PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

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zlin
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by zlin »

Pepsi to Invest $1 Billion In China
By BETSY MCKAY

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1225735 ... lenews_wsj

PepsiCo Inc. plans to spend $1 billion in China over the next four years, extending its investment in one of its fastest-growing markets as the troubled economy cuts into sales and profit in the U.S.

The Purchase, N.Y., maker of Pepsi-Cola, Lay's potato chips and other snacks and drinks said it will use the money to build more plants, specifically in western and interior areas of China; expand local research and development; and build a bigger sales force to expand distribution. Pepsi also will use the funds for marketing and to develop products tailored to Chinese consumers.

Image
Singha
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Singha »

a shanghai shipyard has delivered a 318,000 dwt VLCC. said to be
the worlds largest.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by vina »

Singhaji. Absolutely terrible timing by Panda of course :(( :(( !. History repeating itself, now as a farce. Earlier, just before oil shock in the 70s, crude carriers got bigger and bigger , reaching something like 550,000 dwt , ships a half kilometer long. However, just as it was about to be launched, the oil shock hit, prices went up, demand crashed, world economy went head first into recession, and then ship owners refused to take delivery, the ship probably never made money and many of these ULCCs were simply scrapped within a few years.

Check out Knock Nevis and also the french Baillus class supertankers.
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Post by Singha »

yes I am aware of the ex jahre viking being larger but now a floating
storage tank in dubai.

anyway its not much of a loss to the panda. there are numerous more
lossy projects but important for strategic capability buildup. what they
have proved is they can build as big as the japanese uber-shipyards like
Ishikawajima-Harima...no doubt backward integration with domestic
suppliers to supply onboard eqpt is occuring. they would be cleaning
and stealing as much as possible from zorya, pielstick, wartsila, cummins as they can on the side as usual.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by vina »

Hmm. More than the large crude carriers themselves (which themselves really are no big deal, you are right about about the "strategic" part though) , I think this is far more important "strategically" . Looks like Panda has sold 5 ARJ-21s to GE. Sure, GE as the sole engine supplier, probably has that written into it's contract, but still very significant nevertheless.
The New York Times
Printer Friendly Format Sponsored By

November 3, 2008
China Aircraft Maker Sells 5 Self - Developed Jets to GE
By REUTERS

Filed at 11:42 p.m. ET

ZHUHAI, China (Reuters) - China's main aircraft maker has agreed to sell five ARJ21 jets with an option for 20 more to U.S. conglomerate General Electric's <GE.N> aircraft leasing arm, in China's first major overseas deal for the aircraft, with an estimated value of around $750 million.

China's main aircraft maker, The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (CACC), signed the deal with GE Commercial Aviation Services on Tuesday at the Zhuhai airshow in south China, they said in a joint statement.

GE Commercial preliminary agreed in March with CACC to buy five ARJ21 jets with an option to buy another 20.

CACC, which developed the ARJ21, was incorporated earlier this year after the merger of China's two state aircraft makers AVIC I and AVIC II.

Orders for the ARJ21 jet, unveiled last December and due for commercial deliveries from the third quarter of 2009, have already exceeded 100, mostly from domestic carriers.

General Electric and Parker Hannifin Corp <PH.N> are among companies which supply parts for the ARJ21 jet.

(Reporting by James Pomfret; Writing by Alison Leung; editing by Anne Marie Roantree)
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Post by Avinash R »

Tainting of Milk Is Open Secret in China
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1225673 ... lenews_wsj
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Avinash R »

Despite Evidence to the Contrary, China Claims Melamine-tainted Eggs Rare
http://www.newsinferno.com/archives/4121
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by wrdos »

Yuan Little Changed as China Seeks to Prevent Economic Slump

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 5LQ7LdVc.Y

By Judy Chen

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The yuan was little changed against the dollar on speculation China is keeping the currency trading within a narrow range to prevent the economy slumping further.

The world's fourth-largest economy may expand 5.8 percent this quarter, the slowest pace in 18 years, as investment weakens, according to Credit Suisse AG. Non-deliverable forwards show the yuan will fall 1.6 percent to 6.95 per dollar in the next 12 months. The contracts showed traders three months ago expected the currency to gain to 6.5920 within a year.

``The central bank is strongly determined to keep the yuan's spot rate stable, at least for the rest of this year,'' said Liu Dongliang, a Shenzhen-based foreign-exchange analyst at China Merchants Bank Co., the country's sixth-largest lender. ``But offshore traders may increase bets on depreciation as China's growth will probably be slower than expected.''

The yuan was little changed at 6.8397 a dollar as of 9:40 a.m. in Shanghai, from 6.8381 yesterday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. It has traded between 6.8125 and 6.8591 versus the dollar in the past month.

Credit Suisse cut its 2008 GDP growth forecast to 8.7 percent from 9.3 percent, Tao Dong, the Hong Kong-based chief Asia economist for the bank, said in an e-mailed note yesterday. The estimate for 2009 fell to 7.2 percent from 8.8 percent.

