Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

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brihaspati
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

Chironji,
I was actually focusing on the Russia-China-India comparison, because of certain questions raised by ramanaji in the GDF threads about PRC.

For most parts of history, I would say the advantages, disadvantages, and tragedy of areas like Ayriia/Eran, or Arabia, stem from being more history's pathways and crossroads - conduits, rather than sources and sinks of economic flows. In the modrn period, both areas almost appear to be "sources" because of their hydrocarbon reserves. But they still are not economic powerhouses - primarily because of lack of natural renewable resources - large pools of human brains, long term persistent climate and weather patterns that permit steady and easier agricultural production, as well as less hostile living environment, etc.

Traditionally these areas sustained themselves as conduits of movement of goods, products, services and human cargo. Only when they could extend their political and military control into the "sources" and "sinks" could they briefly enjoy regional power status. Sooner or later, the "sources/sinks" always learnt form their temporary military advantages and neutralizd the advantage. So the regions went back to square one.

Steady, human usable, agraiculturally usable water supplies, climate that favours life-sustaining food production, and the crictical "mass" in the total population of a large pool of brains that can adapt to changing needs and conditions to evolve the most appropriate solutions, wins long term over temporary advantages like a particular form of energy technology or military tactic and hardware.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

X-posting from PRC relationship thread:
ramana wrote
So if your line of thought is correct then PRC has reached it maxima based on Sinic memes? Does their adoption of Marx give them aspirations of manifest destiny?
Answering myself,Marx is ideologically dead and robs one of any hopes or plans for manifest or unmanifest destiny.
To me it looks like PRC is the result of the leap forward of the Chinese society, specifically Han, from the feudal age to the modern age via the vehicle of Maoism. Now that they have reached modernity, quo vadis?

Maoism will whither away and be gradually replaced with an authoritarian setup in which the people are more affluent. The affluence is based on commercial markets in US and strong dollar in which the PRC invested (~$2t before the crash). There will be stress in near future due to US economy contraction and the decline in dollar but in long term might even out. If we go back to Hegel in his "philosophy of history" he is not too optimistic about Chinese culture's advancement. (Specifically he says they dont have imagination) Will modern day China prove him wrong by unleashing the forces keeping its people down? Chinese people are innovative as the next ones given a chance. It was the confusion of Confusism and the 'son of heaven' dogma that kept them bound up.

If traditional values return then the Chinese are not going to be expansionist beyond their natural frontiers. Yes there will be spillover into there sphere of influence in SE Asia. But in Central Asia they have reached their frontiers.

What if they get bit by the manifest destiny bug from a declining US? Will they prove Hegel wrong?

The much stronger geographical factors for centralization in China compared to India always homogenizes and saps the "imagination" part. Centralized authorities are always worried about "imagination" in people. For that means an aspect of human reality no authority can ever hope to fully control : the power and freedom of thoughts inside an individual mind. Therefore we see a constant struggle by centralizers to eliminate such brains from the population. On the other hand, they encourage innovation on practical utility. Thus the Chinese show tremendous curiosity, innovation in tools and instrumentation, technology - but the power of abstraction, imagination, leaping from one paradignm to another - is missing. Both Russia and China have an obvious and significant missing element in their "glorious" history - the lack of profound innovations in philosophy. Even when it exists, it is concerned about practical implementation and consequence for the society only.

For that birth of abstraction and imagination, one needs an internal dynamic of tension between diversity and unification. Diversity and unification drive each other forward in trying to overcome each other, and gives rise to imagination. In Europe, the Mediterranean sea was the geographical context that served the role of perennial rivers, and the Alpine fissures and smaller perennial rivers provided the "sub-empire" context. Right from the earliest period, they have faced the same dynamic of tension between diversity and unification. In this sense, India and Europe are unique in making that "imagination leap". The differences between the two stem from the difference in scale of operations and the relative weakness of natural productivity in the European arena.

