Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

[brihaspati]

Corruption is really limited by the amount of resources one can manage to give as bribes. We have to remember, that the spectacular examples of corruption we are discussing here usually are restricted to a very small portion of the entire population, who have the minimal resources to pay the asked for "fee". I have travelled almost all over India over a period of almost 15 years, and mostly by train, (but also on foot, horseback, "khacchar-back", bicycles, boats, buses, jeeps etc). Trains were great illuminators of the nature of corruption for very obvious reasons - as monetary transactions take place at every stage. I found that the poorest were the least corrupt, simply because on the one hand they did not deal with large amounts of money to transact, and on the other hand, because of generation spanning poverty and that much reviled "philosophical/cultural/faith" based self-corrections. It was almost always those in "power", those in authority and rank, those who were better paid, who indulged and demanded "corruption".

Once in an area, which had only recently been exempted from the inner-line permit, I came across a couple who had been sitting for the whole day at a businessman's gaddi. They had been loaned a heifer, to graze and bring up, (and that one has had a calf), in some complicated oral contract by the businessman. The businessman was now showing that they were only entitled to a pittance, and the couple could not understand any of the calculations. I could see that the couple was actually being cheated out of a substantial amount of money or compensation even as per the terms of the contract. I have spent more time among so-called "marginal populations" than the urbans, and I can say with some degree of confidence, that the vast majority of the country, who are poor, are not corrupt.

There is a whole set of social forces that encourage and maintain corruption. Why exempt all the family members or relatives or peers who pressurize the "earner" for the "goodies", or who indirectly make display of wealth the sole criteria for social esteem? Whom have I found most corrupt? With maybe some possible exceptions at the top of religious orders, I found corruption most common in people who did not have any strong ideological or faith commitment. A sense of mission, and dedication, comes from a sense of a "higher purpose" which can provide inner strength to resist "temptation" and if needed go against immediate social circles to preserve principles.

Certain systems and services need, "missionary" attitudes - like hospitals and health services, education. At least for hospitals, a lot could be improved even with the money now being spent, if GOI took up complete responsibility for all medical education and contractually ensure that such medical students will be bound to serve the country as the system requires them to. To facilitate this, all supportive measures, administrative, financial and security wise should also be provided to the doctors. But at the top of each hospital should perhaps be a no-nosense administrator, maybe from ex-army background, with all powers given (and backed up with authority) to suspend, fire, and hire without recourse to judicial interference. If staff refuse to cooperate, the GOI should be prepared to hire from outside, and at the same time prevent those who refuse to cooperate to seel opportunities outside the country. The message should be clear, that the country is prepared to give the highest it can afford within the levels of economy permitted and highest of social esteem , but in return, dedication and performance has to be delivered.

In an electoral system, this can be taken to the people, who will be the majority to benefit from such reforms, to electorally strengthen the hand of the givernment to carry out these reforms which will be unpleasant to a few among the "professionals".

[RamaY]

Pranav,
Here I would just like to say that MMS is having a tough time not to accommodate Baalu and Raja, so how can corruption go?

If the CBI cannot take Quatrochhi (spelling!), Mayawati, Mulayam and Lallu to the courts, how will corruption vanish?

If to be declared a Below Poverty Line person requires one to share the booty before one is registered, how can corruption go?

If the country was ideal, then things I am sure would be different.

MMS being a gentleman and a honest person, why is he even tolerating such ideas?

Intellectual corruption is worse than material corruption.

After this elections MMS's USP has grown exponentially. Why can't he resign from PM position in protest and see everyone kissing his feet and accept his conditions?

Imagine MMS + Antony + Diggy Raja and other so-called honest/high-integrity people do that in sync and one can get some traction to the anti-corruption action plan.

On the other hand we have the same MMS rediculing the "get-the-swiss-bank-money" idea and underplaying the amount went out of the country in the past 40-50 years.

[samuel]

We have several competing objectives within the sub-continent:

1. Secure PoK/NA. Strengthen relationship with hinterland. Strengthen energy connection to CAR.
2. Remain competitive with Chinese advances. Break the necklace. Ensure a stable buffer exists with China.
3. Maintain primacy in IOR and air superiority.
4. Develop and maintain a splendid relationship with all neighbors. Ensure a stable buffer exists between India and countries west of Sindhu.

I ignore from this list issues of reform, of equal importance, that others are better equipped to discuss.

What is the best prioritization of these goals, and if they are all interconnected, what are nearly optimal, if not optimal, strategies to accomplish them? What is the differential that we must enjoy to accomplish them? At what rate can we grow to acquire the differential?

