Indian Response to Terrorism

[Amber G.]

I would urge McCain show how balls look like to the Delhi wallahs. ...

hmm.. don't want to be harsh but this is very offensive .. I don't believe Delhi wallahs or any one else in India needs that kind advise ..as to you "model hero" whom you are urging to teach delhi wallahs ...here is the news clip;
McCain opposes military action against Pak

New Delhi, Dec 2 (PTI) Influential US Senator John McCain today opposed India launching military strikes against Pakistan in the wake of Mumbai attacks saying there was "no hard evidence yet" for such action and he would tell Islamabad to cooperate in the probe.
McCain, who ran unsuccessfully in the US Presidential poll last month, said he "assumed" that the Pakistan government would cooperate with India in bringing the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks to book.

Earlier, McCain along with fellow Senators Joe Liebermann and Lindsey Graham met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and expressed solidarity with India in the wake of the terror attacks.

"We would be meeting Pakistan General (Ashfaq) Kiyani over the weekend and raise some questions with him," Senator Joe Liebermann told reporters here.

"I assume the Government of Pakistan will cooperate. They realise that this act of terror is not something that affects India but all the civilised nations," McCain said.

"No," was his reply to a question whether the Mumbai attacks were a "fit case" for India to launch military action against Pakistan.

"We do not have hard evidence yet. Obviously, there are allegations that this organisation, this individual or this group were trained or operated or had some training in Pakistan," said McCain, who ran unsuccessfully in last month's US Presidential elections.

The senators pointed out that all parts of Pakistan were not completely under government control and the US is helping Islamabad gain control of the entire country. PTI

Frankly, these kind of comments ( about what/how/whom should be importing "balls" etc), to put it mildly, very idiotic.

[samuel]

In such precipitating events of an otherwise well-established dynamic, taking a long time
to think up a response is an indication of poor preparation or the absence of nationalist
objectives. We have been remiss in the latter far more than the former.

So, first, we must build public opinion to eliminate terror in our neighborhood, starting with
Pakistan. If we take this oath, then we are well on our way. We have been hitting the
snooze button all too often and it is time to wake up, it is past sunrise!

We must force the government to commit to ending terror in the neighborhood. Getting to
such a resolution or law through parliamentary action will need serious effort and that is what
incidents like this, unfortunate as that is, can help with. Once law, people can litigate
to force government to reveal it has a satisfactory apparatus. Through private citizen action,
we can monitor and tally the govt's promises.

The government must be forced to endow the organization with the means to designate and eliminate
designated terror targets. We can also do this through legislative means, and we can litigate if necessary
to force action in response to crises. But, demand for response is best fought in the realm of public awareness,
provided the goals and apparatus have been enshrined into law.

We must remind people to not forget the deaths caused in each incident. It must not fade in
memory. In order to do that, we must develop means of collecting and dissemination events.

We must tally what action each politician has taken in response to terror incidents. We can fund
the making of movies, documentaries, books, letters, reviews, litigation and other means to keep
memory alive.

We must inform people of the nature of islamist terror in our neighborhood.

Because information is now truly global, it is possible for such public action to survive censorship.

Thus, maybe rather than worrying about what GoI will do, it may be useful to think about what
like minded people like us can do. It will count for a lot in time, I am willing to bet.

S

[Johann]

Re. American responses

- They would support an Indian demand for Dawood - his smuggling and financial operations have become more and more integrated with the Arab jihadis. If he gets pushed in to the UAE the Americans will facilitate his arrest. Saudi Arabia would be harder given the far less cooperative attitude of Saudi intelligence, but still not impossible. But overall they see his capture as a potential intelligence goldmine, and the opportunity to disrupt Al Qaeda and Taliban procurement/transportation/laundering networks from Pakistan to the outside world.

