West Asia News and Discussions

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 28 Mar 2009 02:27

The Saudis like most of the Gulf states wouldnt have to worry about Iran if they didnt treat Shia Arabs so poorly.

Every time they're frightened by Iran they crack down on the Arab Shia as potential fifth columnists over and above the usual sectarian discrimination.

Kuwait has handled this round of regional tension better than it did in the 1980s and better than either Saudi Arabia or Bahrain since 2005.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Mar 2009 07:43

Is it really that bad for the shia in Persian Gulf? I understand the situation in Bahrain quite well, and why the Shi'ites have their grievance there. Its only Kuwait, KSA and Bahrain that seem to have problems with the Shi'ites. The others don't seem to have that much of a problem. The Shia are just as entitled to state benefits as the other nationals (apart from Bahrain of course). What other grievances do they have especially in KSA and Kuwait?

After the Mugniyeh assassination. The local Hezbollah-Kuwait, organized a meeting in Kuwait City to pay tribute to the "heroes". Two Kuwaiti Shi’ite legislators as well as citizens of Saudi Arabia and Bahrain took part in the meeting. Kuwait’s government reacted angrily to the initiative because Mughniyeh had attempted to assassinate Jaber al Sabah, father of the current monarch, and also took part in hijacking a Kuwaiti airliner in Cyprus in 1984. The emirate’s security service immediately ordered a round-up in the southern districts of Kuwait city and a number of Shi’ite imams were forbidden to preach on Friday.

The Saudi officers who took part in questioning militants arrested on the occasion are said to have established that some were intent on infiltrating Shi’ite communities in Saudi Arabia. Shi’ite militants are said to have been arrested by the authorities in the cities of Al Qatif and Ihsa in eastern Saudi Arabia.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 28 Mar 2009 18:55

Surprise in Riyadh: Saudi King Abdullah names Sudairi Prince Nayef second in line

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 28 Mar 2009 21:54

Bahrain Boils with Shia-Sunni Tensions

http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/03/28/ ... ahrain.php

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Mar 2009 05:04

Iranian, NATO officials meet after 30 years

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 29 Mar 2009 13:43

I thought India's relations with Iran had gone down the tubes, we had sacrificed everything with Iran for one vote, for the nuclear deal with the US... Now Iran wants regular consultations? What does one make of it? Is everything OK now?

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 29 Mar 2009 17:30

Surprise in Riyadh: Saudi King Abdullah names Sudairi Prince Nayef second in line

Guys some say this guy is one of the most important figures in promoting islamic extremism including Al Qaeda.He is one of the kingpins who is actually a part of the ruling elite of KSA.

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 29 Mar 2009 17:49

Sanjay M wrote: Shia-Sunni Tensions

'Saudi Religious Police Pick On Shiite Women' (*LiveLeak Video*)

The same scene filmed from another angle. The women can be heard chanting religious slogans : A video posted on the Internet has aroused the wrath of Saudi Arabia's Shiite community. In the footage, a member of the religious police, a mutawa, can be seen filming women on a pilgrimage in Medina - an insulting gesture that has sparked demos and riots in several cities.

On February 20Shiite pilgrims were heading for the tombs of the prophets and the Sahabas (the Prophet's companions) in Medina when they were harassed by members of Saudi Arabia's religious police. The officers of the Commission for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice went so far as to film the veiled women. The gesture, interpreted as a grave provocation by the country's Shia community, prompted a series of protests in the eastern Qatif province, in which 17 demonstrators were arrested and several others were injured.

The incidents come at a time of rising tension between the country's two main communities. On February 13, an institutional reform decreed by King Abdullah had already aroused the ire of Saudi Shiites. For the first time, the Council of Senior Ulema will be open to Sunni Muslims as well as Wahhabis, while Shiites remain excluded from the country's religious authorities.

In a country where fundamentalist Wahhabis - Islam's self-proclaimed "saved group" - make up the majority of the population, Shiite Muslims, roughly a fifth of the population, say they are the target of systematic discrimination. Our Observers on the ground describe the strained relations between the different Saudi communities.

And according to what I've read, Manoucher Mottaki flew in to Saudi to address this issue.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 29 Mar 2009 17:56

And according to what I've read, Manoucher Mottaki flew in to Saudi to address this issue.

shyamd wrote:IOL: Saudi's are pissed off with the Iranian meddling.

Saudi's have passed on intel reports about Iranian meddling in the eastern city of Al Jubail to their Syrian friends in GID, Immediately Assad sends an emmisary to Tehran to let them know of the "saudi anger". Tehran sends their Foreign Min to Riyadh to listen to the grievances.

Crown Prince suffers from incurable cancer, so a succession battle is on. Iranians are meddling in the east, so the princes are not happy. The Shia in the east have become more active.

Saudi GID suspects Al Qods IRGC are in the eastern provinces, stirring trouble.

However this serves the interests of some saudi dignitaries. E.g Mohammed Bin Fahd (Governor of the Eastern Province), who is a favourite to succeed Crown Prince Sultan. He has started a crackdown on anyone who speaks against wahhabism.
Mohammeds stance has increased his popularity among Bedouin tribes who form the hardcore of the Saudi regime, but also among Sunni ulemas who are also completely anti-shiite.

Bahrain:
Bahraini GID arrested many shia militants who were trained in Syria. Saudi GID intercepted comms between Saudi Shia sheikh and Iran. They apparently underwent military training in Syria under Hezbollah.
------------------
Well, what goes around comes around as they say. Glad Iran is on the offensive against KSA.

Tilak · Post by **Tilak** » 29 Mar 2009 18:14

Saudi Religious Police Pick On Shiite Women

Second (**LiveLeak Video**) with a better shot of the muttawa..

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 30 Mar 2009 00:41

shyamd wrote:Is it really that bad for the shia in Persian Gulf? I understand the situation in Bahrain quite well, and why the Shi'ites have their grievance there. Its only Kuwait, KSA and Bahrain that seem to have problems with the Shi'ites. The others don't seem to have that much of a problem. The Shia are just as entitled to state benefits as the other nationals (apart from Bahrain of course). What other grievances do they have especially in KSA and Kuwait?

Well those three are the only Gulf states that have an indigenous Twelver Shia population of any size.

The Shia population in places like Dubai are Iranian/Iraqi/Lebanese expats and enjoy the same kind of religious freedom that other expats do.

