what he did, why don't you prove him wrong by showing how Gurumurthy is not a sawdeshi extremist.
It is for Amit to show weakness in what is said in that article, not me to prove anything or protect the writer of said article. I am sure Amit can bat for himself and does not need a spokesperson.

Thank you.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Arun_S »

India's concerns on N-deal have been met: Sen
Washington, October 9: Describing the US President's signing into law the legislation on the nuclear deal as a "new beginning" in bilateral ties, India has said its concerns on certain provisions of the bill have been met with George W Bush's assurance on fuel supplies and 'advanced consent' to it for reprocessing.

"Absolutely", remarked Indian Ambassador to the US, Ronen Sen, when asked by reporters if the President's address at the signing of the legislation met all of India's concerns.

"I think the statement (of Bush) speaks for itself... all concerns that have been expressed who fear the implications of certain elements of the legislation. All those have been met," Sen said in response to a query on fuel supply assurances.

Bush, while signing the HR 7081 bill into law last night, had said there were "no changes" in fuel supply commitments as provided in the 123 Agreement and added India had also been granted "advanced consent" for reprocessing.

There were fears that the legislation as approved by the Congress may have a couple of riders regarding fuels supplies.

"I am confident because we negotiated the 123 Agreement with great care and I was confident right from the beginning that many of concerns that had been expressed would be met like they have been in the past," the top Indian envoy said shortly after Bush signed the nuclear deal Bill into law.

The top Indian diplomat was pressed on about the fear that Washington could approach others in the Nuclear Suppliers Group to cut off fuel in the event of an atomic test by India.

"I think we can keep on having questions and discussions repeatedly. I feel we should be a little more confident of ourselves. We should have a little bit more self esteem and we should not always require these re-assurances. We should grow up... I feel this very strongly," Sen replied.

"This President has exceeded our expectations on each and every issue. I firmly believe this President has contributed in an extraordinary manner. He would be remembered in history as opening up a new chapter in our relationship," Sen said.

The Indian envoy said the ties between the countries have now truly transformed into a strategic partnership in "every sense of the word".

"This is a beginning in a way. It is a successful conclusion of a process that had often been tortuous and some people had doubts at times -- genuine doubts and genuine concerns. And there has been a debate in our country, which has been a serious debate. But at the end of it we have in a sense reached a conclusion of this process," the Ambassador said.

"We are not quite there. The final will be the signing of this agreement which will essentially represent commitments of the two countries," Sen said. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee will sign the agreement tomorrow with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice at the State department.

"This is a new beginning where we will have a door opened which will lead to more doors and windows of opportunity and that process will continue. In that sense there is much we can do to build upon this agreement which will provide us new opportunities in the field of energy that will not only address our energy security concern but also mark the end of a broader technology denial regime that has been in place for more than three decades," Ambassador Sen said.

"So in that sense both in the bilateral context and the global context it opens up many new avenues. All these will directly benefit the people of India and contribute to the well being of all citizens of our country," he added.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by RajeshA »

The 'signing statements' in 'H.R. 7081, the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act' are packaged

1. not as revising or contradicting its legal provisions, which are deemed as constraining to India. This was the last hope of Dr. Manmohan Singh. That was the reason, the 123 Agreement was not signed on Octorber 4th, 2008 during the visit of US Secretary of State Condooleeza Rice's visit to India.

2. not disputing, that in legal terms, 123 Agreement and its contents takes precedence over the Hyde Act. The rhetoric of Indian Cabinet Ministers during the Trust Vote in Indian Parliament on July 22nd, 2008 indicated the contrary. This can be considered a case of misleading Parliament, even though one can argue, that the legal status of 123 Agreement was finalized after that date.

3. not challenging US Policy to 'seek to prevent' other NSG Members from continuing with nuclear cooperation with India after India has conducted nuclear testing {in my opinion the most toxic statement}.

4. not rejecting US Policy as stated by US Congress, that US will try to enforce a ban on ENR transfer to non-NPT countries (meaning India) through the NSG, in which case it would become part of NSG Guidelines. Funny part is that India would have to agree to these NSG Guidelines as per the NSG Waiver, and thereby target herself :shock: .

5. not clarifying the legal status of the fuel assurances - whether they are political assurances by only the current President, or legal assurances by USG. This in fact makes all the assurances that are there in 123 Agreement, which by the way does not override the Hyde Act, null and void after the tenure of the current President; and is a grave contradiction of the understanding perpetual fuel supply in exchange for perpetual safeguards in the Separation Plan of 3rd March, 2006.

------------------------------

3. and 5. tries to box India into CTBT at a practical level, if not in a legal way. If India places its domestic nuclear reactors into the civilian domain, then those reactors come under perpetual safeguards. Now if India tests, then USA cuts off its fuel supply (5), and enforces others to cut their fuel supply as well through the NSG (3). These reactors would then have to fed using domestic nuclear fuel. If at that time there are several domestic nuclear reactors, then all that domestic fuel goes into the civilian sector, and it cannot be used for strategic purposes.

For foreign reactors, of course, we can put into effect legislation, which says that a nuclear reactor would be imported if the company gets a certificate from their Commerce Ministry, that the company would not be prevented in fulfilling its obligations to India, which is assured fuel supply for the life time of the reactor. The company can further place an escrow of 10 years of fuel requirement for the reactor in India.

There is much what India has to do, in order to minimize the adverse effects of 123 Agreement, both through Indian Legislation and through practical means like ensuring uranium mines all over the world and creating a respectable strategic fuel reserve (of course this increases the price of each reactor).