- The Americans, both Bush and Obama are not going to allow the PA to get away with cutting peace deal with the Taliban and redeploying east. Pressure will be brought to bear on the Pakistanis to prevent that - however that also means pressure on India to avoid a Parakram type mobilisation along the full length of the IB

Re. Zardari

Well articulated Harbans. Any Indian effort will eventually have to move beyond Zardari to co-opting the majority Pakistani political class, including Nawaz Sharif. Without that there will be a problem of 'anti India' and 'pro India' rhetoic in the political struggles within Pakistan, just like Bangladesh. That isnt good enough

All of Pakistan's regional parties, including Nawaz Sharif's PPP have problems with the status quo, and can be cultivated. All of them chafe at the ISI's power to remake the political map from time to time. Breaking its power over the internal political landscape is an important step, and Zardari deserves everyones support in this struggle.

Re. the despair here

Pakistan as it has been is a dead man walking, dying slowly but surely on its feet. It is not going to take down India with it, but it is going to thrash about in its final throes before it turns in to something else. The focus in India should be on internal security to minimise the damage inflicted as that thrashing gets more and more desperate.

If the GoI fails to act seriously and effectively towards it, the vacuum created in terms of public confidence could lead to greater extremism, and greater vigilantism by fed up parties, and the destructive interaction between the two could achieve far more than Pakistan could on its own.

There is plenty of potential in India for broad, inclusive civil society movements not to take the law in to their own hands, but to pressure the government to do its job and uphold the law. Students, professionals, the retired, business people of all religions and castes who are part of India's economic and technological renewal and who believe in the centre *have* to come together and play an active part in pushing decision-makers to do their job - protect them. That means everything from creating a powerful prosecutor's offfice staffed with the best lawyers and adequately resourced, to appropriately distributing capable tactical CT forces, to improving air and sea surveillance, to tightening border control, to decriminalising political culture, etc, etc. But in order to do these things there has to be a coherent public lobby that politicians of *all* parties have to appease.

[amdavadi]

Macain can shows balls? He couldnt show balls during election, how would he show balls to GOI?

Days to learn from macain is over, GOI need to look within or look at Team India lead by Dhoni to grow some balls

[surinder]

But in order to do these things there has to be a coherent public lobby that politicians of *all* parties have to appease.

And there lies India's problem.

Politicians, if they are worth their salt, have to adjust their own direction, tastes, opionons to match those from whom they get the votes. The public has shown little coherence, politicians do not need to adjust to anything coherent either. That ulimately is the truth.

[John Snow]

Thanks amber g.

what did you expect Amerikhan to do, tell us to go to war?

When BUsh said way back India has the right to defend itself , it did nothing.
Obama says India has the right to hit back...

Now what is missing except some display of balls. Lets cut the crap and come to the point, the present GOI has no clue as to how to react, except make calls and finds out everybody next to his kith and kin are safe.

Precedents have been set and precendents are being followed.

Precedents set
India will not do anything even if bombs go off every now and then and people are killed.

Precedents followed
TSP has taken a lesson that there is nobody with any balls even no ball , as nothing was ever hurled in anger.

Let me know if some thing is hurled by Delhi then I will retract that no balls in Delhi.
Meanwhile read the article by Adm Arun Praksah ji.

Let us be thankful that terrorists did not go towards anu shakthi nagar or trombay.
At the curret rate it will be next, they are going up the ladder of escalation scott free.

Yes it is sad we have to say no balls in Delhi thats it, the whole world knows about it.

The fact that so many got killed before anybody knew anything that was going on is more offensive than suggesting no balls.
Good Luck in your discovery contrary to my speculation. I will be the first to rejoice and atone if found one and let me know
Best Regards

PS: I am forum idiot is well known and your certification adds to my might. Thanks once again ( A man is known by the company he keeps we do visit this forum dont we?)

[vsudhir]

Its no secret that Indians only act and re-act during crises. Crises are what brings home the gaps & holes, failures & follies. One should perhaps be thankful to crises coz but for them little would have changed since 1947 - just ‘em gora sahibs replaced by ‘em brown ones.

If not for 1962, IA would have been seriously ill-eqipped and neglected. If not for '93, Dawood would still be in Mumbai. If not for Kargil, who knows?

What will/did this crisis achieve? Thats what I am waiting and watching for.
Best case is an institutional response against domestic enablers of terror that has so far been woefully lacking. Delinking investigation and prosecution, law-enforcement and the ruling party, fast track courts and nationwide databases, emergency procedures, 1-800 numbers, *much* better training and equipment for local law enforcement and the like. That would be an awesome achievement in as large, diverse and chaotic a nation such as ours.

