Indian Response to Terrorism

vsudhir · Post by **vsudhir** » 02 Dec 2008 19:36

Can't help but wonder how much space has been devoted to NSG this year at BRF. First iot was the N suppliers group and now its the national security guard.... Anyone knows if NSG is also an acronym for anything else? Just curious onlee...

sum · Post by **sum** » 02 Dec 2008 19:42

Since this is the response thread, posting a comment from rediff about what our response will be:

once a man was Slapped By a GOONDA in the Market.
He was very Embarrased as his wife and Children were also there.
He shouted TRY this time(Ibb Ke MAAR) and You will Pay the Price!!
He got a HARDER SLAP
He again shouted TRY this time(Ibb Ke MAAR) and You will Pay the Price!!
and the STORY CONTINUES------
WHAT PRICE!! what a JOKE!!!
1993 onwards COUNT YERAS---Dawood is in KARACHI living LIFE OF KINGS.
Maulana AZHAR MASOOD ----Indian Foreign Minister went to see him OFF.
HA HA HA HA HA
Its time FOR YOUTH TO BECOME BHAGAT SINGH
FIRST WIPE THE GADDARS(80% politicians are on the PAY Rolls of DAWOOD, 70% IAS get salary from other side also,50% IPS receive monthly pay cheques)
KYA DEKH LOGE PAKISTAN KO!!! WHAT PRICE THEY WILL PAY??
JOKES!!!

Sorry,couldnt resist a smiley for the funny yet ironically true comment of a man being repeatedly slapped by a local goonda.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 02 Dec 2008 19:48

Rajeshji, i understand you want to deal with the power broker. But then thats also not necessarily the PA chief. The dirty tricks dept is pretty anonymous under the 'plausibility deniability' regime because the institutions are preserved that way. Thus even if you have a PA Chief in power or a Civilian Govt, there is not much difference on the ground, unless you reduce the power and give accountability to people who manage those institutions that hide behind this 'plausibility deniability' regime.

This is achieved ONLY by giving doable goals. By giving Z something he cannot do, you keep these institutions power structures intact. The only way to weaken is get D or LeT boss, just one or two people. The ISI and PA Chief will find it very tough to refuse something so doable under these circumstances. If they don't, US can get them removed. These things can happen now. The next Chiefs will understand that their insidous game infrastructure is breaking away.

By dealing with a dictator you achieve nothing . He smiles as sweetly as Zia doing Cricket diplomacy, or speaks with conviction like Musharaff while running with the hounds. India cannot deal with them. They will impress the WKKs, leftists and Page 3 crowd with Burkha and stuff. You and me will ramble and rant on BRF. Zilch will be achieved. Till the next terror incident, when we'll also dole out something undoable or rant for war without any aim.

You're one of the clear headed persons here, i expect to understand that we need to have some positive achievement. We need Dawood and LeT chief on an urgent basis. Not 20 odd people! We are trapping ourselves badly.

kmc_chacko · Post by **kmc_chacko** » 02 Dec 2008 19:50

In case of War between Us & neighbour what will be the most useful thing we can do for owr warriors who are fighting at the frontline without fear on their life.

As each and every Indian cannot take up guns and get into the battle ground. As there will be many other requirements like medicine, infrastructre, economy, Production, Food & fodder & R&D works in order to continue/for the survival in the war to defeat the enemy.

But i hope there will be no war.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 Dec 2008 19:56

Folks, the madrassa logic and counter madrassa logic is needed. The thappad joke in market place is not a joke at all. We need counter-madrassa orgs that's only business is to seek and destroy.. they don't understand anything else. < /.>

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 20:10

There can be no "war". India will waste resources by sending any troops to the border.

The disconnect between GoI and GoP is very simple - GoI needs to provide "proof" of who was involved. And, GoI cannot - simply because GoI will reveal its source and GoP + PA + ISI will shut that source down and hit again.

I am confident that the US is aware of the "source" and thus the stand taken by both Rice and Obama.

This is going to take a few more days and the end game is near.

Pakis have agreed that these guys could have come from Pakistan and been trained and directed by a group within Pakistan. Although it is not enough to agree, taking the next step - action on these groups - will take more pressure from all parties. Which means TRYING to find someone with PA/ISI that the outside world can rely on. A near impossible task.

But, one thing for sure, no overt GoI reaction is possible. In fact it could be counter productive.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Dec 2008 20:18

harbansji,

I believe our difference of opinion here may be because of a difference in confidence in Zardari.

My contention is that Zardari has no locus standi in the following fields.

1. Nurturing and use of terrorist infrastructure
2. Control over Nuclear Weapons
3. Foreign Policy (limited)
4. Militarization targeted at India
5. Defense Budget
6. Situation on the international border and LoC.

and as such Zardari cannot deliver anything, whether it is 20 names or it is 3 or 4 LeT, Dawood or anybody else who belongs to ISI's terrorism assets against India. The Pakistani Establishment (much of it anonymous and underground) decides on such matters. They will not agree.