What India can do for starters, is give a Note Verbale to the US side while signing the 123 Agreement, that India sees 'the right to return of nuclear materials on abrogation of 123 Agreement' as mentioned in the 123 Agreement as political commitments by the current Govt. and not legal commitments.

As Raja Ram so succinctly put it, this is a Chakravyu and we are walking into it with our eyes wide open. Getting out of it would be the hard part.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Philip »

The simplest way is for India to retain all its options,is to sign the wretched document,adding the two words,"without prejudice"!

EXplanation:

Without any loss or waiver of rights or privileges.

When a lawsuit is dismissed, the court may enter a judgment against the plaintiff with or without prejudice. When a lawsuit is dismissed without prejudice, it signifies that none of the rights or privileges of the individual involved are considered to be lost or waived. The same holds true when an admission is made or when a motion is denied without prejudice.

The inclusion of the term without prejudice in a judgment of dismissal ordinarily indicates the absence of a decision on the merits and leaves the parties free to litigate the matter in a subsequent action, as though the dismissed action had not been started. Therefore, a dismissal without prejudice makes it unnecessary for the court in which the subsequent action is brought to determine whether that action is based on the same cause as the original action, or whether the identical parties are involved in the two actions.

The purpose and effect of the words without prejudice in a judgment, order, or decree dismissing a suit are to prohibit the defendant from using the doctrine of Res Judicata in any later action by the same plaintiff on the subject matter. The doctrine of res judicata (from the Latin, "a thing decided") is based on the importance of finality in the law. If a court decides a case, the subject of that case is firmly and finally decided between the persons involved in the suit, so no new lawsuit on the same subject may be brought by the persons involved. Therefore, the words without prejudice protect the plaintiff from a defendant's res judicata defense.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by NRao »

I don't know why Indians celebrate this 1,2,3 deal... There is nothing better than self reliance...We should push to further develop Thorium technology...
From a technical PoV, India has no other options. India actually has been painted into a corner.

Having said that the US will try and keep India in that corner. Not just for strategic (military) reasons, but for economic reasons too. The US cannot allow India to build too far out on Thorium technologies. Note that along with the voting for the 123 (or its riders), the US also passed a bill to promote Thorium in the US. It is a competing technology in which - to me - it appears that the US is too far behind.

The question is if there is a political will to support Indian Scicom.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by negi »

Where does India stand today as a weapons state? In 2000, India’s estimated nuke stockpile was 85 to 90 bombs.With China’s 400 and Pakistan’s estimated 45-90, making a total of almost 500 bombs between them, the weapons ratio is almost 5:1 in their favour, and against India
Wow.. so much for an argument. My question is even if a country as hajjar MT bums will it dare to wage a nuclear war against another country even if it has say 100-200 bums ? (ofcourse unless being ruled by a lunatic regime ).We know what two 20-30 kt nukes did to Japan during WW-II , what is it that which makes people think that our current arsenal is not sufficient to deter our adversary.

My grudge against the people who play numbers game , specially when it comes to nukes is do they really think having more nukes will ensure our survival in event of a nuclear war ? :eek:
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by enqyoob »

3. not challenging US Policy to 'seek to prevent' other NSG Members from continuing with nuclear cooperation with India after India has conducted nuclear testing {in my opinion the most toxic statement}.


But Bush basically says that there is nothing beyond what he presented in the 123 to COTUS (yes, wagaman, COTUS can stand for CONGRESS of the United States, ppl are expected to have enough contextual flexibility and not just be limited to what they memorized from some place - just as POTUS can stand for POttedPlant of the United States and WHOTUS can stand for *hores of the United States and GOTUS can stand for Gaandoos of the United States which is all the Pakis here).

So India can sign saying that India is agreeing to what the Prime Minister presented to Parliament.

WHY do Indians want everything approved by the foreigners and attach no value to what India says? That is the whole issue here. The 123 is approved as India agreed to it, as per Bush's statement. Period.

Now there are people here who want to act like the typical PIGS (I am not going to expand that for wagaman) and say,
But saar, I have a doubt onlee.... if I cheat can I still keep the fuel, saaar? If you cut off fuel, can I still keep the reactor, saaar? If you cut off fuel, do I have to still allow inspecteurs into phajilitiz, saaar? Pleeeeease, saaar, can you pls kindly make notashun regarding all these on the cover of YOUR law, which is of course better than saada India law, saaaar? I have another doubt onleee, saaar, ..... :(( :((



As for Perpetual Fuel Supply in Exchange for Perpetual Safeguards, as a NWS, I would expect that any reactor where fuel supply is cut off, gets taken over as a National Interest Critical Facility, and gets put under military control, and any IAEA or other inspectors can take a hike.

If you were American and not a GOTUS, would you expect a sovereign nation like India to react in any other way? Sit around with a starving empty facility under "perpetual safeguards" begging for fuel?

The 123 says that it is up to India to decide which facilities to bring into the civilian sector under safeguards. If the fuel is cut off, it is a violation of the 123 as far as India is concerned, and then India is "free to take necessary steps" to ensure that the reactor keeps running. This will presumably involve bringing in Classified materials and technology, and that facility goes into the strategic sector, whatever equipment or other stuff is left there.