The Saudi state thanks to their ultra-sectarian Wahhabi background have been entirely intolerant of the Shia right to worship, and have blocked the Shia from advancing in government service. There's also always been fear of Shia secession from around Qatif. This has been compounded by the rivalry for Islamic/ME leadership with Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution. Things got better after the mid-1990s when the Saudi-Iranian detente emerged but have gone downhill since 2006 as that detente broke down.

In Kuwait the state cracked down on the Shia after the Islamic revolution fearing they were next. They werent particularly careful about discriminating between ordinary Shia and those involved in Iranian supported extremist groups. Since the Gulf War of 1990 (when Sunni and Shia Kuwaitis alike had to flee or fight the Iraqis) there's been a real easing of tension, and more opportunities for Kuwaiti Shia to be treated like normal Kuwaitis. However there's still pressure anyone who gets too close to Iran.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Mar 2009 17:16

New Saudi 2nd. Deputy.Kinmg Abdullah has finally taken a decision on who will ascend the Saudi throne after ailing Prince Sultan.

http://www.island.lk/2009/03/30/world1.html

Saudi king names 2nd deputy PM in succession move RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) - Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has appointed the kingdom’s powerful interior minister and his half brother as the nation’s second deputy prime minister, according to an announcement late Friday.

The appointment indicates a succession order in the royal family, after four years of speculation over who will be the next-in-line once current heir, Prince Sultan, becomes king.

A royal statement carried by the official SPA news agency says Prince Nayef will take over the post, which is seen as a crown-prince-in-waiting.

The Saudi constitution does not require the king to appoint a second deputy prime minister but Friday’s move is also important because it will allow Abdullah to travel abroad.

With Sultan away in the United States on medical treatment, Nayef’s appointment will ensure that when Abdullah goes to the Arab Summit in Qatar next week and later to the G-20 meetings, somebody will be in charge at home.

However, Nayef’s appointment as second to the throne will still have to go through the Allegiance Association, set up by Abdullah in 2006 and composed of his brothers and some of his nephews who all vote by a secret ballot to choose future kings and crown princes. The Allegiance is expected to have the final say on who becomes crown prince after Sultan, who is in his 80s.

Nayef’s appointment comes five months after Sultan, who is the first deputy prime minister, left for New York for medical tests and later surgery. Rumors have circulated about the health of Sultan, who is in his 80s, but senior Saudi officials have said he is doing better after surgery.

Under the monarchy, Abdullah also acts as prime minister.

The Saudi monarchy was established in 1932 after its founder King Abdulaziz united the country’s various regions under his command.

Abdullah, now in his mid 80s, assumed the throne in Aug. 2005 after the death of his long-ailing half brother. He had already been a de-facto ruler for a decade and the transition to the leadership passed smoothly of this key U.S. ally and oil giant that has grappled with Islamic extremists and debated the need for reform.

But within hours of the announcement, another of Abdullah’s half brothers, Prince Talal bin Abdul-Aziz, issued a statement saying the appointment of Nayef, who is in his 70s, should not come at the expense of the Allegiance’s authority and that the automaticity of Nayef becoming second-in-line should not be assumed.

Talal told The Associated Press that Nayef’s appointment was just "an administrative nomination."

"I am appealing to King Abdullah to have the royal court declare what is meant by this nomination and that it does not mean that he will be the crown prince," Talal said.

Talal is an outspoken prince who holds no government posts and is considered something of an outsider within the royal family. He was forced briefly into exile in the 1960s amid reports at the time that he planned a revolt.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 30 Mar 2009 23:50

Libya's Gadhafi storms out of Arab summit in Qatar

Gadhafi disrupted the opening Arab League summit in Qatar by taking a microphone and criticizing Saudi's King Abdullah, calling him a "British product and American ally."

When the Qatari emir tried to quiet him, the Libyan leader and current Africa Union chairman insisted he be allowed to speak.

"I am an international leader, the dean of the Arab rulers, the king of kings of Africa and the imam (leader) of Muslims, and my international status does not allow me to descend to a lower level," Gadhafi said.

He then got up and walked out of the summit hall.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 31 Mar 2009 11:41

Truly an Arab summit is a joyous and hilarious event,as there has scarcely been one in which choice epithets and abuse has not been hurled by one member against another.The cries and calls for Arab unity,defeating Israel,etc.,are nothing but the equivalent of the WWE "specials",like the Royal Rumble,Wrestlemania,etc.!

negi · Post by **negi** » 31 Mar 2009 11:47

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 31 Mar 2009 13:03

While I'm no ME expert, it seems that the Arab countries in general have not been able to go beyond the old, alive and kicking tribal loyalties and therefore, the concpet of nation and nation building as we seem to understand (again I'm using these terms a layman) has not taken root. The socities are extremely regressive and with no desire seemingly to get 'ahead' in life. These regions were home to some of the most advanced civilizations in the past but all the glory seem to have been lost on the present incumbents courtsey the ROP. There is simlpy no progress in the field of education, science and technology and associated stuff. When given their financial clout (at least some), they could have had the bset of educational facilities and really caught up with the advanced world. But all they seemt o be interested is buying shining new SUVs, importing labor and technical staff and indulging in Camel races. their world view has simply not changed beyond what it was in the time of Poobah...

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 31 Mar 2009 22:10

Philip wrote:Truly an Arab summit is a joyous and hilarious event,as there has scarcely been one in which choice epithets and abuse has not been hurled by one member against another.

Now this reminds me a good scene in the old classic "Lawrence of Arabia"

. Was it after the capture of Istambul or during the attacks itself that Arabs start fighting with each other, over the issue of tribal superiority etc?

Johann · Post by **Johann** » 01 Apr 2009 00:29

The real problem at Arab summits isnt tribalism. Its that they all want to be the big man in charge, the man among men instead of the goat.

Collegiality doesnt come easy in Arab culture - you are either in control or you arent, even if everyone there's a good relationship and everyone is being polite and trying to avoid humiliating the other.

Thanks to the obsession with personal honour I dont think there's any other collection of world leaders that descends as quickly or as often to the level of personal insults.

Recall the Kuwaiti minister telling Saddam's Vice-President in 1990 they werent going to ease loan repayment terms, and would instead turn Iraqis in to a bunch of $10 wh0res. It's said that was the turning point in Saddam's decision to invade Kuwait.

Arab leaders keep this kind of behaviour in check when dealing with non-Arabs, but locked in a room with each other...its magnificently amplified.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 Apr 2009 00:59

When did Cyprus acquire its Turkish citizens? As far as I know Cyprus was a Greek outpost and during crusades a Christian outpost. Was this an Ottomon conquest after the Crusades?

