India-Russia: News & Analysis

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Nov 2008 12:40

In Russia establishment, there are different views. Some see China benignly, others see China as a threat and want to look elsewhere for strategic depth.

My theory is, that Admiral Gorshkov is being priced up at the instance of Sinophiles in the Russian establishment. These Sinophiles are probably hiding behind a valid reason for asking for a price hike, as may be the costs were really underestimated initially, but a non-Sinophile would have handled the matter differently. First of all, he would have accepted that the error lay with the Russians, he would have gone for a compromise and not insisted at such an exorbitant price, and he would have kept the focus on the strategic-military relationship between the Russians and the Indians. There are of course those in Russia, who would support looking for a compromise with the Indians, but apparently they are being sidelined on the pretext of 'Russia should not show weakness; Russia should negotiate hard; the time when Russians used to be taken for a ride is over, etc'. The Sinophiles are however doing the exact opposite, they are weakening Indo-Russian strategic defense relations, and Russia along with that. They know that the Gorshkov sale can act as a lever to spoil the whole relationship. The Sinophiles also know, that they have friends in India, those in the Indian establishment, who want to shift Indian foreign policy and make it more America-centric, people sitting in the Indian Ministry of Finance, for example.

If Russia can be willing to give Iceland a loan of 4 billion dollars, they can certainly show some leeway with its decades long strategic relationship with India.

Indian intelligence should find out, who are really the Sinophile Russians and who are Indophile or Independent/Nationalist, and try to see if all these 'friends' can be reactivated. The December meeting with Medwedev will be interesting.

Just my two paise.

amit · Post by **amit** » 16 Nov 2008 12:52

Good point Rajesh. Without being so explicit I was also referring to these so-called Sinophiles who think China can be brought closer to Russia and still be controlled. And you see how China is getting inroads into Russian oil and the not so often discussed water resources in Sibera which China wants almost as desperately as they want oil for their drought prone North and West.

The recent $25 billion loan plan, which fortunately has run into some rough weather, is a good example of the tight embrace that these so-called Sinophiles want the Russian Bear and the Chinese Dragon to have.

However, good luck to them if they can think they can trust the Dragon.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Nov 2008 13:08

Amit,

The Dragon already has the Americans in its tight economic grip. If can get the Russians too in its embrace, there will be nothing stopping it. That is why, it will be important that Obama eases the tension with Russia and come to some sort of strategic understanding with Russia.

It is good for the Americans, it is good for the Russians, and it is good for the Indians.

The Sinophiles in the Russian establishment can only be shunted out, if and only if the relations between USA and Russia are improved. In fact Russia is the best hedge USA can have against China, even better than India, if I may say so.

amit · Post by **amit** » 16 Nov 2008 13:25

Rajesh I agree with you.

As an aside, it would be nice if folks did not have the simplistic belief that for India it's a Zero Sum game as far as ties with Russia and the US is concerned. The world, and international relations are far more complex.

JMT

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 16 Nov 2008 16:54

RajeshA wrote:My theory is, that Admiral Gorshkov is being priced up at the instance of Sinophiles in the Russian establishment. These Sinophiles are probably hiding behind a valid reason for asking for a price hike, as may be the costs were really underestimated initially, but a non-Sinophile would have handled the matter differently. First of all, he would have accepted that the error lay with the Russians, he would have gone for a compromise and not insisted at such an exorbitant price, and he would have kept the focus on the strategic-military relationship between the Russians and the Indians. There are of course those in Russia, who would support looking for a compromise with the Indians, but apparently they are being sidelined on the pretext of 'Russia should not show weakness; Russia should negotiate hard; the time when Russians used to be taken for a ride is over, etc'. The Sinophiles are however doing the exact opposite, they are weakening Indo-Russian strategic defense relations, and Russia along with that. They know that the Gorshkov sale can act as a lever to spoil the whole relationship. The Sinophiles also know, that they have friends in India, those in the Indian establishment, who want to shift Indian foreign policy and make it more America-centric, people sitting in the Indian Ministry of Finance, for example.

If Russia can be willing to give Iceland a loan of 4 billion dollars, they can certainly show some leeway with its decades long strategic relationship with India.

Indian intelligence should find out, who are really the Sinophile Russians and who are Indophile or Independent / Nationalist, and try to see if all these 'friends' can be reactivated. The December meeting with Medwedev will be interesting.

Just my two paise.