S

[RayC]

The question is what is need to get that done? How much of it is military and how much of it is influence and how much of it is manipulation. Perhaps the armed forces my propose occupation of a slim tract of Pakistan to achieve this object and that that is what becomes the bargaining chip.

RamaT

Good question.

What do you propose that should be done and how will you achieve capturing the whole of POK and NA with the military organisation that you have, the finance available to the country and the time that will be there 15 to 21 days before the international powers bring pressure to halt the war?

[RamaY]

What do you propose that should be done and how will you achieve capturing the whole of POK and NA with the military organisation that you have, the finance available to the country and the time that will be there 15 to 21 days before the international powers bring pressure to halt the war?

I will direct my defence, scientific, economic, and foriegn relations council to give me a report on the cost (human/equipment/monitory/Foregin Relations) and recommendations to prepare for such eventuality in 3 months. The scientific, economic and FR wings will have 3 years to prepare everything the defence wing needs. The defence will have to give me a clear strategy to the minutest detail on how they plan to achieve this objective.

The 15-21 day was concept is meaningless IMO. Did Iraq war end in 20 days? Did Afghan war end in 20 days? Did WOT finish in 20 days?

My direction to the defence wing will be to achieve the object. I will not give them any schedule. If they can achieve it 15-21 days, that is good. I do not give a damn to the opinion of international community when it comes to my national security. At the same time, I will be open for a peace deal that gives me unconditional control over POK/NA in return for stopping the demolition activities across the border by indian armed forces.

Leadership RayC-ji, leadership is what is needed here. Equipment, money, people will follow that. If the leadership is happy with what they have (India is a large country, India is a growing power, India has 300 million people living in poverty, India needs this and that before protecting borders is a nonsense logic at best IMO), then the blame stops there.

[RayC]

The 15-21 day was concept is meaningless IMO. Did Iraq war end in 20 days? Did Afghan war end in 20 days? Did WOT finish in 20 days?

RamaY,

Check how the wars we have fought so far got stopped. That is why 15 to 21 days stretched to a month, maybe.

Theoretically, your idea is good.

But it is estimated by experts (civilians, if you will) that the Indian economy can sustain a high intensity war for about a month.

It is good that you suggest that one should not bother about international opinion, but somehow the international opinion does matter to those who run this country and hopefully they know what they are doing.

US carries on its war since none can influence her. In fact, the invasion of Iraq was not quite in order as the UN had not given the mandate they were seeking.

I would not get into the issue of there being no leadership in this country in any field. If you feel so, then you are entitled to that view.

[RamaY]

The 15-21 day was concept is meaningless IMO. Did Iraq war end in 20 days? Did Afghan war end in 20 days? Did WOT finish in 20 days?

RamaY,

Check how the wars we have fought so far got stopped. That is why 15 to 21 days stretched to a month, maybe.

Theoretically, your idea is good.

But it is estimated by experts (civilians, if you will) that the Indian economy can sustain a high intensity war for about a month.

There are two parts to the war Ray-C sar. The war itself which is followed by the occupation (incase of an external power), assimmilation (in our case).

I agree with you on the war portion. If my armed forces achieve the war portion, our nation can easily sustain that cost. We can definitely do a detailed study on that and I am open to work with you on that offline.

The cost of assimmilation is part of nation building and protecting our borders. I would separate this cost from the war.

I think our inability to think beyond the costs lies in the idea Shiv-ji posted in the previous page (every profession thinks and protects its caste). The defence wing talks about its costs and its benefits but misses to present the opportunity costs, that I outlined earlier, as part of the analaysis. The armed forces think it is out of scope for them and is part of political analysis. Political analysts THINK armed forces are not ready. Politicians are happy that they do not have to do anything that risks their reelection.

It is the Indian public, including the millions who lack all the things we often discuss, who pays the rent, get replaced within their country, and/or get killed in terrorist attacks. And we blame it on them for not electing a nationalistic leader, and for not having enough money to pay for the real estate once and for all.

[RamaY]

And how do the colleges make money? "Donations" of course. An old old and very dear childhood friend of mine is a successful doctor in Pune - he has literally made crores and has several local corporators "in his pocket". He paid a donation of Rs 15 lakhs to gain admission for one child of his into a dental college in Karnataka.

Very common story shiv-ji. I am sure everyone on BRF have someone in their family or in friend circle who fits your story.

There are two problems in your story.

The first one is about the education system. How come you crorepathi friend didn't try to send his son to one of the CBSE type schools, which ensure that his kid not only passes the exams but also gets sufficiently prepared for entrance exams such as medical and engineering exams? Do these CBSE type schools provide better education or they just pass every student that goes thru their building?

