West Asia News and Discussions

[vavinash]

I am not against or for Iran but I don't see why India should be protecting countries that have british or american bases against Iran. Though a base for keeping some ships to monitor the persian gulf and red sea would be good.

The Crown Prince of Qatar asked for this in 1993 and on not getting it asked for US protection.

These states have historical memories of Kingdoms of Hindusthan/Bharat which were their protectors from 'pirate' chasers etc since pre-Islamic times. So that is one reason.

In 93 India was in no position to extend any help. Is India prepared for defence pacts with these countries? If iran is stupid enough to attack them will India retaliate? Will India base a squadron of MKI or a fleet of ships in these countries?

[Philip]

Flash.Massive Hamas/Palestinian rocket attack against Israel.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 92978.html

'Massive' rocket attack launched on Israel

AP
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
Israeli rescue services today reported what a statement called a "massive" cross-border rocket barrage by Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip, hours after an Israeli air strike, in the first major exchange of fire since a truce took effect in June.

The Israeli military said at least 35 rockets were fired from the strip early today, but there was no immediate word of injuries or damage.

Hamas said it fired the rockets.

Israel launched an airstrike on Gaza earlier today after its troops fought a fierce gunbattle with Hamas militants who then fired mortars into southern Israel.

The fighting killed six Palestinians and threatened to unravel the truce, that had mostly calmed violence in the volatile territory.

The violence was sparked after the Israeli army said its forces uncovered a tunnel about 300 yards inside the central Gaza Strip that militants planned to use to abduct Israeli soldiers. It said a special army unit had headed to the area to destroy the tunnel.

The army said its operation did not violate the truce, but was a legitimate move to remove an immediate threat to Israel from Gaza, which is controlled by the Islamic militant group Hamas.

[Philip]

The future of oil prices,indicating that energy resources and control of them will be the main concern of geo-politics in the coming years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008 ... ap-oil-iea

Oil 'to shoot back through $100'Comments (17) Zoe Wood guardian.co.uk, Thursday November 06 2008 08.41 GMT

The oil price will shoot back through $100 a barrel as soon as economic conditions return to normal, and will break through $200 threshold by 2030, say officials at the International Energy Agency.

The world energy watchdog is certain the "era of cheap oil" is over, according to research due to out next week. Indeed last year it had predicted the oil price would reach $108 in 2030 so has more than doubled its long-term price target.

"While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over," says the IEA in the World Energy Outlook report, obtained by the Financial Times ahead of its release next week.

Oil prices have endured a rollercoaster ride this year during some of the most volatile trading on record. Crude climbed relentlessly from $96 a barrel in January to a record $147 by mid-July, spelling misery for drivers.

Households also suffered as wholesale gas and electricity prices - which are linked to those of oil - soared to record levels and were swiftly passed on in higher fuel bills. Oil's rise was also a main driver for soaring inflation in the UK, which doubled in six months to nearly 5%.

But the intensification of the financial crisis this autumn has depressed the oil price to $60-$70 a barrel - today Brent crude was off 1% at $65.

As a result, the AA estimates that average UK petrol prices have fallen back from a peak of 119.7p per litre in mid July to 97.44p, reducing the cost of a 50-litre tank of petrol by about £11. It complains about a lack of "transparency" as lower prices are not passed on in full to consumers - but rises are.

But the IEA cautions the low oil price will be short-lived. It expects oil to trade at an average of more than $100 a barrel between now and 2015 as supply shortages become a reality.

According to the report the IEA believes the oil majors will struggle to maintain the status quo as older fields dry up. They need a "new" Saudi Arabia - which pumps 7m barrels a day - to offset predicted shortfalls, it said.

The organisation believes output from the world's oil fields is declining at 9%. "Current global trends in energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable," the report states.

This problem is magnified as the oil giants are pulling out of projects in places like Kazakhstan and Canada as the low price means costly excavations are no longer viable.

The IEA estimates that firms like Shell and BP need to invest $350bn a year to replace older wells as well as meet demand from fast growing economies like China.

[Nayak]

Qatar to sign security agreement with India

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topics/a ... rent_id=16

QATAR will become the second country in the Gulf region after Sultanate of Oman to have a security pact with India, The Indian Express, one of the prominent newspapers in the south Asian nation reported.

According to the newspaper, India is expected to sign a strategic partnership agreement with Qatar, which will include co-operation in defence and security matters, during Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s four-day visit to Oman and Qatar beginning this Saturday. Singh will be in Qatar on November 9 and 10.

Manmohan Singh will be the first Indian Prime Minister to visit Qatar. Last year, then India’s Defence Secretary Shekhar Dutt visited the nation and identified areas for co-operation, including training of personnel, joint exercises and service-to-service information sharing.

A delegation from Qatar then visited several defence locations in India and three areas, including vacancies for Qatar’s officers in training courses at higher military education institutions, leasing of artillery firing ranges for practice and training, hiring of firing ranges for mechanised forces, were identified for co-operation.

[shyamd]

Debka is reporting that the Israeli's are looking at a proposal for Israel to join the EU as well as NATO. 4 European governments reckon Israel has more to offer. The Italians are big proponents of this. A team of military, political and intelligence experts have been set up to assess the implications and benefits of joining the EU and NATO. They think it might be worthwhile for Israel to take EU membership, but have not come to a complete decision yet. Sarkozy would also like to invite Morocco and invite other nations from the Maghreb later(My comment: Has he gone bonkers??)

Disclaimer: This information that I have posted does not represent my personal view.

Syria’s Assad cooks up Mossad-Saudi-al Qaeda plot to discredit pro-Western Lebanese government

Syrian president Bashar Assad has drawn encouragement to go ahead with a drive to recover his grip on Lebanon from signals coming in from Barack Obama’s team and from the peace overtures of Israeli transitional prime minister Ehud Olmert, DEBKAfile’s Beirut sources report.

To this end, the Syrian president has concocted an improbable disinformation cocktail which brings together the al Qaeda-linked Fatah al-Islam terrorist organization, Saudi intelligence and the Israeli Mossad. This mix is designed to be explosive enough to discredit the Lebanese majority leader Saad Hariri and oust the pro-western government which stands in the way of Syria’s domination of Beirut.

Thursday night, Nov. 6, Syrian state TV paraded four Fatah al-Islam terrorists who are charged with bombing Syrian security installations on the Damascus airport road on Sept. 27 at the cost of 17 lives. Shown with them were documents “proving” that a Saudi businessman had bankrolled the attack as the manager of this al Qaeda-linked organization’s bank account.

Wafaa el-Abassi, daughter of the Fatah al-Islam leader, appeared next to “reveal” that she had heard her father say he had received moneys from Saad Hariri’s Mustaqbal Movement in Beirut.

Syria has taken to using Fatah al-Islam as a multitask tool for its propaganda needs, including the pretext for its military concentrations around Lebanon’s borders.

When he met US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice in New York last month, Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem explained that Syria was forced to encircle Lebanon after Fatah al-Islam seized control of the northern Lebanese Tripoli region on orders from al Qaeda.

DEBKAfile’s sources report that with two ingredients of Damascus’ disinformation cocktail in place, Damascus is ready to go with the third.

The alleged Lebanese Mossad spy, whose detention was first revealed on Nov. 1, is about to be identified as Ali Jarrah, who was employed jointly by the Israeli Mossad and the Lebanese Saad Hariri. Damascus earlier implicated the spy in the murder of Hizballah’s military chief Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus last February.

This “revelation” is meant to close the disinformation noose around Hariri’s neck and undermine the reputation of anti-Syrian government leaders in Beirut as the sheet anchor of stable government in Lebanon.

Assad is presenting them instead as the hub of a roaring trade in operational plans, intelligence and funds among terror groups linked to al Qaeda, Saudi intelligence and the Israeli Mossad.

Israeli intelligence sources are highly critical of Olmert’s willingness to put up with Assad’s defamations of Israeli intelligence without protest for the sake of his prospective dialogue with Syria. Foreign minister Tzipi Livni and defense minister Ehud Barak are equally faulted for their failure to fight back.

[shyamd]

India, Qatar to sign pacts on defence & security

MUSCAT: India and Qatar will sign two agreements on defence and security during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to the Gulf nation beginning Sunday evening - the first by an Indian head of government.
Apart from the two pacts, the two sides will also discuss a number of other issues ranging from energy security to bilateral trade.

“The visit by the prime minister of India has been long overdue. Qatar’s Amir (Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa Al-Thani) visited India twice,” an Indian embassy official said from Doha.

“Qatar is the only country (in the Gulf) with which India has had long-term security co-operation. During the course of the visit of the prime minister, two key agreements will be signed - one on defence co-operation and another on security and law enforcement,” he said.

According to the Indian official, the defence agreement will also include the issue of maritime security. “The agreement on security and law enforcement will cover issues like common threat perceptions and sharing of data,” he said.

As for energy security, India will seek to significantly upgrade its current deal with gas-rich Qatar. At 25 trillion cubic metres, Qatar has the world’s third largest gas reserves, comprising 15% of the world’s total.

Nine years ago, India had signed an agreement for exporting 7.5 million tonnes of liquefied gas from Qatar annually in two phases.

“We want to get over the current buyer-seller relationship (in gas) and upgrade it to a more sustainable partnership,” Kohli said.