Paise is fast disappearing from Indian markets, so it must be your 2 Rs

BTW, IMO, India can forget Gorshkov. Russia is not going to sell it to India, for 2 possible reasons. 1: After Georgia conflict, they have realised that Russia needs more A/C's. 2: Chinese probably are arm twisting Russains not to sell it to India.

Eventually India should understanding that flirting with US has a price. US is like a fire, get close by, you will be burnt, go farther away you will feel the cold biting you. We need to maintain the right distance from Americans and follow our own path.

And we need to straighten our relationship with Russians, if not we need to have a contingency plan chalked out ASAP. This need to happen immediately after Medvedev's December NDelhi visit, not any later than that.

Chinese must be very happy by now with what Russia is doing to India and Americans I am not sure if they will play wait & watch games or if they already see opportunities here with India. It may so happen that India might be in neither Ru camp or with US camp, there by letting Chinese to grow, which is a foreign policy disaster for India. We need to watch out for Chinese moves. China is the biggest adversary India has to face in the near term future and in the long run as well.

If Russia fails to see Chinese threat to their nation, they WILL loose Siberia much before 2030, and Russia or the Sinophile's will be able to do nothing about it. Russia needs India as much as India needs them. Hopefully all the misunderstandings will disappear after Mr. Medvedev's visit in Dec 2008. India, Russia and US need to keep the 2T issues, the Tibet and the Taiwan issue alive and kicking, to keep China under check.

prashanth · Post by **prashanth** » 16 Nov 2008 17:40

quote]BTW, IMO, India can forget Gorshkov. Russia is not going to sell it to India, for 2 possible reasons. 1: After Georgia conflict, they have realised that Russia needs more A/C's. 2: Chinese probably are arm twisting Russains not to sell it to India.[/quote]

Russia doesn't want to part with Gorshkov. 2 billion $ is too steep a price for a 30 year old ship that had been idle. The best way forward is to get some foreign help in speeding up IAC, and follow it up with a second one. Meanwhile we can try to refurbish the AC's that we now have.

prabir · Post by **prabir** » 17 Nov 2008 00:56

We should not pay them a penny more. This will bring them to the place where they belong.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 17 Nov 2008 17:12

India Today Link

Russia threatens to call off Gorshkov deal

Sandeep Unnithan
New Delhi, November 17, 2008

In a fresh set of pressure tactics, Russia has asked India for an additional $ 2 billion for the completion of the aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov failing which the carrier would be inducted into the Russian navy.

Russian news agency RIA Novosti recently quoted unnamed government officials as saying that the aircraft carrier would be handed over to the Russian navy if India did not pay up.

Last year, citing cost overruns, Russia nearly tripled the refit cost of the former Soviet aircraft carrier which India purchased in 2004 for $ 750 million. While, India's Defence Ministry is more or less resigned to the increase, the Finance Ministry which controls the purse strings has shot down the escalation saying it will set a bad precedent for future military deals.

Sevmash shipyard chief Nikolai Kalistratov said that additional funds are needed to complete the refit of the ship by 2011. The Gorshkov refit has already been delayed by over three years. It was to have been inducted into the Indian Navy by next year.

Though hectic negotiations are underway between the defence secretaries of Russia and India to resolve the logjam, the fresh Russian pressure seems to be applied for a variety of reasons.

India has not paid the Russian shipyard Sevmash any money since January 2007. Work on the hull of the ship has been completed and the vessel is to be relaunched as the Vikramaditya later this month. The shipyard says it needs more funds to complete the carrier and hand it over by 2011 for a year-long sea trials.

Lastly, hanging over the biggest military impasse between Russia and India is the state visit of President Dmitry Medvedev, his first to India, next month. "Russia is anxious to smooth the deal out before Medvedev's visit," a defence official told India Today.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Nov 2008 19:28

amit wrote:
Sanku wrote:If folks were not so enamored by the "golden" west; they would see that all that their rags print is not necessarily very objective.
So National Geographic magazine is a rag?

When it aspires to be "economist"and offers insights on "transparency in Russia" instead of pretty picture book on penguins yes it goes to a Rag category very fast.

BTW the post is typical of whats the trend in your recent posts; start personal attack when confronted with facts. Since I don't expect better from you I shall let it be.

The points that are important is that the Russia screwing us is as much real as US showering us with Manna of heaven; people obsessed with either or mono chromes are incapable of seeing technicolor I guess.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Nov 2008 19:39

RajeshA wrote:My theory is, that Admiral Gorshkov is being priced up at the instance of Sinophiles in the Russian establishment.

