Iran News and Discussions

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 18 Jun 2009 03:42

GOP is a lost cause, let them comeout with similar statement regarding saudis. When was the last time they saw free & fair election,and were able to march on the street?

asprinzl · Post by **asprinzl** » 18 Jun 2009 05:19

Spengler had a brilliant article on Iran a couple of days ago. So far, no one had touched on the subject he explored. Iran is actually a dying nation. Its Persian speaking population is contracting faster than the contraction of Russian speaking population of Russia.

They are facing Sunni Wahabbi/Salafist threat on both of their frontiers in the form of the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east and the Saudi backed Salafists in the west. The Sunni forces in the east are already slowly cleaning up small and vulnerable pockets of Shias in Pakistan and Afghanistan. What is more worrying is that the Sunni manpower in the East is more than double the total population of Iran and are growing while the Iranian population is contracting. To ensure survival, the Mullah's are seeking the nukes. If Sunni Salafi forces with or without the Pakiban joining forces attempt a "final solution" over the thirty five million or so Paki Shiites, a nuke armed Iran would provide a strategic insurance policy that may prevent such aa genocide. Short of that there is a real possibility of the Paki Shia facing a potential genocide.

The trouble with Ahmadinejad is that his saber-rattling had been against the wrong power-Israel. This is the Middle East. You cannot show weakness. More so among Muslim nations. If you show weakness, that will be your end. For Ahmadinejad, he can only show off his prowess and Iran's power. Hence, his saber rattling at Israel. If he voiced out the real problems facing Iran and tried to tackle these troubles, that would be like exposing his and his country's weakness. Which is a forbidden sin in the ME that would embolden Iran's Sunni enemies.

Anyhow, his weakness stands exposed. Instead of being an absolute ruler, the protests have exposed the soft under bellies of Iran. He then exposed another weakness. He and Khameini dithered for a while with indecision. Their resoluteness was missing. Their Sunni enemies have not missed up on that. Thus, at the present there is a potential for the Ahmadi-Khameini duo to deal very harshly with the protestors to ascertain their powers in the eyes of Iran's enemies. The degree to which they may invoke their ruthlessness will depend on how far they can push according to their calculations before the cracks of dissent starts showing among the security forces. They will push as they must but not too far. They may bring in more Palestinians, Lebanese Hizbollah forces and Iraqi Shias to bolster their forces but then they cannot bring too many of these before the Persian elements within the Baseej start to dissent.

They will also push very hard on the nuke front. Time is not on their side but power is not on Musavi's side either. And I believe him and his supporters will be crushed. To expedite on the nuke front, they may even outsource the nuke project to North Korea. In all probablity they may already done that.

In the mean time the Salafist Jundulla on the east and Arabic Salafists based in Aspahan territory are busy sharpening their blades. Interesting days a head.
Avram

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jun 2009 07:59

So its back to Battle of Qadissiyah? But this time for keeps to sweep Shiite threat to ME?

BTW,

The contribution of Iranians to the common Muslim civilization is succinctly summarized by Ibn Khaldun:

“ It is a remarkable fact that, with few exceptions, most Muslim scholars both in the religious and intellectual sciences have been non-Arabs ... Thus the founders of grammar were Sibawaih and, after him, al-Farisi and az-Zajjaj. All of whom were of Persian descent. They were brought up in the Arabic language and acquired knowledge of it through their upbringing and through contact with Arabs. They invented the rules [of grammar] and made it into a discipline for later generations. Most of the hadith scholars, who preserved traditions of the Prophet for the Muslims also were Persians, or Persian in language and breeding because the discipline was widely cultivated in Iraq and regions beyond. Furthermore, all the great jurists were Persians, as is well-known. The same applies to speculative theologians and to most of the Qu'ran commentators. Only the Persians engaged in the task of preserving knowledge and writing systematic scholarly works. Thus the truth of the statement of the Prophet becomes apparent, If learning were suspended at the highest parts of heaven the Persians would attain it... This situation continued in the cities as long as the Persians and Persian countries, the 'Iraq, Khurasan, and Transoxiana, retained their sedentary culture. ”

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 18 Jun 2009 12:33

amdavadi wrote:GOP is a lost cause, let them comeout with similar statement regarding saudis. When was the last time they saw free & fair election,and were able to march on the street?

People like you are missing the bigger picture. If the mullah regime goes down, and is replaced with a more moderate one, then Pakistan's strategic worth plummets. This is because Pakistan is able to exercise tremendous leverage by being the West's only route into Afghanistan/CentralAsia. Take away Pak's monopoly by having an Iran that's more normal and not constantly and reflexively anti-Western, then India wins bigtime. Pak will be reduced to its pre-1979 puny stature, as they will no longer have any leverage with the West. Even China's relations with Iran may suffer a setback.

So I definitely know who I'm rooting for in this current power struggle in Iran -- the Iranian moderates, and by extension, us. We have nothing to lose, and everything to gain.

