Global Economy

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vsudhir
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

Nandu wrote:vsudhir, yeah moi too facing a pay cut. It has been long held management philosophy that laying off people is better than paycuts because layoffs get the disaffected people out of the company, while paycuts leave everybody demotalized. But many companies seem to be rethinking that in this environment. Luckily it is not that big a deal for us because SHQ is in a much more stable industry.

Of course, a lot of people count stock options as part of their compensation in the valley, and they have been facing an unofficial paycut for a while now.
Well, officially, paycuts help retain the experienced folks with the firm and also cuts down on training expenses etc for replacements. Besides, discontent is well-managed when the 'outside option' in economist jargon is far worse than a mere paycut.
vsudhir
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

Roaringly funny! Chance a read, folx.

Can You Still See the USA in Your Chevrolet?
Ah, California. The Golden State! To a penniless immigrant called Arnold Schwarzenegger, it was a land of plenty. Now Arnold is an immigrant of plenty in a penniless land. What’s the motto on the license plates? “Ah’ll be back …for more of your money!” In California you don’t have to be an orange to have your pips squeezed. The Terminator makes Gray Davis look like Calvin Coolidge. Care to terminate a government program, Governor? Hey, great idea! We’ll hire 200 people to do an impact study on terminating the Department of Impact Study Regulation and get back to you in a decade. And when Governor Girlyman has run out of state taxpayers to fleece for his ever more bloated bureaucracy, he’ll go to Washington to plead for a federal bailout of Cantaffordya.

California! The state that symbolizes the American Dream! If you can make it there, you’ll make it anywhere! No, wait, that’s New York. “This is the worst fiscal downturn since the Great Depression,” announced Governor Paterson. So what’s he doing? Why, he’s bringing in the biggest tax hike in New York history. If you can make it there, you’ll be paying state tax on it, sales tax, municipal tax, a doubled beer tax, a tax on clothing, a tax on cab rides, an “iTunes tax” on downloads from the Internet, a tax on haircuts, 137 new tax hikes in all. Call Albany today and order your new package of tax forms, for just $199.99, plus 12% tax on tax forms and 4% tax-form application fee partially refundable upon payment of the 7.5% tax-filing tax. If you can make it there, you’ll certainly have no difficulty making it in Tajikistan.
:rotfl:
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

as predicted, under economic stress the 'orderly and law-abiding' nature of
western societies goes out of the door. one founder of a oh-so-honest Danish
kamandu sw firm was also arrested and deported back recently due his
firm being a ponzi scheme. he was even the entrepreneur of the year.

NYT

As Economy Dips, Arrests for Shoplifting Soar

By IAN URBINA and SEAN D. HAMILL
Published: December 22, 2008

Richard R. Johnson is the first to admit it was a bad idea.

Recently laid off from a job building trailers in Elkhart, Ind., Mr. Johnson came up a dollar short at Martin’s Supermarket last month when he went to buy a $4.99 bottle of sleep medication. So, “for some stupid reason,” he tried to shoplift it and was immediately arrested.

“I was desperate, I guess,” said Mr. Johnson, 25, who said he had never been arrested before. As the economy has weakened, shoplifting has increased, and retail security experts say the problem has grown worse this holiday season. Shoplifters are taking everything from compact discs and baby formula to gift cards and designer clothing.

Police departments across the country say that shoplifting arrests are 10 percent to 20 percent higher this year than last. The problem is probably even greater than arrest records indicate since shoplifters are often banned from stores rather than arrested.

Much of the increase has come from first-time offenders like Mr. Johnson making rash decisions in a pinch, the authorities say. But the ease with which stolen goods can be sold on the Internet has meant a bigger role for organized crime rings, which also engage in receipt fraud, fake price tagging and gift card schemes, the police and security experts say.

And as temptation has grown for potential thieves, so too has stores’ vulnerability.

“More people are desperate economically, retailers are operating with leaner staffs and police forces are cutting back or being told to deprioritize shoplifting calls,” said Paul Jones, the vice president of asset protection for the Retail Industry Leaders Association.

The problem, he said, could be particularly acute this December, “the month of the year when shoplifting always goes way up.”

Two of the largest retail associations say that more than 80 percent of their members are reporting sharp increases in shoplifting, according to surveys conducted in the last two months.

Compounding the problem, stores are more reluctant to stop suspicious customers because they fear scaring away much-needed business. And retailers are increasingly trying to save money by hiring seasonal workers who, security experts say, are themselves more likely to commit fraud or theft and are less practiced at catching shoplifters than full-time employees are.

More than $35 million in merchandise is stolen each day nationwide, and about one in 11 people in America have shoplifted :eek: , according to the nonprofit National Association for Shoplifting Prevention.