Second issue is about individual decision making. Does your friend expect his doctor son (with boughtup seat) to practice medicine on patients once he comes out of medical school? If the answer is YES, that means your crorepathi friend is well aware of the capability of the medical school and his son (capabilitywise) to produce a well-trained doctor at the end of the school. It is the entrance-exam process that your friend is trying to surpass.

If the answer is NO, and your friend is expecting his son to get better dowry and look after some business, then there is no harm in what he did in my opinion. In the worst case scenario, an honest student is losing opportunity to go to medical school. We don't need to worry about it because we are talking about a school which collects 15Lakhs to make a business-doctor out of some dumbhead.

The reality IMO, lies in between. I think your crorepathi friend knows that his son, after obtaining a purchased medical degree, will be able to start a corporate hospital with monetary help from in-laws . If you ask me, we need such capable corporate minded doctors and I am glad our system has a career-path for that. And, I am not joking about this statement.

[RamaY]

It is good that you suggest that one should not bother about international opinion, but somehow the international opinion does matter to those who run this country and hopefully they know what they are doing.

This is the crux of the problem RayC-saar. All those locked threads were attempting to discuss this very issue.

Our current political, social, civilizational, and military leadership thinks they know what they are doing. But somehow:

* They think it is okay to have a terrorist attack somewhere in the country once in a month. They think it is ok for two motorists to shoot two police officers in day-light (in Hyderabad, last week) and send an email naming a fake islamist organization.

* They think it is okay to have our court system to drag each and every case for years and decades without any meaningful verdict.

* They think it is okay to have a maoist guerially force havine influence over 100+ districts for more than 20-30 years.

* They think it is okay for this nation to have a pathatic education system that is corrupted, and non-effective producing millions of worth-less graduates.

* They think it is okay to have a state of their nation to have special status. Why cant other states have that special status?

* They think it is okay to have >300 million people living under poverty line.

We all know this is BS. That is why I think our leadership is wrong about the concept of international community and their opinion. What did this international opinion do in

- Rwanda
- Sudan
- Ethiopia
- Somalia
- Afghanistan (under taliban rule)
- Pakistan (under any rule)
- PRC

Please note that none of these nations are a super power, including PRC when they did what they did.

[shiv]

The reality IMO, lies in between. I think your crorepathi friend knows that his son, after obtaining a purchased medical degree, will be able to start a corporate hospital with monetary help from in-laws . If you ask me, we need such capable corporate minded doctors and I am glad our system has a career-path for that. And, I am not joking about this statement.

The son has settled down in the UK.

People without crores cannot afford seats and we have at the other end "good students" with MBBS degrees who cannot afford to bribe their way into the few PG seats available and are employed for Rs 10,000 a month by these "super-duper" entrepreneur' doctors busy raking in money for papa.

The system is bulsh1t despite the rationalization. The issue of course is nobody gives a damn for PoK, CAS and all those hi falutin things that will require "national effort" when crores can be made right here by cheating someone or the other.

As long as people find excuses to say how garbage is good we are reminded that we are in India with Indians who traditionally talk like garbage can somehow be good.

[ramana]

shiv, Please dont bring in discussion of corruption etc into this thread. All those are well beaten tracks to be explored in the General Discussion Forum. (GDF)

Thanks, ramana

[shiv]

shiv, Please dont bring in discussion of corrunption etc into this thread. All those are well beaten tracks to be explored in the General Discussion Forum. (GDF)

Thanks, ramana

Ramana I will stop bringing that in because you requested it. Not because it is not relevant. After a time it gets tiresome to see wild plans being considered without even a hint of acknowledgment of what needs doing in india, followed by blame being placed on all the wrong factors when things do not pan out that way. If teh recent election results were a surprise to anyone - it is because of a misreading of India. And a miseading of India is going on in this thread.

The so called "corruption discussion" stated with my response to brihaspatis talk about a "controlling" group and "commons" . I just fleshed that out. What you seem to be hinting at is that as long as problems are kept as hints and nuances it is fine. I will state my disagreement with that view. We are discussing India and India's capabilities - not that of lala land.

We had a whole series of thread locked to narrow the discussion down to areas that cause the least takleef to a narrow set of opinions. Recall that this forum has discussed the US elections in detail. We always shy away from talking about difficult topics about India.

[RamaY]

We had a whole series of thread locked to narrow the discussion down to areas that cause the least takleef to a narrow set of opinions. Recall that this forum has discussed the US elections in detail. We always shy away from talking about difficult topics about India.

I agree with you on everything you have said shiv-ji!

We must not rationalize any issue by bringing other distantly-related issues. Unfortunately we have many threads locked and all these issues are inter-related. The problem stems from the fact that our nation lost its soul and it is not allowed to seek its soul in the fear of the consequences. Let it be so!