Question is what happens, if USA intercedes and asks Pakistan to hand over these people? My guess is they still wouldn't because the agreement is on delivering non-India-specific assets and non-assets.

Just because India has given Zardari a list of 19 names, it does not mean, India wouldn't accept a subset of them.

So the question remains, whether it is doable for Zardari to deliver anybody at all from this list, especially those who are high-value terrorists, like Saeed and Dawood, and would make New Delhi happy. This we will see, in the coming days.

My guess is, Zardari would now pledge cooperation, and say he will go after these people, but as the situation cools down a bit, they will start dragging their feet, and at some point in time, say they haven't found anybody and case is closed.

One must keep in mind, that just as soon as their chief is deported to India, these organizations can nominate a new chief and the game continues.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 20:18

Just BTW, the Taliban has proposed a cease fire so that the PA can transfer 100K troops to Indian border.

trivedi · Post by **trivedi** » 02 Dec 2008 20:19

harbans wrote:Rajeshji, i understand you want to deal with the power broker. But then thats also not necessarily the PA chief. The dirty tricks dept is pretty anonymous under the 'plausibility deniability' regime because the institutions are preserved that way. Thus even if you have a PA Chief in power or a Civilian Govt, there is not much difference on the ground, unless you reduce the power and give accountability to people who manage those institutions that hide behind this 'plausibility deniability' regime.

This is achieved ONLY by giving doable goals. By giving Z something he cannot do, you keep these institutions power structures intact. The only way to weaken is get D or LeT boss, just one or two people. The ISI and PA Chief will find it very tough to refuse something so doable under these circumstances. If they don't, US can get them removed. These things can happen now. The next Chiefs will understand that their insidous game infrastructure is breaking away.

By dealing with a dictator you achieve nothing . He smiles as sweetly as Zia doing Cricket diplomacy, or speaks with conviction like Musharaff while running with the hounds. India cannot deal with them. They will impress the WKKs, leftists and Page 3 crowd with Burkha and stuff. You and me will ramble and rant on BRF. Zilch will be achieved. Till the next terror incident, when we'll also dole out something undoable or rant for war without any aim.

You're one of the clear headed persons here, i expect to understand that we need to have some positive achievement. We need Dawood and LeT chief on an urgent basis. Not 20 odd people! We are trapping ourselves badly.

I respect your opinion and everything you say is logical. But the LeT chief and to a lesser extent D are both replaceable. One would also assume that in the case of either's handover any information they might hold will be made useless before the handover. So what did we achieve?

trivedi · Post by **trivedi** » 02 Dec 2008 20:20

NRao wrote:Just BTW, the Taliban has proposed a cease fire so that the PA can transfer 100K troops to Indian border.

Source?

Unkil won't fall for this, and if he does he'll learn soon what the word ceasefire means to these people.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 02 Dec 2008 20:23

PS:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsN ... 8620081202

Not that it will make any difference in India. Term limits might make a tiny bit. Why doesn't India have term limits?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 20:26

RA,

I have not followed the discussion, so pardon me if I am out of step.

and as such Zardari cannot deliver anything, whether it is 20 names or it is 3 or 4 LeT, Dawood or anybody else who belongs to ISI's terrorism assets against India. The Pakistani Establishment (much of it anonymous and underground) decides no such matters. They will not agree.

Which is why I feel that a covert op is THE only way out.

However, this will drag in other Islamic entities - that perhaps are not in the game today.

One observation - India has always had a chance to act, and, for political reasons has not risked to act. However, down the road these inactions have always hurt India. Not that I am saying India must act now, but, that down the road ....................

Question is what happens, if USA intercedes and asks Pakistan to hand over these people? My guess is they still wouldn't because the agreement is on delivering non-India-specific assets and non-assets.

The US seems to be backing out at times - the reason given is that they do not want to reenforce the Paki thought of being encircled.

My guess is, Zardari would now pledge cooperation, and say he will go after these people, but as the situation cools down a bit, they will start dragging their feet, and at some point in time, say they haven't found anybody and case is closed.

One must keep in mind, that just as soon as their chief is deported to India, these organizations can nominate a new chief and the game continues

Which is why the map needs to be redrawn - to save the Muslims of that area.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 20:27

trivedi wrote:
NRao wrote:Just BTW, the Taliban has proposed a cease fire so that the PA can transfer 100K troops to Indian border.
Source?

Unkil won't fall for this, and if he does he'll learn soon what the word ceasefire means to these people.