Apart from defence and energy security, bilateral trade will also come up for discussion. India is Qatar’s third largest export partner after Japan and Singapore.

“Bilateral trade between India and Qatar now stands at $3.3 billion and is significantly tilted in favour of Qatar because much of it is accounted for by gas exports,” he said.

Qatar’s exports to India stand at $2.6 billion while India’s share is $700 million. India’s exports to Qatar mainly comprise consumer items, foodstuff and industrial equipment.

With consumers in that country becoming highly quality conscious, there is scope for significantly increasing Indian exports.

According to the official, delegation level talks will be held between the two sides soon after the prime minister’s arrival on Sunday evening. The next day, Manmohan Singh will have a meeting with Qatar’s amir. Petroleum minister Murli Deora, minister for overseas Indian affairs Vayalar Ravi and minister of state for foreign affairs E Ahamed will be accompanying Dr Singh.

National security adviser M K Narayanan and deputy chairman of Planning Commission Montek Singh Ahluwalia will also be part of the entourage.

Apart from his parleys with the Qatari leadership, Singh will also meet representatives of the large Indian community. Qatar is home to around 420,000 expatriate Indians. India has one of the oldest labour welfare agreements with Qatar dating back to 1975, an additional protocol to which was signed last year.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister arrived at Muscat today on a two-day visit, during which India and Oman will set up a $100 million investment fund and sign an agreement for protecting the interests of Indians working in the Gulf country.

Singh, on his first visit to any Gulf country in his four and a half year tenure as Prime Minister, was warmly received by Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Fahd bin Mahmoud bin Mohammed Al Said at the airport.

[Philip]

(Alleged) Israeli spies linked to murder of Hezbollah chief
(The man responsible for the wrost terror acts in the region)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 114415.ece

Two brothers seized in Lebanon are accused of a role in the death of a Hezbollah chief
Uzi Mahnaimi in Tel Aviv

Two brothers held in Lebanon as Israeli spies are linked to a team responsible for the assassination of a notorious terrorist leader, Lebanese security sources have claimed.

Ali Jarrah, 50, a Lebanese citizen, and his brother Youssef, from Marj in the Bekaa valley, were arrested last week by the Lebanese army, which charged them with espionage. A third suspect has also been held, sources close to the investigation said. All three face the death penalty.

The spy ring has been linked to the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh, a leading figure in Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi’ite militia, who was killed in a bomb blast in Damascus in February. Hezbollah’s leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, blamed Israel for the attack and vowed to take revenge.

Mughniyeh has long been a target for Israel and America. He was responsible for bombing the US marine barracks and embassy in Beirut in 1983, in which more than 350 died, and was behind an attack on the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992, which killed 29.

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One source suggested the brothers may have been “spotters”, part of an observation team that monitored Mughniyeh’s movements shortly before his death. Others said there was no direct evidence of this. According to the Lebanese army, Jarrah and his brother were found to possess “communication devices and other sophisticated equipment”.

Lebanese investigators impounded a Mitsubishi Pajero 4x4 parked in front of Jarrah’s home. The vehicle was said to be fitted with advanced surveillance equipment.

“Some equipment was found in his house; other items were hidden in a vehicle,” said a security official who claimed the men had also been monitoring the movement of officials crossing the Syrian-Lebanese border.

According to Lebanese sources, the Jarrah brothers were recruited by Israel during the 1980s, when the Israeli army controlled large swathes of southern Lebanon.

Ali Jarrah is said to have joined militant Palestinian groups, which enabled him to travel between Lebanon and Syria and move around Damascus without attracting suspicion.

Sources close to the investigation said Jarrah had confessed to having been recruited by the Israelis to gather intelligence on militant Palestinian organisations in Lebanon.

Only in recent years had he started to monitor senior figures in Hezbollah, it was claimed. A statement issued by the Lebanese army said the two men had admitted to “gathering information on political party offices and monitoring the movements of party figures for the enemy”.

The Beirut paper As-Safir reported that during the war with Israel in southern Lebanon in 2006, Jarrah was seen with a video camera at relief centres connected to Hezbollah. “Was he pinpointing security targets in the Bekaa?” it asked.

According to the paper, investigators are attempting to determine whether a video camera fixed inside Jarrah’s car was directly connected by a satellite link to controllers in Israel.

Since the death of Mughniyeh, who was killed instantly when a booby-trapped headrest in his 4x4 exploded, Hezbollah has been determined to track down his assassins.

The brothers had apparently been frequent visitors to the Kfar Sousa district of Damascus where Mughniyeh, who had an American bounty of $5m (£3.2m) on his head, was finally identified.

According to some reports, Jarrah was first picked up in the southern suburbs of Beirut by Hezbollah security men on July 7, after being suspected of having had a role in Mughniyeh’s assassination.

Hezbollah is said to have finally handed Jarrah to the Lebanese authorities after questioning him for nearly four months.

According to Lebanese security sources, the brothers are distantly related to Ziad Jarrah, one of the hijackers of United Airlines Flight 93, which crashed into a Pennsylvania field on September 11, 2001, killing everyone on board. Their families come from the same town in the Bekaa valley.

The Israeli government has refused to comment on the arrests.


PS:That the brothers are related to one of the 9/11 hijackers is an intriguing fact if true.This should be explored fruther.

[shyamd]

Revealed by al Manar (Hezbollah TV), the visit of CIA director Michael Hayden to Beirut did not happen. 2 CIA officials of less rank turned up for a briefing on the arrest of a previously unknown group that had amassed a huge arsenal and explosives with the intention of carrying out attacks in Lebanon. Several members of the unit are currently in custody and being interrogated by Lebanese authorities but their chief, managed to escape. The explosives seized in the raids have been sent abroad, to France for analysis. The origin of the explosives and other material seized when the group was rolled up is not known, nor who is behind the planned series of attacks in central Lebanon.

Disclaimer: This information that I have posted does not represent my personal view.

[Philip]

If rivalry and enmity between Jews and Arabs in the region were sad enough,here is how the Christian Orthodox community spread the message of Christian love!

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/commen ... 121217.ece

Riot police called as monks clash in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre
Israeli riot police rushed into one of Christianity's holiest churches Sunday and arrested two clergyman after an argument between monks erupted into a brawl next to the site of Jesus' tomb.

The clash between Armenian and Greek Orthodox monks broke out in the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, revered as the site of Jesus' crucifixion, burial and resurrection.

Dozens of worshippers traded kicks and punches, knocking down tapestries and toppling decorations at the site in Arab East Jerusalem.

The brawling began during the Feast of the Cross, a procession of Armenian clergymen commemorating the 4th-century discovery of the cross believed to have been used to crucify Jesus.

Times Archive
1834: Shocking catastrophe at the Holy Sepulchre
1961: Copts and Ethiopians dispute at Holy Sepulchre

Warring monks threaten holy site
Clerical fists fly in holiest of places

The Greeks objected to the march without one of their monks present, fearing that otherwise, the procession would subvert their own claim to the Edicule — the ancient structure built on what is believed to be the tomb of Jesus — and give the Armenians a claim to the site.

The Armenians refused, and when they tried to march the Greek Orthodox monks blocked their way, sparking the brawl.

Police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld said police were forced to intervene after fighting was reported. They arrested two monks, one from each side.

A bearded Armenian monk in a red-and-pink robe and a black-clad Greek Orthodox monk with a bloody gash on his forehead were both taken away in handcuffs after scuffling with dozens of riot police.

Six Christian sects divide control of the ancient church. They regularly fight over turf and influence, and Israeli police are occasionally forced to intervene.

"We were keeping resistance so that the procession could not pass through ... and establish a right that they don't have," a young Greek Orthodox monk with a cut next to his left eye told AP.

The monk, who gave his name as Serafim, said he sustained the wound when an Armenian punched him from behind and broke his glasses.

Father Pakrat of the Armenian Patriarchate said the Greek demand was "against the status quo arrangement and against the internal arrangement of the Holy Sepulchre." He said the Greeks attacked first.

Archbishop Aristarchos, the chief secretary of the Greek Orthodox patriarchate, denied his monks initiated the violence.

After the brawl, the church was crowded with Israeli riot police holding assault rifles, standing beside Golgotha, where Jesus is believed to have been crucified, and the long smooth stone marking the place where tradition holds his body was laid out.

The feud is only one of a bewildering array of rivalries among churchmen in the Holy Sepulchre.

The Israeli government has long wanted to build a fire exit in the church, which regularly fills with thousands of pilgrims and has only one main door, but the sects cannot agree where the exit will be built.

A ladder placed on a ledge over the entrance sometime in the 19th century has remained there ever since because of a dispute over who has the authority to take it down.

More recently, a spat between Ethiopian and Coptic Christians is delaying badly needed renovations to a rooftop monastery that engineers say could collapse.

[Avinash R]

India, Oman to step up defence ties

Oman seeks help from Indian armed forces for supply systems

MUSCAT: India and Oman have agreed to step up defence cooperation by upgrading their joint naval exercises. India also appreciated the Omani gesture of providing berthing facilities for its warship which is patrolling the piracy-hit waters off the shores of Somalia where 18 Indians are currently being held hostage by pirates.

Oman, considered the closest to India among the Gulf Cooperation Countries, is already being offered training cooperation of its officers and men in Indian military training institutions.

