Iran News and Discussions

atma · Post by **atma** » 13 Jun 2009 23:24

So now that Ahmad ni jihad is back with all guns blazing , any comments?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090613/wl ... 0613150435

atma · Post by **atma** » 13 Jun 2009 23:32

Meanwhile AmeriKhan's subtle doubts about the elections.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090613/ap_ ... us_us_iran

CRamS · Post by **CRamS** » 13 Jun 2009 23:44

atma wrote:So now that Ahmad ni jihad is back with all guns blazing , any comments?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090613/wl ... 0613150435

Hats off to the Iranians for exhibiting spine and voting for a nationalist. I do feel Ahmadinijaad sometimes talks and behaves like a nutball, but neverthless, he stood up to USA who is basically asking Iran to bend down on its knees & surrender. It seems all TFTA folks, be it Iranians or Pakijabis have a sense of nationalism no matter what the world thinks of them, quite in contrast to SDREs, who take their cues from globalization and other BS. Look how in India MMS was retuned to power in contrast to the nationalis BJP who were portrayed as "extremists"; nonsense which the SDREs bought by the hordes.

That said, Israel and USA might feel compelled to pre-emptively strike at Iran. Remains to be seen if Iranians stand up and fight or collapse like other tin pots in the region like Iraq.

atma · Post by **atma** » 16 Jun 2009 01:11

Time magazine's take on the return of the hardliners/nationalists....makes it easier for ameri khan to further sanction and isolate Iran.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/ ... topstories

Still, in addition to his power over domestic and economic policy, the Iranian President is the face for the country abroad. And in that respect, a victory by Mir-Hossein Mousavi would have presented a worst-case scenario for Western efforts to curtail Iran's nuclear program, senior Administration officials said Sunday. He would have presented a softer, less confrontational face to the outside world. And he would have been able to stall even before he entered into negotiations with the excuse of taking all summer to get a new Cabinet and negotiating team in place.

By contrast, Ahmadinejad's win may increase Washington's chances of getting tougher sanctions on Iran if they refuse to negotiate, the officials said. Ahmadinejad personifies Iran's unpredictable, dangerous side. He made even more hostile and threatening statements toward Israel and the U.S. during the campaign. And though they dare not say it publicly, Administration officials privately say that the messier and more contentious the postelection period, the more it sends the message to the outside world that even if some Iranians want moderation the hard-liners will not allow it.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Jun 2009 02:31

From BBC. The below is an interactive image....so if you click on the boxes @ BBC's website you will be rewarded with more knowledge

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 03:02

Is there going to be another revolution in Iran.
http://twitter.com/timeline/search?q=%23IranElection

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 16 Jun 2009 03:30

CRamS

Not sure you want to call it spine. After all stupid Saddam did the same and see what he got for his people. Tons of misery.

How the hell did they manually count the millions of vote in less than a day???

You would too is if in today's world this is what you have to look forward to.

Iranian nationalism could have been harnessed without any of the nuttiness -

In this case there is no color revolution being triggered from upbroad. (at least none I can sense) but genuine frustration. ( serious doubts on the counting in less than a day especially manual counting)

Based on conversations with relatives of those who live there young Iranians are seething under the mullahs and one can sympathize with them and unlike Bakis they do not try and use Lahori logic.

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 03:42

Iranian government sites seem in-accessible. The 'cyberwar' has already been lost by them it seems, none of the Iranian government sites are working. Its only a matter of time before the GOI(I==Iran) shuts off Internet in Iran completely. However there might still be a few private VSAT links with connectivity to Internet.