RajeshA and others; why does this need to have a Chinese angle? Can it be something much simpler; Russians under priced in moment of crises and now want to correct the mistake -- however the conditions under which India and Russia were operating with Quid pro quo (as in near past a 5 years back) have changed -- perhaps it is GoI which is not understanding Russian concerns properly?

Perhaps Russia now thinks being "nice" to India is not worth it? (There's no reason why India-Russia-China is a zero sum game so this is possible even without an Chinese angle); remember India SUPPORTED US of A when it came up with the missile shield program (overall and not Poland base) so when India starts taking a neutral "you supplier me customer" stand Russia will behave just like a supplier.

I think it is important to realize that you cant "love" more than one partner at the same time -- particularly if your partners happen to be antagonistic to each other -- if we wont "love" Russia -- may be a resurgent India will look for other suitors and so hence will Russia.

If our operating model is as per below--

We should not pay them a penny more. This will bring them to the place where they belong.

We should also do no

when Russia tells us where we belong.

Being jingo's does not mean ending up fighting your friends because they are not friends enough does it? To quote a much abused GoI phrase India and Russia is first and foremost about "bilateral ties".

-------------------------------

I saw this post later, I am making a cross post since I 100% agree with the thoughts mentioned therein

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 15#p567515

And yet another from Gyani posters

http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 49#p566249

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 17 Nov 2008 20:13

Sanku wrote:Perhaps Russia now thinks being "nice" to India is not worth it?

Sanku, in country to country relations, there's no scope for being 'nice'. During the cold war Russia needed India as much as India needed Russia. Its all about national interests and how they match up. We have paid a lot of money to the Russians for their friendship.

We should also do no when Russia tells us where we belong.

????

Being jingo's does not mean ending up fighting your friends because they are not friends enough does it? To quote a much abused GoI phrase India and Russia is first and foremost about "bilateral ties".

It is about bilateral ties to promote national interests of both countries. National interest is supreme!

Neshant · Post by **Neshant** » 17 Nov 2008 20:33

Russians under priced in moment of crises and now want to correct the mistake

A contract is signed that sets the price of an item to be purchased.

One does not take half the money and then 'correct the mistake' by jacking up the price. That is called swindling and its a breach of contract. Their so called mistakes are their own problem, not India's.

I suggest India ask for a return of the money it has paid plus interest from the time it was given.

I'd like to see how this plays out in the international press in terms of their future arms sales to other countries. Nobody will buy defence equipment from a supplier who swindles them. Would they dare pull the same scam with the Chinese.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Nov 2008 21:23

Vivek K wrote:
Sanku wrote:Perhaps Russia now thinks being "nice" to India is not worth it?

Sanku, in country to country relations, there's no scope for being 'nice'.

Note the Quotes around "nice" I of course agree with what you say -- the problem here is that with Russia a majority of our countrymen have different expectations. When Russia does what it must -- it becomes "screwing" us; when in fact its playing least hardball amongst all our "friends"

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Nov 2008 21:35

Neshant wrote: I suggest India ask for a return of the money it has paid plus interest from the time it was given. .

I am sure the Russians would have considered what they need to do as per the "letter" of the contract -- the question is that Indio-Rus ties have not been about the letter but the geo-pol intent and how to best help meet others national intrest. Truly strategic partners with quid pro quo going up to the level of veto's in UN.

The real issue here is that there is a marked decline in the "strategic" part of our relationships with Russia over last few years. This is a very worrying development -- we dont want to lose the last remaining "friends" we have.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Nov 2008 21:44

If we look at the total amount of work being done with RU the G is about 10-20% or so. Which is what bugs me. Why is RU taking such a difficult (and a moving) stand on one item.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Nov 2008 21:50

NRao wrote:If we look at the total amount of work being done with RU the G is about 10-20% or so. Which is what bugs me. Why is RU taking such a difficult (and a moving) stand on one item.

I thought as per last reports it is we who moved? I mean they escalated all right; but then the MoD negotiators went hammer and tongs and closed on a final price (albeit higher); finally the Finance ministry pulled the plug.

Could it be friends of US in finance ministry creating difficulties on a external bidding?

prabir · Post by **prabir** » 17 Nov 2008 22:17

There has to be objective appraisal of relationship with Russia and the best way to move forward will be during December visit of President Medvedev. We need to address our own short comings and at the same time, put our concerns very clearly and look for ways of addressing them.

