North Korea conducts underground nuclear test

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 26 May 2009 13:14

Gerard wrote:With just the primary alone, they could strike the continental US with a Taepo Dong. And this might all happen on Obama's watch.

You mean slightly bigger than 9/11 ?

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 26 May 2009 14:15

i see one thing very funny
when n.k. does a n.bomb, everyone (amreeki chela, tail follower) look at ameerika to do something as it has done something wrong and has to repent the loss

or else everyone will kick its .... and will find someone else to do their jobs .

there comes the {racist term deleted} as the leader
who could solve the nuke tragedy
who could take the pains away
from {racist term deleted},and
from the southern brothers
from the united pigeons security council
and from the the unknown australians
newzealanders,and all those
who have signed
the npt ,the ctbt and
the agreements of pain
oh dear, so much....
for the unkil to bear

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 May 2009 15:24

"A crying baby get the milk"...old saying.So to with NoKo.I don't think that China has anything to do with this test because it has already stolen virtually all the US nuclear warhead secrets a few years ago,say some in the US.The Dear Leader hates being ostracised and left out of the world's soup kitchen queue and would like to be treated on the same par with Pak.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 363924.ece

North Korea fires two more short-range missiles in defiant act after nuclear test

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 26 May 2009 15:37

Philip wrote:"A crying baby get the milk"...old saying.So to with NoKo.I don't think that China has anything to do with this test

why so,?
i think china has every thing to do with this test.
having nuke tech is a different thing
it is laying a trap for unkil,
sort of strategy it uses with all its potential foes

it has already stolen virtually all the US nuclear warhead secrets a few years ago,say some in the US.

link please

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 17:19

ramana wrote:AmberG, How much for 5.5?

Somebody reported 5.5?
South Korea?

enqyoob · Post by **enqyoob** » 26 May 2009 17:24

I don't think that China has anything to do with this test because it has already stolen virtually all the US nuclear warhead secrets a few years ago,say some in the US.The Dear Leader hates being ostracised and left out of the world's soup kitchen queue and would like to be treated on the same par with Pak.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/w ... 363924.ece

North Korea fires two more short-range missiles in defiant act after nuclear test

Philip, sorry to use you as an example here, no offenseor insult at all intended, but the above reflects the "thinking" in the US "political thinkers" establishment beautifully, congratulations, you could be a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution or the (PLA_infested) Atlantic Council of the United States.

Read the first part where you "don't think" and then the link you have posted about North Korea firing off more missiles. Er.... do you see Vietnam doing this? Cambodia? Mongolia? Why would North Korea feel that it can do these, with Big Brother holding their diaper strings?

The whole "thinking" can be summarized in the first 3 words.

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 26 May 2009 20:14

Gerard wrote:
ramana wrote:AmberG, How much for 5.5?
Somebody reported 5.5?
South Korea?

POKII: GBA mb=5.47: 58 - 63kT
http://www.saag.org/common/uploaded_files/paper451.html

I guess ramana is trying to get a confirmation because AmberG's method is new.

arunsrinivasan · Post by **arunsrinivasan** » 26 May 2009 20:21

Interesting article in Forbes ... blaming China for the North Korea problem.

We Have A Chinese Problem, Not A North Korean One

Hours after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea detonated its second atomic device, Beijing condemned the test. "The DPRK conducted another nuclear test in disregard of the common opposition of the international community," a Foreign Ministry statement, issued May 25, noted. "The Chinese government is firmly opposed to this act."

Is that so? Today, China supplies about 90% of North Korea's oil, 80% of its consumer goods and 45% of its food. Beijing is Pyongyang's only formal military ally and its primary backer in the United Nations Security Council and other diplomatic forums. If it weren't for the Chinese, there would be no North Korean missile program, no North Korean nuclear program and no North Korea.