“We used to see more repeat offenders doing it because of drug addiction,” said Samyah Jubran, an assistant district attorney in Knoxville who for 13 years has handled the bulk of the shoplifting cases there. “But many of these new offenders may be doing it because of the economic situation. Maybe they’re hurting at home, and they’re taking a risk they may not take otherwise.”

Much of the stolen merchandise is sold online.

Dave Finley, the president of Leadsonline.com, which offers software that helps store owners track stolen goods being sold online and at pawn shops, said his company had seen a 50 percent increase over the last year in the number of shoplifting investigations handled by the company.

Security experts say retail theft is also being facilitated by Web sites that sell fake receipts that thieves can use to obtain cash refunds for stolen merchandise.

Andreas Carthy, the creator of one such site, denied that he was assisting with fraud.

“We provide a no-questions-asked service,” he said in an e-mail message, adding that his site was intended for people looking for prank gifts or students seeking to inflate spending to get more generous allowances from their parents.

At about $40 each, the Web site — which insists they are “for novelty use only” — sells about 80 fake receipts a month, Mr. Carthy said.


Local law enforcement and retailers have been trying new tactics to battle shoplifting and other forms of retail crime.

----------------------
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1229455 ... lenews_wsj

For Denmark's Entrepreneur of Year, Something Was Rotten
Stein Bagger Pleads Guilty to Faking Software Deals; His Ph.D. Was Phony, Too :rotfl:

By ANDREW HIGGINS

COPENHAGEN -- At a banquet here late last month, accounting firm Ernst & Young feted a Danish software company for runaway growth under Stein Bagger, its dynamic chief executive. About a thousand guests, including Denmark's tax minister and leading business people, were there to applaud.

But Mr. Bagger, the night's big winner, wasn't there to pick up the accolade of "Entrepreneur of the Year" and two other awards. He was busy fleeing from what investigators now describe as Denmark's biggest business scam in decades.

Shortly before the banquet began, Mr. Bagger, 41 years old, vanished from a hotel in Dubai. He flew to New York, drove across America and then surrendered to police in Los Angeles. In the meantime, his award-winning company, IT Factory, declared bankruptcy. A liquidator has taken over IT Factory and is sifting through its affairs.

Sent back to Denmark Tuesday, Mr. Bagger cried and pleaded guilty before a Danish court to charges of aggravated fraud and forgery, crimes that could land him in jail for eight years, according to his court-appointed lawyer, Jesper Madsen.
More

"Most of his business was fake," says Jens Madsen, head of an economic-crimes unit now investigating the spectacular rise and fall of Mr. Bagger. The entrepreneur also happens to be a former bodybuilder who, before becoming a Danish tech superstar, posed for a Swedish muscle magazine dressed as Superman. He's now suspected of pumping up IT Factory's profits -- which nearly tripled last year -- through phony deals.

The gist of the allegations is that Mr. Bagger used a web of phantom firms to get money from banks and then used these same companies to place big purchase orders for IT Factory software and services. He was buying from himself using other people's money.

Speaking to a Danish tabloid last week, Mr. Bagger said he felt guilty, sorry and "so happy that everything got revealed." Threats from unnamed extortionists, he added, had sent him astray. "I can understand that some people feel I let them down," he was quoted as saying. His lawyer doesn't dispute the interview.

The saga has fascinated and appalled a nation that takes pride in its Nordic rectitude.

The chief investigator estimates the swindle amounted to around $185 million, a modest sum next to the alleged fraud of America's Bernard Madoff but enough to fuel a jet-set lifestyle of sports cars and French Riviera holidays sharply at odds with the Danish norm.

Looking for clues to what went wrong, Denmark's media have dug into Mr. Bagger's personal life, particularly his obsession with physical fitness: how he met his second wife in a favorite gym, how he made money in his pretech days hawking muscle-boosting protein products and how he hired a burly Hells Angels Motorcycle Club member as a bodyguard. (They, too, met at the gym.)

Asger Jensby, IT Factory's chairman, says he is flabbergasted by the fate of what he thought was a "real company" run by a chief executive who was "sharp, a bit arrogant, very articulate and extremely orderly."

Leading banks meanwhile are trying to figure out how much money they lost in Mr. Bagger's blowout. Danske Bank, Denmark's biggest, says its exposure to IT Factory, is 350 million Danish kroner (around $64 million). Also taken for a ride is a champion cycling team that Mr. Bagger promised to sponsor. Badly jolted, too, are the accountants who did his books and found no irregularities.

KPMG audited IT Factory's accounts from 2005 through 2007. Deloitte did the same in the previous two years. From 2003 through 2007, IT Factory reported that its revenue grew 69 times and its profit rose 288 times, to 121 million kroner ($22 million). This year, says Mr. Jensby, the chairman, IT Factory expected to roughly quadruple its profit.