Of course, I realize that this crisis is too small for such overarching changes to be instituted but a start down this road would be awesome. Hopefully, that’s not too much to ask for.

That would be better to aim for rather than an all-out war fought with nebulous strategic aims.

Also, emergency response websites detailing contacts and other details of major police stations, fire stations, hospitals and such for the top 20 cities in India would be a start too.

JMTs etc.

[RajeshA]

John Snow,

You have got a serious bout of pessimisitis, mate!

The French Republic is currently at version 5.0, and still it is mulling over French Socialism vs. Neo-Liberalism etc.

I would say the Indian Republic awaits version 3.0. The first batch batch got us the Independence and molded into a state and a nation. The second generation enriched themselves on the gullibility of the poor and the divided. The third version is still to emerge, based on patriotic leadership and accountable governance. Indian managers who are in demand all over the globe will sooner or later find their way into Indian politics also. This is unavoidable.

Cheers

[surinder]

Pakistan as it has been is a dead man walking, dying slowly but surely on its feet.

J,

India has beleived this idea of since 1947 (that TSP has been a dead man walking). It is 60 years hence and few of those predicitons have come true. It is a cat that has 9 lives. It keeps going on, and on, and on. So I am not sure there is enough in this prediction to beleive that it will come true. Yes, times look tough for TSP right now on the Western front. But it may well pass and things may start looking more normal soon. TSP is a nation that is good in springing back. Bottom line: With all due respct, as much as I would like to beleive your logic, time has shown it not to be true.

[samuel]

What evidence do we have that the US, UK and China will not continue to prop
Pakistan up indefinitely against India's best interests? We've been given this Pakistan
is dead logic for a long time, no evidence to support it. It is a canard best suited as cover
for propping it up.

If there was some fundamental
love for India as in its democratic values and diversity, what explains reality?

[cholaraja]

only two arabic and two chinese lingusits in RAW - god hel India (well, god may like to, but you have at least try for godsake(

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/7760460.stm

[Manu]

Re. the despair here

If the GoI fails to act seriously and effectively towards it, the vacuum created in terms of public confidence could lead to greater extremism, and greater vigilantism by fed up parties

Since I know Johann (on BR) for some time, permit me to be so bold....

What exactly do you mean by "greater" extremism and "greater" vigilantism? For something to be greater, it has to exist in the first place.

There is none of that, right now, unless one has fallen for the Malegaon lie that the UPA goons have been peddling.

Or unless you think Godhra Riots are an example of vigilantism.

In a country where 300K Hindus have been made Refugees in their own country (yes, I mean Kashmir), the remarkable tolerance shown should infact, be viewed by some as rank cowardice.

[svinayak]

I would urge McCain show how balls look like to the Delhi wallahs. ...

hmm.. don't want to be harsh but this is very offensive .. I don't believe Delhi wallahs or any one else in India needs that kind advise ..as to you "model hero" whom you are urging to teach delhi wallahs ...here is the news clip;
McCain opposes military action against Pak

New Delhi, Dec 2 (PTI) Influential US Senator John McCain today opposed India launching military strikes against Pakistan in the wake of Mumbai attacks saying there was "no hard evidence yet" for such action and he would tell Islamabad to cooperate in the probe.
McCain, who ran unsuccessfully in the US Presidential poll last month, said he "assumed" that the Pakistan government would cooperate with India in bringing the perpetrators of Mumbai attacks to book.

The senators pointed out that all parts of Pakistan were not completely under government control and the US is helping Islamabad gain control of the entire country. PTI

Frankly, these kind of comments ( about what/how/whom should be importing "balls" etc), to put it mildly, very idiotic.

Not a surprise. Talked to several Americans and they seem to be worried about India attacking Pakistan. I asked them why. Back of their mind is the Afghanistan border and the clash with the tribal area. This time period is a bad period for America in term of war because of the Christmas holidays which the troops are waiting for after a long time. Pak decision to move the troops away from the afghan border at this time before the holidays will complicate things. Hence McCain is in Delhi personally.

