Afghanistan News & Discussion

Shivani · Post by **Shivani** » 20 Dec 2008 22:28

Up to 30,000 more U.S. troops in Afghanistan by summer

reuters wrote:

KABUL (Reuters) - The United States is looking to send 20,000 to 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan by the beginning of next summer, the chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff said on Saturday.

Washington is already sending some 3,000 extra troops in January and another 2,800 by spring, but officials have previously said the number would be made up to 20,000 in the next 12 to 18 months, once approved by the U.S. administration.

"Some 20 to 30,000 is the window of overall increase from where we are right now. I don't have an exact number," Admiral Mike Mullen told reporters.

"We've agreed on the requirement and so it's really clear to me we're going to fill that requirement so it's not a matter of if, but when," he said. "We're looking to get them here in the spring, but certainly by the beginning of summer at the latest."

U.S. Army General David McKiernan has asked for the extra troops to halt a growing Taliban insurgency particularly in the east and south of Afghanistan.

President-elect Barack Obama has pledged a renewed focus on Afghanistan, where U.S.-led forces toppled the Taliban government in late 2001 after the September 11 attacks on the United States.

The United States now has some 31,000 troops in Afghanistan, some of them operating independently and some operating as part of a 51,000-strong NATO-led security assistance force.

Essentially they are planning to double the number of US footsoldiers in Afghanistan.

vavinash · Post by **vavinash** » 21 Dec 2008 07:47

They need it. Only the US and british troops seem to be doing something. The EU troops are just for show. I wonder if after mumbai GOI would consider having a base in afghanistan. A few aircrafts in Bagram will give pakis sleepless nights.

samuel.chandra · Post by **samuel.chandra** » 21 Dec 2008 10:46

GOI should consider having military presence (both airforce and army) in afghanistan... irrespective of whether the precision strikes happen in POK. That would keep the pakis guessing in case of an actual war. And during peacetimes, we can keep them busy through their porous...all we need to do is supply the baloch and NWFP folks ammo. Its a no-brainer. Weather we like it or not, pakis consider themselves at war with us all the time...so why not respond like its a war.

vavinash wrote:They need it. Only the US and british troops seem to be doing something. The EU troops are just for show. I wonder if after mumbai GOI would consider having a base in afghanistan. A few aircrafts in Bagram will give pakis sleepless nights.

sum · Post by **sum** » 21 Dec 2008 15:22

all we need to do is supply the baloch and NWFP folks ammo. Its a no-brainer. Weather we like it or not, pakis consider themselves at war with us all the time...so why not respond like its a war.

No reason to believe its not happening now...
Im certain all "morals"(if there were any) in the minds of our babus were tossed out of the window after the Kabul blasts and now the Mumbai SF ops...

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 27 Dec 2008 17:51

Ha!Ha! The CIA and its tactics.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... liban.html
CIA give Afghan warlords **** in exchange for information on Taliban
The CIA has secured co-operation from ageing Afghan warlords by providing them with an unusual incentive – ****.

By Toby Harnden in Washington
Last Updated: 5:59PM GMT 26 Dec 2008

****: the blue pills to boost libidos are the latest in a long line of inducements including tooth extractions and visas Photo:
"Whatever it takes to make friends and influence people – whether it's building a school or handing out ****," one veteran CIA officer told The Washington Post.

According to the newspaper, pills to boost the libidos of Afghan tribal patriarchs are the latest in a long line of inducements including medicine or operations for family, toys and school equipment, tooth extractions and visas.

In one case, a warlord aged 60 who was struggling to satisfy his four younger wives was also holding back information that could be crucial to American interests.

A clandestine CIA operatives who was visiting sensed an opportunity and reached into his bag for a small gift of four blue pills. "Take one of these," he said. "You'll love it."

Four days later, the CIA man returned to a beaming warlord – whether there were any smiles form his wives was not reported. The warlord furnished the CIA with invaluable details of Taliban supply routes and movements before requesting more pills.