China's growth hasn't slipped below 6 percent since 1990, Bloomberg data show.

To contact the reporters on this story: Judy Chen in Shanghai at [email protected]
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Post by wrdos »

China plane-makers target aviation giants as airshow opens
November 4, 2008, 5:58 pm

http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/5121 ... how-opens/

ZHUHAI, China (AFP) - China's only international airshow opened here on Tuesday as the host nation looked to take another step on its ambitious journey to rival the global players of the aerospace industry.

Around 600 civil and military manufacturers, suppliers and designers have gathered in the southern city of Zhuhai for the biennial Airshow China, which lasts until Sunday.

The list of exhibitors was headed by the two manufacturing giants of the industry, Boeing of the United States and Europe's Airbus , but China was also expected to announce a landmark overseas sale of homemade commercial planes.

The Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (CACC) was expected to confirm it has sold 25 of its jets to a US company, thought to be General Electric's leasing unit, according to state media reports.

The firm has designed China's first homemade jet, the 70-seater ARJ21 -- it stands for Advanced Regional Jet for the 21st Century -- and reports have said the contract will be worth 735 million dollars.

"To fly Chinese large aircraft in the blue sky is not just the will of the government, but the whole nation," CACC's president Jin Zhuanglong told an aviation conference in Zhuhai on Monday.

Lin Zuoming, president of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, a key backer of CACC, highlighted the ambition of the nascent industry.

"The goal for AVIC is to realise 1,000 billion yuan (145 billion US dollars) of revenue sales by 2017 and (be) close to becoming one of the world-class aviation industry players," he told the same conference.

AVIC plans to acquire a foreign aircraft manufacturer to strengthen its development capabilities, the state-run China Daily newspaper reported Tuesday, citing Tan Weidong, president of subsidiary AVIC General Airplane Company.

An acquisition agreement was likely to be signed by the end of this year, Tan said, without identifying the foreign company.

Laurence Barron, president of Airbus China, said his firm welcomed competition from Chinese manufacturers, but added it would be a long time before they vied for global dominance.

"It is going to be a tough challenge," Barron told AFP in an interview.

"But we have seen China meet its challenges, particularly in space. We should not underestimate their will and their ability, and the fact that they are prepared to look at it as a long-term objective."

Boeing and Airbus remain bullish about the long-term demand for new aircraft in China despite the global financial meltdown .

There are early signs China has not escaped the drop-off that has hit the global industry, with both analysts and airlines warning of a "cold winter" of slowing passenger demand.

However, Boeing research released last week estimated China will need 3,710 new commercial planes worth 390 billion dollars over the next 20 years.

Airbus is also optimistic, but will not be announcing any major new deals at Zhuhai, Barron said, although he added that was normal for Chinese airshows.

In 2007, China's air traffic soared 16.8 percent to 387.6 million passenger trips, on the back of 16.7 percent growth in 2006, state media reported.

The demand has sparked a similar boom in airport construction, with around 100 new airports planned by 2020.
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Chinese exporters struggling amid global financial crisis
By Diao Ying (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-11-04 07:58

Cookware seller Qu Yanpeng does not have to open a newspaper or turn on the TV to understand the impact of the global financial crisis. She could tell from the lack of visitors to her booth at a recent trade fair.

Qu, a sales manager for well-known Chinese cookware brand Supor, said that she had less than 20 clients on the first day of the ongoing Canton Fair, as opposed to about 100 on previous occasions.

She was echoed by Cloyce D. Palmer, a buyer of agricultural equipment from the United States. Palmer said businesspeople from his own country were conspicuous by their absence from China's largest trade fair. In addition, he had no plans to buy anything this year, since US distributors cancelled their orders before his trip.

This reflects how China's manufacturing sector is feeling the impact of the financial crisis as demand from developed economies shrinks. Although exports remain robust, the growth rate has declined, and fears mount that the crisis may spread to non-financial sectors.

According to statistics released by the National Statistics Bureau, China's foreign trade reached $1.97 trillion for the first three quarters, up 25.2 percent year-on-year. However, the 22.3 percent year-on-year export growth is 2.8 percentage points lower than last year.

Wang Zixian, a researcher with the Ministry of Commerce, estimated that actual export growth for the first three quarters has actually declined to single digits if other factors such as export price increases and exchange rates are taken into account.

"This is a big risk for a country like China that is heavily dependent on exports," Wang said in a recent interview. "The fundamentals of the macro economy will get hit if there is an impact on exports."

The authorities have adjusted policies in order to maintain the stability of export growth. On Sunday, export tax rebates increased for more than 3,000 products, including textile and garments, the worst hit, and high value-added electrical and mechanical products.

Another option for worried entrepreneurs is to turn to the domestic market, which remains robust.

Retail sales rose 22 percent to 7.79 trillion yuan in the first nine months, up 6.1 percentage points year-on-year.