Mr. Ahmed Rashid, HIMSELF, live on NPR this morning. An hour ago.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 02 Dec 2008 20:35

NSG ke liya Lipton Laooji chai Hazir with Iyengar biscoots to go

May your marathon session lead to more Biscoot sessions

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 20:38

I just hope India is prepared for eventualities that will result from any handing over of militants to India.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Dec 2008 20:46

NRao,

I think USA also needs to do a rethink on what are its core interests in Afghanistan and how USA can ensure them in the long run.

The Mumbai Attacks must have told them, that their arrangement is very precarious and their assumptions can jump in the Indian Ocean as soon as terrorists start shooting in India. Till now the Manmohan Singh Govt. has succumbed to US diktat of restraint, even under severe pressures to do something more aggressive. But that assumption cannot survive many more such attacks, especially under a somewhat more nationalistic government.

How long are they supposed to keep this arrangement then? Till Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri have been caged or killed. That may or may never happen. Why would Pakistanis let their lactating cow leave Afghanistan? If US leaves Afghanistan, nobody in the world would be giving the Pakis any money at all.

Why is Obama so sure, that he can hunt down Osama if Bush couldn't?! Does USA have other Great Game interests in staying in Afghanistan? If they do have them or have doubts that they can finist Al Qaida just yet, they need a much more stable arrangement than now for the long-term.

That is where India and USA need to put their heads together and find out a durable solution for the area. May be with Hillary Clinton and Obama, Indians would have better luck. For that though, Obama would have to leave Kashmir outside the door.

vsudhir · Post by **vsudhir** » 02 Dec 2008 20:47

India Today article critical of GoI response so far.

India’s feeble response to Pak terror

From the same article, FWIW, bhishma pitamah KS uvacha:

Strategic affairs expert K.Subrahmanyam felt that Pakistan was unlikely to hand over Dawood Ibrahim and Maulana Masood Azhar. He said the Pakistan Army “engineered this terror attack to create an opportunity to move their troops from the western border to the eastern border. The Pakistan Army will try to convince the Americans on this issue. We should not fall into the trap and instead ask Washington to pressure Islamabad.” In his view it was important for India to take the international community along.

Meanwhile, yashwant sinha comes out and proves that the principal opposition too is out of ideas.

The opposition, too, is sceptical about the government’s action. “To what purpose is this demarche being issued?” asked BJP leader Yashwant Sinha. “From the response of their foreign minister, it is clear that they are in a denial mode. We will repeat our demand for Dawood Ibrahim and they will repeat that he is not in Pakistan. What good is that going to achieve?” he asked. He said if he were the foreign minister, he would share the evidence of Pakistan’s involvement to build world opinion. “I cannot say what the government should do. But we would have been stronger,” Sinha said.

If TSP doesn't pay a price for this action (and before that for the kabul embassy blast) what incentive does TSPA have for not doing evermore mayhem? Does the TSPA care if UPA sarkar lives or dies?

trivedi · Post by **trivedi** » 02 Dec 2008 20:54

RajeshA wrote:Does USA have other Great Game interests in staying in Afghanistan? If they do have them or have doubts that they can finist Al Qaida just yet, they need a much more stable arrangement than now for the long-term.

That is where India and USA need to put their heads together and find out a durable solution for the area. May be with Hillary Clinton and Obama, Indians would have better luck. For that though, Obama would have to leave Kashmir outside the door.

I am sure Afghanistan's border with Iran and proximity to Russia both factor into the US's long term interests there. Further, by all accounts the Afghan government's control does not extend too far from Kabul. The US is there to stay a while.

I hope Obama leaves Kashmir at the door but with Clinton as Sec. of State, I am not so optimistic any more. Who knows, the wife might turn out to be the opposite of the husband.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 21:13

Plenty of topics, will try and deal as best as I can

RajeshA wrote: I think USA also needs to do a rethink on what are its core interests in Afghanistan and how USA can ensure them in the long run.

I FEEL that Obama has a got a very good read on the situation (note: Obama has been to a LOT more living rooms that just of Mr. Ayers. A lot.).

The Mumbai Attacks must have told them, that their arrangement is very precarious and their assumptions can jump in the Indian Ocean as soon as terrorists start shooting in India. Till now the Manmohan Singh Govt. has succumbed to US diktat of restraint, even under severe pressures to do something more aggressive. But that assumption cannot survive many more such attacks, especially under a somewhat more nationalistic government.

You are absolutely right - BUT the ground realities have made the CURRENT set of strategists veer way away from old ways of thinking. Note that a LOT of them are ALREADY stating that a "surge" in A'stan may/will not work. More l8r if need be.

On MMS, he cannot go to "war". It will not get rid of such terrorist acts. I would suggest a "war" for nothing less than at the very least getting back PoK. Nothing less. Other wise, it could be very counter productive. (BTW, as an aside: for a "war" India I think needs about 10 weeks or so - which means after snow melts in April/May?)

MMS has to take a different route - AND produce results.

On "many more such attacks". India NEEDS a covert op within TSP ASAP. A very clean one. IMHO.

