West Asia News and Discussions

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 17 Oct 2008 22:05

RajeshA wrote:Over which airspace would the Kazakh Uranium be transported to India?

islamic emirate of waziristan, islamic emirate of afghania and finally radical islamic emirate of pakjabistan.

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 17 Oct 2008 22:11

Saudi cleric favours one-eye veil
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle ... 651231.stm
3 October 2008

A Muslim cleric in Saudi Arabia has called on women to wear a full veil, or niqab, that reveals only one eye.

Sheikh Muhammad al-Habadan said showing both eyes encouraged women to use eye make-up to look seductive.

The question of how much of her face a woman should cover is a controversial topic in many Muslim societies.

The niqab is more common in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, but women in much of the Muslim Middle East wear a headscarf which covers only their hair.

Sheikh Habadan, an ultra-conservative cleric who is said to have wide influence among religious Saudis, was answering questions on the Muslim satellite channel al-Majd.

satya · Post by **satya** » 17 Oct 2008 22:12

Mossad's Secret Role delaying Rogue Nukes?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 20 Oct 2008 04:22

New chief of Mili intel in Lebanon. The Mili intel is backed by several western embassy's in Lebanon, and especially the Americans in Beirut. The US is about to deliver latest intel tech to Lebanese military intelligence and helicopters to the Army.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Oct 2008 13:55

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oc ... peace-plan

Israel considers reviving Saudi peace plan to resolve conflictToni O'Loughlin in Jerusalem The Guardian, Monday October 20 2008
Article history
Israeli leaders are considering reviving a 2002 peace plan that offered the Jewish nation a comprehensive end to its conflict with the Arab world, Israel's defence minister, Ehud Barak, said yesterday.

Talks with the Palestinians and Syrians have yielded little in almost a year so it may be time to consider the Saudi plan which offers Israel normal relations with all 22 Arab countries in exchange for a Palestinian state, Barak said. "We have a mutual interest with moderate Arab elements on the issues of Iran, Hizbullah and Hamas," Barak told Israeli radio.

He added that he had discussed the plan with Israel's prime minister elect, Tzipi Livni, who has also indicated a willingness to resuscitate the plan.

But Livni has struggled to form a new coalition government to replace Ehud Olmert, who resigned his leadership this year amid a fraud investigation.

For the past month she has been talking to opposition parties and yesterday she asked the president, Shimon Peres, for extra time.

Livni has secured the support of Barak's Labour party, but now she is seeking the support of Shas, a religious party, that is holding out for bigger family support payments.

Barak is the third Israeli leader over the past month that has publicly touted a peace deal akin to the Saudi plan which would require Israel to withdraw from land it captured in 1967 and has occupied ever since including east Jerusalem, the West Bank, Gaza and the Golan Heights.

Shas insists that Israel must not surrender east Jerusalem but still Barak said "there is room in the Israeli coalition for the Saudi initiative".

Barak said he fully supported Peres, who last month proposed combining Israel's various peace talks to produce a regional agreement and urged the Saudis to press on with their plan. Barak added that Livni agreed with revisiting the Saudi proposal.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Oct 2008 01:52

Arab Websites report Mossad chief assassinated in Amman. Israeli sources deny

DEBKAfile reports that Arab Internet sites, most of them Jordanian, claim that 10 days ago on Oct. 12, Meir Dagan, the head of Israel’s external intelligence service, the Mossad, was targeted by assassins while visiting Amman. Some describe a large bomb explosion alongside his convoy and add that Israeli and Jordanian guards with the convoy were injured. Others say Dagan himself was hurt or even killed in the attack. They claim Israel and Jordan are keeping the incident a secret.

DEBKAfile’s sources have no knowledge of any visit by Meir Dagan to the Jordanian capital.

Jordanian officials are trying hard to dismiss the incident. Without going on record, they maintain Dagan had paid no recent visits to their capital and was not attacked. This has not been enough to dispel the rumors. The only way to refute them would be for Meir Dagan to make an appearance in person.

The movements of intelligence chiefs, especially in the Middle East, are strictly shrouded in secrecy who travel in constant fear of their lives.

Whether the US CIA director Gen. Michael Hayden, for instance, actually went through with a planned visit to Beirut on Oct. 16, has never been disclosed.

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources confirm that he was indeed there. The visit was important to make sure that the new head of Lebanese military intelligence, Gen. Edmund Fadal, who traveled to Damascus directly after his appointment to meet his Syrian counterpart, Gen. Asif Shawqat, was not caught in the Syrian net. The service he heads is the staunchest pro-Western military outfit in Lebanon.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 22 Oct 2008 19:04

US intel released info yesterday that by Feb 2009, Iran will have enough for a bomb, and info coming out of the Obama camp is that they will hit Iran before then and keep the Palestine issue on the low.

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Saudi's and Syria/Iran are preparing for a showdown in Lebanon, Saudi's arming Saad Harriri's militia, while the Syrians are massing forces on its borders.
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Iran is working on a plan to hit Israel pre-emptively too.

Rampy · Post by **Rampy** » 23 Oct 2008 07:14

Now I know what Jo Biden was talking about, Obama being tested in next 6 months. Man with this economic crisis, this does not sound too good

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 23 Oct 2008 17:13

The Iranians prefer Obama in power according to Ali Larijani, who said this in a press conference in Manama, Bahrain.