The election was supposed to bring in change in the US govt policy to ease deployment in Iraq and Pakistan. Recent escalation in Pakistan/Afghan border during Sept/Oct 2008 was to give one final push to the effort before change during the holiday season.

[svinayak]

But in order to do these things there has to be a coherent public lobby that politicians of *all* parties have to appease.

And there lies India's problem.

Politicians, if they are worth their salt, have to adjust their own direction, tastes, opionons to match those from whom they get the votes. The public has shown little coherence, politicians do not need to adjust to anything coherent either. That ulimately is the truth.

Media is the tool which is used to disrupt the coherent public lobby.

[krithivas]

This is day 6 after the mayhem - GoI has the following to show:
1) Two resignations, not including one withdrawn resignation; and,
2) One Demarche consigned to the dustbin even before it was issued;
3) Unilaternal condemnation and sympathy; and
3) High profile visits telling us what not to do.

R. Krithivas

[vsudhir]

JOhann,

A minor nitprick onlee

All of Pakistan's regional parties, including Nawaz Sharif's PPP have problems with the status quo, and can be cultivated.

Its Nawaz Sharif's PML(N) and not PPP, unless that is, you know something about this the rest of us have no clue about.... pls to enlighten us.

[Johann]

Surinder,

There is a difference between the capacity to do harm, and the health of an individual or state.

Pakistan's capacity to do harm has mounted while its own health has declined.

What has not kept pace is India's ability to minimise Pakistan's ability and will to do harm to it

60 years later Pakistan is a far, far more troubled state than it was in 1948. Never has the Pakistani state been so weak in terms of its ability to enforce its will on its own soil against foreign or domestic parties. Never has it been more strategically vulnerable, and more economically unviable.

The Soviet Union took 74 years to die, and it did a great deal of harm while it lived. When it died, it took much of what was the Russian Empire with it. Soviet power peaked in the late 1970s, and then declined, but only in the last 2-3 years did it seem possible that it might die, and even then it was a surprise to many.

India must focus on preventing and mitigating Pakistani harm within India while it dies.


V Sudhir,

Thanks for catching that embarassing typo - I meant PML-N


Manu,

The violence of the anti-Bihari movement in Mumbai is an example of what I mean by extremism. Anybody, with any cause decides to put together street power and violently coerce the rest of society in to giving them what they want.

In terms of vigilantism I am talking about the potential formation of militias and secret societies that go out and take action against those they regard as enemies.

Godhra was mob mass-retribution, not vigilantism, and its what happens when the state is known to be unwilling or incapable of delivering security through the police and the courts.

All of these are symptoms of a problem that create yet more problems, not the solution to any of India's problems. Security vacuums, vacuums of law and order are dangerous things that are filled with movements and groups and events that attempt to assuage the desire for security but create more insecurity.

The only effective forward is not to abandon the system, but for people to come together and play their part in pushing the system to do its job the right way.

[svinayak]

This is day 6 after the mayhem - GoI has the following to show:
1) Two resignations, not including one withdrawn resignation; and,
2) One Demarche consigned to the dustbin even before it was issued;
3) Unilaternal condemnation and sympathy; and
3) High profile visits telling us what not to do.

R. Krithivas

Keep a checklist on a daily basis for atleast 25 days.
Let us check it out

[John Snow]

John Snow,

You have got a serious bout of pessimisitis, mate!

The French Republic is currently at version 5.0, and still it is mulling over French Socialism vs. Neo-Liberalism etc.

I would say the Indian Republic awaits version 3.0. The first batch batch got us the Independence and molded into a state and a nation. The second generation enriched themselves on the gullibility of the poor and the divided. The third version is still to emerge, based on patriotic leadership and accountable governance. Indian managers who are in demand all over the globe will sooner or later find their way into Indian politics also. This is unavoidable.

Cheers

I agree I am pessimist, I should be otherway I did not lose any near and dear.

Isnt it dumb to compare French to Indian situation? ( I am a certified idiot hence I smell dumb things fast )

Our Sovereignty has been repeatdly raped (draw a time line since 9-11) yet there was no reprisal on anybody, the pessismism stems from the fact as more and more information like the CONS article points out basics being wrong.