How long are they supposed to keep this arrangement then? Till Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri have been caged or killed. That may or may never happen. Why would Pakistanis let their lactating cow leave Afghanistan? If US leaves Afghanistan, nobody in the world would be giving the Pakis any money at all.

Why is Obama so sure, that he can hunt down Osama if Bush couldn't?! Does USA have other Great Game interests in staying in Afghanistan? If they do have them or have doubts that they can finist Al Qaida just yet, they need a much more stable arrangement than now for the long-term.

I have a lurking suspicion that everyone is very slowly waking up to the fact that there are no moderate Muslims and that there just cannot be such a category for the rest of us to deal with. As was seen with the topic of buring these terrorists IMs were willing to "take to the streets" if the GoI forced the issue. In short, for better or for worse, and just as an observation, Muslims are ultimately dictated by one and only one source - even a "moderate" Muslim is (I am not saying it is a -ve (or a +ve)) - just a frank observation.

The US and the West will have to treat them as such - that you are different and that you have your area and do not cross over. (Note: u r in Germany? German commerce something JUST held a huge meeting to promote Iran - because they are good business partners. Reported in WSJ just a day or two ago. Germans are PROMOTING Iran, they had the head of the Iran bank, as chief guest/speaker, that has been prohibited from doing business in the West!!!!!!)

This is a topic by itself - so I shall stop here.

That is where India and USA need to put their heads together and find out a durable solution for the area. May be with Hillary Clinton and Obama, Indians would have better luck. For that though, Obama would have to leave Kashmir outside the door.

I think Rice is in India JUST for that reason.

Obama: He will never tilt this way or that. He will be a US-first president that would be as careful as possible NOT to step on any body's foot. But, he will not tilt towards India nor Pakistan. Again a topic by itself.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 02 Dec 2008 21:15

It gives me creeps to see experts like KSA, B Raman, give expert comentary ie bala ball description with out telling us what option s we have and how soon it should be excercised. These fit for nothing guys make money writing open ed and posing as experts on TV. Just sick of it.

Dont tell me what was achieved by the enemy, what his intention was, what he gained, tell me what we need to do and use your damn influence if you have any to make it happen.

Frankly the more I see India inaction the less confidence I have in getting things right. We will limp along like a langada take abuse from Bdesh to timbuktoo....

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 21:18

JS,

What do you expect from a COUNTRY that has no strategic group or policies? And, not to talk of umpteen political parties, each with its own views.

IF they give their views they are bound to hurt someone (perhaps the CM of Kerala) and not have a standing anywhere.

At the very top India is very dysfunctional - was noted more than 10 years ago on BR.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 02 Dec 2008 21:19

We know that the US is committed to prop Pakistan, which is a means for it to manage
Afghanistan. The US is committed to a relationship with India, as a means to contain
China. China is committed to prop Pakistan as a means to contain India. In the past,
the US went along with support for Pakistan as long as it benefited US goals against
Russia or helped relations with China. It may still be doing that, but less likely. More
recently, its support for Pak may be holding largely because of the ballast it provides
to EJs in India.

I think most of us realize these dynamics at play.

Although it is complex, the reason it has become complicated is because Indian polity
has been "softened" to the degree where a) it has no response to such terrorist acts,
and b) acceptance of American influence in managing our destiny appears more normal.
Whether or not softening is a cause or effect, it is correlated to the lack of clear objectives
or "end result" with respect to security of the nation, sovereignty of our lands, and Pakistan.

It is complicated by governance and an elite that is still enslaved to western ideals, and acts contrary
to the aspirations of the common citizens of the country.

That is why there is such silence. They
are stuck. Don't know what to do....a What happened moment.

If we start with the obvious: Islamist extremism has taken root in Pakistan, its institutions
are unseparable. The only solution is to eliminate Islamist terror in Pakistan.

Whether or not Pakistan survives as a result should not be our concern. It is also easy to see that if
Islamist terror vanishes in Pakistan, its basis for existence in India will be eliminated.

We must first arrive in a space where it is feasible for us to eliminate terror emanating out of Pakistan, fully
cognizant of the fact that it may put us in direct conflict with the nation state. Once we demonstrate this
commitment, like our nuclear tests, America will work with the constraints of reality.

But there is, in the here and now, some distance for us to travel on our own.

As a first step to eliminating islamist terror from the subcontinent, targeting all those on our list (where is
that list) is appropriate. Asking or entering into a game of sharing is not useful, creating an agency that
undertakes covert action anywhere and one that can sustain an intelligence network is. Targeted action
in other nations shall become an instrument of Indian defense. There is no shame in that, especially when
we are subject to it.

Opening up Kashmir to the citizens of India and creating the public opinion for return of PoK is next. This is
not going to be easy, but must be done, even if by restoring the historical population balance.

