Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 12 Jan 2009 05:42

I would propose this as a package deal for the LTTE leadership. Everyone but the key two or three get a safe passage and harbor. The rest, must serve their time, the only pardon being that they will live. For this to happen, we must already have him in our sights. If not, there is much work to do.

This isn't a negotiation. This is a hand from his ethnic brethren for an end with dignity for the struggle he ended being the head of. That is the best way to ensure that the struggle can continue in as fair way as possible.

After the deal offered, if Prabhakaran isn't coming but takes off, people must be told that such a deal was offered in all sincerity. India must then track him down wherever he is, through a covert operation if necessary. In that process, if he ends up dead, sorry.

Thus the outer frontier is to pause SL, the forward sweep is to locate and grab him, the reverse sweep is to let SL claim victory. In the second iteration, we inform SL that issues have to be addressed and so on till things are smoothed via TN. SLcan then become part of the core.

JMT
S

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 12 Jan 2009 22:56

Some interesting ideas have come up so far, and I am trying to update current thinking, including my own.

(1) How far will the periphery develop new interconnections among themselves with respect to the core?

(a) China can dominate relations between peripheral countries. It has already gone forward in connecting Myanmar, BD,Thailand, Nepal, SL, TSP. The PRC presence in AFG is doubtful and a possible weak link in its strategy.
(b) There can be a smaller eastern bloc of regional interest - in BD, Myanmar, Thailand.
(c) The links as mediated by PRC could be hostile to the core. India can think of of building up ties and links in fields where PRC is weaker - such as in education and IT, or other soft enterprise, and health.
(d) both for the peripheral areas within the political boundaries of India, as well as outside, a policy of dependent economic development could be pursued. By this policy regions that do not consider themselves as core, or what the core itself does not now think of as belonging to the core - should be brought into mutually dependent growth with the core. NE and J&K is an internal example, where more could be done to specifically develop this dependence in growth (value addition to products for the larger market, etc.)
(e) The TSP+AFG area now is too volatile to think of economic links. Political boundaries and issues of control need to be sorted out before the dependent growth policy can be applied.
(f) TSP is another crucial link in peripheral connections that bypass and are hostile to the core. TSP's continued existence is a front for PRC to operate its mischief (not that PRC is the only player here). TSP's links to BD and Maldives is worrying. BD has been under the influence of Islamic consolidation for quite some time, although a recent landslide victory to Centre-Left coalitions is a possible opportunity for positive moves. BD' connections to TSP should be disrupted and its connections to PRC sought to be neutralized as far as possible.
(g) economic as well as cultural affinities can be used wherever possible to increease the importance of the Indic connections to the peripheral countries rather than to the ideological frameworks of TSP/BD or that of the PRC. Myanmar, Thailand, SL have strong Buddhist networks, and Nepal has an underlying Hindu psyche. These and other historical factors can be in out considerations.
(h) ideological attempts at connections between peripheral countries aimed at isolating India, will be through Islam and communism. Needed, a clear policy to deal with this. For Islam, TSP, AFG, BD, Maldives, parts of Myanmar and Thailand are potentials - and for communism, NEP, as well as parts within NE.

(2) How far will the core's existing strategic thinking need to change with respect to the periphery as a comprehensive unit?

(a) Samuelji's model of gradual information overload, propagation of information borders, until periphery becomes part of the core
(b) The common realization that some parts of the periphery problems have to be solved militarily - such as J&K+TSP, and maybe even some parts of NE.
(c) AKalamji's model of an Asian/South Asian union patterned on the EU
(d) There is some divergence of opinion about the future attitudes to the land now known as TSP. Some are not in favour of incorporation into the core, some are in favour, and some want to split it up and do partial absorptions only. This probably needs more discussion.
(e) SL's largest issue is PVK, for whom Samuelji has an excellent algorithm.
(f) there are ideological issues that needs to be addressed within the core, and a framewok for nationalism put in place, before attitudes towards issues with periphery can be taken up. There are very strong opposing opinions about the proposed basis of nationalism. This question is linked to (6) - Can a consistent policy for the entire periphery be developed with long term strategic goals not just for the internal territory of the current core but also for the entire periphery that leads to a sutainable setup? The answer appears to be yes. But I will try to summarize this thorny question later.

(3) What should India's strategic thinking be about the future of the area currently known as Pakistan?

We have spent some time discussing this, but not thrashed it out. The ideas appear to be
(a) allow TSP to implode (assuming it will implode). Do not incorporate in the core. Do not bother about what happens to the resulting fractions.
(b) allow TSP to implode, but allow AFG to redraw boundaries and incorporate parts of TSP.
(c) militarily isolate and incorporate POK, irrespective of TSP implosion or active dismemberment or status quo, do not bother with the rest of TSP.
(d) active dismemberment of TSP, and incorporation of the core areas of TSP into the Indian core. This has been only my suggestion so far, in absorbing Pakjab+Sind+POK, but leave Baloch as independent.

(4) How will (3) be related/affected/affecting the rest of the periphery?