Apologies, if this has been posted before, I did a quick search & didnt find this article.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 26 May 2009 20:45

Amb. Bhadrakumar has pointed out that North Korea and Pakistan have yet to manufacture a tractor or a high speed lathe. Without Chinese proliferation of both nukes and missiles, neither country would have any. Such reckless proliferation displays immense malice towards India and Japan by the Chinese.

archan · Post by **archan** » 26 May 2009 21:15

Gerard wrote:Such reckless proliferation displays immense malice towards India and Japan by the Chinese.

I have hence had the view for a while now that the non proliferation business will not work at all. India needs to be ready on its own. There is absolutely no point in being the 'good boy' at the international stage. The vultures will eat you alive.

Rupesh · Post by **Rupesh** » 26 May 2009 22:01

With Obama in charge and POTUS funding PAKIS, its good that NoKo has tested one more nuke. It will be better if they can test a long range missile capable of reaching mainland USA. NoKo is no threat for us.

Samay · Post by **Samay** » 26 May 2009 22:10

Gerard wrote:Amb. Bhadrakumar has pointed out that North Korea and Pakistan have yet to manufacture a tractor or a high speed lathe. Without Chinese proliferation of both nukes and missiles, neither country would have any. Such reckless proliferation displays immense malice towards India and Japan by the Chinese.

the chinese are creating a bigger problem for themselves than to others
i think its time to play a china upon china.,
the pearls are in place, and the mallacca is waiting for a speed barrier specifically for china.
their world known malice wont leave them of any use to anybody except unkil, either way ,by current strategy,the chinese are sure to be beaten very badly in future.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 May 2009 22:37

Former South Korean Foreign Minister Han Sung-Joo told FOX News his scientists estimated the scale of the latest North Korean nuclear test to be about 10 times the size of the 2006 nuclear test.

They registered the tremor from the blast at 4.5 on the Richter scale. That is 1.0 more than in 2006, or 10 times greater. It is estimated that the 2006 test was about 800 tons, just under one kiloton. That would make today's blast around 10 kilotons.

By comparison, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was 22 kilotons.

The former South Korean foreign minister called the latest test serious, and a potential "game-changer."

He said North Korea's Kim Jong Il is trying to escalate its nuclear capabilities to attain a better bargaining position, and eventually is seeking bi-lateral talks with the United States. He said North Korea is directly trying to draw attention from the Obama administration.

Source: Talking Points Memo

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 May 2009 23:03

US needs to stop this beating around the bushes and come open about the actual proliferators. The spectacle of countries who cannot manufacture a matchbox on their own being able to manufacture nukes and balistic missiles will continue. There got to be a plan t fix China problem.

archan · Post by **archan** » 26 May 2009 23:15

Don't know if this was pre planned or NoKo catalyzed this..
India ups vigil on China border (NDTV)

India increases troops:

* Two new divisions (40,000 troops)
* Artillery brigade, 9 airstrips
* Military's assessment: China is India's greatest threat
* India wants to match China's forces
* Cost: Rs 5,000 crores

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 May 2009 23:16

what will US do now other than

I can't understand how Japan under current circumstances is not resorting to making bomb? US won't be able to helpthem.
( Are our missiles capable of reaching major cities of China?, is there any staunch enemy of China we can arm with?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 May 2009 23:25

Muppalla wrote:US needs to stop this beating around the bushes and come open about the actual proliferators. The spectacle of countries who cannot manufacture a matchbox on their own being able to manufacture nukes and balistic missiles will continue. There got to be a plan t fix China problem.

The original sin was the Chic-4 design to PRC to bolster them against the Soviets in the mid 1960s. The next one was to allow the PRC to transfer this to the TSP right after 1971 war. And proofing in Lop Nor in mid 80s and early 90s.
Its the original transfer that will be revealed if PRC is pressed to much. Meantime they will create more chaos as thats what they need to emerge on the top.

Recall Clinton's push to get PRC deputised to lead Asia right after the POKII blasts. BO is doign the same.