Backing out of Tibet is China must be considered as an option viz. China.
Giving support to the Israelis to eliminate Pakistani nukes is another.
Indus is yet another.

Of course, we should allow trade in mangoes and have a market for our goods in Pakistan.

But if there is one thing we can do now, it is to identify where terror leadership is and eliminate them.
While the right half does that, the left-half can keep up with the demand for getting back the 20.

Where is the institutional core that is ensuring India's eminence in the continent?

sorry--two edits.

JMT
S

Neilz · Post by **Neilz** » 02 Dec 2008 21:22

When we all are talking about tough action and tit-for-tat...... this what we got. As fast as possible we must get rid of these types traitors.

http://www.rediff.com/news/2008/dec/02m ... -india.htm

"Kashmiri political parties called for restraint after the Mumbai terror attacks, so as not to derail the relationship with Pakistan, as they fear that would impact situation in Jammu and Kashmir [Images].

In separate statements issued in Srinagar [Images], former chief ministers Farooq Abdullah and Mufti Mohammad Sayeed urged the Indian government not to embark on "punitive measures" against Pakistan as it would cast a shadow on Jammu and Kashmir."

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 02 Dec 2008 21:34

1. Nurturing and use of terrorist infrastructure
2. Control over Nuclear Weapons
3. Foreign Policy (limited)
4. Militarization targeted at India
5. Defense Budget
6. Situation on the international border and LoC.

Rajeshji, indeed there are many things Z will not be able to control. Yet there are many areas where in time pushed by US and India he can initiate cutting the gordian knot of ISI/ PA control over the Defense budget, FP, Terror Infrastructure etc. What i see Indian politicians and leaders have always had a desire to do something grandiose and flamboyent in one go. Nothing BIG happens at a go. It takes years of hammering and chipping away to take shape.

Same with policy initiatives. We've failed miserably wrt Pakistan. Our WKKs, Page 3, BCCI, Film crowd and FHL media hae been unable to look beyond a charming Paki smile and have imagined things will automatically fall in place with some RAPE visits here and there. I have never believed in that ever as i have always understood the deep rooted penchant in Paki psyche on Ghazwa e Hind. This is what their Institutions are built on and how the entire focus of PA/ ISI revolves under.

Keeping that in mind i have seen inevitable failures in policy all these years including the self defeating standoff in 2002 However with Z there is a difference. There is already tremendous pressure on the Paki establishment including the Army and ISI. Z made 2 bold moves in the past to be cut down wrt the ISI. Thats a start.

If i take your stance and logic then i should be saying that it's better to deal with the Taliban and AQ in Islamabad than the PA because that is what PA ultimately will and wants to look like deep inside. And frankly i think that Pakistans logical culmination will be Talibanization, Afghan style. Imminent Talibanization of Pakistan will require immediate and total bombing campaigns sustained for long periods to remove all traces of nuke facilities, launchers, nuclear plants, runways, storage silos, continuosly round the clock 24x7, months on end.

That sort of operation should not be carried out as yet. Hassle is many who are wanting bombing runs for absolutely unachievable aims now, will keep deadly silent and be out of clue when Taliban really does take power in Islamabad. Militarization of any type now will get the PA this side, and result in rapid Talibanization of Pakistan. Then forget it, we will not have the resources to do a sustained denuking campaign. Will have exhausted good will amongst nations by acting imprudently. And in the process have pretty good chances of facing a nuclear holocaust in one of our cities or more. Even without it, our economic growth and development will come to freeze for years, increasing the gap between us and China.

No we have to go step by step this time. The time for explanations you have given belong to the past. We've achieved zilch interacting with sauve dictators, and we've achieved zilch dealing with civilian PMs. Yet now there is a wind of change if we can smell it.

This is the time to ask Pakistani Govt to take small steps. Get D and LeT head. Yes they may try and replace them. We'll know. Put pressure in Pakistan to get PA Chief and ISI Chief as appointees of the Civil Govt. Put pressure to effect constitutional changes to that effect. All these are small steps and will or should be done quite out of public glare along with the US. These take time and are not grandiose or flamboyent as our leaders want things done, but these are the steps that will work if sustained pressure is maintained.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 02 Dec 2008 21:43

harban ji,

very good post. Will try to go through it little by little.

Just one point here.

My focus is not to deal with a Pakistani dictator as such, but to take away the bullet-proof vest that the background dictators now wear, the civilian government. Basically it is supposed to make these dictators more vulnerable. My point is not that we should do 'chai-biskuit' with them or Al-Qaida or Taliban.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 21:44

Paki Prez on Larry King Live tonight at 9 PM Eastern.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 02 Dec 2008 21:44

But the LeT chief and to a lesser extent D are both replaceable. One would also assume that in the case of either's handover any information they might hold will be made useless before the handover. So what did we achieve?