Whatever we do in (3), will have an effect on the periphery.
(a) allowing implosion of TSP will invite PRC+Unkil responses, not in India's favour.
(b) imploded TSP with Pashtun absorption of parts of Pakjab or more, could bring Taleb or Jihadi reach closer to India's current borders, unless AFG shows signs of de-Talebanization.
(c) isolation of POK while TSP still exists, could leave the flank of IA exposed while IA tries to incorporate POK. PRC could intervene easily to distract attention to NE. If TSP itself is under threat, PRC will have to concentrate in the west.
(d) active dismemberment - costly and risky. But provides a longer lasting solution, in the face of Unkil vacillation and opportunism.
(e) allowing to implode could be used as propaganda against India, as India having generated the process. This would be the line in peripheral elite who want to paint India as imerialist. active dismemberment would provide the same excuses. Anything that goes against the TSP will be used as propaganda by Islamic or Leftist elements in the periphery. Whether we allow this to affect our policy is a differemt question.

(5) Is an Afghan front of war against terror opened by the core strategically necessary and beneficial when thinking in terms of the entire periphery and not just about Pakistan?

This is essentially related to (4). Opening an AFG front of war may not help TSP to implode. It can only be beneficial if active dismemberment is considered with incorporation. The implications need to be worked out and discussed. My view is that the three options proposed so far could be thought of comprehensively and not tbe rejected outright :

(a) opening an Afghan front (b) moving in from the south of TSP (c) covert ops and bleeding by a thousand cuts. Any move in this direction brings in an important periphery - PRC. Also other peripheral countries need to be assured that this is a special case - that of TSP. BD, or Myanmar or NEP, or Bhutan or SL need not fear an invasions and incorporation as long as they do not follow the TSP route with regards to violence towards India.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 12 Jan 2009 23:01

http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=SbnhCFpYCJI

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jan 2009 02:36

Who is PVK? Thanks, ramana

I think you have the basis for a good essay or study for SRR.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 13 Jan 2009 03:26

Ramanaji,
I shortened Prabhakaran to PVK. Because Samuelji seemed to understand, I thought it was common. Do I need to put it in the acronym list?

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 13 Jan 2009 03:52

(1) How far will the periphery develop new interconnections among themselves with respect to the core?

If we look, again, at the interconnections between various components of the South Asian Geostrategic Dynamical System,
we can produce predictions of growth or decay of links among the nodes and come up with provably good or nearly optimal
control strategies. If we can have ecological models, environmental models, games and so on, there is no reason why BRF cannot
create a family of geostrategic dynamical models that are simulated from various initial conditions to predict and, given
desired outcomes, calculate optimal trajectories to it, factoring uncertainty. This can be put on a very solid foundation.

Here, in the context of this question, we can ask variations?
a. How much interconnection can be tolerated between the periphery so there is no threat of marginalization of the core?
b. Does interconnection among the periphery help the core?
c. What will happen given our initial conditions and steady state policies of today (such as the graph I put up earlier)?

So, to take these one at a time,
a) Using an example of three nodes, L-M-R look at the triangle LMR to figure out what link structure will not threaten the core M.
This means that if I assign bits to nodes L, M and R - a 1 or -1, and start from a random initial configuration, then we can ask
the question, what should the weights between LM, LR and MR be so that the answer is always X_M X_M X_M, where X_M is the value
assigned to M initially. We can relax this problem and let X_M be a real variable and require that X_L X_M X_R be such that |X_L - X_M|, |X_R - X_M| < eps, a small value.
This is not a difficult problem and similar one can be asked of a larger network (>>3).

b. Sometimes, it is useful for interconnections to be formed between the periphery, so that the core has to do less work managing it. If the sign of correlation between
all nodes in the "ecosystem" is positive, then, without loss of generality, we can invoke the hammersley-clifford theorem (actually a more constrained version of it is being invoked here) to note that pair wise interactions can be re-arranged as a markov chain and thus form the basis for a hierarchy. The core talks to 1, who talks to 2 and so on. Such a hierarchy can be very stable, especially if the relative strengths of the nodes go as a "power law."
If we assume that there are N nodes, ordered as a hierarchy from 1-N, we can say that W(i)> sum(j=i+1:N) W(j), for i =1:N-1. India>Sri Lanka>Pakistan>Burma>BD>Nepal>Bhutan, for example.

c. This requires us to develop some models that I will be happy to work with someone on.

In summary, quantitative analysis using categorical or continuous factors assigned to relate nation states can be very useful in fleshing out the broad outlines of a strategy that can then be made robust by quick thinking nationalists.

S

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 13 Jan 2009 03:52

brihaspati wrote:Ramanaji,
I shortened Prabhakaran to PVK. Because Samuelji seemed to understand, I thought it was common. Do I need to put it in the acronym list?

I had no idea what PVK was, but there was only one "character" and enough bits were common!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jan 2009 04:08

The guy's name is Vellupalli Prabhakaran or VP. So PVK is not there.

Samuel, Before you get into set theory morass, a little history is needed to understand the periphery angst.