Therefore, life is easier for firms with a large domestic market. Qu from Supor said that although the firm's exports have been affected, its overall business will not suffer much since its major market is within China. According to the company, its domestic sales soared 36 percent in the first half of this year, while exports rose 15.9 percent.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by svinayak »

The hong Kong chinese I know told me that there is lot of suicides in China after the financial collapse
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by abhischekcc »

Here's a prediction from me - an intra party coup is going to occur in China.

In fact, the maneuvering has been going on for some time now.
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China's economic miracle fading fast
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=940408

Duncan Mavin, Hong Kong, Financial Post Published: Friday, November 07, 2008

China's economic miracle is deteriorating much quicker than most observers had expected, and not all the blame can be pinned on the global financial crisis. Beijing should also shoulder some of the responsibility for China's slowdown as central government policy has played a key role in the country's economic weakness, said an influential China analyst Friday.

"Yes, global imbalances are partly to blame. However, it is domestic factors that have largely contributed to the sudden worsening in the data," said Ben Simpfendorfer, China economist with Royal Bank of Scotland in Hong Kong.

After Beijing introduced measures to tighten credit controls in late 2007, some Chinese firms were already complaining about financial difficulties, well before the global credit crunch spilled over into Asia, Mr. Simpfendorfer noted.

Officials in Beijing, meanwhile, were distracted by the National People's Congress in March, which resulted in a reshuffle of top policymakers, and by two natural disasters - severe snowstorms in January and the Sichuan earthquake in May - which diverted government resources.

Soaring commodity prices and the threat of runaway inflation also meant officials were not concentrating on the possibility of a slowdown, while the Beijing Olympics in August - during which time many factories were closed to improve air quality - also distorted data on the underlying economy, Mr. Simpfendorfer said.

"The upshot is that policy was left too tight for too long. Arguably, the [People's Bank of China] might have been cutting interest rates and relaxing credit controls earlier if it wasn't for stubbornly high CPI inflation and a series of successive distractions," he said.

In the third quarter of 2008, China's GDP growth fell to its lowest level since 2003, dropping to 9% after five years of double digit growth. Consumer confidence is also at a low ebb and real estate prices are dropping in many parts of the country. Factories in the Pearl River Delta area - the country's industrial heartland that produces many of the exports for North American consumers - are closing leading to unrest and strikes.

Beijing has already responded to the crisis with a series of fiscal and monetary policy measures. There will be more announcements from the Chinese government in the months ahead, said UBS Investment Research economist Tao Wang.

"We think about 1% of GDP needs to be outright spending on infrastructure, public housing and social programs such as health and education," said the UBS economist. "We believe direct government spending would be more effective in stimulating domestic demand than tax cuts."

Other measures Beijing could be considering include pressuring local governments to provide land at lower prices to real estate developers, or more moves to increase bank lending.

Another area of concern is the possibility of a tendency toward protectionism in the United States following the election of Barack Obama as president. That possibility is "a risk rather than a quick reality," said Michael Hartnett, global emerging market equity strategist at Merrill Lynch.

Ken Courtis, the former head of Goldman Sachs in Asia, said governments throughout the region are "eager" to start the process of economic recovery following months of frustration with the out-going U.S. administration.

"Everywhere in Asia governments are adopting measures to strengthen the financial systems and to stimulate demand," Mr. Courtis said.

Everywhere in the region, governments look to the new opportunity that the [U.S] election has created to get started."
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Chinese cabbies on rampage in Chongqing
(China Daily)
2008-11-04

Taxi drivers smashed car windows and police vehicles as they went on the rampage through Chongqing on Monday, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

Thousands of drivers in the city were protesting over increased operating costs, shortages of natural gas and high traffic fines, it said.

They are also unhappy about the government's lack of effort to stop unlicensed taxis operating in the city, Xinhua claimed.

Some angry drivers smashed the windows of other taxis that tried to cross picket lines, and even pulled drivers out of those vehicles, it said.

At least 20 vehicles, including three police cars, were damaged, the report said.

More than 100 people, mostly taxi drivers, gathered on a street in the city's Jiangbei district at about 11:30 am, Xinhua reported.

"All drivers agreed to stop work, so we damaged the cabs of those who didn't keep their word," one protestor, who refused to give his name, told Xinhua.

Zhang Yujun, vice-director of the municipal transport administration said some drivers wanted to work but were unable to do so because of the protest.

"A lot of taxi drivers didn't want to join the strike, but they were worried their cars would be damaged if they didn't," a driver named Huang was quoted as saying.

The absence of taxis left thousands of commuters in the city stranded, the report said.

The Chongqing transport administration held an emergency meeting after the protest began and asked the taxi drivers to return to work.

Zhou Bo, vice-publicity director of the CPC Chongqing municipal committee said Party officials and the government held several meetings yesterday afternoon and issued a series of measures to get the taxi drivers back to work, the report said without giving any details.

Zhou said police should keep traffic flowing and should penalize unlicensed cab drivers.

He promised an investigation will be held into the price of natural gas.

About 800 drivers returned to work at about 2 pm on Monday.