More traditional CIA bribes involved money and guns. But they can be problematic because the weapons might be used against American forces and money can compromise an informant who is not careful about how visibly it is spent.

"If you give an asset $1,000, he'll go out and buy the shiniest junk he can find, and it will be apparent that he has suddenly come into a lot of money from someone," Jamie Smith, a former CIA officer, told The Washington Post.

"Even if he doesn't get killed, he becomes ineffective as an informant because everyone knows where he got it."

The trick was to identify a means of pleasing the CIA source enough to guarantee his loyalty without making it obvious to others that he's being rewarded.

"You're trying to bridge a gap between people living in the 18th century and people coming in from the 21st century so you look for those common things in the form of material aid that motivate people everywhere."

Div · Post by **Div** » 30 Dec 2008 22:53

TSPA has shut down the NATO/ISAF supply line under the guise of a "major operation" agains the Talibunnies.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7804133.stm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... lares.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Jan 2009 13:36

An Indian study on

Pak factor in Indo-Afghan relations(1947-1973)

SSridhar for you!

Hiten · Post by **Hiten** » 12 Jan 2009 01:30

How "surprise" is this visit
Karzai arrives to show 'solidarity' with India

even the 9 o clock news did not say anything

shynee · Post by **shynee** » 21 Jan 2009 23:33

Geopolitical Diary: A Russian Message to Washington, By Way of Kabul - Stratfor

Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s office released a letter Monday revealing Russia’s readiness to provide “broad” military assistance to Afghanistan. The letter, written by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, was Moscow’s response to a request for aid that Karzai had reportedly made in November 2008.

Medvedev’s letter was intentionally vague, simply stating that defense cooperation between Moscow and Kabul would be “effective for both countries” and “for establishing peace in the region.” The letter also calls for Moscow and Kabul to specify the grounds for cooperation moving forward. Though the letter itself didn’t say much, the timing of its release is absolutely critical.

Russia was sending a very deliberate message to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama on the eve of his inauguration. The top issues on Obama’s foreign policy agenda will involve turning the war around in Afghanistan and dealing with a resurgent Russia. The Russians are essentially signaling to Obama that if he expects any progress on the former, he is going to have to concede quite a lot on the latter.

Whether Russia is working to tear down a pro-Western government in Ukraine or sabotage Europe’s alternative energy projects, trying to reduce the United States’ military presence in Central Asia or finding new ways to damage NATO’s credibility, Moscow would much rather Washington stay out of its way — or better yet, facilitate Moscow’s moves — as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin methodically works to tighten the Kremlin’s grip on the former Soviet sphere of influence. The Russians recognize that the war in Afghanistan is not going well for the Americans, and that the United States is prepared to invest considerable time and resources for a revised military campaign led by Central Command chief Gen. David Petraeus. If the Russians can insert themselves into the Afghanistan equation, where U.S. military interests are currently concentrated, the more leverage Moscow will gain relative to the United States on issues deemed vital to Moscow’s interests.

The Russians already have a number of options in Afghanistan. For a variety of reasons, Pakistan has become more and more difficult for the United States to rely on as a military supply route into Afghanistan. Consequently, the U.S. military has little choice but to develop an alternative. While there are several variations on the theme, the alternative route likely would traverse Central Asian territory that is under Moscow’s control — if not Russian territory itself. Petraeus is currently on a tour through Central Asia to work out details on this alternate supply line, but if the White House wants Petraeus’ Afghanistan strategy to bear fruit, it will need Russian cooperation, which will not come for free.