China's problem wil be exactly that Hegel refers to - the lack of imagination. The next stage in China's way forward would have been to get rid of the CCP, and install an authoritarian "democracy" a la Putin, or the dynastic regimes in Singapore. The crucial switchover would depend on the PLA. Problem is, PLA has not faced any serious reverses or defeats in open engagement. It is also perhaps being pumped up with resources to keep the commanders happy and within CCP leash. Increasingly, as the political relevance of CCP in the radical acpitalist framework being developed within China, decreases, the regime will depend more and more on the PLA. PLA not just as a power to bolster the regime in Tiananmen style showdowns, but PLA itself as basis of the Chinese nation. Over time this gives rise to a curious situation not unknown in Chinese history. That of the military being allowed to advance toa certain extent and then undermined by the mandarins of court. This is usually the time when China becomes vulnerable to "barbarians".

China thinks it is invincible. It always thought so just before it retreated and fell before "barbarians".
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

Iranian elections are over, and expectedly Ahmedinijad has "swept" elections. So US calculations, and Obamaic gestures have really shown what the gestures amount to. By showing inclination to concede on behalf of non-Muslims, it emboldens Islamic regimes to harden their stance. The elections could be as reflective of true popular will as any such other "sweeping" elections anywhere in the world - especially where election conducting authorities have little or no real accountability but lots of pretenses about being impartial. But what matters is that legitimacy has been granted to Ahmedinijads Ayatollah blessed position. What will be the consequence for India?
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by SwamyG »

Shouldn't India break or make relationship with Iran on its own framework and interests, instead of relying on what USA thinks about Iran or Islam? Obama's gesture or reactions to it should not be a core factor to determine relationships. Persians and Indians share lot of history and hope we can cement some solid good cultural relationship with them.
Last edited by SwamyG on 14 Jun 2009 19:39, edited 1 time in total.
brihaspati
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

Exactly. India appears not to formulate always an independent policy towards Iran, or even forming deeper strategic relationships apart from the "pipeline" dimplomacy. So the Obamaic gestures and the clear message by the Ayatollahs can have consequence for GOI behaviour. This was what my question was about.
Gerard
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Gerard »

darshhan wrote:Guys make no mistake.We are still slaves.Only our masters have changed.Previously it was the british.Now it is the pseudo-secular leftist politician-bureaucrat nexus which lords over us.
Yes. During the British rule one had the option to vote them out. :roll:

There is no country in the world that allows someone to advocate the armed overthrow of the state.

US Code Sec. 2385. Advocating overthrow of Government
Whoever knowingly or willfully advocates, abets, advises, or
teaches the duty, necessity, desirability, or propriety of
overthrowing or destroying the government of the United States or
the government of any State, Territory, District or Possession
thereof, or the government of any political subdivision therein, by
force or violence, or by the assassination of any officer of any
such government; or
Whoever, with intent to cause the overthrow or destruction of any
such government, prints, publishes, edits, issues, circulates,
sells, distributes, or publicly displays any written or printed
matter advocating, advising, or teaching the duty, necessity,
desirability, or propriety of overthrowing or destroying any
government in the United States by force or violence, or attempts
to do so; or
Whoever organizes or helps or attempts to organize any society,
group, or assembly of persons who teach, advocate, or encourage the
overthrow or destruction of any such government by force or
violence; or becomes or is a member of, or affiliates with, any
such society, group, or assembly of persons, knowing the purposes
thereof -
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than
twenty years, or both, and shall be ineligible for employment by
the United States or any department or agency thereof, for the five
years next following his conviction.
Atri
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Atri »

brihaspati wrote:Exactly. India appears not to formulate always an independent policy towards Iran, or even forming deeper strategic relationships apart from the "pipeline" dimplomacy. So the Obamaic gestures and the clear message by the Ayatollahs can have consequence for GOI behaviour. This was what my question was about.
Vajpayee had a policy which somehow mollified both Israel and Iran... With him, that policy is gone as well...
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Rahul Mehta »