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 18 Jun 2009 13:05

I have lived in iran & still have a dwelling there! people should note that President is a minuscule part of the system. Moderates are not challenging the system but election. System is unchallenged & will remain unchallenged.IRGC (gaurds) is entrenched in any & every part of the system & is most powerful organ of the system.The shadow fight is between raftzanjani & khamnei.. both are very shrewd. Iran might move two notches less or more to ISLAMIC state, does not make a difference.A revolution is out of question like that of 1979( I was present there). Hold horses of your hopes for a democratic set up like that of india. To qualify for ANY election, you have to be qualified by"Khobergan"(Nomonated 50% by leader & other 50% by chief of justice dept again a top cleric.) There lies the crux of the matter.What difference it makes if "You have to be extreme extreme extreme islamic" or "extreme extreme extreme extreme extreme islamic"

to qualify

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Jun 2009 13:10

asprinzl wrote:If Sunni Salafi forces with or without the Pakiban joining forces attempt a "final solution" over the thirty five million or so Paki Shiites, a nuke armed Iran would provide a strategic insurance policy that may prevent such aa genocide. Short of that there is a real possibility of the Paki Shia facing a potential genocide.

The trouble with Ahmadinejad is that his saber-rattling had been against the wrong power-Israel. This is the Middle East. You cannot show weakness. More so among Muslim nations. If you show weakness, that will be your end. For Ahmadinejad, he can only show off his prowess and Iran's power. Hence, his saber rattling at Israel. If he voiced out the real problems facing Iran and tried to tackle these troubles, that would be like exposing his and his country's weakness. Which is a forbidden sin in the ME that would embolden Iran's Sunni enemies.They will also push very hard on the nuke front. Time is not on their side but power is not on Musavi's side either. And I believe him and his supporters will be crushed. To expedite on the nuke front, they may even outsource the nuke project to North Korea. In all probablity they may already done that.

In the mean time the Salafist Jundulla on the east and Arabic Salafists based in Aspahan territory are busy sharpening their blades. Interesting days a head.
Avram

I read two reasons here, why Iran's rhetoric and action is directed at Israel.
1. Leadership of the Muslim world: Without this goal, you are throwing in the towel. It is expand or perish. You need to show, you are doing something to expand Dar-ul-Islam or fighting against the 'injustices against Muslims'. The competition is however with the Sunnis.
2. The nuke bomb is against Iran's Sunni rivals, and not against Israel. If used against Israel, Iranians know they will be finished off the face of the earth. It does offer some protection against Israel's response to terrorism directed against it by Iran's proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. The funny thing is, that the first policy both support Iranian leadership of Islam, but also acts as an impediment against gathering sufficient nuke technology.

The question arises, what happens when the Sunni onslaught on Iran and Shi'ism becomes too much to ignore reality. Would Iran then move from contesting leadership of the Muslim world for Shi'ism to self-preservation? Would it then be willing to bury its artificial enmity towards Israel?

The American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has provided Iran some crucial victories against Sunni pressure. Was it intended, as a means of balance of power? Is the propping up of Pakistan, also intended to check Iran, also as a balance of power? Why were Pakistani nukes tolerated? Was it at the behest of Saudis by Saudi-friendly Bushes and Cheneys?

What disturbs Israel is perhaps not so much the Iranian bomb, but the fact that Iran sponsors terrorism in Israel through their proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah! The bomb makes it all the more harder to retaliate. So the desired outcome for Israel is to force a mode change in Iran from contesting leadership to self-preservation. That is possible only if the Sunni onslaught on Iran increases and becomes an issue, the primary issue! Now how to do that, is a question to which Israel already knows the answer. An Iran in the second mode can be a great ally of Israel, even if it is a secret ally.

The Pakistani bombs are a danger to both Iran and India. Iran is powerless in ensuring Shia security in Pakistan and has to see how their sectarian brothers get slaughtered day in and day out, how Shias are being forced to convert to Deoband at the point of the gun. And Iran is powerless! Pakistani bombs would remain the deterrent for Iran also. The only way to get rid of Pakistani bombs is to get USA to change policy on Pakistan, something possible only if USA is assured of another route into Central Asia.