If the GOTUS has cut off fuel, what the heck else are they gonna do? Invade? Bomb?
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by negi »

The deal is done and there's no turning back, hence I don't think there is anything to worry about regarding the fuel supply (for apart from reference to a nuke test there is nothing in the deal which can legally revoke fuel supply to India) .I believe it is understood that GOI and the SciCom knew that we would have to hold on to the 'TESTs' for quite some time if we were to reap benefits from the nuclear deal and now that the decision is made and deal signed there is no point in even discussing about the 'TEST' .

Having said that it goes without saying during this initial phase we need a stable GOI at center to carry forward what MMS and Co have done.The earlier we complete all the formalities and paper pushing involved in building new reactors the better , I wonder if the current economic crisis is beneficial from India's perspective as from a pure business point of view there should be immense pressure on French,Ru and the US governments from the Private players to be the first one's to tap India's market.

Lastly the only way to counter the ENR tech denial is to maintain our good and responsible image in the nuclear community for I am pretty sure no one is gonna provide it to us , and hopefully in the mean time our scientific establishments which until now were handicapped to an extent in the name of Dual use technology should be able to achieve self reliance in fuel processing and enrichment required for the new generation of reactors .
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by NRao »

Can India start importing Uranium - today? Or are there some more protocols remaning - perhaps IAEA India specific somestuff?

India still needs fuel for her current set of reactors, which are not upt o full capacity, but that are under IAEA.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by SSridhar »

Oz opposition asks Rudd government to sell Uranium to India
Australian Opposition parties on Thursday pressed the Federal Government to review its stand on selling uranium to India, saying the current "hypocritical" policy will hurt the mining companies with New Delhi back into the nuclear club.

The Opposition parties also reminded the Government that it did not object to NSG waiver for India.

"Now that the US-India agreement has been made law, the Rudd government is in an untenable position by refusing to allow the sale of Australian uranium to India under the same terms, conditions and International Atomic Energy Agency inspection program as Australian uranium sales to China," Opposition resources spokesman Ian Macfarlane said.

"This is the same agreement that Australia approved last month, as a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, yet the government persists with its ideological and patronising refusal to allow a similar deal between India and Australia.

"This unsustainable position comes at the expense of local jobs in the Australian resources sector, which is being denied access to the substantial market and major investment opportunities," Macfarlane was quoted as saying by AAP.

The Government led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has insisted that it will not sell uranium to India while the country remains outside the non-proliferation treaty.

Macfarlane said India will need extensive reserves of clean energy to meet the needs of its growing population while lowering its greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation.

"With the world's most extensive reserves of uranium, Australia is well positioned to meet that demand," he said.

"But the government's obstructionist approach and unsustainable double standards are holding us back and standing in the way of jobs growth and new export opportunities for the resources sector," he said.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by NRao »

Negiji,

A couple of points. I am willing to support your no-need-to-test philosophy. If I may add, IF testing was THAT important, then it should have been item #1 - when the topic came up - and MMS should have backed off from any deal (only to make the point). At this point in time, if I may, it is a moot point. All India is saying is that we will test if needed and IF we have to face the consequences we will face those too. BUT, I think India is actually daring others to sanction her if she tests - I just do not see a US doing any thing. A weaker India will necessarily mean a weaker US. Three events have made that even more important - Georgia and the lack of EU support for the US, military aid to Taiwan and the Chinese response and the current economic crisis, in addition to the repeat of V'nam in Iraq and A'stan.

A few more observations on "testing". Within more potent missiles - both in terms of distance travelled and accuracy, India should be able to live with nukes with less yields. In addition the current efforts of ABM should contribute to survivability (what is that in a nuclear war?). WRT to TSP there are couple of other reasons why India can sleep better.

On ENR, an important point to note. India needs to see the technologies. The actual agreements are worthless. For instance 123:
ARTICLE 6 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE ACTIVITIES

In keeping with their commitment to full civil nuclear cooperation, both Parties, as they do with other states with advanced nuclear technology, may carry out the following nuclear fuel cycle activities:

i) Within the territorial jurisdiction of either Party, enrichment up to twenty percent in the isotope 235 of uranium transferred pursuant to this Agreement, as well as of uranium used in or produced through the use of equipment so transferred, may be carried out.
That 20% is useless for FBRs. (FBRs need somewhere in the range of 75%+ IIRC, I think it is 85%. Need to google for that.) So, the ENR techs for the explicit purpose of routing fuel, from these imported reactors into the three phase, is useless (someone please correct me if I am wrong).

Also, those that claim Indian ENR will suffice, I am not sure on what grounds they make that statement. ANY imported fuel will be under IAEA and per agreementS that imported fuel cannot be enriched beyond 20%. So, even Indian techs will not help - even though the Indian ENR are more than capable of enriching way beyond 20% - they are already doing that.

So, what remains in Indian ore, which is actually starved of uranium. The only reason Indian ore can be economically viable is when the world price of Uranium remains very high.

JMTs.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by NRao »

On the topic of Bush signing and associated statements, the statements mean something only as long as Bush lasts. Even Tellis has bluntly said so (for what that is worth).

The fact remains that it would have been best for India to get everything (J18) embedded in a US "bill". India did not get that and therefore this unstable condition will continue to hound Indian nuclear environment until either India tests or the US amends the "bills".

Bush has done his best, and, India can reap some benefits. Perhaps for the next few years India should take advantage of that at the very least.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by enqyoob »

NRaoji:

There has been another Bill brought before the COTUS :mrgreen: This is called Thorium Something Something Bill. It explicitly seeks to advance the thorium cycle in the US. I am not saying this is driven by the prospect of cooperation with India, but I am not saying it is not, either.