Gerard wrote: US Code Sec. 2385. Advocating overthrow of Government

Whoever knowingly or willfully advocates, abets, advises, or
teaches the duty, necessity, desirability, or propriety of
overthrowing or destroying the government of the United States or
the government of any State, Territory, District or Possession
thereof, or the government of any political subdivision therein, by
force or violence, or by the assassination of any officer of any
such government; or
Whoever, with intent to cause the overthrow or destruction of any
such government, prints, publishes, edits, issues, circulates,
sells, distributes, or publicly displays any written or printed
matter advocating, advising, or teaching the duty, necessity,
desirability, or propriety of overthrowing or destroying any
government in the United States by force or violence, or attempts
to do so; or
Whoever organizes or helps or attempts to organize any society,
group, or assembly of persons who teach, advocate, or encourage the
overthrow or destruction of any such government by force or
violence; or becomes or is a member of, or affiliates with, any
such society, group, or assembly of persons, knowing the purposes
thereof -
Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than
twenty years, or both, and shall be ineligible for employment by
the United States or any department or agency thereof, for the five
years next following his conviction.
--

We should amend our Magnum Opus Constitution and a clause to similar to following clause in the German Constitution Article-20

http://www.iuscomp.org/gla/statutes/GG.htm

Article 20 [Basic institutional principles; defense of the constitutional order]

(1) The Federal Republic of Germany is a democratic and social federal state.

(2) All state authority is derived from the people. It shall be exercised by the people through elections and other votes and through specific legislative, executive, and judicial bodies.

(3) The legislature shall be bound by the constitutional order, the executive and the judiciary by law and justice.

(4) All Germans shall have the right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order, if no other remedy is available.

---

IOW, if PM or SCjs or anyone is usurping the Constitution as they are doing now, then citizens should have Constitutional Right and Duty to resist using.
Gerard
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Gerard »

IOW, if PM or SCjs or anyone is usurping the Constitution as they are doing now
Utter nonsense.

The Prime Minister of India is usurping the constitution?
The Judges of the Indian Supreme Court are usurping the constitution?

You are accusing the PM and SCJs of criminal activity?

Please file a PIL.

And give us a break. The forum is not your personal propaganda organ. In thread after thread you bring up the same half baked ideas. It is really quite tedious.

This is not Gitmo and we are not detainees subject to torture.
Gerard
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Gerard »

And BTW

Section 81 of the German criminal code
"Whoever undertakes with force or through threat of force:
1. to undermine the continued existence of the Federal Republic of Germany; or
2. to change the constitutional order based on the Basic Law of the Federal Republic of Germany"
is guilty of treason. It is punishable with life imprisonment.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by ShauryaT »

Gerard wrote:
This is not Gitmo and we are not detainees subject to torture.
Second it. He is the second one on my ignore list now. Reading his posts is injurious to mental health. Nothing personal RM. Just that I am not up to par with you mentally! :)
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Rahul Mehta »

Gerard wrote:
IOW, if PM or SCjs or anyone is usurping the Constitution as they are doing now
Utter nonsense.

The Prime Minister of India is usurping the constitution?
The Judges of the Indian Supreme Court are usurping the constitution?

You are accusing the PM and SCJs of criminal activity?

Please file a PIL.

And give us a break. The forum is not your personal propaganda organ. In thread after thread you bring up the same half baked ideas. It is really quite tedious.

This is not Gitmo and we are not detainees subject to torture.
Will reply tomorrow in Neta-Babu-judge thread. For now, FYI, google on "right to revolt" and you will have ample examples of States in US, which allow "right to revolt" and "right to revolution".

Will reply tomorrow in Neta-Babu-judge thread. Gotta run now
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Sanku »

ShauryaT wrote:
Gerard wrote:
This is not Gitmo and we are not detainees subject to torture.
Second it. He is the second one on my ignore list now. Reading his posts is injurious to mental health. Nothing personal RM. Just that I am not up to par with you mentally! :)
I agree, mods please help us BRFites out here.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by RayC »

Rahul Mehta,

Sauce for the goose need not be the sauce for the gander.

Who cares what the US (or for that matter any other country) thinks and does?

We are our own masters today!

We may borrow ideas from the world, but not mindlessly!
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by darshhan »

There is no country in the world that allows someone to advocate the armed overthrow of the state.
I am not advocating armed overthrow.I never did.

What I am saying is that there should be a right to free speech which is currently not possible in India.Some people might misuse it but still this is the most important right that a person can have.

If a govt. is afraid of this right it shows how insecure it is.
Gerard
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Gerard »

Nobody said you did.