You know the Islamist connection for TSP and Bangla Desh. however SL, Nepal, Bhutan and Myanmar are driven by the fear of assimilation in greater India. Its besides the point that these areas were part of the greater abroad of classical India. Since then they have developed separate indentities and value that. they see no benefit in losing that. The UK and US stoked those fears of assimilation to perpetuate the separateness. And everytime any half-informed INC leader talked about ancient Indian ties to SE Asia etc these periphery countries hugged the West more tightly.

In the 60s SL and TSP used to talk of peripheral ties and were encouraged by Anglo-Saxon Western powers. That is what Mrs G sough to undo and did. In fact Colombo allowed TSP troop flights to stage thru their land despite the atrocities in East Pakistan.

So Indian interest is that the peripehry tie up with core and not themselves as a ring of containment. So Indian policy should be that which encourages and incentivises their ties to India.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 13 Jan 2009 04:51

I would agree with Ramanaji's assessment. Direct connections to the core will encourage stability on the long run, and should be convincingly argued with the periphery as something that benefits them more than a separate peripheral ring connection.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 13 Jan 2009 04:59

There is no contradiction to what I said if sometimes is read as sometimes in point b.

This is because, information flows via the most efficient paths. If one wishes to prevent marginalization of the core, the best approach is to break it up between the periphery and allow no links. This is a rather forceful solution, and also not sustainable in the long run because it takes a lot of work. In the long run, we wish the system to be a well-connected network where nodes can sustain each other whilst maintaining order. So, I said, sometimes there are more efficient solutions. This is especially when the periphery has already been subject to some initial assimilation, that is when the "sign of correlation turns positive," which is the signal that periphery can make links. But we have a long way to go before "the sign turns positive." Once we do that, as the core expands, we don't want our work to grow exponentially (as N! for N periperhal nodes). You want the ecosystem to be efficient and distribute responsibility and labour through it (this will turn out to be important later when I talk of stability of the system) and for this we need a better system than a M-way tree. Binarizing it (or M is small) or creating more fully connected network with certain constraints (that uphold the power law) is useful.

S

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 13 Jan 2009 17:30

This is a request for consideration by admin: is it better to start a separate area/thread/ for explicitly dealing with mathematical modeling of conflicts/strategic scenarios? Samuelji has been presenting some profound ideas, but are probably too technical for the taste of many (my personal opinion, I could be wrong), and I confess that I have probably contributed to this discomfort in my talk of game theory. I guess there is some interest but from a small subgroup about this, like Shivji, Samuelji, Kasthuriji, and I. I have already been green-manned once about proliferating threads - so I do not want to start this myself.

Any suggestions?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 13 Jan 2009 19:30

brihaspati wrote:This is a request for consideration by admin: is it better to start a separate area/thread/ for explicitly dealing with mathematical modeling of conflicts/strategic scenarios? Samuelji has been presenting some profound ideas, but are probably too technical for the taste of many (my personal opinion, I could be wrong), and I confess that I have probably contributed to this discomfort in my talk of game theory. I guess there is some interest but from a small subgroup about this, like Shivji, Samuelji, Kasthuriji, and I. I have already been green-manned once about proliferating threads - so I do not want to start this myself. Any suggestions?

Funny you should say this. I am no game theorist but I have been spending the last week or so brushing up the only computer language I know (Basic

) and have written two programs to validate some Hawk-Dove or Prisoner's dilemma scenarios for gaming Islam.

In fact I was contemplating emailing Samuel. My code seems to be right but my logic may be faulty. It is still fun to see the computer do 1 million iterations in a couple of seconds and throw out a score. I am still working...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jan 2009 22:40

Funny. I was going to ask samuel to host/start a math model thread to ensure the ideas are captured.

So samuelji can you do the honors?

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 13 Jan 2009 23:04

OK, strange, maybe, cuz I think it is time to do that, too.

Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent.
?
I'd like to think through and pull posts from various threads to kick things off. Standby.

S
PS:Sure, please feel free to email. Shiv, may be you can try a program called Octave, which is easily available on Linux, but on Windows too. It can help with a lot of numerical programming and is free.

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 13 Jan 2009 23:27

I think its a wonderful idea to mathematically model strategics with reference to India. I don't know if there is a log of such things already - Samuelji, throw us some light on this. When it comes to mathematical modeling, I see it can range from solving PDE's to mining the data available in the public. So, I guess the first thing could be on what approaches to consider. As far as the tools are concerned, I have plenty of access to them - from Matlab to SAS, Clementine and several other stuffs apart from the custom programming that I can engage in. Let the ideas flow!

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 13 Jan 2009 23:27

samuel wrote:OK, strange, maybe, cuz I think it is time to do that, too.

Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent.
?
I'd like to think through and pull posts from various threads to kick things off. Standby.

S
PS:Sure, please feel free to email. Shiv, may be you can try a program called Octave, which is easily available on Linux, but on Windows too. It can help with a lot of numerical programming and is free.