So when this comes up, the appropriate enrichment etc will also get permitted under IAEA approval.

Until then, India is going to keep FBR in the strategic sector anyway, so this is really not an issue.

At any rate, TODAY, it is not possible to get the IAEA/NSG to agree to more than 20% enriched fuel lying around civilian facilities, because of the fear of terrorists, among other things.

Just my Palin-level understanding of nyookular things. Vive L'Ignorance!
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by NRao »

N^3,

The 20% is an IAEA standard, which is why the US put that figure. India wanted open ended enrichment (J18, remember that?).

Talking of terrorism. Uncle has a solution for that too - it is called GNEP. India has been invited and actually has been offered a place at the table!!!! Yaa hoo.

On Thorium bill, yes I posted that. But it is a measly $400 million. And, India perhaps leads all these snake oil sales people. However, I can see the US saying that they will enrich to 85% and sell to India!!! And, all the "breeded" stuff is theirs - per 123 agreement, since it is more than 20%.

On India keeping FBRs in strategic side, it is only till 2020. That is not too far out...................for the simple reason to feed them when they DO come across to the civilian side (in 2020), the needed fuel should be there. And, to have that fuel ready, India needs to have enrichment plants in place ......................... by 2012-15!!!!!!! Yo, that is just 4-7 years away. Given oil - to grease Indian wheels - is very short supply, it ain't going to happen the way we are all going.

I undesrtand a salami group feels that these techs will come under the table.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by ramana »

We need to read carefully what Bush signed.
I am pleased today to sign into law the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act, which approves the U.S.-India 123 Agreement. The passage of this legislation by the Congress marks another major milestone in achieving the vision that Prime Minister Singh and I set forth on July 18, 2005, to transform the relationship between our two countries and to establish a strategic partnership. This Act will strengthen the relationship between the United States and India and deliver valuable benefits to both nations.

The legislation does not change the terms of the 123 Agreement as I submitted it to the Congress. That Agreement is consistent with the Atomic Energy Act and other elements of U.S. law. This legislation is important as it enables me to bring the 123 Agreement into force and to accept on behalf of the United States the obligations contained in the Agreement.

The Agreement grants India advance consent to reprocessing which will be brought into effect upon conclusion of arrangements and procedures for a dedicated reprocessing facility under IAEA safeguards.

In addition, the legislation does not change the fuel assurance commitments that the U.S. Government has made to the Government of India, as recorded in the 123 Agreement.

The passage of this legislation reflects the common view of my Administration and the Congress as to the value of nuclear cooperation and is in the interest of the United States and India.
He is making a difference beween the agreement and the legislation. He says the legislation enables him to sign the agreement which has been negotiated with India. He says the agreement confers reproc rights in a dedicated reproc facility and fuel supply assurances.

My interpetation of the fuel supply assurances is they are the political assurances of the US Govt and not just his, as foreign policy is the President/Executive domain. He is making these statements as the US President and not as George Bush. He has drawn a circle around the legislation and separated it from the agreement. A future President might interpret it in a different way but that is unlikely for it will break the consensus on the powers of the President. The qualifier is a hostile India in which case all bets are off anyway.


I think it does deliver what India needs yet allows US to pull a malafide rug under the feet in future. Currently thats the best one can get now. He is weakened by the financial crisis, geopolitical crisis and a resurgent Democratic Party.

Its upto India to structure the deals in such a way that India benefits. One thing is no buying plant and equipemnt from US companies without their investing and ensuring a financial stake/risk to them in case of pullout.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Arun_S »

negi wrote:
Where does India stand today as a weapons state? In 2000, India’s estimated nuke stockpile was 85 to 90 bombs.With China’s 400 and Pakistan’s estimated 45-90, making a total of almost 500 bombs between them, the weapons ratio is almost 5:1 in their favour, and against India
Wow.. so much for an argument. My question is even if a country as hajjar MT bums will it dare to wage a nuclear war against another country even if it has say 100-200 bums ? (ofcourse unless being ruled by a lunatic regime ).We know what two 20-30 kt nukes did to Japan during WW-II , what is it that which makes people think that our current arsenal is not sufficient to deter our adversary.

My grudge against the people who play numbers game , specially when it comes to nukes is do they really think having more nukes will ensure our survival in event of a nuclear war ? :eek:
If things were as simple surely dear brother China, France, UK, US,Russia would have by now reduced their inventory to Indian inventory level and retained just the small 20-30 kt fatakada, not withstanding the error in their judgment in building a large inventory that continue to suck money, and the cold war and their corner of globe (versus Indian corner of globe that faces the most N armed certified enemies, not counting the potential of other when one is on path to a pole in multi-polar world). But obviously none of us have hear of similar eureka reasons, much less actions from those countries. On can easily say "Wow.. so much for your argument".