What the excerpts were meant to show is that free speech does not encompass advocating the overthrow of the state (via open letters to the Army Chief or otherwise). Nations prohibit such speech. There is nothing unique about India in this regard. Similar, if not identical, laws are found throughout the Commonwealth.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

Free speech is mostly allowed in apparently most open form in the USA. Last year there was a march by the Neo-Nazis at DC, which unlike previous years, was this time most well protected. All the arrests for creating "disorder" were from the "anti-racist activists" and the anti-defamation League. Why can't Neo-Nazis be muzzled in the USA? Because they do not advocate openly overthrow of the USA as a state, but they do from time to time advocate overthrow of the government, or the supposed ideology behind the givernment, or the ideological-framework of the "state authority and establishment" which they deem as ZOG. But they slip through that hairline fracture - they are not advocating the armed overthrow of the "state". This is different from "overthrowing" a government if that government is deemed to have gone against the state.

The Indian Constitution has been a master of design, based on all the experiences of prior violent political upheavals of the previous two centuries. If you look carefully at it, it has been extremely well designed to prevent violent militant outbreaks against a sitting government. It has been so designed that radical changes in the rashtryia framework cannot be brought about with cross-coupled authorities and entities placed to check any radical changes. For example, the final arbiter in deciding whether proposed changes to the constitution or the law is "acceptable" or not in the "spirit of the constitution" is the Supreme Court which is not directly accountable to the citizen for its "interpretations" in the sense that citizens cannot penalize the SC judges for an interpretation that the citizen does not agree with. This particualr authority to "check" or bloc radical changes has been carefully separated from the common citizen by layers of legislature and judiciary, and in fact any radical change has been made extremely difficult to get through the legislature. Overriding the SC has been made extremely difficult through the legislature.

In a way, this actually leads to weakening of democracy. Such a system actually ensures conservatism. It is alright as long as there are no real need for changes. But when such needs for change accummulate and the rashtra uses its powers to "conserve", a breaking point comes which destroys the whole rashtra.

We have argued here and lambasted all sorts of external influences and resources to explain away the persistence and growth of violent anti-rashtra movements like the Maoists. But ground realities show that Maoists use existing internal societal conditions and forces within the society in their favour, and flourish with external inputs. They must be using and accessing sources of grievance that are too radical for the "constitution" to have been accommodated.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by shiv »

brihaspati wrote:Free speech is mostly allowed in apparently most open form in the USA.
There is another side of free speech that was revealed in the immediate post 9-11 years. All internet threats to the life of the US President were taken seriously. Anyone who was discovered wishing Dubya ill luck was looked at very carefully.

My contention about a board such as this is the fact that most people are spread out all over the world and despite the so called anonymity of the internet have to comply with laws and compulsions of the state that they live in. For example you cannot live in the US as an immigrant and then come to Bharat Rakshak and say "I want Obama dead because he is paying Pakistan for terrorism" without being slightly concerned about your personal circumstances. However it is perfectly possible for the same person to see Manmohan Singh as a traitor and state without fear of any consequences "I want Manmohan Singh dead". You will not be able to sit in India and say that.

The point I am getting at is that your personal circumstances dictate how much of what you feel will be revealed in public and how much remains hidden. What happens on a board like this is that we are consciously applying the laws of the land we live in while we allow ourselves "freedom" to break any other laws.

What sort of policy should be implemented by the board owners of Bharat Rakshak under the circumstances regarding "Free speech?"
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

Most of the problems you refer to is because of the deliberate confusion sought to be created by the governments about the equivalence of the government with the rashtra. "Overthrow" of the "state" is not equal to the "overthrow of the government". So governments have been known to have planned for or perhaps even carried out "killings" of individuals which at the time of killing, their supporting/electing people knew nothing about - or at least those killings were not part of the election agenda they got elected upon - and therefore carried out without any sanction whatsoever from the "people" - all in the name of "national interests". So the government does things that are not always necessarily sanctioned by the people, but is still carried out in their name. Here the falacious logic employed by the government is that the government and rashtra are equal and equivalent. The same logic is used to claim complete immunity from any criticism, by individual members or leaders in the government.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by SwamyG »

shiv wrote:What sort of policy should be implemented by the board owners of Bharat Rakshak under the circumstances regarding "Free speech?"
Very simple anything that is not inimical to Bharat a.k.a India. I understand that if a government is impervious, callous and oppressive; citizens might consider revolutionary measures to overthrow the government. There is place and time; and BRF should not be that place to discuss such topics.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