The comedy is that this nation elects its PM on the plank of personal honesty, integrity, and intellectuality. And that person didn't promise restoration of law-and-order, or tackling corruption (swiss bank money), or defence preparedness, or revamping education system as the top priority in the first 100 days of his 2nd term. He promissed to bring economy back on tracks in his 100 days. This shows his tunnel vision and expertise - economy. Let us pray god and wish our PM well so he delivers on his promise. At least he promissed to solve one of the 2,39,48,20,34,98,234 problems india has. 9 days gone and 91 days to go.

I support your thought that all these problems are interlinked and must be discussed so. I think it will make this discussion lively and complete. Please let your thoughts flow (ofcourse with the permission of moderators)

[raji]

shiv, Please dont bring in discussion of corrunption etc into this thread. All those are well beaten tracks to be explored in the General Discussion Forum. (GDF)

Thanks, ramana

Ramana I will stop bringing that in because you requested it. Not because it is not relevant. After a time it gets tiresome to see wild plans being considered without even a hint of acknowledgment of what needs doing in india, followed by blame being placed on all the wrong factors when things do not pan out that way. If teh recent election results were a surprise to anyone - it is because of a misreading of India. And a miseading of India is going on in this thread.

The so called "corruption discussion" stated with my response to brihaspatis talk about a "controlling" group and "commons" . I just fleshed that out. What you seem to be hinting at is that as long as problems are kept as hints and nuances it is fine. I will state my disagreement with that view. We are discussing India and India's capabilities - not that of lala land.

We had a whole series of thread locked to narrow the discussion down to areas that cause the least takleef to a narrow set of opinions. Recall that this forum has discussed the US elections in detail. We always shy away from talking about difficult topics about India.

I think you are facing the wrath, Shiv, for my doing.

It is I who keeps bringing up the corruption issue, not even you or Brihispati.

I will keep bringing it up, as long as I think it is relevent to the topic at hand, and unfortunately, trust me, it pains me enormously to admit it, but unfortunately, all issues that confront India go back to this root cause. No strategic discussion can be complete without discussing corruption, and having this 500 pound gorilla in the room.

The only meaningful discussion we can have is how we change ourselves as a people. We cannot change others. We can only force others to negotiate with us and they will only negotiate with us, when and if we are in a position of strength, or else they will ignore us or laugh at us. In order to attain a position of strength, we only have the power to change ourselves, not others.

Blaming others all the time, or making fun of others, or being virulant with others is just rants, or a cathartic outlet of frustrations......both of which are far far less productive than self criticism and finding ways to change ourselves.

"Look at the man in the mirror".........

[svinayak]

Actually we have several threads on corruption.
When ever it is relevant please quote the link from that thread to this thread. That way we dont clutter this thread. The corruption line of thought has its own process and analysis. It needs a separate thread.

[RayC]

All i would say is that one must look at the bigger picture and not only on a narrow spectrum.

One could say that we should capture the world and why not? But then.....

One has to look at things as to what we can and what we cannot and our internal infirmities that prevent us from pursuing our national interest.

[Atri]

I propose categorizing the "Future" we are discussing about..

1. Scenario A - 5 - 10 years from now - Here we can discuss everything about our current capabilities, proposed capabilities and assets which are currently in pipeline and will be ready for usage on tactical level in the given time-frame, our immediate goals that can be realistically met in 5-10 years from now, situations that can realistically arise 5-10 years from now..

2. Scenario B - From 10 years to 25-30 years from now.. Here, we can discuss the slightly longer versions of conflicts with all their subtle undercurrents which might arise in terms of international geo-politics. For example, the new great game, quest of controlling CAR etc.

3. Scenario C - 30-40 years and beyond - Here we can discuss the clash of memes, civilizations and other related ideas which influence the world in profound, yet subtle manner... All the discussions about resurgence of Bhaaratiya civilization and related stuff should come under scenario C.

Unless we do this, such conflicts are bound to happen.. If every post describes initially, with respect to which scenario and time-frame it is referring to, the modelling and the predictions will be much more defined and user-friendly..

Regards

[brihaspati]

Actually, all the problems of resourcing any military action, internal development and improvement of quality of life, economic progress, and military and political will are interrelated and interdependent. We will make mistakes if we separate them out on their own and treat them as stand alone issues.

I think, along tkme ago, in this thread, I had suggested that since war was an extension of politics, broad military objectives should be set, and the military asked what they need to achieve it. These resources then should be provided, and details of tactics should not be intervened into and left for the military experts to achieve. The political leadership should simply ask the military to deliver once they themselves have delivered.