But Putin isn’t stopping at the Afghan border. Afghanistan is familiar territory for the Russians – territory that they have viewed as part of their geopolitical cordon. Even after Russia fought its own bloody war with the Afghans, Moscow developed close ties with members of the Northern Alliance — an ethnic Tajik-dominated coalition that Russia and Iran have supported against the Pashtun-dominated Taliban. The Russians, who have a strong interest in containing the Taliban and preventing the spread of radical Islamist doctrine into the Muslim-populated regions of Russia, relied heavily on the Northern Alliance to retain a foothold in this region while the Taliban was still in power. Moreover, Russia has expanded its influence in Afghanistan to include links to some Pashtun tribes between Kabul and Kandahar that belonged to the secular Communist movement, which ruled Afghanistan for 14 years before Islamist forces took over in 1992.

It was not too long ago that the United States was forced to recognize Russian influence in Afghanistan. During preparations for the U.S. invasion in 2001, Washington relied on Moscow and the Russian-supported Northern Alliance to facilitate the invasion and topple the Taliban. But at that time, Putin’s resurgence strategy was still in its infancy. More importantly, Putin believed that the Americans would turn a blind eye to Moscow’s strategy in the former Soviet Union in return for its help in Afghanistan. Eight years later, Russia is more unified, stronger, determined and better positioned to demand much more from the Americans in return for its cooperation.

Through Medvedev’s letter to Karzai — which, not by coincidence, comes as the United States and NATO are publicly criticizing Karzai for not doing enough to support the war effort against the Taliban — Russia is showcasing its influence in Afghanistan, as well as its goal of increasing cooperation with a regime in Kabul that is on shaky ground with the West. Russia has enough of a foothold in Afghanistan to make things difficult for Washington should the need arise. And the last thing the United States needs is for a hostile power like Russia, upon which it must rely for supply lines into Afghanistan, to cause more friction in a critical region at a time when Washington is desperately trying to reduce friction.

Russia has issued a veiled threat for Obama to ponder in the early days of his presidency. It is a threat that deliberately lacks details about what the Russians can or plan to do in Afghanistan, but it will make Washington think twice about moves that would impede Moscow’s resurgent path. For the moment, that is probably enough for Moscow to make its point in Washington.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 25 Jan 2009 21:49

Obama ready to cut Karzai adrift

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 27 Jan 2009 04:19

Obama's Team Stumbling Into Afghanistan Trap by Steve Clemons: The Huffington Post

A superficial analysis of what some think-tank 'scholars' are saying.

Parag Khanna is also mentioned. Remember him having written some Bull§hit. Says Afghanistan requires support from Arabs, Turks and Chinese. Besides that, America should go and build roads in the Waziristans....

renukb · Post by **renukb** » 29 Jan 2009 10:33

Cross posting from TSP thread...

Ahh...now the Iran is not a part of axis of evil? US is looking for alternate supply routes for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Iran, Russia and Pakistan should not budge and should shutdown all supply routes.

Before NATO/US could use Iran on their side, Russia, India, China, Pakistan should co-ordinate and act in Afghanistan and get rid of NATO from Afghanistani region.

NATO chief sees role for Iran in Afghanistan
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 723624.htm

BRUSSELS, Jan. 26 (Xinhua) -- NATO Secretary-general Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said on Monday that all Afghanistan's neighbors, including Iran, must be engaged if the West wants to succeed in Afghanistan.

"To my mind, we need a discussion that brings in all the relevant regional players: Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Russia, and yes, Iran. We need a pragmatic approach to solve this very real challenge," he told a seminar of the Security and Defense Agenda, a Brussels-based think-tank.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 04 Feb 2009 06:36

NATO: Members May Use Iran for Easier Routes to Afghanistan

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 04 Feb 2009 23:32

Interests and Allegiances in the Insurgency by Massoud Quiam: Kabul Press

An article on Ghalzais vs Durranis.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Feb 2009 00:06

Thanks RajeshA.

While the writer brings out the differences he doesnt mention the fact that the Taliban are mostly Ghilzais and very few Durranis. And the Ghilzai period of power is from 1996 and not 1978. Another thing si the Durranis came to pwoer only with the Persian invvasions of Nadir Shah and his lieutanant Ahmed Shah Abdali aks Durrani who setup the sultanate of Afghanistan in its moslty current domains. The Brits helped his descendents grab Herat from the Persians in 1880s.