What is the US fascination with Commie PRC? Is the Commie fake?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 May 2009 23:28

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2257687/posts
Russia confirms North Korea's nuclear test - Summary (yield: 10 ~ 20 kilo tons)
Russian seismologists detected an earthquake in North Korean territory at a depth of about 10 kilometres. The US Geological Survey put the magnitude as equivalent to a 4.7 earthquake,

GuruPrabhu · Post by **GuruPrabhu** » 26 May 2009 23:35

As America puts more pressure on Pakistan and tries to wean it away from China, China slowly releases the leash on its rabid dog NoKo, this is a battle for balance, China has full ownership of one rabid dog (noKO) and part ownership of the other ( Pak) and is surely making progress in courting the third ( Iran). America has tamed two( Libya) and Iraq, partly owns one ( Pak) but is at loggerheads with the other 2

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 26 May 2009 23:37

ramana wrote: What is the US fascination with Commie PRC? Is the Commie fake?

Ramana-garu,

It is commie-ba**s that fascinates US mindosphere. India on the other hand is worried to show its ba**s because people may call them yindootva-ba**s and india may become insecular. Our leadership prefers insecurity to insecularity.

shame! shame! shame!

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 27 May 2009 00:19

I have an intuition that events around NoKo tests will rapidly get escalated and have a possibility of a showdown very soon. Expecting some firecrackers around in east/middle-east.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 27 May 2009 00:53

Gerard wrote:Amb. Bhadrakumar has pointed out that North Korea and Pakistan have yet to manufacture a tractor or a high speed lathe. Without Chinese proliferation of both nukes and missiles, neither country would have any. Such reckless proliferation displays immense malice towards India and Japan by the Chinese.

Gerard, the piece that doesn't fit together regarding the Chinese gameplan is this.

Doesn't it benefit the Chinese to have the current non-proliferation regime strongly in place? I say that because NPT and related institutions legitimize China's membership in the nuclear club while implicitly penalizing India's nuclear aspirations. And yet, the integrity of these very institutions is being threatened by the clearly visible results of China's proliferation to NoKo among others. On the face of it, China's proliferation appears to be self-defeating.

How does it benefit China to weaken the NPT? CTBT I can understand, because they want to reserve the right to upgrade their own arsenal... but NPT? Why would they want to destabilize their own powerful diplomatic asset against India' arsenal, and a major pillar (alongside P5 membership) of their claim to exceptionalism and supremacy over Asia?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 May 2009 01:05

The IUCNA deal was for a post-NPT world keeping the earlier framework/structures intact. This NoKo test is with PRC guidance/connivance as it creates chaos for US which has both hands full with Af-Pak and Iraq and Iran in the air. So toss one more ball to the juggler. Having tossed the ball it can be withdrawn as the juggler cries uncle. This test doesn't enable NoKo nuclearization (this is enabled by PRC onlee). All it does is shows the dark side can toss a ball which can be withdrawn for the right price.

Most likely US response will be to strenghten NPT process/framework. Which means in effect India takes a hit and the IUCNA is on the bcak burner.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 27 May 2009 01:15

ramana wrote:The IUCNA deal was for a post-NPT world keeping the earlier framework/structures intact.
Most likely US response will be to strenghten NPT process/framework. Which means in effect India takes a hit and the IUCNA is on the bcak burner.

The focus is on NPT.

One plan is to focus on NPT and make it do or die situation and India is made a center of the global debate. If India accepts NPT the world is saved or else the various doomsday scenarios will be pushed arising in relation to NPT and other areas of development present the possibility of catastrophic impacts, ultimately including the end of the world, or at least of humanity.

Judgement Day - 2018

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 May 2009 01:18

You mean re-focus on NPT.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 May 2009 01:19

They may be gambling on playing the role of sheriff in Dodge where everybody gives up their guns. Only the Sheriff and the US Marshal remain armed and they guarantee security to everyone else in town.

negi · Post by **negi** » 27 May 2009 01:20

Unkil will pay the price of reckless appeasement and lack of integrity while using his 'big stick' policy ;I am afraid this chutzpah will at some point reach a level akin to appeasement of Germany by the allied powers just prior to WW-II . The only difference being unlike 1940's American mainland will no longer enjoy the Geographical buffer/isolation in event of any armed conflict.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 May 2009 01:23

Gerard wrote:They may be gambling on playing the role of sheriff in Dodge where everybody gives up their guns. Only the Sheriff and the US Marshal remain armed and they guarantee security to everyone else in town.

it might be Ok but for the fact that both are criminals and will extort with their powers.