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Shaker Absi, the head of the movement Fatah Al Islam, is said to be languishing in jail in Syria. Some say he is living comfortably in Syria. Beirut and Damascus are fighting over extradition to Lebanon. According to news he was reportedly killed but the Saudi's brokered a deal to allow him to escape. He was a former Air force pilot in Jordan, joined Fatah (palestinian group). Moved his group to Nahr Al Bared under Damascus orders.
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Hezbollah is preparing for attacks against the Israeli's. As a result, they been scouting for commercial sattelite images. So they approached a Greek firm. The firm seemed very receptive. Before ordering the proposed images, Hezbollah did a few background checks, they find out that the firm had been created by the Israeli intel.

Related to this, Hezbollah has been trying to purchase arms from the Russkies. Rosoboronexport has been reportedly selling the S300 system. Hezbollah was able to send a team to Russia and pass off as Iranian officials. The Iranians wanted to place the system in Lebanese mountains in Mount Sanine. Russia told the team that they will not allow the system to go to Lebanon or to be used by Hezbollah. After sending another team out in August, Russians flatly refused again.

Hezbollah has pulled out its top people from Syria reportedly after the assassination of Imad.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 24 Oct 2008 02:33

Some very interesting news. Last weeks car bomb in Damascus killed many Senior Syrian intel operatives. The car bomb had actually exploded too early. Iran immaediatly banned all nationals from travelling to Syria on hearing the target was a Shia neighbourhood. Iranian intel contacted Hezbollah higher ups and told to stay away from Syria aswell (I said above that the Hezbollah have pulled out its higher ups from Syria). Iranians have a trust issue with the Syrians since Assad wants to forge ties with the US (I may have said earlier that Bush wanted to convert Iran into a western bastion). One of the intel officials participated in the assassination of Harriri. Syrian intel chief reckons it is extremist sunni's. Many of the sunni elements have turned against Syria recently, even Fatah Al Islam (I said above that Absi is sitting in prison in Syria).

Saudi arabia has been supporting the Sunni elements. The Turkish manufactured renault car had entered the country through Jordanian/Syria border. The cars journey reportedly started from the Saudi city of Tabuk. Saudi's have sent in Sunni militia (Algerians, Palestinians, Yemeni's. Clearly Saad Harriri is involved in this) are currently stationed in the Bekaa valley. They are making incursions in to Syrian territory from Lebanon. Syrian Foreign ministry sent a memo to the Jordanians. King Abdullah phoned up Assad denying any involvement. Phone call came after a 6 month isolation in ties between the 2 countries.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Oct 2008 20:31

Syrian Troops Enclose Lebanon, Rice Contacts Hamas

As part of the incipient thaw in US relations with Damascus, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has relayed a friendly message to Hamas political leader Khalid Meshaal through Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem’s aides.

The message, described by Moussa Abu Marzouk, one of the heads of Hamas’ Damascus headquarters, as a “verbal communication.” was received as four Syrian divisions completed their deployment on Lebanon’s borders last week (see exclusive map). In the message, Rice praised the Palestinian terrorist group for halting its missile fire into Israel.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly 369 of Oct. 24 exposed the complete deployment - from the Syrian 4th Division along Lebanon’s northern border and the 10th, 12th and 14th Divisions on Lebanon’s eastern frontier opposite the Hermil mountains and the Beqaa Valley, and down to the Hermon Mountains facing South Lebanon and northern Israel.

Neither the Americans nor the Israelis had expected Damascus to round off this troop concentration so fast. It was taken for granted that Damascus would wait to the spring of 2009, after the rainy season. However, president Bashar Assad saw two advantages in going ahead before the Nov. 4 US presidential election:

First, Israel would be unlikely to strike in the days leading up to the US election and, second, Damascus would present the new man in the White House with a fait accompli.

The first concentration of 6-8,000 Syrian troops was disclosed in DEBKA-Net-Weekly 367 on Oct. 3 when two Syrian commando brigades of the 4th Mechanized Division took up positions along 2 km of the El Kebir River which marks that sector of the border - opposite northern Lebanon and its largest town of Tripoli.

Then, last week, Damascus consigned the 12th Mechanized Division to the border of the Lebanese Beqaa Valley and its central mountains, so completing the encirclement.

Syrian military positions now range from points opposite the northern Lebanese town of Al Qaa on Mt. Hermil to points further south up to the Massena border crossing 50 km north of Beirut. The Syrian 4th and 12th Divisions abut on the 10th Division ranged opposite South Lebanon and the disputed Shebaa Farms enclave. The military chain continues with the 14th commando division positioned on the Syrian slopes of Mt Hermon opposite Israeli military positions.

Not only are Lebanon’s borders enclosed, but Syria, in conjunction with Iran, has also established a military presence inside Lebanon. In the summer, they emplaced radar stations on the tall Lebanese peaks of Mt. Sannine and Barukh of the central mountain range, giving them a detailed view of every move on Lebanese territory, in northern Israel and on the eastern Mediterranean.

All these movements were performed with a nod and a wink from Washington.

Three years after forcing Syria to quit Lebanon, the Bush administration was ready to okay Syria’s massed troop concentration on Lebanese borders. Permission was granted in an apparently cursory meeting between Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem on Sept. 27 at UN Center in New York.