It is also worth noting that nothing has damaged Iran's chances of getting the leadership of the Islamic world, and in fact damaged Iran's chances of survival, than PRC's blatant give-away of nukes to Iran. By controlling Pakistan's nukes, PRC in fact blackmails both India and Iran into a PRC-friendly posture.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 18 Jun 2009 17:23

Vinod Ji wrote:I have lived in iran & still have a dwelling there! people should note that President is a minuscule part of the system. Moderates are not challenging the system but election. System is unchallenged & will remain unchallenged.IRGC (gaurds) is entrenched in any & every part of the system & is most powerful organ of the system.The shadow fight is between raftzanjani & khamnei.. both are very shrewd. Iran might move two notches less or more to ISLAMIC state, does not make a difference.A revolution is out of question like that of 1979( I was present there). Hold horses of your hopes for a democratic set up like that of india. To qualify for ANY election, you have to be qualified by"Khobergan"(Nomonated 50% by leader & other 50% by chief of justice dept again a top cleric.) There lies the crux of the matter.What difference it makes if "You have to be extreme extreme extreme islamic" or "extreme extreme extreme extreme extreme islamic" to qualify

You're missing the fact that Moussavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Montazeri are forming an alliance against Khamenei and his flunky Ahmedinejad. If Khamenei can be ousted and replaced with someone more moderate, then big changes could happen in the system.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 18 Jun 2009 18:07

This why I like BRF, thanks vindodji, the stupids in CNN and MSNBC are proclaiming that this (so called) revolution is earth shattering thing. I just cant believe the talking heads can be so stupid on TV.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 18 Jun 2009 18:22

Sanjay M wrote:You're missing the fact that Moussavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Montazeri are forming an alliance against Khamenei and his flunky Ahmedinejad. If Khamenei can be ousted and replaced with someone more moderate, then big changes could happen in the system.

Even in that case, I do not think Rafsanjani and Co will do something like a western stooges that we see typically in East Europe and erstwhile Soviet countries. The fight in ME is to make sure that Iran does not dominate the area. Iran is the only country that I beleive has some chance of playing the strategic game due to its past civilizational strength.

Vinod ji - That was a good post. Without reading reams of news print, I am able to get the summary of Iran situation.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jun 2009 19:47

I see three choices for Iran:
1) Become more extreme Shia to consolidate their position. Extremism is like the nuke. The more extremist the more West rushes to prop up the regime for stability.
2) Fall to Sunni Islam again like in 641 AD
3) Throw away the Islamic religious leaders and de-Islamise to regain the crown of Middle East. This could be long term.

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 18 Jun 2009 20:40

Mosavi isnt moderate whoever thinks supporting mosavi is supporting to moderate Iranian
govt is smoking something strong.Please go read where musavi stands, on all the issues related to Foriegn
policies & Iranian standing.Those who are looking for moderate to take over iranian govt to reduce
pakis worth in western eyes are forgetting same moderate Shah govt in Iran was hostile to India
during 71, & always sided with Islamic brother pakistan in internationl Fora.

It hasnt stop uncle in past & in the future to work with ruthless regims,
including taliban when it servetheir purpose.It wont stop uncle from working
whoever is in power in Iran.

Bigger scheme of things pakis are way down the list that they dont even get mention when
big boys are sitting on the table.

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 18 Jun 2009 20:44

Sanjay M wrote: You're missing the fact that Moussavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Montazeri are forming an alliance against Khamenei and his flunky Ahmedinejad. If Khamenei can be ousted and replaced with someone more moderate, then big changes could happen in the system.

Sanjay M:
You think there is a MODERATE? I don't see one. Less provocative may be!
Please do Trust me for I know what I am talking about. Actually there was a time when I knew nuts & bolts inside out of the regime. I have dealt with the regimes of the names you have mentioned & some more.The only honorable name there is Montazeri. Rest are cleric-politicians.Khanenei is actually part of the system as others are. BTW Ahamadinejad is most honest (as in money wise) but is a pawn.THE ACTUAL GAMEPLAN IS BEING PLAYED IN GHOM

ADDED LATER:

Iran is pragmatic enough to know they can never be the leader of Islamic world. (You have to know them to appreciate deep strategic thinking they have! To keep economy afloat with a ten years war & almost the whole world against you is easily said then done with oil [email protected] barrels a day & oil prices @ 12-25 usd. with practically no other resources. Iran is the only country I have seen fighting against the drugs with sincerity to the core at a time even when they needed foreign exchange desperately & could have used the money by just being a transit point.) But they do not want an Islamic leader regime which is far far far ahead of them. They have always divided the Arab world & will keep on doing so. There influence on Shia world is unassailable. Even in the heart of Islamic land. This fact alone keeps all the Arab states on their toes.

edited later to put 2-2.5 m instead of 200-250 k

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 18 Jun 2009 21:00

Vinod Ji wrote:THE ACTUAL GAMEPLAN IS BEING PLAYED IN GHOM

So who is Montazeri up against in Qom?

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 18 Jun 2009 21:23

RajeshA wrote:
Vinod Ji wrote:THE ACTUAL GAMEPLAN IS BEING PLAYED IN GHOM
So who is Montazeri up against in Qom?

HE is not against anybody or anybody is against him. He is the second most senior & most respected cleric in Shia.(& BTW a broken man but not a broken cleric & trust me it will not be the last time when he has been used!)

Also let me clear one thinking of IRAN not of one politician but of the nation.. Come what may they will have nuclear device. They believe for SHIAS & by extention Persian civilization to survive,it is imperative. They can be more stuborn than even the north Koreans.