This makes it more important for the political strategist to clearly have a vision of what they want. This (a) starts with political aims and objectives definitely, but to a certain extent (b) has to go down to geostrategic and military level. Historically, and out of necessity, regular military is trained to obey and follow plans. With some leeway for innovation on spot, securing preset tactical objectives are however the primary mindset. Such a mindset has to train to optimize based on current resources and knowledge, and they cannot indulge in projections long into the future and explore possibilities for the future. This is the reason, only a combination of political vision properly interacting with experinced military can provide the right set of looking towards the future, creating and defining objectives, and implementing such visions within the common sense and experience of the military is best suited for long term scenarios. Emphasizing only the political or only the militarist viewpoint is self-defeating.

The fact is that, because of the interlinked nature of development and military capabilities, both have to be looked into simultaneously. Sometime ago, I had raised the question of, why in spite of the thousands of "brains" we turn out every year, we cannot use them to develop things that took Americans say 50 years, in 5 years, at 1/10th the cost. Ship building was once the historical forte of India, but now we do not even think of building our own carriers. These industries themselves can push through a lot of other innovations in turn. There is no question that it needs a lot funds, but can such funds be a problem if we can control the crores of crores of scam money siphoned off from giovernment expenditure. In proportion to "black money" or the "offshore accounts" how much will the "defence" guzzle? Why should this excuse be given again and again that we have no resources to fund indigenous research and expansion?

What some of us here have tried to do is set the political side of aim formation with respect to geo-strategic future of India. Too much has been attempted to read into the micro-management and implementation of those aims, partly by mistaking the geo-strategic details an issue of contention and feasibility. But those details should be taken as the part (b) mentioned, above - that of going down to a certain extent into details at military-strategic level. This is an attempt to flesh out where things can go wrong, and how both the political-strategic thinking and the military strategic thinking can interact with each other to shape up a realizable possibility.

Crossing glaciers is not an easy job. And anyone with interest are welcome to try it with a 30 kilo pack on back. At certain times we had to carry 50 kilos. All glaciers are different from each other, not all travel at the same rate, and some are more dangerous than the others. At different regions in the glacier, teh nature of the ice changes. In certain parts you simply go up and down within very short horizontal range, whereas at others crevasses are serious obstacles. Supplying equipment and keeping them working is not easy at all. The temperature and other conditions make most equipment intransigent. Also people sometimes do not realize that ice and glaciers are almost living entities, they change conditions dramatically and dangerously.

However, if occupation of POK is found to be politically necessary, we have options of not having to cross this terrain directly. A far easier political and military objective will be to move west and pretend to move east of Kashmir and HP into Chinese occupied territory. A pretension of build up to this eastern direction will draw out the PRC troops and formations. While the easier NW direction across the entrance to the valley further south-and west is achievable, provided it is covered under an expeditionary move to either help the Afghan government or prevent Talebs from pouring into the valley. How to create such an excuse is perhas not for this open thread. Once the entrance to the valley from TSP is secured, existing infrastructure built by the PRC comes in handy to move forward. But the whole thing also needs a much more pretended build up further east - in NE India, around PRC berthing facilities in the IO, and possibly a couple of nuke capable fleet off the coast of PRC - although it may not be necessary.


In fact the more PRC spends on building military infrastructure in thes areas, the better. They will all come in useful.

[svinayak]

All i would say is that one must look at the bigger picture and not only on a narrow spectrum.
One could say that we should capture the world and why not? But then.....
One has to look at things as to what we can and what we cannot and our internal infirmities that prevent us from pursuing our national interest.

Still India needs a grand strategy during peace times which takes care of the entire world and all major powers and nationalities. India is 20% of the world population

[svinayak]

However, if occupation of POK is found to be politically necessary, we have options of not having to cross this terrain directly. A far easier political and military objective will be to move west and pretend to move east of Kashmir and HP into Chinese occupied territory. A pretension of build up to this eastern direction will draw out the PRC troops and formations. While the easier NW direction across the entrance to the valley further south-and west is achievable, provided it is covered under an expeditionary move to either help the Afghan government or prevent Talebs from pouring into the valley. How to create such an excuse is perhas not for this open thread. Once the entrance to the valley from TSP is secured, existing infrastructure built by the PRC comes in handy to move forward. But the whole thing also needs a much more pretended build up further east - in NE India, around PRC berthing facilities in the IO, and possibly a couple of nuke capable fleet off the coast of PRC - although it may not be necessary.


In fact the more PRC spends on building military infrastructure in thes areas, the better. They will all come in useful.

One Chinese poster in BR posted a likely strategy by PRC/PLA. First move is to amass troops in AP in NE to draw Indian divisions to the NE.

Then focus in Aksai Chin and thrust forward towards POK and link up with PAkistan Army. This seems to be the most logical strategy if they look at the map from their side of the border.