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 17 Nov 2008 22:46

The articles above seem to say that the AC costs are related to "features" India wanted that have become more expensive to develop (project overshooting estimates or some such). Can India add those "features" to the AC indigenously and take possession of the AC anyway, even if it is missing various add-ons? Don't know much about these deals, so just asking a question. If the Russians are okay with that, their excuse makes sense, or there is something else behind this drive to break existing contracts with India.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 17 Nov 2008 23:05

^^^^

I don't suppose we will ever know the details; not for next 10 years at least; although its quite possible that the features were something which could be done only at a Russian shipyard at the time of construction or something similar. Otherwise knowing how Russians have been; why ask?

Rye · Post by **Rye** » 17 Nov 2008 23:09

what's problem with asking such questions to the Russians -- contractual obligations and all that, yes? Not sure why abject capitulation to Russia is seen as the only option. It certainly seems as if India could use the skills to build its own ACs down the line.

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Nov 2008 07:34

Sanku wrote:When it aspires to be "economist"and offers insights on "transparency in Russia" instead of pretty picture book on penguins yes it goes to a Rag category very fast.

It takes either breathtaking audacity born out of a proven track record (of published papers, lectures etc) or sheer stupidity to make a comment saying that National Geographic is OK as long as it publishes pretty picture book on penguins and immediately becomes a Rag when one of its internationally celebrated authors, after traveling extensively in Russia and Sibera offers insights on "transparency in Russia".

I have a pretty good idea which one applies to you Sanku - it's obvious to me from a number of your posts like the one I'm quoting below - but I'll keep the thoughts to myself and I'm sure fellow posters will make a judgment call if they so desire.

Sanku wrote:We should also do no when Russia tells us where we belong.{Even the most die-hard Russian jingo and Putin admirer would be embarrassed to make a statement like this one}

Incidentally have you ever been to Russia and/or Siberia? Do you read/write Russian? What is the source of information for all the gyan you have on Russia which allows you to blithely decide what constitutes "true" insights to what is happenning in Russia and what is "trash" published in an almost 100 year old international "Rag" called National Geographic, under the control of the "golden West".

I think as a fellow BFRite you have a moral duty to let us know your sources of information so that we too can be educated on the true state of affairs in Russia, where - from what you are writing - there is no lack of transparency, no corruption, journalists are not murdered, one of the most richest men is put behind bars and his assets taken over and only milk and honey (along with oil) if flowing. Since it appears a lot of folks don't seem to know about this Russia, I do really hope you will rise to the occasion and educate us or at least point us out to relevant links which demolishes the "misinformation" written in the "Rag" National Geographic.

Incidentally I do hope you remember the BRF adage that if you can't back up what you say with links/sources then some folks think you are just expelling hot air.

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Nov 2008 07:36

Sanku,

I see that you are beginning to see the light since you agree with with what Avid wrote very perceptively

Avid wrote:It is not the Chinese.

From all accounts Ru is trying something else -
1) Get the re-designed and refitted Vikramaditya for the RuN, and/or
2) Get out of leasing one or both of the Akulas by demanding much more for it.

From the escalation of the demands for $$$ it clearly is a sign that they would like to have the contract canceled, and with each escalation the reference is that RuN would take it.

See it from where we are right now:
- How soon before RuN can seriously project power? Consider the current number of nuke submarines, and other available assets. Also, it most definitely needs the two Akulas - more these than the carrier.

- Mig-29K is developed, and ready for additional numbers. Cost for this has been footed. They can produce additional 29K quickly in time it takes to finish refit of Groshkov, and outfit it with the additional 29K.

- According the the contract signed, they will reimburse India for the cost of refitting the AC - which was peanuts. Akula cost is hidden in the Mig-29K not the refit.

Very likely outcome:
1. Ru will cancel the lease of 2nd Akula and "accommodate" India with escalation less than being demanded. They will deliver the Carrier in 2012. IN would bear a definite higher cost for the Carrier.
2. In public both would have compromised - but in private IN would have lost the 2nd Akula for which it has funded completion.
3. In private IN would bear a much higher cost of leasing the 1st Akula than originally agreed upon, and a significantly higher cost for the carrier than agreed upon escalation (because of escalation combined with cancellation of 2nd Akula)

Incidentally this is very similar to what I wrote in response to Phillip in the last page of this thread:

There's another point that IMO is worth considering. Putin has ambitions to bring back Russian military glory and he's increasingly taking a confrontationist approach with the West. By itself I think, from an Indian perspective, it's rather welcome. However, given that he's trying to beef up Russian military power, I just hope he's not thinking that given up a brand new and lethal nuclear power submarine for the 650-700 billion (I may be wrong with the figure, so apologies in advance) may not be worth it. Again I hope I'm wrong but recent events don't inspire confidence. Do also note that a refurbished Goroshkov would also be a very useful addition to the Russian Navy - I would evaluate the recent statement of either India pays up $2 billion more or the ship will be inducted into the Russian Navy from that perspective.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Nov 2008 10:14

Amit; Please knock of the patronizing posts; I have no wish to exchange inanities with you, it takes a certain amount of intellectual honesty to be able to see the truth and I see no reason to converse with folks who do not have it.

However if instead of going on a rah-rah extrapolation of my posts every time you see one; if you could try and think about what I am saying instead I would truly appreciate a reasoned response if you could ever come up with one.

Till then assume you are on my ignore list.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Nov 2008 10:15

Rye wrote:what's problem with asking such questions to the Russians -- contractual obligations and all that, yes? Not sure why abject capitulation to Russia is seen as the only option. It certainly seems as if India could use the skills to build its own ACs down the line.

No problem; the only problem is do we (on BRF) really know what is happening?

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 18 Nov 2008 10:22

http://in.news.yahoo.com/48/20081118/12 ... -sign.html

Tue, Nov 18 03:43 AM

Ahead of Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's maiden visit to India this December, Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon on Monday stated that both India and Russia are "keen to expand nuclear cooperation", while Russian Ambassador Vyacheslav Trubnikov told journalists that an agreement for setting up four more reactors in the Kudankulam nuclear power project (in Tamil Nadu) is expected to be signed.

In his inaugural address during the international conference on "Changing Patterns of Indo-Russian Cooperation" at the Observer Research Foundation, Menon confirmed, "Both India and Russia are keen to expand nuclear cooperation. All the preparatory work has been done."

Saying that India and Russia already have an "excellent relationship", the Foreign Secretary said the bilateral trade "remains a challenge... though it is positive, that is not enough".

Bilateral trade last year was around five billion dollars. He also explained the increasing importance of India-Russia relations in a developing multi-polar world. During the visit of the Russian President, several bilateral agreements are also likely to be signed in economic, trade and cultural areas.

Meanwhile, the Russian envoy said the agreement on Kudankulam would include the addition of two more reactors of 1,000 MWe each to the existing two and induction of two more for a capacity of 1,200 MWe each. He added that the Russian minister for nuclear industry will be in Mumbai shortly for talks with the Indian nuclear establishment and will also inspect the site at Kudankulam.

Though Medvedev is expected to sign the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement during his visit to India, expected between December 4 and 6, there are still some hurdles regarding New Delhi's acquisition of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. India has already paid US$ 1.5 billion for the carrier but Russia is reportedly asking for another US$ 2 billion. The envoy did not mince words: "It's market economy now and there are no more free lunches. India should decide what it wants onboard the ship. Everything else will fall in place," Trubnikov said.

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Nov 2008 12:06

Sanku wrote:Amit; Please knock of the patronizing posts; I have no wish to exchange inanities with you, it takes a certain amount of intellectual honesty to be able to see the truth and I see no reason to converse with folks who do not have it.

However if instead of going on a rah-rah extrapolation of my posts every time you see one; if you could try and think about what I am saying instead I would truly appreciate a reasoned response if you could ever come up with one.

Till then assume you are on my ignore list.

Sanku,

I don't respond to your posts. I think it's a waste of time.

I reply only when you respond with inane comments to posts that I make in response to other posters. Even this series of responses came when you jumped into an interesting exchange I was having with Phillip who raised a number of good points.

While I try my best to ignore you, I do reserve the right to respond to your motherhood statements - like National Geographic magazine is OK when it brings out picture books on penguins but is a Rag when it comments on the lack of transparency in Russia in an article which praises economic progress in that country - which are not backed by any facts, figures or links to published materials.

And I really do hope I'm on your ignore list.

I really do not have much patience for foolish responses to something I write.

Cheers!