Amber G. · Post by **Amber G.** » 27 May 2009 01:28

Ramana, Sivab et all – I was just using undergrad physics and back of envelop type calculation (energy in surface waves etc – yes I know all the energy is not transmitted through surface waves but still ...) Additional 0.5 (for 5.5) would translates into (10^.75 = 6 times more or about 180 KT)

Folks, one thing to keep in mind that, all these calcs, as Gerard put it, are more of a “guesstimate”. Even if we take the formula given with values of a=3.92 and b=0.81, and M=5.0 as gospel , the BEST one can say is the yield is between 18KT and 26KT.

This is because b=.81 could be 0.805 or 0.814 etc.
(I am not even going to select b=.75 which will give much higher numbers)

This is why plugging these values in Excel and deriving/publishing “precise” values based entirely on these values is absurd.

You can’t go too wrong, if you multiply by a factor of 1000 for every 2 magnitude change – that is : 3.0 == 20-30 Tons, 5.0 == 20-30KT … 7.0 = 20-30 MT etc.
(b=.75 translates to multiply by 10000 for every 3 change in magnitude)

BTW for the first atomic test in Nevada, the preliminary yield estimation which was closest to the accepted value was by Fermi, who dropped a few bits of paper, and measured the distance they traveled due to blast. His calculation and estimation of the blast came out to be very close to actual value later determined with much more sophisticated apparatuses.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 May 2009 01:37

both are criminals and will extort with their powers.

They already have the town ordinance prohibiting everyone but themselves from owning guns. They are considered the legitimate authority by most of the town folk.

They've armed the bad guys who have now taken to riding through town shooting in the air. The population is aghast and ready to demand that the authorities take action. The next step is peace enforcement - Wyatt Earp style.

But can they pull this off? Will the good guys trust this sheriff? Or will they rely on their own guns and form their own posse to deal with the bad guys?

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 27 May 2009 01:44

ramana wrote:You mean re-focus on NPT.

Acharya wrote:

One plan is to focus on NPT and make it do or die situation and India is made a center of the global debate. If India accepts NPT the world is saved or else the various doomsday scenarios will be pushed arising in relation to NPT and other areas of development present the possibility of catastrophic impacts, ultimately including the end of the world, or at least of humanity.

Judgement Day - 2018

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 27 May 2009 01:53

US fascination with Commie is not new. For a brief period, an US miliary officer almost convinced himself and the US admin during the pre-civil war days (between PLA/CCP and KMT) that commies were "commies" only in name - they were purely "nationalists". This track has remained within US thinking from two pragmatic reasons. One is the obvious pursuit of "nationalist/imperialist" interests by PRC, and not promoting "communism" in real terms after Stalin's death and the Korean war, externally - apart from paying a lot lip-service. The second reason is the need to keep a wedge driven fast between Russia and China. This was what led a die-hard "right-winger" like Nixon to patch up with Mao.

The modern trend continues with a similar perception from the Euro side. For mainland EU, the need is to balance Russia. For UK, it is the attraction of using PRC to bolster TSP and a hold on IO and South Asia.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 27 May 2009 02:03

brihaspati wrote: One is the obvious pursuit of "nationalist/imperialist" interests by PRC, and not promoting "communism" in real terms after Stalin's death and the Korean war, externally - apart from paying a lot lip-service.

PRC contributed a lot more than lip-service to external Communist causes during the Vietnam conflict. Or to anti-US causes at any rate, whether one calls them Communist or not.