Surya · Post by **Surya** » 18 Jun 2009 21:40

To be fair

Admadinajad is the best politician of them all - and Mousavi is not the most progressive.

Apparently Ahmadinajad slaughtered the rest in the debates.

Vinod

Thanks for your info. One hears about their strategic thinking but is hard pressed to understand it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jun 2009 21:47

So Vinod they have taken over Shiaism and made it Persianised Islam? looks like there was time during the Safavids that Shiaism was the rage what with them giving Chagtai Humayun shelter for fifteen years and all the Bahmani kingdoms in Deccan. The end of Safavids and the Sunnification of Mughals in India ended the Shia moment of glory.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jun 2009 22:12

Updates from Nightwatch

June 15, 2009

June 16, 2009

june 17, 2009

has this gem:

Update on the voter fraud allegations. The Guardian reported today that results from the 12 June presidential election posted today the Ayandeh website indicate that turnouts of over 100 percent were recorded in at least 30 towns; 26 provinces across the country showed participation levels either unheard of in democratic elections or in excess of the number of registered voters; and at least 200 polling stations recorded participation rates of 95 percent or above. Also, former Iranian interior minister, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, said yesterday that 70 polling stations returned more completed ballot papers than the number of locally eligible voters.

Comment: The above data are the first details of the potential enormity of the electoral fraud, which pales Mugabe’s stratagems in Zimbabwe. Analysts have suggested that, if there was fraud, the fraud program had to be massive, coordinated and nationwide in order to produce a landslide. They added that it is difficult to maintain security on such a scale, ergo the Ahmadi-Nejad victory probably was legitimate. That was the initial NightWatch assessment—nationwide fraud is difficult to keep secret.

These new data, accepting them at face value, shed new light on this analysis. The Ministry of Interior and the Revolutionary Guards have the nationwide presence to organize and sustain a massive fraud. They also have the motive – Ahmadi-Nejad is one of their own. There were thousands of polling places. If two thirds of them reported more votes than living voters, a landslide could be engineered by decentralized fraud.

Most less developed countries rely on the Ministry of Education to supervise elections because schools are the polling places, even in the US. Relatively few countries rely on or trust the national police, i.e., the Interior Ministry. Even Education workers can be suborned, so that is no guarantee of integrity, but it looks better.

The usual tattle tale of voter fraud is a vote count that exceeds the number of living and registered voters and voter registration rolls that include a large number of dead people. This usually is the result of excessive exuberance or enthusiasm by local operatives. For example, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Indonesia at various times in their pasts and many communist states were notorious for this practice. This might be the undoing of the election.

Lengthy Note on Analysis of Instability.

The Associated Press reported the following snippets about the demonstrations in Iran.

- “… It's not just young, liberal rich kids anymore: Whole families, taxi drivers, even conservative women in black chadors are joining Iran's opposition street protests. “

-“…support is growing to include grandmothers, government employees and hotel clerks.”

- "This (the Mousavi opposition) is completely different to 1999. That was between the students and the government. This is between the people and the government. This time it is all of Iran. This is a historic movement.".

- an accountant who declined to be identified said she joined the protests because she wanted her vote to count.

The key question most news services are trying to answer is whether the protests will lead to a change of government leadership or will sputter and die. The answer to that question determines whether a spontaneous uprising can convert into a self-sustaining political movement. It was the same question that analysts asked about the strikes at the Gdansk shipyard in 1980 that morphed into the Solidarnosc movement.

Readers might be on the lookout for the chief indicators of the transition from episodic protests to a self-sustaining, organized opposition capable of bringing down the leadership. All were present in the evolution of Solidarnosc. The event phenomenology is identical, despite the cultural differences.

First, a series of demonstrations mounted by a single occupational, functional or ethnic group almost never transitions into a nationwide movement. These demonstrations are responses to stress and the government usually has reserves of law enforcers and incentives to relieve the stress. Carrots and sticks usually succeed in ending them.

Second is geographic distribution. Protests in capital cities are normal. Power always resides in the capital. Instability is centripetal in that opposition groups that fail to take power or influence the power holders in the capital fail. If opposition starts in the countryside and spreads, it must move to the cities or it will fail. Multiple outbreaks outside the capital are a sign of widespread discontent which is essential for a sustained, effective opposition movement.

Third, political instability always begins on the periphery. The disenfranchised in the center of Tehran, the university students whose ballots were discarded are on the political periphery of power, as are the disenfranchised in Azerbaijan, Sistan Baluchistan and other cities outside Tehran. The government always has a harder time suppressing discontent on the geographic periphery than in the capital. Thus unrest in multiple outlying population centers represents a serious threat that governments usually underestimate.

Fourth and most important, stakeholders in the existing economic system must join the opposition portests. In an earlier era, one would write that those with the most to lose from change of political leaders must join in order to a movement to transition to self sustaining status. In Iran in 1979, when the bazaaris joined the ayatollahs in advocating the overthrow of the Shah, the Shah was overthrown and fled for his life. The clerics alone lacked the clout to effect political change.