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 01 Apr 2009 01:16

Yup, pretty much...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyprus#Ott ... itish_rule

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Apr 2009 02:55

India for closer ties with UAE

Atul Aneja
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Ties evolving into strategic partnership

Kalam points out challenges that will confront India

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DUBAI: The former President, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, has launched India Matters, a new monthly magazine of the Indian Consulate in Dubai, amid calls for a deeper economic engagement between India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to help tide over the global economic meltdown.

In view of the global slowdown and the financial crisis, India and the UAE should focus even more on each other and strengthen their longstanding economic and business ties, Venu Rajamony, Consul-General of India, said during his introductory message at a glittering launch function on Sunday.

India’s Ambassador to the UAE Talmiz Ahmad said growing India-UAE ties were evolving into a strategic partnership with diversification into new areas such as security, defence and energy.

He made this observation soon after the visit of three Indian naval ships which docked in Abu Dhabi before departing for Oman and the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.

Mr. Kalam pointed to the challenges that will confront India in the next decade and the business opportunities that they will propel.

The Crown Prince of Ras Al-Khaimah, Sheikh Saud bin Saqr Al-Qasimi, said the emirate was deeply engaged with India, advancing in the modern era a legacy of commercial and cultural ties that went back several centuries.

The Crown Prince said nearly 30 per cent of the investments in Ras Al-Khaimah were from India.

Folks, I think UAE is next in line for the Indian nooklear umbrella after Qatar and Oman. But hold your horses, if BJP gets power in next elections, it may go into cold storage. The only thing we can hope for with a partnership with UAE is an intel sharing scheme. The UAE intel know everything going on with the underworld and internal developments in Pak. So, it may be useful.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 01 Apr 2009 02:58

ramana wrote:When did Cyprus acquire its Turkish citizens? As far as I know Cyprus was a Greek outpost and during crusades a Christian outpost. Was this an Ottomon conquest after the Crusades?

the greeks and turks have many cultural similarities, they are ofcourse divided by race (to some extent) and the biggie - religion

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 Apr 2009 19:28

So who did bomb the Iranian arms trucks in Sudan? - Debka disinfo.

IOL:
IOL confirms it was Israeli warplanes that hit the trucks.

Big American groups (Boeing and Oil co's) are taking advantage of the diplomatic thaw between Washington and Damascus to position themselves on the Syrian market.

Iranians are thinking of new ways to re-supply Hamas.

Israaeeli scientists have tested a vaccine for anthrax, with financial backing of US.

Cairo has despatched deputy intel minister to find common ground with palestinian resistance forces.

French defense firms have found it difficult to negotiate arms sales with Libya in recent weeks.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 02 Apr 2009 00:39

Mayotte votes to become France's 101st département

Arab League rejects ‘French occupation’ of Mayotte

Mayotte voted on Sunday to become an integral part of France, in a referendum which would put an end to local traditions like polygamy and curb the powers of Islamic courts.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 03 Apr 2009 18:04

The Mugniyeh Hit - PS This could be disinfo. But it could be possible. The MEA agent could be the contact, as he would travel to Cyprus (Major transit point for Israeli intel), to speak with handlers. Being recruited in Paris sounds likely, because thats how Mossad operates. E.g A Syrian general was shopping for furniture for his office in Italy(I think, definetly europe). In a shop he is approached by a businessman, who becomes friendly and lets him know that he can get furniture quite cheap and of high quality. General says OKay. Furniture is shipped out, lands in the office. In the centre of the table is a bug planted to listen to all conversations in the room. Numerous operations like this. Similar things occured when saddam sent students to france to study nuclear related stuff(First attempt to stop Osirak).
The Vehicular Penetration of Hizballah
Israel Kept a Jump Ahead of the Mughniyeh Revenge Scheme

The violent death of of Hizballah's iconic military and intelligence chief Imad Mughniyeh February 12, 2008 in a luxury suburb of Damascus, for which it holds Israel responsible, is still shrouded in mystery.

How did the killers penetrate the secretive ace terror-strategist's inner defenses?

How were they able to operate deep inside the Syrian capital?

Mughniyeh, high on US and Israel lists since 1982 for a string of devastating massacres and abductions, was the quintessential invisible man who moved about his covert business for the Shiite organization and his masters in Tehran unrecognized.

More specific questions have been heard of late, such as: Was the bomb car which killed him palmed off by an Israeli hand?

How did Hizballah's innermost secrets, such as its plans to avenge Mughniyeh on the first anniversary of his death, leak to Israeli intelligence?

The Iran-backed Lebanese Shiites had cast a wide net for punishing Israel by attacking its representative institutions and Jewish targets across the world and wreaking its vengeance inside Israel as well. Israeli security knew enough about Hizballah's plans to place hundreds of these locations on high alert and warn Israeli travelers which danger spots to avoid.

Hizballah smoked out some answers by sheer luck.

The garage owner spied for Israel for 19 years

Feb. 19, Lebanese security sources told local media that dozens of Hizballah's military vehicles had been found rigged with bugs linked to Israel spy satellites.

They reported that Marwan Faqih, owner of a garage and gas station in the South Lebanese town of Nabatea, had confessed to attaching the gadgets and owned up to acting as an undercover Mossad agent for 19 years. He said he was recruited in 1990 in Paris.

He was described as buying his way into the good graces of the Hizballah by generous donations to the cause. The spy was made Hizballah's purchasing agent and given responsibility for the maintenance of its fleet of cars.

It was only by chance that he was rumbled.

One of his garage mechanics found an unfamiliar gadget in the electrical wiring of one of those cars and asked its owner, a Hizballah officer, what it was. The officer had no idea and told his commanders about the discovery. They declared an emergency there and then and grounded all vehicles. A sweep turned up bugs linked to satellites in dozens of cars.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence source report the episode came to light in January.

Faqih's interrogation produced the following sequence of events:

1. Hizballah's special forces rounded up more suspected members of the Israeli spy ring across Lebanon.

2. Thursday, Feb. 12, three unidentified assailants kidnapped Joseph Sader, 50, an official of the Middle East Airliners International Travel Department and sped off with him in a SUV.

The abduction raised a furor in Lebanon. The union of MEA employees threatened "escalatory steps" if Sader was not freed. They called it an "unjustified attack on the airline which had served the nation in dark times."