Chongqing has 16,000 licensed cabs, Xinhua said, with about 9,000 of them operating in the city's urban areas.
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Thousands of Chinese have attacked the police in the southern city of Shenzhen
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... China.html

By Malcolm Moore in Shanghai

Last Updated: 7:05PM GMT 07 Nov 2008

Early reports from the Xinhua state news agency said that the clashes began on Friday afternoon local time and were ongoing.

It offered no further details of the incident mentioned in an "urgent" report, but fights occasionally break out between the authorities and civilian population when people are forcibly moved from their homes or land when it is to be developed for industry.

The clashes in Shenzhen followed just hours after anti-mainland protesters clashed with riot police in Taiwan at the end of a week of talks between Taipei politicians and and envoys from Beijing.

Around 1,000 rioters armed with petrol bombs squared up to more than 2,000 police, backed by water cannons, outside the Grand Hotel, where Chen Yunlin, Beijing's top negotiator on Taiwanese issues, was staying.

Almost 120 policemen were injured and 12 arrests were made.

It was the first visit by a delegation of senior Chinese officials to the island since 1949.

Both sides admitted that relations between China and Taiwan still have a "long way to go".

"There are difficulties ahead, but we will take responsibility," said Mr Chen, before leaving the island.

China still considers Taiwan to be a rogue state which is part of its territory. Mr Chen neatly side-stepped the issue of recognising Taiwan's sovereignty on Thursday by remaining silent when meeting President Ma Yingjeou.

Chinese policy prevented him from addressing Mr Ma as "President", while he was unable to call him simply Mr Ma without paying disrespect to his host.

Agreements signed over the week include the establishment of 108 weekly direct flights over the Taiwan Strait and direct shipping links between 63 Chinese ports and 11 Taiwanese ports which will allow Taiwanese companies to take better advantage of China's export opportunities.

There had been a string of similar protests over the week, and a Chinese television camera crew were attacked while trying to film Mr Chen's progress. On Wednesday, Mr Chen was unable to leave his dinner until 2am because of the crowds of protesters outside his restaurant.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Singha »

shenzhen riot was caused when a checkpoint guy threw a walkie talkie at a
unlicensed biker, causing him to hit a pole and die.

http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking%2B ... 00233.html

his family gathered hundreds of people and trashed the police station.
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Post by Avinash R »

Hundreds clash with police in China's Shenzhen
Sat Nov 8, 2008 5:46am EST
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNew ... BJ20081108

The skirmish in Shenzhen, which lasted from Friday afternoon until early Saturday morning, started when relatives of the motorcyclist carried his body to a local police station and a group of about 30 people smashed items in the station and set off fireworks :?: , according to the report.
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Owners flee as China factories fail
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation ... 6218.story

By Don Lee | Los Angeles Times
November 9, 2008

SHAOXING, China - First, Tao Shoulong burned his company's financial books. Then he sold his golf memberships and disposed of his Mercedes S-600 sedan.

Then he was gone.

Just like that, China's biggest textile dye operation with four factories, a campus the size of 31 football fields, 4,000 workers and debts of at least $200 million was history.

"We're pretty much dead now," said Mao Youming, 38, one of 300 suppliers stiffed in October by Tao's company, Jianglong Group. Lighting a cigarette in a coffee shop, he spoke calmly about the bleak future for his industrial gas business. Tao owed him $850,000, Mao said, about 60 percent of his annual revenue. "We cannot pay our workers' salaries. We are about to be bankrupt, too."

Government statistics show that 67,000 factories were closed in China in the first half of the year, said Cao Jianhai, an industrial economics researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. By year's end, he said, more than 100,000 plants will have closed.

As more factories in China shut down, stories of bosses running away have become familiar, multiplying the damage of China's worst manufacturing decline in at least a decade.

Even before the global financial crisis, factory owners in China were straining under soaring labor and raw-materials costs, an appreciating Chinese currency and tougher legal, tax and environmental requirements. When the credit crunch took hold - prompting Western businesses to slash orders for Chinese goods and bankers to curtail loans to factories - many operations were pushed over the edge.

China's industrial decline is a main factor in the sharp economic slowdown. The nation's gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 9 percent in the third quarter, the lowest in five years and worse than analysts had forecast. China's GDP expanded 11.9 percent last year. Economists worry that the one big remaining engine of global growth is losing steam rapidly.

Chinese leaders are trying to maintain stable but fast growth to control rising joblessness and the risk of political and social turmoil. Last month, Beijing increased tax rebates for many exported goods and pledged to take other steps to spur development, including prodding banks to boost lending to small companies. But many businesses and analysts are not optimistic.

"Honestly, I think whatever measures government would take at the current stage would not turn around this trend," said Ye Hang, an economics professor at Zhejiang University. "The government can only try its best to put out a fire here and there."

In Zhejiang province, south of Shanghai, Ye counted at least six major bankruptcies, including Jianglong; Feiyue Group, China's biggest sewing-machine maker; and Zhejiang Yixin Pharmaceutical Co., among the largest in its industry.