Fifth, a group leadership must emerge that can coordinate with other groups in other cities. Groups will send or publish statements of solidarity with each other, building strength through unified action. Those kinds of publicity are the signature that more complex organization, leadership and cohesion are evolving.

The government leaders usually panic and then overreact by using excessive force and in effect bring themselves down, if the government collapses or concedes.

Finally the action will progress through phases of under-reaction, over-reaction and concession and then recycle.

Applying the above to Iran. The first days of the demonstrations looked like sour grapes among the youth and urban dwellers. That encouraged the government to under-react in hopes it would allow the demonstrations to burn themselves out.

When they continued on 13 and 14 June, TV news showed pictures of uniformed men beating unarmed people with sticks. Nevertheless, the crowds forced the uniforms to retreat. This was an over-reaction, serving up beatings as a response to voter fraud claims. Governments do stupid things like this, when an immediate call for investigations or appointment of a respected commission might have pulled the rug out from under the protestors.

In the past two days the composition of the demonstrators has diversified. That is the significance of the bullets above. They show that average, everyday folk have begun to register their concerns about dishonesty. Loss of support among this demographic cohort is perilous for an administration.

The most significant new information is that professional people have joined blue-collar working people. If businesses start to close and small business owners join the protests, especially outside Tehran, the administration must fall.

The government already made one set of concessions when it approved the Guardian Council order to recount votes. That concession was not enough, signified by the continuation of the protests. Thus, the crisis management cycle is now reset. The government is now assessing whether its actions to date will placate the crowds. The demonstrations have spread. New cohorts have joined, which include stakeholders in the economy – more important than the political leaders actually.

The next step for the opposition will be characterized by greater organization and communication outside individual cities. Without leadership that can coordinate the timing and location of protests, the movement will not succeed. It is not clear that Mousavi’s political organization is yet willing to take the risks of failure associated with that leadership role.

{Now we know how twitter.com plays into this role for coordination!}

The authority and geographic dispersion of political/religious leaders calling for the votes to be counted against the rolls hints that some kind of leadership structure is forming. There are few public signs of a national organization forming, but it is early yet. If protests persist, that will emerge.

The next step for the government will be an attempt at a wider and harsher crackdown, almost certainly. Khamenei might try to finesse the unrest by skipping the next over-reaction step, though the Revolutionary Guards will oppose a finesse move without more head cracking. The finesse move would be aimed at dispersing demonstrations by agreeing to allow ballot boxes to be compared against voter registration rolls, a major concession and gamble. If this occurs, Khamenei would show he is willing to sacrifice Ahmadi-Nejad for the sake of the theocracy, assuming the Guardian reports are accurate.

Such a concession is more likely now that the protests are diversifying. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is most likely getting worried that a systemic change is threatened on his watch. Those worries will make a leader prone to try to settle things as quickly as he can and prone to make colossal blunders.

The theocracy itself is not challenged, only the honesty of the processes it set up. Its feet are being held to the fire, as it were. If the protests continue, which now seems likely for the first time based on the evidence, the theocracy will undergo significant change by becoming accountable to the electorate in an unprecedented fashion for Iran, at least for a short while. That is tentatively and potentially tonight’s good news.

The last highlight is the Persian character showing through. The Persians, Persianised Isalm and that led to the Abbasid dynasty. later teh Safavid dynasty adopted Persianised Shiaism. They dont overthrow the theocracy but change it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Jun 2009 23:30

Some quotes to confirm Vinodji's views on Iran.

New York Review: Divided Iran on the Eve

Jamal K. Malik · Post by **Jamal K. Malik** » 18 Jun 2009 23:54

'India blocked its airspace for NKorean plane to Iran at US request'
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Worl ... 672100.cms
Iran accuses US of role as election crisis deepens
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Worl ... 670112.cms

Vinod Ji · Post by **Vinod Ji** » 19 Jun 2009 00:27

ramana wrote:So Vinod they have taken over Shiaism and made it Persianised Islam? looks like there was time during the Safavids that Shiaism was the rage what with them giving Chagtai Humayun shelter for fifteen years and all the Bahmani kingdoms in Deccan. The end of Safavids and the Sunnification of Mughals in India ended the Shia moment of glory.

rammana my biggest advantage or disadvantage is that I have not studied their history much.(Hell I have not studied my own). All my observations are from the interactions I had there.So I am unable to comment except they do think that they are the leaders of Shia and have proved it with their influnce in iraq /lebnan/bahrin/INDIA etc.. where ever there is substantial Shia population.. If you remember Raftzanjani's visit to India during his presidency & his actions spoke Loud & Clear pragmatism.