An airline official suspected of expediting rigged car deliveries

Monday, Feb. 16, the Lebanese army issued a communiqué denying that the kidnapped MEA employee had been handed over to intelligence, after "high-ranking sources" were quoted as saying that "a certain influential party" had done so Sunday evening.

That source said the army would eventually return Sader to his family after obtaining from him a full account of his abduction.

However, as we publish this issue, there is still no word about Josef Sader's fate.

Thursday, Feb. 19, the Lebanese army issued a statement arguing unconvincingly that Hizballah could not have kidnapped the missing man. Our sources stress however that the Shiite terrorists did indeed snatch Sader and are holding him captive because they suspect him of liaising between Marwan Faqih and his Israeli controllers in certain European capitals.

They believe that his job was to relay to Mossad agents the names of Hizballah officers needing new vehicles. The merchandize was swiftly delivered, along with secret tracking, recording and photography devices. Hizballah believes Sader used his Middle East Airline job to expedite the shipment to Beirut of the vehicles on order. He was so efficient that his contact Faqih boasted that owing to his excellent connections and credit with car manufacturers, he could fill an order in 48-72 hours.

A Hizballah commander could obtain a new car within hours by putting in a single phone call.

Mughniyeh died because he changed too many cars

Faqih became Hizballah's purchasing agent in 2006 shortly before the Lebanon war erupted in July. Its aftermath in September found a mountain of wrecked Hizballah vehicles which needed to be replaced urgently. New units were formed swelling the orders for vehicles.

In the past three years, therefore, Hizballah's entire command, including its intelligence and security officers, were exposed to Mossad eavesdroppers.

Mughniyeh was among them.

Hizballah's military chief never trusted the organization's bodyguards and preferred to drive himself without an escort. Through an aide, he used Faqih's services to change vehicles all the time in the same way as he switched disguises. After 15 changes in 10 months, Faqih may have begun to suspect that his reclusive client was none other than Mughniyeh and would have passed the word to his Israeli controllers.

Finally, Mossad had the key for taking out a vicious and elusive enemy Israel had sought for nearly three decades.

The lone wolf Hizballah leader made his last trip to Damascus on Feb. 8 2008 at the wheel of a Mitsubishi Pejaro. Explosives were hidden in the driver's headrest. They were detonated by satellite.

He was not killed as Hizballah believed by an Israeli hit-team which managed to reach Damascus.

Hizballah continues to grill suspects to unravel the baffling questions still outstanding and get to the bottom of this affair.

Richard Holbrooke Reaches out to Tehran

While still in Kabul on his first mission as US presidential emissary for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke said Feb. 15: "It is absolutely clear that Iran plays an important role in Afghanistan."

Talking to Tolo, a private Afghan TV network, he said: "They have a legitimate role to play in this region, as do all of Afghanistan's neighbors."

He then turned aside the allegations that Tehran had abetted the Taliban insurgents, saying curtly: "I heard those reports. I talked to the military command about them… I did not have enough time really to get into the details yet, but I will get into it on future trips."

He did not refer to the destinations of those trips. But by then, Holbrooke already knew that president Barack Obama had decided to appoint him emissary for the Iranian track as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan. His comment: "They have a legitimate role to play, as do all of Afghanistan's neighbors" indicated he had been empowered to deal with the Afghanistan war not only through India but also through Iran, both being neighbors.

On Feb. 13, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 384 wrote: Above all, the insurgents will do their utmost to lead Holbrooke away from his plan to introduce India into a peacemaking venture in Afghanistan in partnership with Pakistan.

Now, our sources predict, both the Taliban and al Qaeda will mount a supreme effort to keep Tehran out of the game.

Holbrooke's expanded brief conflicts with US pact with Saudi Arabia

Obama's decision to add Iran to Holbrooke's brief bears heavily on the shape of his administration's power structure in foreign and security affairs and the direction he has chosen to pursue with regard to South Asia and the Persian Gulf.

As presidential envoy, Holbrooke enjoys direct access to the president with authority to bypass secretary of state Hillary Clinton, defense secretary Robert Gates and national security adviser Gen. James Jones. He has been empowered as foreign policy strongman for shaping the president's strategy in key world arenas.

Obama needs to be free to concentrate on the economic crisis consuming America and is therefore expected to rely more and more on his senior foreign policy envoy taking Afghanistan and contacts with Iran off his hands.

But there is a price to pay for this change of course.

By granting Iran a pivotal role in the war on terror in Afghanistan and Pakistan, Holbrooke has afforded the Islamic Republic strong leverage. This step implies that Washington is willing to recognize Iran's long sought-after standing as a regional power – not merely in the Middle East but in Asia at large.

This acute shift in emphasis brings Obama's foreign policy into direct collision with another venture only just broached by his administration, the strategic pact with Saudi Arabia (revealed first in DEBKA-Net-Weekly 385 of Feb. 20: Saudi Prince Live Wire in Afghanistan Deal).

Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah is ready and willing to broker a US settlement with the Taliban and help heal Washington's rift with Damascus – but only for the sake of cutting Iran out of the race for regional superpower status. Holbrooke is driving Obama's regional policy in the opposite direction. It is hard to see how the two directions can be coherently melded.

Israel's Covert War on Iran Faces Disapproving White House

Facing mounting U.S. opposition behind the scenes, Israel still plans to continue a covert operation to delay Iran's nuclear program by assassinating key Iranian scientists, U.S. officials said.

The Israeli program which has been in place for almost a decade, involves not only targeted killings of key Iranian assets but also disrupting and sabotaging Iran's nuclear technology purchasing network abroad, these sources said.

Reva Bhalla, a senior analyst for Stratfor, a U.S. private intelligence company, commented publicly that key Iranian nuclear scientists were the targets of the strategy.

"With cooperation from the United States, Israeli covert operations have focused both on eliminating key [Iranian] assets involved in the nuclear program and the sabotaging of the Iranian nuclear supply chain," he said.

But U.S. opposition to the program has intensified as U.S. President Barack Obama makes overtures aimed at thawing 30 years of tension between the two countries.

Part of this is due to the U.S.'s desire to use Iran's road networks into Afghanistan to help resupply U.S.-NATO forces there.

But Israel's interests in the region are not the same as those of the United States, several U.S. officials said.

Pat Clawson, director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said of the Israeli killings: "That's what the Israelis would do, what we would expect them to do. They would kill Iranian scientists."

Asked about the mounting administration disapproval, Clawson said of the killings, "It would be implausible to call off all covert ops." He added: "If the U.S. pressures Israel, then the Israelis will simply stop talking to us about it."