The issue of stepping up defence cooperation was discussed during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s three-day visit to the Gulf countries. Among top security officials accompanying him are National Security Adviser M.K. Narayanan and Defence Secretary Vijay Singh.

After concluding his engagements in Oman, the Prime Minister later left for Qatar where he is expected to sign two agreements in the defence sphere.

Both sides are still discussing the text of the agreements and the likelihood of inking the pacts is high, official sources told The Hindu.

They said the joint naval exercise with Oman, named “Tamar-al-Tahir” (Benign Fruit), would be increased in complexity from next year. The upgraded naval exercises at the mouth of the Straits of Hormuz, through which a large proportion of the world’s oil flows, would be renamed “Naseem-al-Bahar” (Sea Breeze).
Sharing practices

“The idea is to get on a different level of operations and share the best practices with each other. The move to step up security ties is in keeping with the memorandum on defence cooperation signed in December 2005,” said the sources.

Oman and India have been regularly exchanging ship visits and the last ship from the Royal Omani Navy visited India in April last year. Indian warships, on the other hand, have been visiting Oman more frequently, the sources pointed out.

“In the development of relations between our two countries, we have our security and defence. We have reviewed the developments in our region and international and altogether I go back with a great sense of satisfaction that the political leadership of Oman and of India are united in their resolve to cement our relationship into a mighty strategic partnership,” noted Dr. Singh.

Oman has also sought assistance from the Indian armed forces to set up credible supply systems for their defence equipment.

In the past, the sources pointed out that the Indian Navy has provided hydrological assistance to Qatar in order to help it develop fishing harbours as well as chalk out plans for off-shore pipelines.

With Qatar, the only Gulf country with which India has a defence cooperation agreement, discussions will centre exchange of data and beefing up defences against the possibility of disruption of sea lanes or sabotage of offshore installations.

India recently conducted a small scale naval exercise with Qatar named “Incisive Falcon” for which it dispatched a frontline warship. This is indicative of the increasing convergence of views and the need to work more closely.

[shyamd]

Excellent news!
India, Qatar ink key defence cooperation pact

Ammar Zaidi
Doha, Nov 10 (PTI) Taking bilateral ties to a new high, India and Qatar have signed a landmark defence cooperation pact, described by officials as an agreement "just short of stationing troops" in the oil-rich Gulf region.

Within hours of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's touchdown here last evening on the second leg of his three-day maiden visit to the Gulf, the two sides signed agreements on defence and security, dealing with key areas like maritime security, intelligence sharing on terrorism, money laundering and transnational crime.

The defence cooperation pact addresses security concerns of Qatar and seeks to safeguard India's interest, officials said.

"The agreement is just short of stationing troops (in the region)," a top Indian official said.

Joint training exercises, training of personnel and maritime cooperation are highlights of the landmark pact inked by Defence Secretary Vijay Singh and his Qatari counterpart last evening after Singh led delegation-level talks with his counterpart Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor al Thani.

The defence pact lays out a structure for joint maritime security and training as well as exchange of visits.

Another agreement on law and security enforcement was signed by Minister of State for External Affairs E Ahamed and his Qatari counterpart.

The pact deals with issues such as money laundering and transnational crimes. It lays out framework for sharing of information and database on threats posed by extremists and other security and legal matters, officials said. PTI

India-Gulf free trade pact likely by 2009

[Rony]

India, Qatar ink key defence cooperation pact

Ammar Zaidi
Doha, Nov 10 (PTI) Taking bilateral ties to a new high, India and Qatar have signed a landmark defence cooperation pact, described by officials as an agreement "just short of stationing troops" in the oil-rich Gulf region.

Compare that with this from vivek raghuvanshi

India, Qatar Discuss Defense Cooperation

India has struck a defense agreement with Qatar which includes the possibilities of stationing Indian troops in the Arab country, sources in the Indian Defence Ministry said

[shyamd]

Significant defence pacts with Qatar: PM

On Board Air India One, Nov 11 (IANS) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has described as “very, very significant”, the two defence pacts that were signed with Qatar during his visit to the Gulf nation that concluded Monday.”The two agreements are very, very significant. They are not just about intelligence sharing but about maritime security as well,” he told reporters on board his special aircraft while returning home from a two-nation visit to the Gulf.

[Lalmohan]

Since Qatar is now the main USAF operating base in the ME the deal with India has much wider implications regarding regional security arrangements - most probably starting with an understanding between Unkil and India about how to carve up the region. Not sure that this will be well regarded by the Iranians.

I hope at the very least the M2K's can now be transfered over to India as the Qataris switch to F16's.

[shyamd]

Keep in mind all this arose due to the Iranian threat. I wonder how this will impact relations with Iran. Qatar does play the peacemaker in the middle east after intervening in the Lebanese crisis by calling a summit. I think Iranians will criticise Delhi, but this deal is putting India in its rightful place in the Middle East. India will get a hell a lot of intelligence from the GCC, on happenings in the region.

India not to station troops in Qatar: official

Ammar Zaidi
Onboard PM's Special Aircraft, Nov 11 (PTI) India will not station any troops in Qatar under the landmark defence and security cooperation agreements it signed with Doha but will go to the rescue if the latter's interests are threatened, a top official said today.

"The defence and security cooperation agreements are the only one of the kind that India has signed with any country," he said.

Under the agreements, New Delhi has committed to protect assets and interests of Qatar from external threats. "The agreements are short of stationing troops," the official said but did not elaborate the form in which India will go to Qatar's rescue in case of a threat.

Qatar has a large US troops stationed on its soil but wanted more "comfort" and had been pursuing the deal with India since 2005.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, on his way back from the three-day visit to Gulf region, said the agreements pertain to maritime security and sharing of intelligence on threats posed by terrorists.

"We are living through dangerous times. Terrorism is a reality. Piracy on high seas is a reality and also trafficking and counterfeit currency is a reality. So, in all these matters, these agreements will help us establish a line of communication and facilitate investigation of crime," he said.

The defence pact lays out a structure for joint maritime security and training as well as exchange of visits, while the agreement on security and law enforcement lays out the framework for sharing of information and data base on threats posed by extremists and other security and legal matters. PTI

[ramana]

I dont know what Roof Afzha flavor the offcial was drinking. Such agreements are not worth the paper they are written on unless there are ground troops as trip wire to show commitment.

I think this is the background. India and Iran had an agreement in the 2003 time frame. Now that Iran is in bad books, there is a need to comepsate India for the loss of the benefits of the Iran agreement. Hence the Qatar agreement was signed. Iran is less likely to confront India. So its a Qatar insurance policy. And Qatar has been asking for this from 1992. In return India gets info on criminals and martime visiting rights.

It also means less empahsis for Central Command eventually. I dont know if its the East of Aden policy redux for the Fifth Fleet. The top offcial might be on Jack Daniels if he wants India to pick up the tab for policing the Gulf like in Colonial times and not get any policy benefits.

The British used to foot the bill for the Aden etc deployments to British India ledger. IOW India paid for the British imperial presence in the Gulf.

[vavinash]

Any details on what this accord covers in relation to military and defence cooperation? Does IN have berthing rights like in Oman? Doesn't India use land route from Iran to send supplies to afghanistan? How will this affect it? What about Indo-russian ties? Russia is not pushing into indian ocean but will maintain presence in neighboring Mediterranean with bases in tripoli and syria.

[shyamd]

Sinai Bedouin in armed revolt against Egypt, snatch general

DEBKAfile’s military sources reveal that for five days, around 1,000 armed young Bedouin tribesmen have been holding Egyptian positions along the Sinai-Israeli border south of Rafah to siege.

The besiegers, mostly Tarabin, Azazme and Tihama tribesmen, have shut the troops in and reinforcements and supplies out. Egyptian General Mohammed Shaarawai and 50 soldiers were taken hostage until the insurrectionists’ demands are met.

Three Bedouin were killed and an Egyptian officer and three soldiers injured in a clash that took place Tuesday, Nov. 11 - at the 19th stone on the Egyptian-Israeli border 18 kilometers south of Rafah.

The gun battles erupted Saturday, Nov. 11, when Egyptian troops posted at the Nitzana border post opened fire on a suspected drug smugglers’ truck, killing the Bedouin driver.

Hundreds of armed tribesmen in pick-up trucks bent on revenge swarmed to the scene and began shooting up the Egyptian border guards.

Tuesday evening, Bedouin boosted their siege force against the Egyptian posts. Wednesday, the Bedouin offensive assumed the form of an organized uprising when their chief commander handed the Egyptian officers a list of eight demands for lifting the siege and releasing their captives:

1. All Bedouin incarcerated in Egypt or Sinai must be unconditionally released,

2. Court sentences passed by Egyptian courts against Bedouin, some in absentia, must be annuled.

3. Egyptian security operations in the Sinai Peninsula must honor Bedouin customs,

4. Egyptian officers and troops guilty of crimes against the Bedouin population should be prosecuted.

5. Egyptian officers proved to have violated the Sinai population’s social fabric must be fired.

6. Cairo must formally recognize Bedouin property rights over their places of habitation and grazing lands.

7. Egypt must funnel funds to ease poverty and unemployment in the Peninsula.

8. A comprehensive three-year development plan for all of Sinai.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources note that many Bedouin were hunted down and detained by Egyptian police after the string of al Qaeda terrorist attacks against tourists and Egyptians in Sinai between 2004 and 2006 and accused of complicity. Tourists were warned off the scenic peninsula in recent years, taking with them jobs and aggravating Bedouin poverty. Land ownership is a sore point for the semi-nomatic desert tribesmen. Some of their lands on the enchanting Sinai coasts have been impounded for hotel operators. The Bedouin are increasingly hostile to the Egyptian authorities and simmer on the brink of insurrection.