Damascus counted this as validation of its drive for restored domination of Lebanon by dint of its military.

Washington also satisfied itself that the deal promised major profits:

1. The Assad government sounded willing for the first time to obstruct Hizballah and hold up its supplies of military hardware.

Syria’s 4th and 12 Divisions are in position for blocking Hizballah’s primary smuggling routes.

2. It was inferred that Damascus was at last beginning, albeit two years late, to honor UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which banned arms supplies to Hizballah as part of the ceasefire which ended the Israel-Lebanon war. Syria and Iran mocked that resolution for two years by smuggling weapons in bulk to the Shiite terrorists.

3. Damascus’ implied willingness to go against Hizballah was taken by Washington as a measure of Assad’s readiness to stand up to Iran at present - and break away in the future.

4. And might not that willingness be extended to embrace Tehran’s other terrorist protégés, the Palestinian Hamas and Jihad Islami, both of whose headquarters have long been welcome in Damascus?

DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s Middle East sources stressed that, for the time being, all these exciting benefits are no more than fond hopes, which the Bush administration cannot hope to see fully developed in the short months remaining of its term - if at all. Bashar Assad’s relations with the United States are littered with a trail of broken promises, as Rice’s predecessor, Colin Powell, can affirm.

Nevertheless, the secretary of state keeps pushing on.

DEBKAfile’s Washington and Middle East sources reveal that the message she addressed to Hamas’ political chief Khaled Meshaal in Damascus was the first communication ever from a senior US official to the Palestinian fundamentalists, which Washington lists as a terrorist group. Rice even complimented Hamas for halting its missile and rocket fire into Israel and voiced the hope that Palestinian organization would go further and join Palestinian-Israeli diplomacy.

After Moussa Abu Marzouk on Oct. 22, spilled the beans of what he called American recognition of his organization, the state department issued a hurried denial and set up an interview for Assistant Secretary of State David Welch with the London-based Saudi paper Shawq al Awsat.

The interviewer, Manal Lutfi, pushed hard for an admission of the US-Syrian détente, citing examples. But Welch stuck to his guns: “…I say there is no revision of our policies towards Syria.”

Formally speaking, he was truthful. However, the groundwork has certainly been laid for the major revision which he denied. Syrian troops have been allowed to openly close in on Lebanon without a demurral from the Bush administration. Washington has been caught out communicating with Bashar Assad’s extremist Palestinian guest, Hamas, for the first time.

The outcome of these preliminaries - milestone in themselves – will no doubt come to light only when a new president sits in the White House and Israel has a new government after a general election early next year.

asprinzl · Post by **asprinzl** » 26 Oct 2008 21:21

Got this last night from people I know well. according to this source...Some one or some entity may have tried to kill Ahmadinejad by poisoning him. Could be due to factional infighting within the ruling elites, could be Mossad, could be Iranian opposition, could be pro-Sunni Arab attempt.
Take it however you may. The ME is rife with rumours and this could be one of that or it may be true.
Avram

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 26 Oct 2008 23:37

Interesting indeed Avram. Thanks.
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Eye witnesses are quoted by Syrian state TV as describing four US helicopters striking a house in Al-Sukkariya near the Iraqi border killing 9 people and injuring four. Two landed and 8 US soldiers disembarked for the attack before the helicopters took off. The targets were reportedly Islamic extremists, al Qaeda. There has been no US comment on the incident. If confirmed, it would be the first time that US forces had operated on Syrian soil.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 27 Oct 2008 03:30

US helicopter air-ground raid kills eight inside Syria

Eye witnesses are quoted as describing four US helicopters from Iraq striking a house in al Qaim 17 km from the Iraqi border Sunday night, Oct. 26, and killing 8 people. Eight US soldiers are said to have disembarked for the attack before being flown out. There has been no US comment on the incident.

Asked if the incident was compatible with Israel’s talks with Syria, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni commented: Damascus must stop aiding al Qaeda as well two other terrorist groups, Hizballah and Hamas.

The US and Iraqi charge d'affaires in Damascus have been called to the Syrian foreign ministry to hear the Syrian protest and demand an explanation. They claim four children and their father were killed.

DEBKAfile’s military sources report previous US strikes on Syrian soil in 2004 and 2005 targeting al Qaeda exit points to Iraq. These attacks were discontinued for three years. Sunday’s operation was an extension of the US-Iraqi offensive to purge the northern Iraqi town of Mosul and their northern Syria havens of al Qaeda elements, the last two strong bastions the jihadists still retain in the region.

Al Qaeda fighters captured by the US military in and around Mosul in recent days revealed that the flow of arms, fighters, cash and explosives from Syria to Iraq continues unabated. This, notwithstanding Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem’s assurance to US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice that Damascus had halted this traffic when they met in New York in September. The US military struck after catching Syria back at the game in breach of its pledge.

DEBKAfile’s political sources link the operation in northern Syria with the US presidential campaign 10 days before voting. Both candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain, will no doubt comment and if the attacks continue they could become a focal campaign theme.

US cross-border incursions from Afghanistan firing missiles from drones at Taliban and al Qaeda havens in Pakistan are ongoing. The latest attack took place Sunday night killing up to 20 insurgents.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Oct 2008 23:04

Unnamed US officials named a Syrian network that funneled fighters, weapons and cash into Iraq. The Syrians called the raid a terror operation.