Israel's targeted killing program has taken on new urgency since Washington made clear last year that an Israeli air attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was out of the question.

"The goal now is to delay for as long as possible, Iran getting to the point of having a nuclear weapon," a former U.S. intelligence official said.

Asked to comment, Middle East expert Tony Cordesman, said of the killings: "There's not that much of it going on," and its success was dubious in any case.

Israel's targeting killing program was done in concert with the [George W.] Bush administration, former U.S. sources said.

A former senior CIA official described several joint U.S.-Mossad operations to derail Iran's nuclear program as "something out of slapstick." All had failed miserably, he said.

A new wave of assassination and sabotage programs were launched in spite of the fact that in 2005, the United States had little to no intelligence about the status of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

According to U.S. sources, in 2004, the CIA had lost its entire agent network in Iran when a CIA headquarters communications officer was about to send instructions to an agent via its Immarsat transmitter/receivers. The CIA officer attempted to download data intended for a single operative, but accidentally hit a button that sent it to the entire U.S. spy network in Iran, these sources said.

The information was received by a double agent who forwarded it to Iranian counterintelligence, which quickly wrapped up the entire network, leaving Washington completely blind.

Perhaps the earliest attempt to derail Iran's efforts was launched in 2000, under the Bill Clinton administration when, under the code-name "Operation Merlin," it gave a Russian defector and nuclear engineer plans for an atomic bomb and he delivered it to a high-ranking Iranian official in Vienna. The operation was personally approved by Clinton.

The plans were scary – they were for a Russian-made TBA 480 "firing switch' that could create an implosion that would trigger a chain reaction in a small spherical core of uranium.

The kicker was that the plans were full of flaws that would send the Iranian program into a technological dead end.

The Iranians were not supposed to spot the inserted design flaws that would render any device based on the plans null and void.

But according to U.S. officials, the Iranians easily spotted the flaws, and the United States may have inadvertently placed a very dangerous document among one of the world's most dangerous nations.

Operation Merlin was still alive and kicking during the Bush administration, whose officials said they planned to try it on other countries.

In addition to targeting Iranian scientists, Israel is hard at work trying to sabotage Iran's supply chain for the program using European front companies, U.S. officials said.

Mossad recruits workers for these companies who can obtain technical data on equipment or photographs of it, former CIA officials said. These are then forwarded to Israeli scientists for analysis and study, they said.

A few years ago, the United States and Israel came up with a joint plan to wreck the electrical grid Iran was using to power its nuclear program, a former senior official said. (I think this has been used) Again, this was a joint U.S.-Israeli program that would use an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP) device to send a disabling power surge through power lines causing them to short out, U.S. officials said.

The equipment was tested in the Nevada desert, but in Iran the EMP bombs would have had to be smuggled into the country by Israelis, then placed in open areas near the nuclear installation where they could be easily spotted. The plan was abandoned, U.S. officials said.

Regarding Israel's policy of targeted killing, it began seriously after the murder of Israeli athletes by members of Black September, a radical Palestinian group, which was "basically the PLO," according to former CIA agent Bob Baer.

Since then it has been used to eliminate Palestinian or Islamic militants in the West Bank and Gaza. Israel's prime minister personally approves each killing, and the work is done by "hit teams" that are made up of squadrons of Kidon, a sub-unit of Mossad's highly secret Masada department which stages the operations, former U.S. officials said. Kidon is a Hebrew word meaning, "bayonet."

A U.S. official said that Israel has staged targeted killings "in friendly countries," but that the diplomatic world has greatly changed since former President Bush. For one thing, the United States and Iran are engaged in talks on major issues. For another, Iran is a long-standing and unforgiving enemy of the Taliban.

According to U.S. officials, in October 2001 when U.S. forces began bombing the Taliban force following the 9/11 attacks, Iran provided excellent targeting information on the Taliban.

Furthermore, the political climate has changed. The new government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel has not assumed any definite shape and seems in disarray.

"The only thing Netanyahu does well is fear monger," said the U.S. official. He said he did not think Netanyahu would remain in power for very long.

In any case, Netanyahu faces a different Washington. Even though under Clinton, Netanyahu faced a hostile president, the Israelis at least had a Republican Congress at his back for use as a counterweight. Netanyahu's praise of deregulation and tax cuts went over well back then, but today the U.S. Republican Party is a wreck with little credibility.

There is also energy gathering in the White House for a fresh push for a Middle East peace, sources there said. For Netanyahu "the twilight is falling," said one former U.S. official.

sum · Post by **sum** » 03 Apr 2009 21:22

According to U.S. sources, in 2004, the CIA had lost its entire agent network in Iran when a CIA headquarters communications officer was about to send instructions to an agent via its Immarsat transmitter/receivers. The CIA officer attempted to download data intended for a single operative, but accidentally hit a button that sent it to the entire U.S. spy network in Iran, these sources said.

The information was received by a double agent who forwarded it to Iranian counterintelligence, which quickly wrapped up the entire network, leaving Washington completely blind.

Holy #@$%#!

Is the concerned officer thrown behind bars in cases like this?

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 04 Apr 2009 04:34

Hamas couldn't fire smuggled Stingers against Israelis due to embedded ID system

The source said Hamas smuggled four Stinger systems in 2008. The source said the Hamas military deployed the Stingers against Israel Air Force AH-64 Apache attack helicopters during strike missions in the northern Gaza Strip. "Our gunners couldn't fire the weapon," the source recalled. "A notice came up on the display saying 'friendly aircraft.'"

Another Hamas source said gunners deployed Stinger along with heavy machine guns in attacks on Israeli helicopters during the war in the Gaza Strip. The source said one Stinger surface-to-air missile was launched, but the projectile veered off course and struck a Hamas gunner squad.

Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 04 Apr 2009 04:42

Gerard wrote:Hamas couldn't fire smuggled Stingers against Israelis due to embedded ID system
The source said Hamas smuggled four Stinger systems in 2008. The source said the Hamas military deployed the Stingers against Israel Air Force AH-64 Apache attack helicopters during strike missions in the northern Gaza Strip. "Our gunners couldn't fire the weapon," the source recalled. "A notice came up on the display saying 'friendly aircraft.'"
Another Hamas source said gunners deployed Stinger along with heavy machine guns in attacks on Israeli helicopters during the war in the Gaza Strip. The source said one Stinger surface-to-air missile was launched, but the projectile veered off course and struck a Hamas gunner squad.