As optimist predict three courses of action thaqt GOI will take to take the battle to the enemy.

Please exclude the following

1) Appoint a commision,(I have booked my berth on this)

2) Develop Cold Starts 2 based on the most current experience.

3) Send a delegation to many western countries to study "how other countries fight terror".


To err under terror attack first time around is pardonable, to continue to err in action everytime is the seed of pessimism.

[samuel]

The best way to keep India down is to ask her to work on internal security
and forget about the external forces that must be managed to be secure.

It is dangerous to suggest that external forces will either regulate themselves
naturally or be regulated by someone else acting in our best interest.
A commitment to either option leaves us without the means to manage
our neighborhood, ending up in effect, fighting the conflict within our shores.

Reality, with all due respect, points entirely to what is being done to us,
from Pakistan and beyond and that is what India must respond to first.

What is even more distressing is the suggestion that India is prone
to spontaneous combustion, without any external force. Why is that, may I ask?

India must focus on preventing Pakistani harm.
(wherever it originates, whether or not Pakistan is dying).

[SaiK]

I find more than 99% of desi billion still feels that it is not a crisis yet. Pliss remember that we only do crisis management.

[John Snow]

here is a cause for optimism. Get ready the fax machine and let MMS himself wait at it.

****

Uh, oh…the old fax again:

India renewed its years-old demand for about 20 fugitives it believes are hiding in Pakistan, via a protest note given to Pakistan's High Commissioner Shahid Malik in New Delhi on Monday

India demands Pakistani hand over fugitives

[svinayak]

In such precipitating events of an otherwise well-established dynamic, taking a long time
to think up a response is an indication of poor preparation or the absence of nationalist
objectives. We have been remiss in the latter far more than the former.

So, first, we must build public opinion to eliminate terror in our neighborhood, starting with
Pakistan. If we take this oath, then we are well on our way. We have been hitting the
snooze button all too often and it is time to wake up, it is past sunrise!

We must force the government to commit to ending terror in the neighborhood. Getting to
such a resolution or law through parliamentary action will need serious effort and that is what
incidents like this, unfortunate as that is, can help with. Once law, people can litigate
to force government to reveal it has a satisfactory apparatus. Through private citizen action,
we can monitor and tally the govt's promises.

The government must be forced to endow the organization with the means to designate and eliminate
designated terror targets. We can also do this through legislative means, and we can litigate if necessary
to force action in response to crises. But, demand for response is best fought in the realm of public awareness,
provided the goals and apparatus have been enshrined into law.

We must remind people to not forget the deaths caused in each incident. It must not fade in
memory. In order to do that, we must develop means of collecting and dissemination events.

We must tally what action each politician has taken in response to terror incidents. We can fund
the making of movies, documentaries, books, letters, reviews, litigation and other means to keep
memory alive.

We must inform people of the nature of islamist terror in our neighborhood.

Because information is now truly global, it is possible for such public action to survive censorship.

Thus, maybe rather than worrying about what GoI will do, it may be useful to think about what
like minded people like us can do. It will count for a lot in time, I am willing to bet.

S

Very good post.
Keep it up.

In 2001 I had posted the policy changes in India which are required for the next 25 years. The entire India's neighbourhood has to be changed to make it terror free which will take 25 years.

[munna]

I find more than 99% of desi billion still feels that it is not a crisis yet. Pliss remember that we only do crisis management.

Exactly Saik saar! If you and other regular forumites recollect Shiv had done gaming regarding nuking of Indian city/cities triggered by Paki-a-satan in its last throes. I think that with such emboldened operations against an A-list city of India we might have entered a crisis zone that most Indians do not have the awareness to fathom. Given the sheer scale and reckless nature of the operation coupled with connivance/conspiracy of circumstances we can safely expect something even more dastardly in immediate future with reasonable certitude. I think a doddering Pakistan can go to any lengths to take us down. I humbly ask for a thread for the specific gaming of a dirty bomb/AQ bomb against India from bradmins. This is a NUCLEAR war we are facing from 26/11 onwards whether we realize this or not.