I suspect that the earlier Afghan rulers were Ghilzais who got shaheed when Badur conquered Kabul and made that a Mughal province after Panipat.

Raja Birbal was killed fighting the Persians in Kandahar in 1584 and not the Afghans.

IOW for about five centuries the Ghilzais were the downtrodden folk and were supplanted by the Durranis in 1750s. Shades of class struggle.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Feb 2009 02:12

The writer cleverly does not or minimzes the Paki role in the rise and subsequent fall and sheltering of the Taliban. As an exercise one can replace occurrences of AlQ with TSPA and see how the article reads in that para.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Feb 2009 08:01

Someone commeted;

ramana, i want to thank you for sparking an interest in me for afghanistan. while i have not really contributed any thing to these threads due to my duties in real life, these (afg, gg etc.,) are the only threads i try keep up on. i also really appreciate your collegiate temperament. for people of your wisdom & learning, such humility and natural curiosity is truely rare. its rare in self professed academics, it almost non-existent in general populace. heartfelt thanks.

Thanks for the inspiring coments. We ride on giants' shoulders like Rajaram, SSridhar, Paul and Acharya who all have contributed to understanding this topic. I am sure we all will stirve more knowing there ae people who appreciate the work.

ramana

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 05 Feb 2009 08:42

Afghanistan: chaos central

A correspondent looks back at the deterioration across the country over the past three years: the resurgence of both the Taliban and the old corrupt elites, the failure of the occupation forces, and the worsening conditions of life for everybody else

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 05 Feb 2009 09:11

ramana wrote:Thanks for the inspiring coments. We ride on giants' shoulders like Rajaram, SSridhar, Paul and Acharya who all have contributed to understanding this topic. I am sure we all will stirve more knowing there ae people who appreciate the work.

ramana

don't forget to thank renukb

the facts that he raises, nobody else even has any inkling of

talk about specialized knowledge!

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 05 Feb 2009 09:18

Avinash R wrote:World court inquiry sought in Afghan rapes
http://www.thestar.com/article/553770

-Former soldier Tyrel Braaten says some Canadian officers turned a blind eye to the sexual abuses of boys by Afghan interpreters at his base.

-Chaplain says senior officer aware of rapes by Afghans

-The boy was no more than 12. He wore a wig, lipstick and perfume and was dressed in a flowing robe when an Afghan interpreter escorted him to the entrance of the Canadian base in remote Afghanistan.

What else do you expect from the descendants of Alexander's armies?
Macho womanizing tobacco-spitting baritone-sounding log-tossing manly men?

Remember - the Pashtuns invented "don't ask, don't tell"

The Taliban can outlaw kite-flying and white socks, but if they ever really tried to stamp out homosexuality or pedophilia, then they'd have a real uprising on their hands.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 05 Feb 2009 12:10

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 07 Feb 2009 00:38

Biden warns of 'perilous road' ahead
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/02/ ... ngress.php
Published: February 6, 2009

"We've got to make Afghanistan the world's responsibility, not just the United States' responsibility," he said, eliciting cheers.

.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 07 Feb 2009 03:13

http://www.emap.ro/countries_asia_a.php

Maps of the US forces in 2001 in Afghanistan and elsewhere

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 07 Feb 2009 21:51

Afghan road gives India a boost

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 08 Feb 2009 22:48

From The Sunday Times
February 8, 2009
Obama puts brake on Afghan surge

AmitR · Post by **AmitR** » 10 Feb 2009 10:00

Iran may give India access to Afghanistan

http://www.hindu.com/2009/02/10/stories ... 991200.htm

India is surely putting it's feet in Afganistan to cut off Pakistan. Hopefully this will not become like another Bangaldesh.

kidoman · Post by **kidoman** » 10 Feb 2009 23:27

AmitR wrote:Iran may give India access to Afghanistan

http://www.hindu.com/2009/02/10/stories ... 991200.htm

India is surely putting it's feet in Afganistan to cut off Pakistan. Hopefully this will not become like another Bangaldesh.