I think its a good title to start on.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Jan 2009 23:36

Samuelji, there is program to model world dynamics at Uty of Denver and is hosted by Prof Barry Hughes. The file is about 500mb and creates an exe file. It can be used to simulate cross disciplinary actions.

Link to IFs (International Futures)

http://www.ifs.du.edu/introduction/ifs.aspx

What is IFs?

http://www.ifs.du.edu/introduction/index.aspx

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 13 Jan 2009 23:44

Along the statistical analysis front, it would be quite simple to do a cluster analysis (simple K-means or Fuzzy k-means) to see which countries are closer to each other. But we have to come up with the parameters that can evaluate the closeness relationship. Those parameters can also be used for the stochastic modeling that samuelji was talking about. There should also be a consensus on a reliable data pool.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 14 Jan 2009 00:29

All sounds great.

The fundamental aspects of what we want to model can be related via a simple analysis and let me try to describe that.

At some level, one can abstract strategy layered on policy or behavior, in the space of iterations of plys of moves one layered on the other, with or without an external disturbance. Such games are usually discrete, though there is no reason why we must not consider continuous stochastic systems too. So one aspect of this thread is Games.

At another level, one has to develop a forward model of what happens to a system when it is free of control inputs from anywhere. That is left to its own devices what will it do. In a related fashion, we want to understand what the reponse of a system would be to a certain kind of input and so on, and this will be covered as Dynamics.

At a third level, we have to understand what the nature of relationships between various elements are, how to quantify that relationship over a set of such elements. We will call this the information topology. Information topology can be established statistically, that is using, unsupervised or supervised inference from data, or it can be established functionally, for example the famous GLM of statistics or regression trees comes to mind.

At a fourth level, we need to understand what attributes we use to establish the information topology and how we compare features associated with different nations or elements. We will call this information representation, which includes both the features and measures to compare them.

So, the goal, one goal, is to develop the appropriate information representation, information topology, and the dynamics of that topology within the context of conceived strategy or set of strategies that leads to a game, whose outcome we care about.

There are a variety of underlying "subjects:" Dynamical Systems, Controls, Statistical Inference, Information Theory, Games, Simulation and Modeling that can be covered. But as with all things useful, it is best to learn on the fly and become an apprentice to the process.

Thanks very much Ramana for the link. I'll start simulations with it on our cluster and see what comes off that. Thanks very much for pointing some ways forward Kasthuri. clustering will be very useful.

Wow, this could be a lot of fun.
S

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 Jan 2009 00:36

May I suggest a modification "mathematical modeling of Indian strategic processes".

This will explicitly state that the thread is for mathematical models - since word/narrative models are quite numerous too. Widening the scope from dynamic models only, means we can also deal with static models which are useful in analyzing a lot of socio-economic and political phenomena. It may also be important to remember, that so far all mathematical models have lagged far behind reality - because human behaviour is not really predictable. Kasthuriji appears to have interests/expertise in statistics, so it may be possible to carry on empirical modeling and cross validation. What Samuelji produces as predictions could be tested out on situations for which we have data, so that he can fine-tune his models.

I am guessing the following broad methods

*dynamical systems (PDE based)
*networks (dynamic/Bayesian/stochastic/social/Markov)
*Hidden Markov models
*time series
*game theoretic models
*pattern recognition and classification (statistical or other forms/clustering/)

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 14 Jan 2009 00:51

brihaspati wrote:*dynamical systems (PDE based)
*networks (dynamic/Bayesian/stochastic/social/Markov)
*Hidden Markov models
*time series
*game theoretic models
*pattern recognition and classification (statistical or other forms/clustering/)

Let me suggest a slight modification.

1. Stochastic Processes (includes pde but also DEDS, HMM, AR etc).
2. Game Theory (includes differential and stochastic games).
3. Pattern Analysis (includes statistical pattern recognition).
4. Inference from Data and Models (includes estimation, control and optimization).

Welcome to the department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at BR University. If you master these, you can get a job as an educated soothsayer!

S

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 14 Jan 2009 01:01

One more scenario - check it after 3:40 min

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qXZGMZKpGNY

This is the long term focus of the current situation in the sub continent.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 Jan 2009 01:02

Welcome to the department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics at BR University. If you master these, you can get a job as an educated soothsayer!

You are already scaring me! I already have had enough of those topics for one life - you don't want me to lose any enjoyment that I still have churning all four - 5 days a week!

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 Jan 2009 01:19

http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qXZGMZKpGNY
This is the long term focus of the current situation in the sub continent.

An army (if that is the real source), that needs to put up such a vid is in desperation indeed. Give us about 7-10 years. At least 5 years will be needed to clean up the political act. But once that is over, its countdown for TSPA. We will not shout or dance or swell the veins in our forehead. We will simply do what is necessary. We will dissove TSP, whatever be the cost. Even if the cost is extreme collateral damage, or the cost of our conscience, and the cost of having to probably accept behaving reciprocally to methods mentioned in the core texts of TSP theologians. If it means large scale liquidation in TSP, so be it. But we will finish this problem once for all. For to us, TSP is nothing but an irritating, profoundly destructive pest.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 Jan 2009 03:28

Brought this up in the TSP thread: just reposting here again for ideas, discussions and suggestions.