Seems the Israelis have stumbled upon a plan to prevent arms smuggling. I don't how they would implement that on firearms but I suppose if anyone can do it, the Jews can.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 05 Apr 2009 17:27

The effect biometrics has on people!
Illegal residents fleeing UAE via Oman's borders

By Bassma Al Jandaly, Staff Reporter
Published: April 04, 2009, 22:46

Dubai: Hundreds of illegal residents are fleeing the country via the UAE-Oman borders to avoid the iris scan, in order for them to return to the UAE, Gulf News learnt.

A police source told Gulf News that some people, who are wanted by police for bounced cheques, unpaid loans and other crimes, are also fleeing the country through the borders.

The source said they are crossing the desert using routes that will lead them to Salalah in Oman.

"After reaching Salalah they head to Yemen," the source said.

The source said some housemaids, workers and other expatriates, who are staying illegally in the country, are doing this to avoid the iris scan and the ban which will prevent them from coming back to the UAE.

He said some wanted people also fled the country in the same way.

"Police in the country are hunting those who are aiding these illegal residents and the criminals, to flee the country," he said.

He said they use four-wheel drive vehicles on their trips to help them through the desert.

"Their outings are dangerous. These agents who help the illegals to flee the country are armed while police and military forces on the border are chasing them which put their lives and the people who are travelling with them at risk," he said.

He said most of the time, the agents dump the infiltrators in the desert after taking their money.

He said they go through deserts from any emirate to reach Salalah which is the nearest area to Yemen on the border with the UAE.

He said they travel at night and it takes them one and a half days to reach Yemen.

Police said the country's borders are tightly monitored to prevent infiltration.

An Ethiopian housemaid who works for a Sudanese family in Sharjah, told Gulf News that she stayed in the UAE illegally for more than ten years before she infiltrated to Oman then to Yemen to avoid the life ban.

"I came to work in the UAE 11 years ago for an Emirati family in Abu Dhabi, but I absconded after two months and I worked for different families for ten years," she said.

She said when she decided to go back to her country, it was hard because her iris scan would be taken and she would be banned from coming back.

"If I had my iris scan that would not help me if I changed my passport in my country in order to come back here because I would be caught upon arrival," she said.

She added that last year she fled the UAE to Yemen then to her home country.

"When we went on our trip, I had an agreement with the people who helped us flee, to pay Dh3,500. We were seven people in one car. All of us were illegals. We were different nationalities. Indians, Filipinos, Ethiopians, Sir Lankans and Afghans."

She said that each one had paid different prices. The Indian woman had paid Dh2,500, some had paid Dh6,000 depending on the period of time they had been here and the cost was higher for wanted people.

She said that at the borders they were chased by police and her friend who was with her was afraid and jumped from the car.

"We had no clue what happened to her but later on we came to know that she died on the spot after jumping from the car," she said.

She said when they reached Yemen, they surrendered to the authorities there.

"The people who took us to Yemen, left us alone but they told us to go to the police and say that we had entered Yemen illegally, that we had no passports and wanted to go to our home countries," she said.

She said the authorities in Yemen questioned them and then deported them back to their countries.

"I changed my passport and I obtained a new employment visa in the UAE," she said.

The housemaid said she is now working legally. She added it was a horrible experience which she could not do again.

Gulf News spoke with senior Interior Ministry officials who did not comment on those who had illegally left the UAE via the land borders.

Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 06 Apr 2009 18:57

If anyone needed clarification on the severe exploitation of Indian workers in Dubai, here it is. Some of you might not trust BBC but give it a shot:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/panorama/hi/front ... 981320.stm

Having spent the last three months travelling there, I no longer think of the seven star Burj Al Arab hotel when I think of Dubai, but of emaciated, wretched men, lining up for buses before the sun has risen, resigned to the fact that their hard day's work wouldn't earn them enough to buy a round of coffee here. The branding of Dubai has to be one of the greatest PR triumphs of the past 20 years.

We looked hard for a single example of good practice on two different developments, interviewing dozens of workers employed by many different companies - some British, some owned by the Dubai government.

But I didn't find a single exception, not one worker who hadn't paid a visa fee, not one who was being well paid (the highest monthly salary I heard of was being paid to a skilled crane operator- approximately £220 ($327) a month), not one who could eat well or was free to go home if he chose to.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 06 Apr 2009 19:10

^^
Everything written in that article is true. It is very difficult to do something against the exploitation of poor Indian immigrant workers in Dubai because in most cases the exploitation begins from India itself and continues through various agents including our very own embassies and consulates. A lot of improvement can be brought about if Indian government can get a bit more involved in the issue, which never happens despite tall promises.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 06 Apr 2009 21:10

I was speaking to a few omani's about this issue, and they were saying the worst offenders are actually Indian companies.

About Maids:
They said that it depends what type of family you end up with, most of the abuse occurs in the working class (poorer) Omani's. The middle/upper class families treat their maids very well, e.g they get free visits to go back home every year or 2, flight tickets paid for. Accomodation, 30 days holidays (Home country holidays like Diwali etc etc plus the local holidays). In ramadhan they might be expected to work extra hours.

Although there are cases where agencies "sell" the labour from Oman to UAE, but the owner is cousin/relative of the minister/official of Labour/interior ministry, so govt doesn't step in.

But this is Oman of course, which is a lot different compared to the other GCC nations.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 06 Apr 2009 21:44

All things said UAE has a reasonably good labour ministry which oversees safety and other rights of the immigrants. The laws are pretty stringent and offending companies can get anything from huge fines to down right revoking of trade license if found guilty. But majority of the labourers being exploited are either in a situation where they cannot lose the existing jobs because of financial commitments or lack awareness about the legal options available to them. A lot more can be done by Indian govt. Employers are also well aware of this lacklusture support from Indian embassies and Indian immigrants are treated with disdain. The aggrieved labourers end up running to and forth between Indian embassy and UAE labour ministry due to babudom and many are forced to suffer silently.

KrishnaMu · Post by **KrishnaMu** » 07 Apr 2009 02:09

UAE whole middle east has under ground slavery market from Indian-subcontinent. I strongly believe they will be building huge building entire with Slave labour. Its disgrace people with low-skilled will lured into this ponzi slavery scheme by agents in India and once they arrive the reality on the ground is very difficult.

BBC panorama has exclusive today.

Instead, on arriving in Dubai they are met with shanty town conditions hidden from public view. In a country that penalises journalists reporting stories which negatively reflect the economy or insult the government with massive fines and in the past even imprisonment, Panorama had to maintain a low profile.