The Maoists are now probably being allowed to take on the CPI(M), more openly, as part of an understanding with the forces opposing the parliamentary "Left" in WB. We will see more and more attrition against the "Left" in WB. But if a proper "Right" force does not fill up the resulting vacuum, with the Congress type of vacuum ideology sought to be imposed - it will be a field day for an ideology prone populace to take up Maoism or complete social disarray with the Jihadis gaining ground because of BD proximity.

Does the TMC or Congress even hope to fill up the blanks? Congress will never return to WB. WB kicks out political movements once and for all. If the Left goes, it will be for the good. TMC does not have that internal political dynamic to hold on its own the entire WB populace for decades. If these two are allowing the Maoists to expand the way they are, they are making a costly mistake they will regret bitterly in the future.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

The SCO is getting to be an interesting attempt at forging a formal straightjacket for India. Russia may want to subtly replace at least part of the mantle USA is leaving behind. Is it possible that USA relies psychologically more on Russia to balance out Chinese influence in the region? In that sense, Russia would be a more convincing and comforting "influencer" to achieve US objectives for the Indian subcontinent. UK would want Chinese advances, to look after its pet favourite TSP. USA is actually a much more fickle paramour of nations than UK. When it wants to or needs to, USA does it with the passion of a teenager, but turns away equally quickly abandoning her lover when the lover loses his charm. I would say, USA has already decided that TSP is getting too costly. It needs to withdraw with good face, for which it is ready to pay financially. But it would still want to balance out the forces on the subcontinent without having to invest militarily heavily. Thus banding India with Russia, given India's known problems with China and TSP, can provide a means to maintain fractures within the SCO and a possibility of raising a triangle of tension and alliances of two against the third in all possible combinations (Rus+India ag PRC, Rus+PRC ag India, PRC+India ag Rus!!?).
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

Current scenario in India can perhaps best be characterized as a phase of extreme and accelerating diversity. Historically, India shows alternate periods of extreme diversity and then a counterreaction towards extreme unification and homegenization followed by a counterreaction again of moving towards extreme diversity. During the diversity phase, concomitants are the presence, intrusion or activity of "foreign" elements in society and ideology.

We can identify such phases in expansion of the Persians into the western provinces of India circa 500-600 BCE, which is followed by attempts at political and ideological consolidation in the Magadhan empire. The process deepens with the advent of the Greeks, followed by political and ideological consolidation in the Mauryan empire. Same happens with the fall of the Mauryas, and the phase leading up to the Kushan consolidation and corresponding consolidation in the south. The phenomenon repeats with the period of the Guptas, and more spectacularly illustrated in the follow up to the Islamic invasions with the rise of Shankara school of thought. The later phase under Sultanate is of coures more well documented and we can identify the patterns more clearly, right up to the advent and eventual formal expulsion of the British.

The average human mind is perhaps limited in the number of models it can maintain of abstract entities with corresponding associated concrete rules of behaviour. So too much diversity means too many models a single individual has to keep in mind while deciding how to react in a given situation. Eventually a time comes, when that threshold of capacity is crossed and people become open to suggestions of homogenization and unification that simplifies and reduces the number of different models. Indians have prehaps been subjected historically to many more such episodes of diversification that has acted as stimulus to increase the threshold compared to other societies which started out later on the path towards complexity. This slightly increased capacity is reflected in the easier acceptance and tolerance of diversity as reflected in the ideological history quite prominently, as compared to say European society.

But still even this increased threshold is reached eventually, even in India. At the moment we are fracturing our society and ideology at an accelerating pace. The more this happens the quicker we approach the point when the majority of the population will reach their threshold and be looking for a simpler, homeogenizing, unifying framework. Is that going to be the Abrahamic? Unlikely, for they are "too simple" for the level of complexity that the Indian mind has become used to. Can it be the vacccum ideology as maintained and promoted by the "secularist" Congress+Left position? That leaves too much to opportunistic thinking and individual decisions relying on their self-interest only - something the general Indic mind is not comfortable with over the long term.