It has been postulated that Beijing wore down the US by its indefatigable, relentless sponsorship of anti-US parties in the unwinnable proxy war of Vietnam, until HK and Nixon finally went to the Chinese with rapprochement. Maybe today's TSPA/ISI are attempting the same thing; gambling, as Mao did, that the US won't dare risk an escalation of conflict against Islamabad but make generous peace offerings instead.

This may very well be the preferred MO of China and its axis of disciples.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 May 2009 02:39

from the FAS blog

Regional seismic observations of the 9 October 2006 underground nuclear explosion in North Korea and the influence of crustal structure on regional phases
By Hong, Tae-Kyung; Baag, Chang-Eob; Choi, Hoseon; Sheen, Dong-Hoon

The crustally guided shear wave, Lg, is typically the most prominent phase of a nuclear explosion at regional distance. This Lg phase is analyzed often to discriminate a nuclear explosion from a natural earthquake. In addition, the Lg phase allows us to determine the size of the detonation. A nuclear explosion test in North Korea was conducted on 9 October 2006. The epicenter was located close to the eastern shore of the Korean Peninsula, resulting in raypaths that vary significantly according to the azimuths. In particular, rays radiated in the southern direction experience lateral variation of crustal structures at the continental margin. We examine the influence of raypaths on regional seismic phases by comparing the spectra and waveforms from different raypaths. Three natural earthquakes in North Korea are also examined to determine the raypath effect. We find that the Lg from the nuclear explosion dissipated significantly as result of energy leakage into the mantle resulting from variations in crustal thickness along the portion of the raypath traversing the western tip of the Sea of Japan (East Sea). Some of the leaked energy develops into mantle lid waves (Sn), causing a large energy increase to Sn. A similar feature is observed in the records of natural earthquakes. This feature is confirmed by seismic waveform modeling. The raypath effect also causes underestimation of magnitude. The Lg body wave magnitude, m b (Lg), is estimated to be 3.8-4.2 for records from pure continental paths and 2.6-3.4 for records from paths crossing continental margins. This result illustrates the need to consider raypath effects for the correct estimation of magnitudes of regional events, including a nuclear explosion.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 May 2009 03:02

Where was all this crustal knowledge when they were looking at POKII and vsunder showed them wrong?

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 May 2009 04:00

link

Xiong Zhiyong, professor of diplomacy at the China Foreign Affairs University affiliated with the Foreign Ministry, said China needed to work with the U.S. to show North Korea its behavior was unacceptable, but he conceded that "past methods to intimidate and impose sanctions have proved ineffective."

Tsinghua University scholar Sun Zhe said the test had shown Beijing it could no longer carry on as before.

"There is no need for China to maintain its past policy toward its trouble-making neighbor any longer," Sun was quoted as saying in the Global Times, a newspaper published by the ruling Communist Party.

Sun reflected widespread thinking that ultimately the U.S. and North Korea would have to work out differences on their own. "China only plays the role of a peacemaker," he said.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 May 2009 04:19

Nightwatch's insightful comments on the Noko Test.

North Korea: The official test announcement, at about 1130 EDT, 24 May.

”The Democratic People's Republic of Korea successfully conducted one more underground nuclear test on May 25 as part of the measures to bolster up its nuclear deterrent for self-defence in every way as requested by its scientists and technicians.”

”The current nuclear test was safely conducted on a new higher level in terms of its explosive power and technology of its control and the results of the test helped satisfactorily settle the scientific and technological problems arising in further increasing the power of nuclear weapons and steadily developing nuclear technology.”

”The successful nuclear test is greatly inspiring the army and people of the DPRK all out in the 150-day campaign, intensifying the drive for effecting a new revolutionary surge to open the gate to a thriving nation.”

”The test will contribute to defending the sovereignty of the country and the nation and socialism and ensuring peace and security on the Korean Peninsula and the region around it with the might of songun ( translated as the military-first policy).”

Comment: The announcement revealed four points not mentioned in international commentary. First, the scientists and technicians needed another test. Their requirements are seldom mentioned in public, but NightWatch has insisted that science drives the testing programs; politics drives their timing. In other words, the scientific establishment has practical scientific reasons for testing independent of political calculations.