KPMG in Denmark says it is "shocked" and "cooperating with police." Deloitte's Danish unit said it has double-checked its 2003 and 2004 audits and found no problems.

Ernst & Young, for its part, has now withdrawn the three awards it gave to IT Factory on the day Mr. Bagger took flight. "We feel deceived," said Søren Strøm, head of Ernst & Young's "Entrepreneur of the Year" program, in a statement. The accounting firm, he added, is "unable to understand the last few days' developments."

"If things look too good to be true, they probably are too good to be true," says Bo Svensson, the head of a Danish software company who started sending out emails last year warning that IT Factory simply didn't have enough known customers to explain its explosive growth. He sent one to Mr. Jensby, IT Factory's chairman, who insisted there was no need for concern.

Mr. Jensby now says he was wrong and estimates that at least 95% of IT Factory's reported business was fictitious. He says Mr. Bagger stashed documents relating to fraudulent transactions in a secret office that was discovered only recently.

Mr. Svensson also sent warnings about IT Factory to International Business Machines Corp. A member of IBM's European Business Partner Advisory Board, Mr. Svensson sent a long email to IBM managers in Denmark describing IT Factory as a "house of cards" liable to collapse.

"Something is completely wrong," he wrote, warning that Mr. Bagger posed a risk to IBM's own reputation as IT Factory "in all contexts positions itself very close to IBM." Mr. Bagger, whose company had offices in India and the U.S., often boasted of close ties to IBM and helped sponsor a big IBM software conference in Florida.

An IBM spokesman, citing the current criminal investigation, declined to comment on what, if anything, was done in response to Mr. Svensson's messages.

A few months after Mr. Svensson's warning, IBM Denmark named Mr. Bagger's company as the year's "Best Partner" in a software business line. The head of IBM Denmark this year hailed IT Factory as "creative and visionary." IBM has now filed a claim with IT Factory's liquidator to try to get back the 125 million kroner ($23 million) it says it is owed by Mr. Bagger's now defunct company.

One person to come out of the mess looking good is Dorte Toft, a 64-year-old free-lance journalist and blogger. She, too, received an email message from Mr. Svensson last year. A former computer programmer, Ms. Toft began swapping notes with Mr. Svensson, whom she initially knew only as "John Doe." In December, she wrote a blog challenging Mr. Bagger's extraordinary growth figures.

But, she says, virtually no one wanted to listen to "an old woman."

Mr. Bagger, she says, went to great lengths to conceal his deceptions. Earlier this year, she began to question Mr. Bagger about boasts that he had a Ph.D. from San Francisco Technical University. She asked how that was possible when no such university exists. Mr. Bagger came up with an elaborate plan.

On the pretext of developing talking points for college employees to answer phone queries about academic records, he hired Vicki Lang, an American artist and actress living in Copenhagen, to play the role of an official at San Francisco State University, an institution that does exist. "If I'd thought about it, I might have said: 'Oh, this sounds strange,' but I was just happy to have a job," recalls Ms. Lang.

He wrote a script for a dialogue between himself and Ms Lang, who, as a university official, would explain that his nonexistent college had been folded into San Francisco State and confirm that he had a Ph.D. in international business. Mr. Bagger then told Ms. Lang he'd like to test the script over the phone on the afternoon of Oct. 29. He called Ms. Toft, the skeptical blogger, to his office for an interview at the same time.

When Ms. Toft showed up and started asking questions, Mr. Bagger announced that he would call San Francisco to prove that he was telling the truth about his Ph.D. Ms. Toft, smelling a rat, told him not to bother: "I knew him too well."

Ms. Lang says she forgot all about Mr. Bagger -- until he became the most infamous man in Denmark two weeks later.

Ms. Lang doesn't have hard feelings because, unlike so many others, she didn't lose anything. "He didn't cheat me. I got my money."

here is the dialogue script:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122944722553110859.html
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Post by Shivani »

Madoff investor commits suicide in office
AP wrote: By ADAM GOLDMAN and TOM HAYS – 1 hour ago

NEW YORK (AP) — The founder of an investment fund that lost $1.4 billion with Bernard Madoff was discovered dead Tuesday after committing suicide at his Manhattan office, marking a grim turn in a scandal that has left investors around the world in financial ruin.

Rene-Thierry Magon de la Villehuchet, 65, was found sitting at his desk at about 8 a.m. with both wrists slashed, NYPD spokesman Paul Browne said. A box cutter was found on the floor along with a bottle of sleeping pills on his desk. No suicide note was found.

De la Villehuchet was one of several fund managers to be hit hard in Madoff's alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme. Investment funds that lost big to Madoff are also facing backlash and investor lawsuits for not protecting their clients from the alleged fraud.