Average salaries are often no more than £120 a month. This for a six-day week, often working up to 12 hour shifts. One company paid approximately 30 pence an hour for overtime.

Documents obtained by Panorama showed that a month previous to the programme's visit, the Dubai authorities described the sewage situation at the site critical. Arabtec had been fined 10,000 dirhams, approximately £2,000, for allowing sewage to overflow into workers' accommodati

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcbT4tFa104[/youtube]

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 07 Apr 2009 02:54

I watched it an hour ago. The conditions were horrific and the firm in question was fined Dhs 10,000 (Roughly £2000). However, this isn't the first time this has been highlighted. At the end of the day, the Indian agents are luring the people with guarentees of big money and they need to be stopped as well. (There is a tamil film that highlighted the issue many years back now. It starred Vadivelu and Parthiban. The comedy was excellent).

check out Mafiwasta about the Dubai situation (press stories, numerous journal reports etc etc). Wasta(arabic for who you know/influence etc)

Some saudi manpower agency charges workers a recruitment fee, the company who receives the manpower also charges the workers(sometimes double the first salary). If no one pays the company, the local gangster will pay family members a visit.

Nesoj · Post by **Nesoj** » 07 Apr 2009 23:31

It's a dog's life for some Indian expats in Dubai
http://news.webindia123.com/news/Articl ... 19426.html
.......
Venu Rajamony, the Indian Consul-General in Dubai, said the consulate was not aware of the problem of this specific group.
.......

see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil ...... that's our 'Indian Consolate' policy

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Apr 2009 19:11

Saudis also dismayed by Obama's seeming tolerance of nuclear Iran

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Apr 2009 21:04

ShyamD read the x-post below...

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10202

A review of President Obama's trip to Europe with Zbigniew Brzezinski & Henry Kissinger
with Zbigniew Brzezinski and Henry Kissinger
in Current Affairs
on Monday, April 6, 2009

Kissinger throwing up red herrings re differences vis-a-vis Bush vs Obama. Unhelpful and fell flat.

Ziggie was more poignant and strategically cogent. And rational re nuclear proliferation.

As stated elsewhere, the nuclear genii is out of the bottle. N. Korea cum Iran validates that. Paradoxically, the world will last (a little) longer if we restrain our arrogance to militarily remove any country’s quest for nuclear (parity?) capability. Notwithstanding the Jewish and Israeli desire to have the US do just that - Iran’s in particular. Ziggie pointed out that even if the Israeli’s did just that, the US will pay the price (as well).

The Af-Pak evolving quagmire is going to suck our moral, physical and financial well being down even further than our own financial wise-guys have managed to do. (They've made bin Laden proud.) Defense Secretary Gates budget request adds drone missile firing capability as a major factor in the on-going depravity in Pakistan. We are creating enemies (a la Iraq). The terror reined on mud-hut villagers could only be devised by a CS, arrogant bunch of M-I profiteers and lobbyists hell-bent on recruiting (thus sustaining) a never-ending conflict.

Pakistan’s India and internal conflicts will occupy them. N. Korea is an equal-opportunity powder keg - if not more so - so why Pakistan? Other than we’re already committed and too puerile and vain to change course.

It’s Obama’s war now. And he will fail miserably on this point as well as the financial mess. [He will attempt to bail out the big banks - which is exactly what should NOT happen.] Rewarding the CEOs of Citibank et al is as perverse as giving Charles Manson equivalent accoutrements. It's sick and perpetuates the systemic greed for gluttony and serotonin release for the wise-guys ad nauseum - at the world's expense.

-------
I think the Iranians have the maal. Its from PRC. The fingerprint is all those AQK designs to cover up the transfer. If US had attacked before November the Iranians would have shown their hand. Now its back to lurk mode and prepare the world for a Shiaised Iran as a nuke power. BTW, it took 1300 years for the Persians to shake of Arabic meme finally. Its how long it took after the fall of Sasinids.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 08 Apr 2009 23:17

Interesting indeed. Iran-PRC have had close co-operation with regards to Long range missile's.

The maal is certainly there. Debka was saying that decision time was in Feb to launch the strike, after which Iran is ready. Are you saying that maal was present in Nov 08?

Ref previous post from IOL:

Mossad and Aman dispute each other about Iranian capability. Israeli mili intel now believes, Iran has the tech, knowhow materials and equipment to produce a nuclear weapon. Mossad is in charge of preventing the Iranians getting the bomb.

A military strike against Iran’s nuclear sites as advocated by Dagan is now more remote than ever according to IOL.

Meir Dagan still convinced that they can stop Iran from going nuclear via covert ops. He isn't sure if Netanyahu will keep him in his job.

When dagan took office in 2003, he told his senior mossad boys in their first meeting, that his number one aim is to stop iran going nookleaar. He said his failure or success will be judged by this.

NK nook test worked? Same with recent satellite launch? Both times US media said it was a failure.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 09 Apr 2009 04:15

Round up of news:

Ouch! Things not going well for the Dubai leader. His wife also could be involved in this.
Sheikh Mohammed accepts blame after horses fail dope tests

To things a bit more serious.

Add Kuwait to the list of possible Security agreements (Oman and Qatar confirmed, by next year I think UAE and possibly Kuwait in 2 years or less). I think India should sign the intelligence sharing agreement, believe it or not Kuwait does have many intel info that can be offered to India. I think it might also impact financial support for terror against India, if we play the cards right.

India-Kuwait entente seen

Atul Aneja

Positive outcome from Vice-President’s visit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ready to consider aspects of counter-terrorism

Support for Obama reaching out to Iran

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KUWAIT CITY: India and Kuwait have aligned their perceptions on the global economic slowdown and the regional tensions generated in the Gulf nation’s volatile neighbourhood.

Diplomatic sources said that during Vice-President M. Hamid Ansari’s three-day visit here that concluded on Wednesday, the Kuwaiti side said it favoured long-term stability in oil prices.

Kuwait was of the view that a return to the surging oil prices of the past would deepen the global recession, and that was not in the long-term interest of the oil-producing nations.

On the contrary, analysts say oil prices ruling below the $55-a-barrel mark would discourage investments needed to keep up the production of oil, the demand for which would return strongly once the recession was over.

Lower oil prices would especially hamper deep-sea oil exploration, which required heavy investments.

On Iran

Iran, Gulf security and terrorism featured prominently in the talks. On Iran, Kuwait was of the view that it was better to engage with Iran rather than pursue a path of confrontation, the sources said. (Funnily, these were the same people who allowed the Israeli's to use their airspace to attack Iran) Consequently, Kuwait is supporting the recent attempt by U.S. President Barack Obama to reach out to Iran. (Do you have a choice?)