And another question: What made George Bush go for it now, just before his exit, when for years the US kept its hands off?

US cultural center and American school is closed in Damascus. Iranians are leaning hard on the Baghdad government to denounce the American incursion into Syria fearing it will pave the way for a possible US strike against Revolutionary Guards bases in Iran.

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New Iranian naval base can block Strait of Hormuz, confront Israeli subs

Iran’s naval chief Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state radio Tuesday, Oct,.28, that the base could be used to block the entry of any “enemy” into the Persian Gulf....
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The new base is in the port town of Jask on Iran’s southeastern coast opposite the point where the Gulf of Oman flows into the strait.

1. A naval presence opposite the Gulfs of Oman and Aden, where Israeli maintains Dolphin submarines. For Tehran their presence is part of Israel’s belligerent posture opposite Iran.

2. Intensified military involvement in Sudan on the Red Sea.

3. As a counterweight for the US, NATO and Russian naval might building up off the pirate-ridden Somali coast. From Tehran, this build-up looks like a potential threat to its maritime supply lanes and oil export routes.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 30 Oct 2008 03:50

X-Posted.. Maybe Arab states will get better inspiration from India....

bala wrote:India…Again
by Hussein Shobokshi

A Businessman and prominent columnist. Mr. Shobokshi hosts the weekly current affairs program Al Takreer on Al Arabiya, and in 1995, he was chosen as one of the "Global Leaders for Tomorrow" by the World Economic Forum. He received his B.A. in Political Science and Management from the University of Tulsa.

Once again, India has shown us the difference, in a practical manner, between a nation that works and an idle nation.

We have India launching its space shuttle – produced entirely by the hands, brains and technology of India – to the moon, joining the exclusive space club. The incredible India experience continues to captivate those who monitor its developments; it is the biggest of the world’s democracies reaping the fruits of its labor such as paying exceptional attention to education, training, and the bringing together of diverse segments of its society towards one outlook, motivated by the economy of knowledge that made India and its economic model a clear emblem of that.

All this took place whilst its Pakistani “neighbor” continues its foolish tribal and sectarian wrangling and the chain of assassinations and car bombs that claim innocent lives through indiscriminate savagery.

The developing world is watching in astonishment and wonder to the extent of envy and jealousy (where some arrogant people belittle India’s accomplishments expressed in a racist, despicable and reckless manner) as India transforms from a developing country of the Third World to join the major industrial countries, and this is well-deserved.

India today has transformed into a center of gravity and the backbone of the modern world of technology. One of India’s businessmen owns one of the biggest steel producing companies in the world and it is also home to one of the world’s most important companies, the Tata Group, which owns a number of major companies and hotels around the world. Today India has taken the lead role in cinematic production and its authors continue to receive the most prominent of awards.

The Arab world should carefully and seriously examine the Indian experience and how it largely benefited from its advantages because it presents important and eye-catching examples of what can be accomplished. The Indian model is similar to the Arab situation; there are the same challenges in development and the same social, political, cultural and economic challenges without doubt.

India still has some surprises in store; the anticipated Nano car produced by Tata is ready to be launched and presented to the world as the cheapest car in the world therefore giving scores of people from the world over the chance to own a car for a cheap price.

Universities, schools and technical institutes in India continue to improve their capabilities and programs to become more competitive and effective in transforming India into one of the most important elements of efficiency, success and excellence and its “price” in the labor market is higher than that of many of its counterparts of the old industrial world. There is no doubt that in Bangladesh, Pakistan, (and even Sri Lanka and Nepal) there are regrets that these countries are not on the same level as India and do not compare with its economic growth as the gap is widening between them and the motherland.

Yet again, the Indian option is about equality and education for all. They reaped a glory that the world envies.

The Indian example continues to amaze; it is a fascinating success story that deserves to be told…more importantly it deserves to be learnt from.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 30 Oct 2008 04:16

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 31 Oct 2008 16:51

X Post

A possible reason why US hit Syria:
Bashar wanted to re-start "Sunni" terror in Iraq, to gain a foothold in the country independent of Iran. The US op killed one of the key guys in the Damascus game plan. Both Tehran and Syria are collaborating to get rid of the US-Iraq pact.

Syria has pulled back a division from the Iraqi border and have opened it up for terrorists to cross over and return after staging attacks. US may retaliate with increased attacks inside Syria.

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 31 Oct 2008 21:34

America's interests: a bedside briefing
Martin Kramer made these remarks at a symposium on "After Bush: America's Agenda in the Middle East," convened by Middle East Strategy at Harvard (MESH) at Harvard University on September 23

I've already prepared my briefing for the next president. No point in waiting until he calls me at 3 a.m., which he certainly will. Of course, I could leak it then, but Bob Woodward is already working on his next book, so I might as well leak it now. Here we go.

Thank you for the White House invitation, Mr. President. You don't know how much I appreciate this appointment as your advisor—my talents were wasting away in that think tank. You've asked me to give you a ten-minute briefing on our interests in the Middle East, in a way even a community organizer or small-town mayor or U.S. senator can understand. You've asked for an unvarnished telling—no lipstick. No problem. Here's what you need to know.