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 04:05

http://twitter.com/persiankiwi/status/2184251197
persiankiwi All normal proxys out - all normal ISP's out in Tehran - #Iranelection

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Jun 2009 04:24

The attention this is getting in the USA blogsphere makes me speculate that there is "foreign hand" that is aiding the protesters.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 16 Jun 2009 04:55

In countries like Iran, urban "revolutions" against religious or theological establishment cannot sustain themselves at this stage of economic organization, unless these are staged and led by the armed forces. The rural Iran is still solidly behind the Ayatollahs. If Mousavi and Khattami are not careful they will simply serve as agents for liquidation of a generation of urban youth.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 16 Jun 2009 05:00

brihaspati wrote:In countries like Iran, urban "revolutions" against religious or theological establishment cannot sustain themselves at this stage of economic organization, unless these are staged and led by the armed forces. The rural Iran is still solidly behind the Ayatollahs. If Mousavi and Khattami are not careful they will simply serve as agents for liquidation of a generation of urban youth.

the yeltsin phenomenon

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 16 Jun 2009 05:08

more like Tiananmen phenomenon

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 16 Jun 2009 05:09

Well, Yeltsin was an insider job, with the army remaining indifferent and the "religion" aka soviet communism, losing its hold on vast swathes of Soviet population. The Iranian system has cleverly shielded the "supreme leader" with concentration of the root power of theology+military away from direct givernment. So that any dismal aspect of the government can be deftly flicked away from the theological leadership. This is virtually a copy of the monarchical system with theological authority safely protected through an entity completely unaccountable to the people. In USSR, the communist party made the blunder of vesting all authority into a single body - the party=supreme soviet=CC=politbureau. Iranian Islamic leaders have not repeated this mistake. So the crucial role will be that played by the Iranian army. Somehow, my intuition says that the army will not find Mousavi a worthy hedging option.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 16 Jun 2009 05:10

SwamyG wrote:The attention this is getting in the USA blogsphere makes me speculate that there is "foreign hand" that is aiding the protesters.

The nervousness of the Obama Whitehouse in passing any comment on this tells me otherwise.

Obama enjoys being compared to JFK.
Well, JFK did turn a blind eye during the failed Prague Spring uprising, so perhaps Obama can earn a comparison on this, too.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 16 Jun 2009 05:25

Speed of Iran vote count called suspicious

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Jun 2009 05:28

^^^^^^
It could be also deliberate. Why the need to open mouth in a hurry?

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 16 Jun 2009 05:36

Obama has been going out of his way to keep the mouth shut. Just look at Hillary's muted statements. Here's a man-on-the-street poll in US:

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 16 Jun 2009 06:03

Here's a more detailed take on events from Pépé Escobar of Asiatimes:

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 16 Jun 2009 06:33

Pepe truly manages to get some fascinating details.

Thanks Sanjay

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Jun 2009 06:53

Look @ how Huffigtonpost is covering this: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/1 ... 15189.html Live blogging

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 16 Jun 2009 07:33

So???

Thats how news breaks nowadays

Don;t have to wait for NYT till tomorrow morning.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 16 Jun 2009 09:03

Good pictorial from Boston Globe:

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/0 ... ction.html

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 16 Jun 2009 10:47

Hmm..so whats is the color code for yet another revolution that is attempting to throw out yet another anti-US regime convieniently?

Me thinks this Ahmednijan is too strong for this. Unkil is biting more than he can chew this time.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 16 Jun 2009 11:40

Prague , Budapest hmm those days the world was Bipolar ( disorder

) Now its axis of evil disorder.
Big O better keep quiet which he is rightly doing. More importantly He needs Kim (seriously) Ill Jong to go after.

Iran breakthrough is needed via a hardliner (like for India always TSP third rate General is more predictable to deal) to cut deals for supply routes, Nuke energy etc etc.

Oh by the way this is a Green revolution but unlike Indian one.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Jun 2009 11:45

Green revolution, is this backed by uncle?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Jun 2009 12:13

Ahmadinejad attends Russia summit despite election protests: IANS

MOSCOW: Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Russia for a summit Tuesday despite protests over alleged election fraud in the Islamic
republic's presidential polls last week.

Ahmadinejad will attend a summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Yekaterinburg, central Russia, and later meet with journalists, Russia's Itar-Tass and Interfax news agencies said.

Iran's embassy in Moscow said Monday that Ahmadinejad's trip, originally planned for that day, had been delayed. It remained unclear whether Iran's president would meet his Russian counterpart Dimitry Medvedev.