This turbulence also poses hazards for Israel. With Egyptian border police out of action on the Sinai-Israeli border, DEBKAfile’s military sources warn that the way is wide open for large-scale Palestinian terrorist elements to slip across into Israel for terrorist attacks.

[shyamd]

India: PM vows to defend tiny Qatar 'if needed'

New Delhi, 12 Nov. (AKI/Asian Age) - In a clear indication that India’s strategic sphere of influence is rapidly expanding beyond its immediate neighbourhood, the Indian government has agreed "to go to the rescue of Qatar, if Qatar requires it."

In marked contrast to the previous government, blocking US-backed moves by his deputy L.K. Advani to station Indian troops in Afghanistan, persistent efforts since 2005 by the tiny, energy-rich Gulf nation of Qatar to get a security deal bore fruit when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh agreed to protect Qatar’s considerable assets — petroleum and gas fields and sea lanes — if they were in peril.

"We will go to the rescue of Qatar if Qatar requires it, in whatever form it takes," an official said as Singh concluded a visit to the energy rich Gulf state, even as an Indian naval vessel thwarted attempts by pirates to hijack a vessel off the pirate infested waters off the coast of Somalia.

The Indian Navy has been deployed off the Gulf of Aden for a little over a month.

Qatar has been most persistent, and being a tiny country, the energy rich nation was concerned about its own security, despite a large US base, strategically placed at the narrow mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, from where Washington monitors nuclear Iran, an unstable Iraq and China’s growing footprint in the region, especially in developing the Pakistani port city of Gwadar.

Officials downplayed the agreement’s significance, saying it would not be a precursor to similar agreements with other friendly Gulf countries like Oman, saying: "India will not station troops in any foreign country. We don’t want to fight other people’s wars in foreign countries. This agreement is Qatar-specific."

The landmark security pact is however part of a larger area of cooperation where India and Qatar will work together to fight terrorism and cooperate on tackling transnational crime. A greater Indian naval presence could be seen in the Gulf as US troops shift their focus to Afghanistan-Pakistan.

[Philip]

A Middle East peace without Syria is an impossibility,as Israel still occupies large areas of Syrian territory,including the strategic Golan heights.Efforts to bring Syria into the peace process have been a faliure,especially recently after the israeli raid on a suspected secret Syrian nuclear facility in the making.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 15857.html

Britain in push to bring Syria in from the cold

Foreign Secretary David Miliband accepts invitation to visit Damascus after 'important change in approach'

By Anne Penketh, Diplomatic Editor
Thursday, 13 November 2008

Bashar al-Assad: Humiliated Tony Blair with lecture on suicide bombers
Robert Fisk: Double agents, car bombs and antics worthy of James Bond

UN leak angers Damascus

The Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, will travel to Damascus next Monday for the highest-level political talks between Britain and Syria since Tony Blair was publicly humiliated by the Syrian President in 2001.

Seizing back the initiative from France, which has led European efforts to end Syria's diplomatic isolation, Mr Miliband said yesterday that he had accepted Syria's invitation as a result of an "important change in approach" by Damascus. The Foreign Secretary said he recognised the "constructive" role Syria could play in reaching a comprehensive solution for the Middle East, at a time when the Syrians have engaged in indirect talks with Israel in Turkey.

He also pointed to Syria's establishment of diplomatic relations with its neighbour Lebanon and its efforts to curtail foreign fighters and weapons into Iraq as signs of greater co-operation by Damascus.

But the visit is not expected to produce concrete agreements and will not focus on trade issues, according to Foreign Office sources.

The Syrian embassy said the visit had been scheduled in the light of the "positive and important regional role of Syria" and came at a time of "greatly improved bilateral ties" between Syria and Britain.

Although Britain hopes that Syria can be prised away from its embrace of Iran, which arms militant Islamic factions hostile to Israel in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories, the Government has dropped its insistence that Syria should end its support for Hamas and Hizbollah after Damascus rejected any "preconditions" to improving relations.

The Syrian Foreign Minister, Walid al-Moualem, stressed during a visit to London two weeks ago that Syria would continue to have "very good relations" with Iran.

It is not clear whether Mr Miliband will meet President Bashar al-Assad, although he has asked to see the Syrian leader, who trained as an ophthalmologist in London.

The Blair government courted President Assad by dispatching secret envoys and government officials but the strategy did not always meet with success, as Mr Blair discovered at a press conference in Damascus in October 2001, a month after the twin towers attacks, when he was subjected to a humiliating lecture in which Mr Assad defended Palestinian suicide bombers. The following year Mr Assad was rewarded by a visit to Downing Street and tea with the Queen.

Mr Miliband said he had been pressing Syria for co-operation on counter-terrorism, Lebanon, Iraq and the Middle East peace process for the past 15 or 16 months. Both countries had expressed satisfaction at the results of the Syrian Foreign Minister's visit to London on 27 October, the day after US special forces raided Syria, and now want to raise the relationship to "a greater degree of trust", said a Foreign Office source.

British officials said that both the Bush administration and Israel were aware of Mr Miliband's Syria plans.

* Iran test-fired a new generation surface-to-surface missile yesterday, state media said. Iran's Defence Minister, Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, said the Iranian-made missile named Sejil had a range of 1,200 miles.

[Philip]

Fisk on the "007" style happenings in Lebanon.Spinechilling!

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/co ... 15858.html

Robert Fisk: Double agents, car bombs and antics worthy of James Bond

A mystery visitor leads our man in Beirut to wonder what Syria was up to when it aired a mass confession on state TV

Thursday, 13 November 2008

The explosion in Beirut in February 2005 that killed the former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri

When it comes to spy stories, Ian Fleming couldn't match Lebanon – and Sister Syria – for the kind of head-spinning espionage and murder mystery now engulfing the Levant. The contents page must include the murder of a prominent pro-Iranian kidnapper and guerrilla leader in Damascus, Israeli Mossad spies, bomb explosions in both Lebanon and Syria, claims that the pro-American son of an assassinated ex-prime minister in Beirut funds an Islamist killer group – not to mention an intriguing connection to the Lebanese hijacker of United Flight 93 on 11 September 2001. If the tale is even half-true – and I've had a visitation from a Syrian suggesting his countrymen believe quite a lot of it – there has to be a bid for the film rights.

On 14 February 2005, the former prime minister and billionaire Rafik Hariri – along with 21 others – was liquidated by a massive bomb on the Beirut Corniche. The Americans and much of Lebanon suspected his Syrian enemies were to blame, and the United Nations set up an international inquiry – now the longest running police investigation in the world – into his death. The cops fingered Syria, and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus protested its innocence. A further series of murders and a bloody battle between pro-Syrian, pro-Iranian Hizbollah fighters and gunmen paid by the majority Future Movement MP Saad Hariri (son of the aforesaid Rafik) finished up with a conference in Doha which ensured that Lebanon's pro-American prime minister would lead a cabinet whose pro-Syrian opposition would have veto powers over cabinet decisions.

Add to this a prolonged siege by the Lebanese army last year to eject Palestinian Islamists of the Fatah al-Islam movement from the Nahr el-Bared refugee camp (total dead around 400, including more than 140 soldiers) and a televised "confession" by survivors of the group in Syria last
weekend which fingered Saad Hariri for a suicide bombing in Damascus, and still the story doesn't end. Syria this year agreed for the first time in its history to open formal diplomatic relations with Lebanon. It should be quite a relationship.

The latest chapter began last week when Lebanese soldiers reportedly arrested two brothers – Ali and Yussef Jarrah – as Lebanese agents of the Israeli Mossad intelligence service. They had, Lebanese authorities claimed, staked out the Kfar Sousa district of Damascus prior to the February car bombing death of Imad Mougnieh, a specialist in the kidnapping of Westerners in Beirut in the mid-1980s. Ali Jarrah is said to have belonged to Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command, the outfit many Arabs (though not the Scottish courts) believe set off the bomb on the TWA flight over Lockerbie in 1988.

The Sunni Muslim Jarrah brothers are distant relatives of the 9/11 hijacker Ziad Jarrah who piloted United 93 into the ground – if it wasn't shot down – in Pennsylvania. But now the tale becomes even darker. Jarrah was apparently also arrested in Damascus and "questioned" by the Syrian secret police about his supposed links with Fatah al-Islam, the weird and heavily bearded Palestinian group which declared war on the Lebanese army last year. At the time, the Lebanese insisted that the organisation – with the usual spread of Arab gunmen from Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Algeria – had been sent into the country by Syria to cause anarchy and mayhem in the newly restored democracy of Lebanon. The group's leader, Chakar Absi, mysteriously escaped when the battles ended.