The primary U.S. interest in the Middle East is the free flow of energy from beneath its soil to the United States and to our partners elsewhere. The United States is the largest consumer of oil in the world—it consumes a quarter of all world production. We consume twice as much per capita as the other industrialized countries, twelve times as much as the rest of the world. We're the biggest consumers of energy in the history of humankind. The Middle East is home to 60 percent of the world's remaining oil; the United States has less than 2 percent. Transferring energy from there to here—and elsewhere to people who depend on us—is our primary interest in the Middle East.

And within the Middle East, Mr. President, the epicenter of our interest is the Persian Gulf. The name "Persian Gulf" is a very old one, you'll find it on every map. But it might as well be called Lake Michigan, so integral is it to the lubrication of American life. This means that the U.S. must secure the Gulf, and can't allow any part of it to be dominated by any other power, global or regional.

But in the Middle East there are people as well as oil, and they have more than the usual share of pathologies. A prime U.S. objective, then, has been to isolate the energy flow from those pathologies, by deflecting or combatting or alleviating them.

The preferred way—the American way—had been to find allies among the rulers, and to work with them discreetly, from off-shore and over the horizon. This technique worked for many of your predecessors. The American oil companies ran the oil fields in Saudi Arabia, American advisors assisted the Shah of Iran, arms sales kept clients happy, and there was no need to place an American boot on the ground. Almost every shore of the Gulf was friendly.

But beginning thirty years ago, the Gulf began to heat up. Vast oil wealth began to feed delusions of grandeur and hatred of America, in three forms. Let's call them, for short, Khomeinism in Iran, Saddamism in Iraq, and Bin Ladenism in Saudi Arabia. Iran's revolution, Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and 9/11, were all Gulf-generated push-back against our primacy. Sometimes they cancelled each other out—as in the Iran-Iraq war—but by 2003, our grip on the Gulf was loosening. We had two of the three big states, Iran and Iraq, under a weak "dual containment," and the third, Saudi Arabia, was being pressured by jihadists to get us out. When the United States finally invaded Iraq in 2003, we were in search of a foothold. Instead, we almost sank into quicksand. But we've pulled ourselves out, and you should be careful not to fritter away our advantage in Iraq. There aren't many alternative platforms.

Mr. President, our problem in the Gulf remains acute. Oil is a finite resource, demand for it is growing, and we'll continue to have to expend energy to get energy. Unfortunately, our Gulf allies are really dependencies, and can't do the fighting for us. In Iraq, we've destroyed Saddamism and dealt a blow to Bin Ladenism. But Khomeinism lives, and all those who resent us in the region are rallying to Iran, which promises to succeed where others have failed, by acquiring a nuclear weapon.

The thing to remember about Iran, Mr. President, is that it was once an empire. The classical authors and early European mapmakers called it the "Persian Gulf" for a reason. What we face now is an Iran that's determined to erode our position in the Gulf, so that we'll disappear, just as Britain did before us. This is the most formidable of the three challenges we've faced in the Gulf. If Iran does acquire nuclear weapons, the Gulf waters will become almost impossible to chart, the oil states (and Israel) will be unnerved, and our primary interest will be at risk. History may not forgive you, so keep all your options on the table.

Mr. President, you ask how much attention should be devoted to Israel and the Palestinians. Once upon a time, it was thought that Israel versus Arabs was the source of all instability in the Middle East. Israel fought against Arab states in every decade, and in 1973, one of those wars actually harmed our primary interest: the Arabs imposed an oil embargo. The United States since then has worked hard, and successfully, to meliorate that conflict. We did it by upping our support for Israel, thus dissuading Arab states from more war, and bringing Egypt and Jordan to make peace with Israel. For the last thirty-five years, there have been no state-to-state wars involving Israel.

True, there have been a couple of Palestinian "uprisings," and Israel has chased the PLO and Hezbollah across Lebanon. But these skirmishes never rose to a level that would disrupt our primary interest, the energy flow. Fostering an Israeli-Palestinian deal would be a good deed, but its contribution to our overall interests would be marginal, and an attempt to negotiate one would be all-consuming. It could overload your bandwidth, pushing everything else out. In present circumstances, any problem that can be managed without our troops isn't that urgent. Show interest, but don't waste time.

Afghanistan is another perpetual crisis that's resistant to all attempts at resolution. The country itself is of little intrinsic importance, but it does export misery, from drugs to jihadists. Amelioration and containment are probably the best strategies—isolating its pathologies from spreading to Arab countries or Pakistan. But be careful not to portray this as the "good war," because we won't ever deploy enough troops to win it decisively, and we can achieve our limited goals short of that anyway.

One last warning, Mr. President. On the edges of the Middle East, we've relied heavily on two regimes which have been our most consistent partners in hunting jihadists: Musharraf's Pakistan and Mubarak's Egypt. Musharraf is gone, and Mubarak is quite likely to be gone before you leave this office. Pakistan and Egypt aren't as central to our core interests as the Persian Gulf. But if extremists succeed in taking either, temperatures at the core of the Middle East will rise dramatically. (This will be so even if we disarm Pakistan's nukes before the country goes under.) It's difficult to judge the likelihood of such a debacle. But to hedge against the consequences, be prepared to upgrade security ties with Israel and India, which we'll need to absorb and deflect the shock.

Again, Mr. President, it's an honor. I know we'll be seeing a lot of each other. At 3 a.m. Goodnight, sir. Shall I tuck you in?

surinder · Post by **surinder** » 31 Oct 2008 21:44

Johann,

That was a very very interesting way of saying the truths, and a succint too.