It provides a good opportunity for PM Singh to meet with Iranian President Ahmadinejad and to further cement our ties with the Iranian nation.

Ahmadinejad is not going anywhere, despite the election dispute, and India should accept reality and make the most of it.

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 12:35

Aren't all revolutions urban led even in Asia, for instance the previous Islamic revolution began in Tehran.
The recipe seems to be :-
1. The only broadcast media allowed to exist is government owned, the air is rife with rumors based on conjectures because anti-government broadcast media and point to point ( cellphones, SMS, Internet) communication links have been disabled.
2. Even the people who would normally have stayed back home now come out because their cellphone is not working and the TeeVee box is lying to them.
3. The palace guards are deployed and draw the first blood and then they are overwhelmed.
4. The real army is called out who refuses to fire upon what they consider their own people and revolution succeeds, the counter example to that is Napolean's famous 'whiff of grapeshot'. But that was a revolution that had already run its course for too long.

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 12:37

Ahmadinejad is not going anywhere, despite the election dispute, and India should accept reality and make the most of it.

I am not so sure. But then I have been awake late last night and watching the twitter streams.

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 12:48

SwamyG wrote:The attention this is getting in the USA blogsphere makes me speculate that there is "foreign hand" that is aiding the protesters.

The global Internet users including from India are supporting Iranian protesters, though Indians are mostly muted in their views about events in Iran( they are muted about events in India as well ). It might be a foreign hand but not likely a foreign government hand.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Jun 2009 12:57

tarun wrote: It might be a foreign hand but not likely a foreign government hand.

There is no such thing.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Jun 2009 13:09

tarun wrote:
Ahmadinejad is not going anywhere, despite the election dispute, and India should accept reality and make the most of it.
I am not so sure. But then I have been awake late night and watching the twitter streams.

The ones twittering from Iran would be the frustrated ones of course. They have every reason to be frustrated and angry. But it is difficult to overturn an election, especially if the candidate has become a part of the establishment, has the blessings of the Grand Ayatollah, derives his strength from the Pasdaran and Basij, and is loved by the lower classes in urban areas as well as has a strong following in the rural areas.

Overturning the election would constitute an admission of theft and wrong-doing by the Iranian state, which is not possible in such an ideological state as Iran. Secondly it will be an admission of defeat at the hands of western media and their western patrons. No way is the election going to be overturned.

Of course, Ahmadinejad would have lost all legitimacy in Iran, but not the power. The power would continue to flow through him, the Grand Ayatollah and the Council of Guardians! At this moment, Iran is vulnerable to falling for the influence of foreign powers who decide to bless the current disposition. In the future Iran would move very much in the direction of Russia and China, as the current disposition finds ever less sustainability at home.

India cannot allow Iran to move completely into PRC's orbit, especially as India has strong strategic reasons for an Indo-Iranian alliance. That is the reason, it is absolutely necessary to give the current disposition some respite from criticism.

We should simply say, 'It is an internal matter of Iran' and move on. We lost Myanmar because of our immature support to Aung San Suu Kyi over the military junta. Let us not do the same with Iran!

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 13:25

Tens of thousands of people joined a massive rally to support the defeated candidate Mousavi

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 547881.htm

This is interesting. Twitterers say its 100s of thousands and this news agency says its tens of thousands.

tarun · Post by **tarun** » 16 Jun 2009 13:34

We should simply say, 'It is an internal matter of Iran' and move on. We lost Myanmar because of our immature support to Aung San Suu Kyi over the military junta. Let us not do the same with Iran!

Agreed its their internal matter, the official position of the GOI has to be 'we'll deal with whoever is in power in Iran'. There is no need for Indian government to take a for or against position. Silence is best.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Jun 2009 14:01

I am fully expecting Ahmadinejad to become even more recalcitrant, as he tries to face up to foreign leaders, after having lost his face in the aftermath of a flawed Presidential election, with a disputed outcome. If after his overwhelming support in the last elections, he was hell-bent on provoking Israel; supporting their enemies, Hamas and Hizbollah; needling USA; building up Iran's nuclear capabilities, etc. etc., after this election he will become even more hardline, withdrawing to the constituency that supports him most, and become even more aggressive. The relations between Iran and USA are going to nosedive sharply, IMO.