Their requirements are subject to the needs of the political system they serve, which is intrinsic to communist systems since the time of Lenin, and, in recent times, of almost all political systems. The significance of this is that the scientific results of the 2006 test mandated a follow-up at some time. The needs of the political leadership dictated when. The scientists had to be ready to test when the political leaders called.

The trigger was the international blowback against North Korea in reaction to the April missile test with a satellite payload.

The second point is the tacit admission the 2006 test was less than satisfactory. The references to a new, higher level of explosive power that helped satisfy the scientists convey this admission.

The third point is the open admission the testing is related to nuclear weapons. This is not new but prior to 2006 the North never admitted it had a nuclear weapons program. The admissions have become more open and more explicit in proportion to the skepticism of the nuclear powers and the international criticism of the north. It is inversely proportionate to the lack of aid and other valuable gain produced by the test.

The North expects to be rewarded for becoming a nuclear-armed state. That is its strategic assessment of the final outcome of India and Pakistan achieving nuclear weapons status.

Finally, the statement termed the test as reinforcing the 150-day campaign to make the North prosperous. This has two implications. The 150-day campaign is not related to the test, and is about economic progress. The linkage of the nuclear test to the 150-day campaign exposes the leadership’s enduring expectation of economic benefits from going nuclear. Apparently Kim and his men and women think if they do it big enough, they will get rewarded.

The Test

Location: British Geological Survey's stations in Devon, Herefordshire and Aberdeen reported the “epicentre of the explosion was in the county of Kilju, deep in the mountains of north-eastern North Korea and the location of the P'unggye-yok nuclear test site” which was used in the October 2006 experiment. Unidentified analysts were reported to have estimated “today's test to have been carried out in a similar way to the previous one, when a horizontal hole was drilled into the side of Mount Mantab.”

The fissile material. According to the Guardian account, the North Korean scientists most likely used plutonium in a fission explosion. Plutonium is the fissile material produced at Yongbyon, which North Korea has more than 20 years of experience in producing. The material would have come from the stockpile which more than trebled after the US terminated the Agreed Framework that successfully froze the Yongbyon complex from 1994 to 2002.

Test size. Russian sources said the test was between 10 and 20 kilotons, which puts it close to the size of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs. The Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Organization (CTBO) significantly down-sized the Russian report.

CTBO reported North Korea's nuclear test was ‘slightly bigger’ than the one that occurred in 2006, according to a Reuters summary today. The CTBTO said that the nuclear test registered 4.52 on the Richter scale, while the test in 2006 measured 4.1. The tremor occurred just beneath the ground in close proximity to the location of the 2006 test and has an estimated blast force in the "low single digit" kiloton range.

The leadership might not have wanted to use much plutonium for this kind of demonstration; deliberately chose to perform a low yield test, as part of a miniaturization program, for example; or the scientists might not yet have mastered nuclear explosion technology. The CTBTO’s comparative measurements do not build confidence in the North’s mastery of nuclear weapons technology, which would seem to have been a primary political as well as military objective. Thus, even this test does not appear to be an awe-inspiring clear-cut demonstration of nuclear prowess.

Was the event a surprise to the US? No. The initiator of action always has control of the timing of his actions, but the need for an action and the probability of its occurrence in a foreseeable time period are easily predicted and bracketed. Just about anyone interested expected this after the North perorated about the need to build its nuclear deterrent and publicly signaled its intent to do so as part of its response to the UN Security Council’s President’s statement on the missile test in April.

Failure to follow-up a threat with supporting and convincing action makes a leadership the object of ridicule. The North regularly falls into this trap because its science is not yet world class in missiles or nuclear explosions, not even South Asian, and no one apparently wants to risk telling Kim Chong-il the truth.

Comment: The North’s weapons developers always have tried to use short cuts in reverse engineering or in modifying the design of advanced weapons systems. They perform fewer tests and fewer launches than the Russians or the US in developing new systems. Today’s test shows that short cuts don’t work for some systems.