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 18 Nov 2008 13:23

A Russian resurgence? (part one) :by Nader Elhefnawy Monday, November 10, 2008

A Russian resurgence? (part one) :by Nader Elhefnawy Monday, November 17, 2008

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Nov 2008 14:39

I think, India should buy/lease the consultancy services of Russian engineers, who have good knowledge of Gorshkov and its systems for 40 to 50 million US dollars for the next 10 years and do the rest of the fitting of Gorshkov in India itself. That way we will increase our AC capacity, technologically, logistically and production-wise. We can of course still keep some Russian suppliers for ship parts.

This would be a real challenge, and would help India grow. The Russians would be happy to get rid of the junk, as it stands now.

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Nov 2008 14:54

RajeshA wrote:This would be a real challenge, and would help India grow. The Russians would be happy to get rid of the junk, as it stands now.

You know Rajesh I'm not too sure the Russians consider Goroshkov a junk anymore. An aircraft carrier is only as good as the aircraft it can carry. And MiG29K, as we all know, is a very potent aircraft.

With the Indians having made the initial investment in the developing of this plane (and saving the MiG company from disaster) the Russians can now just simply jack up production of the plane and fit out the Goroshkov. It would be a nice addition to their Northern Fleet. As it is their other AC Admiral Kuznetsov spends more time in port than on patrol. The Gorky can provide a valuable training ship as the Russians re-learn their lost skills in operating AC as they build more of them. Earlier the Gorky was not that useful to the Russians as it could not accommodate the bigger Su-27 naval variants used on Kuznetsov, now that problem has been solved thanks to $$$ invested by India.

IMHO if the Indians walk away the Russians are going to absorb the Gorky into the RuNavy.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Nov 2008 15:16

Amit,

I'm out of my waters here, as far as negotiations over Gorshkov and its significance for Russians and Indians is concerned. As far as I understand it, the Russians are saying the price tab depends on the features India wants to get installed on the Gorshkov and if India relents on the features, India can have it cheaper.

So let's relent on the features. No bells and whistles. Just a plain vanilla working AC. India could retrofit INS Vikramaditya on our own, with some help from Russian engineers on contract and some Russian suppliers.

After we get it, we can do some hulla-bulla about how the Russians do not stick to their contracts etc, and ruin some trust in export markets for them, of course all under the political level.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Nov 2008 15:23

RajeshA wrote: This would be a real challenge, and would help India grow. The Russians would be happy to get rid of the junk, as it stands now.

It is a good idea; but you are missing out on a critical factor; the shipyard itself; if its all post launch fitting; that may still be possible; but if its a pre launch fitting -- thats not going to be possible. Also I guess in today's Russia the technicians are going to be prohibitively expensive; also it will take longer to do things the way you propose. As things stand the best thing is for the Fin Min to stop playing its obstructionist role and just get the Gorky home -- the rest of lessons if learnt (seem tough given GoI though) should be applied in future.

But this discussion is purely one ship discussion and should rather be in the naval thread than here -- where we do arm chair geo-pol.

In general when dealing with Russia we should also ask; whats the price of a proxy UN veto?

amit · Post by **amit** » 18 Nov 2008 15:28

RajeshA wrote:So let's relent on the features. No bells and whistles. Just a plain vanilla working AC. India could retrofit INS Vikramaditya on our own, with some help from Russian engineers on contract and some Russian suppliers.

I'm on the same page with you on this. It would be great if we could, like Rye suggested, tow the damn boat to India and do the retrofit there. But I suspect - and I agree I could be wrong here - its more than just what we want fitted on the boat. As far as I can recall that was discussed and narrowed down a while ago.

The other point, as brought out by an article posted on the Naval thread, a ship like that costs $4 billion brand new. With the new price escalation the cost now comes to $3.5 billion for a boat whose hull was built in the 1980s!

While some jollies here say what's $2 billion between friends, I can't think whatever the Indians wanted installed on the boat could take the cost up to just about $500 million less than what a new boat would cost?

Surely they aren't looking for massage parlors to be manned by Natashas and gold plated commodes on the Gorky!

Again I'm threading on speculative territory here but I don't think $2 billion is a figure that is based on some economic consideration after a through cost-benefit analysis. Rather it looks like a figure which came out of someone's Musharraf after a big session of raindeer meat and vodka. That's the gentle explanation. The more sinister one could be the Russians deliberately priced it so high, hoping that India would walk away.

JMT

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 18 Nov 2008 15:44

In the realm of speculation whats more probable

1) Russians are generally pulling out a number without any sense -- the same Russian who do what $ of Def biz every year -- and the number is accepted by MoD PNC for whatever reasons.