IMHO Indian arsenal's yield, reach and quantity have got to be more than what it is today in terms of yield, mass (to be read as reach) and qty, taken together and not stand alone. Once one appreciates that, then one can also appreciate the dilemma that DAE/GoI/Strategist are in w.r.t. the deal, which is no more called "US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement", its is now correctly and aptly called by US as "US-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act".
negi wrote:The deal is done and there's no turning back, hence I don't think there is anything to worry about regarding the fuel supply (for apart from reference to a nuke test there is nothing in the deal which can legally revoke fuel supply to India) .I believe it is understood that GOI and the SciCom knew that we would have to hold on to the 'TESTs' for quite some time if we were to reap benefits from the nuclear deal and now that the decision is made and deal signed there is no point in even discussing about the 'TEST' .
I agree with the above, except the last sentence.
Having said that it goes without saying during this initial phase we need a stable GOI at center to carry forward what MMS and Co have done.
Exactly.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by awagaman »

Vardarajan Hindu article:
http://svaradarajan.blogspot.com/2008/1 ... eaves.html

Bush signing statement on 123 leaves flaws intact
President endorses fuel assurances, but U.S. interpretation of agreement is unchanged

Siddharth Varadarajan

In a well-attended ceremony that underlined the strategic importance of the Indian nuclear deal to the United States, President George W. Bush on Wednesday signed into law the ‘U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Nonproliferation Enhancement Act’. The Act, known as H.R. 7081, was passed by Congress on October 1 and represents the American legislature’s formal approval of the U.S.-India bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement – the ‘123 Agreement’ – concluded in July 2007.

Flanked by Vice-President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman and a bipartisan sprinkling of top legislators from Congress, Mr. Bush made a brief statement on the occasion of the signing in which he sought to allay Indian concerns about the United States derogating from its obligations under the 123 Agreement. These concerns arose because of the statement the President himself made in a letter to Congress last month that the fuel supply assurances contained within the 123 represented a “political” rather than a legally binding commitment.

By incorporating an explicit reference to Mr. Bush’s letter – as well as other “authoritative representations” on the subject by the administration – Congress gave these interpretations a definite legislative status which will live well beyond the life of the current presidency. Congress also sought to put an end to the Government of India’s spin that the 123 Agreement – once it became law – would trump the provisions of the Hyde Act as far as American obligations were concerned. This it did by explicitly inserting rules of construction stating that nothing in the Agreement should be construed to supersede the legal requirements of the Hyde Act.

By itself, none of this amounted to a change in the text of the 123, which has been frozen for over a year and which, in any case, cannot unilaterally be amended by one side. Thus, President Bush’s assurance in his October 8 signing statement that HR 7081 “does not change the terms of the 123 Agreement as I submitted it to the Congress” is redundant. There is no reason for India to feel comforted by this statement of the obvious. What Congress did, however, was to enter legal reservations or qualifications, thereby serving advance notice to India about how exactly the United States intends to implement the text. And on these, Mr. Bush remained completely silent, presumably because his office originated these reservations in the first place.

As Prof. Michael J. Glennon explained in a 1983 essay on ‘The Senate Role in Treaty Ratification’ in the American Journal of International Law, the U.S. Senate conditions its consent to treaties – which is what the 123 Agreement is -- in one of two ways. “It may amend its resolution of ratification by adding material (normally called a reservation, understanding, interpretation, declaration, or statement), or it may amend the resolution of ratification by inserting a condition that the text of the treaty be amended… Each form of alteration is equally binding on the President… International law, similarly, regards a reservation to a bilateral treaty as tantamount to a proposed amendment. The principal reason that the Senate sometimes prefers the "reservation" mode to the "amendment" mode is diplomatic: domestic political considerations in the nonreserving state may make it easier for its government to accept a treaty alteration that is cosmetically less glaring”.

HR 7081, as it emerged finally from the Senate, subjected the 123 Agreement to precisely this kind of “cosmetically less glaring” alteration by embedding riders about the fuel supply assurances being mere political commitments.

President Bush’s signing statement sought to address Indian objections to these riders by the cosmetic use of words and phrases that reiterated Washington’s commitment to its obligations in the abstract while leaving undisturbed the concrete, legislatively-embedded interpretations that India believes run counter to the letter and spirit of the 123 Agreement. Thus, Mr. Bush could observe that “the legislation does not change the fuel assurance commitments that the U.S. Government has made to the Government of India, as recorded in the 123 Agreement”, without in any way contradicting his earlier statement, as reflected in HR 7081, that these fuel assurance commitments were not legally binding. He wisely avoided using the words ‘Hyde Act’. And he spoke positively of reprocessing consent, ignoring the fact that the law he was signing had created a tough new, India-specific provision for Congressional approval of this consent.

What gives a diplomatic document its legally binding nature is the intent of its drafters to conclude an agreement in written form governed by international law. It is also a settled position in U.S. law that documents intended to have mere moral or political weight, but not to be legally binding, are not international agreements. Since the 123 Agreement is manifestly an international agreement, it follows that all of its provisions are equally binding in a legal sense. India is thus on strong legal grounds to insist on the text of the 123 Agreement, as signed by the two Parties, being the sole reference point for elaborating the rights and obligations of both sides. But it needs to break its silence on the U.S. reservations that have already been entered rather than declaring, as Ambassador Ronen Sen did on Wednesday, that India was “completely satisfied” by the statements President Bush made.

India can cite, in defence of its position, the U.S.’s own legal understanding on the matter. In a 1991 ‘Article-by-Article Analysis of START Documents’ submitted to Congress, the State Department wrote: “An undertaking or commitment that is understood to be legally binding carries with it both the obligation of each Party to comply with the undertaking and the right of each Party to enforce the obligation under international law. A “political” undertaking is not governed by international law and there are no applicable rules pertaining to compliance, modification or withdrawal. Until and unless a Party extricates itself from its “political” undertaking, which it may do without legal penalty, it has given a promise to honor that commitment, and the other Party has every reason to be concerned about compliance with such undertakings. (Cited in John H. McNeill, ‘International Agreements: Recent U.S.-UK Practice Concerning the Memorandum of Understanding’, American Journal of International Law, October 1994). (Emphasis added)

But if the 123 Agreement has the status of a legally binding treaty in international law, how does the U.S. propose to derogate from some of its obligations on the specious plea that they are not legally binding? By entering reservations, which it has effectively done. India, therefore, needs to contest these. If the diplomatic note the U.S. hands over as part of the process of making the 123 Agreement enter into force contains references to HR7081 and its reservations, quietly accepting this instrument of ratification without a similar strong statement from the Indian side would be tantamount to accepting that the 123 Agreement does not give India legal rights to fuel for any U.S. reactor it imports.