[brihaspati]

This is good then. We let them think that we are falling into their trap, by pretending massive deployment, as I have suggested, in far NE.

[raji]

The reason corruption keeps coming up is because everytime we discuss any strategic scenario the limitations of resources come up as a serious constraint.

Well, if we are short of money, why are we tolerating corruption, not hammering on this theme all the time, and just basically being apologists for it and wanna sweep it under the rug ? Other than the moral aspect, as a practical thing, corruption is inefficient and drains already scarce resources.

To answer Brhaspiti's question, why we cant build things sooner than what it took the West.......my answer......corruption........which leads us to not build strong institutions or weaken existing institutions and to build anything we require institutionalized work, not individual effort. No wonder then that leaving aside ships and aircraft carriers, Indians have not engineered anything in the consumer arena which they can compete internationally with (I mean hardware). Even the Tata Nano is only expected to have domestic appeal and in some standard importers of Indian goods such as Nigeria and Mozambique, perhaps some in Yemen.

Take even our successes. Let us say that the first working version of the V6 rocket came out in Germany in even 1935. (I think it came out much later, but lets say 1935). Within 20 years of that, both the Americans and the Russians had launched rockets into space. Within 25 years, there were manned space flights. Within 30 years, probes and people were orbitting the moon and within 35 years, there was a manned mission to the moon. If you take 1969 moon mission as a base, how long has it taken us to do a manned mission to the moon ? It has already been 40 years and it will take at least 10 more for China and 20 more for us. Brihispati, what are you talking about ? Faster than the West ? How about the same pace as the West ? Hell, I will settle for 50% slower than the West. All the excuses people will give in response to this, such as "we are a poor country", "resource poor", "we focused more on green revolution", "public health", "public education" (by the way, what public education ????).......all of these will be the same, standard excuses along with the perennial excuse (population)..........all these excuses will be the same for why we couldnt develop a world class watch, or a world class car, or a world class assault rifle, or a world class any damn thing.......how about radar technologies ? fighter aircrafts ? combat helicopters ?? All our so called "brains" are assisting the West developing these.......why not India......lemme give you a clue......corruption and as a result non-existence of efficient organizations(institutions) to build these things.......if only you could pay off a piece of metal to make it fly a combat mission or to fire on target efficiently, Indians would be world champions........but when it comes to true collective effort.........we are zilch.......

I would grant, grudgingly though, that yeah, at least we were able to build our nuclear program and our missile program although much later than others...........but even there we are in the same league as North Korea, Pak and Iran, and at best Israel (although I doubt it)........not US, Russia or China.......

[brihaspati]

When Germans developed their V, they were independent, and had not really been exploited as a colony for hundreds of years. Please also research a bit about the role of American financiers in the rise of Hitler. The quick jump that the Russians and Americans made in "rocket science" was from wholesale looting of brains and technology from defeated Germany. A part of the brains that went behind the "indigenous" development of US nuke came from expatriate German brains. Russia stole the designs to fast track its own. China was donated this tech by Russia. European allies were shared the technology by US.

Compared to that, India had been exploited dry by the Sultanate and the Mughals and then the British for almost 900 years of continuous looting, net transfer of capital out of India, and a deliberate policy of destruction of preexisting educational systems that gave rise to indigenous research and innovation.

Excuses are less strong post-Independence given the protestations of "independent foreign policy".

By the way, the British took away Tipu's field rockets and experimented with the technology in an European engagement. They did not have the technology before.

[raji]

When Germans developed their V, they were independent, and had not really been exploited as a colony for hundreds of years. Please also research a bit about the role of American financiers in the rise of Hitler. The quick jump that the Russians and Americans made in "rocket science" was from wholesale looting of brains and technology from defeated Germany. A part of the brains that went behind the "indigenous" development of US nuke came from expatriate German brains. Russia stole the designs to fast track its own. China was donated this tech by Russia. European allies were shared the technology by US.

Compared to that, India had been exploited dry by the Sultanate and the Mughals and then the British for almost 900 years of continuous looting, net transfer of capital out of India, and a deliberate policy of destruction of preexisting educational systems that gave rise to indigenous research and innovation.

Excuses are less strong post-Independence given the protestations of "independent foreign policy".

By the way, the British took away Tipu's field rockets and experimented with the technology in an European engagement. They did not have the technology before.

Ok. So you brought up the one excuse I missed. Its not the population, not green revolution, its the centuries of slavery that we suffered..........for which we bear no responsibility whatsoever......

So you answered your own question. Why cant Indians develop stuff at a faster rate than the West or even at the same rate..........YEARS OF SLAVERY.........not corruption.....