2) The Fin Min continuing in its glorious tradition of saying NO to everything defence at least 7 times before the PMO whacks it on the head with some thing weighing the same as the defence purchase in questions.

This combined with complete abdication of its usual responsibility by the PMO (of whacking Fin Min on its head); since well the PMO and Fin Min are run by folks whose interests are elsewhere?

I am sure it is a no brainer of a choice for a vast majority of thinking Indians (again speculating)

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Nov 2008 17:17

If as Rajesh says,quoting the Russians,the price depends upon the features,namely sensors and weaponry,as the hull is the cheapest part of the vessel,a no-frills carrier could be obtained at an acceptable price to both sides.I would however warn against too much to be left for the future,as we don't want another Brahmaputra class fiasco!The vessel could come with Kashtan CIWS and space left for future LR SAMs or Barak 2 AMMs as fitted onto the Viraat when developed for the IN.What is most important is that a flat top lasts for approximately 50 years! It is the most enduring class of warship that always keeps up with the latest in aviation technology by simply changing the aircraft and helos carried aboard.With STOVL aircraft like the JSF coming along shortly and possibly a STOVL version of the Russian 5th-gen fighter too,not to mention carrier UCAVs which the USN will induct in the next decade,the Gorshkov/Vik could last well into the next three decades as a lethal asset of the IN by carrying contemporary aircraft and seeing that the hull is in good condition.We've shown how two WW2 vintage UK carriers have lasted us very well and the same can be done with the Gorshkov.The extra money when seen in this light is really a trifle.The MIG-29Ks with TVC versions will be a potent aircraft at sea,equal to anything in its class.If new Merlins/NH-90s are also aboard,the ASW capability of the IN will also take a quantum leap.

All that is needed is for the IN/MOD/GOI to calmly take a holistic view of what the carrier will represent for India.A major asset that will dramatically increase our ability to show the flag and "kick ass" anywhere in the IOR and in the Far East,support our friends and defend our island territories with greater striking power.When the IAC also arrives,the IN's long felt need of having at least two carriers,one for each seaboard of the Indian sub-continent's landmass,will be fulfilled.Some intelligent bargaining and clubbing together the Gorshkov's extra price along with a "basket" of defence contracts with Russia for the services,will solve the issue.Without the Gorshkov,massive gaps in our ability to defend the nation from the sea will open up,especially at a time when the Chinese have a massive sub building programme in full swing,Pak building its own high-tech subs from Franc eand Germany too in the future and other countries like Oz and Malaysia,Singapore,Indonesia,Japan and S.Korea all building or buying new modern subs to strengthen their navies also operating in the IOR and Far East,in a time of acute energy security anxiety.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 19 Nov 2008 06:53

India Today Link

Russia not to provide Nerpa nuke submarine to India
PTI
Moscow, November 18, 2008

The Russian Navy will keep the accident-hit K-152 Nerpa nuclear attack submarine rather than lease or sell it to India with which negotiations were held about a possible deal worth millions of dollars, a top defence official said on Tuesday.

"The sum of $650-780 million, which Rosoboronexport and the Amur Shipbuilding Plant had negotiated over a long period of time with the Indian Ministry of Defence, will now be found in Russia, either within the state weapons procurement programme or somewhere else," Chief of the General Staff, Army General Nikolai Makarov, told the government daily 'Rossiiskaya Gazeta'.

The construction of the Akula II-class Nerpa nuclear attack submarine started in 1991, but was suspended for over a decade due to lack of funding. A toxic gas leak aboard the vessel during sea trials recently had left 20 people dead.

Under the larger Gorshkov package, the construction of the submarine was partially financed by India at the cost of $650 million for a 10-year lease of the 12,000-tonne Akula-II class vessel considered the quietest and deadliest of all Russian nuclear-powered attack submarines.

General Makarov's statement came shortly after the local media reported that Russian Navy was interested in keeping Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier in case Moscow and New Delhi fail to agree on final price of the refit of the Soviet-built vessel.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 19 Nov 2008 06:59

The Russians should keep their stuff. This is indeed a blessing assuming that Indians get the "hint".

amit · Post by **amit** » 19 Nov 2008 11:05

Manu wrote:India Today Link
Russia not to provide Nerpa nuke submarine to India

It seems all the worst case scenarios being debated here by many, including myself, is coming true. I was suspecting that Russia, with its sudden increase in military ambitions, would like to keep their toys. And this is especially more so after Indian financing helped them tide over the initial difficult period. Nerpa was mothballed before India pumped in money for the reconstruction. In the AC's case it's only as good as its aircraft and Indian interest and money helped in getting the potent MiG29K from the drawing boards into real aircraft. Now the Russians will want to keep the AC as it would be a significant addition to their Northern Fleet.