Yet this weekend, Chakar Absi's chadored daughter Wafa, along with 10 dozen rueful-looking men, appeared on Syrian state television to announce that Fatah al-Islam and its "head of security" – a certain Taha Hussein Abdel-Baki al-Hussein al-Walid – had organised the suicide bombing of civilians in a Damascus street on 27 September in an attempt to overthrow Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime. The bombing was carried out by a Saudi and the organisation, according to the somewhat frightened men on the television screen, obtained funds from "Salafist groups" and Saudis and – here was the dagger in the story – from the Future Movement and the Lebanese BankMed financial institution, both run by Saad Hariri, son of the Lebanese ex-premier killed in 2006.

The US journalist Seymour Hersh has already hinted in The New Yorker that Hariri money – and even American money – had been given to Fatah al-Islam, but Syria's TV spectacular was on a far greater scale. Hariri immediately denounced the claim.

No one, of course, doubts that Syria's principal concern remains the UN's international tribunal into Rafik Hariri's murder. In 2005, The Independent was the first to announce the forthcoming international court – an event that prompted President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt to fly to Syria to tell Mr Assad how serious his position had become – and since then, two young Syrian men have turned up in Beirut to ask my thoughts on whether the tribunal will formally accuse anyone of Hariri's murder.

The second man arrived last week, anxious over coffee to know if the UN would point the finger at Syria. I suggested that the Syrian Baath Party security apparatus – though not the president – might indeed know more than it has been revealing. The young man then questioned me about an article in The Irish Times in which Hariri was allegedly reported as saying he wanted "a road from Beirut to Tel Aviv". No such article has ever appeared in The Irish Times.

The young man, who described himself as a reporter for Syria's first non-government television station – an institution I had never heard of – left without learning anything more than I had myself reported in The Independent. But his questions mirrored Syria's own preoccupation with the UN inquiry. Already, one of the UN's regular reports was censored in New York to delete the names of Syrian officials who might have been involved in Hariri's murder, and there is a growing fear in Lebanon that the Americans – in their desire to persuade Syria to hinder the flow of insurgents into Iraq – may be prepared to close down the UN tribunal. All of which makes the US helicopter strike into Syria this month against alleged al-Qa'ida fighters all the more mysterious.

Then just two days ago, another of the Fatah al-Islam men named on Syrian television by his former colleagues as responsible for the September car-bombing in Damascus was seized by Lebanese troops.

Needless to say – as always in the Levant – everybody is innocent. Hariri denies any connection with Fatah al-Islam, the Syrians deny they murdered Hariri and the Israelis say Mossad was never involved in Mougnieh's Damascus death. The only certainty is that Hariri is dead. So is Mougnieh. So are a lot of Syrian and Lebanese civilians. And – given the bizarre connection with 9/11 – a lot of Americans too.

Syria and Lebanon: Who's who

Bashar al-Assad

The British-educated Syrian President who fears destabilisation from long-running UN inquiry into the assassination of Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Syria denies involvement.

Saad Hariri

Son of Rafik Hariri and leader of the anti-Syrian party, Future Movement. Accused by members of Fatah al-Islam of involvement in a car bombing in Damascus on 27 September, seen as an attempt to overthrow the Syrian President. He denies the claim.

Fatah al-Islam

Radical Sunni Islamist group, led by Palestinian refugee Chakar Absi, fought Lebanese army for control of the Palestinian refugee camp of Nahr el Bared in northern Lebanon last year.

Ali and Yussef Jarrah

Sunni Muslim brothers, arrested in connection with February assassination of Imad Moughnieh of Hizbollah.

[shyamd]

Resumed Gaza terror outcome of Israel’s passivity and over-reliance on Cairo

DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources report that the foundering of the Gaza truce amid renewed Hamas missile attacks and terrorist plots are the direct outcome of the Israeli government’s passive military stance and over-reliance on Egypt to pull its Palestinian chestnuts out of the fire. That is the predominant view of senior Israeli military officials, including commanders of the Southern Command.

The last six months, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak and foreign minister Tzipi Livni counted on Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak to heal the quarrel between the rival Palestinian Hamas and Fatah factions, pacify the Gaza Strip and extricate the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit from Hamas captivity.

Although Mubarak’s bid flopped and the Palestinians had been clearly preparing to revive their large-scale terror plots and missile blitz for some weeks, the government failed to revise its tactics, pre-empt the rising threat, or explain to the Israeli public what went wrong.

It was not until Nov. 11, when intelligence was received of a secret tunnel designed to facilitate a large-scale Hamas kidnap operation that a decision was taken to blow up the tunnel. The soldiers were ordered not to touch the Hamas special force assigned with the abductions or their operational headquarters at el Bureij.

Nonetheless, Hamas leaders decided to risk reviving their missile blitz and efforts to kidnap Israeli soldiers or civilians.

Senior officers in the Southern Command believe that a serious Hamas cross-border terrorist attack is on the way. Since Cairo’s mediation failure, no one there, in Damascus or even Riyadh exercises any control over the Hamas leadership in Gaza.

According to intelligence from Gaza, Hamas leaders have turned their backs on Egypt’s pacification efforts and moved on with their objective, which is to fight their Fatah rival, Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas to the finish, by dint of factional warfare and major clashes with Israel.

Israel’s government heads persist in ignoring this information. Indeed Olmert and Barak are at loggerheads on how to handle the escalating Gaza peril. This was apparent during their joint visit to the IDF’s Gaza division headquarters Wednesday, Nov. 12. The prime minister said that a large-scale military confrontation with Hamas is waiting at the end of the road, whereas Barak said that while action must be taken against terror threats, it is important to preserve the truce.

It was clear to the soldiers listening to them that the truce belonged to the past.

Suspense ahead of Hamas aggression was so high Thursday, Nov. 13, that Israel revoked the permission given a few hours earlier for a 30-truck convoy to pass through into the Gaza Strip with food and goods for the population. And a handing-over ceremony for the Gaza Division commanders was called off.

[ramana]

According to late Miles Copeland in his book "Game of Nations", Syria was the place where the US attempted its first coup as a dry run or practice to check out the technique in early 1950s.

[Avinash R]

Hamas fires long-range rockets at Israel
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081114/wl_ ... lestinians
Fri Nov 14, 1:00 pm ET

The armed wing of the Islamist group said it fired five Grad rockets, the longest-range weapon it has used against the Jewish state. Israel said they hit Ashkelon, north of Gaza on the Mediterranean coast, with no casualties.

The 1960s-era Soviet-made Grad rocket has a range of 25 km (15 miles). Two of them struck Ashkelon.

After the air strike, Hamas said it fired eight shorter-range Qassam rockets aimed at the city of Sderot.

Two Qassams hit, causing damage to buildings, an Israeli police spokesman said. One Israeli was treated for shrapnel wounds and a number of people suffered shock.

[shyamd]

Intelligence was pointing that Hamas had the Grad's ready to be used from late last year.


x post:
He has given Saud 2 new jobs, which is to work on US - Taliban negotiations and to work with Washington and TSP on issues.

King Abdullah is busy negotating an informal deal with Obama regarding financial assisstance, Abdullah has put a stiff political terms for any financial assistance.

[shyamd]

Al Qaeda says order given for US attack “far bigger than 9/11”

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources report that US president-elect Barack Obama, European and Russian heads of state in Washington for the G20 conference over the weekend were briefed about a probable early al Qaeda attack.

Obama and his team have been advised that a new al Qaeda strike is highly probable in the United States or against a key US target in Europe, North Africa or the Middle East.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly 372 of Nov. 14 disclosed that al Qaeda’s Yemen base, a reliable barometer for Osama bin Laden’s schemes, issued a Directive to All Fighters in Arabia on Nov. 9 presaging a major operation in the United States that will “change the political and economic world” and be “far bigger than 9/11.”

To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE .

The notice said “the operation is very near” and “precise instructions were in the hands of “the fighters, who are already on their way to America” armed with bin Laden’s orders. The pretext offered for the attack is the rejection by the US and Europe of al Qaeda’s four-year old truce offer whose original pre-condition was the withdrawal of their armies from Iraq and Afghanistan.

The day after the new president’s election, al Qaeda issued a little-noticed statement declaring Barack Obama a murtad, i.e. an apostate whose betrayal of Islam is judged the most heinous. Believers have the duty to execute a murtad unlike other non-believers whose death sentence is optional.

Thursday night, Nov. 14, Central Intelligence Director Gen. Michael Hayden said: “Al Qaeda, operating from its safe haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas, remains the most clear and present danger to the United States.” He was addressing a Washington think-tank.

“Today, virtually every major terrorist threat that my agency is aware of has threads back to the tribal areas. Whether it is command and control, training, direction, money, capabilities, there is a connection to the FATA (Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas.)”

Hayden also mentioned Yemen and Somalia as important al Qaeda theaters of operation.

In private, most heads of the intelligence agencies fighting al Qaeda admit that an attack on the United States or major American interest outside is only a matter of time.

[svinayak]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/world ... dubai.html

Emirates See Fiscal Crisis as Chance to Save Culture
Tamara Abdul Hadi for The New York Times

Men toured the aquarium at a Dubai mall, where foreigners outnumbered natives last week.

By MICHAEL SLACKMAN
Published: November 11, 2008

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The world financial crisis has hit Dubai’s economy, slamming the brakes on its surging development and dimming its gold rush status. Development projects are being delayed, tourism is expected to decline and the government is even exploring how to begin collecting taxes, once almost unthinkable in this freest of free market enclaves.