And your excuse is brilliant for all the corruption apologists........you know why ? There isnt a damn thing we or anyone can do to change the fact that we suffered centuries of subjugation.........therefore, this will be an enduring excuse we can use for another 5000 years.........

[raji]

Also, I am fully aware of Werner Von Braun and the American "Germans" and the Russian "Germans".....you are splitting hairs about my example.......

Did the American "Germans" also invent the Model T, the Airplane, discovered electricity, Television, Internet, invented the telephone, all of which, with the exception of television and internet predate world war 2.

Also, you can credit the "American Germans" for only the rocket technology..........could you also give them credit for the Manhattan Project ?

And what does the fact that the Germans may have gotten some money from American financiers for development of rocket technologies, have to do with anything ?

[ramana]

Thanks Shiv.

raji, what is needed for you to post in the relevant thread?

ramana

[raji]

Which one ?

[ramana]

Which one ?

Here is the relevant thread : Good Governance Thread. So I shouldn't find any more corruption related posts from you right?

[brihaspati]

Sorry, raji-ji, discussing all that in details will go OT. If you take this to the Indian interests thread, maybe we can continue there.

No I was not putting "slavery" as an excuse. It is a fact and reality that indigenous capital accummulations and research and development and education took a grand beating under the Sultanate, the Mughals and the British. GOI had to go that extra length to catch up, but which they probably could not do because of the peculiarities of power transfer and what is known in Mraxist circles as "dependent capitalism" or "colonial mode of production".

This is a fundamental problem of "primitive accumulation". Russia and China did this by intensive exploitation of their own labour at an enormous humanitarian cost. The Europeans had done this by intensive exploitation of their own workers first, and then through the triangular Atlantic trade of slavery-agrarian profits-industrial-revolution, and then plowing those proits into colonial expansion and extraction of capital from the colonies. A rarely shown movie about the horrors of industrial exploitation of virtual slave labour in Europe is the biopic of Father Daens. It compactly shows all the complicated nexus between the Church, the industrialists, the givernment, the elite, and it shows less the other economic factors that finally made this exploitation redundant. However there are hundreds of academic papers on both sides of this argument whic you can follow.

No, I was no giving excuses on behalf of anyone. I said, post-Indpendence all the "above stated" "excuses" are less "strong" and viable.

[RayC]

One Chinese poster in BR posted a likely strategy by PRC/PLA. First move is to amass troops in AP in NE to draw Indian divisions to the NE.

Then focus in Aksai Chin and thrust forward towards POK and link up with PAkistan Army. This seems to be the most logical strategy if they look at the map from their side of the border.

China can mass troops in the NE. The axes into India in the NE has to be kept in mind for reasons mentioned earlier.

Likewise, the axes into Ladakh has to be taken into consideration.

China already has Shaksgam which was ceded by Pakistan and hence are already linked to POK.

The closest thereafter from Aksai Chin to POK is the Turtok area and that would mean the capture of Ladakh.

Given the deployment and the force levels deployed by India, it is a moot point if the Chinese can link up with POK.

[svinayak]

One Chinese poster in BR posted a likely strategy by PRC/PLA. First move is to amass troops in AP in NE to draw Indian divisions to the NE.


China can mass troops in the NE. The axes into India in the NE has to be kept in mind for reasons mentioned earlier.

Likewise, the axes into Ladakh has to be taken into consideration.

China already has Shaksgam which was ceded by Pakistan and hence are already linked to POK.

The closest thereafter from Aksai Chin to POK is the Turtok area and that would mean the capture of Ladakh.

Given the deployment and the force levels deployed by India, it is a moot point if the Chinese can link up with POK.

PLA wants to take it to the next level.
NE axis will be under enormous pressure and they expect a break in Aksai Chin/Ladakh/Muzzbad axis with sustained pressure

[RayC]

One Chinese poster in BR posted a likely strategy by PRC/PLA. First move is to amass troops in AP in NE to draw Indian divisions to the NE.


China can mass troops in the NE. The axes into India in the NE has to be kept in mind for reasons mentioned earlier.

Likewise, the axes into Ladakh has to be taken into consideration.

China already has Shaksgam which was ceded by Pakistan and hence are already linked to POK.

The closest thereafter from Aksai Chin to POK is the Turtok area and that would mean the capture of Ladakh.

Given the deployment and the force levels deployed by India, it is a moot point if the Chinese can link up with POK.

PLA wants to take it to the next level.
NE axis will be under enormous pressure and they expect a break in Aksai Chin/Ladakh/Muzzbad axis with sustained pressure

That is interesting.

Did the Chinese poster give the axes, force levels etc or the plan/ concept in some form.