I do have faded memory from my 6th year studies that hamyoon had to change his religion to shia in order to get help & it was only aurangzeb's time that they went back to sunnism!!(AFAICR but may be wrong on this)

Added later:

BTW in my mind there is no doubt that there was voting fraud at unheard scales in the worlds.. as was earlier one last time.. realist person would have put it some where 30-40 % for Ahmadinijad / 25-35% for mousvi. AHMADINEJAD IS POPULAR NO DOUBT IN THAT but not popular enough to get over 60% with ex irgc chief in the fray! He may well would have won in the second run!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jun 2009 00:53

That New York Review article says that Khameni was concerned that it was important to ensure a that "a pigeon wasnt sent among hawks" looking at TSP and the Iraq.

Aslo if the fight is among the back room boys (Khameni vs Khatami et al) what interests do they represent? What does each side want Iran to be?

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 19 Jun 2009 01:02

Aslo if the fight is among the back room boys (Khameni vs Khatami et al) what interests do they represent? What does each side want Iran to be?

To delay any hasty action by Netanyahu, as he will be advised to hold till a winner emerges from Ahemadinajad vs New comer.

Besides Iranains are far smarter than their camel riders neigbors.

Actually uncle should be grateful to Iranians as the media forgot about Kim ill Jong

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 19 Jun 2009 01:15

Actually uncle should be grateful to Iranians as the media forgot about Kim ill Jong

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 19 Jun 2009 07:56

Don't worry, Kim is ready and willing to do things to bring himself back into the spotlight, in the event he is forgotten.

Anyway, the point is not whether Moussavi is perfect -- neither was Khatami a raging liberal -- the main thing is that Khamenei gets dislodged. The Iranian police state needs to be disrupted.

After that, the will of the people can take things to much better places. Eventually, they will be much more pro-Western than before, and most importantly, Pak's monopoly would be broken. Anti-authoritarian elements would have to embrace the West more closely out of political necessity, in order to keep the authoritarian/fundamentalist forces at bay.

asprinzl · Post by **asprinzl** » 19 Jun 2009 09:57

Ramana,
I would say that the sunni-fication of South Asian Muslim mass probably is the biggest disaster for the Shia branch of Islam. Imagine that if South Asian Islam had remained Shia, there would be a massive contiguos Shia Muslims from Southern Iraq through Iran, passing into Pakistan and then into India and ending in Bangladesh. All told with a population totalling almost eight hundred million strong. The Islamic agenda of the world would be a Shia agenda. However, in such a scenarion I doubt that Iran or Qom would be the center of gravity if Shiaism. Most likely, India would be the center of gravity.
Avram

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 20 Jun 2009 03:38

This Khamenei nutcase really makes me feel ill:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/20/world ... 0iran.html

Guys like him really deserve a humbling.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 20 Jun 2009 11:11

Paper No. 3228
03-June-2009

Iran Suspects Violence in Zahidan is Planned in Pakistan

By B. Raman

The Iranian authorities reportedly suspect that the May 28 explosion in the second biggest Shia mosque in Zahidan, capital of Sistan-Balochistan, the Sunni majority Baloch province of Iran, was planned by the Jundullah, a Sunni extremist organisation, from its sanctuary in Pakistan's Balochistan province. They claim that the three members of the Jundullah, who were executed in public after the suicide explosion, confessed during their interrogation that they brought the explosive device from Pakistan and gave it to the suicide bomber.

2. While the Iranian authorities accuse the Jundullah of acting at the behest of the US and Israel, other reports indicate that the Jundullah cadres are trained by the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ), a Sunni extremist organisation of Pakistan, in its training camps in South Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. The LEJ, whose involvement along with Al Qaeda was suspected in the huge explosion in the Marriott Hotel of Islamabad in September last year, has been operating jointly with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) headed by Baitullah Mehsud of South Waziristan.

3. The Iranian authorities, who have officially taken up with the Pakistani authorities their information about the terrorist infrastructure of the Jundullah in Pakistani territory, allege that Abdulmalek Rigi, whom they accuse of being the Amir of the Jundullah, operates from Pakistani territory.

4. Citing the Fars News Agency of Iran, the "Dawn" of Karachi reported on June 1, 2009, as follows: ' The chief of the Iranian armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, said Iran had located the base of the group and informed the Pakistani Government of Abdulmalek Rigi’s position.....So far Jundullah has claimed responsibility for a dozen terrorist operations in Iran, however according to the FNA, they have managed to escape punishment by crossing into Pakistan. Tehran has warned Islamabad that it has the power and military means to trace and hunt down terrorist groups in Pakistan if such activity is not stopped by Pakistan. Since the suicide attack, Iran has closed down its border with Pakistan." The Pakistan Foreign Office has denied the "Dawn" report about the closing of the border.