What do you mean "this will not become like another Bangaldesh" ???

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Feb 2009 23:12

Appears there were Talibani attacks in Kabul. Many dead.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 12 Feb 2009 04:55

Stratfor

Afghanistan: A Demonstration of the Taliban's Reach
February 11, 2009 | 2133 GMT

To me, it looks as if Taliban/AlQaeda saw the success of the Mumbai attacks, and decided to repeat similar tactics against Kabul.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Feb 2009 04:57

'Spectacular' raids on Afghan ministries kill 28

The assailants sent three text messages to their leader in Pakistan before launching the assault, said Amrullah Saleh, chief of Afghanistan’s intelligence agency.

Saleh said officials had intelligence indicating a ‘spectacular’ attack involving multiple suicide bombers was imminent, but said they did not have enough specifics to prevent it.

He compared the attacks to the assault on hotels, markets and a train station in Mumbai last November that killed 164 in India

http://www.nation.com.pk/pakistan-news- ... -kill-28/1

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 12 Feb 2009 13:36

Gentle readers,

This latest attack on Kabul is a message from pakistan. The obvious similarity to the 26/11 attack on Mumbai is there for all to see. But what is more important is to connect some not so obvious dots.

By doing 26/11 on India, Pakistan yet again breached the red line. The GOI was found wanting but at the same time there is a realization that we cannot endure endlessly for Pakistan to unravel. The war of thousand cuts started by pakistan was now pan India and Pakistan was getting desperate. A retribution and intervention is on the cards.

Just as in 71, GOI I believe is building its case and preparing its revenge. Whatever we may say about the complete lack of clarity and stupidity of the present administration, there is a realization that they screwed up and they want to set right things.

It is in this context, that the US/UK request for restraint has been entertained yet again but albeit temprorarily. Just as in the case of post parliament attack the then NDA expected the US to guarantee the cessation of cross border terror, while mobilising through parakram, this government too is asking the US/West to make pakistan see reason, and deliver on Indian demands. Whether such outsourcing is correct or not is a different debate, that I do not want to dwelve here.

Let me return back to the attack in Kabul. While the GOI has maintained that it will react if pakistan does not deliver, and is keen on demonstrating some of the options it has - the recently concluded amphibian tri service integrated theatre based invasion exercise 80 nautical miles away from Pakistan is an example, the psy op of considering entering Afghanistan with troops on ground is another example.

The US/West had expected to bring down the level of Indian anger by appearing to be on the side of GOI and public posturing against pakistan. They have also sought to minimise the impact on their war on terror in afghanistan. The idea seems to be to deliver some public slaps on pakistan and punishments such as witholding of official aid (to be compensated by unofficial arrangements of drug trade using a deal with taliban) and also get India to discuss kashmir. The idea is to diffuse, dilute and recede the Indian intent and threat to pakistani state.

Pakistan in the meantime has reacted in a coordinated manner similar to the antics of yahya and bhutto in 71. Back then the ambassador of Pakistan to the UN would plead against Indian aggression and how pakistan was a small state being hounded by big bully India which is in the communist camp, and at home Bhutto and Yahya would rave and rant about how they are going to teach India a lesson. History truly repeats itself. Someone pleads, someon threatens, they say one thing in the morning and deny in a few hours. All the while making sure that time gets wasted.

Behind the scenes the real intent is played out. In a telling series of messages in the last couple of days, the paki elite in PA and ISI have sent out the following messages:

1. Obama & Co: you are planning a surge in Afghanistan are you? We can cut your jugular. You are planning alternate routes are you? We can still organise mayhem inside Kabul your fortress like Mumbai. You are planning a pakthunistan across durand line and think about takind out our strategic depth? Well we can turn it around expand over the durand line into Afghanistan, we can buy and manage these talibani clans much better than you can because at the end of the day the scruff of their necks is still with the puppet masters. If you think you can browbeat us to go after Al Quaeda, think again, long considered dead AQ no. 3 issuing fresh fatwas against India is an example of how well we have done the job of fighting your GOAT.