Trivedi ji, indeed they are replaceable to an extent. This is not just something Pakistan can do. To get this done India has to do a lot. That includes some degree of overriding the authority of the PA/ ISI by the Civilian Govt in Pakistan. Thats why i was consistently saying we should ask them to deliver us one or two key people. If we don't build up that chasm and bring it out in the open (between the Civilian and PA/ISI) we will achieve nothing. If that chasm is out in the open and the Civilian authority does manage to do so it is a MAJOR precedent. If the Army Chief acts funny or the ISI guy does, they will be removed under US/ Indian pressure on the civilian Govt in Pak. The next high level appointee will have to consequently realize he is being appointed only under certain conditions. That he is subservient to the Civil administration that is accountable to civilized nations like the US and India. Let them try and replace Dawood (not easy). LeT boss is easier. But it will be known. Once we have an elbow on the door ajar, we should sustain it there. To get a future say in Pakistans security apparatus is something VERY BIG!

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 02 Dec 2008 21:48

The time has long past for Pakistani govt. to take small steps.

Small steps make sense, pardon my saying so, when they serve the larger purpose of getting to a goal,
not in balancing a deficit that has bled us since 1947.

The time has come to commit to a single purpose and find the most optimal means to achieve it,
in small or large steps, as the optimization procedure might indicate.

The single purpose that India must commit to is to eliminate terror from the subcontinent generally,
and specifically in Pakistan.

To eliminate this terror, we must create an institution that eliminate targets in any nation in the subcontinent
and has an effective intelligence network to draw up accurate and meaningful lists.
This should've been done long time back.

If, in the course of doing that, it is perceived that asking for the 20 (or 10 or 3) is a good way to pick a fight,
I am all for it.

S

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 02 Dec 2008 21:51

As usual all the analysts here are indicating what we can not do and what we should have before we do something.

Excellent disertation materials, luckily for India the officers and Jawans below the rank of col are action oriented but analysis oriented.

the point is ther should be quid pro quid for these attacks and more time we take the less effective it will be and already vultures are hovering all over nai delli advising restraint ( dumbos dont know that Delli is full of bandicoots who want to preserve the gaddi)

surinder · Post by **surinder** » 02 Dec 2008 22:02

Singha wrote:title of this thread could be changed to "gubo - the indian response to paki terrorism"

I support that suggestion too. The title of this thread is about a response. But there is no response to speak of. It is GUBO all the way. Why not call a spade a spade.

People say that this is India's 9/11. No, it is not. For India it is merely equivalent to a mugging in SC LA, or SE DC, or E. Palo Alto. Indian reaction is going to be no more than that.

Indians talk of India the emerging super power. The 2nd largest economy in 30 years. One of the few nations to a million+ army. I don't see a super power in making. No Sir. it aint gonna happen. This is not the way a super power is made. We will surely have an aging Rahul gandhi rule is, that is for sure, but we will not be a super power. Then then last of the Gandhi family will be gone and power will pass on to the muszlims of India becuase they will be more like 40-50% of India. Good Luck.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Dec 2008 22:07

Someone reported about the WB going for a state "NSG" - lost that post -but if true - In WB that could be a good way of providing for Islamic jIhadis and Naxalites undercover, and what about ensuring that only the party cadre get the jobs - there are a lot of experts within the cadre of the party in "black ops" but geared more for elections rigging, bumping off political opponents or organizing rape and abduction/molestation as political intimidation measure - what if through this CPI(M) gets to maintain its own private army at state cost?

milindc · Post by **milindc** » 02 Dec 2008 22:09

whatever happened to that 'cold start' doctrine ? Wasn't it one of the lessons learned from Parliament attack.

Abhi_G · Post by **Abhi_G** » 02 Dec 2008 22:18

Harbansji, I do not know whether the story of two US "officials" occupying a room/rooms at the Taj was a plant. TOIlet showed it for sometime and then removed that part of the text. If Unkil is involved in this game, then no wonder there will be nothing, besides the fact that our political system at present is at its nadir.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 02 Dec 2008 22:18

I think we have already discussed this - "cold start" works only if the engine has all parts ready and functioning, there is sufficient oil in the tank, and the driver really wanted to get out and drive - what if he doesn't even know where he wants tod rive to?

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 22:27

X-posting. The problem is far worse than I thought.

There IS a very huge disconnect between an ex-Adim and a low level foot soldier.

Posted by ASPuar

Mumbai - Where did we go wrong?
By Admiral Arun Prakash

The diabolic, well coordinated and ruthlessly executed multi-pronged terrorist assault on Mumbai has left the nation punch-drunk. And 48 hours later, we still have only a hazy notion of what hit us and how. Since Mumbai is a great port city, many in the media have been looking seawards for clues, and asking the inevitable question: could the Indian Navy (IN) or Coast Guard (CG) have done anything to stop the terror strikes? The dramatic high seas interception of two merchant ships, and their internment in a Gujarat port has added grist to the mill.