"Of these six, one [owner] committed suicide, one was detained by police and the remaining four all escaped," he said. "I can imagine that in the future there would be more such cases as a result of the chain reaction."

By the official numbers, Chinese exports remained brisk through September, except for a few categories such as apparel, which fell 3 percent in September from the same month in 2007. But many exporters are not making a profit, and others are seeing orders shrink or are starving for cash.

"Don't even mention the U.S. market," said Zhong Shijun, general manager of Foshan City Golden Furniture Co. "Even our European Union market is dropping seriously in the last two months, because the euro is depreciating."

Migrant workers generally do not qualify for unemployment benefits, and although China's bankruptcy laws give unpaid workers priority, that is of little value if owners run away and there are few corporate assets.

Yang Shenggang, 33, had been at a Shenzhen shoe factory for seven years, working his way up from the assembly line, making $50 a month, to become a supervisor earning six times that. This spring, he said, the Hong Kong owner fell behind in paying wages. One morning in September, the plant closed.

"The boss was just gone," Yang said. "I have to get my five months' salary back. My family needs money to eat and live."

Stanley Lau, deputy chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, a trade group with 3,000 members, said he does not know how many owners in Hong Kong have run away.

"I think it's wrong," Lau said. But he added that if a factory operator went by the book, it could take two years to close a shop because of regulations and red tape.

Lau's trade group has estimated that 15 percent of the 70,000 mainland factories run from Hong Kong will close this year. He says many more are likely to close after Chinese New Year in February, when millions of migrant laborers will go home for several days.

"Once workers go home, they can close down the factory quietly," Lau said.

Taiwanese operate about 20,000 plants in Guangdong, and some have walked away from their factories, workers and labor groups say. In northern China's Shandong province, dozens of South Korean export company managers have fled, according to reports in the state-run news media.

"If these laid-off migrant workers stay in the city, it might cause social problems in the urban areas," said Cao, the Chinese academy economist. "But if they go back to their hometown, they won't have enough to do to make money."

Thousands of workers face that dilemma in Shaoxing, about 140 miles south of Shanghai. Companies with names such as Rich-tex and Sun-tex dot the city, the capital of China's textile industry.

Few were bigger than Jianglong, which is Chinese for "river dragon." The company posted sales of about $110 million and a profit of $14 million last year, according to its annual report. Its owner, Tao, boasted of the company's sophisticated research-and-development capabilities and a base of global customers that included Wal-Mart.

Government officials said recently that Tao had been caught, but they refused to comment further.

On the day Jianglong was shut down, 2,000 workers jammed the streets outside the factory, blocking traffic and demanding answers. Several hundred police officers scuffled with workers. Later that day, government officials agreed to pay employees.

"I'll go home and farm," said Yang Chaoxian, 43, who had earned about $260 a month working 12 hours a day, seven days a week. "Labor here is too hard," said the Chongqing native, a cigarette tucked behind his ear. "After I leave, I don't ever want to come back."
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Avinash R »

China okays $586 billion stimulus to boost economy
Sun Nov 9, 2008 6:56am EST
By Kirby Chien

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's cabinet has approved a massive stimulus package worth 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) through 2010 to boost domestic demand, the official Xinhua news agency said on Sunday.

Investments will be targeted at infrastructure, social welfare and other key sectors as part of an "active" fiscal policy, Xinhua said.

It did not say how the extra spending would be financed.

China ran a consolidated budget surplus in the first half of the year of more than $170 billion, but tax revenue growth is slowing sharply as the economy reels under the impact of the global credit crunch.

The cabinet also announced an explicit shift in monetary policy, which it now described as "moderately easy."

The People's Bank of China has already cut interest rates three times since mid-September and scrapped lending quotas in a bid to support the economy.

Lending to small and medium enterprises will be increased as part of the plan, Xinhua said.

Officials have been flagging measures to pump up demand since gross domestic product growth slowed unexpectedly sharply to 9.0 percent in the third quarter from 10.4 percent in the first half.

Indicators for October have been even weaker.

Giving details of the package, Xinhua said China would invest an additional 100 billion yuan in national construction this quarter and would earmark an extra 20 billion yuan next year for reconstruction in areas hit by major natural disasters.

Sector that will benefit from the extra spending include affordable housing, rural infrastructure, transport networks, environmental protection and technical innovation, Xinhua said.

The cabinet also confirmed a long-awaited reform to the way value added tax is calculated. The result will be to reduce companies' tax bill by 120 billion yuan a year, the agency added.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Singha »

just shows the kind of razor thing margins and soft loans much of these 'growth cos'
operated on. things must be bad if expats are just packing their suitcase and fleeing
in the night. also shows how useless and pro-owner the Govt of PRC is...all these
fat cats were wining and dining with the local party bosses until a month back.
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Post by Singha »

NYT - so construction is where the laid off factory workers will be given
jobs. tough luck for the women workers though.