It is not immediately known what kind of scrutiny de la Villehuchet was facing over his Madoff losses through his Access International Advisors, located on Madison Avenue a couple blocks from Rockefeller Center.

But on Monday night, he told cleaning crews in his building that he wanted them out of his office by 7 p.m. because he was going to be working late.

Workers returned Tuesday morning and found the door locked. He was later discovered dead at his desk, with a garbage can placed near his body to apparently catch the blood, Browne said.

De la Villehuchet (pronounced veel-ou-SHAY) was a prominent investor who came from a long line of aristocratic Frenchmen, with the Magon part of his name referring to one of France's most powerful families.

The Magon name is even listed on the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, a world-famous monument that was commissioned by Napoleon in 1806.

His fund enlisted intermediaries with links to the cream of Europe's high society to garner clients. Among them was Philippe Junot, a French businessman and friend who is the former husband of Princess Caroline of Monaco, and Prince Michel of Yugoslavia.

De la Villehuchet, the former chairman and CEO of Credit Lyonnais Securities USA, was also known as a keen sailor who regularly participated in regattas and was a member of the New York Yacht Club.

He lived in an affluent suburb in Westchester County with his wife, Claudine. They have no children. There was no answer Tuesday at the family's two-story house.

"He's irreproachable," said Bill Rapavy, who was Access International's chief operating officer before founding his own firm in 2007.

De la Villehuchet's death came as swindled investors began looking for ways to possibly recoup their losses. A handful of lawsuits have already been filed, all claiming that the hedge funds failed to properly vet Madoff and overlooked some red flags that could have steered them away.

Guy Gurney, a British photographer living in Connecticut, was friends with de la Villehuchet. The two often sailed together and competed in a regatta in France in November.

"He was a very honorable man," Gurney said. "He was extraordinarily generous. He was an aristocrat but not a snob. He was a real person. When he was sailing, he was one of the boys."

The two were supposed to have dinner last Friday but Gurney called the day before to cancel because of the weather. But during the call, de la Villehuchet revealed he had been ensnared in Madoff scandal. "He sounded very subdued," Gurney said.
Singha
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

he ran a 'funnel fund' or fund-of-funds that sent money from wealthy european clients of rothschild and UBS into the maddoff funds. similar to the one in greenwich CT that came in news recently.

well atleast he wasnt overtly a crook, though these country club/sailing types sure use their priviledge judiciously to gain "insider" access to big money ops.

the common man in america doesnt have a clue to the activities in this
rarefied world of long island, CT coast, southern NY, ..... its almost like a
separate species of humans sharing the same real estate.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Shivani »

Unemployment Filings Reach 26-Year High
The Washington Post wrote: By Annys Shin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, December 24, 2008


The number of people filing for unemployment benefits hit a 26-year high last week, as the deepening recession forced more employers to cut jobs.

First-time claims for unemployment rose 5.4 percent, to 586,000 for the week ending Dec. 20, the Labor Department reported this morning. The last time claims were that high was Nov. 27, 1982. The four-week moving average, which is a less volatile indicator, rose to 558,000 from 544,250, also a 26-year high.

Orders for durable goods, such as appliances and televisions, dropped 1 percent to $186.9 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau said today. It was the fourth consecutive monthly drop and a much smaller decline than the 8.4 drop in October, thanks largely to orders for defense-related goods. Excluding those, which can vary widely quarter to quarter, new orders decreased by 0.9 percent.

Prices fell 1.1 percent last month, compared with 0.5 percent, the Commerce Department reported today. Much of that was due to falling gasoline and food prices. When food and energy are excluded, prices were actually flat.

Consumer spending continued to decline in November, falling 0.6 percent, even as consumers benefited from falling gasoline prices and retailers attempted to lure them into stores with deep discounts in an effort to salvage the holiday shopping season.

Retailers may have succeeded to an extent. November's drop was smaller than the 1 percent drop in spending in October. But just as they did in October, consumers also kept a chunk of their savings at the pump in their pockets. Personal savings as a percentage of disposable income was 2.8 percent in November, compared with 2.4 in October.
vsudhir
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

Fiscal Insanity Virus contagion spreading to Canada, Sweden, Italy....

Hilariously funny piece. ROFLMAO rated. Sadly the subject matter is dead serious onlee.

Excerpt:
Oceans Of Unsold Cars

I talked about auto insanity in the US and an ocean of cars stacking up at the port of Long Beach in Fed Destined To Become World's Largest Auto Dealership.

A sneak peak across the sea shows Europe's Biggest Car Terminal Bursting at the Seams.
Europe's biggest car terminal is bursting at the seams as unsold cars pile up, mirroring the dramatic situation in the automobile industry.