2. India - You think we can be stopped after the pressure you have brought on us after 26/11 think again. We can hit you and your people in Afghanistan just like in Mumbai - witness the killing of an Indian engineer, and the mayhem in kabul. So if you want to have boots on ground in afghanistan to cut us to pieces we will take the war to you. We can also take the war to the nuclear level - a free AQ Khan and flow of a dirty bomb to non state actors is not something that you can miss.

So the message is clear, the rentier state knows it is dying and is therefore desperate, it will plead to survive, it will beg to survive, it will blackmail to survive. It will all of this together and at the same time. It increases the perception of an illogical and irrational state and thereby pushes others to be more circumspect.

It calls for a lot of thinking and cold calculations of tradeoffs followed by action to ensure that the process of implosion of pakistan is achieved with minimal cost.

Just another ramble. Take it for what it is worth

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 12 Feb 2009 14:23

Raja Ram wrote:Behind the scenes the real intent is played out. In a telling series of messages in the last couple of days, the paki elite in PA and ISI have sent out the following messages:

1. Obama & Co: you are planning a surge in Afghanistan are you? We can cut your jugular. You are planning alternate routes are you? We can still organise mayhem inside Kabul your fortress like Mumbai. You are planning a pakthunistan across durand line and think about takind out our strategic depth? Well we can turn it around expand over the durand line into Afghanistan, we can buy and manage these talibani clans much better than you can because at the end of the day the scruff of their necks is still with the puppet masters. If you think you can browbeat us to go after Al Quaeda, think again, long considered dead AQ no. 3 issuing fresh fatwas against India is an example of how well we have done the job of fighting your GOAT.

2. India - You think we can be stopped after the pressure you have brought on us after 26/11 think again. We can hit you and your people in Afghanistan just like in Mumbai - witness the killing of an Indian engineer, and the mayhem in kabul. So if you want to have boots on ground in afghanistan to cut us to pieces we will take the war to you. We can also take the war to the nuclear level - a free AQ Khan and flow of a dirty bomb to non state actors is not something that you can miss.

So the message is clear, the rentier state knows it is dying and is therefore desperate, it will plead to survive, it will beg to survive, it will blackmail to survive. It will all of this together and at the same time. It increases the perception of an illogical and irrational state and thereby pushes others to be more circumspect.

It calls for a lot of thinking and cold calculations of tradeoffs followed by action to ensure that the process of implosion of pakistan is achieved with minimal cost.

SSridhar wrote:The names of Maulvi Nazir from South Wazirastan, Hafiz Gul Bahadur from North Waziristan, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, Maulana Farooq Kashmiri and Syed Salahudin have been included in the hit lists of the Taliban, who have threatened some Hizbul Mujahideen leaders in Swat and Dir to leave the areas as soon as possible.

The lower ranks of the Taliban do not care whom they are fighting as long as the upper ranks can dish out some story with some Pushtun honor, some jihadi call-to-arms, and a mission with some money from the loot. Today they may be with Maulvi Nazar and Hafiz Gul Bahadur. Tomorrow the same Taliban may be fighting on the side of Beitullah Mehsud or Mullah Fazlullah.

So the key to turning the fight around, is the facilitation of removal of the Sarkari Taliban leaders and Sarkari Jihadis (Pakjabi variant) from the scene, and letting those Taliban leaders take over, who are not under the control of TSPA, or in any case under less control. These are the Taliban leaders who are in control of Bajaur and Swat, and wish to increase the Taliban sway within Pakistan itself.

With time the Rebel Taliban could also win over Jalaluddin Haqqani, and with that finish off all control, which TSPA has over the Taliban.