The Taleban, Pakiban, and Jihadis of all shades and colours in the region of TSP are essentially land locked. A crucial thing that sustains them is the supply of arms and ammunition. Can India think of obstructing these sources as much as possible?

*They can be supplied through Jihadi-Jihadi connections operating across borders from Iran, CAR, by Iran, CAR, or independent Russian suppliers (either trying to make money, or as part of a grander covert state policy to destabilize the region and bleed Unkil)
* through and by PRC, via CAR or through the Karakorum highway.
* from Pakistan itself, which in turn is supplied by Unkil and a host of other countries.
* is Indian territory itself a possible source - through MNCG (multi-national-crminal-gangs) like the D-company "originally of Mumbai" ?

Can India formulate a policy of destruction/sabotage of arms supplies to the area, not priorly notified by Unkil or NATO? A crucial supply area can be the sea-board into Pakistan. This is a very old trade route - and shipping expertise in these waters are quite old and traditional in the coastal areas. Indian navy could use the opportunity. Penetration of Balochistan could also be a crucial factor - as this is an excellent supply route for anyone who wants to fight in the Afghan arena. The Balochis themsleves could be involved in the arms trade and transport out of necessity - in generating resources for their own fight, or as part of supporting the enemy of the enemy who will draw away the PA to the north.

A doctrine of covert or otherwise, intervention in arms supplies and movements all around the core and in the periphery can be put forward as a "terror prevention policy".

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Jan 2009 08:59

samuel wrote:OK, strange, maybe, cuz I think it is time to do that, too.

Modeling Geostrategic Dynamics for the Indian Subcontinent.
?
I'd like to think through and pull posts from various threads to kick things off. Standby.

S
PS:Sure, please feel free to email. Shiv, may be you can try a program called Octave, which is easily available on Linux, but on Windows too. It can help with a lot of numerical programming and is free.

Thanks. Will get Octave

I normally work on Linux and had originally intended to teach myself Python. But since things were not moving I booted into Windows and reinstalled QBasic.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Jan 2009 09:16

shiv wrote:
Thanks. Will get Octave

Yikes!

Got it but looks like a new language for me to learn

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 14 Jan 2009 09:32

Sorry, forgot to mention that.
Try this site:
http://www.socdynamics.org/id4.html
It may have some examples to get started. But because so much of games is linear programming (but not always), octave (pr matlab, not free, mostly compatible) is a good bet.

S

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Jan 2009 09:55

samuel wrote:Sorry, forgot to mention that.
Try this site:
http://www.socdynamics.org/id4.html
It may have some examples to get started. But because so much of games is linear programming (but not always), octave (pr matlab, not free, mostly compatible) is a good bet.

S

Actually this link may be more useful to me in an oblique fashion. I will have to read up on existing models before I apply code to my own models primarily to avoid GIGO but (I am hoping) to avoid re inventing the wheel.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 14 Jan 2009 10:17

I didn't know where to post but a thought occured that if implemented will have deep (I believe positive) impact on Indian subcontinent.

We need to move our capital from New Delhi. Just that place is infested with grossly rude, arrogant, pompous, incompetent people. Further and importantly, its closeness to the monirity fringes from Punjab, J&K, UP so heavily influence the place, that no meaningful governance is possible from that hell.

New Delhi can justify to be the capital of India only if Afghanistan, Pakistanm, Nepal, and Tibet are part of India providing a balanced view of the subcontinent for fair governance purposes.

I believe a slow shift of capital, at least on a temporary or cyclic basis, to the hinterlands upto Indore, Bhopal, Nagpur or even Hyderabad is better. At least we will stop providing food to the bacteria.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 Jan 2009 19:29

We need to move our capital from New Delhi.

Yes I think did mention this once before! glad to see another one thinking same. Actually Delhi made sense in undivided India, not anymore. Also from a security point of view, capital should be as far as possible from hostile neighbours subject to admin/communication capabilities. Under current and immediate future scenario, a more "central/southern" location should be preferable. Just beware that many may green-man you citing Muhammad bin Tughlaq. But his domain was really centred in the northern plains, so it was not optimum to move.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 14 Jan 2009 21:09

brihaspati wrote:
We need to move our capital from New Delhi.
Yes I think did mention this once before! glad to see another one thinking same. Actually Delhi made sense in undivided India, not anymore. Also from a security point of view, capital should be as far as possible from hostile neighbours subject to admin/communication capabilities. Under current and immediate future scenario, a more "central/southern" location should be preferable. Just beware that many may green-man you citing Muhammad bin Tughlaq. But his domain was really centred in the northern plains, so it was not optimum to move.

I am not sure we should move our capital based on hostile neighbours. How far can we run from ballistic missiles?

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 14 Jan 2009 22:11

well some countries do adopt the practice of multiple capitals, or distributed "capitaling" if you might say so. This makes sense that not most nerve centres of political/military control are wiped off in a single attack. There are also indirect regional development concepts involved (capitals make for lots of extra investments!