All this is troubling news for the fortune seekers who flocked here in recent years but a surprisingly welcome development in some respects for one group: Emirati natives, the 10 percent or so who trace their lineage to the Bedouins and traders who once had this baking sliver of sand to themselves.

Emiratis have fretted for years over the loss of their culture, as social norms became more a product of the newcomers than of the nationals. Now, some are pinning their desires for a cultural salvation on the global economic downturn, which they hope will reduce the number of foreigners pouring into their country and give them a chance to reassert their customs and way of life.

“This is a blessing; we needed it,” Abdul Khaleq Abdullah, a political science professor at United Arab Emirates University, said of the fiscal crisis. “The city needs to slow down and relax. It’s good for the identity of our country.

“The city reached the summit, but we knew every time we got closer to the top, we got closer tDubai and the six other emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates form a loose federation that gained independence in 1971. While always a commercial crossroads, a hub for trade and a center of the pearl industry, Dubai did not have its first concrete building until 1956. It relied on the Indian rupee as its currency until the early 1960s. Abu Dhabi, with its hefty oil reserves and huge wealth, was the political center of the emirates, its leader was the president of the federation.

At the highest levels, Dubai and Abu Dhabi worked together to transform Dubai into a global destination for investment and development. But there was also an undercurrent of competition, with Abu Dhabi taking a slower, more conservative, petro-fueled approach while Dubai moved so fast that, at times, it was compared to a theme park. But when the financial storms appeared, Dubai — with a debt of nearly $50 billion — turned to the federal government, which quickly agreed to inject billions of dollars.
o the edge, too,” he added. “That’s the feeling inside each Emirati. When we felt like we had it all, we also felt like we will lose it all.”

Indian rupee was the main currency of Dubai and its economic center was run by Indians till the 1960s.

[shyamd]

Some of the royals and nationals were "coolies" in Mumbai Port if my memory serves right.

[RajeshA]

The Arab Probe by Ghassan Charbel: The Journal of the Turkish Weekly

By Ghassan Charbel

One is supposed to cheerfully welcome any scientific or technological advancement achieved by a close or remote nation, especially if this advancement has nothing to do with an aggressive military project or a hegemonic scheme. Yet, I must admit that I was overtaken by frustration and envy when the news agencies circulated the story of the Indian probe. The India Space Research Organization announced that a tiny probe no bigger than a small TV set has landed on the moon as part of the first Indian unmanned lunar mission. The probe split from the satellite Chandrayaan-1 (which stands for lunar vehicle) on its way on a two-year mission to capture three dimensional images of the lunar surface, particularly in the two dark poles, in addition to searching for water or snow on that same surface and identifying the chemical structure of some rocks. This mission crowns the efforts by the India Space Research Organization that was established 45 years ago.

This event can be understood in light of the Indian-Chinese competition. Mao Zedong's nation no longer accepts to sit in the back seat whether in terms of economic or technological development. It no longer accepts American or Russian leadership in challenging fields, and Chinese scientists are currently busy with the preparations for sending a Chinese to the moon.

I felt envious. Had India followed our path, it would now been an ocean of the starving and unemployed. Instead, it chose a different path. It is true that hundreds of millions are still living at or below the poverty line, but it is also true that this nation, which has secured its position in the nuclear club, has also achieved massive progress in the computer and chip industries. With the scenarios predicting the rise of Asia in the coming phase, many states have already started building commercial, scientific and technological relations with the Indian giant. This is attributed to two reasons: India's success in rehabilitating itself to play a major role, and the desire of several states to keep the Chinese giant in check by formulating an alliance with the Indian giant.

My preoccupation with the Indian probe did not prevent me from following Arab news, which is always sweet and reassuring. Arab League Secretary General broke startling news to al-Mutanabbi's descendants when he announced that the Arab world's population of illiterates has now reached 100 million. This means that the illiterate in the Arab world easily constitute a population bigger than that of Germany - without counting the semi-illiterate and the technologically illiterate.

I was about to forget the story of the 100 million illiterates when I found myself facing other news. The First Arab Report on Cultural Development revealed that reading is not among the established habits of Arabs. The report noted that published books in the various fields of science and knowledge represent no more than 15% of all books published in the Arab world last year. It also noted that one book is published for every 12,000 Arabs versus one book for every 500 Britons and 900 Germans. In other words, the reading average in the Arab world is almost 4% of that in Britain.

I was taken by a sense of defeat that was doubled as I read about an incentive plan by the German government aiming at attracting brilliant researchers from all over the world. The plan offers deserving and willing researchers the opportunity to finance their projects on German territory with expected great returns, including the opportunity to restore German universities to the top ranks among the best universities in the world.

It is no secret that the future is made today, in schools, universities, research centers and technological institutes. Evidently we are losing the battle for the future. We are not asking for sending an Arab probe to the moon. We demand probing the Arab mind itself to find out how it has frozen and discover how we can bring its comatose state to an end. The largest party in the Arab world is the party of illiterates. The loudest voice in the Arab world is that of the semi-illiterate. This is horrific. The probe has to dig deep inside the Arab mind before it can find out what went wrong. We neither write nor read, and if we write, it is ancient language that we produce. This is why we have lost our status and this is why we envy the Indian probe. We have lost the space too and won nothing but the enjoyment of a pleasurable nap in front of TV screens.

Something for Indian Muslims to ponder over. Their Indian identity would be making them proud, and their Arab/Muslim identity would be making them envious as the years go by.

[Philip]

Britain re-establishes high-level intelligence links with Syria
(Atef Hassan/Reuters)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 181164.ece

Syria is known to have excellent intelligence on tracking the movements of Islamic extremists into Iraq
Richard Beeston, Catherine Philp and Oliver August

Britain re-established high-level intelligence links with the Syrian authorities as David Miliband made his landmark visit to Damascus yesterday, according to senior Syrian officials.

The move, first raised earlier this year at a meeting in New York between the Foreign Secretary and his Syrian counterpart, Walid Moualem, was a key objective of the Syrian visit. The newly revived intelligence relationship could be hugely beneficial to Britain. Syria is known to have one of the best intelligence-gathering systems in the Middle East, in particular in tracking the movements of Islamic extremists into Iraq and around the region.

“Miliband asked Moualem in New York whether he could re-establish intelligence links at a senior level” after lower level contacts, a Syrian official said. Mr Moualem invited Mr Miliband to take intelligence officials with him on the trip to Damascus.

Mr Miliband's visit, the first by a British foreign secretary for seven years, was touted as an opportunity to test Syria's willingness to engage with the West, lifting it out of its current isolation.

The time is right to seek a trade in allegiances
Miliband goes on a mission for peace
Miliband faces Israeli anger over West Bank goods

Washington has long insisted on isolating Syria but with a change of administration - and attitude - looming, Britain and France are leading efforts to lure Damascus out of the solitude it has found itself in since it was implicated in the murder of the former Lebanese Prime Minister, Rafiq Hariri, three years ago.

Mr Miliband urged Syria yesterday to take a more active role in the peace process between the Israelis and Palestinians by first reaching its own peace deal with the Jewish state. Damascus and Jerusalem have recently talked on four occasions under Turkish auspices.

Mr Miliband said: “We welcome the four rounds of talks that have taken place ... and we hope that they will be taken forward with new force.”

Mr Miliband met President Assad for the first time during his visit, which, it was hoped, would draw the attention of Barack Obama, the President-elect, away from America's economic malaise and back towards the Middle East.

In their first phone call since the US election, Gordon Brown emphasised that Mr Obama's foreign policy priority should be the Arab-Israeli conflict, which he sees as the key to other concerns in the region, including the threat of a nuclear Iran.

Joshua Landis, an American expert on Syria, said the visit was “a message from the British to Obama. Like the French, they want the US to push Syrian-Israeli peace. Negotiations between Syria and Israel began last May, but the Bush Administration was unhappy about the dialogue and refused to support them.”

Syria has long supported Hamas, which does not recognise Israel's right to exist and opposes the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's peace talks with it. Along with hosting exiled Hamas leaders, Syria also aids the Lebanese Shia movement Hezbollah. One of Israel's conditions for peace is that Damascus severs these links.

[ramana]

Intelligence was pointing that Hamas had the Grad's ready to be used from late last year.


x post:
He has given Saud 2 new jobs, which is to work on US - Taliban negotiations and to work with Washington and TSP on issues.

King Abdullah is busy negotating an informal deal with Obama regarding financial assisstance, Abdullah has put a stiff political terms for any financial assistance.

Who is he?

[shyamd]

Obama

[shyamd]

UAE Seeking Own Space reconnesaince Program. At present, the UAE's lone space installation is a Space Reconnaissance Center which is supplied with images mainly from the American Ikonos and South Korean Kampsat constellations, as well from Indian Remote Sensing satellites. The center turns its pictures over to the Directorate of Military Intelligence as well as the Air Force Air Operations Center. In a bid to build up its space observation capacity, the United Arab Emirates is organising a Global Space Technology Forum in Abu Dhabi between Nov. 16-18.