More than 90,000 vehicles are clogging the shipping terminal in the north German port of Bremerhaven, waiting to find new owners. Detthold Aden, head of the BLG Logistics Group, which administers the facility said they can't move the cars, work on them or deliver them until they find buyers.

Japanese family cars compete for the few remaining spaces available with Korean sports utility vehicles, German sports cars, delivery vans and even combined harvesters and bulldozers.

When cars roll off ships like the Danube Highway or Morning Champion, they come to a halt after just a few meters because there is no room for them on land.
Every country wants to protect its auto industry. It's simply not going to happen.

If you are looking to buy a new car, I have a word of advice. Wait. Prices are going to crash.
IMVVHO, Worth a full read, folx.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Yogi_G »

vsudhir wrote:Fiscal Insanity Virus contagion spreading to Canada, Sweden, Italy....

Hilariously funny piece. ROFLMAO rated. Sadly the subject matter is dead serious onlee.

Excerpt:
Oceans Of Unsold Cars

I talked about auto insanity in the US and an ocean of cars stacking up at the port of Long Beach in Fed Destined To Become World's Largest Auto Dealership.

A sneak peak across the sea shows Europe's Biggest Car Terminal Bursting at the Seams.
Every country wants to protect its auto industry. It's simply not going to happen.

If you are looking to buy a new car, I have a word of advice. Wait. Prices are going to crash.
IMVVHO, Worth a full read, folx.
:mrgreen: It would be one helluva time to introduce the Nano...
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by darshan »

http://futurestorm.blogspot.com/2008/12 ... g-for.html

Comments are more interesting than blog.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by KarthikSan »

Yogi_G wrote: :mrgreen: It would be one helluva time to introduce the Nano...
I should respectfully disagree with you. All the patriotism and jingoism apart, the Nano is still a very basic auto for a mature market like the US or Europe. It might be great for people who upgrade from a two wheeler but for others it is still a step down. Plus the issue in the western markets now is not the price but the availability of credit. Even if TATA was going to sell the car for a USD1000 most Americans would need financing! From what I read about car sales the situation is somewhat similar in India if not as bad as the west. Talk about right place right time! Tough luck for TATA.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vina »

KarthikSan wrote:
Yogi_G wrote: :mrgreen: It would be one helluva time to introduce the Nano...
I should respectfully disagree with you. All the patriotism and jingoism apart, the Nano is still a very basic auto for a mature market like the US or Europe. It might be great for people who upgrade from a two wheeler but for others it is still a step down. Plus the issue in the western markets now is not the price but the availability of credit. Even if TATA was going to sell the car for a USD1000 most Americans would need financing! From what I read about car sales the situation is somewhat similar in India if not as bad as the west. Talk about right place right time! Tough luck for TATA.
I think the Nano will sell like hot cakes. Forget about talk about the 2 wheeler guy upgrading to the Nano. That is not going to be the major driver for now. The operating costs of a car is orders of magnitude higher than a 2 wheeler and most of those guys wont bite.

Who will jump into the Nano big time is the guys looking for a commute car/ 2nd car, 1st time car buyer. The guys looking for a small cheap no frills car and who have to to for the Alto by default. That is the market Nano will go after. I will definitely by the Nano if it gets around 25 km per liter (as it should from engine size and specs) , has A/C and has decent NVH (doesnt vibrate in your hands like a jack hammer) and use it for my daily commute and leave the bigger car at home.

And if all inclusive price of Nano is under 2 lakhs, many people wont need financing and can complete the deal with just cash.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by KarthikSan »

^^^ I agree with the target market and no financing. But the problem is psychological. Indians are not careless spenders even in good times. Now with the talk of the world economy tanking and potential layoffs, pay cuts etc in India they will just hoard their money under the mattress and wait it out. No question of the Nano selling like hot cakes but IMVVHO now is not the right time to introduce it.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Yogi_G »

KarthikSan wrote:
Yogi_G wrote: :mrgreen: It would be one helluva time to introduce the Nano...
I should respectfully disagree with you. All the patriotism and jingoism apart, the Nano is still a very basic auto for a mature market like the US or Europe. It might be great for people who upgrade from a two wheeler but for others it is still a step down. Plus the issue in the western markets now is not the price but the availability of credit. Even if TATA was going to sell the car for a USD1000 most Americans would need financing! From what I read about car sales the situation is somewhat similar in India if not as bad as the west. Talk about right place right time! Tough luck for TATA.
Karthik, Nano will definitely not be introduced in Europe, US immediately and my comment was more of being introduced at home given the world-wide credit crunch and the reception it would get....I am not sure about your USD1000 statement though, sell your current car and apart from buying you a 1000$ Nano you will also get some "cash back" 8)

BTW: The San in your name stands for the Japanese "Mister/Sir" right?
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by KarthikSan »

Yogi_G wrote:Karthik, Nano will definitely not be introduced in Europe, US immediately and my comment was more of being introduced at home given the world-wide credit crunch and the reception it would get....I am not sure about your USD1000 statement though, sell your current car and apart from buying you a 1000$ Nano you will also get some "cash back" 8)

BTW: The San in your name stands for the Japanese "Mister/Sir" right?
Understood. I brought the western markets into the debate because your previous comment was in context of the weakening car sales in the US and Europe.