China Unveils $586 Billion Economic Stimulus Plan

By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: November 9, 2008

SHANGHAI — China announced on Sunday a huge economic stimulus package aimed at bolstering its weakening economy and perhaps helping fight the effects of a global economic slowdown.

In a bold move at a time when major projects are being put off around the world, Beijing said it would spend an estimated $586 billion by 2010 on wide array of national infrastructure and social welfare projects, including constructing new railways, subways, airports and rebuilding depressed communities.

The package, announced by the State Council Sunday evening, is the largest economic stimulus effort ever undertaken by the Chinese government and would amount to about 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product during each of the next two years.

Beijing also said it was loosening credit and encouraging lending and that it needed to have a more “pro-active fiscal policy” in order to strengthen its economy.

The stimulus plan would be enormous for any country, let alone one whose gross domestic product is lower than most other major industrialized countries, estimated to be around $3.5 trillion this year. Earlier this year, the United States Congress passed a $700 billion bailout package in a country with an economy whose size is close to $14 trillion.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by vina »

The figure if I can read right $586b , as stimulus over the next two years is massive by any standards. The point is , if it spent in such haste, the probability is it will be over a whole lot of ill conceived projects and much of it will go waste.

The bigger point is , it shows how badly screwed Panda really is. Forget about 9 and 10% growth rates. I really dont believe that China was growing at that rates and much of it was unsustainable, invesment driven and targeted at exports.

With US and EU going down the toilet, there is massive excess capacity in China. The industrial base WILL HAVE TO SHRINK. No two questions about that. In fact, I would rate China as the biggest potential loser in this credit crunch. I think China will be the ultimate domino to fall in the 3 stage thermo nuclear like boom. The Chinese have been running an "investment driven Ponzi" (for want of a better term) and they were on the winning side for the past 20 years. The problem is at some point it will collapse. The guys who ran such Investment Ponzis earlier, the SE Asians and Koreans , came to grief in 1998 in the asian currency crisis, Japan in the lost decade and well, China is coming to grief now.

China is going to face massive deflation. They have been investing in fixed assets like absolute maniacs. Half the capacity of world's steel, half consumption of coal, more copper consumed than some top 10 countries put together and next to nothing to show for it? That doesn't add up and shows that the economy is shot with inefficiencies. The costs of building all that capacity in steel, the one power plant a week..the massive aluminium smelter capacity (close to half the worlds?), half of the world shoe shops.. sorry. none of that is sustainable. Now you will have to pay back the accounting costs of building those assets or you will have to write them off. Now, with such massive over capacity and the dump to the rest of the world "aka" exports closed, the only way for such capacity to go is internally and that cant happen. Huge write offs is what will happen.

What was that someone sad about bad debt on Chinese banks being close to a trillion dollars ?.. Yeah, China can beat up those and with it's controlled press can hide those kind of data and facts and suppress information. But, the truth is the truth, it will come back and hurt. I think we are start of massive meltdown in China.. Remember, the Soviet union collapsed literally overnight. The superpower was bankrupt, without anyone really knowing it. That is how authoritarian states are. Maybe China is headed that way too. Who knows?
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Singha »

Abhischeckcc is predicting a internal party coup in China where current set of leaders
may be discredited and retired, some show trials, some executions for corruption and
a new set takes charge hoping the mud is washed off.

but thats mere atmospherics and doesnt fill hungry stomach of factory worker. I am also
really wondering where all those basic industries like metal processing and melting will
feed into.

commodities exports into PRC are sure going to nosedive now.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Singha »

excerpt from The Age, aus.

For all the talk about China's strategically minded autocrats, in recent times China's economic policy-making has appeared populist, ineffective and woefully behind the curve.

Last year there was no serious monetary policy tightening until October, by which time inflation had run away. The draconian credit restrictions that were ultimately imposed were lifted only a week ago, by which time the Chinese economy was already in trouble.

Real estate prices are falling across the country, crushing the property construction sector and causing consumers to put off buying major items such as cars, white goods and travel.

The construction slump has flattened steel mills and other heavy industries. On Friday a State Grid official told Xinhua news agency that he estimated that electricity production - which some economists still use as a proxy for gross domestic product - declined in October for the first time since the Asian crisis.

Back in 2004 top advisers were urging Premier Wen Jiabao to dramatically appreciate the yuan because the artificially low currency was fuelling an unsustainable trade surplus and the Chinese economy was becoming dangerously overreliant on export markets. Wen talked about rebalancing the economy but did almost nothing to make it happen.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by Nayak »

There are news of tainted/poisonous milk products reaching India despite the ban.

I hope none of the kids get affected by consuming chinese milk.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by vina »

More example of Panda Investment Ponzi.

China To Fund Development of Fuel Efficient Models

After spending close to $29b and trying to build local brands like FAW and SAIC, which have zero profits and which are now getting killed by Toyota, VW, GM and others and the foreigners have closed the price gap with the local guys, Panda's favorite sons are in trouble.

Model names like "Roewe" (Chinese for Rover? :lol: :lol: ) and "Red Flag" arent flying anymore. I think now GM Spark globally outsells the Cherry QQ!