[ramana]

There are conflicting signals for US. BO speaks of India's right to defend itself with a lot of caveats. McCain comes and suggest what India is anyway thinking of. US officials claim they gave info to India many times implying that they were cooperative and not to be seen as supporting TSP. So what is the US stance? Also recall with half baked info Iraq got it trouble. I dont know what the real stance of US is.

John Snow it pays to read and find out what people think cant be done for it will show what can be done.

BTW I saw on Zeenews last night the picture of MV Kuber. its a small fishing boat more like e motorized dhow. its not a fishing vessel like one imagines in Alastair Maclean's novels.

One thing interesting is the owner who was murdered had been caught in TSP waters and jailed. He was released later. How do we know that he wasn't rendevouszing with the Paki ship and later got dispatched? I am sorry he got killed but its a lot of coinicdence that it was his ship that got hijacked.

[KiranM]

Talking of a covert response, wish the part from 2:30 min happened with the pigs responsible.

http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=ZiuMXaZIF ... re=related
- Air Force One (Film) SF raid

I know its just a movie. But if the Paras do that to pigs in Lahore and the Marcos to the Dawood pig in Karachi (as in Navy Seals film, raid on Beirut), that will be one helluva response.

[samuel]

The US is in a bind. This happened to it, and it went around uprooting a whole neighborhood
(on far more flimsy nonevidence).

What can America ask India to NOT do, now?
Since this is the transition period, unless McCain wants to rake some internal issues up, the modus operandi
must be largely silence, which is what I am seeing.

But if India does what the US did, then we know what that could do in Afghanistan.
So, another reason for silence or conflicting responses.

There is I believe a third way that starts with the coming together of US and India in the management
of Pakistan. Until the US can jump that gap and India does not display impatience and does not create
conditions for the US to jump that gap, there will be dead silence, hoping it will all go away.

But it won't, I hope. It has to burst out in the open now.

[NRao]

Ramana,

I do not see any conflict between any of them.

The confusion is about the involvement of ANY Pakistani establishment - GoP/PA/ISI. There can be no war IF India cannot prove that either of them were involved. So far the GoI has not stated any of them are involved (there are some experts that have made such statements and perhaps some news outlets). (IF GoI has blamed GoP/PA/ISI I stand corrected ....... but I have not seen any so far.)

Obama/Rice/McCain are saying the same thing. My read is that they are supporting what India is saying so far - there is evidence that a Paki group was involved, IF so, Pakis need to act as promised.

I think/feel that the screws need to be turned and India will get US help on this account.

But see below. This topic is already old, Pakis have escalated this topic to a totally diff level. I think the US has no option right now.

[NRao]

IF the US is in a bind, Pakis have solved that, this actually goes a step further than what Ahmed Rashid mentioned this AM on NPR (live).

On what grounds can the US support Pakiland? India has to get off the mute button.

Taliban are 'patriots,' says Pakistani Army official

By Bill RoggioDecember 1, 2008 12:49 PM
A senior Pakistani military official called two senior Taliban leaders "patriots," signaling a shift in posture against the Taliban in the Northwest Frontier Province. The Mumbai terror siege and India's reaction may lead the Pakistani Army to negotiate peace agreements with the Taliban to free up troops for the eastern border with India.

The official, who was not named, called Taliban leaders Baitullah Mehsud and Mullah Fazlullah "patriots" during a briefing with senior Pakistani journalists, The News reported. He said the military and the Taliban are clashing due to "some misunderstandings."

"We have no big issues with the militants in Fata [the Federally Administered Tribal Areas],” the official said. "We have only some misunderstandings with Baitullah and Fazlullah. These misunderstandings could be removed through dialogue." {Explain that to Obama now}

Baitullah is the head of the Pakistani Taliban and a warlord in South Waziristan. Baitullah has defeated the Pakistani military in multiple battles the past several years. Fazlullah is the head of the Taliban in Swat, where the government has been fighting to gain control of the region for more than a year.

Taliban groups throughout the tribal areas and the greater Northwest Frontier Province "offered a ceasefire if the Pakistan Army also stops its operations," The News reported. "The Indian allegations against Pakistan have suddenly forced the military establishment in Pakistan to finally accept that they are not fighting an American war inside the Pakistani territory."