"San" is the starting part of my last name, but I twisted it a little to get myself a little bit more respect :twisted:
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

everyone is after echandee these days :((
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by KarthikSan »

China makes yuan an international currency
The government wants to implement some aspects of this dream in a limited fashion. It has allowed businesses in certain regions of China to make payment settlements in Yuan instead of using a reference currency like the US dollar, with countries like Singapore.
With China holding $1.9 trillion in foreign exchange, it has been able to make the Yuan fairly acceptable in certain quarters.

I don't understand the currency markets very well. Does this imply that China can print their way out of settling their current account payments? Also the second statement about their USD reserves...does that mean they are using it as a gold standard type of deal? With the USD itself in doldrums how can China do this?


Off topic: What does echandee mean? Sounds like Mallu to me!
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Yogi_G »

KarthikSan wrote:China makes yuan an international currency
The government wants to implement some aspects of this dream in a limited fashion. It has allowed businesses in certain regions of China to make payment settlements in Yuan instead of using a reference currency like the US dollar, with countries like Singapore.
With China holding $1.9 trillion in foreign exchange, it has been able to make the Yuan fairly acceptable in certain quarters.

I don't understand the currency markets very well. Does this imply that China can print their way out of settling their current account payments? Also the second statement about their USD reserves...does that mean they are using it as a gold standard type of deal? With the USD itself in doldrums how can China do this?


Off topic: What does echandee mean? Sounds like Mallu to me!
Singhaji, you meant H&D (Honour and Dignity) right? :mrgreen:
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

OT on the Nano

whether aam aadmi bites or not, I feverishly hope the inglorious autorickshaws in our cities are replaced by the relatively cheaper and sleeker Nanos onlee!

In Italy, Mozarella makers are up in arms as the sarkar plans to bailout cheese makers only.

Spengler's latest in atimes is a rather solid read, IMO.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Vipul »

KarthikSan
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by KarthikSan »

The Worst Predictions About 2008
Here are some of the worst predictions that were made about 2008. Savor them—a crop like this doesn't come along every year.

1. "A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!" —Richard Band, editor, Profitable Investing Letter, Mar. 27, 2008

At the time of the prediction, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 12,300. By late December it was at 8,500.

2. AIG (AIG) "could have huge gains in the second quarter." —Bijan Moazami, analyst, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey, May 9, 2008

AIG wound up losing $5 billion in that quarter and $25 billion in the next. It was taken over in September by the U.S. government, which will spend or lend $150 billion to keep it afloat.

3. "I think this is a case where Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM) are fundamentally sound. They're not in danger of going under…I think they are in good shape going forward." —Barney Frank (D-Mass.), House Financial Services Committee chairman, July 14, 2008

Two months later, the government forced the mortgage giants into conservatorships and pledged to invest up to $100 billion in each.

4. "The market is in the process of correcting itself." —President George W. Bush, in a Mar. 14, 2008 speech

For the rest of the year, the market kept correcting…and correcting…and correcting.

5. "No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble." —Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator, Mar. 11, 2008

Five days later, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) took over Bear Stearns with government help, nearly wiping out shareholders.

6. "Existing-Home Sales to Trend Up in 2008" —Headline of a National Association of Realtors press release, Dec. 9, 2007

On Dec. 23, 2008, the group said November sales were running at an annual rate of 4.5 million—down 11% from a year earlier—in the worst housing slump since the Depression.

7. "I think you'll see [oil prices at] $150 a barrel by the end of the year" —T. Boone Pickens, June 20, 2008

Oil was then around $135 a barrel. By late December it was below $40.

8. "I expect there will be some failures. … I don't anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system." —Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, Feb. 28, 2008

In September, Washington Mutual became the largest financial institution in U.S. history to fail. Citigroup (C) needed an even bigger rescue in November.

9. "In today's regulatory environment, it's virtually impossible to violate rules." —Bernard Madoff, money manager, Oct. 20, 2007

About a year later, Madoff—who once headed the Nasdaq Stock Market—told investigators he had cost his investors $50 billion in an alleged Ponzi scheme.

10. A Bound Man: Why We Are Excited About Obama and Why He Can't Win, the title of a book by conservative commentator Shelby Steele, published on Dec. 4, 2007.