Kuwait hoped that the situation in neighbouring Iraq would stabilise, despite the declaration by the Americans that they would exit from Iraq and step up their force strength in Afghanistan. Through its high-capacity port facilities, Kuwait could help in transiting Indian goods into Iraq.

Both sides expressed concern over the destabilising impact of terrorism. The sources said the two countries were ready to consider all aspects related to counter-terrorism, including intelligence-sharing. (Excellent News)

Maritime security

Discussions were held on ensuring maritime security that would allow unimpeded transit of oil tankers carrying crude from the Gulf towards India. The sources said these talks were held in the larger context of Gulf security that would involve all the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman. (Hint Hint!)

During the Vice President’s visit, Kuwait expressed its commitment to invest in India’s infrastructure, especially in power distribution, airport and port development projects.

Modest investments

Kuwait’s Finance Minister and the head of the Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) told Mr. Ansari that Kuwait had already made modest portfolio investments in India.

The sources said Kuwait has shown greater inclination to invest in India after Kuwaiti investors lost heavily on their real estate investments, especially in the neighbouring recession-hit Gulf countries.

Possible Yindu naval presence in the offing?
From another article:

Larger engagement

Mr. Ansari’s presence in Kuwait was part of India’s larger engagement with the Gulf, the sources said. His visit has been preceded by the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Oman and gas-rich Qatar. Three Indian naval ships recently concluded their visits to Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates, the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas and Oman.

Soon after his arrival, Mr. Ansari held talks with Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah. He will call on the Kuwaiti Emir on Tuesday.

Energy security

An official accompanying the Vice-President acknowledged that notwithstanding efforts to diversify ties, energy security remained the pivot of the Indo-Kuwait relationship. Recently, the Indian Oil Corporation renewed its contract to purchase nine million metric tonnes of crude and around 351 trillion cubic meters of gas from Kuwait.

India is now looking for investments from the Kuwait Petroleum International in the petrochemical sector, while India could participate in fertilizer projects in Kuwait. Petroleum Secretary, R.S. Pandey, who is part of the visiting delegation, began talks on Monday with his Kuwaiti counterpart to identify specific projects.

Given the importance of energy security, the safety of sea lanes used by Kuwaiti oil tankers has emerged as an area of interest. “Maritime security is of interest to both sides and will be discussed over the next two days,” said the sources. Mr. Ansari is slated to hold talks with Kuwait’s acting Prime Minister and Defence Minister Sheikh Jaber Mubarak Al Hamad Al Sabah on Tuesday. A Kuwaiti defence delegation recently visited the Air Force Academy, the National Defence College and a prominent naval establishment to explore possibilities of multi-level military exchanges with India.

Looks like GCC are going to sign individual agreements with India rather than an India-GCC security agreement. I think this is a response to the nooklearisation of Eye-ran.

Quote from another article in the Hindu:

Diplomatic sources told The Hindu that substantial discussions were held on the necessity of attacking global terrorism networks. The situation in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan were also discussed in depth.

The vice president did deny that "focus of ties is not on military".

India to revive West Asia pipeline plan

A proposed pipeline that would transport gas from Iran through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India has run into problems because of the escalating internal crisis in Pakistan

New Delhi: With a pair of planned transnational gas pipelines entangled in geopolitical knots, the government is reviving a 10-year-old private sector proposal for an under-sea gas pipeline linking West Asia with India, seeking to plug a chronic demand-supply gap, said two senior government officials associated with the process.
The $3 billion (Rs15,150 crore), 2,000km pipeline has been proposed by South Asia Gas Enterprise Pvt. Ltd (SAGE), a special project vehicle set up as an equal joint venture between the Siddhomal group, an Indian firm, and UK-based Deep Water Technology Co.
A meeting has been scheduled on Thursday between SAGE and the ministry of petroleum and natural gas to discuss the project in detail.
A proposed pipeline that would transport gas from Iran through Afghanistan and Pakistan to India has run into problems because of the escalating internal crisis in Pakistan—which has made it difficult to guarantee the safety of such assets—and a deterioration in relations between New Delhi and Islamabad.
“We are looking at this route to bring gas to India. The talks are at a preliminary stage,” said a top petroleum ministry official, who did not want to be named. The second project that has been stuck is a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline.
According to initial plans, the pipeline proposed by SAGE will originate from Oman and will end either in Gujarat or Maharashtra. For the gas to be routed to Oman from Qatar and Iran, an additional infrastructure investment of $3 billion is envisaged, a SAGE official said. Gas sourced through this will carry an additional transportation tariff, which will accrue to SAGE.
“The challenges of economics and geography in setting up this pipeline is huge. It will be difficult to implement,” said a Delhi-based energy sector analyst, who did not want to be named because of commercial considerations. “There will be problems.”
It will take five years for the project to be completed and it will have a capacity of 31.1 million standard cubic metres of gas a day (mscmd). The expected transportation tariff from the project is $1.8 per million British thermal units (mBtu). Currently, natural gas is priced at $4.4-$4.5 per mBtu in the international market.
“For (the) Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline and (the) Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, there are issues beyond price,” said a senior official at the external affairs ministry, who didn’t want to be named. “Here, the issue is political uncertainty, which may affect the pipeline security.”
“Iran is a less complicating factor than Pakistan,” this official added. “India can now afford a really independent policy in Iran post the nuclear deal (with the US). This pipeline will be cheaper than LNG (liquefied natural gas). While the idea was being promoted 10 years back, it has now found favour.”
The project needs the support of the Indian government to become reality. “Transnational gas pipeline projects are politically and logistically challenging. They take several years to develop, with the blessings and support of all concerned, including the local governments, in order to become a reality,” said Subodh Kumar Jain, director of SAGE, in an emailed response to Mint queries.
India imports around 26mscmd of LNG. The country is short on natural gas, which is expected to last till 2012. It needs around 180mscmd, while the supply is 106mscmd.
“An international SPV (special purpose vehicle) will be formed for implementation of the project... This pipeline would be designed and built by an international consortium. Global consortium members include (deep-water pipeline specialists) Heerema Marine Contractors and Intecsea,” Jain added.
According to a report by management consulting firm AT Kearney Inc., demand for gas in India will continue to exceed supply from domestic sources and imported gas will play an important role in bridging the demand-supply gap in the Indian market.