5. The " News" of June 1, 2009, carried the following report by its well-informed correspondent Amir Mir: "The rising terrorist activities of the Pakistan-based militant organisation, Jundullah (Soldiers of God) threatens not only the Pak-Iran diplomatic ties but also the future of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which was signed on May 22 by President Asif Zardari and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Tehran.
According to well-placed diplomatic sources in Islamabad, Tehran has lodged a strong protest with Islamabad over the failure of its law enforcement agencies to dismantle the Jundullah network in Pakistan, which has claimed responsibility for the May 28 deadly suicide attack inside the Ameer al-Momenin mosque in Zahedan that killed 25 people and wounded 125 others. The sources said Iranian officials had expressed their deep concern over the failure of the Pakistani authorities to proceed against the Jundullah network in Pakistan despite having been given specific intelligence. The Pakistani Ambassador was told that the Zahedan suicide attack could have been averted had Islamabad acted in time on the Iranian intelligence information.The Iranian authorities had reportedly told the Pakistani Ambassador that the three terrorists (Haji Noti Zehi, Gholam Rasoul Shahi Zehi and Zabihollah Naroui), hanged publicly on May 30 in Zahedan for their alleged participation in the mosque bombing, had confessed to illegally bringing explosives from Pakistan into Iran and giving them to the main person behind the suicide attack. Diplomatic circles in Islamabad say Tehran's concern over the growing terrorist activities of Jundullah, across the border in Iran, could be gauged from the fact that its Ambassador to Pakistan Mashallah Shakeri had addressed an unusual press conference in Islamabad on March 20, accusing Pakistan of allowing its soil to be used against Iran and demanding concrete steps to contain its activities. While claiming that the Jundullah network was located inside the Balochistan province, Shakeri had asked Islamabad to curb its anti-Iran activities by taking a decisive action against its leadership. The Iranian Ambassador had given broad hints at that time that an Iranian diplomat, who had disappeared in Peshawar in 2008, could also have been kidnapped by Jundullah. In his reaction the same day, a Pakistani Foreign Office spokesman had stated that Islamabad was determined that the Pakistani soil would not be allowed to be used by Jundullah in any manner to destabilise the Iranian government. However, the diplomatic circles in Islamabad say the Iranian authorities had warned the Pakistani Ambassador to Tehran on May 30 that Islamabad's failure to act against the Jundullah network in Balochistan could also jeopardise the future of the recently-signed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project. They pointed out that the Pakistani and the Iranian Presidents had only signed the initial agreement after 14 years of delayed negotiations and the most crucial gas sales and purchase agreement had not yet been finalised."

6. In the meanwhile, the Jundullah of Iran has disseminated the following statement: "Ayatollah Khamenaei, the supreme leader of Iran, officially interpreted the natural death of Fatema, the daughter of the holy Prophet, as martyrdom, thus justifying the actions of those who have organised Omar Denunciation Ceremonies. The ceremonies began about two months ago in Baluchistan where the majority of the people are Sunnis and resulted in widespread conflicts between Baluch Sunnis and Iranian security forces. The tension mounted when the People's Resistance Movement of Iran, Jondollah, initiated a bomb blast in a mosque that was dominated by the security forces and Iranian militia. The fanatics supported by the militia and security forces published huge posters in the streets and began denunciation speeches with mobile speakers in moving cars in different streets of Zahedan. Jondollah warned these groups to halt their offending ceremonies to one billion Moslems throughout the world but they ignored the warnings and continued displaying posters in their street gatherings. Other Baluch and Sunni leaders requested the Iranian authorities to prevent these provocative ceremonies but they did not stop. The Jondollah bombed the mosque that has become the centre of various provocations and the headquarters of these ceremonies after all other peaceful requests were exhausted. Ayatollah Khamenaei said a few weeks ago in Kurdistan that any action that may create divisions between Shias and Sunnis is treason, but now it is certain that he was behind all the offences that have been officially made against the second Caliph."

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: [email protected])

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There are grounds for co-operation between the Taliban, AQ and the anglo saxons. The Jundullah may be a joint ops between them.

arun · Post by **arun** » 20 Jun 2009 13:42

Jamal K. Malik wrote:'India blocked its airspace for NKorean plane to Iran at US request'

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Worl ... 672100.cms

From the PTI via TOI article posted by you:

………......... "Last August, India responded to a US request and blocked its airspace to a North Korean plane delivering illicit cargo to Iran. That plane had to turn back," Congressman Ed Royce said during a Congressional hearing on North Korea………................

That nicely ties in, both content and timing wise to this August 2008 story in the Indian Express :

India doesn’t let North Korea plane overfly to Iran

Pranab Dhal Samanta
Posted: Friday , Aug 08, 2008 at 0145 hrs IST

India this afternoon withdrew its permission for a North Korean plane to overfly Indian airspace on its way to Iran, just before it could take off from Mandalay in Myanmar where it had made a stopover. This, sources have told The Indian Express, was done after instructions from the Prime Minister’s Office this morning. ………...............