Are we ready to think towards an alternative? Whether we like it or not, we will have to face this question, and it is intimately linked with the geo-political scenario for the next few generations in India.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by RamaY »

brihaspati wrote:The Maoists are now probably being allowed to take on the CPI(M), more openly, as part of an understanding with the forces opposing the parliamentary "Left" in WB. We will see more and more attrition against the "Left" in WB. But if a proper "Right" force does not fill up the resulting vacuum, with the Congress type of vacuum ideology sought to be imposed - it will be a field day for an ideology prone populace to take up Maoism or complete social disarray with the Jihadis gaining ground because of BD proximity.

Does the TMC or Congress even hope to fill up the blanks? Congress will never return to WB. WB kicks out political movements once and for all. If the Left goes, it will be for the good. TMC does not have that internal political dynamic to hold on its own the entire WB populace for decades. If these two are allowing the Maoists to expand the way they are, they are making a costly mistake they will regret bitterly in the future.
Brihaspati-ji,

In today's news, I read that three CPM supporters were killed by Naxalites (Maoists) and this news items falls into the scenario you presented above. The news article says that the Maoists (Naxals) are putting the local tribes infront of them in this fight.

I hope it is not an alliance of Maoists and EJs as we saw in Orissa.

Really appreciate some insight into WB social structure and role/place of tribals.

thanks
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

RamaYji,

My take was that the "allowance" was most likely to have been provided by exactly those mainstream parties who were involved in the anti-Nano movement. We do know that part of the "muscle" during that agitation was provided by the Maoists.

The WB tribals are many and quite varied in subdivisions. The Midnapore-Bankura area has considerable tribal demographic overlap with adjoining areas of Jharkhand. The tribals that I know of most intimately, belong to the "red-soil" area of WB. I have some knowledge of the Midnapore area too.

Tribals of WB have always been at the forefront of violent movements against the establishment. They were quite active during the 42 movement. In certain areas, troop trains had difficulty passing through or were harassed. The Naxalite period that I researched, using local sources showed much greater involvement of the tribals than is usually officially acknowledged. Many turned to petty crime after the movement was suppressed and the surviving intelligentsia of the movement escaped into the forests and badlands of Bihar, Orissa and central India. The area around Mahadeo hills was a conduit.

The tribals have also been active initially in the CPI(M) led resurgence in the late 70's. Problem is that as anywhere else in the world, communists regenerate those exploitative relations that they set out to destroy. Over the course of "Left front" rule, the CPI(M) local leadership began to be taken over by "class" interests that were very similar to the previous ones (even if not by birth or family). I have experience of the type of treatment and "use" meted out to the tribals by CPI(M) post holders in the remoter areas. There has been tremendous amassing of wealth by local CPI(M) leaders in general. Moreover they are not ashamed of showing it off. Tribal women are also typically at the receiving end of the pleasures of certain portion of CPI(M) leadership.

Tribals that I know of, in common with most areas of central and east Gangetic belt, have very little capital, or means of production. Their main means of livelihood comes from temporary and contract labour, and they are virtually almost entirely migrant labourers. Both men and women set out for work, and women are sexually abused in many workplace scenarios. Little progress has been made under the CPI(M) in addressing these issues. In spite of pious statements at conferences and committe meetings, I have seen first hand, how "ground realities" are used as excuses by the local leadership to carry out their personal agenda at the expense of the tribals.

If you hhave access to any eyewitness accounts of these areas, I am sure you will hear or see the contrast in the most obvious way - look at the build and quality of CPI(M) party offices and residences of local leadership, compared to the common residences around. For me this was always shocking, and I used every excuse possible not to spend nights at such lavish accommodation. My prior contact with tribals usually provided me with night acco in huts or cottages. I have never been able to reconcile the claims of the ideology and the practice I saw in reality. My presence in the huts also threw up lots of issues - such as evidence of sexual abuse etc. This led finally to my "virtual ban" from such regions because I would raise the issues at "higher" levels. This is one party that has refused to learn from the results of its own arrogance.