There is no reason for the Indian side to by shy or coy about this. Candour is better than discretion and stating one’s position upfront offers the best protection against accusations of bad faith later. India “choked” when it decided to drop – from its September 10 Letter of Intent on the purchase of 10,000 MW worth of American reactors – an explicit reference conditioning any future purchase on the establishment of permanent reprocessing consent. And India choked again when External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee stood next to Condoleezza Rice in Delhi on October 4 and failed to state the country’s position forcefully when the U.S. Secretary of State reiterated her government’s intention of pressing for a ban on enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) equipment and technology when the Nuclear Suppliers Group meets again in November.

Dr. Rice cleverly described the proposal to ban ENR sales to countries that are not signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a “criteria-based approach” that was not singling out India. Instead of responding in generalities, Mr. Mukherjee should have said that India would consider any such move by the U.S. at the NSG to be an unfriendly act, one unbecoming of a ‘strategic partner’. He should have said any such move would represent a dilution of the July 2005 Indo-U.S. agreement in which India accepted a number of obligations in exchange for full civil nuclear cooperation. And he should have said such a move by the U.S. would violate Article 18 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties which obliges Parties to an agreement to refrain from acts which would defeat the object and purpose of an agreement – in this case, full civil nuclear cooperation with India. By remaining silent, however, India allowed the impression to gain ground that it is prepared to drop this issue without a fight.

On Friday, the U.S. and India will sign the 123 Agreement at a ceremony in Washington. Whatever the Agreement’s original merits, the executive and legislative branches of U.S. government have stripped it of any concrete meaning. President Bush’s signing statement does little to fix the situation. India needs to clarify its position on all of these questions. And send a signal to the world that it cannot be taken for granted.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by NRao »

He says the agreement confers reproc rights in a dedicated reproc facility and fuel supply assurances.
Consent to reprocess to 20%. Furthermore, (from 123):
Transfers of dual-use items that could be used in enrichment, reprocessing or heavy water production facilities will be subject to the Parties' respective applicable laws, regulations and license policies.
It is not an open ended deal for ENR. Which is what is required for three-phase.

Now, Indian expectations were that India could approach FR/RU for these techs and just buy US reactors (and not expect US ENR techs). Now, how far will a US Prez go to block that remains to be seen. For sure FR has not given it last week. I expect RU to kick that can too and not give India ENR.

Added l8r:

Let me put it this way. IF India sticks to imported Uranium reactors, there will be no problems at all. India will get as amny as she wants - the latest and greatest, with ENR and more. The tangential items (space, medical fields, etc) also, I expect, would do better.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by enqyoob »

NRaoji:

I for one do NOT see the "E" as a problem at all, but don't think it should be discussed either. I see it as a driver of indigenous R&D involving a lot of hi-tech advancements, and I would be faaaaaar happier having these under continued import restrictions so that Indian money is not wasted on buying third-hand stuff, instead it should go into fast-paced strategic-sector R&D.

As u know, I am a big fan of sanctions as the only hope to nurture Indian technological advancement and minimize the "fact-finding trade missions" and "offset transfer agreements" that end up funding foreign weapon manufacturers to develop the next gift to the Pakistani Air Force using the hard-won tax or remittance $$ of the resident or non-resident Indian. :mrgreen: I agree with the need to buy a few reactors and get some imported fuel to run them, but that's it. The rest, I hope, all remains under "sanctions". So I am quite happy with the deal as it stands.

Like I said, NO ONE is going to "give" enrichment technology beyond 20 percent to India IN PUBLIC. if you samajh what I soch.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Rye »

narayanan wrote:
for one do NOT see the "E" as a problem at all, but don't think it should be discussed either. I see it as a driver of indigenous R&D involving a lot of hi-tech advancements, and I would be faaaaaar happier having these under continued import restrictions so that Indian money is not wasted on buying third-hand stuff, instead it should go into fast-paced strategic-sector R&D.
Nice one. The incongruity of those arguing that India should be self-sufficient in a gigaton weapon at the drop of a hat are also the same ones who want to import crucial civilian nuke tech from the NSG, which would be the surest way of killing the indigenous nuclear R&D sector. Once people get ideological rather than pragmatic, their common sense seems to take a hike.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by RajeshA »

I know of a neighbor, who perhaps can give some 'E'. His name is A.Q. Cough Cough.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by NRao »

N^3,

IF I may add to your post: IF India decides to import any reactors, I just hope these reactors behave like proper guests.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by RajeshA »

narayanan wrote:
3. not challenging US Policy to 'seek to prevent' other NSG Members from continuing with nuclear cooperation with India after India has conducted nuclear testing {in my opinion the most toxic statement}.


But Bush basically says that there is nothing beyond what he presented in the 123 to COTUS.

So India can sign saying that India is agreeing to what the Prime Minister presented to Parliament.