Mr. Steele, meet President-elect Barack Obama.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by KarthikSan »

The only problem is we don't have our ole friends Adolf, Benito and His Royal Highness of Japan to fight against. Heck we don't even have the Axis of Evil anymore. It is just Lil Kim and the guy with the funny name from Eye-Ran :rotfl:
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

yes Karthik San....br acronyms tend to morph over time.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

Tne coming surge in US municipal bankruptcies

Upto 36 predicted in the next 2 yrs. The collective bargaining sweetspot agreements unions wrested from city and town municipalities could all well go up in smoke.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

here is my prediction, Obama is going to preside over a 30% reduction in US std of living and vast decline in its coercive power and leverage worldwide. he
is not a messiah or a god's angel. large cutbacks in defence are inevitable to help balance out essential stuff like deficits in every bucket.

I think he is going to be a rather mediocre carterish president. the gushing mobs are going to be disappointed.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

Aah, ye spake too soon Singha saar.

Not if Niall Ferguson's propitious visions are true though....

x-posted.

If wishes could be horses...

An imaginary retrospective of 2009 (By Niall Ferguson in FT)

To summarize: Feel good ending onlee. The Made in America crisis hurts everybody else even more and so, US emerges as the one-eyed king of the blind. Also, the desperate deification of Obama is beyond amazing. Ferguson shows himself to be sub-ordinary. Sample this:
Meanwhile, al-Qaeda’s bungled attempt to assassinate Obama – on the eve of Thanksgiving – only served to discredit radical Islamism and to reinforce Obama’s public image as “The One”. Another of the many ironies of 2009 was that the mood of religious reawakening triggered by the economic crisis benefited the Democrats rather than the deeply divided Republicans.

By year end, it was possible for the first time to detect – rather than just to hope for – the beginning of the end of the Great Repression. The downward spiral in America’s real estate market and the banking system had finally been halted by radical steps that the administration had initially hesitated to take. At the same time, the far larger economic problems in the rest of the world had given Obama a unique opportunity to reassert American leadership, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.

The “unipolar moment” was over, no question. But power is a relative concept, as the president pointed out in his last press conference of the year: “They warned us that America was doomed to decline. And we certainly all got poorer this year. But they forgot that if everyone else declined even further, then America would still be out in front. After all, in the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king.”

And, with a wink, President Barack Obama wished the world a happy new year.
Read, sprinkle salt, and ensoi.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vina »

The global export bubble has burst . Yeah like any good economics expert, Stephen Roach,is good at explaining the past! :rotfl: :rotfl: . Germany is in deep trouble now, along with China.

What is Chipanda to do now if exports , esp to the US evaporate?

Germany Suffers as US buys less from China
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Suraj »

Chinese exports in November are down 3-5% y-o-y, and imports down 18% for the same month. For an economy built on relentless 20-25% export growth rate, that is quite catastrophic. They're going to be stuck with significant overinvestment in their port infrastructure for awhile, at places like Shanghai, Shenzhen/Yantian and Ningbo. This is rather ironic because underinvestment in port infrastructure has been a significant problem in India, and probably shaved ~$10 billion from our annual exports due to lack of port facilities, particularly for containerized freight.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

and many goods built on thin single digit margins.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by SwamyG »

Just a little peep back into history, Sean Turnell's paper:
THE CHETTIARS IN BURMA

His book{available @ books.google.com} "Fiery Dragons: Banks, Moneylenders and Microfinance in Burma" contains most of the material too.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Suraj »

Japan economy may shrink 12.1%
Gross domestic product in the three months ending tomorrow will fall at almost three times the 4.1 per cent rate previously predicted, said Kyohei Morita, chief Japan economist at Barclays in Tokyo, after reports last week showed industrial production and exports posted the biggest declines on record in November.

“Given the speed and the length of the contraction, this recession could be the most severe in the postwar era,” Morita said. “We expect negative growth will continue for a fifth straight quarter to the April-June period of 2009.”

Plunging sales of cars and electronics are forcing companies from Toyota Motor Corp to Panasonic Corp to idle plants and fire workers. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled a record 42 per cent this year, eclipsing a 39 per cent slide in 1990 that helped trigger a decade of economic stagnation and deflation.

A 12.1 per cent annualised contraction would be the steepest since the first quarter of 1974, when the oil shock caused the economy to shrink 13.1 per cent, according to Barclays.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by John Snow »

I had said the economic contraction has begun..
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

12.1% is brutal for a developed economy.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

WSJ - lenders could be forced to book a loss on foreclosed homes.
maybe more iffy lenders could land in bankruptcy themselves from this...