The tribals would be ripe for Maoist use. I am not surprised.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by RamaY »

Thank you Brihaspati-ji!

What motivates these remote tribes in general; Solitude, Self-governance, economic prosperity, or a respectful place in the natural background? My interest is to formulate a strategy for such tribal communities in Indian economic model so that these tribes are motivated to protect and nurture natural habitat and act as the loca base in GOI's fight against Maoism and other anti-national/civilizational initiatives.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

RamaYji,
Can you have all of "Solitude, Self-governance, economic prosperity", and "a respectful place in the natural background" simultaneously? That would be all that they need! :) However, their definition or concept of economic prosperity may not coincide with "urban" standards. In fact "a respectful place in the natural background", "self governance" would be more important for them than the others. Most importantly they keenly feel and resent "land/habitat alienation". This is indeed a tricky problem. They are not averse to "modern" education, but still want to retain their "natural" existence. Some degree of control or sense of ownership over their traditional economic/land/natural resources are essential to win them over.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by RamaY »

Brihaspatiji

I guessed so!

True education shouldn't conflict with environmentalism; the western world is learning this now.

This is the bedrock of my poverty aliviation program as outlined in Indian Interests thread. Please review and comment.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by Rahul Mehta »

RamaY wrote:Brihaspatiji

This is the bedrock of my poverty aliviation program as outlined in Indian Interests thread. Please review and comment.
can you also put it on some blog?

The posts get scattered and get erased when admins delete the threads.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

RamaYji,
I have been following your proposals with keen interest. RM suggests rightly that they should be collected together at least in a single article first. This can appear to be play-acting and fantasizing for some, but I take it very seriously as an exercise in preparation for the future. "To boldly go where no one has so far dared to go". I will give what little I can contribute as my comments on the Indian interests thread.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

One of the curious side effects of what I feel the current phase of extreme diversification, is the complete absence of any ideological, moral framework that finds Maoism/Naxalism of the current form in India, as wrong, false or deniable. We see plenty of rationalization of why and how Maoism developed and why they are doing what they are doing. But I see a curious lack of denial of the fundamnetals of Maoism as unacceptable ideologically for India. There is almost a tacit acceptance of their claims of acting in favour of the poor or disenfranchised. "They are bad, but how could they not be, seeing the repression?" There is romanticization of Maoists as Robin Hood figures and no real serious attempt at tackling their ideological claims - based on which they formulate their policy and attract popular support.

This is one more line of fracture we treat functionally, by symptoms, and treat symptomatically. We never go after the root of the fracture, because we never realize this to be a fracture. The EJ, the Jihadis, the ethnic separatisms, religious separatisms, sectarian subdivisions, we allow the multiplicities of identities to grow at an enormous rate. We do this because we have forgotten to visualize a single unifying structure, against whose backdrop, these different attempts at constructing separate and antagonistic identities appear for what they really are - the attempts by people with limited visions to carve out power bases of their own and remain in power hopefully in perpetuity.

I find therefore that some find it normal to consider proposing converting the LOC to IB in Kashmir, a similar manifestation of this all-encompassing tolerance for diversity. In the future we will perhaps see a greater clamour to cede territory. This could be done subtly to familiarize Indians with the concept of "ceding territory" to "buy everlasting peace", so that eventually when it is actually carried out, the majority have been already desensitized. If not a part of the GOI long term strategy for "Kashmir solution" sought to be popularized and accepted, let us not allow ourselves to be deceived by this worship of unlimited and ever-increasing "diversity".
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by brihaspati »

Continuing on my position against converting the LOC to IB, I would suggest that there are solid reasons to rachet up the pressure on TSP.

The main logic being provided for reducing show of aggression (if any) towards TSP is that this will unite all the various factions and entities fighting inside TSP and who otherwise would tear TSP apart on their own. I have myself maintained by assessment that all the various subnationalist conflicts being highlighted are not sufficient to overrule common hatred against India seen as a Qufr country ripe for Ghazwa-e-Hind. We have had evidence of Balochi youth being recruited to fight Jihad in Kashmir.