Thanks for sharing.

Hitesh · Post by **Hitesh** » 31 Oct 2008 22:58

be prepared to upgrade security ties with Israel and India, which we'll need to absorb and deflect the shock.

This is the part I have a huge problem with. Why should India be the one left holding the bag or be the punching bag after all the stuff that Americans did and created the problem. We should tell America to f*ck off and tell them to clean their own mess.

India has been telling America for years about the dangers of supporting rogue elements of Pakistan and ISI and it fell on deaf ears. We should deflect the shock and make America absorb the brunt of the damage first.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Nov 2008 05:43

Libya offers to host Russian military base: report

Narayanan meets Oman ruler

Atul Aneja

DUBAI:The National Security Adviser, M.K. Narayanan called on the Ruler of Oman, Sultan Qaboos Ibn Said Al Said and Royal Office Minister Gen. Ali bin Majid al Ma’amari on Wednesday.

Mr. Narayanan is on a three-day visit to the Gulf state, which is deepening its economic and security ties with India.

An Indian naval warship has been positioned at Oman’s port of Salalah as part of an effort to tackle piracy in the Gulf of Aden.

PM to visit Oman, Qatar next weekend

Hint that there is likely to be progress to the deal involving India to protect and extend its nuclear umbrella for these Middle Eastern states(Most likely Qatar and Oman) that I reported earlier. MKN spending 3 days in Oman is relatively significant. I am very pleased to see India increasing ties with Oman. India had reportedly already signed a deal with the Omani's stating that in the event of war, Indian Navy can use Omani ports.

sum · Post by **sum** » 02 Nov 2008 15:13

Hint that there is likely to be progress to the deal involving India to protect and extend its nuclear umbrella for these Middle Eastern states(Most likely Qatar and Oman) that I reported earlier.

Hi Shyam, i seem to have missed the posts relating to this topic...Could you please provide some links/info about what you are talking about?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Nov 2008 16:52

Sum, Looks like Archives have been deleted. Briefly, I basically reported that GCC want to hedge their bets away from US/West. They approached several nations, Japan, China, and India, possibly Russia if I remember correctly. India was the best choice. Japan, China politely refused. India offered the Sheikhs a military treaty. Russia refused saying they already have commitments with the certain nations.

The deal involves buying Naval equipment etc from India and also provide a nuclear umbrella for these nations.

GCC military and intelligence officers started meeting with senior Indian security officials to develop the terms of the military pact. Apparently Qatar and Oman have entered into seperate talks with India.

Dick Cheney is also supportive of these pacts apparently.

sum · Post by **sum** » 02 Nov 2008 20:20

India offered the Sheikhs a military treaty. Russia refused saying they already have commitments with the certain nations.

The deal involves buying Naval equipment etc from India and also provide a nuclear umbrella for these nations.

But, wont the nuclear umbrella provide cover against attacks by Israel?
Wont it contradict our super-duper ties with Israel and will the massive Israeli lobby(very influential also as can be seen in the Barak-1 deal case) in MoD allow it to go through?

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 02 Nov 2008 22:01

Good question. Well, that is something that will have to be worked out, this whole issue arose due to the Iran crisis. To be honest, Oman and Qatar are quite liberal, Qatar recently opened up themselves to trade with Israel. Rumours were afloat a few years ago that the Omani's had allowed the Israeli's to use Omani ports. Neither of these countries at present pose a threat to Israeli security, the west has significant assets in these countries, e.g Al Udeid AFB.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 03 Nov 2008 09:38

Hitesh wrote:
be prepared to upgrade security ties with Israel and India, which we'll need to absorb and deflect the shock.
This is the part I have a huge problem with. Why should India be the one left holding the bag or be the punching bag after all the stuff that Americans did and created the problem. We should tell America to f*ck off and tell them to clean their own mess.

India has been telling America for years about the dangers of supporting rogue elements of Pakistan and ISI and it fell on deaf ears. We should deflect the shock and make America absorb the brunt of the damage first.

Yes! we must tell Americal to f*ck off and clean their own mess.

Then what? What should we do if America leaves A-stan without cleaning thier mess? That is the fundamental question here.

One way to see it would be, to be proactive and help America in cleaning its mess. Because this mess is closer to our home than America, which is in another town. If we have to clean this mess on our own, it will take more energy and time....

JMT...

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 03 Nov 2008 17:39

The problem is that cleaning up this mess does not mean India will have primary influence in Afghanisthan post-cleanup. The US/NATO has NO intention of leaving afghanisthan alone in the long term, AFAICT.

sum · Post by **sum** » 03 Nov 2008 21:07

shyamd wrote:Good question. Well, that is something that will have to be worked out, this whole issue arose due to the Iran crisis. To be honest, Oman and Qatar are quite liberal, Qatar recently opened up themselves to trade with Israel. Rumours were afloat a few years ago that the Omani's had allowed the Israeli's to use Omani ports. Neither of these countries at present pose a threat to Israeli security, the west has significant assets in these countries, e.g Al Udeid AFB.