If CTBTO’s data is closer to accurate than the Russian announcement, nobody needs to care much more about today’s test than about the 2006 test, for now. Based on CTBTO’s assessment, the North’s technical skill after three years of work is still less than impressive. CTBTO’s data suggest the North’s scientists might have achieved a one kiloton detonation – big, but not remotely close to determinative in a conflict.

Applying General Rupert Smith’s analytical method to today’s test (See Smith’s, The Utility of Force), the North Koreans have intensified the long standing confrontation by raising the stakes of a conflict. This means the North has made conventional war impossible and ensured that it loses in any escalation to nuclear conflict.

The test means the North has acknowledged it cannot survive without nuclear weapons to deter an attack and probably will not survive with them. However it can cause damage to South Korea so as to deter an attack, so the theory goes. In practice, a nuclear North Korea is a target for nuclear weapons and that enormously clarifies US nuclear planning.

To illustrate by analogy, arguably the most salient impacts of nuclear testing in South Asia in 1998 were on strategic and operational planners. On both sides, planners had to assume that no future general war would remain conventional. At the same time, they also had to investigate ways to use limited military conflicts/engagements in support of political policy goals with minimal risk of nuclear escalation.

One solution to this dilemma is India’s adoption of a “cold start” conventional warfare doctrine. In this doctrine, specially trained Indian Army units achieve territorial gains so swiftly as to create conditions for negotiations before Pakistan can prepare its forces for conflict. The feasibility of this doctrine was established in the 2001/2002 crisis, in which India achieved full combat readiness for 750,000 soldiers in 21 days, whereas Pakistan never achieved full combat readiness for any forces in the same time period.

Another is the Indian General Staff’s acceptance of limited warfare without decisive battlefield results. Pakistan seems to have evolved no military doctrine other than that inherent in total war and total destruction. To deter India, Pakistan must resort to nuclear missile strikes and risk total annihilation as a state from Indian counter attacks. The military cost-benefit-risk equation is simpler now than ever.

Applying those concepts to Korea, today’s test, not the 2006 test, puts the Korean peninsula confrontation in the same condition as the India-Pakistan confrontation. South Korean, Japanese and US planners must now accept that no future conflict, however small, will remain small. There is no conventional general war scenario any longer and no scenario in which North Korea survives, should confrontation move to conflict. If a fight begins, both sides must plan for nuclear escalation. The confrontation on the Korean peninsula is clearer now than it ever has been.

However, there are threats in which limited applications of military force are useful to keep the peace and enforce international commitments, by preventing encroachment, for example. The dispute over sovereignty off the South Korean northwest coast and the offshore islands is such a circumstance. North and South Korean planners must analyze and evaluate the escalation paths to nuclear war from naval shooting incidents, among other scenarios.

Assuming the North actually detonated fissile material for a weapon of mass destruction, the risks and pathways to nuclear escalation must now be examined every time, all the time, by South Korea, China, Japan and Russia, as well as US forces in South Korea. This is costly and annoying.

Arguably the largest danger is the condition of intelligence. North Korean intelligence about Allied intentions is fundamentally inaccurate and biased by the regime’s need to present itself to its own people as under constant, existential threat without justification. The big lie is essential to maintaining internal control, discipline and support to the absurd military-first policy.

The Allied corollary to the North’s myopia is the poverty of diagnostic and predictive intelligence about North Korean decision-making, resulting from the state’s obsession with security.

The danger is misperception. Both sides do misread each other daily in low stress circumstances. This shortcoming worsens in conditions of stress and crisis. Only visceral instincts in favor of caution/survival in the face of risking national annihilation have prevented North Korea from starting a war of reunification. Visceral instincts that favor caution plus action driven by evidence -- as opposed to guess and gut instincts -- become more important and pivotal in conditions in which conventional conflict = nuclear war.

The challenge for the Allies is to modify threat management practices to accommodate a nuclear armed North Korea. Allied costs plus the nature of deterrence, confidence building and damage limitation measures are a lot different when the threat is nuclear war, instead of old fashioned, conventional war.