This may be an operation, which the Afghans and the Indians could coordinate together.

sum · Post by **sum** » 12 Feb 2009 15:30

Raja ram sir,
I have always read your different amazing analysis from a long time and they have usually found to be on the dot.
My Q is on what basis do you say:

Just as in 71, GOI I believe is building its case and preparing its revenge. Whatever we may say about the complete lack of clarity and stupidity of the present administration, there is a realization that they screwed up and they want to set right things.

There has been zilch/nada signs from the GoI to indicate anything of that sort. Did you get this feeling while interacting with some GoI functionaries etc?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Feb 2009 22:17

sum, thats why I said has anyone followed the houbara hunt? The nitty gritty details not the animal rights ones.

Its clear that the hand that has the scruff of the necks has to be cut or chopped off.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 12 Feb 2009 23:31

Significant, Azeri's are in close co-operation with Israel and the west.
Head of Azerbaijan's air force killed

By AIDA SULTANOVA – 23 hours ago

BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — An unidentified gunman fatally shot Azerbaijan's air force chief Wednesday, the Defense Ministry said — the highest-level killing to hit the oil-rich country's armed forces in peacetime since the Soviet collapse.

President Ilham Aliyev in televised comments called the slaying a "terrible crime" and said he would take personal control of the investigation.

"I demand the law enforcement agencies find and hold responsible those who carried out and ordered this terrible crime," Aliyev said.

Azerbaijan's chief military prosecutor, speaking from the rain-soaked site of the shooting outside Lt. Gen. Rail Rzayev's home in the capital, Baku, said authorities did not know the motive.

Strategically located between Russia and Iran, Azerbaijan is a crucial link in Western efforts to reduce reliance on Russian energy exports and a target in Moscow's tug-of-war with the United States over regional influence. But there was no immediate sign of a link with that struggle.

Tension with neighboring Armenia remains high 15 years after a cease-fire in a war that left Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh territory in ethnic Armenian hands. Ruled for most of the past 15 years by members of a single family, Azerbaijan has a rich history of alleged coup plots and political machinations.

According to chief military prosecutor Khanlar Veliyev, Rzayev's driver told investigators both men were outside the general's home and the driver was throwing bag of garbage away at the request of his boss when he heard a gunshot. Veliyev said it appeared Rzayev died of a single gunshot wound to the head.

Rzayev had gotten into his car to be driven to work when he was shot, the private television station Lider reported. Veliyev said investigators were looking at security-camera footage from the home and searching the area for clues, but were hampered by the heavy rains that fell all night.

Rzayev, 63, was a longtime Soviet military officer who became head of Azerbaijan's air force shortly after the country gained independence in the 1991 Soviet collapse.

As air-defense forces chief, he had represented Azerbaijan in talks with Russia and the U.S. on Moscow's 2007 proposal to make a Soviet-built radar station in Azerbaijan part of a joint missile shield to protect against potential threat from, Iran.

The Kremlin proposal failed to persuade the U.S. administration to abandon plans for missile defense facilities in Poland and the Czech Republic, which Russian officials contend are actually aimed to weaken their country.

Moscow uses the Gabala station as part of its early-warning system. It is renting the Gabala station until at least 2012, but is building a radar station in southern Russia as a potential alternative once that lease expires.

The United States and European Union have cultivated warm ties with Azerbaijan because of its oil riches and its location on an energy export route bypassing Russia and Iran, and Azerbaijan is one of the few mostly Muslim countries that have sent troops to Iraq. But the U.S. and Europe have expressed concern over government treatment of opponents and independent media under Aliyev, who succeeded his long-ruling father in 2003 after an election the opposition said was rigged.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 13 Feb 2009 05:59

I assume only the Russians would have had the chutzpah to knock him off. The Iranians might not be able to get away with that.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 13 Feb 2009 12:09

sum,

yes and no. I had shared in this forum sometime back that in a discussion shortly after 26/11 in an informal interaction with someone who is close to the inner circle of the powerful had mentioned hum nahin chodenge! toda sabar rako ! I was sharing with him my frustration with the impotence and incompetence. I did not know the meaning of the word "sabar" and checked it up on this forum.