Errr... IF the GCC is such buddies with Israel, whom is the nuke cover against?
If it is Iran, India has good relations with Iran too and would it bother crossing swords with Iran over the GCC?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 03 Nov 2008 22:55

sum wrote:
shyamd wrote:Good question. Well, that is something that will have to be worked out, this whole issue arose due to the Iran crisis. To be honest, Oman and Qatar are quite liberal, Qatar recently opened up themselves to trade with Israel. Rumours were afloat a few years ago that the Omani's had allowed the Israeli's to use Omani ports. Neither of these countries at present pose a threat to Israeli security, the west has significant assets in these countries, e.g Al Udeid AFB.
Errr... IF the GCC is such buddies with Israel, whom is the nuke cover against?
If it is Iran, India has good relations with Iran too and would it bother crossing swords with Iran over the GCC?

GCC wants to avoid the situation of TSP begging at missile point!

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Nov 2008 00:54

sum wrote:
shyamd wrote:Good question. Well, that is something that will have to be worked out, this whole issue arose due to the Iran crisis. To be honest, Oman and Qatar are quite liberal, Qatar recently opened up themselves to trade with Israel. Rumours were afloat a few years ago that the Omani's had allowed the Israeli's to use Omani ports. Neither of these countries at present pose a threat to Israeli security, the west has significant assets in these countries, e.g Al Udeid AFB.
Errr... IF the GCC is such buddies with Israel, whom is the nuke cover against?
If it is Iran, India has good relations with Iran too and would it bother crossing swords with Iran over the GCC?

It is mainly due to Iran and protection against Iran. Well, if Iran does go nuclear, they would be classed as a regional threat by India. It remains to be seen what the politico's will decide to do, lot of the negotiation I expect is still ongoing and is being kept secret. So, there are no definet answers to your question.

Oman and Qatar are both not in a position to fight against the Iranians. But they are all worried about Iran going nuclear, and they are being threatened by Iran, that if they support the West, then they will be targetted. So, they want someone who can protect them in the event of war. Oman is also a key trade partner and their leadership are more pro-India than the Iranians.

A clear cost/benefit analysis will need to be done. The GCC is willing to buy a lot of defence equipment from India, in particular naval equipment, if the deal goes through.

vavinash · Post by **vavinash** » 04 Nov 2008 07:02

I am not against or for Iran but I don't see why India should be protecting countries that have british or american bases against Iran. Though a base for keeping some ships to monitor the persian gulf and red sea would be good.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 04 Nov 2008 09:54

SMH.COM.AU - another feather for religion of peace

Rape victim, 13, stoned to death in stadium

November 4, 2008

AN ISLAMIST rebel administration in Somalia ordered that a girl, 13, be stoned to death for adultery after the child's father reported that she was raped by three men.

Amnesty International said the al-Shabab militia, which controls the city of Kismayo, arranged for 50 men to stone Aisha Ibrahim Duhulow in front of about 1000 spectators. A truck laden with stones was brought to the stadium for the killing. Amnesty said the girl struggled with her captors and had to be forcibly carried into the stadium. Amnesty said: "Inside the stadium, militia members opened fire when some of the witnesses to the killing attempted to save her life, and shot dead a boy who was a bystander."

The girl's father told Amnesty that when he tried to report her rape to the militia the child was accused by the administration of adultery and detained.

None of the men accused of the rape was arrested. The girl was earlier reported by witnesses as being 23 years old.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 04 Nov 2008 12:06

Nov 4, 2008 0:17 | Updated Nov 4, 2008 2:27
Analysis: A Middle East message to the new American leader
By BRENDA GAZZAR

Dear Mr. President, congratulations! Not only have you inherited a global economic crisis unmatched since the Great Depression but you have also inherited an increasingly tumultuous and more radicalized Middle East.

Experts use words like "unilateral" and "preemptive" to describe America's foreign policy in the region in the last eight years. Some simply describe US President George W. Bush's approach as "our way or the highway."

Whether or not you choose a more multilateral foreign policy style, you will certainly have to contend with some pressing issues that have arisen or become exacerbated over the past eight years. Thorny issues like the war in Iraq, where more than 4,000 Americans have been killed with no clear end or resolution in sight. Issues such as Iran, which appears intent on pursuing a nuclear weapons program against the wishes of the majority of the world.

And you will have to contend with them at a time that America's global and regional reputation has taken a blow as an honest, neutral and even-handed player in the Middle East. Indeed, many in the region today see the US as a country that only pursues its own interests at the expense of others.

Here are just a few of your challenges:

# Iran: This is considered your top foreign policy issue. Your challenge is to figure out how to convince Iran in the next year or two that it shouldn't go forward with developing a nuclear weapon. Sanctions have not worked due to a lack of cooperation by nations like China and Russia. Bush has been very explicit about using force as an option in dealing with Iran. However, some argue that Bush has limited America's options by leading with the threat of military action rather than by using all available tools, such as negotiations or incentives.

Ultimately, however, tough decisions would have to be made in case these tools fail.

# Iraq: Your challenge in Iraq is to diminish the American presence while keeping the country and the region stable. You know that any sort of withdrawal will neither be quick or easy. Some experts, such as StepMiddle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, argue that the key would be to take a regional approach.

In addition to finding a viable political settlement among the various factions inside Iraq, bringing other nations into the fold - countries affected by the conflict such as Syria, Iran and Turkey - is necessary for any long-term solution, he said. "I think that's really what has been missing in the Bush approach; a truly regional perspective."