[shyamd]

UN mandate to tackle pirates essential, feels India

Sandeep Dikshit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Present flotilla of warships in the Arabian Sea inadequate

India mulling an increase in force levels

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



NEW DELHI: With pirates moving their operations into the high seas, the present flotilla of warships in the Arabian Sea is inadequate to check piracy, say security experts. Even as India is mulling an increase in force levels, it also realises that one nation or a grouping of nations is inadequate to provide an iron-clad guarantee of safe passage to lightly manned and entirely unarmed merchant vessels in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman.

India feels that the U.N. Security Council resolutions 1816 and 1838 and the International Maritime Organisation’s mandate offers the required flexibility for all the currently uncoordinated operations to be bunched under the United Nations flag. Besides improving communications if the UN mandate is granted, improved coordination would help counter the change in tactics of the pirates of moving from a narrow channel between Gulf of Aden and Bab-el-Mandab to well away from the coast line.

Till the UN mandate materialises, India would like to increase the number of its warships in the area from the present one to four and is about to enter into negotiations with the French for berthing and logistic facilities from its base in Djibouti.

The issue was discussed between Defence Minister A.K. Antony and senior Navy officials on Thursday.

At present INS Tabar relies on the Sallalah port in Oman and is examining half a dozen locations. The issue of utilising the strategically located Djibouti is scheduled to come up at the defence dialogue between Defence Secretary Vijay Singh with his French counterpart.

The complication facing the anti-piracy crusade in the region is the different force structures among which coordination and communication is at a premium.

Moreover, all these force structures are virtually common, thus providing a narrow base of countries. The Combined Task Force 150 comprises seven nations which have been operating in the Persian Gulf under a different mandate but have now shifted to the piracy-prone areas. Then there is the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), in which apart from two countries, the rest are the same as CTF 150. From November-end, a third group will arrive from the European Union. Then there are the Russian and Indian Navies operating independently. The Arab countries are also discussing the possibility of sending their ships. “There are a fair number of assets but the task of coordination is not clear,” commented a senior security official.

While in the Straits of Malacca, piracy is of the traditional kind, the Arabian Sea variant is of a different dimension requiring tremendous surveillance. Pirates of the classical hue usually rob the personal belongings of crew members and the cargo if it is accessible. But off the coast of Somalia, the cargo is irrelevant except in a few cases like that of Fiona which had tanks or the Saudi vessel with hundreds of million dollars worth of oil. But in all these cases the target is ransom.

The pirates operate out of mother ships that are essentially 200-300 tonne mechanised crafts which look like biggish fishing trawlers that can merge with normal fishing activity. But unlike the regular fishing trawlers these mother ships have sophisticated communication devices and radars. As a result, they are able to monitor shipping traffic up to a vicinity of 50 to 60 km. With high speed boats trailing the mother ships, the highly skilled pirates coerce merchant vessels into slowing down and have the ability to board high speed vessels when they do not stop.

“Having been drawn from land-based militias that have been active in Somalia for nearly two decades, the pirates are formidable foes for merchant vessels,” said the official. Then there are linkages on the shore which throws up several complications for the international community.

“We would now have to keep an eye on the entire Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman where the surveillance effort would be phenomenal. No nation or Navy can do that,” he said.

[joshvajohn]

Bush should get the deal signed before he leaves the office - comment

Lame-duck US, Israeli leaders to meet a final time

By ARON HELLER – 1 hour ago

WASHINGTON (AP) — President George W. Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, two lame-duck leaders, look to their final meeting to leave a blueprint for fulfilling their ambitious but unrealized Mideast agendas.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/art ... wD94KRSA80

[shyamd]

Dying Saudi Crown Prince sparks royal succession battle

Only rarely does the Saudi royal house issue medical bulletins on its rulers. DEBKAfile’s Saudi experts say that the bare announcement Monday, Nov. 23, that Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz, 83 or 85, had left for the United Sates Sunday for “medical checkups” and treatment for cancer indicates that his condition is seen as terminal.

The race for the first-in-line-to-the throne position went into top gear last month. DEBKA-Net-Weekly 370 revealed on Oct. 31 that the crown prince had cut short his stay in Geneva after his Swiss and French doctors found they were unable to keep his intestinal cancer condition at bay. Yet Sultan said he would not quit as long as he was alive.

By disclosing his trip to the US, the royal house hopes to force him to step down and make way for a younger crown prince. Sultan has been holding grimly onto the No. 2 post to prevent his half-brother, King Abdullah, 85, from selecting foreign minister Saud a Faisal as his successor - so cutting the Sudairi challenger interior minister Prince Nayef and their clan out of the running. The Sudairis fear the Faisals would strip them not only of their claim to the throne but also of their traditional power bases, which include defense, the armed forces and the governate of Mecca.

To bring order to the haphazard royal succession system in the world’s largest oil exporter, King Abdullah recently set up an “allegiance council” to moderate the rivalries among the founding father’s tens of thousands of sons and grandsons and regulate the choice of crown prince and ruler.

On Oct. 31, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reported: While Sultan was in Geneva last month with a relapse, King Abdullah sent his own half-brother Prince Mu’tib over with a proposition: If Sultan agreed to step aside, his son Prince Khaled bin Sultan would be appointed to defense in place of his father. The king pledged that none of Sultan’s sons would lose out on the deal and would in fact be promoted in the royal hierarchy. This promise would also apply to Prince Bandar bin Sultan, who is not considered a full-blooded Sudairi scion but was gifted enough to serve for more than two decades as Saudi ambassador to Washington. He officiates at present as national security adviser. Sultan refused.

Because of his age, Abdullah feels he has no time to lose for naming his successor as ruler. He wants the crown prince’s slot vacated while he is in full command of his faculties and fit enough to force his choice of successor through the Allegiance Council. Above all, he wants to keep Prince Nayef away from the throne.

[ramana]

Looks like they are ready for Nepal palace revolt.

[shyamd]

Bush warns Israel off attacks on Iran, Hamas, Hizballah - report

This is reported by TIME magazine.

DEBKAfile’s Washington sources add that prime minister Ehud Olmert accused the Bush administration of establishing relations with the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas when he met US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice of in Washington Monday, Nov. 23.

Over this issue, Olmert’s meeting with president George W. Bush at the White House, intended to be a farewell between friends, turned into a stormy encounter.

The president again warned the prime minister against resorting to any Israeli military action in the Middle East in the period between the two US presidencies. Olmert for his part accused the administration of using the Jordanian king Abdullah and the Gaza missile crisis to open the door for an approach to the Palestinian Hamas, which Washington lists as a terrorist organization.

The king was asked to relay the Bush administration’s request to Syria and the Damascus-based Hamas leader Khalad Meshaal to make Hamas-Gaza stop firing the scores of missiles then flying over southwestern Israel.

The king complied by sending two high-ranking emissaries to Damascus with the US request.

They returned with Meshaal’s affirmative response. Washington’s next step for averting an Israeli counter-assault in Gaza was to have the king to invite Olmert and defense minister Ehud Barak to Amman. They were astonished to be presented with an accomplished fact: The US, Syria and Jordan had cooked up between them a new “Gaza ceasefire”.

According to our sources, Olmert told Bush that the American initiative had placed his government in an untenable position. It was seen to be failing to fight Hamas’ missile offensive while on the quiet, Washington was using Israeli quiescence to lay the foundations of a negotiating track with Palestinian extremists in Damascus and Gaza.

All the opinion polls agree that Olmert’s Kadima party and its coalition partner, Barak’s Labor, are fighting for their lives in the run-up to Israel’s Feb. 10, 2009 general election, while the right-of-center opposition bloc led by Likud is rising fast, making hay from the government’s weak-kneed military posture in obedience to US pressure.

DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources add that without being explicit, the US request intimated to Hamas leaders that by playing ball they would enhance the prospect of future contacts with Washington – whether with the Bush or Obama administrations was not spelled out. Meshaal took the hint.

[shyamd]

Last weeks IOL issue.

Mentor Crushes Fatah Al Islam - Beirut

Created by Syria, the Jihadist group defied its mentor and participated in an attack in Damascus on Sept. 27. Syria hit back instantly.

The saga of the small extremist Sunni group Fatah al Islam is a story of rank manipulation. Formed initially by Saudi intelligence to give Lebanon’s Sunni community an armed movement, Fatah al Islam was subsequently taken in hand by Syria, which turned the group against the Lebanese army. Abandoned by Damascus in the Nahr al Bared camp, the movement’s fighters turned against their former mentors and triggered the explosion of a car bomb in the Syrian capital on Sept. 27.

Several leaders of the movement were arrested on the spot, among them Wafaa Absi, daughter of the former Fatah al Islam chief, Chaker Absi, who is currently in prison in Damascus. Wafaa lived in the Al Arq mosque in the city of Saida. She appeared on Syrian state television on Nov. 6 to confess her involvement in the Sept. 27 attack.

Syrian intelligence also dispatched information on Fatah al Islam to Lebanon’s Military Intelligence Agency. Headed by Edmond Fadel, the Lebanese agency learned that Absi managed to flee the Nahr al Bared camp in September, 2007 with the help of the League of Palestinian Ulemas, which hid him in the Beddaoui camp and specifically in the basement of sheik Hamze Kassam’s Al Qods mosque.

Operating out of the Beddaoui camp, Absi worked to reorganize his movement that had been all but decimated by the Lebanese army. He named Abdul Ghini Jawhar as head of its operational cell. Two bomb attacks that killed 14 young Lebanese army conscripts at Tripoli last month were probably the work of the cell.