Unlike 1962, the situation is different and one wonders how they will put the NE to enormous pressure and breakthrough in Ladakh!!

Muzafarabad axis? How is that connected with the Chinese? Are they to go through Ladakh, Kargil, Zoji La, Srinagar to Uri? I haven't got this!

[raji]

Which one ?

Here is the relevant thread : Good Governance Thread. So I shouldn't find any more corruption related posts from you right?

Ramana,

Why do you think that corruption and future strategic scenarios for India are not two sides of the same coin, since none of the desired future scenarios will play out successfully while corruption exists as is ?

[RayC]

Raji,

As Ramana has stated take this discussion to the thread mentioned. It is to minimise the clutter.

At this rate, someone can turn the discussion to veer to the Rural Employment Generating Scheme and so on.

[brihaspati]

I t owuld be very difficult to move directly east from Shaksgam valley with large military forces. Either they move further NW to connect to KKH at points down from the Khunjerab pass. From Aksai Chin it is more convenient for the PLA to move SW, in fact from the occupied Tibetan lands, into Leh, and if possible march up straight thorugh to connect to Islamabad. But my experience of this lower area says it would be difficult to manage large troop and equipment movements on ground unless it is done in a very narrow time window during the year. Further South along the HP borders, ranges and glaciers, the various bamaks leading further south into Gangotri glaciers, east-west moves can only be done by practised mountain troops. I don't know whether PRC has such troops in massive numbers.

[RamaY]

Some angel smiled upon India and NK conducted a new underground nuclear tests.

Does India use this window and test 20 nuclear tests to validate its TN design for sure? If pakis follow suit, we will know who controls what and how much inventory people have.

Let us see how our leadership responds.

[harbans]

For those unaware of Chinese population distribution, looking at China's map as posted above by Ray ji..here's something interesting:

Populations:

Xinjiang: 19 m
Tibet: 3 m
Quinghai: 5.3 m

Total: 27.3 m

These above constitute almost half the area of China.

If you exclude Yunnan, Guizhou, Gansu one has a total 108 m 'Chinese' occupying approximately 70% of Chinese land area.

The above implies the isolation of these areas. Chinese supply lines will be tremendously strained in any War scenario these areas. India if it wants can take an effective battle not just to Aksai Chin, but beyond also if it wants.

Remember: 1.2 Billion Chinese live effectively in an area less than the size of India. On/ or near the East coast

[brihaspati]

China has built effective rail connections to Tibet. They have already started building, or have built roads across the eastern areas, and one arterial route planned/built to connect right through to Nepal. Military thinking will, create dumps of resources all along these routes, in preparation for supplying from close quarters to the actual front.

[harbans]

China has built effective rail connections to Tibet. They have already started building, or have built roads across the eastern areas, and one arterial route planned/built to connect right through to Nepal. Military thinking will, create dumps of resources all along these routes, in preparation for supplying from close quarters to the actual front.

China has just one entry point into Tibet for example. If India wants they can be cut off completely. Train and road traffic to Tibet can be got to a complete halt by neutralizing them at multiple nodes and making repairs useless for the Chinese. Aerial heavy lifts into Tibet or North of Nepal will be extremely expensive for China. Through satellite pictures every Chinese Army base to India's north in these areas can be identified and supply lines blocked and bases bombed. It's for this reason the PA relies very heavily on it's 2nd Artillery core to overwhelm Indian positions and bases. Mainland India into Tibet is lesser distance than Mainland China into Tibet. India has the advantage in any war in Tibet. But when i raise this casually with people, they give me a stunned look. I don't know if the Army has any war gaming on this aspect.

[Samay]

China has built effective rail connections to Tibet. They have already started building, or have built roads across the eastern areas, and one arterial route planned/built to connect right through to Nepal. Military thinking will, create dumps of resources all along these routes, in preparation for supplying from close quarters to the actual front.

China has just one entry point into Tibet for example. If India wants they can be cut off completely. Train and road traffic to Tibet can be got to a complete halt by neutralizing them at multiple nodes and making repairs useless for the Chinese. Aerial heavy lifts into Tibet or North of Nepal will be extremely expensive for China. Through satellite pictures every Chinese Army base to India's north in these areas can be identified and supply lines blocked and bases bombed. It's for this reason the PA relies very heavily on it's 2nd Artillery core to overwhelm Indian positions and bases. Mainland India into Tibet is lesser distance than Mainland China into Tibet. India has the advantage in any war in Tibet. But when i raise this casually with people, they give me a stunned look. I don't know if the Army has any war gaming on this aspect.

it is the ancient sleep disorder of Indian politicians that tibet is not yet used as an afghanistan for china,

entry points could be cut off but with how many causalities?in what manner will be the chinese retaliation?