"The plans may aid Chinese automakers, such as SAIC Motor Corp. and China FAW Group Corp., the country's two largest, which are struggling to enter developed markets overseas and are losing market share at home as foreign carmakers slash prices. Investing in systems such as fuel cells and hybrids is also in line with a 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus budget China announced yesterday.

Like other carmakers, ``SAIC has invested heavily in developing self-owned models, but there is still no profit,'' said Gu Jiahao, a CSC Securities Co. analyst in Shanghai. ``There won't be a fundamental improvement in profitability unless they come up with something that really sells.'' "

"Consumers are only becoming more picky about quality and that's leading to the decline in market share for China's own- brand cars,'' said Hu Xindong, head of investor relations at Dongfeng Motor Group Co. ``Consumers don't care about the origin of a brand, only quality matters.''
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by negi »

Nayak wrote:There are news of tainted/poisonous milk products reaching India despite the ban.

I hope none of the kids get affected by consuming chinese milk.
There was an article in TOI stating the figure was very low in 2005-2006 (couple of hundred kg's) which increased in 2008 to 80,000+ kg. Must be a part of UPA's look east policy thanks to commies.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by abhischekcc »

>>Abhischeckcc is predicting a internal party coup in China where current set of leaders
may be discredited and retired, some show trials, some executions for corruption and
a new set takes charge hoping the mud is washed off.


Singha, what is going to happen is that this set of market friendly leaders are going to replaced by the socialist set, who were forced to take a back seat when the economy was doing well. PLA leaders were placated with big toys.

But when the economy is in slow (maybe fast) motion collapse, the socialist thinkers and PLA may join forces to oust the Shanghai crowd.

If there is blood on the streets, they may even execute the Shanghai crowd to placate the crowds that 'justice' has been done. Such a China may simply knock itself out of contention from world leadership, but it also raises the danger of a border war somewhere around China. India needs to be careful.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by abhischekcc »

vina,

Ponzi scheme is probably the best description of CHinese investment strategy.

Andi Xie (before his fall) had given the best explaination of how this scheme works. basically more economic activity leads to more taxes, which are invested in more construction, which leads to more trading, which leads to more taxes ...............

But when economy turns down, the whole virtuous cycle become a vicious cycle.

That's why I am sceptical that the CCP can find $586 billion. They can;t raise taxes, tax collection itself is going down. They can;t raise loan in the international market, things being what they are. That leaves the last option - printing money - which means the danger of inflation with all its attendant political problems.

Ahhhh Schadenfreude :twisted:
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by abhischekcc »

$586 b over 2 years = $293 b /year

That's about 10% of their GDP.

Is that how they maintain 10% growth rates???? :rotfl:
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by vina »

Yes. I think the Chinese are counting on the fact that inflation is currently "dead" (well in India , it is still running at 10% mind you) and they think that they have the leeway to print their way out of trouble.

I am not very sure. China is not as self sufficient in terms of resources for it's mining industries as the US is/ was during the "new deal". There will be structural problems with the kind of stimulus China puts in. For eg, it will be directed at huge infrastructure building and "welfare" (some form of unemployment insurance I am sure), that will be directed at mostly it's huge investments in fixed costs and stuff like steel plants, aluminum smelters , construction etc. Problem is that will not take care of the huge unemployment that the downturn in the export oriented south china (which I think would be a far far bigger employer than capital intensive smoke stacks) . The smoke stacks need imported ores and other inputs and massive amounts of energy. Yes, the danger that primary commodity prices will shoot up again is very real. In any case, huge amounts of capacity that is structurally geared towards other demand sources rather than the direction of stimulus will see destruction. Anyhow in the long run, this rate of consumption of china of commodities is unsustainable.

Other problem is such stimulus , is it cannot be constrained within China. Much of it will spill outside in terms of higher prices for inputs and also machinery import and other stuff. For eg, if steel is more expensive within China than in Europe and outside producers are barred from exporting to china, expect serious retaliation against chinese exports. The stimulus will be global in nature. So there is a limit on how much of the unusused capacity that the Chinese will be able to use.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by vsudhir »

Singha wrote:Abhischeckcc is predicting a internal party coup in China where current set of leaders
may be discredited and retired, some show trials, some executions for corruption and
a new set takes charge hoping the mud is washed off.

but thats mere atmospherics and doesnt fill hungry stomach of factory worker. I am also
really wondering where all those basic industries like metal processing and melting will
feed into.

commodities exports into PRC are sure going to nosedive now.
Scene seems ripe for adventurism of the military kind after that of the economic kind starts to implode.

The terrible urgency in even our present chillmaro GoI regarding infra and arms upgrades all along the Tibet border as well as unveiling of ATV etc means the whiff of possible warbreaking got 2 our intell agencies months ago.

Plus with excess male popn, war is a useful means to exhaust excess testesterone onlee.

Just speculating onlee. std disclaimers hold.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by vsudhir »

And sure enough, the chinis have been upping the ante.