"Tribesmen" in Taliban-controlled North Waziristan contacted the government last weekend to offer their support to defend Pakistan's border with India. The North Waziristan leaders said they could raise 3 million tribesmen to fight the Indians. The leaders also "urged the government to move the armed forces to its eastern border in the wake of the aggressive Indian intensions."

The removal of Pakistani forces from the insurgency-plagued northwest would ease the pressure on the Taliban in Bajaur and Swat, where military operations have been ongoing in months. This would also allow the Taliban to consolidate its power throughout the Northwest Frontier Province.

Indian police and intelligence officials have implicated the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba and the criminal network of Dawood Ibrahim, who is based in Karachi, as being behind the 62-hour terror siege of Mumbai last week. Elements of Pakistan's military and intelligence service have also been fingered in the Mumbai attacks.

Pakistani defense officials threatened to withdraw the 100,000 troops from the northwest last weekend in response to what it perceived as Indian "threats." The next day, another senior defense official denied the Army was redeploying to the Indian frontier. The Indian Army also denied it was mobilizing its forces on the Pakistani border.

As the rhetoric between the Taliban and the Army cools, a senior Taliban leader threatened to "annex" northwestern Pakistan if the government continues to support the US and NATO. Hakeemullah Mehsud, a senior deputy of Baitullah, demanded the government halt the movement of NATO supplies destined for Afghanistan through Pakistani territory. He also wants the government to end military operations in the northwest.

"His group will capture Pakistan if Islamabad continues to support NATO’s operation in Afghanistan," Zee News reported. "In fact, Taliban will not hesitate in taking over Peshawar, Hangur, and eventually the whole Pakistan."

The Pakistani government has inked peace agreements with the Taliban in the tribal areas and the Northwest Frontier Province between 2004 and 2008. The agreements broke down as the Taliban violated the terms of the agreements and continued to consolidate more territory under their control. These agreements have ceded the tribal areas and large swaths of the Northwest Frontier Province to the Taliban.

Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and other allied terror groups have established more than 150 training camps in Pakistan's northwest. More camps exist in Baluchistan and in other regions of Pakistan.

[SBajwa]

By NRao

I just hope India is prepared for eventualities that will result from any handing over of militants to India.

You mean stock up on Chai and Biscoots of assorted varieties to along with pastries and Dal Pakoras?

[samuel]

Suppose the Pakistani Army has concluded that the civilian administration has to go.
Suppose then that it rakes things up by pushing an operation against India and irritating
the US on the other side. Suppose the natural response of India on the right US on the left
will be to
a) continue to support the "democratic" govt.
in which case the army continues to consolidate
or
b) comes down against the govt.
in which case the army, read ISI, is back in action.


Is there evidence to think the civilian govt has been turning the nuts in Pakistan under Zardari
(that seems very implausible to me, so there must be an alternative explanation...)

Or is this another he said, he did not ala Kargil brewing.

[ramana]

The US is in a bind. This happened to it, and it went around uprooting a whole neighborhood.
What can it ask India to not to do now?
But if India does what the US did, then we know what that could do in Afghanistan.

There is I believe a third way that starts with the coming together of US and India in the management
of Pakistan. Until the US can jump that gap and India does not display impatience and does not create
conditions for the US to jump that gap, there will be dead silence, hoping it will all go away.

But it won't, I hope. It has to burst out in the open now.

US will cooperate only if it knows India wants to the job herself. Mukherjee just took that option of the table. I had earlier on some page said India has to force US to make TSP turn on the jihadis. That way the implosion occurs. However TSP knows that they want an explosion.

If you go thru the leaked stories the TSP have left clear evidence of their invovlement all the way- nationality of the terroists, traning, equipment, POF bullets, POF timers and detonating fuses, sat phone calls, PN charting the routes. They are not giving any plausible deniability chance to the victims. They want to be found out. Why?

All this evidence should be published and made clear and used to force the TSP to take care of the problem. If they dont do anything IWT can be null and void for starters

Why dont we discuss how to help US jump the gap?

SBajwa, Last time India had prisoners they ended up with IC 814. Thats what is being alluded to.