Missile launches. To add to the stress of the moment, the North launched missiles yesterday reportedly to deter Allied reconnaissance of the test site – another indicator that regional governments expected a test, though the precise moment was not knowable. Yonhap reported short range ballistic missile tests also are likely on 26 May. These actions are provocations to change a confrontation into a conflict.

In the simplest interpretation, the North is throwing a tantrum to be noticed despite the regional ripple effects. Off hand, that appears to be the behavior of a desperate leadership that has run out of options for saving its people through its own imagination and creativity. It is looking for outsiders to save it … the mouse squeaked today and wants to be rewarded.

China-North Korea: Chinese media broadcast the official reaction to the North Korean test, as follows,

“According to a Korean Central News Agency report, the DPRK has announced that it conducted a second nuclear test on 25 May. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China has issued a statement regarding this. The full text follows:

On 25 May 2009, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducted a nuclear test again, in disregard of widespread opposition from the international community. The Chinese government expresses resolute opposition to this.

To realize non-nuclearization on the peninsula, oppose nuclear proliferation, and maintain peace and stability in Northeast Asia has been the Chinese government's unswerving, consistent position. China strongly demands that the DPRK abide by the non-nuclearization commitments, stop related actions that may lead to further deterioration of the situation, and return again to the track of the Six-Party Talks.

Maintaining peace and stability in the Northeast Asia region is in the common interests of all parties concerned. The Chinese government calls on all parties concerned to respond calmly and properly and insist on peacefully resolving the issue through consultation and dialogue. China will continue to make unremitting efforts for this.”

Comment: The North Koreans do not care – or perhaps are pleased -- that their test today insulted China. The Chinese are embarrassed and troubled. The limits of their influence are now clear and plain to be seen. Moreover, they now must consider the implications of having a new nuclear armed state on their border that is not Russia. The North Korean problem also detracts from China’s strategic rise because the North Koreans are prickly and prone to embarrass or attack their allies as well as their enemies. See below.

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Keshav · Post by **Keshav** » 27 May 2009 04:24

Why is North Korea glad that it insulted China?

It either means that North Korea is growing too big for itself by feeling it no longer needs China or China doesn't fund North Korea as much as people thought.

It would be good shower praise on North Korea to make it feel special and increase the faultline between itself and China. As long as their acting like teenagers to Father C, other countries should take advantage of it.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 May 2009 04:59

The material would have come from the stockpile which more than trebled after the US terminated the Agreed Framework that successfully froze the Yongbyon complex from 1994 to 2002.

http://www.dailynk.com/english/read.php?cataId=nk00100&num=3803

Tokyo Shimbun (newspaper) in Japan reported on the 4th that the declaration submitted by North Korea last week indicates that 26 kg of plutonium were used for the production of nuclear weapons.

The newspaper quoted a source from the Six Party Talks that said “North Korea declared that the total amount of produced plutonium was approximately 38.5 kg, 31kg of it was extracted for production of the nuclear weapons; 26 kg of it was actually used for the nuclear weapons and around 2kg were used for the nuclear test in October, 2006.”

It added that “2 kg of plutonium is just waste and 7.5 kg of the total extracted plutonium remains in the fuel rods.”

On June 28, Kyoto News Agency reported that the plutonium amount extracted by North Korea was around 30 kg. The total amount, including the amount of plutonium remaining in the fuel rods after being used (8kg) and also in the other nuclear devices (6kg), is, in all, 44kg.

Gerard · Post by **Gerard** » 27 May 2009 05:30

U.S. 'didn't give Japan advance N-test intel'

"This is the first time we've had no advance information from the U.S. military regarding North Korea's missile or nuclear [programs]," a dismayed senior Self-Defense Forces official said following a meeting at the Defense Ministry on Monday afternoon.

On this occasion, North Korea is believed to have informed the United States and China in advance that it was to conduct a nuclear test. But the senior SDF official believes Japan may have been passed over in the flow of information regarding earlier signs of North Korea's latest test.