WHY do Indians want everything approved by the foreigners and attach no value to what India says? That is the whole issue here. The 123 is approved as India agreed to it, as per Bush's statement. Period.
Now there are people here who want to act like the typical PIGS (I am not going to expand that for wagaman) and say,
But saar, I have a doubt onlee.... if I cheat can I still keep the fuel, saaar? If you cut off fuel, can I still keep the reactor, saaar? If you cut off fuel, do I have to still allow inspecteurs into phajilitiz, saaar? Pleeeeease, saaar, can you pls kindly make notashun regarding all these on the cover of YOUR law, which is of course better than saada India law, saaaar? I have another doubt onleee, saaar, ..... :(( :((
That is the whole story. In 123 Agreement, testing is not considered cheating. The Saars can just say one day, they are done with you and terminate the agreement, and Indians need to know beforehand how and when they would terminate and what will be consequences for us.
As for Perpetual Fuel Supply in Exchange for Perpetual Safeguards, as a NWS, I would expect that any reactor where fuel supply is cut off, gets taken over as a National Interest Critical Facility, and gets put under military control, and any IAEA or other inspectors can take a hike.

If you were American and not a GOTUS, would you expect a sovereign nation like India to react in any other way? Sit around with a starving empty facility under "perpetual safeguards" begging for fuel?

The 123 says that it is up to India to decide which facilities to bring into the civilian sector under safeguards. If the fuel is cut off, it is a violation of the 123 as far as India is concerned, and then India is "free to take necessary steps" to ensure that the reactor keeps running. This will presumably involve bringing in Classified materials and technology, and that facility goes into the strategic sector, whatever equipment or other stuff is left there.

If the GOTUS has cut off fuel, what the heck else are they gonna do? Invade? Bomb?
Elbaradei has himself said, that once a facility comes under safeguards, these remain perpetually. So it is not the Americans, we will be showing the middle finger by putting them in the strategic domain, but rather IAEA, and Indians don't want to do that. Only rogue countries do that. "Corrective Measures" are undefined, which is OK, but we can't take them out of safeguards.

Of course, that is the mentality of going by the book. On the otherhand, if we want to drive our truck honking, with music blasting and us showing the middle finger to all and sundry on the road, then we can do that too. No problem, but it will be very unlike us.
ramana
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by ramana »

Elbaradei has himself said, that once a facility comes under safeguards, these remain perpetually. So it is not the Americans, we will be showing the middle finger by putting them in the strategic domain, but rather IAEA, and Indians don't want to do that. Only rogue countries do that. "Corrective Measures" are undefined, which is OK, but we can't take them out of safeguards.
On the contray when supreme national interests dictate that India test, then the rogues are those who insist on breaking the agreements. What do they want ? India to roll over and play dead? Those are the rogues.
enqyoob
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by enqyoob »

Was listening to NPR on the way home, about the Indian reaction to the agreement, etc.

MJ Akbar sounds like a 400% idiot -he was bleating about how the same investment should have been better spent on hydroelectric energy, dams, "there is so much water every year, look at the floods".

I guess he has not heard of Arundhoti Whineroy and Medha Patkar, and chooses to ignore the issue of how much hydroelectric power one gets in the summer. So HIS opposition is shown to be completely dishonest.

Then they turned to TSP's :(( :(( And that is the point of my post - the contrast between how India does things, and how the real rogues of the world do things. Apparently Kiyani has just returned from a "secret" discussion with the Chinese commies, who have promised to set up "at least 2 new nuclear processing facilities" in TSP. No IAEA, no NSG, no 123, 456 or 789. No NPT or CTBT.

The Chinese are still violating every agreement they sign.

I shut off the radio because I was worried I would ram any car out there that had any sticker supporting the NPAs - since all the cars around me were giant SUVs and me in just a car... :eek:

It's time India got out of this 400% Harischandra mode and went out and signed "agreements" left and right - then did exactly what suits India.

It's time to treat the real Rogue States as Rogue States.
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by Anujan »

narayanan wrote: Apparently Kiyani has just returned from a "secret" discussion with the Chinese commies, who have promised to set up "at least 2 new nuclear processing facilities" in TSP. No IAEA, no NSG, no 123, 456 or 789. No NPT or CTBT.

The Chinese are still violating every agreement they sign.
Narayanan-saar,

More details please ?

Pakis were always making noises about 2 more power plants at Chashma to augment the 2 which are already working there. The plants at Chashma are all under IAEA safeguards. Now the chinis were waffling back and forth trying to insert the 2 more plants into the earlier agreement so that there will be no (overt) friction at NSG. Even if they do, the new plants will still be under IAEA safeguards.

Now the Paki Khushab facility is not under safeguards and that is where they produce Plutonium (note that paki bombs till today are uranium based, not clear where their plutonium weapons program stands). The chinis of course lent a helping hand (read pretty much exported every nut and bolt) and pakis proudly declared it to be 400% indigenous. Now the pakis are building another facility in Khushab (the whole spy sat photo - "south asian" nuclear arms race psy ops). I would guess that the chinis wont overtly support this facility.

If it is chashma and not Khushab, the no need to worree, just get out of your car and pee on the bumper stickers. If it is Khushab that the chinis are helping out with, buy an SUV - may I recommend an escalade with 26" rims ?
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by RajeshA »

ramana wrote:
Elbaradei has himself said, that once a facility comes under safeguards, these remain perpetually. So it is not the Americans, we will be showing the middle finger by putting them in the strategic domain, but rather IAEA, and Indians don't want to do that. Only rogue countries do that. "Corrective Measures" are undefined, which is OK, but we can't take them out of safeguards.
On the contray when supreme national interests dictate that India test, then the rogues are those who insist on breaking the agreements. What do they want ? India to roll over and play dead? Those are the rogues.
Rogue Nations is basically propaganda terminology. Those who control the media and international institutions define who is rogue and who is not. Indian power is still growing but we aren't there yet. The powerful are never rogue. They have only security interests.