December 9, 2008, 7:06 pm

Home Builders Pull a 180, Lobby for Mortgage ‘Cram Downs’

Michael Corkery reports:

The National Association of Home Builders is breaking with its allies in the lending industry and calling for mortgage “cram downs” — the controversial measure being proposed in Congress that would allow bankruptcy judges to dramatically alter loan terms to stem foreclosures

“This is a 180 degree turn for us, and underscores the gravity of the situation,’’ said NAHB’s chief executive officer, Jerry Howard in an interview on Tuesday.

The builders’ trade group has long opposed cram downs because it has feared that they will lead to high mortgage rates as lenders seek to protect themselves against losses associated with the altered terms.

One cram down proposal that Congress is expected to consider early next year would allow bankruptcy judges to reduce the mortgage principal amount that a borrower owes to make the loan more affordable. The banking industry says it’s unfair that lenders should have to bear the losses.

Mr. Howard says the foreclosure situation has become so dire that the builder group – whose political committee is a big donor on Capitol Hill — decided last week to approach Senate leaders about its support for a temporary cram down provision. “We hope this will break the log jam on bankruptcy reform,’’ Mr. Howard says.

Francis Creighton, chief lobbyist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, which opposes the cram downs, declined comment on the NAHB’s move.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Najunamar »

Question to Gurulog,
Is there a threshold value for GDP contraction % beyond which traditional counter-cyclical (monetary and fiscal policies) measures simply won't work? Meaning, it will have to run its course like the famines of the past (bad analogy perhaps).
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by vsudhir »

More on social change forced by the home prices crisis.

Toxic homes and divorces
With nearly one in six homes worth less than the mortgage owed on it, according to Moody’s Economy.com, divorce lawyers and financial advisers around the country say the logistics of divorce have been turned around. “We used to fight about who gets to keep the house,” said Gary Nickelson, president of the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers. “Now we fight about who gets stuck with the dead cow.”
Meanwhile commercial real estate (CRE) is severely hit with some (formerly) big guns in the sector seeking (what else?) a fed bailout.

A wishlist for CRE

Office rents fall 25% plus in Manhattan

Meanwhile several more retailers looking to file for bankruptcy protection after a dismal dec'08 showing. The downfall coupled with the CRE trouble might even mean that suburban shopping mall model may be as good as dead.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Suraj »

Japan had/has few monetary levers, having spent years with a near zero interest rate policy. Even Fukui's attempts to raise interest rates durnig the peak of the boom, citing inflation, were scorned as being premature. Now they are stuck with close to 0 interest rates again, deflation and weak domestic demand thanks to a saving-driven culture borne out of the post-1989 bust period. They'll just have to painfully get rid of the excess capacity, which means a few quarters of negative growth.

For those who have bought cars in US and have known Toyota to never offer cashbacks/0% etc, the current 'Toyotathon of Toyotathons' must be quite a shock, but they are overleveraged with too much inventory. With buyers still not biting, it won't be long before they trumpet a 'Toyotathon to beat all other previous Toyotathon of Toyotathons' of something like that...
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Nandu »

Just an example of how ordinary people are losing trust in banks.

Old lady puts her life savings of $10,000 into a biscuit packet. Returns the packet to store by accident. Another family buys the packet and gets the money, but they inform the store, so old lady gets money back.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/box- ... told-money
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Nandu wrote:Just an example of how ordinary people are losing trust in banks.
Old lady puts her life savings of $10,000 into a biscuit packet. Returns the packet to store by accident. Another family buys the packet and gets the money, but they inform the store, so old lady gets money back.
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/box- ... told-money
Some imagination there. This is similar to the stories in Indian newspapers on IT job loses and how the husband never informed wife etc etc. Any edible stuff, especially when it is opened will be trashed when people return it to the store.

And the most absurd component of this story is that some numbnuts return the packet containing $10K with no strings attached whatsoever. I will bet my testimonials that this will never happen in the land of modern day vikings aka USA.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1230936 ... outset-box

really feel sorry for people like this woman. has nothing but still kind and generous enough to care for children of people in jail. the child support type payments are
probably her only means to survive.
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Re: GLOBAL ECONOMY

Post by Singha »

GMAC - the latest bailout

US offers $6bn bail-out for GMAC

The US Treasury has unveiled a $6bn (£4.1bn) rescue package for GMAC - General Motors' troubled car loan arm, co-owned by Chrysler's owner, Cerberus.

The move - to encourage GMAC to offer funding to would-be vehicle buyers - is the latest aimed at easing the severity of the economic downturn.

Earlier this month the White House agreed a $17.4bn bail-out GM, Chrysler and Ford to help stave off collapse.

GMAC recently gained approval to become a bank holding company.

This gave it access to emergency government funds offered to other financial institutions.
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