The point is that unification on the basis of constructing a common foreign devil, does not need to depend on actual aggression by the supposed foreign "devil". In history this has happened many times. The best known example in the last century is that of the "Juden" by the Nazis and others of same ilk in Europe (Nazis were neither the first nor the only one in Europe or the Anglo-Saxon world to construct so - although after their military defeat, all else were quick to shed that connection and blame it all on the Nazis). In the TSP psyche, the Qufr Hindu of India is an uncanny parallel to the abject, "feminine" "Juden" of the Nazi. Whether the "Hindu" becomes aggressive or not, the TSP elite and its uneducated, Madrassaized, Ulema controlled rural labour under semi-feudal landowning elite, will always see the "Hindu" as similar to the "Nazi" Juden. The Hindu can remain completely passive, without ever retaliating, the TSP power elite will still continue to see India as the devil. In fact the more passive and non-retaliatory the Indian reaction is, the greater will be the need to construct India as the "foreign devil". Any foreign "devil" that shows the possible capacity to turn TSP to dust and desert, is immediately converted into "god" - a hostile one may be, but still a "god" to be carefully pleased and kept in good humour. This is the status of USA or PRC. The key should have been obvious in the way the "God/Yahweh/Allah" has been constructed in the Abrahamic, but on this forum looking at that obvious is not possible because it will appear "religious". USA and PRC have obtained this status in TSP eyes by being militarily aggressive in other areas than TSP. India was aggressive in '71 in BD but did not continue to occupy like PRC in AP. In fact TSP and the Jihadis could restore a lot of their original influence and power and India was shown to have retreated considerably in BD. In TSP eyes, this failure to grab and hold on to territories previously owned by "others", is a weakness - and goes against the fundamental thrust behind the theory of Jihad.

So what is the way out?

Yes, a blunt posturing of military aggression will be used by the TSP leadership to try and unify. But on the other hand, if India uses a more subtle approach for aggression, then the internal conflicts and TSP's need to construct the foreign devil can be used against TSP. India can posture military aggression, but declare its targets openly to be the Pakjabis only. Select the top landowners and military elite and their supporting semifeudal clans only as targets. Pledge support for all proper subnationalist aspirations within TSP directed against Pakjabis. Simultaneously, India should also put on psychological warfare on the agenda by openly preparing at least Northern Indian populations in civilian and military drills to face the consequences of nuclear war by TSP and PRC. This is to construct TSP and PRC image as nuclear aggressors, and also send a message that India does not mind facing and making TSP face also the consequences of a nuclear fallout.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by SwamyG »

brihaspti ji: How to realise these thoughts? In other words, how do we implement them under Indian conditions, that being no visible articulation of vision for the nation and country's need to focus on other areas of development keeping in mind poverty and corruption through out the land; and with little help from the elected representatives in all walks of life?
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by RamaY »

SwamyG garu,

LEADERSHIP. That is the one word answer.

India needs leadership. Current governance structure is just fund-managers of Indian resources (cultural, geographical, natural, human, and military). In the present setup they manage this mutual fund called India and extract their managing fees (base salary plus a percentage of its growth). Nothing more.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by SwamyG »

Ramay garu: Yes, that is what I was getting at. We have threads about leadership, Chandragupta-Chankya model etc; but we have to see what happens when the rubber meets the road. We have praja (electors) and rajans (elected officials). What we need is gurus (think-tanks). It is evident that the rajans hands are busy fighting elections and running the country; they are just the implementers we need gurus (path & direction setters).
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by ramana »

Watch it you too will be dubbed Hindutvadi even if you are Indutvadi!
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by svinayak »

SwamyG wrote:Ramay garu: Yes, that is what I was getting at. We have threads about leadership, Chandragupta-Chankya model etc; but we have to see what happens when the rubber meets the road. We have praja (electors) and rajans (elected officials). What we need is gurus (think-tanks). It is evident that the rajans hands are busy fighting elections and running the country; they are just the implementers we need gurus (path & direction setters).
We need atleast 100 think tanks working on national interest
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by ramana »

For starters we need a hundred people to think in national interests.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by suryag »

^^^ you have them here.
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Re: Future strategic scenario for the Indian Subcontinent

Post by ramana »

Can you do that without taking potshots at them?
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