[samuel]

Why dont we discuss how to help US jump the gap?

This would be the right time to do it, because I think Obama just left us with an opening.
Something went right in those briefings.
S

[SwamyG]

They want to be found out. Why?

Or, maybe it is someone else who wants us to find that. Unkil or Panda? Sorry I had to put my conspiracy theory hat on.

[ramana]

All hats are accepted. No rants.

[NRao]

There is no gap between the US and India - in this case there were none.

My current read is that the gap within Pakiland has become wider - AND, I SUSPECT they will NOT be able to close it without a upheaval internally.

GoP (current) and some elements within PA have split.

I can see a coup down the road.

There is absolutely no reason for Pakistan to talk about taking 100K troops from A'stan border and yet they have TALKED about it.

This is a done deal - I think.

All that HAS to ahppen is the split of Pakistan.

[vsudhir]

Alrite. India has given TSP a list of 20 most wanted to be handed over as part of its demarche to the TSP high-on-druge commissioner. Its confirmed. Apols if posted previously.

Link

Sending a tough message, India on Tuesday said it has demanded the handing over of Lashkar-e-Toiba chief Hafiz Mohammad and other fugitives in Pakistan in the wake of Mumbai terror attacks [Images] and would await Islamabad's [Images] response.

In significant remarks, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said only time will show what will be done by India but made it clear that nobody was talking about military action.

"Now, we have in our demarche asked (for) the arrest and handover of those persons who are settled in Pakistan and who are fugitives of Indian law," External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said on the sidelines of a function to inaugurate the India-Arab Forum.

Pakistan's High Commissioner to India Shahid Malik was summoned by the Ministry of External Affairs on Monday and issued a demarche (protest note).

"...there are lists of about 20 persons. (These) lists are sometimes altered and this exercise is going on and we have renewed it in our demarche," Mukherjee said, adding that India will await Pakistan's response.

India has handed over to Pakistan a list of 20 terrorists, including Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Mohammad and Jaish-e-Mohammad chief Masood Azhar besides Dawood Ibrahim [Images], who are based in that country and are suspected to be behind terror attacks in India.

Wow. While we are at it, could we also have 'fugitives from Indian law' hiding in Dhaka and London also, pls? In London, the mofos are hiding rather openly, raising funds and making statements onlee.

[NRao]

I do not know how much to trust these blogs:

Pakistan: Cutting Deal With Taliban? (You better have a firewall to click on this puppy)

Pakistan haunted by jihadis in the closet

Roznama Jang: Militant Organizations Support Pakistan Against India

The Urdu-language newspaper Roznama Jang reports that all key militant groups in Pakistan’s tribal districts have offered a ceasefire in support of the Pakistani government should it decide to deploy its troops on the Indian border in view of the increasing tension after the Mumbai attacks.

There are indications that Pakistan may accept the ceasefire offer and stop military operations against the Taliban. The report added: ‘‘As a positive sign that this ceasefire offer may be accepted, the Pakistan Army has, as a first step, declared before the media some notorious militant commanders, including Baitullah Mehsud and Maulvi Fazlullah, as “patriotic” Pakistanis.’’
Baitullah Mehsud and Maulvi Fazlullah are the key leaders of the Taliban movement in Pakistan. Baitullah Mehsud has also been accused of plotting the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

The report added: ‘‘These two militant commanders... have invariably been accused of terrorism against Pakistan but the aftermath of the Mumbai carnage has suddenly turned terrorists into patriots.’’
The Roznama Jang quoted a senior Pakistani security official as saying: “We have no big issues with the militants in Fata [tribal districts]. We have only some misunderstandings with Baitullah Mehsud and Fazlullah. These misunderstandings could be removed through dialogue.”

Source: Roznama Jang, Pakistan, December 1, 2008

[samuel]

Isn't this a repeat of the Nawaz Sharif story, err dejavu all over again?

[RajeshA]

On TV in Germany today they are showing Thirteen Days. Watching the movie, with the Terror Attacks in Mumbai as background feels, uh ... thought-provoking.

Would have been nice, if some of our leaders had some strength and intelligence. Well ...

John Snow,

My bringing up France, was to say, that countries develop with time, and India too will develop.