And there's another angle to all this. Their new found Chinese friends will be very, very happy. They know Russia will not give them this stuff but the next best case scenario is if India doesn't get them either. I'm sure the Chinese will find someway to reward Russia which is hungry for cash, with commodity prices going down south. It will more than compensate the Russians for monetary loss from India. Win, win for both.

But then of course some folks here will blame the PMO, Finance Ministry and Indian babudom for all this. It's there fault, naturally, they should have known India's worth and shouldn't complain now that Russia has shown India its place, right? After all, the babus should have understood that a few billion between friends is no big deal.

Serves India right to have sucked up with the US for the nuclear deal!

Now say sorry to the Russian Bear and go ahead with the US$10billion or so deals in the pipeline and be happy if those deals are also jacked up midway; India must do penance for look away from the Russian Bear.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 19 Nov 2008 11:28

NRao wrote:The Russians should keep their stuff. This is indeed a blessing assuming that Indians get the "hint".

Even if GoI gets the "hint" there would be a serious problem in terms of defense planning for the short term at the very least. Will it be "ok"? One doesn't know yet.

Not specifically to you NRao --

The only other alternative to Russia is Indian manufacturing (for obvious reasons); if we lose the sole reliable (considering all aspects) supplier outside India before we can get our facilities up and running (a 20-30 year estimate at least starting NOW) we would be in serious trouble. Cursing Russia at that point may be therapeutic and to lesser minds satisfying; but will serve zero value. Being a patriot or a jingo does not mean being oblivious of the reality and our own limitations does it.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 19 Nov 2008 11:33

amit wrote:Now say sorry to the Russian Bear and go ahead with the US$10billion or so deals in the pipeline and be happy if those deals are also jacked up midway; India must do penance for look away from the Russian Bear.

Absolutely; the way forward is go and say sorry -- and build the capability in India in parallel. Ego's when national interest is concerned of my way or highway is only for Oxford educated types steeped in the culture of stiff upper lip. It would be a disaster if end up destroying a real strategic relationship - one which keeps us secure - for the snake oil peddled by others.

I feel we are reliving the exercise where the red indians sold their land for baubles.

amit · Post by **amit** » 19 Nov 2008 11:39

Sanku wrote:
amit wrote:Now say sorry to the Russian Bear and go ahead with the US$10billion or so deals in the pipeline and be happy if those deals are also jacked up midway; India must do penance for look away from the Russian Bear.
Absolutely; the way forward is go and say sorry -- and build the capability in India in parallel. Ego's when national interest is concerned of my way or highway is only for Oxford educated types steeped in the culture of stiff upper lip. It would be a disaster if end up destroying a real strategic relationship - one which keeps us secure - for the snake oil peddled by others.

I feel we are reliving the exercise where the red indians sold their land for baubles.

Could you care to elaborate what exactly India has to say sorry about?

Destruction of any relationship is usually a two-way street. And you don't call a client-supplier relationship a strategic relationship and all in the name of being pragmatic and keeping Ego aside.

(As an aside: I wonder why your Ego rears up in full glory when it comes to the US of A?)

If there's nothing in it for the Russians then this relationship is dead even if India gives away its whole foreign exchange kitty.

And My way or the Highway. Nice phrase but ordinary folks with less mental abilities, like me would think that that's precisely what the Russians are saying. Better pay up or we don't give you the goods, contractual obligation be damned.

I don't think it would off the mark to label your posts as being abject genuflecting to Russia all in the name of keeping your ego aside.

Added later:
Incidentally the Thesaurus entry for ego at dictionary.com says this: character, psyche, self, self-admiration, selfdom, self-pride .

All these apply to both self as well as country. I hope that will help you to understand why there's so much heartburn on BRF, Indian Navy and Fin Min over the unreasonable, robber baron type of approach the Russians have taken. I hope that helps to explain why even highly respected posters on BRF are incensed with the Russian behaviour - letting out steam is always not a bad thing.

At the end of the day I'm sure India and Russia will strike a compromise but this incident should not be brushed under the carpet. And Russia should be made aware that it can't push around a country which has more than four times its population and an economy which is much bigger than their's (even taking into account the inflated commodity prices).