# Israeli/Palestinian crisis: It appears that neither side can resolve the conflict on its own and some kind of international intervention - particularly American intervention - is needed to help bring peace to the region. But American mediation efforts have failed thus far and some say foreign policy here should be reassessed. The Arab peace initiative could well be part of any future peace deal. However, any peace broker must contend with new and rapidly changing realities here: including upcoming Israeli elections and the protracted Fatah-Hamas divide in the West Bank and Gaza.

# Syria: Syria is looking to end years of difficult international isolation while maintaining regime stability. It is counting on a new US administration that will support its peace talks with Israel. But Syria also seems reluctant to sever its ties with Iran and militants in Lebanon and the PA. Your challenge will be to help Syria - perhaps through a mixture of sticks and carrots - to end its unsavory ties with extremists and to disassociate itself from radical Shi'ite elements in Lebanon and in Iran.

# Egypt: President Hosni Mubarak turned 80 earlier this year, raising questions about his succession and whether or not there could be a political vacuum in this country of some 80 million. Egypt is one of America's strongest and most stable allies in the Middle East, but questions remain about what role, if any, Islamist groups would play in its next government.

Avinash R · Post by **Avinash R** » 04 Nov 2008 13:25

'Mossad spy' tied to Mughniyeh hit
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite? ... 5199636945

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Nov 2008 15:03

Avinash R wrote:'Mossad spy' tied to Mughniyeh hit
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite? ... 5199636945

Lebanon reportedly unmasks “Mossad” network spying also on Syria

DEBKAfile Special Report

November 1, 2008, 11:29 AM (GMT+02:00)
Mughniyeh's bombed car in Damascus

The Lebanese arm confirms media report Saturday, Nov. 1, that the head of a suspected Mossad spy ring was picked up at his home in the Lebanese Beqaa Valley W. Lebanon, with several family members, after lengthy surveillance in Lebanon and Syria He is not named in the report. They ring is said to have operated since 1980.

According to the report, a search of their Mitsubishi Pajero turned up a long-angle camera for detailed photography of facial features and vehicle number plates. His neighbors reported they had seen his car parked main highways between Shtaura in the Beqaa Valley and the Lebanese-Syrian border terminal at Massena. They said he had been staking out Lebanese, Syrian, and Palestinian movements. In recent months, he allegedly focused on Hizballah forces and leaders.

A state of the art communications gear was found in the suspected ringleader’s home.

Among his activities, the “agent” is suspected of keeping watch on sensitive parts of Damascus and of mapping the high-end Kfar Sousa district where Hizballah’s military chief, Imad Mughniyeh, was killed last February.

Lebanese and Syrian investigators are digging for a direct connection between the alleged Mossad spy ring and the assassination of Mughniyeh and other persons in the two countries.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 04 Nov 2008 21:50

vavinash wrote:I am not against or for Iran but I don't see why India should be protecting countries that have british or american bases against Iran. Though a base for keeping some ships to monitor the persian gulf and red sea would be good.

The Crown Prince of Qatar asked for this in 1993 and on not getting it asked for US protection.

These states have historical memories of Kingdoms of Hindusthan/Bharat which were their protectors from 'pirate' chasers etc since pre-Islamic times. So that is one reason.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 04 Nov 2008 23:54

Looks like the deal has been cemented or is very close to completion. Excellent news!

India to ink pact with Qatar

In an attempt to give greater depth to her maritime security, India is expected to sign a strategic partnership agreement with Qatar during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s four day visit to Oman and Qatar beginning this Saturday. The agreement ,which will include cooperation in defence and security matters, assumes significance in view of the fact that Qatar will become only the second country in the Gulf region after Oman to have such a pact with India. The agreement with Qatar will include joint exercises, particularly maritime exercises and training of officers.
The Prime Minister will be the first Indian PM to visit Qatar. Last year, then Defence secretary Shekhar Dutt had visited the nation and had identified areas for cooperation, including training of personnel, joint exercises and service-to-service information sharing. This was followed by a high level delegation from Qatar, which visited several defence locations in India and three areas, including vacancies for Qatar’s officers in training courses at higher military education institutions, leasing of artillery firing ranges for practice and training, hiring of firing ranges for mechanised forces, were identified for cooperation.

While Naval officers from Qatar have already been training in India, the signing of the agreement will institutionalise the cooperation and set up annual programmes, official sources said.

India has defence co-operation agreements with US, UK, France, South Africa, Australia, Singapore, Germany and Japan. The PM’s visit to the Middle East is long overdue and is intended to dispel the perception that that India’s foreign policy is skewed towards US.

PM’s Qatar, Oman visits to send signal of better ties with Gulf nations

Huma Siddiqui
..........
The India-GCC FTA will be raised during the visit, as Oman is hosting GCC summit in Muscat later this month, and the India-GCC FTA was first mooted by Oman, officials pointed out.
................
Indian ambassador to Oman, Anil Wadhwa told FE, “The political relations between India and Oman are guided by mutual respect and commonality of views on major regional and international issues.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Nov 2008 00:00

Hail PVNR! A long time coming.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 Nov 2008 00:23

Ramanaji, do you have the archives of the previous threads somewhere? I am looking for what I actually reported in Dec 2007/Jan 08, so that I can refresh my(and others) memory on details of the deal. Thanks