Passive-agressive on the India-China border
Intrusions by the Chinese forces continue unabated into Indian territory despite attempts by a red-faced South Block to brush them under the carpet. The most recent incursion occurred on September 30 at the Burste post in the Ladakh sector along the Sino-Indian boundary. Soldiers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army entered 15 km into India.

While the transgression itself was unacceptable, the Chinese captured the patrolling base hut of Indian forces who were not present at the outpost. The patrolling base was burnt and rations and other equipment stolen. In another incident a fortnight ago, the Chinese PLA confronted Indian soldiers and asked them to “vacate Chinese sovereign territory”.

Alarmingly, according to a report sent to National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan, the incursions tally has increased to 213 incidents, up from 170 reported last year.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by abhischekcc »

Some western economists with too much time on their hands had once found out that in ancient China, major wars followed a few years of hard winter. :-? Confused?

That's because hard winter put pressure on food reserves, and when food reserves ran low, the kings resorted to war to take it from others.

China may just have a very hard winter in this financial crisis.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by zlin »

Microsoft plans to invest one billion dollars in China R&D

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h9g ... 89swueqYdg
14 hours ago

BEIJING (AFP) — Microsoft Corp. said Thursday it plans to spend one billion dollars on research and development in China, suggesting a continued focus on the country's huge market, despite the global financial downturn.

"Our investment in research and development in China over the next three years will exceed one billion dollars," said Zhang Yaqin, chairman of the company's China research and development group.

The investment would "greatly boost information technology innovation in Microsoft and China," he told reporters in Beijing.

"The one billion dollar investment over the three years is new investment... which will focus on human resources and other resources linked to research and development," he said.

He said the investment did not include money spent on mergers and acquisitions, suggesting Microsoft's investments in China could actually be even larger over the next three years.

Zhang's statement came as a signal that the corporate world remains interested in China, despite the slowdown in the global economy.

General Motors said Wednesday that it was making money in China and was continuing its investments there.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by zlin »

China '08 grain output to hit new record
http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/articl ... d-hay.html

October 20, 2008
CHINA'S grain output is expected to hit a record high this year, the fifth year in a row, China's National Bureau of Statistics said.



China's summer grain output rose 2.6 per cent on year to 120.41 million metric tons, and the acreage of autumn grain is estimated to have increased, he told a press conference on the third-quarter economic situation, confirming data on summer grain output released earlier.

Output of cotton and sugar crops remain largely stable, while output of oilseeds and hogs increased from last year.

The country will also increase farm subsidies significantly year by year to promote increased grain output and farmers' incomes, the official Xinhua News Agency said, citing a document from China's Communist Party.

The government will steadily raise minimum purchase prices of grains and increase state reserves of major agricultural products to ensure supply, it said.

The government will also roll out measures to set up a rural financial system to fund development in rural areas, it said.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by zlin »

China's October retail sales up 22 percent
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i4IE ... QD94D5KN00

BEIJING (AP) — China's retail sales remained robust in October, a positive sign for Chinese leaders who want to boost consumer spending to insulate the economy from a global slowdown.

Retail spending rose 22 percent in October from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. That was down from September's 23.2 percent growth but still one of the strongest months on record.

Stronger consumer spending is one goal of a $586 billion stimulus package unveiled Sunday to boost China's economic growth and lessen the impact of weaker sales by the country's export industries_a mainstay of China's boom.

Consumer spending has stayed strong despite an overall downturn that saw economic growth fall to 9 percent in the latest quarter from last year's 11.9 percent.

Beijing has tried in recent years to reduce China's reliance on exports and investment to drive growth by encouraging consumers to spend more. But despite rapid growth, consumer spending is still relatively small as a share of the economy.

Total retail spending was just over 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) in October, the statistics bureau said.
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Post by zlin »

APPLIED MATERIALS BUILDS SOLAR ENERGY R&D CENTER IN CHINA
Tue. November 11, 2008; Posted: 03:10 AM

XI'AN, Nov 11, 2008 (AsiaPulse via COMTEX) Applied Materials Inc. of the United States recently kicked off the construction of its global solar energy research and development (R&D) center in Xi'an, capital of Northwest China's Shaanxi Province.
Applied Materials will inject US$45 million into the R&D center, which is expected to come into operation in June 2009, covering 34,000 square meters of floor space.

After completion, the new center will be the world's first solar energy R&D center integrating thin-film and crystalline silicon solar energy technologies, and it is also one of the most advanced and largest ones globally.

The R&D center will install a complete SunFab 5.7-sq m. thin film solar panel experimental production line for the purposes of technological renovation, demonstration and training as well as testing and certifying of spare parts.

Meanwhile, the center will introduce the top-level solar energy R&D of the United States and Europe to China.

It will bring the total investment of Applied Materials in Xi'an up to US$300 million. As early as April 2006, the American company had pumped US$255 million of investment into the building of a Global Development and Technology Support Center in Xi'an's High-Tech Zone.
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