With information from Damascus in hand, the Lebanese arrested those who helped Absi to flee, notably Kassem. They are presently being interrogated at the Lebanese defense ministry in the eastern suburbs of Beirut.

The last remnants of Fatal Al Islam’s fighters have gathered around Abdulrahman Mohamed Awad in the Ain el Heloe refugee camp in southern Lebanon. Although the camp is surrounded by the Lebanese army, the Jihadists managed to get into it through tunnels regularly used as secret entrances and exits. The Lebanese general staff is working at present to identify exactly where the die-hard elements of Fatah al Islam are hiding amid the camp’s inhabitants.

Syria’s first ambassador to Baghdad in 30 years, general Nawaf Fares was chosen for the highly sensitive post last month for two reasons: he hails from the border region between Iraq and Syria (he belongs to the al Jbouri tribe, one of the two majority communities in the area) and is a specialist in Kurdish affairs. A career officer, Fares worked for the political security service in Syria’s interior ministry, an intelligence outfit that dealt with both domestic and regional questions. It was in that service that he became a specialist in Kurdish issues, meeting frequently with the leader of the Kurdistan Patriotic Union, Jalal Talabani, when the latter lived in exile in Syria. Talabani is now the Iraqi president. Fares has also been governor of Quneitra province on the Golan Heights bordering on Israel in southern Syria. In his various functions he became very close to late Syrian president Hafez al Assad and now to his son and successor, Bachar al Assad.

Fares is going to Baghdad with a mandate to limit the influence of Saudi Arabia on Sunni tribes in Iraq.

World-Wide Hunt for Six Iranian Planes - Washington

The aviation industry is in the process of becoming a global battlefield between Iran and the United States. After trying to isolate Iranian banks from world capital markets, Washington is now working to prevent Iran from operating American-made passenger aircraft. Any company that tries to provide Iranian airlines with U.S. equipment, whether complete aircraft or mere components, is systematically hounded by the Commerce Department. The latest episode in the shadowy conflict involves six Boeing aircraft belonging to the British steel trading giant Balli, owned by the Alaghband family of Iranian origin, which tried to lease aircraft to two leading Iranian companies, Iran Air and Mahan Air.

Six Aircraft Grounded.Intelligence Online understands that three Boeing 747 airliners that Mahan Air had leased for several years from Blue Sky Airways, an affiliate of the Balli Group based at Yerevan in Armenia, have been immobilized on the runway of the Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran in recent weeks. Under pressure from the Commerce Department, which slapped trade sanctions on the Balli Group on March 17 (see our report, IOL 570), the British conglomerate deprived its affiliate Blue Sky of ownership of the three aircraft operated by Mahan.The three 747s are still the property of the Balli Group but lack pilots and flight attendants and remain blocked in Tehran. That has reduced Mahan Air’s fleet by nearly a third and the company is understandably angry about it. Iran Air, which periodically sub-leased aircraft from Mahan Air, has also been hit by Balli’s decision to break off its contract with Blue Sky. The operation amounts to the second success notched up against Iran by the Office of Export Enforcement in the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security. Six months ago, American investigators managed to immobilize three other Boeing 747s owned by the Balli Group. The aircraft were undergoing maintenance in Singapore and Busan, in South Korea, but were stopped from being returned to their owners because the Commerce Department feared Balli would sell them to Iran Air.

Even though its six aircraft are now effectively grounded, the Commerce Department extended the trade sanctions against Balli Group for a further six months on Sept. 22. The measure prevents the group from selling any American goods subject to export controls, and that clearly hobbles Balli’s operations. The group sells non-ferrous metals, chemical components and agricultural products across the world. One of its leading trading centers is located in Houston. Balli has always denied deliberately seeking to get around embargoes on the export of American aviation equipment and claims to be a victim of a campaign orchestrated by the People’s Mujahedeen (Mujahedeen-e Khalq or MEK)

The Ban’s Collateral Damage. The grounding of Balli's three Boeing 747s in Asia has had unexpected consequences. While one of the three aircraft indeed interests Iran Air, two others (series numbers: MSN 26474 and MSN 26881) were to have been leased to the small, family-owned French airline Eagle Aviation based at St. Nazaire airport, and in which Balli was due to acquire a 30% stake. Eagle was scheduled to operate Balli’s Boeing 747s on behalf of Saudi Arabian Airlines, with which the French company signed a contract on Oct. 4, 2007. Catherine and Manuel Garbaccio, who run Eagle, were based for years in Saudi Arabia and have long-standing ties with Saudi Arabian Airlines. Their carrier has been flying pilgrims between Europe and Medina for years on behalf of the Saudi airline. As Balli’s aircraft are now immobilized in Asia, Eagle Aviation can’t use them to work for Saudi Arabian Airlines. Still, the latter hasn’t broken off its contract with the French firm, which remains valid. In February Balli decided against buying a holding in Eagle Aviation. The lost income from the grounding of its aircraft has driven a hole in Eagle’s finances. France’s Direction Generale de l’Aviation Civile (DGAC) suspended its operating certificate on Oct. 22 because of a lack of financial guarantees. The license was restored the following day - but only for three months, until next Jan. 15.

Faction Fighting in Hezbollah - Beirut

Under the attentive eye of Iranian officials, Hezbollah made every effort to appear united during its 8th Congress which wound up on Nov. 3. (Page 3). But behind the smiles, rivalry between clans is just as rife as ever. Three clans are fighting it out: the security-minded men headed by Wafic Safa and Hajj Hassan Khalil, who are somewhat close to Syria; the supporters of secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah, who include Hashim Safieddine and Nabil Kaouk and are fervently loyal to Iran; and the faction of sheikh Naim Kassem, number two man in the moment who has been denouncing Nasrallah’s cult of personality for years. The latter was re-elected for a fifth term in office at the Congress even though the bylaws of the Shi’ite organization only allow for two mandates.

Hezbollah’s New Foreign Military Boss - Beirut

20 November 2008

Hezbollah’s 8th Congress has shaken up the military leadership that conducts the movement’s operations outside of Lebanon.

Since the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus on Feb. 12, Hezbollah had lacked a figure to see to its external security. The movement’s 8th Congress that wound up on Nov. 3 picked Mustapha Shehade to take over from Mughniyeh. The two men worked together for long years. But before his appointment was confirmed, Shehade had to spend six months taking leadership courses at the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdarans) instruction center north of Tehran.

One of his first duties will be to revamp Hezbollah’s military branch, a task that Mughniyeh had undertaken before his death. But the high command that will supervise Hezbollah’s external operations is due to work hand in hand with Iranian commanders, to ensure that Hezbollah’s operations in Iraq and the Gulf complement those of the Revolutionary Guard’s Al Qods force.

During Mughniyeh’s reign, Hezbollah largely expanded its foreign operations by setting up sleeper cells in several Gulf countries and sending senior operatives to Iraq to train units of activists from the Mahdi Army of Iraqi Shi’ite leader Moqtada al Sadr.

Conversely, officials from the al Qods force took part in planning Hezbollah’s operations against Sunni neighborhoods in Beirut in May, 2008 (IOL 573/574).

A delegation from the Al Qods force took part in deliberations at Hezbollah’s 8th Congress, as did representatives of the Iranian Al Shahid for Martyrs foundation. Hezbollah’s good relations with Iran contrast with the gradual deterioration of the movement’s ties with Damascus. Indeed, the question of relations with Damascus came up for discussion during a closed-door session of the Shura al Qarar, the movement’s decision-making panel.

[shyamd]

Covert marine operation uncovers Syria's return to plutonium production

In the face of Damascus' refusal to allow UN inspectors access to three suspect "research laboratories, Western agents recently carried out a daring covert operation to collect water samples from the Orontes river in Syria where it drains into the Mediterranean, DEBKAfile's intelligence sources reveal. Their discoveries were presented to a closed session of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency's board on Nov. 27-28.

Situated on the river bank near Homs is one of the three research institutes where Syrian, Iranian and North Korean technicians and scientists are suspected of reprocessing plutonium for Syria's clandestine military nuclear program. The Orentes samples confirmed the suspicion that Syria has gone back to the plutonium project which was cut short when Israeli destroyed its reactor at Al Kibar in September 2007.

The Orontes rises at Tal al Musa north of Damascus and south of Homs. It flows into the sea near Antakya, which is north of Latakiya and west of Aleppo, not far from the Turkish border.

The IAEA board meeting was told in general teams how the tainted river samples were obtained. DEBKAfile's military sources add that western nuclear technicians collected them from a boat which sailed surreptitiously up to the river mouth in Syria. To make sure of their finding, they collected river water on three different dates in the last two months.

Their discovery tied in with a separate report reaching the nuclear watchdog board that Iran and North Korea were frantically drafting in nuclear specialists to help Syria revive its plutonium reprocessing project. The product is to be stored in protected hideouts.

It was the view of some board members that Tehran and Pyongyang had determined to prove that the Israeli attack had not put Syria off its nuclear program. Both were even more insistent on showing the world that the Iranian nuclear program of which the Syrian project was a part was unstoppable.

Syria and North Korea accordingly renewed their clandestine nuclear cooperation accord on Oct. 22, so making sure of an uninterrupted flow from Pyongyang of nuclear materials, technology and experts for Syria's covert nuclear facilities.