) Agreed, that missilles make it somewhat pointless - but alternative centres of admin capable of moving control from Delhi in the shortest possible time, do not exist. Which I feel is not a very strong point of strategic thinking.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 15 Jan 2009 07:18

If there is hope, it lies in the proles.

The Naxals of today are our best bet for changing anything throughout the length and breadth of the country, because they've already conquered the one biggest impediment to change that shackles the rest of us... inertia. Inertia that is reinforced with each succeeding moment of inaction by the all-embracing temptation of the status quo.

I had talked earlier about the Iranian parallel. Indian Naxals (and proto-Naxals) throughout the country could be made to rally to the Hindu symbology of their ancestors, if such symbology was correctly presented. Shorn of its divisive connotations, as Brihaspatiji has also suggested, such symbology could be pared down to a Luther-esque essence which inspires a call to action at the most universal level of appeal. A Ramakrishna Mission (or Arya Samaj even) that is more about moving, doing and resolving the issues of today than pondering reams of intellectual scholarship. The Vedas are important, but the malaria afflicting your village in the monsoon is equally important. Respect the Vedas and drain the swamp, because the Vedas and the swamp both belong to you.

The RSS once sought to be this, almost, but succumbed to its own institutional paralysis, comatose with the narcolepsy of the status quo. I'm sure there are exceptions, particularly in the ranks of its young social workers. As an institution though, it is very much in need of a bucketful of transfusions.

After all, what makes a Naxal? Two things... their own energy and level of discontentment with the way things are, and a philosophy that is presented to them in appealing terms. The boys who turn to Naxalism now are cut from the same khadi cloth as grass-roots Congress workers in the time of Gandhiji. Today the Marxists have been first off the tee at presenting their message to these young people in terms they can understand and relate to, by demonstrating the significance of their ideas in terms of actions they can perform.

The Iranian example shows that switching the Marxist ideal in favour of something else, especially something with a lot more civilizational heft, is very much possible (and in a much shorter time than creating a social movement from scratch).

Ultimately, the opportunity for action has to be its own motivator, and engender the will to act. You can't motivate Manipuris, Coorgis and Gujjars merely by presenting them with the same "ideals" (definitely not ideals of the "quality" that we elites discuss on Bharat Rakshak).
You can have all the think-tanks in the world generating concepts day in and day out, but unless someone takes the milling crores in hand and shows them what to do, no amount of theorizing is going to make any difference.

On the other hand, if you have the same patterns of activism centered around the same core indic values (strip them of anything that proclaims loud religiosity, of all but the most essential spiritual aspects if we must)... and organize cadres around something similar to an "Arbeitsdienst" model, performing work that specifically addresses local problems while emphasizing a very simple commonality of motivation... then we're laying down, in biological terms, a stromal connective tissue matrix that holds together the various cultural parenchyma of our organism. And we're making sure that every cell of that matrix displays the same major histocompatibility complex

We cannot impel the far-flung provinces to integrate with the core, solely by imposing policies from above the system. If local politics (and economics) dictate that maintaining a certain distance is preferred, the people of the periphery will maintain that distance. If such a situation is allowed to become the status quo, there eventually develops a greater incentive to maintain that distance in perpetuity, and no amount of policy making will change this because the apparatus of policy enactment has itself been subverted to the interest of preserving the status quo. Years and decades ago.

A simultaneous grass-roots movement to effect much-needed local change while carrying with it the aura of a national mission, encouraging integration by example, is at least as necessary if we're to undo the prevailing sclerosis.

Punah nayaa nirman karo...

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 15 Jan 2009 20:26

Rudradevji,
I am sure you realize what you are saying amounts to doing what

There is a lot of limitation as to what we can say here, but I would restrict myself only to this : the Irannian case is slightly different from India in the sense that there was very little opposition religion-wise to the theocracy - for this particular religion had ensured in the well-suppressed history that no effective ideological fractures remained, if necessary by physical elimination. The non-this-faith ideas trickled in during British colonial overlordship and foreign exposure. USSR proximity helped. However, there were no large-scale major disruptions in the base of support for this faith. The Marxists did never manage to go beyond the educated urban elite. In the Indian context, the major faith is fractured, strongly opposed by other faith interests as backed up by colonial/neo-colonial/post-colonial interests. For the major group to assimilate the Naxalites, the major group itself has to reform and consolidate. Its primary reform has to be in how it views and represents social hierarchy. Its not very difficult to do in fact - and the very symbolism or concepts used to justifuy remnant anachronistic social forms can be inverted to justify the opposite. The question is does the majority faith has that political and philosophical will to do so? If it doesn't then it will not be able to provide the framework to absorb ex-Naxals.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 16 Jan 2009 02:07

brihaspati wrote:Rudradevji,
I am sure you realize what you are saying amounts to doing what

Hmmm... Hindu protestantism?

If I've said anything more than that, well then it is quite securely concealed among the musty arcana of this particular thread.