I think many of us are missing the wood for the trees. No set of people could have walked off a merchant ship in Sassoon Docks or stepped out of a dinghy at Machhlimar Nagar and launched these attacks. This operation called for reconnaissance, logistics, communications, local support and perhaps even rehearsals; all requiring time. The number of persons involved, directly or indirectly, could easily run into dozens if not a hundred. It speaks of the abysmal depths plumbed by our police and intelligence apparatus that they failed to hear an underworld rumour or a whisper on the airwaves, or obtain any sort of warning at all. But that seems to be now “par for the course” in India.

Soon after the July 2006 serial train blasts in Mumbai, which resulted in over 500 dead and injured, I attended a high level inter-ministry meeting to discuss this issue. After presentations, discussions and brain-storming lasting a couple of hours, a final question was asked by the Cabinet Secretary: what urgent remedial and precautionary measures should we take to prevent recurrence of such incidents?

After a pregnant silence, the sole suggestion that came was voiced by a junior functionary: “We must give the SHOs at the thana level more and better quality walkie-talkie sets.” I was shaken to the core because of the pedestrian and worm’s eye perspective that it demonstrated; not high-technology, not intelligence, not weapons, but walkie-talkies! And this was in 2006, after the nation had been experiencing bomb blasts or terrorist attacks with monotonous regularity in the wake of the horrifying 1993 Mumbai carnage. The score today, of course, stands much higher.

What we have been facing for many years now, and continue to face, is an “asymmetric war”, waged by a ruthless and imaginative intelligence agency. This war has many dimensions; aiding separatism and insurgency, attacking our economy by pumping in fake currency, inciting communal violence, and undermining the morale and cohesion of the armed forces (often through the instrumentality of the Indian media) are some other facets of this multi-pronged assault by the Pak Inter-Services Intelligence agency on the hapless Indian State.

Its most obvious manifestation has been the cold-blooded orchestration of violence amidst our civilian population. This is done through a complex and well-organized network of agents and surrogates, indigenous and foreign, who are trained, equipped and financed to wreak havoc. Mumbai was obviously a soft and undefended target, where they perpetrated mayhem with impunity.

Like ostriches with heads buried deep in sand, we have refused to acknowledge this asymmetric war. And full responsibility for this situation must be accepted by Indian politicians of all hues, who in their ruthless quest for votes and political one-upmanship, have systematically undermined every instrument of state, and rendered the nation vulnerable. While using it to gain electoral “brownie points” they have failed to make terrorism an issue of sharp focus for the security establishment, and our response to the asymmetric war has therefore remained disjointed, fragmented and disorganized for three reasons.

Firstly the netas have has emasculated the police forces and made the intelligence agencies ineffective by interference and politicization, so that they are unable to discharge their core functions. Secondly, the national security establishment has encouraged turf distribution and creation of fiefdoms, and thereby deprived itself of the benefits of holistic thinking and synchronized action. And lastly, in a system that must be unique world-wide, the Armed Forces are kept on the margins of national security management by a powerful bureaucracy, and rarely consulted or heard by politicians; even on issues in which they have exclusive expertise.

Let us return to Mumbai, which is not only a metropolis, port city and financial hub but also home to vital India’s nuclear establishments and the Western Naval Command. There can be little doubt that the city’s porous water-front is its Achilles heel, as is the state’s long coastal belt. But Maharashtra received adequate warning 15 years ago, when in 1993 the “mafia” landed a few tons of arms and explosives by boat near Ratnagiri, and with police connivance, transported them to Mumbai for the carnage that was to follow.

Soon thereafter, all coastal states were directed by the Centre to raise marine police wings equipped with high speed boats and communication equipment. To my knowledge, only Kerala has put together a small unit of this type, while the other states unrealistically expect the IN or the CG to undertake coastal policing functions. These two Services are meant to operate at sea, and cannot, for example, undertake patrolling of Juhu, Chowpatti, Cuffe Parade or Alibag; which is the job of the marine police.

However, that is not all. Like much else in our country, port and coastal security is in a total mess, because at least 14 ministries, departments and agencies (e.g. MoST, MHA, MoD, DG Shipping, ONGC, Customs, Immigration, Fisheries and so on) have a degree of involvement in maritime related issues. Most of the time our security is compromised because the left hand does not know what the right is doing. Agencies work at cross purposes, while important harbours like Mumbai remain unguarded.

For years, the IN has been pleading with te GoI that there is a dire need to constitute a central Maritime Commission for regulation, coordination and oversight of maritime security. That this eminently sensible proposal is languishing due to bureaucratic obduracy is proof of our political myopia and lack of resolve. Let us look at how other nations handle similar situations.