But I said what I said not on the basis of an isolated conversation alone. What I base it on is on the facts:

(i) the silly game of leaks and covering their assess have stopped. The new HM has taken a balanced view of things. Instead of apportioning blame, he has concentrated on identifying the gaps and sealing them. There is a lot of silent work going on in getting a lot of acts together and internal security is getting a lot of attention.

(ii) the EAM had mobilised its resources globally and made sure that India's message and expectations are clear and unambigous. Especially the three guarantors for Pakistan have been told not to plead its case in Delhi but to get Islamabad to deliver. Contrary to our perception here it has not been outsourced to the US. The US has been coopted and taken up on its offer to make Pakistan see reason in exchange for India not to take punitive retribution as it may affect their plans in Afghanistan. Indian position has been, if you do not want us to take action, here is what your friends in pakistan must deliver. We will wait but not indefinitely. If nothing comes through then we will do what we must and want to do.

This has been taken seriously by the US/West and other patrons, hence their pressure has been relentless and pakistani squirming has been very public.

(iii) the military options have been signalled - the theatre level amphibous landing involving all three services in the Gujarat coastline, the activation of air assets and readiness profile and the periodic warnings issued by Defence Minister, and Air Force and Army chiefs are clear messages to the PA.

All of the above are indicators at best, and one is never sure if this mirrors the preparation time that we went through before 1971. That mobilization was for an all out war. Here it may be based on the cold start doctrine and for a dirty war to decapicitate the terror machine first and then aid the process of implosion.

I shall stop here. Afterall this thread is about Afghanistan and my post was on the message that was being sent out by Pakistan by way of the attack in kabul.

Rajesh A,

The Talibani ranks or for that any militia in Afghanistan is held together by promises of looting rights, money and sphere of influence. Most of the lower levels have always switched sides based on the above and the ground reaity that is facing them. The NA was boxed in and cornered and were just surviving when taliban was in full control. Moment the reality changed post 9/11 and the NA lauched their offensive many in the Talibani ranks fled or switched sides. It is a cultural and religious tradition of that place. When the US backed the NA by its bombing of Afghanistan and the link to Pakistan was snapped by Armitage, the groups changed sides.

So what you have said can happen again. The key is therefore to ensure that the side that you back has the momentum and the capability to hurt the other groups real bad. Then they will see you as the winning side and join up. The other key point is in Afghanistan you have to offer "you or either with us or against us" proposition - with a clear statement of intent and capability to act on that intent when the other party chooses to be against you. You can never try and reason our and achieve compromise. IOW no sama only danda works there.

Just my view.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Feb 2009 21:08

ramana wrote:sum, thats why I said has anyone followed the houbara hunt? The nitty gritty details not the animal rights ones.

Its clear that the hand that has the scruff of the necks has to be cut or chopped off.

I repeat.

sum · Post by **sum** » 13 Feb 2009 22:23

ramana wrote:
ramana wrote:sum, thats why I said has anyone followed the houbara hunt? The nitty gritty details not the animal rights ones.

Its clear that the hand that has the scruff of the necks has to be cut or chopped off.
I repeat.

No Ramana garu, i am clueless as to what you are pointing at!!!

Maybe, you mean that the ME giants like Saudi etc need to be handled first before its foot-soldier, pak?

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 14 Feb 2009 00:08

Raja Ram garu dont believe an iota of that sabar talk, you came convinced because you did not the meaning of sabar.
The sabar time will not come because this govt (hope) will be thrown out and the one that comes will blame the previous govt and get busy with its own looting programe for recouping the election money they spent.

This sabar business is grabage because based on passt Kargil thru parliament , Akshardam terror we should have been ready to retaliate, we are now talking of no artilery for IA or MBRLS, etc, so just go back to the desk and do some thinking of what the sabar means.