There is a lot of limitation as to what we can say here, but I would restrict myself only to this : the Irannian case is slightly different from India in the sense that there was very little opposition religion-wise to the theocracy - for this particular religion had ensured in the well-suppressed history that no effective ideological fractures remained, if necessary by physical elimination.

No doubt, the mechanisms of survival of Iran's predominant faith differ entirely (in philosophical approach and techniques of implementation) from that of India's predominant faith... but Brihaspatiji, at the grass roots level, can one deny that India is at least as much Hindu as Iran is Muslim?

For all the suppression and physical elimination, two things about Iranian Islam should be noted. One, Islam didn't quite account for national symbology all by itself all the way up to 1979. Reza Pehlavi relied heavily on the mythology of the divine right of Persian emperors, Ariana, etc. to justify his despotism. Had he actually had some royal blood, instead of being the son of a mid-level army officer boosted by a British coup, that mythology might even have helped him. There are pre-Islamic symbols that resonate even in Iran.

Two, when a religion establishes itself through rigorous dig-vijaya as Islam has in Iran among other places, any glaring incompletion of dig-vijaya becomes a huge liability to that religion's claim of divine sanction. The Ayatollahs of Iran have no site within their borders more significant to the Shia religion than Qom. The holiest of their sites (such things really matter in a dig-vijay type religion) are not even within the borders these Ayatollahs control... they are in in southern Iraq. What's worse, the Ayatollahs actually tried to use their self-styled religious sanction to effect territorial changes, and failed... I'm talking about Operations Karbala 1, 2, 3, 4...n throughout the 1980s, when try as they might, the Iraqi Shia did not aid them by rebelling against Saddam. This is a major jhaapad to the pretensions of "divine sanction" of a faith that puts so much popular stock in the accomplishment of digvijaya.

Hinduism in India has survived its challenges through accomodation, the philosophical quarantine of our masses that we received in exchange for our dhimmitude or servitude to conquering foreign faiths. It survived, and is all pervasive even today, precisely because its survival did not put ANY stock in the achievement of dig-vijaya. Ultimately that is what enhances its durability among the Indian people, even compared to Islam in Iran. The relative disadvantage, of course, is that it doesn't lend itself *as readily* to incorporation with the propulsion mechanism of a cut-and-dried political philosophy... as you correctly indicate.

The non-this-faith ideas trickled in during British colonial overlordship and foreign exposure. USSR proximity helped. However, there were no large-scale major disruptions in the base of support for this faith. The Marxists did never manage to go beyond the educated urban elite.

This is true. Hinduism is catholic compared to Islam, and Marx-vadi has enjoyed as much of a free rein in our open marketplace of ideas as any philosophy. Yet, we see that it has not struck roots among the masses... beyond motivating sections of people desperate enough and energetic enough to want change, chiefly for lack of anything better in its stead.

There are gaping social lacunae in Indian Marxism as it exists today. There are the Maoist activists of the hinterland on one extreme, and the cantankerous politburo Bhadralok on the other extreme; and practically nothing in between. In the unfortunate Communist-ruled states of WB and Kerala, the "ones in between" are brought in line with the same mixture of bribery, coercion and inertial temptation as the people of any other state by any other party.

I would say that there is only one real "major disruption" in the contiguity of the majority religion's appeal among the people of India... the one that caused partition in 1947. Other than that there are challenges to a constantly swirling, convecting, motile social order within the parameters of the majority faith... but the faith itself transcends all of them, and contains all of them, in terms of a multitude of symbols, values, traditions and characteristics at the micro level that are seen in every corner of the country.

A cultural revolution that, unlike Mao's, turned in the right direction... might well present an opportunity for the masses to rally around these universally identifiable commonalities.

The Muslim may look at the social flux of Dravidian revanchism, Dalit activism, Mandalism and so on and see "weakness" or "disunity" (the Pakis, actually, see exactly this). That is because HIS system would have been weakened by any challenge to its ridigity... that is the basic principle of its design. In our system, survival is guaranteed and expansion driven by fluidity, by pluripotency. One might argue that it is this civilizational will to fluidity, rather than any specific appeal of "Marxism", that keeps the proto-Naxals roiling and hungering to effect change against any ossified status-quo.

Eventually, however... should the experiment begin to visibly succeed, and its driving principles remain as inclusive as the religion of his ancestors has always been... perhaps even the Indian Muslim will be moved to join in a program of action that offers betterment to all who participate, preferring that to a status quo of self-imposed exclusion which has earned him only disadvantaged isolation.

In the Indian context, the major faith is fractured, strongly opposed by other faith interests as backed up by colonial/neo-colonial/post-colonial interests. For the major group to assimilate the Naxalites, the major group itself has to reform and consolidate. Its primary reform has to be in how it views and represents social hierarchy. Its not very difficult to do in fact - and the very symbolism or concepts used to justifuy remnant anachronistic social forms can be inverted to justify the opposite. The question is does the majority faith has that political and philosophical will to do so? If it doesn't then it will not be able to provide the framework to absorb ex-Naxals.