Indian Express

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 20 Jun 2009 20:14

the crooked clerics' days are numbered:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/16/world ... leric.html

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 20 Jun 2009 20:29

Bomb explodes in Tehran as protests grow violent

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... TopStories

I think this is being done by the government to thwart the protests by blaming them for the blast. Khamenaei had warned yesterday that terrorists could use the situation and that any bomb blast that would happen will be the responsibility of the protesters. This is what is said exactly. That sounds pretty suspicious.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 20 Jun 2009 21:24

fareed zakaria on iran:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/06/ ... index.html

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 21 Jun 2009 15:46

Hey, everyone -- look, it's your friendly neighborhood mullahs whose gunmen have shot some poor female student in the throat:

sunnyP · Post by **sunnyP** » 21 Jun 2009 18:15

The video of the poor girl being shot is deeply disturbing.

For god sake this young women was standing with her father and was nowhere near the demos.

The man who decided to kill this innocent bystander did so out of sheer hatred for women.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 21 Jun 2009 19:20

It's these basij types who are the most violent, as they don't really have any accountability structure. They are like the Talib recruits in Pak - just fanatical zealots.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/21/opinion/21tehran.html

I don’t know where this uprising is leading. I do know some police units are wavering. That commander talking about his family was not alone. There were other policemen complaining about the unruly Basijis. Some security forces just stood and watched. “All together, all together, don’t be scared,” the crowd shouted.

mmasand · Post by **mmasand** » 21 Jun 2009 21:04

BBC journo booted out for promoting unrest....someone is scared of propaganda

Omar · Post by **Omar** » 21 Jun 2009 21:10

India should deal with whoever holds the power in Iran, and we should build strong strategic relations with them. It makes the task for India infinitely easier, if we don't have to feel that we have to deal with an international pariah and loud-mouth, when we deal with the Iranian leader. As such Moussavi would be preferred, but in the end we still have to deal with them as friends.

I think India might have congratulated Ahmadinejad at the recent SCO meeting, though I can't find specific mention on press releases covering the SCO and BRIC meetings on the PIB webpage. This is in contrast to Hamid Karzai who was among first to publically congratulate Ahmadinejad. Maybe PIB and MEA are trying to downplay their previous support?

Omar · Post by **Omar** » 21 Jun 2009 21:13

Thirty years ago, during the demonstrations that led to the Shah’s downfall, one of the dominant images was scenes of uniformed soldiers firing live ammunition at protesters. This week, Iran’s clerics seem determined, at least, not to repeat that historic mistake. They remember that the daily news coverage of the Shah’s soldiers shooting and killing unarmed protesters precipitated the collapse of the regime.
Instead, bearded plainclothes militiamen have been attacking and harassing the demonstrators in Tehran this past week.

Link: http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/n ... basij.html

Omar · Post by **Omar** » 21 Jun 2009 21:30

It's these basij types who are the most violent, as they don't really have any accountability structure. They are like the Talib recruits in Pak - just fanatical zealots.

Some are but we shouldn't view the clergy or the Revolutionary Guards (who the Basij are subordinate to) as monolithic. Senior commanders in the Revolutionary Guard are handpicked by Khamenei and loyal but the others-over 100,000-aren't necessarily. For example, even Mohsen Rezaei [one of the opposition candidates] who was the longest-serving senior commander of the Revolutionary Guard has voiced opposition to Ahmadinejad's election. He has been vocal opponent of Ahmadinejad's anti semetism during his presidency. If the Revolutionary Guards are ordered to take violent action against Iranian men, women, children; we will probably see wide scale desertion. It probably wont' come down to that because, while the protests have received lots of international media attention, people are not calling for a wholesale revolution as they were in 1979. Nobody is saying 'enqelab.' Many people still believe the Islamic Republic has important democratically elected institutions such as Majlis. What they want to see is the unelected institutions, such as Guardian Council, authority seriously limited.

Sanjay M · Post by **Sanjay M** » 21 Jun 2009 21:48

When elections are being rigged, observers expelled or denied entry, and these unsecured mobile ballot boxes are being used, then what is the meaning of an elected Majlis?

It seems then that Khamenei can misuse the state machinery in any way he likes, to then subvert the entire system as a whole. When the very voting process is in doubt, then everything goes out the window.

His status as a papal-style divine spokesman is now gone. He's just a crooked politician, trying to invoke the name of God to justify anything he does.

Revolutionary Guards are just a bunch of zealots, and I don't see there's any indication they believe in democracy, or anything beyond their Ayatollah masters. They're independent of the actual military, which seems to make them a parallel and less accountable institution. That's not a real government system, that's a mockery designed to serve the interests of a few.

Omar · Post by **Omar** » 21 Jun 2009 21:54

Still doesn't change the fact that people aren't looking to rubbish the entire system. The outpouring of support for Moussavi is remarkable, but he isn't Mujibur Rehman revolutionary because he is a product of the system. He was after all vetted and allowed to run for presidency by the guardian council who is subordinate to the supreme leader.

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/m ... efault.stm