It doesn't mean that fear of the rogue nation label should influence India's decisions on questions of national interest, but it doesn't harm if India's opponents do not get any arguments of international impropriety to throw at India. So if better negotiated treaties help us to avoid being the targets of spurious accusations, what is wrong with that?
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Re: India nuclear news and discussion - 6 sep 2008

Post by ldev »

Enough of the :(( :(( . Its become a permanent fixture on this thread. Lets see some of the benefits of this deal. S.K. Jain of NPCIL is all excited about the future.

Nuclear power will be competitively priced
Q&A: S K JAIN
Vandana Gombar & P B Jayakumar / Mumbai October 10, 2008, 0:55 IST


With the US President George W Bush signing the Indo-US nuclear bill, India is looking at a more than seven-fold capacity increase over the next decade, to about 30,000 Mw. While there are many challenges to overcome from land acquisition to employee attrition, Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd’s (NPCIL is the only company authorised to build nuclear power plants in India) CMD Dr Sreyans Kumar Jain is confident the power will be competitively priced. Excerpts from an interview with Vandana Gombar and PB Jayakumar:


Q.How soon will the first results of the nuclear deal be visible?
There are three major suppliers of light water reactors — the US, France and Russia. We still have to sign the deal with the US; the Inter-governmental Agreement (IGA) with the French has been signed and needs to be ratified; the IGA with the Russian Federation is slated to be signed during the first week of December when the Russian president is expected to visit India.

In the last three years, we’ve had detailed discussions with all the four vendors — General Electric, Westinghouse, Areva and Rosatom. To begin with, we are planning to negotiate with each one of them for one pair of reactors each (not less than 1000 Mw) with the clear understanding that there will be a basket of such reactors, that the relationship would extend to 6-8 reactors. You can’t start the construction of all the 20-30 reactors simultaneously.

Q.How soon will the reactors get operationalised?
We have two sites today, at Kudankulam (Tamil Nadu) and Jaitapur (Maharashtra) and the Russians are already working at the first one, so it is natural we would like to continue with their technology there. We are expecting the government to announce two more sites very soon from among the four shortlisted coastal sites at Gujarat, Andhra, Orissa and West Bengal. It takes at least 24 months for a greenfield site to be ready, and about 60 months thereafter.

Q.How will you keep costs competitive if you’re not bidding out the contracts?
We’ve indicated very clearly to all the vendors that there are no subsidies and so the power has to compete with other energy resources in the country. So the project proposals, which will be jointly worked out, must ensure that the tariff is comparable to that from any thermal plant.

The benchmark price from the Sasan ultra-mega project is Rs 1.20 per unit …
That’s the ‘levellised’ cost – since our project life is 60 years, we’ll be better on that. Today’s tariff for Sasan will be Rs 4-4.5 while our tariff will not be more than Rs 4 per unit, and that includes the cost of everything including waste disposal and decommissioning.


Q.And the funding?
We have enough cash to fund the equity to support 10,000 Mw and can go to the government for more. As for debt, we could borrow domestically or abroad or even get soft government credit/vendor financing. It all depends upon the terms.

Q.How many of the 17 reactors in operation are eligible for imported fuel?
Including the five under construction, we’re talking of 22 reactors. Six are already covered under safeguards because they have been constructed with foreign collaboration — at Tarapore, Rajasthan and Kudankumlum. There is a plan to bring 8 more reactors under safeguards. So, 14 will be in the so-called civilian domain as per the separation plan. These would be run with imported fuel.

Q.Is 40,000 Mw by 2020 realistic? We’ve just 4,000 Mw in the last 40 years...
Even if you have the money, there isn’t enough production capability. 30,000 Mw is more realistic.

Q.You will soon have private sector competition, or are these companies trying to partner with you?
The country needs more than one agency to meet the power requirement. But before opening up, we need to frame rules and regulations. Nuclear power plants can’t just be shut down like the Enron one was. They require the same kind of attention whether they’re operational or shut. So we need to ensure that all the players who want to enter have the right credentials, that their business interests don’t override their commitment. Today, our country has given assurances that we have a sound material accounting system — this means each gram of nuclear material which comes to this country is accounted for. So naturally there has to be some mechanism to work out how the accounting will be done for all private players who get this fuel. What happens to the spent fuel? Who will have waste handling responsibility? These are some issues for which government policies are to be spelled out and regulations developed. All this can be done in 2-3 years.

Q.Are you looking an IPO?
If required, we can have one, there is no restriction. NPCIL’s board is empowered to take that decision.

Q.What is your main challenge today?
The main challenge is to realise the opportunities. The debate on the deal has become a household word and the euphoria is very high. People have no idea of how much time it takes to really get the power from a nuclear power plant. When it comes to land acquisition, the issues are same whether it is for a Nano or for a nuclear power plant. We will also have to work out some innovative method of taking over land from existing holders. Maybe we could give them a stake in our plant because whatever compensation you give looks handsome today, but in few years, it goes down the drain — in celebrating birthdays and marriages. Maybe all these people should be stakeholders.
Last edited by ldev on 10 Oct 2008 02:47, edited 1 time in total.
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