India has already cooled down the relations too much in the last years. We simply cannot afford a further cooling down. Ahmadinejad is going to look for legitimacy abroad, and India should provide him with more legitimacy than he can get elsewhere in PRC or Russia. PM Manmohan Singh has been confirmed as the new PM in India with a strong majority in Parliament. As a democratic leader he is best positioned to help out Ahmadinejad at this juncture.

Ahmadinejad should be invited to New Delhi and conferred state honors as the President of Iran, and not wait for the resolution of his legitimacy problems at home.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 16 Jun 2009 14:14

RajeshA wrote:I am fully expecting Ahmadinejad to become even more recalcitrant, as he tries to face up to foreign leaders, after having lost his face in the aftermath of a flawed Presidential election, with a disputed outcome. If after his overwhelming support in the last elections, he was hell-bent on provoking Israel; supporting their enemies, Hamas and Hizbollah; needling USA; building up Iran's nuclear capabilities, etc. etc., after this election he will become even more hardline, withdrawing to the constituency that supports him most, and become even more aggressive. The relations between Iran and USA are going to nosedive sharply, IMO.

India has already cooled down the relations too much in the last years. We simply cannot afford a further cooling down. Ahmadinejad is going to look for legitimacy abroad, and India should provide him with more legitimacy than he can get elsewhere in PRC or Russia. PM Manmohan Singh has been confirmed as the new PM in India with a strong majority in Parliament. As a democratic leader he is best positioned to help out Ahmadinejad at this juncture.

Ahmadinejad should be invited to New Delhi and conferred state honors as the President of Iran, and not wait for the resolution of his legitimacy problems at home.

Correction. As a selected leader he is best positioned to wait for instructions from elected leader aka super PM who is in turn waiting for instructions as to what India should do. India lost independent thinking as to how to act with respect to Iran.

Stan_Savljevic · Post by **Stan_Savljevic** » 16 Jun 2009 14:20

Can folks cut this sniping of Shri MMS in every thread, whenever a possibility exists? The time for it has come and gone. Cmon, the people knew that he was not going to stand in the elections, he was the pre-election nominee for the PM post, and from many surveys, people like him for his "incorruptibility." That is more than what can be said for most of the other elected netas of this nation. Enough, what more do you want? The more folks bring in their biases beyond the realms of normalcy, the more kiddish the argument looks. Find a different reason to tar him, stop scoring own goals.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Jun 2009 14:27

RajeshA wrote:I The relations between Iran and USA are going to nosedive sharply, IMO.

PM Manmohan Singh has been confirmed as the new PM in India with a strong majority in Parliament.

The advice is good, however there are two premises here -- Obama and MMS. As far as I can see things, BOTH the heads here (one elected, one selected) have a vision of the world which based on "accommodation" (a euphemism for kicking the can on critical problems, for example US pressure on Israel now), with the minor difference that Obama > MMS as far as the potential of taking a hardline position goes.

Something like Taliban > China > Iran > Israel > ... > India.

So we are likely to be held holding the can when the music stops

So the way I see it playing out is that, in this rather chaotic world over next few years who ever can hold their nerve and play hardball will certainly carve out space for themselves in the geo-pol equation when the dust settles. However there are all sorts of totally random events happening, as such it will be difficult to predict if any of the hardliners score a long term self goal.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 16 Jun 2009 14:28

I agree with stan sirs stand. justify any thing you say about MMS, this losoe talk lead to loss.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Jun 2009 14:35

ShyamSP wrote:Correction. As a selected leader he is best positioned to wait for instructions from elected leader aka super PM who is in turn waiting for instructions as to what India should do. India lost independent thinking as to how to act with respect to Iran.

Internal Indian politics have no place in interstate-relations, and such politics should be discussed in other threads.