I tend to see the "faith" (meaning the majority faith in India) as a deaf, dumb and blind whale. It has great energy and enormous momentum, but follows along the currents of history as it perceives them, without an inherent discipline or social order. It, therefore, cannot be counted on to have the will to do anything.

THAT is why it cannot be reformed by papal bulls or fatwas or other such edicts from an overarching authority. There IS no overarching authority.

There is, however, example. Starting with one, two, a hundred, ten thousand... those who go to the villages and towns empowering their inhabitants to change the status quo that ails them, reinforcing the injured esteem in which the masses hold the civilization of their ancestors, will wield the levers of a hydraulic sort of change that could span the length and breadth of India.

You are absolutely right in that "Its not very difficult to do in fact - and the very symbolism or concepts used to justifuy remnant anachronistic social forms can be inverted to justify the opposite". In this sense the majority faith in India, which by definition is antithetical to dogma and open to interpretation, has even an advantage with respect to the book-bound one in Iran.

Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 16 Jan 2009 02:45

Don't have much to add, Rudradev. Great analysis.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 16 Jan 2009 03:33

Rudradevji,
I think we both converge to more or less the same strategy, probably from two slightly different viewpoints. I come to this as a strategic necessity from a pragmatic viewpoint. I may be wrong, but I feel you arrive at it from a sense of "proximity" and belonging.

I have given my arguments before also, and I think even after justifying it from a pragmatic point, there were suspicions of "Hindutva". My argument is that of finding a cultural basis that is in close proximity to the majority of the people, and sufficiently liberal, to allow modernization and reform. A minimal set of reforms on such a cultural basis, will create the least disruption. Such a modified framework is an important basis for unification and consolidation, and one of the preconditions for all the national ambitions we are talking about.

The "Digvijay" concept does not seem to be entirely alien to the Indic stream though. Mahabharatam, and even the Maurya Ashoka, does seem to be essentially talking about the same thing - consolidation of a "realm" under a single, just, social framework, and going to "war" if necessary to establish it. We see that Ashoka did not restrict himself or his ideals only to his "core" - the north-east-central India.The greatest fear, and anxiety that hampers this process now, is a false assumption that regeneration and consolidation of the "majority" culture means bringing back "older social forms" (of which we do not have concrete idea either, only textual claims - similar to those which historians in general claim to be "exaggaration for glorification" for narratives from all other "cultures"). But history can never go back, and there should not be any fear about this reform process. It can be reformed to the extent that even the periphery will have no problems in fitting in. A lot of our strategic problems will get easier if this can be achieved.

For those worried about "Hindutva", I would just like to say, that the crucial reform I have in mind is about overturning social hierarchies claimed to be in place by birth. This is not restricted to the majority faith - caste divsions and social hierarchies exist evn in the second largest community within India. Since the other faiths have failed too in eradicating this fundamental cancer, it is not a blight of the majority faith alone. And I have solid arguments and reasons to think that it is the majoirty faith which has all the tools needed to invert this divisive feature in Indian society to turn it around into a just and unifying social order. If anyone culture can achieve this, it is the "majority" one - for even more explicitly shouting "egalitarian" cultures have failed. I am simply proposing this set of available tools - not proposing any "Hindutva". Moreover, as far as I know, these tools are not in the public toolbox of so-called "Hindutva" forces.

As for Naxals, I do agree with Rudradevji, for I have seen many ex-Naxals become "faithful" when they settle down or get "older". But it will be easier if the perception of distance from the "culture to be adopted" decreases. In case of Naxals, this at least means removal of "social hierarchies" by birth, among other factors.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 16 Jan 2009 04:00

Rudradevji, and for all others who might be able to throw some light on this : there was a Pakistani communist party, which has split recently. There was a nascent "workers-peasant" movement, which also split I think. It may be quite crucial to understand so-called "class" divisions within TSP for future strategy. Different areas within TSP have different dynamics, and I know that a lot of feudal-semi-feudal type of tension exists. But depending on land relations, there could be latent forces that we can use later for strategic purposes - I am thinking along the lines of US reform of land relations in Japan under occupation to break the backbone of the older samurai/aristocracy.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 16 Jan 2009 22:40

wandering in the other threads, I am rather worried that there is a certain school of thought that hopes that within the TSP there are divisions, subnationalisms or otherwise - which can modify TSP behaviour or policy towards the Indian core. This is the same hope that thinks that more democracy in peripheral countries like TSP would reduce these country's belligerance towards India. I think this is a superficial reading, and is more driven by our hopes and wishes. While exploring constructions of identity from a theorteical viewpoint I had long come to the conclusion that identities are constructed within the constraints of mental capacity and benefit from constructing a particular identity. All our identities are constructed models of behaviour for others as well as ourselves. And the same person or group can belong to different identities which guides their behaviour according to context. The differences between internal identity subgroups may not be relevant at all when it comes to reacting to another "hated" group. This is true not only for TSP but for all countries in the periphery. This will be a dangerous self-delusion in formulating future strategy - that democracy or subnationalism may actually help India. The Iranian example shows that popular will when expressed through democracy may actually lead to retrogression and more jingoism towards "enemies".