New York was struck by terrorists on 11th September 2001. By 1st October, a Homeland Defence Command had been established and placed under a 4-star military officer. The US Secretary of the Army stated: “…homeland security is the No. 1 job for the US military and we will act accordingly.” On 26th October, Public Law 107-56 was enacted by the US Congress without debate. The contrived acronym USA PATRIOT (standing for: Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism) explains the purport of the Act. With the sweeping powers available, the Homeland Defence Command has ensured that the USA has remained free of terrorism since 2001. Need one say more?

France, perceiving many serious threats from seawards, revived an old Napoleonic institution: the Prefet Maritime (Maritime Prefect) to implement security in a coherent and holistic manner. This functionary is the “…servant of the French State who exercises authority over the sea in a Prefecture. He reports to the Prime Minister for civil functions and to the Chief of Defence Staff for military operations.” A 3-star Admiral each has been placed in charge of the Mediterranean, Atlantic and Channel coasts of France, and is empowered to coordinate the efficient functioning of agencies like the navy, coast guard, marine police, customs, immigration, pollution control, search & rescue etc. No bickering like we have in Mumbai; France can afford to sleep in peace.

India’s coastal, maritime and national security too, would be tremendously enhanced if the Commanders-in-Chief of the Western and Eastern Naval Commands were to be similarly empowered. But for that we will not only need to reach a higher level of security consciousness but also learn to repose faith, confidence and responsibility in the only national institution which continues to function with dedication, efficiency and intense patriotism: the Indian Armed Forces.

Every newspaper and TV channel is, today, reflecting how drastically the stock of the politician has fallen with the common man. If India’s polity wants to redeem itself in the public eye they must forget hypocritical vacuous statements, forget ex-gratia payments, forget commissions of enquiry; there is only one service they can perform for the nation. And that is to convene an emergency session of both Houses of Parliament, and, sinking their petty differences, show the people that for once they have not their own, but the nation’s vital interests at heart.

This historic session of Parliament should enact or start the process for legislation for:

· Constituting a Homeland Defence Organization, be it a civil ministry, a military command or a combination of the two, with appropriate instruments at its disposal.
· Empowerment of this organization with wide-ranging authority to, inter alia, monitor the movements, search and detain if necessary individuals suspected of posing a threat to the nation, gain access to telephones, e-mails, bank accounts and any other information in the interest of homeland safety.
· Implementing reforms to free the police forces of the debilitating yoke of political interference.

Yes this will be a draconian measure, but for how long must the people of India remain hostage to terror exported from the neighbourhood, due to the weakness and lack of resolve of our leaders?

(Admiral Prakash was Chief of the Naval Staff from 31 July 2004-31 Oct 2006. He currently lives in Dehradun. This column is from a magazine he contributes to.)

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Dec 2008 22:45

McCain in ND to show solidarity (on his way to BD).

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 02 Dec 2008 22:49

NRao wrote:McCain in ND to show solidarity (on his way to BD).

I would urge McCain show how balls look like to the Delhi wallahs.

Actually GOI should import some balls from Israel, thyen gradually DRDO can start local manufacture

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 Dec 2008 22:58

Delhi walahs are so old that even if you provide them with balls, they have to actually import even those men who donated it to use them.
..

It would be easier to spend money in sending a space mission that houses multiple giant scramjet engines to spearhead an asteroid from asteroid belt destination pakistan. Money well spent than spending billions in Indian elections.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 02 Dec 2008 23:03

SaiK wrote:Delhi walahs are so old that even if you provide them with balls, they have to actually import even those men who donated it to use them.

In case you guys have forgotten ,the ruler Umm Khaadims Rajiva Sultana have no balls and Khaadims are made khassi before they get assigned to harem.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 02 Dec 2008 23:20

Reading with great care including the writings of Trivedi ji, I am of the firm opinion we can not and will not win a war against TSP.

First our Armed forces structure thinking and training is well grounded in the proud tradition of mahabharata, where in we gather all our might in a open maidan like in the deserts of Rajastan, kutch, punjab and Kashmirto wage a dharma yudh, but alas the enemy will not be there to engage in such a war.

He is actually busy in our own land in TN AP Maharashtra, Karnataka where our economic nerves are working full steam.

The smart COAS etc are meanwhile busy procuring junk like T-90, AK-47 MBRLs etc from our friends Ivans in Moskava.

MOD and its great kakhi generals have no clue how to help in assymetric warfare or deploy rapid reaction force. Kargil has been 10 yrs agao I dont think even now the COAS has an understanding of rapid deployment or mobilization. Some how our leaders really come up with very apt names COLD start, who can blame them if it doesnt start, we should have named it jump start, with nuke fuel from unkil.

The above article by CONS is clear indication how much rott has set in. The civil defense structure is more to serve the politician loot the country.

What we need is leadership who think of the country first not the ways to get ahead in the scheme of things , but then its too much to ask these days